Asia Daily: December 23, 2024
South Korean opposition threatens to impeach Han over martial law counsel. South Korea’s Democratic Party (DP) warned it would impeach acting president Han Duck-soo if he fails to approve a special counsel investigation into President Yoon Suk Yeol’s attempt to impose martial law. Han, who assumed duties after Yoon’s Dec. 14 impeachment, is accused by the DP of enabling Yoon’s actions. The party passed a bill to investigate Yoon for insurrection and other allegations, including corruption involving his wife. Han has denied complicity but apologized for not blocking Yoon’s declaration. Meanwhile, Yoon’s refusal to accept court documents has delayed the impeachment trial process. Hyonhee Shin, Reuters, December 23
Bangladesh tells India it wants former PM Hasina back for 'judicial process.' Bangladesh has formally requested India to extradite former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled to New Delhi in August after being ousted amid violent protests. Acting Foreign Minister Touhid Hossain confirmed Dhaka’s diplomatic communication, emphasizing the need for Hasina to face judicial proceedings for alleged crimes against humanity. India acknowledged receiving the request but declined to comment further. India maintains that Hasina entered the country for safety reasons. Krishna Das, Shivam Patel, Shilpa Jamkhandikar, and Shanima A., Reuters, December 23
Head of Taiwan’s third political party Ko Wen-je set to resign over corruption inquiry. Ko Wen-je, founder of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), plans to step down amid a corruption investigation involving alleged bribes and misappropriated donations during his tenure as Taipei mayor. Ko denies the accusations. The TPP, holding a crucial balance of power in Taiwan's legislature, faces a crisis as Ko’s approval ratings plummet and allegations tarnish its anti-corruption image. The party claims political bias by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, but the case has raised doubts about its integrity and future electoral influence. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, December 23
Taiwan to help Guatemala in cybersecurity. Taiwan plans to assist Guatemala in enhancing its cybersecurity by establishing operations centers and providing information security training. Concerns have arisen due to major Guatemalan banks employing China's Huawei Technologies for their computer systems, amid allegations of security vulnerabilities. Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is preparing a delegation of officials and cybersecurity experts to visit Central and South American allies, including Guatemala, to assess and strengthen their information systems against potential cyber threats. Huang Ching-hsuan and Esme Yeh, Taipei Times, December 24
Govt set to tackle 20 'urgent' bills. The Thai government has outlined plans to address 20 priority bills in the current parliamentary session, including legislation on fisheries and the establishment of a common ticketing system with a flat fare for mass transit. Chief government whip Wisut Chainarun urged MPs to ensure quorum attendance for smooth legislative progress. While four amnesty bills are pending, the Pheu Thai version is expected by January. Recently, the House rejected a referendum bill requiring a double majority by a vote of 326 to 61. Post Reporters, Bangkok Post, December 23
Vietnam set to start first rail link to China, PM says. Vietnam plans to begin construction on a 417-kilometer rail line from Haiphong to the Chinese border by the end of 2024, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh announced. The $11 billion project will link Haiphong, Hanoi, and Lao Cai Province, enhancing trade and tourism with China, its largest trading partner. Discussions between Vietnamese and Chinese officials, alongside successes of similar projects in Laos and China, spurred the decision. The rail line is expected to be part of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Jim Pollard, Asia Financial, December 23
National Assembly begins confirmation hearings for Constitutional Court justice nominees. South Korea's National Assembly commenced confirmation hearings for three Constitutional Court nominees as the court prepares to review President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment trial. The Democratic Party (DP) held hearings for Ma Eun-hyuk and Jeong Gye-seon, opposition-recommended nominees, who pledged to protect constitutional order and fundamental rights. A hearing for Cho Han-chang, a nominee backed by the ruling People Power Party (PPP), is scheduled Tuesday. The PPP disputes acting President Han Duck-soo’s authority to appoint justices and plans to seek legal action if appointments proceed. Woo Jae-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, December 23
Singapore's core inflation falls to 1.9% in November, lowest in three years. Singapore's core inflation rate decreased to 1.9% year-on-year in November, marking the lowest level in nearly three years and falling below economists' forecast of 2.1%. Headline inflation also eased to 1.6% annually, compared to the expected 1.8%. This decline may provide the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) with room to adjust monetary policy, though analysts suggest any changes might occur later in 2025. Despite the easing inflation, MAS has maintained its current policy stance since the last tightening in October 2022. Channel News Asia, December 23
