Asia Daily: December 6, 2024
Trump picks former Senator David Perdue as ambassador to China. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has nominated former Senator David Perdue as ambassador to China, emphasizing his business acumen to manage strained U.S.-China relations. Trump, who assumes office on January 20, has pledged to implement tariffs on Chinese goods unless Beijing curbs fentanyl trafficking. Perdue, a Republican and former business executive, lived in Hong Kong during his career and vowed to uphold Trump’s strategy. Critics have noted Perdue’s history of outsourcing jobs to Asia, which contrasts with Trump’s anti-outsourcing stance. Michael Martina and Eric Beech, Reuters, December 6
National Assembly poised to vote on Yoon's impeachment. South Korea's National Assembly is set to vote on an impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol after his abrupt declaration and lifting of martial law earlier this week. The motion requires a two-thirds majority, needing support from at least eight members of Yoon’s ruling People Power Party (PPP), with one PPP lawmaker already endorsing it. If passed, the Constitutional Court will determine Yoon’s fate. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, December 7
Key figures involved in martial law insist they did not know or agree. Man officials linked to President Yoon Suk Yeol's declaration of martial law are claiming ignorance or opposition to the decision. Army Chief of Staff Park An-su, designated martial law commander, stated he learned of the declaration only when it was publicly announced. Interior Minister Lee Sang-min faced backlash for suggesting martial law could have blocked legislative action, while Health Minister Cho Kyu-hong and Acting Defense Minister Kim Seon-ho distanced themselves from the decision. Jun-Il Kim, The Dong-A Ilbo, December 6
Mongolia and the UAE exchange views on expanding bilateral relations and cooperation. During a working visit to the United Arab Emirates on December 5, 2024, Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai met with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Discussions focused on strengthening ties in trade, mining, renewable energy, digital development, agriculture, and tourism. Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene presented Mongolia’s 2024-2028 Action Program, while Sheikh Mohamed expressed support for deeper collaboration. B.Agiimaa, MONTSAME, December 6
Pheu Thai bill 'to curb coups'. The Pheu Thai Party has proposed amending the Defence Ministry Administration Act to reduce military influence in political affairs by establishing a cabinet-appointed committee responsible for appointing generals, thereby limiting the power of armed forces commanders to promote close associates. The bill designates the prime minister as the Defense Council chairman, a role traditionally held by the defense minister, and introduces stringent criteria for general appointments. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, December 7
Kyrgyz authorities raid state tax service offices. Kyrgyzstan's State Committee for National Security (SCNS) conducted searches across four district offices of the State Tax Service (STS), detaining 30 tax officials, including three of the four heads of the STS in Bishkek, on allegations of abuse of office. The officials are accused of facilitating tax evasion by allowing major manufacturers and importers of excisable goods to falsify shipping documents. A criminal case has been initiated under Article 337 of the Criminal Code, pertaining to the abuse of official position. Anton Chipegin, The Times of Central Asia, December 5
Laos, Cambodia agree to strengthen cooperation. Laos and Cambodia pledged to deepen ties in politics, defense, economy, energy, education, and border affairs during Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone’s visit to Cambodia on December 4-5. Key agreements were signed on avoiding double taxation and cultural and agricultural cooperation. The nations also vowed to support each other in regional and international forums like ASEAN and the UN, while preparing for Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet’s 2025 visit to Laos. Vientiane Times, December 6
Police in India clash with farmers during protest march over minimum price demand for crops. Indian police used tear gas to disperse hundreds of farmers marching to New Delhi demanding guaranteed minimum crop prices, echoing similar protests from 2021. Farmers are seeking legally backed guarantees for minimum purchase prices on over 20 essential crops, beyond the government’s current focus on rice and wheat, as well as loan waivers and action on promises to double their incomes amid rising cultivation costs. Farmer leaders plan to protest in New Delhi while Parliament is in session. AP News, December 6
Paraguay expels Chinese diplomat for urging lawmakers to sever ties to Taiwan. Paraguay expelled Chinese diplomat Xu Wei after accusations that he urged lawmakers to abandon diplomatic ties with Taiwan during a visit for a Unesco event in Asunción. Xu reportedly claimed switching recognition to Beijing would bring economic benefits, but Paraguay declared him persona non grata, giving him 24 hours to leave. Paraguay, one of the few countries recognizing Taiwan, has faced domestic pressures to engage with Beijing but maintains its commitment to Taipei. Igor Patrick, South China Morning Post, December 6
