Asia Daily: December 2, 2024
Philippines' Marcos says presence of Russian submarine ‘very worrisome.’ President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. expressed concern over a Russian Kilo-class attack submarine spotted within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea, 80 nautical miles off Occidental Mindoro. A navy spokesperson confirmed the submarine identified itself as UFA 490, citing adverse weather as its reason for being in the area before proceeding to Vladivostok, Russia. Philippine naval forces escorted the submarine to ensure maritime compliance. Marcos called the incident troubling, emphasizing the need to protect the nation's maritime zones. Mikhail Flores, Reuters, December 2
Taiwan’s president visits East-West think tank as China criticizes his 2-day visit to Hawaii. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te visited the U.S. State Department-funded East-West Center in Hawaii, meeting its president and addressing an audience, though reporters were excluded during his speech. China condemned the visit, lodging a complaint with the U.S. and denouncing a new $385 million arms sale to Taiwan, which includes F-16 parts and tactical systems. Lai’s stop in Hawaii is part of a Pacific tour that includes visits to the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau. Audrey McAvoy, AP News, December 2
Biden takes a last aim at China’s hi-tech ambitions with new chip restrictions. The U.S. Commerce Department has imposed stringent regulations to curb China’s semiconductor development, targeting advanced technologies critical to AI and military applications. The measures restrict exports of 24 chipmaking tools and three software categories, focusing on high-bandwidth memory vital for AI and advanced computing. Beijing has vowed to counter these restrictions, while U.S. officials maintain the controls are necessary for national security. Igor Patrick, Amber Wong and Kawala Xie, South China Morning Post, December 2
Kyrgyzstan criticizes Russia's approach to migration. Kyrgyzstan has criticized Russia’s recent policies on migrant laborers, arguing they unfairly target Central Asian workers, particularly those from Kyrgyzstan. President Sadyr Japarov called for Russia to establish clearer and more transparent migration rules, emphasizing that labor migration plays a vital role in both countries' economies. Russian authorities have tightened regulations, requiring migrants to meet stricter legal and administrative standards, which has caused frustration among Kyrgyz workers. Anton Chipegin, The Times of Central Asia, December 2
‘PH maintains peaceful solution to WPS disputes.’ The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) reaffirmed the country’s commitment to peaceful resolution of disputes in the West Philippine Sea (WPS), deploying Coast Guard vessels to avoid "militarizing" the area. Spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela emphasized that the use of Coast Guard ships aims to de-escalate tensions with China and other claimant states. Tarriela also noted recent reports of Chinese research ships in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, raising concerns about potential data collection. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, December 2
Zelenskyy says N.K. troops deployed to western Russia killed, injured. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that North Korean soldiers fighting in western Russia have suffered casualties, amid criticism that they are being used as "cannon fodder" for Moscow. Zelenskyy said the deployment could provide these troops with advanced combat experience, including drone warfare, potentially impacting regional security in Asia. Zelenskyy emphasized Ukraine’s need to join NATO and expressed concerns over Russia’s recent advances in eastern Ukraine. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, December 2
Philippine groups seek impeachment of Vice President Duterte. Civil society and religious leaders formally filed an impeachment complaint against Vice President Sara Duterte in Congress on Monday, accusing her of graft, corruption, incompetence, and amassing ill-gotten wealth. The complainants cited 24 violations, including betrayal of public trust and high crimes. The impeachment bid follows Duterte's refusal to attend budget hearings and allegations of misuse of funds during her time as vice president and education minister. Critics described the effort as a moral crusade to restore public trust in governance. Mikhail Flores and Neil Jerome Morales, Reuters, December 2
Myanmar junta airstrike on Kyaukme kills about 10 civilians, TNLA says. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) reported that a Myanmar junta airstrike on Kyaukme Township in northern Shan State killed approximately 10 civilians and injured 13 others on Sunday. The attack targeted the TNLA’s Ta’ang Education Centre, which houses orphans, according to the group. The TNLA, an ethnic armed group, condemned the strike, calling it an act of "war crime" against civilians. Junta officials have not commented on the incident. The Irrawaddy, December 2
China condemns Lithuania’s expulsion of its diplomats. China has criticized Lithuania for expelling three Chinese diplomats, calling the action "wanton and provocative" and without justification. The expulsions come as tensions rise over allegations that a Chinese ship severed two undersea data cables, including one linking Lithuania and Sweden. Lithuania declared the diplomats persona non grata, citing the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations but did not specify their actions. Beijing accused Lithuania of undermining relations and reserved the right to respond. This follows China's 2021 downgrading of ties with Lithuania over its support for Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of its territory. Simina Mistreanu, AP News, December 2
