Asia Daily: February 10, 2025
Trump confirms talks with Xi since his inauguration. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed he has spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping since taking office, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement amid another round in the U.S.-China trade war. In a Super Bowl interview with Fox News, Trump stated he communicated with Xi and his team, discussing his strong personal relationship with the Chinese leader. He did not disclose when the conversation occurred or its details. Kawala Xie, South China Morning Post, February 11
Philippines kicks off election campaigning amid VP impeachment drama. Campaigning for the Philippines' midterm elections has begun amid political turmoil following the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte. Her feud with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has divided their once-powerful alliance, making the elections a high-stakes battle ahead of the 2028 presidential race. The midterms will determine 317 congressional seats and 12 key Senate positions, crucial for Duterte’s impeachment trial in June. Karen Lema, Reuters, February 10
China says a visit by Cook Islands prime minister isn’t meant to antagonize others in South Pacific. China stated that Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown’s visit to Beijing is not aimed at undermining any nation in the South Pacific, despite concerns from New Zealand. The trip is seen as part of China’s efforts to strengthen ties with Pacific island nations, potentially diminishing U.S. and allied influence. New Zealand expressed frustration over a lack of consultation on agreements Brown plans to sign. AP News, February 10
China's foreign minister to visit Britain on Thursday for talks. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Britain on Thursday for discussions with Foreign Secretary David Lammy, signaling a thaw in diplomatic relations. Talks will cover international security and the war in Ukraine. The visit revives the UK-China Strategic Dialogue, last held in 2018 but halted due to COVID-19 and security concerns. It follows British finance minister Rachel Reeves' recent trip to China. Andrew MacAskill, Reuters, February 10
Ishiba discloses strategy he used in summit with mercurial Trump. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba revealed that he carefully avoided disagreeing with U.S. President Donald Trump and refrained from raising sensitive issues, such as revising the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, during their first summit on Feb. 7. Aware of Trump’s aversion to confrontation, Ishiba adjusted his usual meandering speaking style to be more direct and strategic. Ishiba also acknowledged receiving frequent notes urging him to manage time effectively as the media portion of the meeting ran longer than expected. Kei Kobayashi, The Asahi Shimbun, February 10
South Korea prosecutors indict 63 over courthouse rampage by Yoon supporters. South Korean prosecutors have indicted 63 individuals for storming the Seoul Western District Court on January 19 in protest of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol's detention. The demonstrators, who broke through a police cordon and vandalized court property, face charges including aggravated obstruction of official duty, destruction of property, attempted arson, and assault. Jack Kim, Reuters, February 10
China complains to Japan about 'negative' China references in Japan, US communique. China's foreign ministry has lodged a complaint with Japan over "negative" mentions of China in a joint statement issued after a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The statement opposed China's military actions in the South and East China Seas and supported Taiwan's participation in international organizations. Beijing accused the communique of interfering in its internal affairs and escalating regional tensions. Colleen Howe and Liz Lee, Reuters, February 10
Taiwanese students arrive in Beijing for latest Ma Ying-jeou Foundation tour. Around 40 university students from Taiwan arrived in Beijing for a five-day exchange organized by the Ma Ying-jeou Foundation, led by its executive director Hsiao Hsu-tsen. The visit aims to support cross-strait youth interaction amid strained Taiwan-China relations. Speculation surrounds a possible third meeting between Ma and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, Feb. 10
15-year term sought for man over pipe bomb attack on ex-PM Kishida. Prosecutors have demanded a 15-year prison sentence for Ryuji Kimura, 25, accused of attempted murder after throwing a pipe bomb at then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during an election event in Wakayama in April 2023. The attack was described as a "malicious act of terrorism" that could have had large political consequences. Forensic analysis found the device capable of causing lethal injuries, but Kimura denied intent to kill, claiming he only sought public attention. Kyodo News, February 10
