China

China, Russia discuss Ukraine, reach ‘consensus’ on Japan during Chinese minister’s visit. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Moscow produced what Beijing called broad consensus with Russia on Ukraine and Japan, amid tension with Tokyo over remarks on Taiwan. The sides vowed closer coordination against what they label Japanese far right remilitarisation and pledged continued strategic communication on the Ukraine war as Western envoys also sought progress in peace talks. Xiuhao Chen and Joe Cash, Reuters, December 3

China ramps up surveillance equipment at Spratly Islands bases: U.S. think tank. China has upgraded surveillance and electronic warfare systems across its Spratly Islands outposts to sharpen intelligence gathering in the South China Sea, according to satellite analysis by a U.S. think tank. New radar sites, antenna fields and mobile jamming vehicles at Mischief, Subi and Fiery Cross reefs boost coverage and could let Beijing disrupt others’ use of the electromagnetic spectrum in a conflict. Zhao Ziwen, South China Morning Post, December 3

Bessent moves to placate Beijing after Trump signs bill on deepening ties with Taiwan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the United States as an ally of both China and Taiwan while insisting Washington’s relationships remain unchanged after President Donald Trump signed a law deepening ties with the island. He defended strategic ambiguity at the DealBook Summit, refused to say if the U.S. would defend Taiwan, and warned that disruption of Taiwan’s chip supplies is a global economic risk. Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, December 3

EU revives China de-risking plans amid rare earth chokehold and overcapacity risks. The European Union is reviving its China de risking drive with two blueprints that sharpen economic security tools and curb reliance on Chinese critical minerals, including rare earths. An economic security communication would coordinate anti coercion, subsidy and procurement measures, while a ReSource EU action plan channels €3 billion into raw material projects and restricts scrap magnet exports to force companies to diversify from China. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, December 3

Chinese former anti-graft senior official sentenced to 15 years for bribery. Li Gang, a former senior investigator at China’s top anti corruption watchdog, received a 15 year prison term and a 6 million yuan fine for taking more than 102 million yuan in bribes, with illicit gains confiscated. The court cited extensive abuse of office across Sichuan, Yunnan and central Party posts, while granting leniency for his cooperation and restitution. Global Times, December 3

Japan

LDP draft to cut 3 Lower House seats in Tokyo, 2 in Osaka. An LDP draft would cut three single seat districts in Tokyo and two in Osaka as part of a coalition deal with Nippon Ishin to shrink the Lower House by 45 seats, about 10% of its 465 members. Twenty proportional representation seats and 25 single seat districts across 20 prefectures would disappear, a redistribution based on the 2020 census that is likely to face resistance. The Asahi Shimbun, December 3

Japan moves to export defense command system to Philippines. Japan is preparing to export an air defense command and control system to the Philippines, integrating radar and sensor data to track enemy aircraft and missiles and coordinate responses. The transfer fits existing “warning” and “surveillance” export categories and would link previously supplied Japanese radar units into a shared air defense network between the two countries. Mizuki Sato, The Asahi Shimbun, December 3

South Korea

Assembly committee passes bill on special insurrection tribunal. A parliamentary committee in South Korea approved a bill to create a special tribunal dedicated to cases linked to former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed martial law attempt, sending it to a plenary vote amid a boycott by the People Power Party. The bill would set multiple courts for insurrection trials, extend maximum detention to one year and broaden espionage and judicial misconduct offenses. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, December 3

South Korea’s Lee praises Trump, hopes US can resume North Korea dialogue. President Lee Jae Myung praised Donald Trump as a realist and master of dealmaking after two summits and a trade agreement that includes a $350 billion U.S. investment package. He voiced hope Trump can entice Kim Jong Un back to talks while stressing pragmatic diplomacy and stable ties with China, including a planned visit to Beijing. Ju-min Park and Joyce Lee, Reuters, December 3

South Korea prosecutors seek 15-year jail term for ex-first lady Kim. South Korean prosecutors sought a combined 15 year prison term for former first lady Kim Keon Hee on charges including stock manipulation, illegal political fundraising and taking bribes from the Unification Church. They also requested fines and penalties of about 2.94 billion won as courts prepare verdicts for Kim and other former top officials tied to Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law scandal. Heejin Kim and Joyce Lee, Reuters, December 3

