Asia Daily: December 12, 2024
South Korean President Yoon vows to 'fight to the end,' defying impeachment threat. President Yoon Suk Yeol declared his resolve to combat efforts to impeach him, following controversy over a brief martial law order issued on December 3. Opposition parties submitted a new impeachment bill after accusing him of undermining democracy and mishandling claims of North Korean hacking of the election commission. Yoon defended his actions, alleging an opposition conspiracy but citing no evidence. If impeached, the Constitutional Court will decide his fate. Hyonhin Shee and Ju-min Park, Reuters, December 12
Emmanuel Macron plans China visit amid talk of Beijing helping end Ukraine war. French President Emmanuel Macron is preparing to visit China in the new year as Beijing faces calls to leverage its influence over Russia to help end the Ukraine war. Macron’s adviser, Emmanuel Bonne, recently traveled to Beijing to plan the trip. Talks have centered on China’s trade ties with Russia and concerns over military aid allegations. EU leaders remain skeptical of Beijing’s neutrality but continue seeking cooperation on peace initiatives. Macron’s diplomatic efforts come as he faces political challenges at home. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, December 12
Extra budget bill passed after coalition, DPP reach agreement. Japan’s Lower House approved a supplementary budget bill on December 12 following a deal between the ruling coalition and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). Backed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Komeito, the DPP, and Nippon Ishin, the bill is expected to pass in the Upper House. The agreement includes raising the minimum taxable income level from 1.03 million yen to 1.78 million yen by 2025 and removing a gasoline tax surcharge during emergencies. The LDP also adopted a proposal to allocate 100 billion yen for Noto Peninsula disaster recovery. Tsuneo Sasai and Nozomi Matsui, The Asahi Shimbun, December 12
Ruling party chief voices support for Yoon's impeachment. Han Dong-hoon, leader of South Korea’s ruling People Power Party (PPP), backed President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment over his martial law declaration. Han urged PPP lawmakers to vote based on conviction in an upcoming impeachment motion filed by the opposition Democratic Party. His remarks followed a failed impeachment vote last week, which most PPP members boycotted. Han criticized Yoon for refusing to resign, accusing him of breaking promises made in a prior address. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, December 12
India-UK free trade pact talks to resume by Jan-end, Indian government source says. India and the United Kingdom will restart free trade agreement discussions by the end of January, following delays attributed to prior political changes in Britain and the upcoming Indian elections. Key issues include high import duties on British whisky and India's push for more visas for students and businesses. Bilateral trade between the two nations reached $19.27 billion from January to October, with Indian exports accounting for $12.18 billion. Nikunj Ohri and Manoj Kumar, Reuters, December 12
Peace talks with communist rebels likely after May polls. Presidential Adviser Carlito Galvez Jr. announced that key components of the peace agreement with the CPP-NPA-NDF could be ready after the May midterm elections. Speaking at a media forum, Galvez expressed optimism that a comprehensive peace pact could be finalized during President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s term. Talks are being held in Norway but may relocate to the Philippines for practical reasons. A joint communique signed last year emphasized commitments to peace and national unity. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, December 12
China still ‘open’ to trade engagement with Trump despite tariff threats. China’s Ministry of Commerce reaffirmed its willingness to engage with the incoming Trump administration on trade, emphasizing dialogue and coordination while opposing unilateral tariffs. Spokesman He Yadong stressed the need to manage differences to sustain long-term bilateral ties. President Xi Jinping warned against tariff wars, stating they harm both nations. This comes as Trump plans steep tariffs on Chinese goods and Washington pushes legislation targeting Chinese firms Huawei and ZTE. Sylvia Ma, South China Morning Post, December 12
Trump invites China's Xi to inauguration, experts call it political theater. President-elect Donald Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping and other world leaders to his January 20 inauguration, though experts believe Xi is unlikely to attend. Trump’s spokesperson described the move as fostering dialogue with allies and rivals alike. Analysts dismissed the gesture as symbolic, noting no Chinese leader has attended a U.S. inauguration. Trump’s administration has signaled a tough stance on China, with plans for tariffs and criticism of Beijing’s policies on fentanyl and trade. Steve Holland and David Brunnstrom, Reuters, December 12
U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan Daniel Rosenblum resigns. Daniel Rosenblum, U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan since November 2022, has announced his resignation effective January 20, 2025. During his tenure, Rosenblum strengthened U.S.-Kazakhstan relations, achieving significant progress in trade, investment, education, and security cooperation. Deputy Chief of Mission Deborah Robinson will serve as Chargé d’Affaires until a new ambassador is appointed. Rosenblum's resignation coincides with similar announcements from U.S. ambassadors to South Korea and Azerbaijan. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, December 12
