Asia Daily: December 14, 2023
News
China’s finance ministry officials meet Hong Kong and global bankers on boosting city’s finance-hub role: sources. Officials from China's Ministry of Finance convened with representatives from Hong Kong's leading banks and international bankers to discuss strategies for enhancing Hong Kong's role as a global financial hub. This meeting follows a similar gathering hosted by the People’s Bank of China in November, signaling Beijing's heightened attention to Hong Kong's financial sector challenges. The discussions focused on expanding the city's "connect schemes" for cross-border trading and enhancing the internationalization of the yuan and aimed at garnering insights on how to increase Hong Kong's financial competitiveness amidst global economic uncertainties and the recent decline in stock market performance. Enoch Yiu, South China Morning Post, December 13
Man jumps into Indian parliament, sets off smoke can in major security breach. In a significant security breach at the Indian Parliament, a man managed to enter the lawmakers' area, where he shouted slogans and set off a smoke can. This incident occurred on the significant date of the 22nd anniversary of a previous deadly attack on the Parliament complex. The event raises concerns about parliamentary security and protocols. YP Rajesh, Reuters, December 13
PH-China war remote possibility – expert. According to a maritime security expert, the likelihood of a full-scale war between China and the Philippines remains distant, despite ongoing tensions in the West Philippine Sea (WPS). Retired Rear Admiral Rommel Jude Ong from the Ateneo School of Government stated that China's actions are measured, designed to avoid the economic and diplomatic repercussions of a conflict. This analysis follows recent incidents, including a China Coast Guard ship ramming a Philippine vessel in the WPS. Ong advocates for internationalizing the WPS issue to moderate China's actions and cautions the Philippine government against hasty diplomatic decisions, like recalling ambassadors, without careful consideration of their effectiveness. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, December 13
Japan PM vows to replace ministers Dec. 14 over funds scandals. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to replace several ministers on December 14 amidst a political fundraising scandal. The scandal, involving the underreporting of party revenue by Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led to the voting down of a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet. Key figures in the scandal, including Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, are expected to be replaced. This move comes as prosecutors investigate potential legal violations, and the LDP faces growing public criticism over the allegations. Kyodo News, December 13
Defense chief meets 8 NATO representatives to expand security, defense industry cooperation. South Korea's Defense Minister Shin Won-sik engaged with NATO representatives from the U.S., Britain, Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Poland, focusing on expanding security and defense industry cooperation. The meeting, underscoring NATO's interest in the Indo-Pacific region, highlighted the importance of international collaboration against North Korean threats. Both sides committed to enhancing cooperation for global stability, with South Korea participating in NATO's cyber exercises to fortify these ties. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, December 13
Taiwan's foreign minister Joseph Wu says he will step down- WSJ. Joseph Wu, Taiwan's longest-serving foreign minister, announced his plan to vacate his position in the coming months. This information was revealed in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. Wu's tenure as foreign minister has been marked by significant developments in Taiwan's international relations, particularly amidst increasing tensions with China and efforts to strengthen alliances with other nations. His decision to step down represents a notable change in Taiwan's diplomatic leadership. Reuters, December 13
China shows off homegrown C919 jet in Hong Kong. China showcased its domestically produced C919 passenger jet in Hong Kong, marking the aircraft's first appearance outside mainland China. The C919, key to Beijing's ambition to compete with Western aviation giants and reduce reliance on foreign technology, is positioned to challenge models like the Boeing 737 MAX and the Airbus A320. The jet, developed by the state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (COMAC), has already received over 1,000 orders. Although many of its parts are sourced internationally, the C919's development signifies China's push towards self-sufficiency in key technologies. The aircraft, which landed in Hong Kong on Tuesday, will perform a flyover of Hong Kong Island if weather permits. Channel News Asia, December 13
ASEAN-Israel Dialogue Gains Momentum Amidst Critical Geopolitical Dynamics. As Laos prepares to assume the ASEAN chairmanship in 2024, the ASEAN-Israel dialogue is gaining traction, emphasizing deepening economic and cultural exchanges. This year marked the 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties between Israel and Laos, highlighting the potential for future collaboration. Israel's technological innovation aligns with ASEAN nations' objectives, aiming to enhance economic, scientific, and cultural exchanges between the Middle East and Southeast Asia. The focus extends beyond diplomatic relations, particularly emphasizing tourism development. In preparation for the Visit Laos Year 2024, a celebration of Laotian culture and natural beauty, Israel and Laos have intensified their tourism collaboration, with two Israeli agencies recently establishing offices in Laos to facilitate cultural exchange and mutual understanding. Beatrice Siviero, The Laotian Times, December 13
