Asia Daily: December 11, 2024
South Korea police try to raid Yoon's office over martial law. South Korean police attempted to search President Yoon Suk Yeol's office as part of an investigation into the declaration of martial law on December 3, which sparked a constitutional crisis. The raid faced resistance, with investigators unable to enter the main building. Former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun and national police chief Cho Ji-ho have been arrested for alleged insurrection, while Yoon is being investigated on similar charges and banned from leaving the country. Hyunsu Yim and Jack Kim, Reuters, December 11
Former Taiwan leader Ma Ying-jeou plans third visit to mainland China in 2 years. Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan's former president, will visit mainland China from December 18 for nine days, marking his third trip in two years. The visit focuses on promoting youth exchanges amid heightened cross-strait tensions. Ma will lead a Taiwanese youth delegation to Harbin and Chengdu, participating in events like the cross-strait youth ice and snow festival. Beijing welcomed the trip, emphasizing its aim to foster cooperation. Ma, a senior Kuomintang figure, has advocated for peaceful cross-strait relations through such exchanges. Vanessa Cai, South China Morning Post, December 11
China says it takes 'necessary measures' to defend sovereignty over Taiwan. China has vowed to take "necessary measures" to protect its sovereignty, criticizing Taiwan for "separatist" activities as Taiwan reported detecting 53 Chinese military aircraft and 11 naval vessels near the island within 24 hours. Beijing has not confirmed the operations, but Taiwan believes the surge in military activity aims to send a message to U.S. allies and the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump. Ryan Woo, Ben Blanchard, and Yimou Lee, Reuters, December 11
Japan, Finland up defense ties amid Russian border tensions. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo have agreed to enhance security cooperation following Finland's NATO membership. The leaders announced plans to negotiate an agreement for transferring defense equipment and technologies and discussed broader collaboration in science and technology, including supercomputing and advancements in 5G and 6G networks. Finland’s concerns over regional security, heightened by its 1,300-kilometer border with Russia and the ongoing Ukraine conflict, prompted its NATO accession last year. The Asahi Shimbun, December 11
Ex-DPM Wissanu says skip charter referendum. Former Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, a prominent legal expert, recommends amending Thailand's constitution section by section to avoid the complexities and delays associated with conducting multiple referendums. He notes that the Constitutional Court mandates at least three referendums for comprehensive amendments, a process unlikely to be completed within the current House term of less than three years. Wissanu suggests focusing on urgent sections that do not require a referendum, thereby facilitating timely and necessary reforms. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, December 11
Deputy FM arrives in Somaliland to attend presidential inauguration. Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Francois Wu arrived in Somaliland to represent Taiwan at the inauguration of President-elect Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi. Wu, serving as President Lai Ching-te's special envoy, is scheduled to attend the ceremony and meet outgoing President Muse Bihi Abdi. Abdullahi won 64% of the vote in the November 13 election, becoming Somaliland's sixth president since declaring independence in 1991. Taipei Times, December 12
Police chiefs met Yoon hours before martial law declaration. South Korea's national police commissioner Cho Ji-ho and Seoul police chief Kim Bong-sik met with President Yoon Suk Yeol three hours before the declaration of martial law, a police investigation revealed. During the meeting, held at a presidential safe house, they received a document outlining key sites requiring control, including the National Assembly. Former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun also attended. Both Cho and Kim are under investigation for allegedly deploying police to block lawmakers from reversing the martial law order. Woo Jae-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, December 11
Kazakhstan opens pavilion in Uzbek-Afghan border trade center Kazakhstan's Ministry of Trade and Integration has inaugurated a trade pavilion at the Termez International Trade Center in Termez, Uzbekistan, near the Afghan border. This pavilion aims to promote Kazakh products in Uzbek and Afghan markets. The center, opened on August 29, features retail spaces, hotels, and a medical center, facilitating trade between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Afghan citizens can trade at the center visa-free for up to 15 days. Kyrgyzstan also established a pavilion at the center in November. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, December 11
