Asia Daily: December 17, 2024
Legal defense team for impeached Yoon denies insurrection charges. President Yoon Suk Yeol’s legal defense team rejected accusations of insurrection over his December 3 martial law declaration, emphasizing the charges do not meet legal criteria. Lawyer Seok Dong-hyeon stated Yoon would present his position confidently in the Constitutional Court impeachment trial, which will determine whether he is reinstated or removed from office. Yoon faces concurrent investigations by the prosecution, police, and other agencies. The defense team plans to address the impeachment trial and investigations separately, while Yoon will not appear for questioning by the Corruption Investigation Office on Wednesday. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, December 17
UN envoy demands international action to arrest Myanmar junta boss. UN special rapporteur Tom Andrews urged international governments to support the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrant request for Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing over crimes against humanity against the Rohingya in 2017. Andrews called the ICC prosecutor's move an important step but stressed the need for more robust accountability for ongoing atrocities since the 2021 coup. He warned that the junta cannot evade justice and urged swift international action. The Irrawaddy, December 17
China, Trump talk up prospects for U.S.-China collaboration. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed hope that the incoming Trump administration would work with Beijing in a “mutually beneficial manner” to overcome obstacles in bilateral ties. Trump has pledged to reimpose tariffs and take tougher trade measures against China, while Beijing prepares to address key disputes such as trade, investment, and technology. Wang warned of firm responses to U.S. interference in issues like Taiwan. Joe Cash, Liz Lee and Ethan Wang, Reuters, December 17
Trust, approval ratings of top government officials decline. The approval ratings of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte fell significantly, with Marcos’ approval dropping to 33 percent from 43 percent and Duterte’s to 37 percent from 40 percent, according to Publicus Asia’s Pahayag 2024 End-of-Year Survey. Public dissatisfaction stems from issues like corruption allegations and inflation, as well as controversies surrounding Duterte’s remarks and audit findings. Trust ratings mirrored this trend, while TESDA and the AFP maintained the highest agency approval scores. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, December 17
Battle erupts over South Korean court that will determine the fate of impeached Yoon. Acting leader Han Duck-soo vowed to stabilize South Korea following parliament’s impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol over his December 3 martial law declaration. Rival parties are clashing over filling three vacancies on the Constitutional Court, which needs six votes to unseat Yoon but currently has only six justices. The opposition-led Democratic Party insists on restoring the court to full capacity, while Yoon’s ruling party argues that an acting president cannot make appointments. Experts note Han may legally appoint justices as the court prepares for its high-stakes trial. Kim Tong-hyung and Hyung-jin Kim, AP News, December 17
Trump taps ex-investment banker Glass as U.S. ambassador to Japan. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has appointed George Glass, a businessman and former investment banker, as ambassador to Japan.Glass previously served as ambassador to Portugal from 2017 to 2021 during Trump’s first term. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi welcomed the appointment, expressing hope for stronger bilateral ties. Current U.S. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel pledged support for a smooth transition while highlighting the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance for regional stability. Kyodo News, December 17
Taipei-Shanghai forum goes ahead, with calls for ‘olive branches’ and exchanges. The Taipei-Shanghai Twin-City Forum proceeded on Tuesday despite Taiwan denying entry to 11 mainland Chinese officials and nine journalists. At the event, Shanghai Vice-Mayor Hua Yuan pledged to promote group tours to Taiwan while emphasizing close cross-strait cooperation. Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an called for dialogue and peace amid rising military tensions, stressing the need for understanding over conflict. Memorandums were signed on smart medical care and zoo animal exchanges. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, December 17
Belarusian defence minister in Hanoi for official visit. Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Gennadievich Khrenin met with Vietnamese Defence Minister Phan Van Giang in Hanoi to strengthen bilateral military cooperation. Both sides agreed to advance collaboration in areas like high-level delegation exchanges, military training, and participation in multilateral events. Giang requested Belarus provide more scholarships for Vietnamese military personnel, while Khrenin invited Giang to visit Belarus for the 2025 Milex Arms Exhibition. Vietnam News, December 17
Philippines sends provisions to military personnel in South China Sea. The Philippines delivered supplies earlier this month to military personnel stationed on features in the South China Sea, including the Sierra Madre warship at Second Thomas Shoal, which is claimed by Beijing. China’s coast guard stated the resupply mission occurred on December 12 “with China’s permission.” Tensions remain high as China continues to reject a 2016 Hague ruling that invalidated its sweeping claims over the strategic waterway. Liz Lee, Ethan Wang, and Mikhail Flores, Reuters, December 17