Over 2,500 Okinawans rally against sexual assaults by US military personnel. Thousands gathered in Okinawa on December 22 to protest repeated sexual assaults by U.S. servicemen, demanding accountability from the Japanese and American governments. Organizers adopted a resolution urging preventive measures, apologies, and compensation for victims. The rally followed reports that two U.S. military personnel stationed in Okinawa faced sexual assault cases since March, which the Japanese government failed to disclose to Okinawa despite an established reporting system. Hiroshi Higa, The Mainichi, December 23
China says Philippine plan to deploy midrange missiles would be ‘extremely irresponsible.’ China criticized the Philippines’ plan to acquire midrange missile systems, calling it a provocative move that could escalate regional tensions. Philippine Army Lt. Gen. Roy Galido confirmed negotiations are underway to enhance the country's defense, particularly in the South China Sea. The U.S. has already deployed its Typhon missile system in northern Philippines, capable of firing Tomahawk missiles that reach over 1,000 miles, raising China’s concerns. China’s Foreign Ministry warned the move could undermine regional security. Ken Moritsugu and Teresa Cerojano, AP News, December 23
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan intensify efforts to combat disinformation. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have signed a 2025 cooperation plan to tackle disinformation and fake news, focusing on media content exchange, journalist training, and press secretary education. The agreement, signed in Tashkent, builds on commitments made during Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s August visit to Kazakhstan. Both countries aim to strengthen media integrity through legislative and collaborative efforts while supporting young media professionals. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, December 23
Yoon believes impeachment trial takes priority over martial law probe: lawyer. President Yoon Suk Yeol’s lawyer, Seok Dong-hyeon, stated that Yoon considers his impeachment trial more urgent than investigations into the temporary imposition of martial law. Facing criticism for not complying with summonses or preparatory hearing steps, Yoon maintains that as a sitting, albeit suspended, president, he cannot be compelled to respond to investigative bodies. He questioned the appropriateness of revealing state affairs to investigators and argued the impeachment trial is the proper venue for addressing public concerns. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, December 23
Ukrainian military unveils false IDs used by N.K. troops deployed to Russia: report. Ukraine's military released evidence of falsified identification documents carried by North Korean soldiers killed in Russia's Kursk region, suggesting efforts to obscure their presence. The IDs, featuring Russian names and Tuva listed as the birthplace, lacked photos and had Korean-script signatures. Ukrainian forces allege Russia is concealing battlefield losses and foreign troop involvement. South Korea's spy agency and the Pentagon estimate significant North Korean casualties in the conflict. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, December 23
U.S. launches trade investigation into China’s ‘legacy’ semiconductor chips. The United States has initiated a Section 301 trade investigation into China’s semiconductor practices, accusing Beijing of using anticompetitive means to dominate global markets. The inquiry targets China's production of legacy chips, critical for consumer goods and military equipment, citing state-backed subsidies, forced technology transfers, and opaque regulatory practices. The probe, linked to ongoing US-China tensions over tariffs and export restrictions, follows Biden’s increased measures, including a 50% tax on Chinese semiconductors. Mark Magnier, South China Morning Post, December 23
Thai PM Paetongtarn dispels govt unity doubts. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra affirmed on Monday that the government's unity remains intact, dismissing speculation of internal discord following a golf outing between former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul. She emphasized that their long-standing friendship makes such meetings routine and unrelated to political matters. Anutin corroborated this, stating their discussions were limited to golf and personal topics, not current politics. Mongkol Bangprapa and Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, December 23
Korea provides $13 million for bridge upgrade, road safety. The Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) has allocated $13 million in grant aid to upgrade six bridges and improve road safety on National Road No. 8 in Laos. A groundbreaking ceremony in Vientiane marked the project's start, attended by officials from Laos and South Korea. The project, which includes infrastructure upgrades, safety equipment installation, and training programs, aims to improve travel safety and support trade across Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. The initiative coincides with the upcoming 30th anniversary of Korea-Laos diplomatic ties, reflecting their commitment to a stronger partnership. Vientiane Times, December 23
Vietnam, Sweden build extensive, sustainable foundation for future collaboration. An international seminar in Hanoi marked 55 years of Vietnam-Sweden diplomatic ties, emphasizing Sweden’s contributions to Vietnam’s development in education, science, and technology. Officials discussed expanding cooperation through the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement and focusing on innovation, digital transformation, and sustainable practices. Sweden reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Vietnam’s sustainable development and strengthening bilateral ties. Vietnam News, December 23
