Asia Daily: December 19, 2023
News
Troops on South Korean side re-arm at border village amid tensions with North. The United Nations Command (UNC) has authorized international troops at the Panmunjom truce village on the South Korea-North Korea border to carry guns. This decision, prompted by North Korean troops resuming armed patrols, aims to protect both military and civilian personnel in the area. The move follows increased tensions and the unraveling of a 2018 inter-Korean military pact meant to reduce border armament. Hyunsu Yim and Josh Smith, Reuters, December 19
Japanese, Cambodian leaders vow to bolster security cooperation. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Cambodian counterpart Hun Manet agreed to enhance security cooperation. This commitment was made during a meeting in Tokyo, focusing on the importance of regional stability amid China's military presence in Southeast Asia. They also discussed various bilateral relations, including a land mine clearance project for Ukraine. Kyodo News, December 18
Kazakhstan: China explores developing infrastructure at Caspian ports. China is considering investing in container facilities at Kazakhstan's Caspian Sea ports, reflecting its increasing involvement in Central Asia's infrastructure and transportation. This move aligns with China's wider economic interests in the region, including increased rail traffic in Kyrgyzstan and a proposed railway line connecting China, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Eurasianet, December 18
Taiwan detects 2 Chinese balloons crossing median line. Taiwan's military reported the sighting of two Chinese balloons crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, a development seen as part of China's ongoing military pressure. Initially thought to be weather balloons, they were detected near Keelung city. This event, amidst rising cross-strait tensions, follows another recent balloon sighting and precedes Taiwan's upcoming presidential elections. Channel News Asia, December 18
Marcos condemns North Korea's ballistic missile launch. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. condemned North Korea's recent intercontinental ballistic missile launch as "dangerous and provocative," destabilizing the region and world. He expressed this view during a meeting with ASEAN leaders in Tokyo, highlighting the shared concerns of ASEAN nations and Japan over North Korea's actions. This missile launch, which reportedly fell into the sea west of Hokkaido, has escalated tensions in the region. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, December 18
China and Russia can inject ‘stability and positive energy’ into the world, says Premier Li Qiang. Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin have pledged to strengthen economic and energy cooperation, aiming to bring stability and positive global influence. They discussed trading primarily in roubles or yuan and enhancing bilateral trade and investment, reinforcing their partnership in response to global geopolitical challenges. Kawala Xie, South China Morning Post, December 19
US sees no impact on Vietnam ties from Hanoi-Beijing defence pledges. The U.S. remains committed to its relationship with Vietnam, undeterred by Vietnam's recent strengthening of defense and security ties with China. U.S. officials emphasize the bilateral cooperation across various sectors, independent of third-country relations. This stance comes after Vietnam upgraded relations with Beijing, marking a strategic move in regional diplomacy. Francesco Guarascio, Reuters, December 18
Long Form
The Islamic State’s High Stakes War in the Philippines. Pro-Islamic State groups in the Philippines are intensifying their attacks, aiming to disrupt the Bangsamoro peace process during a critical period. Despite months of counterterrorism operations that have killed top leaders and weakened their ranks, these groups remain active. A recent example is the December 2 bombing of a Catholic Mass in Marawi City, which resulted in four deaths and numerous injuries. This attack was claimed by the Islamic State's East Asia province. Following this incident, local pro-Islamic State groups have taken responsibility for several other attacks across the Bangsamoro autonomous region. This ongoing violence underscores the persistent threat posed by these groups and the challenges faced in achieving lasting peace in the region. By Haroro J. Ingram, The Diplomat, December 19
Shifting Visions of the South Korea-US Alliance. The evolution of the South Korea-US alliance is evident in the changes observed in the official "Defense Vision" documents from 2019 to 2023. These documents, released following the Security Consultative Meetings (SCM), highlight the alliance's shared history dating back to the Korean War and its foundation on shared values and mutual trust. The comparison of the 2019 and 2023 defense visions reveals how the alliance's conceptions have transformed over the years, reflecting the dynamic nature of the relationship between South Korea and the United States. This evolution underscores the alliance's adaptability and responsiveness to changing geopolitical landscapes in East Asia. By Clint Work and Joo Young Kim, The Diplomat, December 18
Thailand's 'Landbridge' Will Bring East and West Closer Together. Thailand's Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin highlights the Landbridge mega infrastructure project, aimed at enhancing connectivity and boosting long-term growth in the region. The project involves building deep-sea ports at Ranong and Chumphon, connected by a freeway and railway lines, and includes an oil and gas pipeline network. The Landbridge is expected to shorten travel time between the Indian and Pacific Oceans by an average of four days and reduce transportation costs by 15%. This initiative, seen as a modern reworking of the Isthmus of Kra canal proposal, aligns well with the growth prospects of the economies of the Indian subcontinent and Africa. The project, to be executed through public-private partnerships, will likely bring significant economic benefits to Thailand, including increased export opportunities and job creation. It also aims to strengthen regional supply chains and enhance ASEAN's potential as a logistics hub. By Srettha Thavisin, Nikkei Asia, December 17
Who Gets to Tell China’s Story? In China, a movement of underground historians is challenging the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) monopoly on historical narratives. Utilizing digital technologies, these citizen historians are preserving and disseminating alternative accounts of China's past, countering the CCP's official version. Their efforts are particularly crucial as the CCP, under Xi Jinping, intensifies its control over historical narratives. This underground movement underscores the ongoing battle for historical truth in China and the significant role of individuals in upholding historical accuracy against authoritarian influences. By Ian Johnson, Foreign Affairs, December 19
Beginning the Repairs on Timor-Leste’s Economy. Timor-Leste's economy is undergoing significant changes, with Xanana Gusmao's return as Prime Minister and the tackling of a looming fiscal crisis. Gusmao, a dominant political figure since the independence struggle, has focused on reining in government spending, which has exceeded sustainable withdrawals from the country's Petroleum Fund since 2007. The fund, initially intended for interest-based withdrawals, has been heavily drawn upon, driving much of the country's economy. The ambitious Greater Sunrise liquid natural gas field development, a key part of Gusmao's economic plan, has not materialized, leading to a 'fiscal cliff.' In response, the 2024 budget has been cut by 18%, and the government is seeking foreign investment, notably through a strategic partnership with China under the Belt and Road Initiative. This partnership, however, raises questions about China's growing influence in Timor-Leste and the country's future economic and political stability. By Damien Kingsbury, East Asia Forum, December 19