Turkmenistan and Afghanistan to accelerate TAPI gas pipeline project. Turkmenistan and Afghanistan agreed to expedite construction of the Afghan section of the $10 billion Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline during a visit by Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov to Afghanistan. The 1,814-kilometer pipeline, which will deliver 33 billion cubic meters of gas annually, is critical for diversifying Turkmenistan’s exports and will generate $450 million in transit fees for Afghanistan. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, December 17
Japan enacts 13.9 tril. yen extra budget for economic package. Japan's parliament approved a 13.9 trillion yen ($90 billion) supplementary budget to fund an economic package, including inflation relief measures and disaster reconstruction. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition, which lost its lower house majority in October, secured support from opposition parties after accepting demands like raising the tax-free annual income threshold. The package, totaling 39 trillion yen, includes subsidies to curb energy costs and cash handouts for low-income households. Kyodo News, December 17
Cambodia secures ADB loans, grants for development projects worth $403M. Cambodia signed concessional loan and grant agreements with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) totaling $403 million to fund five key programs, including water resource management, education, trade competitiveness, and gender-based violence prevention. Projects include modernizing irrigation systems, improving rural sanitation, and enhancing secondary education infrastructure. The Phnom Penh Post, December 17
Xi Jinping visits Macau to mark 25 years of Chinese rule. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Macau for a three-day visit to commemorate the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese rule. Xi will attend the inauguration of new Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai, the first Macau leader born in mainland China, who has pledged to reduce the region’s dependence on its casino industry and promote economic diversification. Macau’s economy, heavily reliant on gambling revenues, faces pressure to develop tourism and non-gaming sectors as part of Beijing’s economic directives. Farah Master, Reuters, December 17
LDP scraps political fund ‘loophole,’ delays donations debate. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) dropped a proposal to keep certain political spending confidential, ensuring progress on political reform bills. The LDP’s concession followed opposition criticism of the clause as a loophole undermining transparency. The agreement clears the way for a third-party body to audit political funds while postponing a decision on banning corporate and organizational donations until March. The reforms also prohibit foreign individuals from purchasing fundraising tickets and establish a political fund database. Shinobu Konno, The Asahi Shimbun, December 17
S. Korea sanctions top N.K. military officers, missile developer involved in Russia's war against Ukraine. South Korea announced sanctions on three top North Korean military officers and a missile developer for their roles in supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. Among the designated individuals are Kim Yong-bok, Sin Kum-chol, Ri Pong-chun, and Ri Song-jin, who are accused of involvement in troop deployments and weapons development. Additionally, South Korea sanctioned seven Russians and 15 entities, mostly Russian, for illegal military cooperation with North Korea, violating U.N. Security Council resolutions. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, December 17
Laos, Vietnam take steps to complete agreed construction projects. Laos and Vietnam’s foreign ministries agreed to resolve issues and accelerate key projects, including the Nong Khang airport, Xekaman 3 hydropower plant, and a drug treatment center. Discussions also focused on securing funding for strategic projects, such as the Vientiane-Hanoi expressway and a Thakhaek-Vung Ang railway link. Vietnam operates 256 projects in Laos worth $5.5 billion, supporting Laos’ economic and social development. Vientiane Times, December 17
Proposal to change India’s voting system to allow simultaneous polls fails to pass lower Parliament. Legislation proposed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government to hold simultaneous elections for state assemblies and the national parliament failed in India’s lower house, falling short of the two-thirds majority. The vote saw 269 lawmakers in favor and 198 against. The government argued the system would boost economic growth and governance by reducing election expenses and campaign frequency. Critics warned it could undermine federalism and favor ruling parties. Sheikh Saaliq, AP News, December 17
Vietnam's Milei-style cuts of ministries stir investors' anticipation, worries. Vietnam plans to slash five ministries, four agencies, and state broadcasters in its most significant bureaucratic overhaul in decades to reduce red tape and accelerate reforms. The plan comes amid growing investor frustration over delays in project approvals and regulatory inefficiencies. While officials and investors anticipate short-term "paralysis" and administrative disruptions, there is optimism that the reforms will improve Vietnam's long-term attractiveness for foreign investment. Francesco Guarascio and Phuong Nguyen, Reuters, December 17
Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island. Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an urged for reduced cross-strait tensions during the Taipei-Shanghai Twin-City Forum, which Taiwan’s government does not sanction. Chiang called for peaceful relations as China escalated military activity, sending 10 aircraft and seven ships near Taiwan between Monday and Tuesday. While China maintains Taiwan is its territory, Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party-led government advocates maintaining de-facto independence amid strained ties and ongoing military provocations. AP News, December 17
