Asia Daily: December 30, 2025

China

China suggests ‘illegal’ Philippine fishing is damaging disputed Scarborough Shoal. China issued an ecosystem report saying the coral reef is in good condition with 135 reef-building coral species. It said “illegal fishing” and intrusive Philippine activity threaten the shoal. Officials cited 38.8% coral coverage and promised tougher enforcement. Fan Chen, South China Morning Post, December 29

Cambodia and Thailand agree to resume exchanges after meeting with China. Cambodia and Thailand agreed in China-hosted talks to consolidate their ceasefire and restore exchanges. Wang Yi met Sihasak Phuangketkeow and Prak Sokhonn in Yuxi and said the truce must not collapse. Beijing said it can help monitor the ceasefire, deliver aid, and clear mines. Vanessa Cai, South China Morning Post, December 29

South Korea

Lee calls for 'unity, inclusion' amid backlash over his pick of opposition figure as minister. President Lee Jae Myung called for unity and inclusion after nominating former conservative lawmaker Lee Hye-hoon to lead the new Ministry of Planning and Budget. Critics cited her past support for Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed martial law bid, and she apologized. Lee said returning the presidential office to Cheong Wa Dae closes the Yongsan era and signals restored democracy. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, December 30

Ruling party's floor leader resigns amid allegations of misconduct, abuse of power. Democratic Party floor leader Kim Byung-kee resigned after allegations of preferential treatment and abuse of power. He apologized for conduct including using free Korean Air accommodation and misconduct tied to family members. Kim said he stepped down to avoid burdening the party and President Lee Jae Myung, 200 days after taking the post. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, December 30

North Korea

N. Korean officials' license plates indicate power hierarchy in regime. Yonhap analysis of state TV footage linked plate numbers to officials’ rank. Kim Jong Un’s limousine carried “7·27 0001,” while Premier Pak Thae-song rode with “0002” and Choe Ryong-hae with “0003.” Experts said Pak’s number suggests Kim has elevated the Cabinet to drive economic policy and livelihoods projects. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, December 30

North Korea leader Kim says multiple rocket launch system key to artillery, KCNA says. KCNA said Kim Jong Un inspected a munitions factory producing multiple rocket launchers. He said the system will anchor modernized long-range artillery for fast precision strikes and strategic attacks. State media showed him reviewing a new missile production line. Jack Kim, Reuters, December 29

Vietnam

PM chairs first meeting of government steering committee for macroeconomic management. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired the committee’s first meeting in Hanoi. Officials said 2025 shocks hit Vietnam’s open economy, but inflation stayed controlled and GDP growth was about 8%. Chinh set a 2026 double-digit growth goal and directed creation of a national gold trading exchange and a state-run real estate and land-use rights trading center. Vietnam News, December 29

Thailand

Thaksin’s woes hurt poll bid. The Supreme Court ordered Thaksin Shinawatra back to prison in the “14th floor” case. Judges said his condition was not urgent and his hospital stay was not equivalent to custody. The attorney-general appealed his acquittal in a lese-majeste case, limiting his ability to campaign for Pheu Thai. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, December 29

Democrats, Pheu Thai unveil rival visions. Democrats unveiled a poverty plan calling for clean governance, growth, and fair distribution. Abhisit Vejjajiva said 15 years of stagnation pushed household debt near 90% of GDP. Pheu Thai proposed one-time relief letting some unsecured non-performing loans under 200,000 baht settle by paying 10%. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, December 27

Myanmar

Myanmar pro-military party official says ‘winning’ junta-run poll. A USDP official told AFP the party is winning a majority in the first phase. Watchdogs and the U.N. rights chief condemned the vote as entrenching military rule after the 2021 coup. Results are pending, with more voting on Jan. 11 and Jan. 25. The Irrawaddy, December 29

Cambodia

18 Cambodian soldiers expected to be released on December 30. Prak Sokhonn said 18 soldiers will be released at noon Dec. 30, 72 hours after the ceasefire began. He spoke after talks in Yunnan with Wang Yi and Thai FM Sihasak Phuangketkeow. Sokhonn said the ICRC is coordinating and Thai troops have held them since July 29. Khmer Times, December 29

