Asia Daily: December 9, 2025

China

Chinese carrier holds air drills as Tokyo, Beijing trade barbs. China’s Liaoning carrier conducted about 100 flights near Japan as Tokyo protested fighter jets allegedly aiming radar beams at its aircraft, prompting a diplomatic summons. Beijing rejected the accusation and warned Japan to curb frontline actions. Tensions rose after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan and China’s subsequent travel advisory. Tim Kelly, Chang-Ran Kim and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, December 8

China trade surplus tops $1 trillion for first time on non-U.S. growth. China’s trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025 as exporters shifted toward Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia to avoid high U.S. tariffs, while U.S.-bound shipments fell sharply. November exports rose 5.9% and imports remained soft, highlighting weak domestic demand. Joe Cash, Reuters, December 8

China’s state security chief hints at US decline, says tech theft is a major concern. China’s security minister Chen Yixin warned of rising external risks and vowed to counter Taiwan independence, foreign interference and technology theft while protecting strategic sea lanes. He described “unipolar hegemony” as unsustainable and called for stronger counter-espionage measures and safeguards for key technologies and resources. William Zheng, South China Morning Post, December 8

U.S. to allow Nvidia H200 chip shipments to China, Trump says. Trump said the United States will permit exports of Nvidia’s H200 artificial-intelligence chips to China, subject to a 25% fee, and that similar rules will cover AMD and Intel as the Commerce Department seeks to balance national-security concerns with maintaining U.S. leadership in AI. Stephen Nellis, Karen Freifeld and Michael Martina, Reuters, December 8

Japan

Japan Diet begins debate on huge extra budget, increasing fiscal concerns. Lawmakers opened debate on an 18.3 trillion yen extra budget to fund measures easing living costs and boosting investment, despite warnings that heavy bond issuance will worsen Japan’s fiscal health and push long-term rates higher. The plan expands support for households and industry while accelerating defense spending to 2% of GDP. Kyodo News, December 8

Japan threatening us militarily, China tells German foreign minister. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his visiting German counterpart in Beijing that Japan is threatening China militarily after Tokyo protested radar targeting by Chinese jets. He condemned Japan’s Taiwan-related comments and invoked World War Two history, while Japan and Taiwan rejected Beijing’s claims as distortions. Chang-Ran Kim and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, December 9

Japan counters Chinese radar lock-on claims amid tensions. Japan rejected China’s accusation that Self-Defense Force aircraft endangered flight safety, saying a Chinese J-15 intermittently targeted an F-15 with fire-control radar on Dec. 6 near Okinawa. Tokyo condemned the act, lodged protests and emphasized a “calmly yet resolutely” stance as officials warned the incident underscored rising risks amid strained ties. The Asahi Shimbun, December 8

South Korea

Lee calls for overcoming resistance amid pushback against judicial reforms. President Lee Jae Myung urged persistence on reforms as the Democratic Party advanced bills to penalize judicial misconduct and create a special tribunal for insurrection cases tied to former President Yoon’s martial law attempt, despite opposition resistance. Lee also pressed for measures targeting political interference by religious groups. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, December 9

Liberal bloc’s push to repeal National Security Law ignites political firestorm. South Korean lawmakers reignited a decades-long debate after 31 members of the pro-government bloc proposed abolishing the National Security Act, arguing it suppresses free expression and duplicates existing criminal statutes. Critics warned repeal would weaken defenses against espionage amid persistent North Korean threats, while experts noted political and practical obstacles to overhauling the framework. Bahk Eun-ji, The Korea Times, December 8

North Korea

Adjusting S. Korea-U.S. joint drills may be discussed if conditions are met. South Korea’s unification ministry said adjustments to joint drills with the United States could be considered if conditions allow, aligning partly with Minister Chung Dong-young’s stance as Seoul seeks renewed dialogue with Pyongyang. The presidential office, however, rejected using exercises as leverage, underscoring their security importance. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, December 8

