China
China’s military firms struggle as corruption purge bites, report says. Revenues at China’s major arms makers fell in 2024 as corruption probes delayed or cancelled contracts, a SIPRI study said. China’s top firms’ sales dropped 10 percent while global arms revenues rose 5.9 percent to a record $679 billion. AVIC, Norinco and CASC posted declines, with Norinco down 31 percent. The crackdown reached the Rocket Force and saw eight generals expelled, including He Weidong. Greg Torode, Reuters, November 30
China calls on UK to uphold ‘one-China’ principle. Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Britain to uphold the one China principle during talks in Beijing with UK national security adviser Jonathan Powell amid a worsening dispute with Tokyo over Taiwan. A Chinese readout said they also discussed Ukraine and would maintain strategic communication and coordination. Reuters, November 28
Japan
Extra budget to push defense spending beyond 2% of GDP. Japan approved an 18.3 trillion yen supplementary budget for fiscal 2025, including 1.1 trillion yen in additional defense outlays that lift annual military spending above 2% of GDP. The plan issues 11.6 trillion yen in mainly short term bonds despite higher long term rates. Funds cover aircraft ships and missiles, plus 200 billion yen for a space strategy fund and 120 billion for shipbuilding. The Asahi Shimbun, November 29
Poll: Japanese affinity toward U.S. falls after Trump tariffs. Japanese public sentiment toward the United States fell sharply after President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Japanese imports, a Cabinet Office survey showed. 70.8% now rate relations as good or quite good, down 14.7 points year on year and the second lowest since 1998. Affinity toward the United States dropped to 77.0%. The mail survey gathered 1,666 valid responses. Azusa Kato, The Asahi Shimbun, November 29
Uncertainty looms over Lower House seat reduction. Plans to cut seats in Japan’s Lower House face delays as the ruling LDP and coalition partner Japan Innovation Party struggle to draft a bill guaranteeing a 10% reduction within a year. JIP threatens to leave the coalition without enactment during the current session ending Dec. 17. LDP resistance and a CDP-chaired committee complicate passage despite aims to submit legislation this week. The Japan Times, December 1
South Korea
Lee to deliver special address on 1st anniv. of martial law declaration. President Lee Jae Myung will give a national address Wednesday to mark one year since former President Yoon Suk Yeol announced martial law. The speech will credit citizens for restoring order and will be followed by a press conference with foreign media. Lee will also host a luncheon with leaders of the three branches. The event uses the theme A Renewed Democracy One Year On. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, November 30
Lee’s approval rating inches down to 54.8%: poll. President Lee Jae Myung’s approval slipped 1.1 points to 54.8% last week while disapproval edged up to 40.7%. Pollster Realmeter linked the dip to a 15-year prison demand for ex prime minister Han Duck-soo and an arrest motion for PPP lawmaker Choo Kyung-ho, plus economic worries. The survey polled 2,538 adults, margin ±1.9%. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, December 1
Rival parties resume talks to find compromise on budget, corruption probe. Ruling and opposition negotiators resumed talks to narrow differences over the 2026 budget and a probe into prosecutors’ decision not to appeal a Seongnam real estate case. Floor leaders Kim Byung-kee (DP) and Song Eon-seog (PPP) met without agreement. Agenda items include policy funds, local gift certificates, presidential office’s special expenses, education taxes, and corporate tax rates, with the deadline two days away. Woo Jae-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, November 30
North Korea
North Korea’s Kim stresses Air Force’s nuclear war deterrence on its 80th anniversary. Kim Jong Un marked the Air Force’s 80th anniversary with his daughter, praising its role in exercising nuclear war deterrence and promising new strategic assets. State media showed unmanned aircraft missile launchers and an airborne early warning plane as he watched an air show. Kim ordered the force to repulse espionage and provocations. Ukraine intelligence said North Korea is mass producing FPV and attack drones. Ju-Min Park, Reuters, November 29
N. Korea may strengthen hostile stance against S. Korea next year: unification minister. North Korea may intensify hostility toward South Korea next year, Unification Minister Chung Dong-young told lawmakers, urging efforts to restart dialogue despite Pyongyang redefining ties as hostile in 2023. He said resuming U.S.-North Korea talks is decisive and the next five months before planned U.S.-China summitry are critical, adding Seoul should help create conditions for engagement. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, November 28
Thailand
Two panels to draft charter: House. Thailand’s House committee proposed creating a 35 member Constitution Drafting Committee and a 35 member Public Participation Committee to complete a new charter within 360 days while keeping Chapter 2 on the monarchy intact. The report goes to a Dec. 10–11 special session for second reading. Eligibility widens, but civil servants and banned politicians are excluded, with two year post service political bans. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, November 29