Indonesia yet to agree joint development areas with Beijing in South China Sea, minister says. Indonesia's Foreign Minister Sugiono clarified on Monday that no joint development areas with China in the South China Sea have been finalized. Last month, a joint statement with Beijing pledged to explore projects in overlapping waters, though Sugiono reiterated Indonesia’s rejection of China’s nine-dash line claims and assured lawmakers that sovereignty remains paramount. Analysts fear the deal could strain ties with Southeast Asian neighbors resisting China’s claims, while Sugiono described the agreement as a tension-reducing effort. Stanley Widianto, Reuters, December 2
Jailed corrupt former commerce minister released on parole. Boonsong Teriyapirom, a former Thai commerce minister convicted in a corruption case tied to a government rice-pledging scheme, was released on parole after serving over five years of a 48-year sentence. The Department of Corrections stated that Boonsong met the criteria for parole due to his good behavior and participation in rehabilitation programs while incarcerated. His conviction stemmed from authorizing illegal government-to-government rice export deals that caused significant financial losses. Bangkok Post, December 2
Hun Sen meets Chinese President Xi to strengthen ‘ironclad friendship.’ Cambodian King Norodom Sihamoni praised Prime Minister Hun Sen’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping as a reaffirmation of the two nations’ close ties. During their meeting in Beijing, Xi underscored China's readiness to deepen cooperation with Cambodia in various sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, and trade. Hun Sen reaffirmed Cambodia’s adherence to the "One China" policy and lauded China's support for Cambodia’s development. Both leaders agreed to maintain close coordination on regional and global issues. The Phnom Penh Post, December 2
Global Human Rights Body Condemns Inaction of Turkmenistan’s Ombudsman The Global Alliance of National Human Rights Institutions' Sub-Committee on Accreditation has criticized Turkmenistan's Ombudsman Office for failing to protect human rights amid credible reports of state violations. Concerns include the Ombudsman's unresponsiveness to human rights organizations, lack of transparency in civil society involvement, limited applicant access, and an outdated website. Turkmenistan continues to face scrutiny for systematic human rights violations. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, December 2
Nat'l Assembly takes step toward vote on impeachment of head of state auditor this week. South Korea’s Democratic Party (DP) has introduced an impeachment motion against Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) Chair Choe Jae-hae, marking the first such move in the National Assembly's history. The DP accuses Choe of mishandling the audit of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s 2022 office relocation and ignoring a parliamentary request for audit-related documents. Impeachment motions against three top prosecutors, including Lee Chang-soo, have also been filed for allegedly failing to indict first lady Kim Keon Hee. Oh Seok-min, Yonhap News Agency, December 2
New Nippon Ishin leader seeks opposition unity in elections. Hirofumi Yoshimura, elected leader of Nippon Ishin on December 1, aims to unify opposition parties for the upcoming Upper House election. Yoshimura, Osaka's governor and co-representative of the party since 2022, plans to move away from Nippon Ishin’s earlier goal of becoming the leading opposition force, instead advocating cooperation to challenge the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito. Kei Kobayashi and Yuichi Nobira, The Asahi Shimbun, December 2
‘Chinese support for Russia’ hitting ties, German Foreign Minister Baerbock tells Wang Yi. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock criticized China’s growing support for Russia’s war in Ukraine during talks with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing, saying it undermined European security. Baerbock highlighted reports of Chinese drones and North Korean troops aiding Russia and warned these actions were straining China’s ties with Germany and the EU. Baerbock also addressed trade tensions, calling for fair competition amid EU tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. Dewey Sim, South China Morning Post, December 2
Vietnam’s National Assembly and Singapore’s Parliament seek further practical cooperation. National Assembly Chairman Vuong Dinh Hue and Speaker of Singapore’s Parliament Seah Kian Peng agreed to strengthen bilateral ties during a meeting in Hanoi. The leaders emphasized boosting economic, trade, and investment collaboration, particularly in green energy, digital transformation, and innovation. Seah expressed Singapore’s interest in expanding cooperation under the framework of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Vietnam News, December 2
South Korea Scrambles to Adjust to a Trump Economy. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is working to navigate anticipated changes in U.S. economic policies under the second Trump administration. The Joongang Ilbo editorial from November 7 describes the situation as "all-hands-on-deck." The Trump administration's plans to dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the CHIPS Act could significantly impact South Korean investments in the U.S., particularly in the electric vehicle and semiconductor sectors. South Korean companies have announced substantial investments in these areas, driven by incentives from these U.S. policies. The potential policy reversals introduce uncertainty, prompting South Korea to seek clarity and advocate for the protection of its economic interests. Additionally, the Trump administration's approach to trade, including the possibility of imposing tariffs, poses further challenges to South Korea's export-driven economy. President Yoon's proactive engagement with U.S. counterparts aims to mitigate adverse effects and strengthen bilateral economic ties. William Brown, Korea Economic Institute of America, December 2
