Asia Daily: December 16, 2024
Kyrgyzstan's president dismisses prime minister. President Sadyr Japarov has removed Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov from his post, citing a transfer to another position. First Deputy Prime Minister Adylbek Kasymaliyev will assume interim prime ministerial duties. Akylbek Japarov, who served as prime minister since 2021, was dismissed amid Kyrgyzstan's ongoing political and economic challenges. The nation, heavily reliant on remittances from workers in Russia, faces persistent instability stemming from its post-Soviet transition. Maria Gordeyeva and Lidia Kelly, Reuters, December 16
Sri Lanka’s president holds talks with Modi in India in first overseas visit. Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to strengthen economic and strategic ties amid concerns over China’s influence in the region. The two leaders announced plans for electricity grid connectivity and a multi-product petroleum pipeline to enhance investment and trade links. India has increased economic and defense ties with Sri Lanka, particularly after providing critical support during the island nation’s 2022 economic collapse. AP News, December 16
Constitutional Court to begin Yoon's impeachment trial Dec. 27. South Korea’s Constitutional Court announced it will hold the first preparatory hearing for President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment on December 27, following his December 3 declaration of martial law. The National Assembly passed an impeachment motion, suspending Yoon’s presidential powers and sending the case for judicial review. The court has 180 days to decide whether to remove Yoon or reinstate him. Currently operating with six justices, a unanimous ruling is required for impeachment. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, December 16
PMs bolster Thai-Malaysia ties. Thailand and Malaysia have set a target to boost bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2027, focusing on infrastructure, border connectivity, and tourism. During a two-day official visit, Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Malaysian counterpart Anwar Ibrahim agreed to expedite cross-border transport agreements, rail link improvements, and regional logistics projects. Malaysia reaffirmed its support for Thailand’s southern peace process as both nations aim to deepen economic and strategic partnerships. Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, December 17
Malaysia PM appoints Thai heavyweight Thaksin his adviser on ASEAN. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has appointed former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra as his personal adviser ahead of Malaysia’s 2025 chairmanship of ASEAN. Thaksin, who will serve in an informal capacity, was praised for his statesmanship and experience. The appointment was announced during a visit by Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s daughter. Thaksin has reportedly sought to mediate Myanmar’s conflict, a key issue for Anwar’s ASEAN leadership next year. Ashley Tang and Panu Wongcha-um, Reuters, December 16
Prosecutors again summon Yoon to appear for questioning. South Korean prosecutors have again summoned President Yoon Suk Yeol for questioning over his December 3 declaration of martial law, following his rejection of a prior request. Yoon faces charges of insurrection and abuse of power, with the special investigation unit seeking his cooperation. A joint investigation team, involving police and other agencies, also attempted to deliver a summons for Yoon to appear Wednesday but was denied access. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, December 16
U.S., Uzbek think tanks agree to work together. The Caspian Policy Center and Uzbekistan’s Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies have signed a strategic partnership agreement to collaborate on joint research projects. The deal aims to strengthen ties between the two countries through dialogue and cooperation. Discussions during the partnership’s formation included U.S. foreign policy in Central Asia and Uzbekistan’s economic reforms, which are seen as opportunities for expanding American business presence. The Times of Central Asia, December 16
Top Chinese and Indian officials to discuss Himalayan border dispute this week. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will host India’s national security adviser Ajit Doval in Beijing for the first meeting under the “special representatives dialogue” mechanism since 2019. The talks aim to resolve the Himalayan border dispute and advance the consensus reached by Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi in October, which included disengaging troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The meeting follows years of tension following deadly clashes in 2020, with hopes of improving economic ties and strengthening diplomatic cooperation. Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post, December 16