Myanmar regime set to resume New Yangon City and other Chinese projects. Following junta leader Min Aung Hlaing's November visit to China, Myanmar's military regime plans to restart Chinese-backed initiatives, including the New Yangon City project and the Muse-Mandalay railway. The New Yangon City project, envisioned to be twice the size of Singapore, had stalled after the 2021 coup. Yangon Region’s chief minister Soe Thein and Chinese ambassador Ma Jia recently discussed revitalizing Chinese investments in the Yangon area. The Irrawaddy, December 6
Federal appeals court upholds law requiring sale or ban of TikTok in the U.S. A federal appeals court unanimously upheld a law requiring TikTok to sever ties with its China-based parent company ByteDance or face a U.S. ban by January 2025, rejecting the company’s arguments that the statute violates First and Fifth Amendment rights. The court ruled the law protects national security by addressing concerns over potential data misuse and content manipulation by the Chinese government. TikTok plans to appeal to the Supreme Court, while lawmakers have called for ByteDance to comply. Haleluya Hadero, AP News, December 6
Ishiba rejects ban on corporate donations, new probe in scandal. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba rejected an opposition proposal to ban corporate political donations, arguing that such donations constitute a form of free expression and should instead be fully disclosed. During his first appearance at the Lower House Budget Committee since taking office, Ishiba also dismissed calls for a new investigation into unreported political funds distributed by Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) factions. Committee Chair Jun Azumi, a member of the opposition, pledged to advance discussions on the matter. Shinichi Fujiwara, Kei Kobayashi and Takahiro Okubo, The Asahi Shimbun, December 5
Philippines holds drills with allies after South China Sea confrontation. The Philippines conducted joint maritime drills with the United States and Japan within its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, involving a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon aircraft, Philippine Navy ship BRP Andres Bonifacio, a C-90 small plane, and Japan’s JS Samidare destroyer. The exercises follow a confrontation with China, where Chinese coast guard vessels reportedly fired water cannons and blocked Philippine ships near Scarborough Shoal. Neil Jerome Morales, Reuters, December 6
N. Korea to hold key parliamentary meeting 2 days after Trump's inauguration. North Korea will convene the 12th session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly (SPA) on January 22, focusing on constitutional amendments and other legislative matters, according to state media. The session may formalize leader Kim Jong-un's directive declaring South Korea a "hostile state" and removing reconciliation goals from the constitution. Scheduled just after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, the meeting may include policy statements toward the U.S. in response to Trump's second term. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, December 6
South Korea's Yoon under pressure to resign as threat of impeachment looms. President Yoon Suk Yeol faces mounting calls for resignation after a declaration of martial law sparked national outrage. On Tuesday, Yoon gave the military sweeping powers to counter alleged "anti-state forces," but rescinded the decree hours later amid parliamentary opposition. While his People Power Party (PPP) has vowed to block an impeachment motion led by the opposition Democratic Party, some PPP members have urged Yoon to step down to avoid deeper political turmoil. Ju-min Park and Hyunsu Yim, Reuters, December 6
Ahead of expected war games, Taiwan urges China to 'unclench its fists'. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te called on China to "unclench its fists" and refrain from unilateral provocations as Beijing plans military exercises following his Pacific tour, which included stops in Hawaii and Guam. Speaking in Palau, Lai stressed that China’s military drills would not earn international respect, urging Beijing to adhere to a rules-based order. Taiwan, he said, remains vigilant and prepared to safeguard the Taiwan Strait. China, labeling Lai a "separatist," insists Taiwan is its territory. Yimou Lee and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, December 6
China to transport lithium-ion batteries along TITR via Kazakhstan. China plans to begin trial shipments of lithium-ion batteries to Europe via the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, which traverses Kazakhstan. This initiative was confirmed during a meeting between the two countries’ transport ministers on December 5. The TITR has experienced significant growth, with rail freight between Kazakhstan and China increasing by 13% to 26.6 million tons from January to October 2024. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, December 6
