Asia Daily: December 18, 2024
South Korea to set roadmap in case Trump reopens North Korea nuclear talks. South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul announced plans to craft a roadmap for potential nuclear talks between the U.S. and North Korea under President-elect Donald Trump. Cho acknowledged that President Yoon Suk Yeol’s recent martial law attempt had disrupted ties with Trump’s team. Despite Pyongyang’s refusal to engage, Seoul remains open to dialogue. The roadmap reflects concerns over uncertainty in U.S.-South Korea relations, with Yoon currently suspended from duties amid impeachment proceedings. Jihoon Lee and Hyonhee Shin, Reuters, December 18
China has expanded its nuclear force and strengthened ties to Russia, the Pentagon says. China is advancing its nuclear capabilities, increasing military activity near Taiwan, and deepening ties with Russia, according to a Pentagon report. The assessment notes over 600 operational Chinese nuclear warheads, with projections exceeding 1,000 by 2030. Corruption within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), including the removal of 15 senior officials, has hindered parts of its modernization efforts. The report highlights Beijing’s naval presence and military drills near Taiwan, which it claims as its own territory. Lolita C. Baldor, AP News, December 18
Taiwan needs nuclear energy: former US official. Former US energy secretary Steven Chu highlighted the critical role of nuclear power in Taiwan’s energy security during a forum in Taipei. He warned that Taiwan’s limited LNG storage, sufficient for just 10 days, creates vulnerability in the event of supply disruptions. Chu emphasized nuclear power’s safety and reliability compared to other energy sources and noted its importance as a stable backup to renewable energy, which is hindered by intermittency. Jake Chung, Taipei Times, December 19
U.S. TikTok ban: Supreme Court agrees to review law banning Chinese-owned video app. The U.S. Supreme Court will review a law mandating a nationwide TikTok ban unless the app’s ownership transfers to a non-Chinese entity by January 19. Scheduled for January 10, the arguments will assess whether the law violates free speech protections under the U.S. Constitution. TikTok, supported by civil rights groups, claims the law infringes First Amendment rights. Meanwhile, U.S. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has filed a brief supporting the ban, citing national security concerns over potential Chinese influence. Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, December 18
Ignoring Chinese pressure, KIA seizes Myanmar junta-allied militia outpost in Kachin. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has captured an outpost in La He Si Bum Village, Khaunglanhpu Township, Kachin State, from a junta-aligned militia. The outpost, housing at least 70 junta troops and militia members, is strategically located between Khaunglanhpu and Sawlaw near the Chinese border. China has urged the KIA to cease hostilities and engage in political dialogue with Myanmar's regime, aiming to protect Chinese investments and maintain regional stability. Hein Htoo Zan, The Irrawaddy, December 18
Senate refuses to back down on referendum. The Thai Senate voted 153-24 with 13 abstentions to uphold the double majority rule for a constitutional referendum, requiring over 50% voter turnout and a majority approval among voters. This contrasts with the House's push for a single majority rule. Senators defended the stricter threshold as essential for significant decisions, while critics warned it could obstruct progress on charter amendments. Concerns over voter boycotts were raised. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, December 18
Former, incumbent military intelligence officers planned martial law operations over burgers: police. Retired Army Maj. Gen. Noh Sang-won and Maj. Gen. Moon Sang-ho, along with two colonels, discussed martial law plans at a Lotteria restaurant in Ansan, two days before their execution, according to police. Noh was formally arrested for alleged involvement in the botched martial law imposition by President Yoon Suk Yeol, and Moon was detained. Noh is accused of drafting the decree and coordinating with then Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun. A colonel admitted to planning to seize election servers as part of Yoon's election-rigging claims. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, December 18
Bank of Korea says 'low-inflation' era not coming in the next year or two. The Bank of Korea (BOK) will maintain its 2% inflation target, citing that low inflation below 1% is unlikely within the next two years. Governor Rhee Chang-yong highlighted persistent price pressures due to economic growth in the upper-1% range, a strong dollar, and climate change. November’s consumer inflation eased to 1.5%, enabling the BOK to lower interest rates to 3.00%. Inflation is expected to stabilize near the target in 2025, with pressures from public utility costs and currency weakness balanced by lower oil prices. Jihoon Lee, Reuters, December 18