Crisis fuels doubts over charter amendment push. Pheu Thai acknowledged uncertainty over the charter amendment’s passage as southern flooding shifted public attention and senators’ positions remain unpredictable. Deputy leader Chusak Sirinil said the committee finished its work and scheduled debate for Dec. 10 and 11. The panel backed a parliamentary selection model for drafters using a 20 to 1 nomination formula, rejecting a directly elected drafting assembly. Bangkok Post, November 30
Myanmar
UN warns on voter surveillance ahead of Myanmar election. Geneva’s UN human rights office warned Myanmar’s junta is pressuring voters and could use electronic voting machines and AI surveillance to identify opponents. The machines do not allow blank or spoiled ballots. OHCHR reported forced training on the devices, orders for displaced people to return, and arrests over protest posters. The junta said voting will be free and fair ahead of the December election. Emma Farge, Reuters, November 28
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi aide freed in Myanmar junta pre-election amnesty. An aide to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was among hundreds freed in a pre election amnesty ahead of phased elections starting Dec. 28. The junta said 3,085 people prosecuted under post coup speech laws would have sentences dropped, though many have other convictions. Reporters outside Yangon’s Insein Prison saw 200 released. Rights groups and a UN expert said the vote masks continued military rule. The Irrawaddy, November 28
Cambodia
Cambodia urges UN rights envoy to address border conflict. Cambodia called on UN Special Rapporteur Vitit Muntarbhorn to address humanitarian and rights concerns from fighting along the Thai border. Its mission in Geneva said his Nov. 20 statement came after sustained appeals and did not address specific evidence submitted. The mission cited mandate standards and asked for timely engagement and detailed reporting on risks to civilians. Khmer Times, November 30
Philippines
Philippine’s detained ex-leader Duterte loses appeal. ICC appeals judges ruled former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte must remain detained, rejecting a defense bid for provisional release on age and health grounds. Duterte, 80, was arrested in March over killings in his war on drugs and awaits possible trial in The Hague. His grandson protested the ruling, while victims’ families in Manila welcomed it as the process moves forward. Stephanie Van Den Berg, Marta Fiorin, Charlotte Van Campenhout and Karen Lema, Reuters, November 28
With interim release junked, ICC turns attention to Duterte’s health. After the Appeals Chamber upheld the denial of interim release, the International Criminal Court will assess Rodrigo Duterte’s fitness to stand trial for crimes against humanity. A three expert panel reports by Dec. 5, with responses due Dec. 12, before a pre trial decision. Victims’ lawyers also press for warrants against alleged co perpetrators including Ronald dela Rosa. Franco Jose C. Baroña and Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, November 29
Marcos, Zelenskyy eye deeper PH-Ukraine ties. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said he spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to reaffirm warm relations and discuss cooperation in food security agriculture and digitalization. Marcos said the call also addressed ways to strengthen ASEAN–Ukraine engagement as the Philippines assumes the chair. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, November 28
Indonesia
Indonesia rejects U.S. ‘poison pill’ clauses in trade deal talks, FT reports. Indonesia is resisting U.S. efforts to include so called poison pill clauses in a reciprocal tariff deal, according to the Financial Times, challenging Washington’s bid to curb China’s influence in Southeast Asia. The clauses would constrain Jakarta’s ties with Beijing under U.S. trade terms, the report said. Negotiations continue as both sides seek an agreement on lowering tariffs. No timeline was provided. Rajveer Singh Pardesi, Reuters, November 28
Indonesia, India deepen defense ties in New Delhi ministerial talks. Indonesia’s Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin met India’s Rajnath Singh in New Delhi for the third defense ministers’ dialogue. They agreed to create a Joint Defense Industrial Cooperation Committee for technology transfer and joint R&D, and to expand exercises and training exchanges. They also backed cooperation in the Indo Pacific aligned with AOIP and IPOI. ANTARA News, November 28
Indonesia yet to lodge application to Singapore’s FIT trade coalition. Indonesia has not submitted an application to join the Singapore backed Future of Investment and Trade Partnership despite signaling interest, Chief Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga Hartarto said in Jakarta. He said membership could proceed once a letter is sent. FIT launched in September with 14 founders and has since added Paraguay and Malaysia, while temporarily deferring new members as it implements initiatives. Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta Globe, December 1