Ruling party's floor leader calls for amending Constitution, extra budget. South Korea’s ruling People Power Party floor leader, Kweon Seong-dong, has urged constitutional reforms to decentralize presidential and parliamentary power, calling it a fundamental solution to the nation’s political crisis. He also advocated for electoral reforms, including redistricting, even at the cost of shortening lawmakers’ terms. Additionally, Kweon advocated for an extra budget to reverse Democratic Party-led cuts, prioritizing economic growth, support for vulnerable groups, and strengthening the artificial intelligence sector. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, February 11
Goals, Delays and Mystery: International Football Coverage on Korean Central Television. North Korea's state broadcaster, Korean Central Television (KCTV), has commenced airing the 2024-2025 English Premier League season as of January 13, 2025. Historically, KCTV has broadcast only a limited selection of matches, often with delays and frequent repeats, and typically does not show the season's conclusion. International sports coverage on KCTV is one of the few instances where state television does not convey overt propaganda messages. Political considerations influence the selection of teams and players featured; for example, during the 2022 World Cup, South Korean matches were excluded until the team's elimination, and in 2023, KCTV labeled the South Korean women's football team as "puppets" during Asian Games coverage. While sports broadcasting on KCTV has increased, events are often aired days or weeks after they occur. The competitive international sports rights market and North Korea's limited broadcasting infrastructure may contribute to these delays. Martyn Williams and Kaitlyn King, 38 North, February 10
How Trump 2.0 Immigration Policies Could Strain Modi's U.S. Strategy. The U.S.-India relationship faces challenges as the Trump administration proposes changes to H-1B visas and plans to deport undocumented Indian immigrants. Indians have historically received up to 75% of H-1B visas annually, and any reduction could impact the Indian American community and bilateral ties. Additionally, with an estimated 725,000 undocumented Indians in the U.S., increased deportations may strain diplomatic relations. Proactive collaboration between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump is essential to address these issues and prevent immigration tensions from affecting broader policy areas. Katherine B. Hadda, CSIS, February 10
Marriages in China Crash, Portending Deeper Demographic Woes. In 2024, China recorded 6.1 million marriages, a 20.5% decrease from the previous year and the lowest since 1986. This decline exacerbates concerns over the nation's demographic challenges, including a decreasing birth rate and an aging population. Factors contributing to fewer marriages include economic uncertainties, high living costs, and changing societal attitudes toward marriage and family. Despite government initiatives to promote marriage and childbearing, such as financial incentives and educational programs, these efforts have yet to reverse the trend. The continued drop in marriage rates is expected to further impact birth rates, intensifying China's demographic issues. Carl Minzner, Council on Foreign Relations, February 10
The Ishiba-Trump Era. On February 7, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and U.S. President Donald Trump held their inaugural meeting to discuss the U.S.-Japan alliance. The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to mutual security, with the United States pledging to uphold Article V protections over the Senkaku Islands and Japan agreeing to increase its military capabilities. They also discussed the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and opposed any unilateral attempts to alter the status quo by force or coercion. Economically, both nations committed to increasing bilateral investment and employment, collaborating on critical technologies, and countering economic coercion. Energy security was discussed, with Japan expressing interest in increasing its imports of liquefied natural gas from the United States. Despite these agreements, concerns persist in Tokyo regarding potential U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods and the implications of the blocked Nippon Steel acquisition of U.S. Steel. Sheila A. Smith, Council on Foreign Relations, February 10
India, the United States and the Future of the International Trade Order. The United States views China as a threat to the U.S.-led international order and has sought partnerships with countries like India to counterbalance China's influence. The U.S.-India relationship has strengthened since the George W. Bush administration, with developments during President Trump's first term, including India signing three defense agreements with the U.S. The Biden administration continued to prioritize this partnership, integrating India into its Indo-Pacific strategy and "friendshoring" initiatives to reorient supply chains away from China. Despite bipartisan support for deepening U.S.-India ties, challenges persist due to differing perspectives on trade norms. The U.S. criticizes India's protectionist policies, while India emphasizes its status as a developing nation. As Prime Minister Modi prepares to meet President Trump, bilateral trade issues, including India's $35 billion trade surplus with the U.S., are expected to be central topics of discussion. Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Council on Foreign Relations, February 10