America’s ‘Big Security’ Assumptions in Asia-Pacific. The United States is reinforcing its Indo-Pacific strategy, with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)—comprising the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India—serving as its cornerstone. This coalition, initially proposed by Japan's former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2012 as a "democratic security diamond," has evolved into a strategic framework aimed at countering China's regional influence. Under President Joe Biden, the Quad has been elevated to a head-of-state mechanism, facilitating collaboration beyond military exercises to include economic security, maritime security, public health, emerging technologies, and cybersecurity. This expansion reflects a comprehensive "big security" perspective designed to apply pressure on China. The U.S. portrays this competition as a dichotomy between democracy and authoritarianism, seeking to integrate its alliance system to address perceived threats. Notably, the U.S. is deepening its quasi-alliance with India, focusing on defense and military integration. Additionally, Washington has established other partnerships, such as the I2U2 with India, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates, to further its strategic objectives in the region. Zhao Minghao, China-US Focus, December 20
Beijing Needs a China+1 Strategy of Its Own. In response to escalating trade tensions initiated by the U.S. in 2018, China has adopted a 'chuhai' strategy, encouraging its enterprises to 'venture into the open seas' by forming partnerships in regions such as ASEAN, the Gulf, and Latin America. This has led to China surpassing the U.S. as the European Union's largest trading partner for goods and ASEAN becoming China's leading trading partner. However, Chinese companies have encountered challenges, including allegations of domestic interference and reluctance to share technology. Additionally, concerns over China's 'excess capacity' have prompted countries like Mexico and Indonesia to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, aiming to protecy their domestic industries. China's focus on sectors like electric vehicles and solar panels has also faced resistance, exemplified by Brazil's increased import taxes on Chinese products. Brian Wong, China-US Focus, December 20
China’s Struggles with a Consumer Society. China's impressive advancements in infrastructure and technology have not translated into a robust consumer-driven economy. The household consumption share of GDP remains below 40%, significantly lower than the approximately 65% observed in advanced economies. This disparity is attributed to China's political emphasis on stability and control, which contrasts with the individualism and freedom that drive consumer behavior in the West. Initiatives aimed at curbing extravagance and promoting austerity, such as the "mass line" education campaign introduced by President Xi Jinping in 2013, have further suppressed consumer spending. Additionally, regulatory crackdowns on internet-platform companies and the entertainment industry have stifled sectors that could stimulate consumption. The rise of "techno-authoritarianism," characterized by increased surveillance and censorship, also undermines the freedoms that typically encourage consumerism. Consequently, China's efforts to transition to a consumer-led economy face great challenges under its current political and social framework. Stephen Roach, China-US Focus, December 24
Nuclear Fail-Safe: An Opportunity for the World. Despite the singular use of nuclear weapons at the end of World War II, the potential for their unauthorized, inadvertent, or mistaken deployment remains a large concern. The 1964 film "Fail Safe" illustrates such a scenario, where a critical error leads U.S. bombers to mistakenly target Moscow, showing the necessity of robust safeguards to prevent nuclear mishaps. Since the Cold War, the United States has developed the concept of "nuclear fail-safe" and conducted reviews to identify potential vulnerabilities in its nuclear systems. Other nuclear-armed states have implemented strict measures for managing their arsenals. However, the risk of nuclear accidents persists, as evidenced by the U.S. Department of Defense's identification of 32 nuclear weapon accidents, known as "broken arrows," between 1950 and 2000. Notable incidents include the 2007 flight of a U.S. Air Force B-52 bomber armed with six nuclear warheads, unbeknownst to the crew, and a 1995 Russian false alarm that nearly led to a nuclear launch. These events demonstrate the imperative for nuclear-armed nations to maintain and adhere to stringent fail-safe systems to mitigate risks of unauthorized, inadvertent, or mistaken use of nuclear weapons. Zhu Junwei, China-US Focus, December 24
Asia’s Energy Transition Could Jolt the UN Climate Summit to Life. The 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) highlighted Asia's critical role in the global energy transition despite faltering climate finance commitments. South Korea, Japan, and Australia, key regional players, struggled to match previous contributions due to political changes, funding schedules, and election pressures. Singapore made strides with a $500 million low-interest loan pledge, while Indonesia announced plans to expand renewable energy capacity from 1 to 75 GW over 15 years, offering immense investment opportunities. Asia, accounting for 90% of global electricity demand growth since 2015, faces challenges from insufficient climate financing and adaptation investments but remains poised to attract green energy capital. The region's strategic engagement and leadership could accelerate its energy transition and ensure long-term sustainable growth. Christopher Wright and Wataru Nakanishi, East Asia Forum, December 24