Malaysia
Malaysia PM faces electoral setback as allies fall in Sabah state polls. Anwar Ibrahim’s allies suffered a heavy defeat in Sabah’s state election, winning just one of 20 seats contested, in a setback ahead of regional polls leading to the 2028 national vote. Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, aligned with his coalition, retained control. Analysts cited demands for greater autonomy and basic infrastructure. Anwar congratulated GRS and said Sabah voters were “demanding real change.” Danial Azhar, Reuters, November 30
Malaysia detains former senior aide to PM in bribery probe. Malaysia’s anti-graft agency detained Shamsul Iskandar Mohd Akin, a former senior political secretary to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, for further investigation into bribery allegations, after questioning in Kuala Lumpur. MACC chief Azam Baki said investigators will seek a court order to extend detention and aim to submit the case to prosecutors within a week. Businessman Albert Tei was also held pending inquiries. Danial Azhar and Ashley Tang, Reuters, November 28
Singapore
President Tharman to make first state visit to Mexico. Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam will make a state visit to Mexico from Nov. 30 to Dec. 3 to mark 50 years of ties. He will meet President Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico City head Clara Brugada and Senate President Laura Itzel Castillo Juarez. The program includes a welcome at the National Palace, a wreath at the Monument to the Heroic Cadets, a business forum and an exhibition. Daphne Yow, Channel News Asia, November 29
Taiwan
Taiwan’s plan to acquire drone ‘takeover’ technology sparks security debate. Taiwan plans to acquire Israeli takeover technology for a counter drone network to protect airports power plants and other critical infrastructure. A briefing by NCSIST specified decoding DJI OcuSync links, raising concerns about brand targeting and feasibility, which officials may drop. The defense ministry said the tender is civilian. Separate plans cover 635 counter drone systems and 48,750 drones over two years. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, November 29
Taiwan names US-educated official new vice defence minister as part of reform push. President Lai Ching-te appointed National Security Council adviser Hsu Szu-chien as a vice defence minister to drive military reforms alongside a proposed $40 billion supplementary budget. The Columbia-educated official has led delegations and maintains close ties with U.S. defence circles. Taiwan reported new Chinese joint combat readiness patrols as it modernises forces and holds preliminary talks on U.S. weapons purchases. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, November 28
Kazakhstan
Tensions between Kazakhstan and Ukraine rise after oil infrastructure attack. Escalating Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s Novorossiysk port damaged a Caspian Pipeline Consortium mooring device, suspending loading and closing some pipelines while security threats persist. Kazakhstan protested, calling it the third attack on a civilian facility and warning of harm to bilateral ties. Ukraine said actions target Russian aggression, not Kazakhstan, citing UN Charter Article 51 and acknowledging concerns over the pipeline infrastructure. The Times of Central Asia, November 30
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan launches Zero Bureaucracy program, announces Paperless Government system. Uzbekistan will launch the Elimination of Bureaucracy-2030 program on Jan. 1, 2026, aiming to become a zero-bureaucracy country by 2030. The Paperless Government plan will digitize 25 million documents, including 5 million in 2026, and raise e-services to 95% with 1,500 services by 2030. Next year 250 services, like vehicle registration and VAT refunds, will go digital, supported by AI systems and a project office. Gazeta, November 29
Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan included as Trump tightens U.S. immigration ban after D.C. shooting. President Donald Trump announced a post shooting immigration crackdown, ordering USCIS to reexamine green cards and visas for immigrants from 19 countries of concern including Turkmenistan. A June 4 proclamation already imposed partial travel restrictions on Turkmen nationals due to screening gaps and high overstay rates. Officials said the review follows a Washington attack that killed a National Guard member and wounded another. Stephen M. Bland, The Times of Central Asia, November 28
Turkmenistan passes law regulating cryptocurrency mining and exchanges. Turkmenistan approved a law legalising and regulating digital assets, including licensing for cryptocurrency exchanges and mining companies. State media said President Serdar Berdymukhamedov signed the measure, which takes effect January 1. A government spokesperson said the law will attract investment and promote digitalization. The statute regulates creation, storage, use and circulation of virtual assets and defines their legal and economic status. Marat Gurt and Felix Light, Reuters, November 28
Kyrgyzstan
