News
South China Sea: Philippines says over 135 Chinese boats ‘swarming’ reef off its coast. The Philippines has reported an alarming increase in the presence of over 135 Chinese vessels around Whitsun Reef, locally known as Julian Felipe Reef, in the South China Sea. The boats, identified as part of the Chinese maritime militia, were initially counted at 111 on November 13 but grew in number, prompting the deployment of Philippine Coast Guard patrol boats. The situation, described as "illegal" by the Philippine Coast Guard, escalates ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea, where several nations, including China, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam, assert overlapping claims. Beijing's extensive territorial claims, despite international tribunal rulings against them, continue to be a point of contention in the region, known for its significant petroleum reserves. South China Morning Post, December 3
India agrees to withdraw soldiers from Maldives, President Muizzu says. The Indian government has consented to withdraw its military personnel from the Maldives, as announced by Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu. This follows Muizzu's electoral pledge to revise the country's "India first" policy and involves the removal of about 75 Indian military staff. The decision reflects the shifting dynamics in the Indian Ocean region, where India and China are competing for influence. As part of the agreement, India and the Maldives will establish a high-level committee to address issues concerning development projects. Mohamed Junayd Krishn Kaushik, Reuters, December 3
India’s BJP wins three of four state polls months before national election. In a significant development, India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on course to win three of the four key state elections, signaling strong voter support ahead of the national elections due in less than six months. The BJP is poised to take over Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan from the Indian National Congress and secure a fifth term in Madhya Pradesh. Despite these gains, the Congress party maintains its lead in Telangana. These results are seen as a bellwether for the national mood, particularly as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a third consecutive term. The elections, marked by issues such as unemployment and social tensions, also set the stage for a new opposition alliance, led by the Congress, to challenge the BJP's dominance at the national level. Al Jazeera, December 3'
US Commerce chief warns against China 'threat'. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, speaking at a defense forum in California, highlighted the growing tension between the U.S. and China over semiconductors and cutting-edge technologies. She emphasized the need for the U.S. to prevent China from accessing these technologies, vital for national security. Raimondo revealed measures implemented in October to restrict the export of advanced chips to China, particularly those used in artificial intelligence (AI) development, to hinder their military use. She underscored the importance of balancing business interests with national security and the rule of law. Citing Nvidia's adaptation to these restrictions, Raimondo pointed out the industry's response to export controls and stressed the need for more stringent enforcement and better funding for her department to maintain America's leadership in AI and semiconductor design. Channel News Asia, Channel News Asia, December 3
China halts customs procedures for urea exports to S. Korea. China has recently stopped customs procedures for urea exports to South Korea, leading Seoul to seek explanations and assess the situation. Although Chinese authorities have yet to provide an official response, the South Korean government is actively monitoring its urea solution inventory and discussing the issue across multiple ministries. This halt is presumed to be due to China's internal supply and demand considerations rather than a formal export control measure. The situation recalls the disruptions faced by South Korea in 2021 following China's restriction of urea exports amid a trade dispute with Australia. Currently, South Korea's urea inventory is sufficient for about three months, including planned imports from Vietnam, Japan, and others, excluding China. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, December 3
Japan mulls delaying launch of Mars moon probe from 2024 to 2026. Japan is contemplating postponing its mission to collect surface samples from a Martian moon, initially slated for 2024, to 2026. This delay is due to issues with the H3 rocket, crucial for launching the probe. The setback follows the failed inaugural launch of the H3 rocket in March, which resulted in the loss of an important satellite. The planned mission involves landing on Phobos, one of Mars' moons, to collect surface samples, expected to provide insights into the Martian system's evolution. Japan remains a strong contender to be the first to achieve this feat, despite international efforts from the United States, Europe, and China facing similar challenges. Kyodo News, December 3
North Korea begins spy satellite operations, KCNA says. North Korea has commenced operations of its first military reconnaissance satellite, according to the state news agency KCNA. This development follows the satellite's launch on November 21, which has led to new sanctions from the U.S. and its allies due to the heightened regional tensions. The satellite operation center in Pyongyang started its mission recently, aiming to relay information to the army and other key units. However, Pyongyang has yet to release any images from the satellite, leading to speculation about its capabilities. This event has escalated tensions in the region, with North Korea reinstating heavy weapons and guard posts in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) as a reaction to Seoul's suspension of a part of the 2018 military accord between the two Koreas. Meanwhile, South Korea has launched its first spy satellite with SpaceX and plans to deploy a total of five by 2025 to ensure continuous surveillance over the Korean peninsula. Jihoon Lee, Reuters, December 3