Indonesia in no haste to recognize new Syrian government. Indonesia will not rush to recognize Syria's new government following the fall of the Assad regime on December 8. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Rolliansyah Soemirat emphasized the importance of Syria’s return to stability and urged for an inclusive authority that upholds UN Security Council resolutions. Indonesia will monitor Syria’s transition closely and raise related issues in international forums, including the UN. Deputy Foreign Minister Anis Matta called for peaceful democratic governance, political consensus, and economic recovery to prioritize the Syrian people's welfare. ANTARA News, December 16
NA prepares for political system reform in 2025. Vietnam’s National Assembly (NA) will convene its 9th extraordinary session in February 2025 to discuss reforms aimed at restructuring its agencies, the NA Standing Committee, and government bodies. The session will focus on amendments to key laws, including the Law on NA Organisation and Government Organisation. The restructuring aims to reduce units by over 30%, improving efficiency. NA Chairman Tran Thanh Man emphasized the reforms as a crucial step toward a leaner political system. Vietnam News, December 16
Japan ruling, opposition camps agree to abolish dubious policy funds. Japan’s ruling and opposition parties have agreed to abolish policy activity funds criticized for their lack of transparency. The decision follows the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) loss of its House of Representatives majority after an October election marred by a slush money scandal. The LDP dropped its demand to exempt certain funds from disclosure and will support a bill introduced by opposition parties. The ruling and opposition camps also plan to establish a third-party body to oversee political funds while postponing decisions on corporate donations until March. Kyodo News, December 16
Philippine Senate ratifies military access agreement with Japan. The Philippine Senate has approved a reciprocal access agreement (RAA) with Japan, enabling mutual military deployments for training and disaster response. This marks Japan’s first such agreement in Asia and is part of efforts to counter China’s assertive actions in the East and South China Seas. Signed in July by defense and foreign ministers, the deal required parliamentary approval. Japan has similar agreements with Australia and Britain and is negotiating one with France. Mikhail Flores and Neil Jerome Morales, Reuters, December 16
Han Dong-hoon steps down as People Power Party leader. Han Dong-hoon resigned as leader of South Korea's People Power Party (PPP) on Monday, ending a 146-day tenure that began in July. His resignation follows the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol and the party’s earlier defeat in the April 10 general elections. Han took responsibility for failing to prevent the current political crisis, while warning against election fraud conspiracy theories and extreme rhetoric. Han is expected to run in the early presidential election. Hye-Ryung Choi, The Dong-A Ilbo, December 17
Senate likely to stand behind referendum pick. Thailand's Senate is set to vote Tuesday on a referendum bill regarding constitutional amendments, with senators expected to support the contentious double-majority rule. The rule, upheld by a joint MP-Senate committee, requires over 50% voter turnout and majority approval. MPs had advocated for a single-majority rule, but the Senate prevailed in committee deliberations. The decision may delay the bill’s passage due to a 180-day “cooling-off period.” While senators are free to debate the issue, concerns remain about ratification before the current government's term ends. Bangkok Post, December 16
Survey: 73% disapprove of LDP’s efforts on funding reforms. An Asahi Shimbun survey found that 73% of voters disapprove of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) response to political funding issues, which contributed to its recent election losses. Only 13% expressed approval. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Cabinet approval rating rose slightly to 36%, though 54% of respondents viewed his actions as insincere. The survey also highlighted growing support for the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), particularly among younger voters. Daizo Teramoto and Kazuaki Isoda, The Asahi Shimbun, December 16