South Korea parliament hosts ‘dark tour’ to revisit martial law sites. More than 200 South Koreans joined a National Assembly “dark tour” marking the first anniversary of ousted president Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration. Visitors retraced lawmakers’ escape over parliament walls and viewed the field used by helicopter borne troops. Speaker Woo Won Shik guided the tour, while Defense Minister Ahn Gyu Back apologized for the military’s role as Yoon now faces insurrection trial. Ju-min Park, Reuters, December 3

North Korea

Gov’t 2026 budget for inter-Korean cooperative projects restored to over 1 tln won. The unification ministry’s 2026 budget has risen to 1.24 trillion won, including 1.002 trillion won for the inter-Korean cooperation fund, topping 1 trillion won for the first time in three years as Seoul seeks to revive exchanges and economic projects with North Korea. The plan also funds a coexistence center in Seoul and a DMZ tourist zone. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, December 3

North Korean military expands sniper training under Kim Jong Un’s orders for ‘training revolution’. Sniper and special operations units are being reorganized around distinct combat missions as Pyongyang pursues precision strike capabilities learned from the Russia Ukraine war. Training now produces multi purpose agents, rotates troops through varied terrain, and covers support staff and equipment operators, while new guidelines, outdoor ranges and priority gear supplies anchor Kim’s so called training, ideology and tactics revolution. Jeong Seo-yeong, Daily NK, December 3

Thailand

Charter bill ‘likely’ to pass 2nd reading, senator says. Senator Norasate Prachyakorn said the committee vetting the constitutional amendment bill expects it to clear its second reading, with only technical wording still under review. He said a tentative draft has been circulated to senators and may be explained in a briefing session. Norasate also urged the prime minister to delay a possible Dec. 12 dissolution while floods require a fully functioning government. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, December 3

Anutin vows to comply with charter if censured, affirms House dissolution no later than Jan. 31. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul says he will respect constitutional procedures if the opposition files a censure motion and confirms his government will step down no later than Jan. 31. He downplays speculation about a political crisis on Dec. 12, cites flood response as his priority, and says border operations against Cambodian encroachers will continue regardless of House dissolution. The Nation, December 3

Philippines

Gov’t urged to be cautious in tapping fishermen for WPS monitoring. An international law expert warned that equipping Filipino fishermen with communication devices for West Philippine Sea monitoring risks mirroring Chinese and Vietnamese maritime militias without comparable legal and security protections. She said poorly trained, lightly equipped civilians could stray into foreign territorial seas and be seen as restricting other states’ freedom of navigation, urging clearer protocols and safeguards before expanding community based monitoring. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, December 3

19 Chinese warships patrol areas near Scarborough Shoal. The Armed Forces of the Philippines monitored 19 People’s Liberation Army Navy warships in Philippine waters around Bajo de Masinloc throughout November, roughly matching previous months. Retired justice Antonio Carpio warned China could set up a monitoring station under a planned nature reserve, citing past militarization of reefs, while the AFP highlighted 24/7 patrols and cooperation with fishermen and allies to prevent that. Izel Abanilla, The Manila Times, December 3

Taiwan

Taiwan says China sometimes stages mock attacks on foreign navy ships in strait. Taiwan’s national security chief said China’s military sometimes mobilizes ships and aircraft to simulate attacks on foreign navy vessels transiting the Taiwan Strait and to assert control over the waterway. He said eight countries’ navies, including the United States, Britain, France and New Zealand, have made 12 passages this year, with Taiwan sharing intelligence during such missions. Ben Blanchard and Francesco Guarascio, Reuters, December 3

Opposition demand for Lai to be questioned over special budget ‘unconstitutional’: premier. Premier Cho Jung-tai said opposition demands for President Lai Ching-te to be questioned in the Legislature over a NT$1.25 trillion special defense budget are unconstitutional, citing an October 2024 Constitutional Court ruling that removed lawmakers’ power to interrogate the president. He urged Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party lawmakers to resume reviewing the bill, which funds T-Dome air defenses and U.S. weapons procurement announced Nov. 26. Sean Lin, Focus Taiwan, December 3

Kyrgyzstan

Potential for energy crisis in Kyrgyzstan rising. Kyrgyzstan faces a looming winter energy crisis as extremely low water in the Toktogul reservoir curbs hydropower output, forcing an Almaty agreement with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to limit generation while importing electricity to secure heating. Bishkek imposes nighttime power saving rules, pursues a 15 year National Water Strategy to modernize reservoirs and irrigation, and warns climate change is intensifying water stress. Eurasianet, December 3