Việt Nam wishes Cambodia to continue to pay attention to Vietnamese-origin people. A delegation from Việt Nam's Foreign Ministry, led by Deputy Minister Lê Thị Thu Hằng, visited Cambodia from November 30 to December 3 to strengthen bilateral cooperation and friendship. During the visit, the delegation engaged with Cambodian officials, emphasizing the importance of the Vietnamese community in Cambodia. Deputy Minister Hằng expressed gratitude to Cambodia for providing favorable conditions for Vietnamese-origin people in Cambodia and urged continuous attention and support for resolving issues related to this community. Both sides also discussed enhancing trade and tourism, with proposals to connect key highways between Phnom Penh and HCM City. Cambodian representatives reaffirmed their commitment to creating stable conditions for foreigners, including Vietnamese-origin people, in compliance with Cambodian law. Vietnam News, December 3
Think of what happened to Hong Kong when you vote, Taiwan president says. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen urged voters to consider the situation in Hong Kong when voting in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections on January 13. She emphasized the need for peace backed by strong defenses amid China's increased military pressure and claims over Taiwan. Tsai criticized the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), for framing the election as a choice between war and peace, asserting the importance of maintaining a "dignified peace." Reflecting on Hong Kong's experience under Chinese rule, Tsai highlighted the importance of self-defense without provoking neighbors. The KMT, favoring closer ties with China, has promised to reopen talks if victorious, while opposing Taiwan's independence to avoid conflict. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, December 3
Long Form
Hong Kong’s Choiceless Elections: A Cautionary Tale for Taiwan. Hong Kong's recent elections, characterized by a lack of genuine political competition and choice, signal the end of its once-vibrant political culture and serve as a stark warning for Taiwan. The city, which never fully achieved democracy but maintained aspects like free speech and judicial independence, has seen a significant shift. Now, only candidates approved by China are allowed to run, reducing the elections to a mere pretense of democratic rule. This controlled political environment in Hong Kong reflects China's broader expansionary vision, with Taiwan being a potential next target. The situation in Hong Kong illustrates the challenges and risks faced by regions under China's influence, emphasizing the importance of vigilance and autonomy in maintaining democratic values and systems. By Neal E. Robbins, The Diplomat, December 4
South Korea’s Failed World Expo Bid Sparks President Yoon’s First Apology. South Korea's failed bid to host the World Expo 2030 in Busan led to President Yoon Suk-yeol's first public apology. The Bureau International des Expositions voted overwhelmingly in favor of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, over Busan, which was a surprising and significant defeat for South Korea. The government and media had previously anticipated a close contest and even the possibility of overtaking Riyadh in the second round of voting. The unexpected wide margin of votes – 119 for Riyadh and only 29 for Busan – was a shock to the South Korean public and government. This event has caused considerable unease and reflection within the country, leading to President Yoon's apology and raising questions about South Korea's international standing and diplomatic strategies. By Eunwoo Lee, The Diplomat, December 4
Japanese Macroeconomic Policy Is Getting Muddled, December 4, 2023
Japan's recent decision to cut personal income taxes has raised questions about the logic and sustainability of its macroeconomic policy. The government's justification for the tax rebate, citing a return of increased tax revenue to citizens, seems contradictory given Japan's challenges in funding defense spending and birthrate-boosting programs. The country's government debt to GDP ratio has risen to 260%, indicating that spending is outpacing revenue. The tax cut decision reflects a broader issue of fiscal discipline loss and potential dysfunction in Japan's political and bureaucratic system. This move, along with the silence of many Japanese economists and government bureaucrats, suggests a concerning trend in fiscal policy. By Masaaki Shirakawa, Nikkei Asia, December 4
The Lost Art: China's Museums, Economy, and Collections. China's art scene, once marked by significant purchases and a growing global presence, is facing challenges amid the country's economic downturn. A notable moment in 2014 exemplifies the peak of China's influence in the art world, when Chinese billionaire Liu Yiqian purchased a Ming dynasty tea cup for $36 million. This event symbolized China's burgeoning role in the global art market. However, the current economic situation has led to a spate of museum closures and prominent collectors selling off their collections, indicating a shift in the country's art and cultural landscape. This change reflects the broader economic challenges faced by China and its impact on various sectors, including the arts. By Tom Seymour, The Wire China, December 3
Beijing is Not Returning to its Reform Agenda. Despite recent measures by Beijing to support the private sector and households, along with a charm offensive towards foreign companies, experts Max J. Zenglein and Jacob Gunter argue that these steps do not indicate a return to a reform agenda in China. The easing of capital controls and promises to relax cross-border data flow restrictions might suggest a shift in policy, but these are seen as minor corrections rather than a fundamental change in direction. China's economy continues to face substantial challenges, and the government's focus remains on geopolitical objectives rather than deep economic reforms. This stance implies that the recent measures are tactical rather than indicative of a strategic pivot towards more open and reformist policies. By Max J. Zenglein and Jacob Gunter, The Wire China, December 3
Everyone Wins with Better Asian AI Governance, December 3, 2023
Effective AI governance in Asia is crucial for leveraging the digital revolution amidst challenging economic conditions. Jacob Taylor emphasizes the importance of regional coordination to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth. Challenges include the concentration of AI power among a few major firms and the exclusion of marginalized groups. Solutions involve promoting diverse stakeholder participation, balancing data ownership, and enhancing SME-driven AI systems. Regional collaboration in AI governance can foster responsible and transparent stewardship of AI technologies. By Jacob Taylor, East Asia Forum, December 3