Chinese Party, State leader Xi Jinping concludes state visit to Việt Nam. Chinese leader Xi Jinping concluded a significant two-day state visit to Vietnam, marking a new phase in the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between the two countries. This visit, which involved high-level talks with Vietnam's top leaders, reflected on the traditional friendship and comradeship established by historical figures like President Hồ Chí Minh and President Mao Zedong. The discussions emphasized a shared vision of cooperation and mutual respect, aligning with principles of the United Nations Charter and international law. A total of 36 cooperation documents were signed, focusing on various fields and setting a new direction for future collaboration. Vietnam News, December 13
US and Taiwan to keep pressing for Taipei’s inclusion in WHA and other international bodies. The US and Taiwan are intensifying efforts to include Taipei in the World Health Assembly (WHA) and other multilateral organizations, following a failed bid earlier this year. Discussions between the US State Department and Taiwan's foreign ministry focused on supporting Taiwan’s participation in global public health bodies and non-UN international organizations. Despite Taiwan's exclusion from the WHA since 2017 due to mainland China's opposition, there is growing international support for Taiwan's observer status, particularly from the US and Britain, acknowledging Taiwan's effective handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. Robert Delaney, South China Morning Post, December 14
Long Form
At China Summit, EU Leaders Pushed Xi Jinping on Chinese Firms’ Breach of Russia Sanctions. During a recent summit in Beijing, EU leaders confronted Chinese President Xi Jinping over the involvement of Chinese firms in breaching sanctions against Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel emphasized the importance of China's response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine. They presented a list of 13 Chinese entities accused of circumventing sanctions and urged Xi to address these violations. The EU's stance reflects growing concerns about China's role in supporting Russia's war efforts, particularly through the export and re-export of equipment found in Ukraine. The summit highlights the EU's more robust approach towards China and the complexities of enforcing international sanctions. By Duncan Bartlett, The Diplomat, December 13
Analysis: Did Putin's Tip Lead Xi to Purge His Foreign Minister? The sudden removal of Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang last summer may have been influenced by a tip-off from Moscow, according to sources familiar with China-Russia relations. This move came after a Chinese delegation's visit to Ukraine, indicating a shift in Beijing's stance on the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia's frustration with the global political landscape shifting and fear of China supporting Ukraine led to the sharing of information about Qin, who was labeled as pro-U.S. due to his previous role as ambassador to the U.S. The information, possibly related to Qin's extramarital affair and connections, led to his dismissal and China's return to a pro-Moscow stance. This development highlights the complex political dynamics between China, Russia, and the U.S., and the impact of internal affairs on international relations. By Katsuji Nakazawa, Nikkei Asia, December 12
The Big One: Preparing for a Long War With China
The prospect of Chinese military aggression in the Indo-Pacific has shifted from hypothetical to a real concern for U.S. defense planners. With China's military buildup and assertive actions in the region, particularly regarding Taiwan, the possibility of a protracted conventional war between China and a U.S.-led coalition is increasingly plausible. This potential conflict, the first great-power war since World War II and involving two nuclear powers, would likely avoid nuclear escalation due to mutually assured destruction. Strategies of war such as annihilation, attrition, and exhaustion are considered, with a focus on how they might be employed in a conflict with China. By Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr., Foreign Affairs, December 12
One of the World’s Hardest Diplomatic Jobs Is About to Open Up. Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, who has served as the island's longest-serving foreign minister since becoming a democracy, plans to step down after Taiwan's January presidential election. During his tenure, Wu played a key role in strengthening ties between Taipei and Washington while facing increasing pressure from Beijing. His departure comes at a critical time for Taiwan, as it navigates complex relations with the U.S. and China. Wu's tenure saw a reduction in the number of countries that diplomatically recognize Taiwan, emphasizing the need for Taiwan to cultivate friendships with major democracies beyond its diplomatic allies. His approach included high-profile engagements, such as welcoming then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan and accompanying President Tsai Ing-wen on a transit visit to California. Wu's departure marks a significant change for Taiwan's foreign ministry, leaving a challenging role for his successor amidst ongoing tensions in the region. By Joyu Wang, The Wall Street Journal, December 12
Soldiers Surrender, Bases Fall and a Powerful Army No Longer Seems Invincible. Myanmar's military, once considered a formidable force, is facing significant challenges and setbacks, marking its biggest challenge in decades. The article details an instance where the acting commander of the 125th Infantry Battalion had to instruct his troops to surrender after enduring days of bombardment. This event is indicative of the broader struggles faced by the Myanmar military, which has been under intense pressure since its 2021 coup. The junta's enemies are making unprecedented gains, suggesting a shift in the balance of power within the country. This development represents a notable change in Myanmar's political and military landscape, with potential implications for the region's stability and future. By Feliz Solomon and Rachel Liang, The Wall Street Journal, December 12