Afghanistan

Taliban arrests suspects after deadly attacks on Chinese citizens near Tajik-Afghan border. Taliban authorities say two suspects have been arrested after twin attacks on Chinese workers in Tajikistan’s border regions left five dead and several injured. The men were detained in Maymay district in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province, from where militants allegedly crossed for assaults on Nov. 26 and Nov. 30. Tajikistan tightened security after President Emomali Rahmon’s emergency meeting and China demanded stronger protection for its citizens. Vagit Ismailov, Times of Central Asia, December 3

Afghan Taliban minister says U.S. shooting has nothing to do with his people or government. Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said a Washington shooting that killed one National Guard soldier and critically wounded another has nothing to do with Afghans or the Taliban government. He called it an individual crime and blamed the United States for training and relocating the suspect Rahmanullah Lakanwal. Mohammad Yunus Yawar, Reuters, December 3

Fresh round of Afghanistan-Pakistan talks fails to reach a deal, officials say. Officials from Pakistan and Afghanistan say fresh peace talks in Saudi Arabia produced no breakthrough to resolve tensions after deadly border clashes in October, though both sides agreed to maintain a fragile ceasefire. Pakistan demands Kabul give a written pledge to act against anti Pakistan militants it blames for recent attacks, while the Taliban reject responsibility for security inside Pakistan. Mushtaq Ali, Mohammad Yunus Yawar, Ariba Shahid, Jonathan Spicer, and Asif Shahzad, Reuters, December 3

East Asia

China’s EV dominance sparks EU retaliation. Chinese electric vehicles gain a commanding share of domestic sales and exports through initial industrial planning, support for mass demand, dense supply chains, and heavy public subsidies that cut production costs. The European Union responds with countervailing duties after concluding that Chinese firms receive a scale of state support that exceeds that of producers in Europe and fears collapse of its own EV industry. Chinese companies expand manufacturing inside Europe and China challenges tariffs through the WTO while floating minimum import prices. High cost advantages mean present tariffs may fail to curb Chinese expansion, so both sides need compromise that blends price commitments with selective duties on resistant firms. ZhongXiang Zhang, East Asia Forum, December 3

Foreign Aid With Chinese Characteristics. China has expanded foreign aid across the global South, but government agencies funnel extra support to states that chair regional bodies such as ASEAN and the African Union, not to those on the UN Security Council. Countries holding these chairs receive several times more agency financing, which helps Beijing shape agendas on issues like the South China Sea and resource rules while avoiding open confrontation in universal forums. Policy and commercial banks follow commercial logic, so the most political money comes from a small slice of total Chinese flows. For the United States and partners, serious competition with China requires attention to regional organizations, investment in their capacity and careful separation of strategic aid from routine development finance. Alicia R. Chen, Foreign Affairs, December 3

China’s Military Machine Shouldn’t Run on American Chips. The export of Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips to China would weaken the United States’ security and industrial leadership. The GAIN AI Act would have treated sales like arms transfers, with congressional review and Commerce Department certification that exports do not undercut domestic firms, but lobbying helped remove the measure from the defense bill. China pursues military civil fusion and acquires U.S. chips for the People’s Liberation Army, while Chinese firms such as Tencent, Huawei and Alibaba could pair Nvidia hardware with frontier models and undercut American rivals in foreign markets. Trump’s AI policy should block such transfers and policymakers must place national defense above corporate dependence on Chinese demand. Josh Hodges and Michael Sobolik, Foreign Policy, December 3

A Surrogacy Silk Road: Chinese Parents Head West for Babies. Chinese citizens are turning to a new surrogacy route through Georgia and other post Soviet states, where commercial surrogacy is legal and prices remain below those in Western countries. Domestic surrogacy is banned in China, assisted reproduction is restricted to married heterosexual couples and online discussion faces censorship, so wealthier would be parents rely on foreign clinics and Chinese brokers who package medical care, travel and legal support. Many clients are gay men or infertile couples who seek genetic continuity and respond to pressure from parents and a low national birth rate. Recruitment of Central Asian surrogate mothers, weak regulation and scams create risks, yet authorities tolerate overseas surrogacy provided births support China’s demographic outlook. Emma Belmonte, China Observers, December 3

From micro-dramas to video games, Chinese entertainment is booming. China’s entertainment sector surges through short mobile micro dramas, hit animated films and popular video games, with revenue from paid clips set to pass cinema ticket sales and tens of thousands of rapid-fire series produced each year. Tech giants such as Tencent, ByteDance, Alibaba and Meituan finance studios and shape business models that mix streaming, fan communities and ecommerce, while platforms like Douyin, Bilibili and AliFish connect content, merchandise and live sales. The industry depends on asset-light code-based projects, and enduring franchises remain uncertain. The Communist Party maintains ideological limits yet sponsors animation parks, tax support and looser rules for television and games, leaving a growing market that tests how much freedom censors will tolerate. The Economist, December 3

