Asia Daily: December 13, 2024
Biden administration inks renewed science cooperation deal with China; Republicans cry foul. The U.S. and China renewed the 45-year-old Science and Technology Agreement (STA) with added national security measures, despite Republican opposition. The updated deal limits cooperation to basic research, omitting critical technologies amid concerns over intellectual property and data transparency. Republicans argued the renewal undermines the incoming Trump administration, while China welcomed the agreement as a step toward addressing global challenges. Michael Martina and David Brunnstrom, Reuters, December 13
China urges Kachin rebels to stop fighting Myanmar junta. China has called on the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) to end hostilities against Myanmar's military regime and safeguard Chinese investments, including Belt and Road projects. During a Kunming meeting, Chinese officials advised the KIA to maintain the status quo and pursue political dialogue post-elections planned for next year. The KIA controls rare-earth mining areas critical to China’s industries. Beijing has proposed deploying private security to protect its projects and reopened some border crossings to pressure the KIA into a ceasefire. The Irrawaddy, December 13
China’s military is staying silent on its recent activity around Taiwan. China has not confirmed the large deployment of naval and coast guard ships near Taiwan this week, which Taiwanese officials described as a simulated blockade. Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian deflected questions, citing a quote from “The Art of War” about adapting to circumstances. While China’s state media typically publicizes such maneuvers, this activity has gone unacknowledged, contrasting with past drills. Taiwan called the deployment threatening, linking it to President Tsai Ing-wen’s recent visit to U.S. territories. AP News, December 13
Vietnam announces candidacy for next-term UN Human Rights Council. Vietnam officially launched its bid for re-election to the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) for the 2026–2028 term during an event in New York. Deputy Foreign Minister Do Hung Viet highlighted the nation’s contributions to human rights initiatives, including support for vulnerable groups and climate change-related resolutions. Ambassador Riyad Mansour praised Vietnam’s advocacy for justice and expressed confidence in its re-election. Vietnam News, December 13
Japan's upper house election likely on July 13. Japan's House of Councillors election is expected to take place on July 13, following the likely start of a 150-day parliamentary session on January 21. The election, the first nationwide poll under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government, must be held before the current terms for half of the upper house members end on July 28. The ruling coalition faces challenges from an emboldened opposition after losing its lower house majority in October, with the election timing contingent on legislative progress. Kyodo News, December 13
National Assembly set to vote on new impeachment motion against Yoon. South Korea’s opposition-controlled National Assembly will vote Saturday on a second impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol, following his controversial martial law declaration. The motion, requiring a two-thirds majority, needs support from at least eight members of Yoon's People Power Party (PPP); seven have publicly backed it. Allegations of martial law troops attempting to arrest lawmakers were added to the case. If passed, the Constitutional Court will determine Yoon's fate. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, December 13
15 LDP Lower House members to speak before ethics panel. Fifteen Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Lower House members implicated in a fund-raising scandal will testify before the political ethics panel on December 17-19, marking compliance from all summoned incumbents. The scandal, involving unreported proceeds from faction fund-raising parties, has already led to significant political fallout, including the LDP-Komeito coalition losing its Lower House majority in October. Former LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Koichi Hagiuda is among those implicated. The party aims to resolve the issue by year-end, but details about the origins of the practice remain unclear. The Asahi Shimbun, December 13
‘Bigger picture’: China’s PLA hosts young Japanese officers in renewed military exchange. China’s People’s Liberation Army hosted Japanese military officers for a nine-day visit to Beijing, Chengdu, and Guangzhou, including meetings at the PLA Academy of Military Sciences. This exchange, the second since regular visits resumed post-pandemic, aims to rebuild trust amid strained ties over territorial disputes and geopolitical tensions. Both nations seek to foster dialogue and improve defense relations, with over 400 officers participating in the program since 2001. Vanessa Cai, South China Morning Post, December 13
Tajikistan officials announce discovery of major rare earth deposits. Tajikistan has identified 15 rare earth element deposits in its eastern regions, previously inaccessible due to difficult terrain. Authorities plan further studies to determine the size of these deposits and attract foreign investment. The government is prioritizing development of lithium, tungsten, and nickel while enhancing domestic processing. Despite these discoveries, experts question Tajikistan’s ability to benefit fully due to governance and corruption issues. Eurasianet, December 13.