Bicam panel OKs 2025 budget bill. The Senate and the House approved the reconciled 2025 national budget bill totaling P6.352 trillion, which supports President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s plans. Senate President Francis Escudero highlighted that the budget reflects the president’s mandate and vision, despite challenges in reconciling differences. The Office of the Vice President's budget remains at P733 million, while the Ayuda sa Kapos ang Kita Program was reduced from P39 billion to P26 billion. Soldiers’ daily subsistence allowances increased from P150 to P350. Reina C. Tolentino, Javier Joe Ismael, Bernadette E. Tamayo and Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, December 12
Prime minister criticised for House no-show. Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra faced backlash for skipping the opening of the new House of Representatives session on December 12. Opposition MP Nattacha Boonchaiinsawat criticized her absence, seeking answers on the blackchin tilapia fish issue. Instead, the premier delivered a televised address on her administration’s performance, citing her belief that attending the session was inappropriate. Agriculture Minister Narumon Pinyosinwat was assigned to attend, but neither she nor her deputy appeared, fueling opposition frustration. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, December 12
Chinese firm to invest $600 million in pomelo production in Laos. Oudomxay Jiangge Cement Company will invest $600 million in pomelo cultivation and processing in Laos to boost exports and rural incomes. A feasibility study will begin in Oudomxay Province, with plans to use 10,000 hectares of land to produce 200,000 tonnes annually for domestic and global markets. Chairman Lin Peliang highlighted the project's potential to reduce poverty and create jobs, continuing the firm’s seven-year investment in Laos. Phonethida Sitthixay, The Laotian Times, December 12
PNG reveals defense deal with U.S. worth $864 million. Papua New Guinea has announced a defense agreement with the United States, including $864 million for military infrastructure, training, and equipment over the next decade. The deal, signed in May 2023, grants U.S. military access to key PNG ports and airports. Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko described the agreement as vital for strengthening security in the Pacific region. The U.S. investment aims to bolster PNG’s defense capabilities amid rising regional tensions.PINA, December 12
Uzbekistan strengthens criminal penalties for organizing mass disturbances. On December 11, Uzbekistan's parliament amended Article 244 of the Criminal Code to enhance penalties for organizing or financing mass disturbances. Deputy Prosecutor General Svetlana Artikova emphasized the necessity of these changes to protect public safety. The amendments introduce specific provisions criminalizing such preparatory actions and the financing of mass riots. The amendments have been approved by key government bodies, including the Supreme Court and the State Security Service. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, December 12
World Bank warns of worsening economic crisis for junta-ruled Myanmar. The World Bank has revised Myanmar's economic forecast, projecting a 1% contraction for the fiscal year ending March 2025, a significant downgrade from the previous 1% growth estimate. This downturn is attributed to severe flooding from Typhoon Yagi, ongoing armed conflicts, and widespread shortages affecting agriculture, manufacturing, and services. Over half of Myanmar's townships are experiencing active conflict, disrupting supply chains and border trade. The Irrawaddy, December 12
Tajikistan's Rogun Dam is a white elephant in the making, report says. A report by Rivers Without Boundaries warns that completing Tajikistan's Rogun Dam to its planned 335-meter height would be economically disastrous and environmentally harmful. The dam faces escalating costs now estimated at $6.4 billion. The report suggests that combining renewable energy sources with a smaller dam could meet Tajikistan's energy needs more effectively and mitigate climate risks, noting significant advancements in renewable technologies and increased climate change risks since the original data was collected. Eurasianet, December 12
ASEAN’s 2025 Chair: Navigating Tricky (Economic) Shoals. Malaysia will assume the ASEAN chairmanship in 2025, a pivotal year marking the conclusion of the ASEAN Community Vision 2025 and the adoption of the ASEAN Community Vision 2045. Amidst escalating geopolitical tensions, Malaysia plans to focus on inclusivity and sustainability, emphasizing 15 Priority Economic Deliverables to enhance regional economic integration and promote sustainable growth. Key objectives include concluding upgrades to the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement, the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement, and finalizing the Digital Economy Framework Agreement. Kristina Fong Siew Leng, FULCRUM, December 12
Donald Trump: White knight for TikTok? TikTok faces a potential nationwide ban in the U.S. unless it divests from ByteDance by January 2025, a decision the platform is challenging in the Supreme Court. President-elect Donald Trump, previously critical of TikTok, now suggests he may support its continued U.S. operations, citing its economic benefits and popularity with Gen Z voters. While some advisors advocate for a ban, financial ties and political considerations may influence Trump’s stance. TikTok’s fate could set a global precedent for foreign-owned tech amid rising geopolitical tensions. Chen Gang, ThinkChina, December 12