Senate president moots idea of Asian parliamentary forum during Qatar visit. Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen proposed creating an Asian Parliamentary Forum to tackle regional and global issues during a meeting with Qatar Shura Council Speaker Hassan bin Abdullah Al Ghanim in Doha. Al Ghanim highlighted Qatar’s limited parliamentary ties with ASEAN and expressed interest in strengthening them through a summit. Hun Sen suggested bilateral agreements on investment and trade protection and encouraged Qatari investment in Cambodia. Differences in economics, culture, and religion have limited relations between ASEAN and the Middle East. Niem Chheng, The Phnom Penh Post, December 11
EU to sanction China entities for role in supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. The European Union has provisionally agreed to sanction six Chinese and Hong Kong-based companies and one Chinese individual for aiding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions include asset freezes and a visa ban and mark the first direct penalties against Chinese entities for involvement in the conflict. These measures, part of the EU's fifteenth sanctions package, target efforts to circumvent restrictions and disrupt military supplies to Russia. Beijing denies military support for Russia, asserting neutrality and calling for peace negotiations. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, December 11
U.S. defense chief visits Japan amid tensions in South Korea. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Defense Minister Gen Nakatani in Tokyo on December 10 to reaffirm the U.S.-Japan alliance and discuss regional security amid South Korea's political turmoil following its martial law declaration. Austin emphasized the alliance's role as a cornerstone of regional stability and highlighted the importance of trilateral cooperation with South Korea. Nobuhiko Tajima, The Asahi Shimbun, December 11
Supporters of Bangladesh Nationalist Party hold protest march as tensions continue with India. Thousands of Bangladesh Nationalist Party supporters marched from Dhaka to the eastern border with India to protest the alleged desecration of Bangladeshi flags and an attack on a diplomatic mission in India. The demonstration included rallies denouncing "Indian aggression" and culminated at the Akhaura border point. Tensions have escalated since the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, with Bangladesh accusing Indian Hindus of attacks on its officials. India has pledged action but restricted visas for Bangladeshis amid security concerns, further straining relations. Julhas Alam, AP News, December 11
Uzbek deputy proposes introducing visa regime with Russia. Alisher Qodirov, leader of Uzbekistan's Milli Tiklanish (National Revival) party, has proposed implementing a visa regime with Russia to address potential migration challenges. This follows Russian politician Leonid Slutsky's "Migrant Code," which mandates stricter requirements for migrant workers. Qodirov urged Central Asian countries to tighten entry and exit controls and educate citizens about their rights abroad to prevent exploitation and uphold national values. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, December 11
Japan asks China to bolster security on Nanjing massacre anniversary. Japan has requested enhanced security measures from China to protect Japanese nationals during the 87th anniversary of the 1937 Nanjing massacre. The request follows recent violent incidents involving Japanese citizens in Suzhou and Shenzhen, including a stabbing in June and a fatal attack in September. Japanese schools in China plan to close or move classes online on the anniversary day. The Nanjing massacre remains a contentious historical issue, with China claiming over 300,000 deaths, while Japanese historians estimate significantly lower figures.Kyodo News, December 11
Tonga's PM nominations open following resignation. Nominations for Tonga's next prime minister have officially opened after the resignation of Prime Minister Siaosi Sovaleni. Parliament has begun the process to select his successor, with candidates required to be members of parliament. The resignation follows political challenges and discussions within the government. A new prime minister is expected to be announced soon, reflecting ongoing efforts to stabilize Tonga's political landscape. PINA, December 11
Philippines' VP Sara Duterte a no-show for questioning over Marcos threat. Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte declined to appear for questioning over alleged threats to assassinate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., his wife, and the House speaker. The remarks, made during a November press conference, are now under investigation, with Duterte denying any actionable threats. Relations between Duterte and Marcos have deteriorated, with Duterte facing impeachment complaints for alleged graft and misconduct, which she denies. Duterte expressed distrust in the investigation and stated she anticipates further legal challenges and potential removal from office. Karen Lema and Eloisa Lopez, Reuters, December 11