Allies of Kyrgyzstan’s strongman president sweep snap parliamentary election. Allies of President Sadyr Japarov won nearly all seats in Kyrgyzstan’s snap parliamentary election, preliminary results showed, consolidating his control after sidelining parties and jailing opponents. Japarov touted clean voting and vowed transparent future polls. His rule has delivered rapid growth amid inflation and power shortages, aided by Russia redirected trade that has drawn Western sanctions on Kyrgyz firms and banks. Felix Light and Aigerim Turgunbaeva, Reuters, November 30
East Asia
Hong Kong’s Identity Quandary. Even as the Hang Seng surges and IPO rankings rebound, Hong Kong remains diminished, with China’s heavy hand eroding its role as an international entrepot. Media closures, pressure on rule of law, and a sharp drop in foreign judges accompany tighter political controls. Economic fortunes are tethered to China’s slower growth, leaving Hong Kong vulnerable as Sino American rivalry intensifies and its independent broker role recedes. Stephen S. Roach, Project Syndicate, November 27
Can Chinese Authoritarianism Stay Smart? China’s growth and innovation depend on combining party control with enough openness to keep firms productive and attract talent. Xi Jinping’s centralization and tech crackdowns raise risks of slower dynamism, yet targeted loosening and state support could sustain competitiveness. Outcomes range from overreach that stifles progress to calibrated management that preserves control while remaining at the technological frontier. External shocks could tilt the balance. Jennifer Lind, Foreign Policy, November 26
How China Unlocked a West African Mine to Reshape the Global Iron Ore Trade. Simandou made its commercial debut as Guinea shipped iron ore via the new 600 kilometer Trans Guinean Railway and Morebaya Port, a $20 billion build led largely by Chinese firms. The project targets up to 120 million tons a year, giving China a strategic alternative to Australian and Brazilian supply. Shared rail and port assets sit under CTG with a 15% Guinean stake. Luo Guoping, Bao Zhiming and Denise Jia, Sixth Tone, November 28
Trump-Xi and Strategic Recalibration. The Nov. 24 call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping signaled a tactical pause as both leaders sought to manage tensions while sustaining rivalry. Discussion centered on Taiwan trade and supply chains, with limited confidence building to reduce near term miscalculation. Short windows may open for middle powers to advance interests, though misreading signals could shrink policy room. Risks around crisis escalation remain. Khanh Vu Duc, The Diplomat, November 28
Southeast Asia
Competition among Thailand’s Three Largest Parties Deepens the Country’s Political Uncertainties. With Anutin Charnvirakul as prime minister, competition among People’s Party, Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai has intensified. PP backed Anutin via an MoA while pushing constitutional change and a referendum process. PP and Pheu Thai face legal and leadership risks, and Bhumjaithai holds a short term advantage. No party appears capable of winning a majority, making new coalitions likely. Termsak Chalermpalanupap, Fulcrum, November 28
Pax Americana Is Over: What Comes Next and How Will It Impact Southeast Asia? The U.S.-led order is weakening as Washington prioritizes America First and retreats from convening roles. Possible trajectories include renewed great-power conflict, a fragmented system, or concentrated U.S. competition with China. A durable U.S. and China bipolarity appears most plausible. Southeast Asian governments should hedge, avoid binary alignment, and position for gains in AI, energy, and biotech. Ryan Hass, Fulcrum, November 27
How China Outmanoeuvres the West in Myanmar. China has increased influence in Myanmar by pairing economic heft with engagement of both the junta’s State Security and Peace Commission and non state authorities. Tactics include halting trade, closing borders, and a “five cut” approach that restricts internet, fuel, electricity, food and essentials. Beijing also pressed for security arrangements and project acceleration. Western sanctions persist while trade continues, benefiting the regime’s control. Jared Bissinger, Fulcrum, November 26
South Asia
Pakistan–Afghanistan conflict tests China’s regional influence. China urged Pakistan and Afghanistan to exercise restraint as border clashes threaten CPEC timelines and the safety of Chinese personnel and projects. Heightened tensions risk spillover into Xinjiang and empower militant groups. Beijing’s neutrality faces strain amid Pakistan’s rare earths outreach to the U.S. and India’s Kabul upgrade, creating openings for India while China protects interests through incentives and coercion. Shaheli Das, East Asia Forum, November 29
Central Asia
What Intensified Trade With China Has Meant for Border Communities in Kazakhstan. Since BRI’s launch, Sino-Kazakh ties expanded beyond energy, with trade around $44 billion in 2023-24 and Chinese investment exceeding $27 billion since 2005. Border hubs Khorgos ICBC and Dostyk-Alashankou now handle $12.5 billion via Khorgos and 18 million tons at Dostyk in 2024, pushing rail freight above 32 million tons. Yet local communities report low-paid work and concerns over land, dependency, and environmental impacts. Nina Miholjcic Ivkovic, The Diplomat, November 26