For the first time in 8 years, a US Navy ship makes a port call in Cambodia, a top Chinese ally. The USS Savannah, a Littoral Combat Ship, arrived at Cambodia’s Sihanoukville port for a five-day visit, marking the first such U.S. Navy port call since 2016. Concerns remain over Cambodia’s close alignment with China, particularly regarding the Chinese-funded upgrades at the nearby Ream Naval Base. U.S.-Cambodia military cooperation has shown renewed momentum following U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s June visit, despite Washington’s ongoing apprehensions about China’s strategic influence in the region. Sopheng Cheang, AP News, December 16
Groups protest Chinese delegation. A Chinese delegation led by Shanghai Vice Mayor Hua Yuan arrived in Taipei for the Taipei-Shanghai Twin-City Forum amid protests and political tensions. Pro-independence groups criticized the event as Chinese propaganda, while pro-unification supporters welcomed the delegation. The Mainland Affairs Council allowed the forum despite recent tensions over China's “22 guidelines” targeting Taiwanese independence advocates. Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an defended the importance of dialogue during strained cross-strait relations. Ho Yu-hua and Jason Pan, The Taipei Times, December 17
Trump’s Second Term Might Open Pandora’s Nuclear Box Globally. The global nuclear order, built on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), faces escalating challenges due to rising great power tensions and the potential return of former U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump’s nuclear policies prioritize superiority over disarmament and multilateral cooperation, undermining global nonproliferation efforts. His disregard for traditional alliances, focus on military modernization, and unilateral strategies threaten stability in Northeast Asia and the Middle East. Trump’s stance on freezing North Korea’s nuclear arsenal instead of complete denuclearization could provoke South Korea to pursue its own nuclear weapons. Similarly, withdrawing from agreements like the Iran nuclear deal could trigger Iran’s enrichment activities and escalate regional tensions, potentially leading to new nuclear-armed states. Jun Bong-Geun, Korea on Point, December 15
US-ROK Cyber Cooperation: Promises and Challenges Ahead. The United States and South Korea are expanding their cyber cooperation to address evolving challenges, including North Korea’s cyber activities and intensifying geopolitical competition. The alliance has strengthened through joint statements, working groups, and military-to-military cyber dialogues, alongside trilateral engagements with Japan. Despite efforts to curb North Korea’s cryptocurrency theft and money laundering, its ties with Russia complicate enforcement of sanctions. Both nations must develop a coordinated response to disruptive cyber operations targeting public and private sectors while preparing for greater difficulties in limiting North Korea’s cyber-enabled evasion strategies. Jenny Jun and So Jeong Kim, Korea Economic Institute of America, December 16
Beijing Pivots Towards Private Pensions. China is expanding its private pension system to address the mounting financial strain caused by its rapidly aging population. As of December 15, the government has launched a national expansion of its two-year-old pilot project, allowing citizens to open private pension accounts with tax incentives for contributions up to 12,000 RMB annually. Local authorities are also encouraged to introduce additional financial products, such as government bonds, for these accounts. This complements Beijing's gradual plan to raise the retirement age over the next 15 years to better align with longer life expectancies. Carl Minzner, Council on Foreign Relations, December 16
India Between Superpowers: Strategic Autonomy in the Shadow of a Pacific Conflict. India’s long-standing policy of “strategic autonomy” faces growing challenges due to rising tensions between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific. Historically, India has balanced relations with global powers, but today it exists within a more complex environment. Russia’s isolation since the Ukraine invasion has strengthened its reliance on India. However, as China strengthens its ties with Russia and increases activities in the South China Sea, India’s role as a neutral and influential actor becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. Davide Donald, Council on Foreign Relations, December 16
Impact of Household Consumption Growth on China’s GDP Growth.
