News
China says its fighters shadowed US Navy patrol plane over Taiwan Strait. In a recent development, China's military dispatched fighter jets to monitor and issue a warning to a U.S. Navy patrol aircraft flying over the Taiwan Strait. This action occurred shortly before Taiwan's upcoming elections. China maintains a claim of sovereignty over Taiwan and asserts jurisdiction over the strait, while Taiwan and the U.S. regard the Taiwan Strait as an international waterway. The U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet confirmed that the P-8A Poseidon plane was conducting a mission in international airspace, emphasizing the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. Taiwan's defense ministry monitored the U.S. aircraft and considered the situation normal. Reuters, December 6
China space authorities name Elon Musk’s SpaceX an ‘unprecedented challenge’. China has identified Elon Musk's SpaceX as a significant and unprecedented challenge to its ambitions of becoming a leading space power by 2045. This sentiment, expressed in an official commentary from China Space News, highlights the urgency for Chinese aerospace workers to address the widening technology gap with SpaceX. China's main space contractor, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), is reportedly lagging in several aspects, including development philosophy and core rocket technologies, compared to SpaceX's innovations like the Falcon 9 rocket, Dragon spacecraft, and the developing Starship and Starlink projects. To compete, CASC and other Chinese aerospace entities are developing their versions of Starship and Starlink. Ling Xin, South China Morning Post, December 6
3 more bodies of crashed U.S. Osprey crew members recovered in Japan. The recovery operation for the U.S. military Osprey aircraft that crashed last week in southwestern Japan has resulted in the retrieval of three more crew members' bodies. With this latest effort, six out of the eight crew members aboard have been found. The U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command has shifted focus from search and rescue to recovery operations, while the Japan Coast Guard continues the search for the remaining two crew members. This incident marks the deadliest accident involving U.S. Ospreys to date, surpassing a 2000 trial run that resulted in 19 fatalities. Kyodo News, December 6
Italy withdraws from China’s Belt and Road Initiative, reports say. Italy has officially withdrawn from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a significant reversal more than four years after it became the only G7 nation to join the Chinese-led infrastructure project. The decision, reflecting months of uncertainty about Italy's participation, was recently communicated to Beijing. The BRI, aimed at rebuilding the ancient Silk Road with vast infrastructure investments, has been criticized as a means for Beijing to extend its geopolitical influence. Despite the withdrawal, Italy intends to maintain strong relations with China. The move by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, driven by the perceived lack of substantial benefits for Italy, comes ahead of the 2019 agreement's expiration in March 2024. Rome has been cautious to avoid provoking Beijing and endangering Italian businesses. Al Jazeera, December 6
Japan PM Kishida urges his party factions to forgo fundraisers amid scandal. In response to a political funds scandal, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has instructed the executives of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to suspend fundraising parties. This move aims to rebuild public trust, which has been shaken by allegations of underreported income from such events. These allegations, currently under investigation, have significantly impacted the Kishida Cabinet's public approval ratings. The scandal involves five LDP factions, including Kishida's, which are suspected of understating revenue from fundraising activities, with the largest faction allegedly creating secret funds of around 100 million yen. Kyodo News, December 6
PH Coast Guard eyes fleet base in Subic. The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is actively planning to establish a new fleet base in Subic, Zambales. This initiative, led by PCG Commandant Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan, involves scouting for suitable locations to accommodate larger ships. The development of this fleet base in Subic is a strategic response to ongoing Chinese incursions into the West Philippines Sea. Additionally, the PCG is strengthening its personnel resources, having recruited 4,000 individuals this year and anticipating the recruitment of another 4,000 next year. The Manila Times, December 6
EU to issue firm words at China summit with limited expectations. The upcoming EU-China summit in Beijing, the first in-person meeting since 2019, is anticipated to be frank but with limited expectations for concrete outcomes. Key EU officials, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel, will address issues ranging from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to trade challenges. While no joint statement is expected, the EU aims to urge China to leverage its influence over Russia to end the conflict and address the imbalanced economic relationship, marked by a significant EU trade deficit with China. Additionally, the EU's concerns about its dependency on Chinese imports, especially critical raw materials, are on the agenda. Philip Blenkinsop, Reuters, December 6