Philippines

China's actions in West Philippine Sea escalate fisherfolk tension. Pablo Rosales, Pangisda-Pilipinas chair, said China’s presence threatens small-scale fishers’ livelihoods. A boatman stranded near Scarborough Shoal received food and water from a Chinese navy ship. Rosales and civic leader Jose Antonio Goitia said China used the incident for narrative control, while Coast Guard spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela disputed its account. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, December 29

Congress ratifies P6.79T budget for 2026. The Senate and House ratified a P6.793 trillion General Appropriations Bill. Some senators warned that medical assistance and unprogrammed funds could spur politicking, and two voted no. The 4,300-page enrolled bill goes to Malacañang for review. Bernadette E. Tamayo, Reina C. Tolentino, The Manila Times, December 29

Indonesia

Indonesia's free meal scheme to reach 80 million recipients by April, behind target. Zulkifli Hasan said the school-meals program will reach 80 million recipients by April. The goal was 55 million by early January and 83 million by end-2025. The agency said 11,000 children have had food poisoning, and 2026 funding will rise to 335 trillion rupiah. Fransiska Nangoy, Reuters, December 29

Malaysia

Malaysia raids several firms as part of anti-graft probe into army procurement. MACC said it searched firms over alleged bribery tied to army procurement projects. Azam Baki said six bank accounts of a suspect and family members were frozen. Defense Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin said army chief Muhammad Hafizuddeain Jantan was put on leave pending a probe. Rozanna Latiff, Reuters, December 29

Former Malaysian PM Muhyiddin to resign as chair of opposition bloc. Muhyiddin Yassin said he will step down as Perikatan Nasional chairman on Jan. 1. He led the bloc since 2020 and resigned as prime minister after 17 months. His exit follows tensions after PAS accused Bersatu of a leadership coup in Perlis. Rozanna Latiff, Reuters, December 30

Taiwan

PLA begins second day of live-fire exercises around Taiwan. The PLA opened a second day of Justice Mission 2025 drills with live fire north of Taiwan. The Eastern Theatre Command said ground forces used long-range firepower and will drill maritime strikes and anti-submarine operations. Taiwan said 130 aircraft and 22 vessels operated nearby, disrupting 850 flights. Sylvie Zhuang, South China Morning Post, December 30

DPP, KMT trade blame over China policy as PRC drills draw condemnation. China began “Justice Mission 2025” drills around Taiwan and set live-fire zones on Tuesday. DPP spokesman Wu Cheng said KMT chair Cheng Li-wen’s planned Beijing trip and meeting with Xi Jinping puts Beijing ahead of Taiwan’s security. Cheng said Lai’s confrontational approach raised risks, while TPP chair Huang Kuo-chang urged Beijing to act responsibly. Yeh Su-ping, Liu Kuan-ting, Chen Chun-hua and Evelyn Kao, Focus Taiwan, December 29

Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s Gen-Z party faces revolt over Islamist alliance, risking its future. National Citizen Party allied with Jamaat-e-Islami for the Feb. 12 election. At least 30 senior leaders opposed the pact, and several resigned, including Tasnim Jara. Analysts said the deal may help Jamaat while blurring NCP’s youth-driven anti-nepotism message. Tora Agarwala and Ruma Paul, Reuters, December 29

Nepal

Nepal's former rapper to run for PM in key vote after Gen Z protests. Balendra Shah, Kathmandu mayor known as Balen, joined the Rastriya Swatantra Party before March 5. The deal makes him prime minister if RSP wins, while Rabi Lamichhane stays chief. They said they will address September protests that killed 77 and drove K.P. Sharma Oli out. Gopal Sharma, Reuters, December 29

Tajikistan

Rising border insecurity puts Chinese interests at risk in Tajikistan. Cross-border attacks from Afghanistan have killed more than a dozen people in recent months, including five Chinese nationals working on projects. A Nov. 26 drone strike hit a Chinese-operated gold mine and gunfire targeted workers, and China’s embassy urged citizens to avoid border areas. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, December 29

East Asia

Reimagining the Maritime Silk Road: Sustainable Blue Economy as the Next Frontier of China–ASEAN Cooperation. China and ASEAN face collapsing fisheries, rising sea temperatures, and expanding marine industries that require shared governance. China’s Gross Ocean Product exceeded 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024 and ASEAN’s ocean industries are valued at $1.3 to $2.5 trillion, yet 64% of regional fish stocks face medium to high collapse risk and China’s stocks have fallen up to 90% since the 1950s. China promotes blue bonds, blue carbon investment, offshore renewables, and tighter fisheries rules, while ASEAN advances its Blue Economy Framework, blue carbon finance profiling, and an IUU fishing roadmap. A China–ASEAN Blue Economy Council is proposed to manage resources and disputes in the South China Sea. Pravin Periasamy, Sino-Southeast Initiative, December 29.

