Asia Daily: December 15, 2023
News
Embattled Japan PM Kishida ousts LDP's most powerful faction from Cabinet. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has conducted a significant cabinet reshuffle, removing all ministers from the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) dominant faction. This move is in response to a political fundraising scandal, signaling a major alteration in the party's structure and power balance. Kishida's decision is part of an effort to restore public trust and address declining approval ratings, reflecting the challenges facing his administration. Satoshi Iizuka, Kyodo News, December 15
Exclusive: Chinese Premier Li Qiang to attend Davos summit. In a significant move, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is scheduled to lead a delegation to the upcoming World Economic Forum in Davos, marking the highest-level Chinese presence since President Xi Jinping in 2017. This attendance is aimed at demonstrating China's commitment to global economic cooperation and openness post-pandemic. It also represents an opportunity for China to address international concerns and bolster its economic recovery strategy. Laurie Chen and Julie Zhu, Reuters, December 14
DPP urges China to focus on its people, not Taiwan. Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has countered China's Taiwan Affairs Office's criticism, urging China to concentrate on democracy for its citizens rather than on Taiwan. This response comes amidst ongoing political tensions, with the DPP advocating for Taiwan's sovereignty and self-rule. The exchange underscores the deep-rooted differences and challenges in cross-strait relations. Chen Yun and Jason Pan, Taipei Times, December 14
Analyst warns of China's disinformation campaign. Political science expert Dr. Sherwin Ona highlighted concerns about China's intensified disinformation efforts in the West Philippine Sea. He emphasized China's tactics of portraying the Philippines as the aggressor and avoiding armed conflict while spreading misleading narratives. The report calls for the Philippines to bolster regional collaborations and enhance its military capabilities in response to these challenges. Kristina Maralit, Francisco Tuyay, and Ma. Reina Leanne Tolentino, The Manila Times, December 14
Philippines 'wargaming' Chinese hostilities as sea standoffs intensify. The Philippines is preparing for potential escalations in the South China Sea, including scenarios where Chinese forces might attempt to board Philippine vessels. This response follows recent maritime incidents with China, reflecting deteriorating ties and increasing tensions. The Philippines is strengthening its military ties with the United States and other Western powers amid these challenges. Neil Jerome Morales, Reuters, December 14
‘I wouldn’t say I’m optimistic’ about state of US-China relations, says ambassador to Beijing Nicholas Burns. US Ambassador Nicholas Burns expressed a cautious stance on the current state of US-China relations, citing China as a "systemic rival." Despite recent efforts to stabilize relations, Burns remains realistic yet hopeful, acknowledging the complexity of US-China dynamics. The ambassador's comments follow a period of significant diplomatic and political challenges, reflecting the nuanced and evolving nature of the bilateral relationship. Robert Delaney, South China Morning Post, December 15
N. Korea condemns missile warning data sharing between S. Korea, U.S., Japan. North Korea criticizes South Korea, the U.S., and Japan for their plan to implement a real-time missile warning data sharing system, labeling it as a provocative military action. The system, part of increased security coordination against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, is set to be operational soon. Pyongyang's state media views this as an aggressive move, potentially escalating regional tensions. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, December 14
Foreign Ministers of Việt Nam, Benin hold talks. Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bùi Thanh Sơn and Beninese counterpart Olushegun Adjadi Bakari engaged in discussions to boost bilateral ties, focusing on trade, investment, and agriculture. They signed a Memorandum of Understanding to enhance relations and explored ways to increase collaboration between ASEAN and ECOWAS. This meeting underscores the growing partnership between Việt Nam and Benin. Vietnam News, Vietnam News, December 14
PM Lee to visit Japan for ASEAN commemorative summit. Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is scheduled to visit Tokyo for a four-day working trip to attend the 50th Year Commemorative Summit of ASEAN-Japan Friendship and Cooperation. The summit will focus on deepening the ASEAN-Japan Dialogue Partnership, including digital and green economies. Lee will also have bilateral meetings with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and other notable Japanese figures. Channel News Asia, December 14
North Korea may test ICBM soon, South official says ahead of nuclear talks in DC. A senior South Korean official anticipates North Korea might test-launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) soon. This prediction comes ahead of nuclear talks with U.S. officials in Washington, focusing on North Korea's growing nuclear threats. The official emphasized the importance of the U.S.'s "extended deterrence" strategy in the region. Jack Kim, Reuters, December 15