Defence cooperation – key pillar in Vietnam-Laos ties: PM. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized that defence collaboration is a crucial component of the special relationship between Vietnam and Laos. During a meeting with Lao Defence Minister Sen. Lieut. Gen. Khamliang Outhakaysone, who was visiting Vietnam for the 80th anniversary of the Vietnam People’s Army, PM Chinh reaffirmed Vietnam's readiness to support Laos amid its economic challenges, advocating for enhanced coordination in defence-security matters, border protection, and combating cross-border crimes. Vietnam News, December 18
China and India agree to work on solution to their border dispute in the Himalayas. China and India committed to finding a resolution to their prolonged border dispute in the Himalayas following a military standoff that began with a deadly 2020 clash in Ladakh. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval agreed to implement a roadmap for "fair and reasonable" solutions, addressing simpler issues first. The dialogue builds on an October agreement on border patrols and a subsequent meeting between Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi. Both nations also pledged to resume Indian pilgrimages to Tibet. Ken Moritsugu, AP News, December 18
Afghan migration committee urges Tajikistan to halt refugee deportations. Mosawer Bahadori, head of Afghanistan’s Migration Committee in Tajikistan, called on authorities to stop deporting Afghan refugees and honor international conventions protecting them. He proposed fines or international relocation instead of deportation and highlighted the risks refugees face if returned to Afghanistan. The committee pledged to work with Tajik authorities to protect refugee rights and ensure compliance with local laws. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, December 18
Corruption may have disrupted Chinese military modernization goals, Pentagon report says. The Pentagon's annual report highlighted that widespread corruption in China's military, including the removal of at least 15 senior officials, may have disrupted its 2027 modernization goals. These goals aim to enhance military theories, personnel, and weapons systems to align with President Xi Jinping's order to prepare for a potential Taiwan invasion by 2027. The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, overseeing China's missile arsenal, was particularly impacted by corruption scandals. Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart, Reuters, December 18
Acting President Han to hold extraordinary Cabinet meeting on Thursday. Acting President Han Duck-soo will convene a Cabinet meeting to address six contentious bills passed by the Democratic Party, including the Grain Management Act, which mandates government purchase of surplus rice. The meeting will also review the National Assembly Act and the Testimony Appraisal Act, aimed at revising budget submission deadlines and mandating company compliance with data requests during parliamentary testimony. The ruling People Power Party opposes these bills, citing financial burdens and trade data risks. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, December 18
Syria-Xinjiang link: China warns leaders in Damascus not to threaten security elsewhere. China's Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, cautioned Syria's new leadership against supporting terrorism after a militant group based in Syria encouraged attacks in China's Xinjiang region. Addressing a UN briefing, Geng stressed the importance of stabilizing Syria's security while respecting its sovereignty. His remarks followed the release of a propaganda video by the Turkestan Islamic Party urging jihad in Xinjiang. TIP, tied to the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, remains a concern for Beijing due to its involvement in Syria's conflict. Zhao Ziwen, South China Morning Post, December 18
BOJ meets for final rate review this year as Trump risk clouds outlook. Bank of Japan policymakers are assessing whether conditions are ripe for another rate hike at their final 2024 meeting. While the BOJ has signaled readiness to raise rates if wage-driven inflation sustains, sources suggest it may keep rates steady at 0.25% on Thursday, given global economic uncertainties and U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's potential policies. Governor Kazuo Ueda is set to hold a news conference to discuss the decision. The BOJ's findings on its decades-long fight against deflation are also expected. Leika Kihara, Reuters, December 18
