Asia Daily: December 9, 2023
News
China's Xi says economic recovery 'still at critical stage'. President Xi Jinping of China has described the country's economic recovery as still being in a critical phase, with slow domestic activity and issues in the property sector affecting the post-pandemic rebound. In the third quarter, China's economy expanded by 4.9%, slightly below the government's target of 5%. Despite easing COVID-19 containment measures, challenges remain, as evidenced by a drop in imports signaling weak consumer activity. Moody's recently downgraded China's credit rating outlook due to concerns about its fiscal, economic, and institutional strength, intensifying worries about the property sector's ongoing debt crisis. Channel News Asia, December 8
US, South Korean, Japanese security advisers meet to discuss North Korea. Security advisers from the United States, South Korea, and Japan convened in Seoul to address concerns about North Korea and other global issues, reinforcing trilateral cooperation. The meeting included discussions on North Korea's nuclear threat and missile provocations, with a focus on enhancing collaborative efforts to address these challenges. The advisers condemned North Korea's recent satellite launch, viewing it as a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. This meeting signifies a strengthened alliance among the three nations in response to regional security threats. Soo-hyang Choi, Reuters, December 8
Chinese and Russian police chiefs meet as Beijing casts wider law enforcement net. Chinese Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong and Russian Minister of Internal Affairs Vladimir Kolokoltsev met to discuss strengthening cooperation in law enforcement. The meeting focused on transnational crime, cybersecurity, and drug control. This engagement highlights Beijing's efforts to build a security alliance with friendly countries and extend its law enforcement network, emphasizing the growing Sino-Russian collaboration in the face of geopolitical pressures. William Zheng, South China Morning Post, December 9
Japan's GDP revised down to 2.9% fall in July-Sept., inflation bites. Japan's economy experienced a sharper contraction than initially reported in the July-September period, with an annualized decrease of 2.9%, primarily due to weaker private consumption and slowing export growth. This marks the first negative growth in four quarters, with private consumption and capital investment both showing declines. The economic downturn presents challenges for the government, as it grapples with inflation and declining wages impacting consumers. Kyodo News, December 8
Ex-DP leader Song questioned over cash-for-votes scandal. Former Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil faced prosecutors' questioning in a cash-for-votes scandal linked to the party's 2021 leadership election. He was interrogated about bribery and illegal political funding, with suspicions of distributing cash envelopes to lawmakers and party members. Song, who denies the allegations, criticized the investigation as politically motivated and remained largely silent during questioning. His involvement in other bribery incidents is also under scrutiny. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, December 8
Central Asia: Report accuses Chinese hackers of attacking Uzbek Foreign Ministry’s servers. Chinese hackers are reported to have launched cyberattacks on Uzbekistan's governmental servers and individual users in South Korea. The attacks, detailed in a December report by The Hacker News, involved a remote access Trojan known as "SugarGh0st RAT," allegedly originating from China. Although there's no definitive proof of the Chinese government's involvement, the hackers' techniques align with China's known intelligence activities. The specifics of the Uzbek incident, as reported by The Hacker News, could not be independently verified by Eurasianet. Eurasianet, December 8
PCG probes accountability over PH-China sea incident. The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is investigating a maritime incident involving a Chinese-flagged vessel, MV Tai Hang 8, and a Filipino fishing boat near Paluan, Occidental Mindoro. Commandant Adm. Ronnie Gil Gavan emphasized their commitment to holding maritime offenders accountable, revealing that the PCG has already coordinated with the Chinese government for the investigation. The incident, which left five Filipino fishermen adrift, occurred in the West Philippine Sea. Rescue operations were conducted by three Filipino fishing boats, and the fishermen received medical and logistical support upon their safe return. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, December 9
Việt Nam a very important partner of Thailand in the region: Thai PM. Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, during a meeting with Vietnamese National Assembly Chairman Vương Đình Huệ, affirmed the significant partnership between Thailand and Vietnam, agreeing to elevate their ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership. This upgrade aims to bolster collaboration across various sectors, with a memorandum of understanding signed to enhance legislative cooperation. The two countries, key players in ASEAN, have seen a rapid and effective growth in relations, with Thailand being Vietnam's largest trade partner in ASEAN. Both leaders committed to strengthening their partnership through strategies like the "Three Connections" approach, fostering mutual benefits and sustainable development. Vietnam News, December 8