China’s long-term GDP growth faces great challenges due to deep economic imbalances, with consumption accounting for only 56% of GDP compared to a global average of 76%, while investment remains extraordinarily high at 42%. Without major structural reforms to boost household income and consumption, growth is likely to slow to 3–4% annually, limiting GDP growth to around 3% over the next decade. Three scenarios emerge: GDP outpacing consumption growth (unlikely due to unsustainable debt and investment reliance), GDP growing in line with consumption (maintaining imbalances), or the most probable outcome—rebalancing the economy, where consumption outpaces GDP growth, potentially lowering GDP growth to 1–2%. Sustainable economic stability hinges on Beijing prioritizing consumption-driven growth, as the current investment-heavy model risks exacerbating debt and global trade tensions. Michael Pettis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 16
China Baits Indonesia to Soften South China Sea Stance. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s November 2024 state visit to China marked a change in Indonesia’s approach to the South China Sea, with a joint statement suggesting “joint development in areas of overlapping claims,” implicitly acknowledging Chinese territorial claims. This departure from Indonesia’s previous stance reflects China’s strategy of combining economic incentives—such as pledges of $10 billion in investments and support for key domestic initiatives—with its maritime ambitions. Prabowo’s focus on foreign investment to address Indonesia’s economic challenges, coupled with his politicization of the Foreign Ministry, sidelined institutional safeguards and career diplomats. While Indonesia remains eager for Chinese economic assistance, the joint statement may inadvertently bolster Chinese claims over Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) near the Natuna Islands. This development serves as a warning to Southeast Asian nations about balancing economic cooperation with sovereignty, especially as U.S. economic engagement in the region remains limited. Jefferson Ng, East Asia Forum, December 16
The Next Critical Step in South Korea’s Impeachment: The Constitutional Court. The impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol by the National Assembly on December 14, 2024, now moves to the Constitutional Court for review. The impeachment, passed with 204 votes, including 12 from the ruling People’s Power Party. The Constitutional Court has up to 180 days to determine whether the charges, which include alleged abuse of power and mishandling of key policies, warrant Yoon’s removal. The court’s decision will be closely scrutinized for its political and legal ramifications, as it could set a precedent for South Korea’s democratic governance. Victor Cha and Ellen Kim, CSIS, December 16
Bangladesh’s Descent into Islamist Violence. Following the ouster of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, Bangladesh has descended into political turmoil and rising Islamist violence. While Hasina’s authoritarian rule suppressed Islamist movements, her removal—backed by the military—created a power vacuum, enabling extremist groups to expand their influence. Lawlessness and human rights abuses have escalated, turning Bangladesh into a potential global flashpoint. The military’s role in the regime change shows its growing ambitions, as it installed an interim administration while sidelining democratic processes. Brahma Chellaney, The Japan Times, December 16
Green Tech and U.S.-China Rivalry: Two Sides of the Same Coin. The competition between the United States and China in green technology has become a central pillar of their geopolitical rivalry. While President Joe Biden advanced policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to improve U.S. green technology and electric vehicle sectors, the incoming Trump administration threatens to reverse these initiatives. Despite Trump’s climate skepticism, maintaining industrial policies that challenge China’s dominance in clean energy production is critical for U.S. competitiveness. Akhil Ramesh, The Japan Times, December 16
Fan Bingbing: Tourism Ambassadorship and China’s Soft Power. Chinese actress Fan Bingbing’s appointment as Melaka’s tourism ambassador shows a change in China’s soft power strategy, which is increasingly driven by private-sector initiatives. Fan’s three-day promotional tour in June 2024 boosted tourism interest in Melaka, generating hundreds of millions of searches on Chinese platforms and exceeding visitor targets. Her role, privately funded with limited state involvement, reflects a growing trend where influential figures, rather than formal state institutions, lead cultural diplomacy. This celebrity-driven approach reinforces China’s influence abroad and symbolizes enduring ties with Malaysia, particularly during the 50th anniversary of their diplomatic relations. Peter T. C. Chang, Fulcrum, December 17
The State Administration Council and the Restyling of Myanmar’s Economy.
Since Myanmar’s 2021 military coup, the State Administration Council (SAC) has reshaped economic policies, moving from market-based mechanisms to regime-controlled resource allocation. Measures include administratively determined exchange rates, trade licensing restrictions, and fixed pricing for key commodities, exacerbating inflation and economic instability. Businesses with military ties have benefitted greatly, while others face challenges due to forex manipulation and corruption. Despite widespread economic decline, some businesses have thrived through managerial initiative or consumer boycotts against military-linked firms. The SAC’s policies demonstrate deep systemic inefficiencies and growing economic hardship for Myanmar’s population. Jared Bissinger, Fulcrum, December 13