Pres. Yoon: Martial law is an act of governance. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol defended his declaration of martial law in a 29-minute address, calling it a constitutional act to protect liberal democracy and dismissing accusations of treason. Criticized by both ruling and opposition parties, Yoon claimed the deployment of troops was to maintain order but faced allegations of ordering the forced removal of lawmakers. The Democratic Party has demanded Yoon’s arrest for inciting unrest and destroying evidence. Hyung-Jun Hwang, The Dong-A Ilbo, December 13
Palang Pracharath kicks out dissenting MPs. Thailand’s Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) expelled 20 MPs loyal to former secretary-general Thamanat Prompow due to internal disputes with party leader Prawit Wongsuwon. Secretary-General Paiboon Nititawan announced the decision after a vote on Wednesday, rejecting rumors of Prawit’s resignation and reaffirming his leadership. The expelled MPs, including Atthakorn Sirilatthayakorn, cited differences in political philosophy rather than misconduct. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, December 13
Lao government introduces digital border fees for tourists. Starting September 1, Laos implemented a digital border fee of LAK 10,000 (USD 0.46) for domestic and international tourists at seven border checkpoints. The fee, processed via the "Easy Pass" system, aims to improve transparency and streamline payments. Foreign tourists pay upon entry, while domestic travelers pay upon exit, with exemptions for diplomats, children, and others. Assistance is available for those unfamiliar with electronic payments. Kheuakham Chanlivong, The Laotian Times, December 13
Singapore, Vietnam firms in talks for new undersea cables, sources say. Singapore's Keppel and Vietnam's Sovico Group are in discussions to develop undersea fiber-optic cables to support the region’s expanding data center industry. One proposal involves a $150 million direct cable linking Vietnam to Singapore, while another envisions a larger consortium-backed cable connecting Singapore to Japan with links to other nations. U.S. officials have urged Vietnam and Singapore to avoid Chinese contractors due to security concerns. Francesco Guarascio and Phuong Nguyen, Reuters, December 13
A U.S. Navy ship will make its first port call in 8 years in Cambodia, a close ally of China. The USS Savannah, a Littoral Combat Ship, will dock in Sihanoukville from December 16-20, marking the first U.S. naval visit to Cambodia in eight years. Cambodia’s defense ministry emphasized the visit’s goal of strengthening bilateral ties, despite strained relations over human rights concerns and suspicions about Chinese military activity at the nearby Ream Naval Base. While Savannah will not dock at Ream, the visit includes meetings with Ream's commander and joint activities with Cambodian naval crews. Sopheng Cheang, AP News, December 13
Indonesia president suggests scrapping regional elections to cut costs. President Prabowo Subianto proposed eliminating regional elections, advocating for local leaders to be chosen by legislatures. He argued the change would reduce costs, allowing funds to be redirected to education and school meals. Critics warn the move risks undermining democracy, likening it to a setback for the world’s third-largest democracy. Prabowo, who consolidated power after winning February’s presidential election, has not clarified whether he will formally propose the change. Ananda Teresia and Stanley Widianto, Reuters, December 13
Xi Jinping pledges full support for Hong Kong’s John Lee to reform economy. Chinese President Xi Jinping commended Hong Kong leader John Lee Ka-chiu for progress on national security legislation, governance, and economic challenges, pledging Beijing’s full backing for reforms to foster economic development. During a meeting in Beijing, Xi urged Lee to align Hong Kong’s strategies with national goals, including the Belt and Road Initiative. Lee highlighted a HK$100 billion budget deficit, outlining plans to balance it within five years while boosting business opportunities and public welfare. Wila Wu, Kahon Chan, and Natalie Wong, South China Morning Post, December 13
Vietnam treasures traditional ties with Poland: official. National Assembly official Le Thi Nga emphasized Vietnam’s commitment to strengthening ties with Poland during talks with Polish Secretary of State Władysław Teofil Bartoszewski in Hanoi. Nga highlighted ongoing economic and diplomatic cooperation, urging Poland’s support for ratifying the EU–Vietnam Investment Protection Agreement and lifting seafood trade restrictions. Bartoszewski expressed interest in expanding collaboration, including establishing a direct air route. Vietnam News, December 13
The State Administration Council and the Restyling of Myanmar's Economy. Since the 2021 military coup, Myanmar's State Administration Council (SAC) has shifted from market-driven policies to administrative controls, impacting businesses differently. The SAC's policies include enforcing multiple foreign exchange rates and mandating commodity sales at set prices, leading to market distortions and reduced availability of goods at official rates. Public resistance, such as boycotts of military-linked products, has further influenced business outcomes. Jared Bissinger, FULCRUM, December 13
Thailand and the Chinese import surge: possible policy responses. Since February 2024, China's share of Thailand's total imports has increased significantly, peaking at 37.4% in June 2024. This surge has impacted various sectors, including plastic and rubber products, pulp and paper, metallic products, and automotives. The Thai government has extended the 7% value-added tax to low-value imports and intensified enforcement on tax compliance and product standards. However, imposing higher tariffs or import bans may be ineffective due to potential stockpiling and possible Chinese retaliation. Archanun Kohpaiboon and Prasert Vijithnopparat, FULCRUM, December 13
Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict Over Taiwan. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted a war game simulating a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan, revealing that nuclear deterrence could fail, leading to limited nuclear weapon use. The simulation showed that both nations might resort to nuclear strikes to gain tactical advantages or coerce the other side, escalating the conflict uncontrollably. There is an urgent need for robust communication channels and crisis management mechanisms between the U.S. and China to prevent nuclear escalation in potential conflicts. Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham, CSIS, December 13
Thinking outside the toolbox. Innovative approaches are increasingly necessary to address the complexity of global challenges in today’s fast-changing geopolitical environment. Traditional methods often lack the flexibility required to navigate modern issues, emphasizing the need for strategies that move beyond conventional frameworks. A more interdisciplinary approach, integrating varied perspectives, can lead to the development of solutions that are both creative and practical. Emphasizing critical thinking, adaptability, and collaboration enables policymakers to better manage uncertainties. Daniel F. Runde, Rafael Romeuand Austin Hardman, CSIS, December 13
A Nation Has Been Tested: The Aftermath of Failed Military Coup in South Korea. On December 3, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law, shocking the nation and the international community. The National Assembly swiftly overturned the decree, but the event triggered widespread protests and calls for Yoon’s resignation. Student groups and political parties have intensified demands for impeachment or resignation, while an investigation into the coup attempt continues. The crisis has undermined public trust, destabilized South Korea’s economy, and complicated its international alliances, particularly with the United States. Mohammed Unais AV, The Geopolitics, December 13
PRC Pushes Digital Doppelgänger to Support Low-Altitude Economy. China is advancing its “3D Real-Scene China” project, a digital model of the nation using real-time geographic and IoT data to support a growing low-altitude economy. Expected to exceed $140 billion by 2026, this sector focuses on activities in airspace under 1,000 meters. By 2035, 80% of administrative decisions are projected to depend on this system, enhancing transport, agriculture, and production while expanding state surveillance capabilities. Ho C., The Jamestown Foundation, December 13
The Philippines’ Stakes in South Korea’s Political Chaos. The Philippines' defense modernization heavily relies on South Korea, a key supplier of naval assets and a strategic partner. Since 2012, South Korea has provided advanced warships and continues to support Manila’s military upgrades. However, South Korea’s political instability following President Yoon Suk-yeol’s martial law declaration threatens this relationship. Economic and defense industry challenges could disrupt exports and collaborations. Additionally, a potential power shift in South Korea could lead to policy reversals, reducing support for the Philippines in the South China Sea. Nguyen Thanh Long, The Diplomat, December 14
Australia-Japan defense cooperation must stand on its own. Australia and Japan have significantly advanced their defense partnership, marked by deeper collaboration through joint training, intelligence sharing, and defense technology. Current initiatives nurture their growing military integration, complementing U.S.-aligned trilateral goals. However, the two nations increasingly recognize the need to shape the regional security environment independently of Washington, emphasizing bilateral capabilities. Proposals for enhanced interoperability, such as Japan’s expanded training in Australia or joint maritime operations, aim to solidify their ability to deliver tangible defense outcomes while supporting broader collective deterrence efforts. Tom Corben, The Diplomat, December 13
Myanmar Civil War Casts Shadow Over China’s CMEC Corridor. China’s Belt and Road Initiative faces challenges in Myanmar due to the ongoing civil war, which jeopardizes the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). The corridor, crucial for connecting China’s Yunnan Province to the Indian Ocean, includes key infrastructure like the Kyaukpyu deep-water port and pipelines bypassing the Malacca Strait. Conflict in Myanmar risks derailing the project’s strategic goals, such as diversifying energy routes and enhancing China’s geopolitical influence. Beijing faces significant hurdles in maintaining the corridor amid escalating instability. Antonio Graceffo, Geopolitical Monitor, December 13
Export control breach reveals China’s continuing struggle to produce high-end semiconductors. The discovery of a Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) chip inside Huawei’s Ascend 910B AI processor highlights ongoing challenges for China in advancing its semiconductor capabilities under U.S. export controls. While Chinese chipmaker SMIC achieved some success with 7nm technology, it struggles with production quality and scalability due to limited access to advanced EUV lithography equipment. Recent U.S. restrictions aim to close loopholes in export controls, further hampering China’s technological ambitions. Wendy Chang, MERICS, December 13