Long Form
After APEC: Whither US Leadership on Trade? The November meeting of APEC highlighted concerns about the United States' leadership and commitment to the Asia-Pacific region, particularly regarding the Indo-Pacific Economic Partnership for Prosperity (IPEF). The IPEF, announced in May 2022, was expected to be a significant part of the U.S.'s strategy to address non-tariff barriers and enhance competition with China. However, Washington's failure to approve the IPEF trade pillar sent a mixed message to its Asia-Pacific partners. This situation raises questions about the future of U.S. leadership in trade and economic partnerships in the region, especially in the context of evolving global trade dynamics and competition. By Chris Dixon and Bob Savic, The Diplomat, December 15
Did Putin's Tip Lead Xi to Purge His Foreign Minister? The sudden removal of Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang last summer may have been influenced by a tip-off from Moscow, according to sources familiar with China-Russia relations. This move came after a Chinese delegation's visit to Ukraine, indicating a shift in Beijing's stance on the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia's frustration with the global political landscape shifting and fear of China supporting Ukraine led to the sharing of information about Qin, who was labeled as pro-U.S. due to his previous role as ambassador to the U.S. The information, possibly related to Qin's extramarital affair and connections, led to his dismissal and China's return to a pro-Moscow stance. This development highlights the complex political dynamics between China, Russia, and the U.S., and the impact of internal affairs on international relations. By Katsuji Nakazawa, Nikkei Asia, December 15
Forging A U.S.-South Korea Alliance Powered By Chips, Batteries, And Clean Technologies. The U.S. and South Korea are deepening their alliance through collaboration in critical and emerging technologies (CET), as evidenced by the first-ever U.S.-South Korea Next Generation CET Dialogue. This partnership, covering semiconductor development, biotechnology, batteries, clean energy technology, quantum computing, and AI, aims to elevate technology coordination alongside security. The U.S. National Science Foundation and South Korea’s Ministry of Science and ICT will promote joint R&D in leading technologies, while U.S. national labs and South Korean counterparts will develop next-generation batteries and clean energy technologies. The collaboration also extends to international governance frameworks for AI and digital connectivity. This deepened cooperation is expected to integrate the two countries’ approaches toward technology, preserving their leadership in global standards and innovation. By Scott A. Snyder, Forbes, December 15
How Workforce Training Is Helping Indonesia Modernize Its Economy. Indonesia's aspiration to become a high-income developed country by 2045 is being supported by a national program focusing on harnessing human capital. With a population of 270 million, of which 147.7 million are in the workforce, Indonesia faces challenges such as high unemployment and low female workforce participation. The government is addressing these issues through skill development programs, as nearly 90% of the workforce have not received any workforce training. President Joko Widodo's Kartu Prakerja program, launched in 2020, is a key initiative in this effort. It provides vouchers for training courses and cash incentives upon completion, reaching over 5 million people in its first year. The program has increased the percentage of the workforce receiving training and has shown positive outcomes in terms of income increase for recipients. This approach is crucial for Indonesia to maximize the gains from its favorable demographics and move towards its goal of economic modernization. By Cahyo Prihadi, East Asia Forum, December 15
Pyongyang’s Pivot Back to Military Tensions and Cold War Alliances. In 2023, North Korea intensified its military activities and reinforced alliances with Russia and China, while making no progress in diplomacy with the United States and South Korea. Kim Jong-un’s call for an increase in tactical nuclear weapons production and the unveiling of new missiles signaled a departure from inter-Korean cooperation. North Korea's response to the US–South Korea summit further strained relations with Seoul. Strengthening ties with Russia and China, North Korea supported Russia's actions in Ukraine and deepened cooperation, including military and space program assistance. Pyongyang's successful satellite launch in November, allegedly with Russian support, and the suspension of the 2018 inter-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement indicate heightened risks of border clashes and further military provocations. These developments suggest a deteriorating security situation on the Korean Peninsula and a return to Cold War-era dynamics. By Gabriela Bernal, East Asia Forum, December 15