Kazakhstan Survives Among the Big Powers. Kazakhstan has maintained its sovereignty since 1991 through a strategy of diversifying trade partnerships and balancing relationships with major powers like Russia and China. While rooted in historical ties to Russia and economic engagement with China under the Belt and Road Initiative, Kazakhstan has resisted domination by either, as seen in its rejection of BRICS+ expansion and its balanced trade strategy. Trade with China has evolved from a focus on natural resources to include a variety of goods, creating industrial growth and economic diversification. These efforts, alongside connectivity projects like transnational rail freight, show Kazakhstan's resilience and commitment to autonomy. Linda Tjia and Guanie Lim, Council on Foreign Relations, December 2
Why Isn’t Europe Diversifying from China? Over the past seven years, while the U.S. and Japan have actively reduced their trade and investment reliance on China, the European Union has deepened its economic ties with Beijing. This divergence stems from Europe's openness to Chinese clean technology imports amid its accelerated green transition, the influx of cost-effective Chinese chemical products following elevated energy prices due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and a slower shift away from Chinese low-tech goods compared to the U.S. and Japan. Additionally, the EU's lack of robust regulatory measures has not sufficiently motivated European companies to alter their manufacturing and sourcing strategies. Consequently, China's share of EU imports rose from 22% in 2017 to 25% in 2023, an increased dependency. Agatha Kratz, Camille Boullenois, and Jeremy Smith, Rhodium Group, December 2
Vietnam must manage its Trump-era expectations. Vietnam faces challenges as it adjusts to potential changes in US policies under a renewed Trump administration, despite widespread domestic support for President-elect Donald Trump. The administration's likely focus on reducing the US trade deficit, including with Vietnam, could result in tariffs of 10–20 percent on imports, adversely affecting key Vietnamese exports such as textiles and seafood. While the US–Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, established in 2023, shows their growing ties, Trump's transactional foreign policy raises doubts about the extent of US support in regional disputes, including the South China Sea. Additionally, Vietnam's reliance on multilateral agreements may be tested as Trump could withdraw the US from initiatives like the Paris Agreement or the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. With escalating US-China rivalry, Vietnam must deal pressures to align with US policies while striving to maintain its neutral stance. Lena Le, East Asia Forum, December 2
Prabowo steers Indonesia’s maritime doctrine to new waters. Prabowo Subianto’s presidency marks a potential change in Indonesia’s maritime strategy as Chinese incursions in the North Natuna Sea test its resolve. While former President Jokowi focused on economic ties and symbolic assertions of sovereignty, Prabowo appears poised to strengthen naval capabilities and defense spending, including a 20% increase to $25 billion in 2024. Despite pursuing economic agreements with China, Prabowo has bolstered bilateral defense partnerships with nations like Japan and Australia, signaling a more assertive approach to counter maritime threats. Balancing territorial integrity and economic growth will be Prabowo's key challenge. Jake Thrupp, East Asia Forum, December 3
What Does India’s Hypersonic Missile Test Mean? India's successful test of a long-range hypersonic missile marks an advancement in its defense capabilities, positioning it among a select group of nations with such technology. The missile, developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), can carry various payloads over distances exceeding 1,500 kilometers at speeds greater than Mach 5. This development reflects India's commitment to modernizing its military assets amid regional security challenges and contributes to the evolving global hypersonic arms race. Diya Ashtakala, Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 2
Traveling Through Myanmar’s War-Ravaged Arakan. The Arakan Army (AA) has gained control over a significant amount of territory in Myanmar's Rakhine State and southern Chin State, evolving from guerrilla tactics to conventional warfare against the military junta. A 24-day journey through these regions revealed extensive war-induced devastation and economic neglect. Towns like Buthidaung and Pauktaw are nearly deserted, with infrastructure in ruins. The AA's administration is evident, but the local population endures hardships due to ongoing conflict and limited resources. Rajeev Bhattacharyya, The Diplomat, December 1
Thailand’s Army White Paper: Heat is on to Supply the RTA. The Royal Thai Army's (RTA) inaugural White Paper, released in July 2024, outlines a comprehensive modernization plan aimed at addressing both domestic instability and external threats through the development of 19 key capabilities. The document emphasizes the acquisition of advanced military hardware, including modern attack and patrol helicopters, tanks, armored vehicles, transport aircraft, drones, territorial monitoring systems, communication and intelligence equipment, and advanced radar systems. This ambitious procurement strategy has increased competition among international defense suppliers, notably China and the United States, both of which have historically provided military equipment to Thailand. The RTA's diversified procurement approach reflects its intent to strengthen ties with multiple partners while improving its defense capabilities. Paul Wesley Chambers, FULCRUM, December 2