India's Industrial Policies: Rejecting the Old Status Quo and Creating the New. Over the past decade, India has moved its trade policy towards import substitution to increase domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign goods. This approach has led to an increase in average tariff rates from 12% in fiscal year 2011 to 14.3% in fiscal year 2021. The government has also implemented production-linked incentives (PLIs) to promote local manufacturing in sectors such as electronics and semiconductors. However, these policies have occasionally disadvantaged foreign competitors and raised concerns about potential violations of World Trade Organization rules. Critics argue that such measures may hinder India's integration into global value chains and limit its participation in international trade. Despite these challenges, the government maintains that these initiatives are essential for achieving self-reliance and fostering economic growth. Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Council on Foreign Relations, February 10
Thailand's Ongoing Struggle for Democratic Stability. Thailand’s political system in 2024 remained dominated by entrenched military and royalist elites despite the 2023 election’s brief challenge to their authority. The Move Forward Party (MFP), which sought lese-majeste reform, was systematically sidelined, while a political deal allowed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to return from exile in exchange for aligning with military-backed factions. Structural instability persists due to legal tools like Section 112 (lese-majeste law) and the 2017 constitution, which enable opponents to be removed on vague ethical grounds. In August 2024, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was ousted over a weak corruption-related charge. Meanwhile, conservative “uncivil society” groups continued suppressing dissent, particularly targeting young activists questioning royal privileges. Late in the year, the junta-appointed senate was replaced through an opaque selection process, ensuring ongoing conservative dominance. The Constitutional Court dissolved the MFP, eliminating a key opposition force. Recognizing political realities, Pheu Thai’s leadership, including new Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, quickly distanced itself from controversial reforms. Thailand’s 2017 constitution, more rigid than previous iterations, ensures that the military retains influence without resorting to direct coups, shaping the country’s political trajectory for the foreseeable future. Greg Raymond, East Asia Forum, February 11
Cambodia’s Strong Economy, Weak Society Duality. In 2024, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet completed his first full year in office, overseeing robust economic growth while political freedoms remained restricted. The economy expanded by over 5%, driven by rising non-garment exports and a tourism recovery surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Cambodia also met the criteria to graduate from Least Developed Country (LDC) status for the second time, set to officially exit by 2029. However, political repression persisted, with opposition figures, activists, and journalists facing detentions and lawsuits. As Cambodia prepares for the loss of trade privileges and concessional financing, economic challenges could pressure the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) to implement institutional reforms. Without a strong opposition, the CPP has an opportunity to focus on governance improvements rather than election maneuvering. Strengthening administrative and judicial institutions could improve economic competitiveness, but political liberalization remains unlikely in the near future. If reforms succeed, Cambodia could evolve into a more effective authoritarian state, similar to Vietnam, rather than a democracy. The CPP views past democratization efforts as externally imposed, and any future political opening will likely occur on its own terms. Hun Manet’s ability to balance economic performance with institutional reform over the next five years will shape both Cambodia’s development and its political trajectory. Mark Vong, East Asia Forum, February 10
Decoupling, De-risking, and South Korea's Strategic Challenges. Since 2019, the global economy has been increasingly influenced by decoupling trends, particularly amid the U.S.-China trade tensions. This has led multinational corporations to relocate production away from China, with companies like GoPro moving U.S.-bound manufacturing to Mexico. South Korean firms, such as SK Hynix, have responded by investing in the United States to align with America-first policies. However, these investments may lack the visibility of high-profile announcements from other international companies, potentially undermining South Korea's efforts to strengthen economic ties with the U.S. Additionally, South Korea's growing trade surplus with the United States, which reached $66 billion in 2024, poses a risk of potential trade tensions. Balancing the demands of decoupling and de-risking while maintaining strong economic relationships presents a strategic challenge for South Korea. Sunhyung Lee, Korea Economic Institute of America, February 10