Kazakhstan offers neutral ground for peace talks, says Deputy Minister Vassilenko. Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Roman Vassilenko reiterated Kazakhstan's readiness to host peace negotiations, citing its neutral stance and balanced diplomatic relations with Russia and Western nations. Speaking at the World Policy Conference in Abu Dhabi, Vassilenko expressed optimism for resolving conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. He also highlighted Kazakhstan's proposal to host a potential peace treaty signing between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, December 17
Legal noose tightens on Myanmar junta. Myanmar’s military junta faces intensified international scrutiny as ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan filed for an arrest warrant on November 27, 2024, against Senior General Min Aung Hlaing for crimes against humanity, specifically the deportation and persecution of the Rohingya. These crimes, committed partly on Bangladeshi territory in 2017, allow the ICC to assert jurisdiction despite Myanmar not being a Rome Statute signatory. The Pre-Trial Chamber must now decide if sufficient evidence exists to issue the warrant, obligating ICC state parties to arrest Min Aung Hlaing. However, enforcement challenges persist due to immunity claims and geopolitical inconsistencies, exemplified by cases involving Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu. While sanctions have already restricted Min Aung Hlaing’s travel, limited Rome Statute ratifications in Southeast Asia could dilute the warrant’s immediate impact. This development, alongside the Rohingya genocide case at the International Court of Justice, shows the ongoing struggle for justice through international courts. Juliette McIntyre and Adam Simpson, East Asia Forum, December 19
Gwadar port highlights precarity in Pakistan’s geopolitical balancing act.
Pakistan’s economic, political, and security challenges have deepened amid allegations of a secret agreement to grant China a military base at Gwadar port, which both nations deny. These claims spotlight Islamabad’s precarious position between U.S. and Chinese interests, as escalating Baloch insurgent attacks on Chinese projects underline security risks tied to the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). While Chinese support could address Pakistan’s economic crisis and bolster military resources, it risks further alienating the U.S., already strained over deteriorating ties since the Afghanistan withdrawal. Islamabad’s reliance on IMF loans and negotiations with Beijing for debt relief demonstrates its reduced strategic significance to Washington. However, granting a Chinese military base could heighten regional instability, exacerbate internal security threats, and challenge Pakistan’s strategic autonomy as U.S.–China rivalry intensifies. Muneeb Yousuf, East Asia Forum, December 18
Don’t Speak Chinese: Stigma and Fear in Cambodia’s Chinese Community.
The longstanding Chinese community in Cambodia, integral to the nation's society for centuries, is experiencing increased stigma due to associations with organized crime and online scamming operations. This negative perception has led to fear among Chinese migrants, with some advised to avoid speaking Chinese publicly to prevent discrimination. The situation shows the economic influence and social integration dynamics for Chinese expatriates in Cambodia. Daniel Zak, The Diplomat, December 18
Locating Theravāda Buddhism in Maritime Southeast Asia. Theravāda Buddhism, while predominant in mainland Southeast Asia, exists as a minority faith in maritime regions such as Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia. Here, it is primarily practiced by diasporic communities, including ethnic Chinese, Burmese, Sri Lankan, and Thai migrants. These groups have adapted their religious practices to local contexts, establishing institutions and rituals that preserve their cultural identity and appeal to younger generations. Jack Meng-Tat Chia, FULCRUM, December 19
Japan-ROK-US Trilateral Relations: Flying into Turbulence. The trilateral relationship between Japan, South Korea, and the United States, formalized in August 2023, is entering a challenging phase due to domestic political turbulence in Japan and South Korea and the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency. South Korea’s political crisis following President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment and the instability of Japan’s government under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba threaten the continuity of their foreign policies. Trump’s previous demands for greater burden-sharing by U.S. allies add further uncertainty. These challenges may undermine the trilateral partnership's efforts to address regional security and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Joanne Lin and William Choong, FULCRUM, December 18