America’s Post-Trump China Strategy. Personalized summit diplomacy fails to manage US China rivalry under President Donald Trump, whose volatility contrasts with Xi Jinping’s strategic resolve. Nationalism and domestic politics in both countries reward toughness and widen Sinophobia in the United States, limiting space for compromise. Leader summits since 1972 delivered few results, and Xi Trump meetings in 2017 preceded tariffs and a trade war. Trump and Xi plan two summits in 2026 after an October APEC meeting in Busan, and unclear agendas point to stasis on trade, technology, people exchange, and Taiwan. A new US $11 billion Taiwan arms package raises risk. Conflict management calls for a post-Trump change and a new engagement architecture, anchored in restored US global leadership. Stephen S. Roach, Project Syndicate, December 29

Southeast Asia

Economic security comes from openness in Southeast Asia. Major powers treat trade and investment ties as security risks and use tariffs and economic security laws to cut dependence. Southeast Asian states argue that openness protects domestic stability and supports calm relations with partners. ASEAN ministers at the October 2025 summit endorsed a predictable and rules-based multilateral trading system. ASEAN trade with partners outside the region has remained above 75% since the early 2000s and foreign direct investment from outside Southeast Asia exceeded 80% from 2021 to 2023, with trade to GDP ratios above 100% in several economies and 322% in Singapore. Protectionism risks job losses and unrest, as shown by protests in Indonesia in August 2025 and in the Philippines. Openness also supports multi alignment and tariff relief. Arrizal Jaknanihan, East Asia Forum, December 29

Political power shifts, floods and tariffs push the Mekong to the brink. 2025 exposed Mekong vulnerabilities across politics, economics, and climate shocks. Vietnam’s To Lam began institutional reforms. Thailand’s Paetongtarn Shinawatra was suspended in July and removed in August after a leaked call with Hun Sen, amid Thai-Cambodian clashes that killed at least 48 and displaced over 300,000. Myanmar stayed in civil war and its late December election left power balances unchanged. US tariffs began at 36% for Thailand and 49% for Cambodia, then fell to 19% and 19%, with Vietnam at 20%, while Laos and Myanmar faced 40%. Laos carried public debt near 90% of GDP and Myanmar’s GDP was forecast to shrink 2% in the fiscal year ending March 2026. Floods killed over 400 in Vietnam and caused $3.2 billion damage. 2026 brings leadership tests and tighter space for hedging. Nguyen Khac Giang, East Asia Forum, December 29

South Asia

After a year of foreign-policy shocks, India faces hard choices. India has prized strategic autonomy and partnerships without formal alliances. External shocks in 2025 narrowed policy space. The Trump administration imposed 50% tariffs, issued a National Security Strategy that downplayed India and the Quad, and claimed US mediation in the May India-Pakistan ceasefire, which India rejected. Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan, and a Pahalgam terror attack response ended after a three-day escalation and ceasefire. Border frictions with China, turmoil in Nepal, and Bangladesh instability added strain, while Washington revived security ties with Islamabad. India entered 2026 facing trade bargaining with the United States, BRICS leadership demands, and pressure to match slogans with hard choices. Brahma Chellaney, Nikkei Asia, December 29

Central Asia

The China model with different outcomes: Lessons from Kazakhstan and Thailand. Kazakhstan and Thailand adopted state-led development plans tied to Chinese capital, technology, and Belt and Road projects to drive diversification and upgrading. Structural transformation stalled because imitation captured China’s visible tools instead of its discipline. China used rewards and sanctions, intense local competition, export benchmarks, and conditional protection that forced firm learning. Kazakhstan’s strategy ran through SOEs with soft budget constraints and fiscal interventions from 2009 to 2023 that protected incumbents. Thailand relied on tax incentives without strong monitoring, leaving policy performance checks weak. Infrastructure projects produced limited spillovers, and the Thai-Chinese Rayong Industrial Zone stayed detached from local institutions, with Chinese expatriates in technical roles and locals in low-skilled work. Incumbent interests in both countries block disruptive reallocation and delay upgrading. Guanie Lim, ThinkChina, December 29

---