Trump security roadmap omits North Korea reference, raising diplomacy hopes. Trump’s new security roadmap omits the long-standing goal of North Korea's denuclearisation, fuelling expectations of renewed diplomatic talks with Kim Jong Un in 2026. Washington and Seoul insist policy is unchanged while embracing “flexible realism” that prioritises containing China and strengthening South Korea and Japan’s conventional defences. Joyce Lee and Jack Kim, Reuters, December 8

Vietnam

Lawmakers debate 2025 judicial performance, anti-corruption results. Vietnam’s National Assembly reviewed 2025 judicial work, noting crime and legal violations fell 21% even as fraud, asset appropriation, and public order offences increased and hi-tech crime detection remained weak. Asset recovery in corruption cases rose sharply, and lawmakers urged stronger 2026 prevention, inspections and accountability. Vietnam News, December 9

Thailand

Thailand-Cambodia fighting spreads along contested border. Thailand says it is expelling Cambodian forces from its territory as renewed clashes spread along their disputed border, shattering a U.S.-brokered ceasefire that ended July’s five-day war. Cambodia reports six civilians killed and accuses Thailand of striking villages, while Bangkok cites Cambodian snipers, heavy weapons and trenches as it evacuates 438,000 residents from five provinces. Panarat Thepgumpanat and Orathai Sriring, Reuters, December 9

Thai government releases timeline of clashes on Thai-Cambodian border. Thailand detailed clashes on Dec. 7–8 in Si Sa Ket, Buriram and Surin, reporting wounded soldiers, Cambodian indirect fire on Thai territory and renewed fighting near defensive lines. Authorities reinforced troops, activated evacuations and opened shelters as one soldier was killed and many were injured, while vowing to defend sovereignty and pursue diplomacy. The Nation, December 9

Myanmar

Myanmar junta boss says military will remain in politics until EAOs ‘disappear’. Min Aung Hlaing said the military would keep a leading political role until ethnic armed groups vanish, urging support for defense-minded candidates ahead of the planned election. He framed disarmament as the path to peace, while critics said the stance guarantees prolonged military dominance under the 2008 Constitution. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, December 8

Cambodia

Cambodian PM urges Thailand to pursue peaceful settlement of border issues. Prime Minister Hun Manet called on Thailand to stop using military force near civilian areas and resolve border disputes through agreed demarcation mechanisms, citing ongoing joint survey work along key boundary segments. He said Thailand’s stated commitment to peace and international law requires rejecting armed measures and respecting mutually recognised documents. Khmer Times, December 8

Philippines

Sara Duterte unfazed by new impeachment threat, cites pattern of accusations. Vice President Sara Duterte said talk of a new impeachment complaint follows a familiar pattern, noting the one-year ban on refiling ends in February and alleging past efforts involved pressured signature gathering tied to budget talks. Critics signaled readiness to pursue another case after earlier impeachment articles were voided by the Supreme Court. Reina C. Tolentino, The Manila Times, December 8

Case buildup continues vs senators in infra mess. The Ombudsman began building cases against current and former senators implicated in flood control irregularities, citing serious allegations and testimony from ex-DPWH official Roberto Bernardo. Potential charges range from plunder to bribery, while implicated officials denied wrongdoing. Preliminary work is underway, with more lawyers being hired as investigations expand. Faith Argosino, Philippine Daily Inquirer, December 9

Taiwan

Chinese coastguard conducts first rescue drill in Taiwan Strait’s strategic choke point. China held its first rescue drill in the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, using major patrol ships and drones near the Taiwan Shoal after simulating a vessel fire and an overboard crew. Taiwan tracked the operation and said conditions stayed normal as tensions rose over recent military activity. Zhao Ziwen, South China Morning Post, December 8