Trump’s Impact on Research Cooperation. The return of Donald Trump to the White House has sparked concerns about the future of U.S.-China research collaboration. A second Trump administration may prioritize changing geopolitical strategies, national security concerns, and the reduction of dependence on China in critical technologies. Such policies would likely influence the scope and dynamics of scientific cooperation between the two nations and affect various high-impact research fields and thus the global scientific landscape. Nong Hong, Institute for China-America Studies, February 7
In Delhi, BJP's Roughshod Politics Prove a Winning Formula. On February 8, 2025, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a decisive victory in Delhi's assembly elections, unseating the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) after a 25-year hiatus from power in the capital. The BJP's campaign heavily relied on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's personal appeal, especially following the party's reduced majority in the national elections, which compelled alliances with regional leaders like Bihar's Nitish Kumar. Throughout AAP's third term, tensions escalated between the Delhi government and the centrally appointed Lieutenant Governor Vinai Saxena, who assumed executive powers. Central agencies also targeted AAP officials, including Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, who was incarcerated for five months on corruption charges before resigning in September 2024. Despite these challenges, the BJP's strategy resonated with voters, capturing 48 out of 70 assembly seats, a substantial increase from the eight seats won in 2020. This outcome is anticipated to reinforce the BJP's assertive governance approach, potentially leading to further centralization of authority and increased intervention in opposition-led states. Anando Bhakto, The Diplomat, February 10
2024 Was a Dismal Year for Chinese Philanthropy. In 2024, China's charitable donations declined, with estimates suggesting a 14.3% decrease from 2022, totaling approximately 120 billion yuan ($17 billion), the lowest since 2014. This downturn is attributed to economic challenges and diminished public trust due to corruption scandals. Corporate philanthropy suffered notably, especially within the struggling real estate sector, where major donors like Evergrande and Country Garden faced financial crises. This decline raises concerns about the Chinese Communist Party's "common prosperity" agenda, which relies on charitable giving as a supplementary mechanism to address income inequality. Vincent Chow, The Diplomat, February 8
Trump’s Aid Cuts Could Devastate Myanmar More Than Anyone Expects. In early 2025, President Donald Trump issued an executive order halting U.S. foreign aid, leading to the shutdown of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). This decision has impacted Myanmar, which received over $238 million in U.S. aid in 2024, with approximately 47% allocated to humanitarian efforts. The immediate effects are evident along the Thai-Myanmar border, where several agencies have ceased essential humanitarian assistance programs and shut down healthcare services. For instance, the Karenni Refugee Camp in Thailand's Mae Hong Son District closed its facilities, leaving many without access to critical medical equipment and medicine. Within Myanmar, the aid suspension threatens the operations of United Nations agencies like the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, the World Food Programme, and UNICEF, which rely heavily on U.S. funding. Given the existing funding gaps, the reduction in assistance could severely affect the delivery of essential services such as long-term healthcare, education, and agricultural support. This development comes amid escalating conflicts between Myanmar's ruling junta and various ethnic armed groups, intensifying the need for humanitarian aid in affected regions. Su Mon Thazin Aung, Fulcrum, February 11
After the Honeymoon, Where Will President Prabowo Take Indonesia? A Governance Perspective. In his first 100 days, President Prabowo Subianto has pledged to continue key infrastructure projects like the Nusantara Capital City and downstreaming initiatives, aligning with his predecessor Joko Widodo's economic nationalism. However, this continuity raises concerns due to previous criticisms of weakened democratic institutions and centralized power. Prabowo's selection of Joko Widodo's son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as vice president has intensified fears of dynastic politics. While the administration has maintained economic stability and initiated social programs such as the free nutritious meals (MBG) initiative, questions persist about the fiscal sustainability of these efforts. The MBG program alone is estimated to cost between 100-150 trillion rupiah (US$6-9 billion) annually, potentially impacting other government priorities. Public sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, but challenges like socioeconomic inequalities and regional disparities continue to pose hurdles for the administration. Yanuar Nugroho, Fulcrum, February 10