Turkmenistan and U.S. representatives explore prospects for economic partnership. A Turkmen-American business forum in Ashgabat focused on strengthening economic cooperation, particularly in industry, agriculture, energy, and high-tech sectors. Led by Eric Stewart, Executive Director of the Turkmen-American Business Council, the U.S. delegation highlighted the interest of companies like John Deere, General Electric, and Boeing in Turkmenistan’s market. Both sides emphasized collaboration on infrastructure, sustainable solutions, and technology. Darmen Gill, The Times of Central Asia, December 17
Trade wars are neither good nor easy to win. The U.S.-China trade war initiated under Donald Trump in 2018 led to a reduction in China's share of U.S. imports but failed to diminish China’s importance in the global economy. While tariffs caused a sharp decline in direct U.S.-China trade, Chinese exports were diverted to other markets, increasing China’s global trade share. Despite attempts to diversify supply chains through nearshoring and "friendshoring," relocation from China has been limited. Moreover, U.S. trade deficits remain higher than in 2017, and further trade confrontations risk isolating the United States within the multilateral trading system. Sourabh Gupta, ICAS, December 17
US-South Korea Defense Industrial Cooperation—Drivers, Developments, and Tasks Ahead. Defense industrial cooperation between the United States and South Korea is rooted in their security alliance and has evolved to meet changing strategic priorities. For the U.S., such collaboration helps advance its global strategy and maintain competitiveness amid adversarial challenges. South Korea views defense cooperation both as a means to strengthen its alliance with the U.S. and as a way to bolster its defense industrial base. Recent developments include increased access to U.S. defense markets and reforms in South Korea’s industrial practices. The 2024 U.S. National Defense Industrial Strategy emphasizes modernizing defense ecosystems through stronger allied partnerships, which will shape South Korea’s future defense and acquisition policies. Bo Ram Kwon, Korea Economic Institute of America, December 17
China’s Stunning 2024 Export Growth. China's export volumes have surged in 2024, far outpacing growth in their dollar value due to falling prices, such as those for solar panels. Supported by policies directing state bank credit toward manufacturing, export volumes grew over 12%, compared to 3% for global trade. Meanwhile, import volumes in China have contracted significantly. The 10-percentage-point gap between export and import growth contributes about 2% to China's GDP. European exports, particularly Germany’s, are losing market share as China's export growth increasingly dominates global trade. Brad W. Setser and Michael Weilandt, Council on Foreign Relations, December 17
China Replaces Russia in Kazakh Uranium Mines. Russia's Rosatom is selling stakes in Kazakhstan’s uranium mines to Chinese firms, signaling Beijing’s growing influence in Central Asia as Moscow’s wanes. Uranium One Group, part of Rosatom, sold 49.99% of its shares in joint ventures to China’s State Nuclear Uranium Resources Development and is expected to sell additional stakes to China General Nuclear Power Corporation. Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium producer, retains its 49.99% stake in these ventures and has begun exploring new deposits with reserves of 180,000 tonnes. Kazakhstan, which produced 43% of global uranium in 2022, plans to build a nuclear plant near Lake Balkhash, attracting bids from Chinese, Russian, French, and South Korean companies. Eric Olander, China Global South, December 18
Drones, Desperation, and Displacement: Rohingya Flee Violence in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Amid escalating violence between the Arakan Army and Myanmar’s military, thousands of Rohingya and other minorities in Rakhine State are fleeing to Bangladesh. Trapped near the border, many undertake perilous nighttime journeys facilitated by brokers, risking injury or pushbacks by border authorities. Survivors share harrowing stories of starvation, drone attacks, and family separation, highlighting the devastating human cost. This displacement shows the worsening humanitarian crisis as Myanmar’s military clashes intensify, leaving vulnerable populations with little hope of safety or stability. Shafiur Rahman, The Diplomat, December 17
Yoon's Impeachment Widens East Asia Fault Lines. The impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, following his failed martial law attempt, threatens the trilateral cooperation established with Japan and the United States during his tenure. Yoon, celebrated abroad for fostering regional ties, had previously participated in landmark summits with U.S. President Joe Biden and Japan’s Fumio Kishida. His ousting now jeopardizes the stability of this partnership at a time of growing regional challenges. Gearoid Reidy, The Japan Times, December 17
Fewer Voices, More Control: Vietnam Reshapes Its Media. Vietnam’s government is implementing radical media reforms to consolidate control and reduce costs. The plan, led by Communist Party chief To Lam, involves merging or closing media outlets, cutting 8,000 jobs, and streamlining operations. Major state-run broadcasters like Vietnam Television (VTV) will absorb smaller entities, while ministries will be limited to one publication each. This effort aims to create a unified propaganda system, focusing resources on digital media to counter social media’s influence. Critics warn that over-centralization may weaken efficiency, stifle already limited pluralism, and increase self-censorship, undermining the regime’s stability goals. Nguyen Khac Giang and Dien Nguyen An Luong, Fulcrum, December 17