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan’s crypto market surges to $6.8 billion as AIFC expands regulated ecosystem. Kazakhstan’s regulated platforms recorded $6.8 billion in digital-asset trading in January–September 2025 as user numbers rose to 192,000 and 29 licensed providers operated under the AIFC’s maturing framework. AFSA expanded its Green List to 113 assets, advanced stablecoin oversight and earned IOSCO recognition for strong compliance. Fatima Kemelova, The Astana Times, December 8

East Asia

China’s Nickel Empire: The Hidden Costs of Green Tech and AI Ambitions in Indonesia. China turns Indonesia into a hub for nickel extraction and processing to secure supplies for electric vehicles and AI hardware. Massive Chinese investment pushes output above 2.2 million tons and grants investors control over most refining capacity, with mega projects on Sulawesi such as new HPAL plants. Forest loss, river pollution, and damage to coastal fisheries erode traditional livelihoods in fishing and farming communities across affected islands. Mining centers gain roads, housing, and thousands of jobs, and local officials praise China for capital that Western partners promised yet failed to deliver, which sharpens domestic divisions. With US tariffs on metals and weak engagement in Southeast Asia, China locks in a dominant position in nickel trade while Indonesia risks long-term ecological fragility and economic dependence. Joshua An, Sino-Southeast Initiative, December 8

China knows how to punish countries that offend it. China rotates bursts of diplomatic anger toward states that cross its red lines and links pressure to concrete trade and tourism measures. Targets range from Japan, Lithuania, South Korea, Canada, Australia, and the Philippines, with restrictions on seafood, farm exports, tourism, and culture. Beijing disguises sanctions as technical steps yet signals that challenges to positions on Taiwan, Tibet, security, or human rights bring clear costs. Economic losses concentrate on foreign firms in China, while Beijing redirects imports and tourists with limited disruption at home. Reputational damage among overseas publics deepens mistrust toward China but leaders in many capitals adjust policy to avoid entry into this diplomatic doghouse. The Economist, December 8

Nationalists play to the crowd in Japan China relations. Sanae Takaichi links a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan to an existential crisis for Japan, which under existing law could justify limited force, and repeats this stance despite criticism from opposition leaders and senior Liberal Democratic Party figures. Her position reflects a commitment to constitutional revision and stronger defense, shaped by a new ruling coalition with the more conservative Japan Innovation Party after a heavy election setback. Beijing responds with harsh official and online rhetoric that feeds nationalist sentiment. The confrontation strengthens support for Takaichi at home yet damages ties with China and leaves future diplomacy under strain. Zhenlin Cui, East Asia Forum, December 8

North Korea’s Odd Reticence on China Japan Tensions. North Korea tracks the diplomatic clash between China and Japan over Sanae Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks yet avoids firm endorsement of Beijing, limiting coverage to routine reports and one balanced Minju Joson article that cites Chinese and Japanese positions and finishes in neutral language. This restraint contrasts with strong past backing for China on Taiwan from senior leaders, the foreign ministry, party organs, and the ambassador in Beijing during tensions from 2021 through 2023. Explanations include cautious pacing in renewed ties after the Kim Xi summit, a desire to keep options open with Tokyo, and preparation for a broader foreign policy line at the forthcoming Ninth Party Congress. Rachel Minyoung Lee, 38 North, December 8

Central Asia

Why Washington can’t outbid Beijing and Moscow in Central Asia. Central Asia now stands at the center of a contest among China, Russia, the United States, and the European Union yet depends on its two neighbors for trade and security. China dominates regional commerce and infrastructure investment through Belt and Road projects and new summits, while Russia supplies bases, troops, pipelines, and labor markets. Western influence arrives through US deals on minerals and aircraft and an EU connectivity fund, but limited security presence and slow financing restrict impact. Elites pursue multi-vector diplomacy, seek Russian protection and Chinese capital, and court Washington and Brussels to gain leverage and higher returns. The region treats US and EU engagement as insurance rather than a replacement for the Sino-Russian alignment, which anchors core economic and political survival. Hao Nan, ThinkChina, December 8

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