Japan weighs extra taxes for defense spending as early as April 2026. The Japanese government is planning to introduce additional taxes by April 2026 to fund a significant increase in defense spending, aiming to double the defense budget to 2 percent of GDP by fiscal 2027. Proposed measures include staged corporate and tobacco tax hikes starting in 2026 and a new income-linked tax by January 2027. The government seeks to raise annual tax revenue by 1 trillion yen to meet its defense goals while also addressing inflation by raising the tax-free income threshold. Kyodo News, December 11
Trump's Return to the White House: Transforming Global Governance and Shaping New Opportunities. A second term for Donald Trump raises questions about the continuity of U.S. strategies in the Indo-Pacific, particularly concerning alliances like AUKUS and the Quad. The Trump administration's 2017 National Security Strategy labeled China as a 'revisionist power,' aiming to expel the U.S. from the Indo-Pacific. Subsequent policies, including the 2022 National Security Strategy, intensified strategic competition with China. The Biden administration further solidified alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines, and re-engaged with ASEAN, focusing on mechanisms like the Quad and AUKUS to improve operational readiness and projection capabilities. The Quad, established in 2004, expanded cooperation among Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S. in areas such as cybersecurity and economic collaboration. AUKUS, formed in 2021 between the U.S., the U.K., and Australia, facilitates close military and industrial cooperation, including Australia's acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. The future of these alliances under a new Trump administration remains uncertain, given the unpredictability of his previous term's Asia policy. Marianne Peron-Doise, Korea on Point, December 11
Policy Brief: Clean Energy Pragmatism as a Spark for US-South Korea Relations. The United States and South Korea, both committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, have the opportunity to strengthen their alliance through clean energy collaboration. By focusing on pragmatic approaches, such as joint investments in renewable energy technologies and aligning regulatory frameworks, both nations can enhance energy security, create economic opportunities, and set a global example in combating climate change. This partnership can also address supply chain vulnerabilities and promote technological innovation, benefiting both economies and contributing to global sustainability efforts. Elan Sykes, Korea Economic Institute of America, December 11
Implications of South Korea’s Failed Impeachment Vote. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law on December 3 and its swift repeal by the National Assembly have led to mass protests, cabinet resignations, and a failed impeachment vote, exposing deep divisions in the ruling People Power Party (PPP). The fallout includes investigations into high-ranking officials and a bill to appoint a special counsel to probe treason charges against Yoon, who is now subject to a travel ban. Domestically, political instability hampers governance, while opposition leader Lee Jae-myung faces legal battles that could impact potential snap elections. Internationally, the turmoil strains South Korea’s alliances, delaying U.S.-ROK nuclear deterrence talks and raising concerns in Japan about bilateral relations. As pressure mounts for Yoon’s resignation, his administration faces challenges to its legitimacy and policy agenda, with future governance and stability hanging in the balance. Kaitlyn King and Natalia Slavney, Stimson Center, December 11
How the Kim Regime Managed to Survive in North Korea (So Far). North Korea's economy has suffered due to international sanctions and self-imposed isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a drastic reduction in exports and foreign currency reserves. In response, the Kim regime has increased labor extraction and repression, compelling citizens to work in state-assigned jobs with minimal compensation and imposing heavy taxes on private market activities. This has further distorted the economy, exacerbating public dissatisfaction and deepening economic hardships. Despite these measures, the regime's survival strategy remains precarious, as it relies on unsustainable practices that undermine long-term stability. Chan Young Bang, The Diplomat, December 11
ASEAN’s 2025 Chair: Navigating Tricky (Economic) Shoals. Malaysia is set to assume the ASEAN chairmanship in 2025, a pivotal year marking the conclusion of the ASEAN Community Vision 2025 and the adoption of the ASEAN Community Vision 2045. Amidst escalating geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, Malaysia plans to focus on inclusivity and sustainability. Key objectives include concluding upgrades to the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement and the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement, as well as finalizing the Digital Economy Framework Agreement. Malaysia's leadership in green sukuk financing positions it to advance regional climate finance initiatives effectively. However, the nation must also address emerging challenges such as global protectionist measures impacting Southeast Asian economies, necessitating swift and effective risk mitigation strategies. Kristina Fong Siew Leng, Fulcrum, December 12