How China could emerge as an unexpected beneficiary from Assad's downfall in Syria. The overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could bolster China’s regional influence by diminishing Iran’s and Russia’s sway in Syria. Analysts suggest Beijing could leverage this shift to strengthen ties with Arab states and play a mediating role in regional conflicts. While Assad’s fall highlights the limits of China’s diplomatic influence, opportunities exist for Beijing to advance its Middle East strategy, especially as Arab nations reassess their alliances. Ali Bilgic, The Diplomat, December 12
The curious case of China’s ‘UN socialites.’ A growing trend of Chinese influencers, dubbed “UN socialites,” showcases glamorous personas posing at the United Nations, sparking online intrigue and backlash. These influencers, often linked to multi-channel networks, leverage paid services to create content featuring staged speeches, awards, and appearances at UN events. Reports reveal costs for such activities range from US$250 to rent meeting rooms to tens of thousands for organized “training” programs. Critics highlight this as a monetization of perceived elitism and an exploitation of information asymmetry. ThinkChina, December 12
The Importance of the EU-Philippines Trade Deal In March 2024, the European Union and the Philippines agreed to resume negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA), revitalizing discussions stalled since 2017 during President Rodrigo Duterte's tenure. The renewed talks reflect a positive shift under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., elected in 2022, who aims to strengthen diplomatic and economic relations. The EU views the Philippines as a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific, aligning with its strategy to diversify trade networks and reduce political and economic risks. Sophia Ordoña and Jonas Nitschke, The Diplomat, December 13
Yoon Suk Yeol can’t take “yes” for an answer. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol faces likely impeachment after his party leader, Han Dong-hoon, urged lawmakers to vote on their “conviction and conscience.” Han stated impeachment is the only way to defend democracy following Yoon’s controversial martial law declaration on December 3. If eight members of Yoon’s party join the opposition, he will be suspended pending a Constitutional Court review. Experts expect Yoon to challenge the charges but anticipate his removal. The by-election timing depends on the court's ruling. Matthew Kendrick, GZERO, December 12
Middle Corridor Looks to Insulate Global Supply Chains from Geopolitical Risk. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), known as the Middle Corridor, offers a resilient alternative for global trade amid rising geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. Extending from China to Europe through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus, this route traverses regions with relatively low geopolitical risk, providing businesses with a reliable transit solution. The Middle Corridor's strategic significance has attracted interest from global powers, including the United States and the European Union, aligning with their long-term strategies to diversify trade routes and reduce dependency on traditional pathways. Emil Avdaliani, Geopolitical Monitor, December 12
The trouble with Australia’s Asian allies. Political upheaval in Japan and South Korea raises concerns about their reliability as Australia’s strategic partners. In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s weakened authority after October’s election loss threatens legislative gridlock, jeopardizing projects like Australia’s planned AU$10 billion frigate procurement involving Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. In South Korea, President Yoon Suk-yeol’s brief martial law declaration has damaged international perceptions, complicating defense cooperation. Both nations’ instability undermines efforts to strengthen regional alliances with the U.S. to counter China’s influence. Keiran Thompson, The Interpreter, December 12
Unpacking China’s “Four Red Lines” and Its Warning to Trump. Following a final meeting with President Joe Biden in November, Chinese leader Xi Jinping outlined “four red lines” for U.S.-China relations: Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China’s political system, and its right to development. The message, aimed at incoming President Donald Trump, warns against actions like bolstering Taiwan’s international standing, challenging China’s governance model, and imposing technology export controls or tariffs. While Beijing knows these lines may be crossed, it aims to signal consequences and frame the U.S. as responsible for future tensions. David Sacks, Council on Foreign Relations, December 12
Behind the Curtain: An Update on Hainan’s Maritime Militia. China’s maritime militia, once obscure, has gained global attention due to its role in South China Sea confrontations. Updated research by AMTI expands the list of Hainan-based militia vessels from 69 in 2021 to 152, with 105 identified with high confidence. These state-supported vessels, mostly registered to Sansha City, are heavily involved in operations alongside the China Coast Guard and Navy. Others from Tanmen, Sanya, and Danzhou represent a mix of professional and part-time civilian fleets subsidized under government programs. CSIS, December 12