Lilo moves to dethrone Solomon Islands PM Manele with no-confidence vote. Central Honiara MP Gordon Darcy Lilo has filed a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele, citing the Prime Minister's lack of control over his ministers and the deteriorating economic situation. The motion also criticizes the government's handling of duty exemptions and recent controversies involving offshore business setups by government affiliates. Parliamentary standing orders require the motion to sit for seven clear days before debate, making December 12 the earliest possible date for discussion. PINA, December 6
The Underdog Superpower: Embracing Tactics That Work in an Adversary’s Near Abroad. While the United States is a dominant global superpower, it must adopt an underdog mindset when operating in adversaries’ near abroad, such as a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The complexities of projecting power within China’s sphere of influence, where anti-access and area-denial strategies, geographic advantages, and advanced capabilities limit U.S. superiority. Historical examples, including Finland’s defense during the Winter War and Egypt’s tactics in the Yom Kippur War, illustrate the efficacy of innovative, deceptive, and risk-accepting strategies. Employing such tactics, combined with a rejection of hubris, could increase the United States’ odds of success in scenarios where traditional dominance is untenable. Scott Pence, Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 6
Priorities in India’s Indo-Pacific Order: Astute Realpolitik or Flexible Diplomacy? India's approach to the Indo-Pacific region is a blend of realpolitik and flexible diplomacy, aiming to balance relations with major powers like the United States and China. The country engages in multilateral forums such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific, while simultaneously pursuing bilateral engagements with China to address border tensions and economic interests. This dual strategy shows India's commitment to strategic autonomy, allowing it to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics and maintain its influence in the region. Jagannath Panda, Julie Yu-Wen Chen, and Richard Ghiasy, The Diplomat, December 6.
Vietnam Signs Agreement with Nvidia to Establish AI Research and Data Centers. Vietnam has partnered with Nvidia to establish an artificial intelligence (AI) research and development center and an AI data center in the country. The agreement was signed in Hanoi, attended by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. This collaboration aims to advance Vietnam's high-tech industry and AI capabilities, contributing to the nation's goal of becoming a regional innovation hub. Additionally, Nvidia announced the acquisition of VinBrain, a healthcare startup owned by Vingroup, to enhance its AI healthcare solutions. Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat, December 6.
South Korea's impeachment battle is democracy in action. President Yoon Suk Yeol's abrupt declaration of martial law on December 3, 2024, led to immediate public protests and legislative opposition, compelling him to rescind the order within hours. The opposition Democratic Party has since filed an impeachment motion, condemning his actions as "insurrectionary behavior." Currently, the opposition is eight votes short of the two-thirds majority required to impeach Yoon. South Korea's 1987 Constitution provides a robust framework for addressing such abuses of power, and the country's recent history with impeachment suggests that the opposition holds a significant advantage. Yoon's potential removal could serve as a global example of how democracies can effectively confront and rectify the misuse of executive authority. Aziz Huq, The Japan Times, December 6.
Capitalism is the unsung hero of South Korean democracy. The resilience of South Korea's democracy can be attributed to its economic development. The nation's transition from military rule to a democratic system was facilitated by rapid industrialization and economic growth, which expanded the middle class and increased demands for political participation. This economic transformation, often referred to as the "Miracle on the Han River," played a crucial role in fostering democratic institutions and practices. The connection between capitalism and democracy in South Korea exemplifies how economic progress can underpin and sustain democratic governance. Daniel Moss, The Japan Times, December 5
The Importance of Being Earnest: Strengthening ASEAN-India Relations in an Evolving World. The ASEAN-India relationship must address strategic gaps and move beyond symbolic cooperation to fulfill its potential. At the recent ASEAN-India Network of Think Tanks (AINTT) Roundtable, discussions focused on trade, sustainability, and digitalization but failed to engage India’s strategic role in Southeast Asia. India’s cautious approach, aiming to avoid perceptions of assertiveness, contrasts with ASEAN’s preference for safer functional cooperation, limiting deeper ties. Initiatives like the Act East Policy and Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative lack robust implementation and regional endorsement. To advance as comprehensive strategic partners, ASEAN and India must embrace strategic alignment, promote inter-regional connectivity through BIMSTEC and IORA, and craft a shared Global South agenda. A change from cautious diplomacy to deeper engagement is essential to ensure the partnership is meaningful and future-ready amidst global uncertainties.
Yanitha Meena Louis, FULCRUM, December 6.