Yoon's approval rating drops to 33 pct: Yonhap News Survey. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's approval rating has fallen to 33 percent, a 4 percentage point decrease from the previous month, according to a Yonhap News Agency and Yonhap News TV survey. The survey also indicates a shift in public support for major political parties, with the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) leading over the ruling People Power Party (PPP) by a margin of 36 percent to 31 percent in potential general election scenarios. The survey, conducted by Metrix with 1,000 adults, highlights defense and diplomacy as strengths in Yoon's performance, while economic and livelihood issues are major concerns. Kang Jae-eun, Yonhap News Agency, December 6
First Cambodia-Laos-Việt Nam Parliamentary Summit wraps up. The inaugural Cambodia-Laos-Việt Nam (CLV) Parliamentary Summit concluded in Vientiane, Laos, with a significant joint statement aimed at enhancing parliamentary cooperation among the three nations. The summit's focus was on fostering collaboration in diverse areas such as politics, security, defense, culture, and the economy. Vietnamese National Assembly Chairman Vương Đình Huệ highlighted the importance of the joint statement for regional cooperation and development. He emphasized the need for the parliaments of the three nations to closely monitor the implementation of agreements and develop strong ties. The next summit, to be hosted by Việt Nam in 2025, will further cement the collaborative efforts and solidarity among these countries. Vietnam News, December 6
Long Form
Is China Open for Business Again? China is signaling a return to business and tourism with urgency, yet effectiveness remains uncertain. Nearly a year after emerging from its zero-COVID isolation, China is actively trying to revitalize its economy, which had initially rebounded but is now facing slowing growth. The APEC summit in San Francisco, attended by President Xi Jinping, and China's visa-free entry for tourists from several countries are moves to reassure the global community. However, challenges persist, including reduced foreign business confidence due to economic risks and the Chinese government's approach to the private sector. Xi's diplomatic efforts highlight the need for more than symbolic gestures to regain foreign investor confidence. Lea Thome, The Diplomat, December 7
Indonesia doubles down on nickel export bans and downstreaming. Indonesia's decision to ban the export of all unprocessed nickel aims to shift from commodity export reliance to economic diversification. President Joko Widodo focuses on leveraging Indonesia's status as the world's largest nickel ore producer to boost domestic value. The nickel export ban, instrumental for rechargeable battery production, has already attracted significant investment and growth in specific provinces. However, challenges arise, as most Indonesian nickel suits stainless steel production more than EV batteries. The government's current approach faces hurdles, including environmental concerns and market access issues, especially with the EU and the US. Adapting to these challenges and balancing domestic EV production with global market demands are critical for Indonesia's sustainable economic growth and industrial policy. Krisna Gupta, East Asia Forum, December 7
Taiwan's defining moment: Election to determine future of relations with China. Taiwan's upcoming presidential election in January 2024 is a critical juncture, with the potential to shape the island's precarious sovereignty, its relationship with China, and regional stability. The election features three main contenders: Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who staunchly defends Taiwan's sovereignty; the Kuomintang (KMT) candidates Hou Yu-ih and Jaw Shaw-kong, advocating for negotiation and compromise with China; and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) led by Ko Wen-je, positioning themselves as a centrist alternative. The election is set against a backdrop of heightened tensions due to China's increased military activities near Taiwan and the global context of conflicts like the Ukraine war, raising concerns about the possibility of armed conflict. Thompson Chau, Nikkei Asia, December 6
China's property crisis won't be solved by just treating symptoms. The article discusses the ongoing property crisis in China, emphasizing that the current approach of providing more loans to developers is insufficient and may only prolong the underlying issues. The Chinese government's recent efforts to support the real estate sector, which accounts for about 30% of the country's GDP, are seen as short-term fixes rather than addressing the root causes of the crisis. The situation draws parallels to Japan's 1990s bad-loan crisis, where symptoms were treated instead of underlying problems, leading to a prolonged economic downturn. The article suggests that structural reforms, similar to those undertaken by Japan and the U.S. in past financial crises, are necessary for a long-term solution. William Pesek, Nikkei Asia, December 7
The Nuclear Shadows of the Russia-Ukraine War: A Chinese Perspective. This article delves into the Chinese viewpoint on the nuclear implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Chinese strategists, while not openly critical of Russia due to the close China-Russia relationship, are deeply analyzing the conflict to understand modern warfare dynamics. A key focus is on the debate over tactical nuclear use and escalation, with concerns that the nuclear risks in this conflict may surpass those of the Cuban Missile Crisis. The article highlights the Chinese anxiety over the potential for nuclear escalation and the lack of effective arms control agreements to mitigate these risks. Chinese analyses suggest that both the U.S. and Russia are locked in an escalation spiral, increasing the likelihood of nuclear first use. The article underscores the importance of urging moderation from both sides to prevent the conflict from spiraling out of control. Lyle Goldstein and Nathan Waechter, The Diplomat, December 6