Tuvalu politician who stood in rising sea wants changes to Australia migration treaty. Tuvalu's Foreign Minister Simon Kofe, known for his symbolic stand in rising seas at the U.N. climate summit, is calling for a revision of the recent migration treaty with Australia. Kofe, who played a pivotal role in amending Tuvalu's constitution to ensure its continuity as a nation despite potential land loss due to climate change, argues that the treaty infringes on Tuvalu's sovereignty. The treaty, designed to facilitate migration in response to climate change, has raised concerns about Tuvalu's autonomy in immigration, customs, and security arrangements. While welcoming Australia's recognition of climate threats, Kofe emphasizes the need for renegotiation to safeguard Tuvalu's independence. Kirsty Needham, Reuters, December 8
India at COP28 insists on 'equity' in climate talks. India's Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav, at the COP28 summit in Dubai, emphasized the need for equity and justice in climate negotiations, underscoring India's stance as a developing nation against compulsory cuts in energy-related emissions. India, the third-largest emitter globally, insists that wealthier nations should lead in climate action due to their historical emissions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, advocating for climate justice, has offered to host COP33 in 2028, while India continues to resist setting specific timelines for phasing down coal, despite its goals to increase renewable energy sources. Gloria Dickie, Reuters, December 9
Long Form
U.S., Vietnam Have Work to Do to Build Out New Partnership. The U.S. and Vietnam have recently upgraded their bilateral ties, reflecting shared regional objectives and economic interests. This new "comprehensive strategic partnership" elevates the U.S. to the top level in Vietnam's hierarchy of bilateral relationships, a status previously reserved for countries like China, India, Russia, and South Korea. The partnership focuses on economic innovation and cooperation in science and technology, with particular emphasis on building resilient semiconductor supply chains. Johnathan Stromseth, Nikkei Asia, Decmeber 9
Japan's Close Ties with Southeast Asia Hold Lessons for U.S. Japan's approach to building relationships with Southeast Asian nations offers valuable insights for the U.S. in its strategic engagement in the region. Japan's patient and generous multidimensional approach has fostered trust and goodwill, benefiting both Japan and the U.S. Japan's diplomacy, characterized by decades of official development assistance and robust trade ties, has positioned it as a reliable and trusted nation in ASEAN. Tokyo's support for global agendas, such as condemning Russia's actions in Ukraine and hosting the launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, aligns with U.S. interests. Japan's growing security cooperation with Southeast Asian states complements U.S. efforts, especially in balancing Chinese maritime activities. By Emma Chanlett-Avery, Nikkei Asia, December 8
How Will Laos Handle Its 2024 Chairmanship of ASEAN? Laos, a small communist state grappling with macroeconomic instability, faces a significant challenge as it takes over the ASEAN chairmanship in 2024. The transition from Indonesia, ASEAN's most populous and capable member, to its poorest has raised concerns about Laos' ability to steer the bloc through various regional challenges, including the conflict in Myanmar, tensions in the South China Sea, and the U.S.-China rivalry. Historically, Laos has adeptly balanced between larger forces, and ASEAN provides a crucial platform for it to engage with neighbors and external partners, expand economic opportunities, and promote its interests. Laos' limitations in hosting ASEAN events, such as infrastructure and diplomatic staffing, may offer a silver lining, as it welcomes technical and diplomatic assistance from external partners like the United States, Australia, Japan, and Vietnam. By To Minh Son, The Diplomat, December 9
The State of China’s Autonomous Machine Computing Research. China's progress in autonomous machine computing (AMC) research is a critical aspect of the ongoing tech competition between China and the U.S., particularly as both nations transition to an autonomy economy. AMC plays a pivotal role in this technological race, underpinning advancements in various sectors. By Shaoshan Liu, The Diplomat, December 9
Keeping the IPEF Afloat is in Indonesia’s Interest. Indonesia's support for the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) is crucial, despite uncertainties about the framework's future and its ability to deliver direct market access benefits. Indonesia's involvement in IPEF negotiations, particularly in the clean economy pillar, aligns with its broader economic and foreign policy goals. This engagement enhances Indonesia's global stature as an inclusive and reliable trade partner and balances its strategic positioning between the US and China. Participation in the IPEF also opens avenues for deeper economic cooperation with the US in areas like carbon capture, nickel processing for electric vehicle batteries, and potential critical minerals agreements. By Arrizal Jaknanihan, East Asia Forum, December 9
How a Chinese Railway Helped Jokowi Cement His Infrastructure Legacy
Indonesia's first high-speed railway, the Jakarta-Bandung line, marks a significant advancement in the country's infrastructure development. Financed by Chinese banks and built with Chinese technology, this $7.3 billion project reflects President Joko Widodo's modernization efforts and Beijing's strategy to strengthen relations with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) recipient countries. The railway, a joint venture between Indonesian and Chinese state-owned enterprises, reduces travel time between Jakarta and Bandung to just 30 minutes. Despite delays and cost overruns, the project demonstrates the BRI's potential to offer alternative development paradigms and knowledge transfer to the Global South. By Menghu Xia, East Asia Forum, December 8