The end of LDP hegemony in Japan. Japan enters a post-hegemony era as the Liberal Democratic Party loses its secure majority and must govern through a fragile alliance with the Japan Innovation Party and issue-based bargains in the Diet. Policy-making changes from internal party committees to open parliamentary negotiation, which heightens the risk of gridlock and no-confidence votes. The LDP base shrinks and skews toward older voters while younger citizens drift toward small nationalist or centrist parties. Opposition forces remain fragmented, so competitive multiparty politics emerges without a clear alternative government, and both ruling and opposition parties face pressure to adapt to demographic and ideological change. Yasuo Takao, East Asia Forum, December 2

Japan’s analog bureaucracy holds back a digital economy. Japan’s system for criminal record certificates demands institutional sponsorship, physical visits to police or consular offices and long waits for sealed paper documents for routine employment or visa checks. Peer countries use online application systems, quick processing and digital verification, so these frictions expose a gap in Japan’s administrative capacity despite strong performance in tax collection, infrastructure and disaster response. Slow procedures delay careers and discourage international engagement. Reforms include citizen initiated requests, digital applications and issuance, public time targets, secure electronic verification and strict privacy rules, which would align state services with Japan’s advanced private infrastructure. Charles Crabtree, Lowy Institute, December 3

How Capable Are the U.S. and Japan of Intervening in a Taiwan Conflict? Japan lacks capacity to intervene alone in a Taiwan war and the United States requires forward bases so both would act together or not at all. The study estimates the United States could assemble about four hundred fighters in theater and Japan more than three hundred, producing a force dominated by F35s, supported by carriers, submarines and bases in Japan, Guam and the Philippines. The PLA Navy would enter the Philippine Sea with fewer capable carriers, long supply lines and exposed flanks threatened by allied aircraft and submarines. Missile forces cannot offset shortfalls in carrier numbers and long range fighters. A serious United States and Japan intervention would inflict heavy losses on all sides and force China to divert vast resources. The World from Multiple Angles, U.S.-China Perception Monitor, December 3

South Asia

The India Trump Made: How American Bullying Is Shaping Indian Foreign Policy. Over the past decade, India has moved closer to the United States while keeping formal alliances at arm’s length, seeking investment, defense cooperation, and advanced technology. Trump’s return has strained that bet through steep tariffs tied to Russian oil purchases and new favor for Pakistan, which pushes New Delhi to display warmer ties with Moscow and Beijing without true alignment. Indian leaders double down on a strategy of multialignment that keeps the United States as the primary partner yet reduces dependence through deeper links with Europe, Japan, Australia and Gulf states. Growing trade, a new EU-India Trade and Technology Council and shared worries about China support this change, so American pressure produces a more autonomous India. James Crabtree and Rudra Chaudhuri, Foreign Affairs, December 3

To be a global AI center, India must modernize its power infrastructure. India seeks a place in the global AI supply chain but has modest data center capacity and weak infrastructure for power and water. The country generates a large share of world data yet holds a small share of server capacity, and grid losses exceed the global average, which forces operators to rely on backup generation. Water stress in key states threatens large facilities. Bond purchases that tie big data centers to upgrades in National Thermal Power Corp projects, future captive plants for mega campuses, and limited data localization for sensitive sectors would be beneficial. Partnerships with advanced chip producers and unified rules on efficiency would support a regional digital hub based on reliable low carbon electricity. Anwesha Sen, Nikkei Asia, December 3

Pakistan edges towards a ‘two front’ crisis. Talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan broke down after Qatar and Turkiye mediated three rounds that did not contain border clashes or cross-border militancy. Pakistan accuses Kabul of tolerating the Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan and other insurgents who exploit the contested Durand Line and grievances in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Skirmishes and Pakistani strikes have closed key crossings, hurt trade and caused civilian deaths. India’s renewed diplomatic mission and aid in Kabul deepen Islamabad’s fear of encirclement and sharpen a possible crisis on both eastern and western borders. China and Russia press for restraint while seeking protection of their own interests. Durable stability needs targeted security measures, political outreach in Pashtun regions and a structured process to dismantle militant sanctuaries. Sajjad Ashraf, East Asia Forum, December 3

Asia Daily: December 4, 2025