Australia–Malaysia Defence Relations Go Arm in Arm. Marking 70 years of diplomatic ties in 2025, Australia and Malaysia maintain a deep defense partnership rooted in history and formalized through the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA). Joint military exercises improve Malaysia’s capabilities, while Australia gains advantages in Southeast Asia. Malaysia values Australia as a middle power that balances regional stability with restraint in handling China, contrasting with more confrontational stances by other nations. However, Malaysia’s aging naval assets and limited maritime defense capabilities necessitate further Australian support in areas like radar upgrades and technical training. Divergent positions on global issues, such as the Middle East conflict, and concerns over the FPDA’s expansion creating friction with China, pose challenges. Strengthening public awareness and careful diplomacy will be key to sustaining this vital relationship. Abdul Rahman Yaacob, East Asia Forum, December 23
Post-Assad Syria: What It Means for China. The sudden ousting of Syria's Assad regime, which had maintained a five-decade-long alliance with China, presents Beijing with geopolitical challenges. China's strategic partnership with Syria encompassed economic interests, including investments in Mediterranean ports, and diplomatic support, as evidenced by China's multiple vetoes of UN Security Council resolutions against Assad. The regime's collapse disrupts China's Belt and Road Initiative plans in the region and raises concerns over the security of Chinese nationals and investments. Additionally, the power vacuum may lead to increased activity by extremist groups, including Uyghur militants, which poses direct security threats to China. In response, Beijing is likely to adopt a cautious approach, emphasizing non-interference while seeking to engage with emerging power structures to safeguard its interests. Scott N. Romaniuk and László Csicsmann, Geopolitical Monitor, December 23
Smuggled Commodities From India and Bangladesh Are Lifelines for Myanmar’s Arakan. In Myanmar's Rakhine State, also known as Arakan, the populace relies heavily on smuggled goods from India and Bangladesh due to blockades imposed by the military regime. These blockades intensified after the Arakan Army's offensive in November 2023, have led to severe shortages of essential commodities. Smuggling operations, particularly through the Kaladan River from India's Mizoram state, have become vital for supplying food and other necessities to the region. However, these clandestine supply lines are insufficient to meet the growing demand, resulting in soaring prices and an impending humanitarian crisis. The situation demonstrates the challenges faced by Arakan's residents amid ongoing conflicts and economic isolation. Rajeev Bhattacharyya, The Diplomat, December 23
What Will Happen to China’s Economy in 2025? China's GDP growth decelerated throughout 2024, with quarterly rates declining from 5.3% to 4.6%, raising concerns about meeting the annual target of around 5%. Contributing factors include the lingering effects of COVID-19 lockdowns, regulatory crackdowns on key sectors, and declining business confidence. Household bank deposits increased by ¥65.4 trillion ($9 trillion) between January 2020 and August 2024, indicating restrained consumer spending. The property sector's downturn, exemplified by Evergrande's financial troubles, and rising local government debt further strain the economy. Additionally, the anticipated return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in 2025, with potential implementation of high tariffs on Chinese goods, poses external challenges. In response, Chinese authorities are expected to adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, including increasing the budget deficit to 4% of GDP and implementing measures to boost domestic consumption, aiming to stabilize and stimulate economic growth amid these internal and external pressures. Huang Yiping, The Japan Times, December 23
Chinese Migrants and the Philippines: The Need to Plug Legal Loopholes. The Philippines' outdated immigration laws, notably the Philippine Immigration Act of 1940, have failed to keep pace with the influx of new Chinese migrants, known as xin yimin, leading to systemic corruption and exploitation. Amendments like Republic Act No. 7919, intended to regularize undocumented aliens, have been misused through fraudulent claims, allowing unqualified immigrants to gain residency. Additionally, provisions for investment and retirement visas have been exploited via bogus investments, facilitated by networks of corrupt Bureau of Immigration (BI) agents and travel intermediaries. Scandals such as the 2020 "pastillas scam," where bribes were wrapped in paper resembling the local candy, highlight the depth of corruption within the BI. These practices not only undermine the integrity of immigration processes but also tarnish the reputation of legitimate Chinese-Filipino residents. There is an urgent need for comprehensive immigration reform to address these legal loopholes and curb corruption. Teresita Ang See, Fulcrum, December 24