Asia Daily: December 1, 2023
News
Philippines builds new coast guard station on island in South China Sea. The Philippines has constructed a new coast guard station on Thitu Island in the South China Sea, a strategic move to enhance surveillance capabilities over Chinese naval activities in the contested region. This development occurs amidst escalating tensions over territorial claims in the South China Sea, where several countries, including Brunei, China, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam, assert sovereignty. The facility, located on Thitu, known locally as Pag-asa, is equipped with advanced technology and is pivotal for Manila in asserting its territorial claims in these disputed waters. Karen Lema and Mikhail Flores, Reuters, December 1
Indonesia approves 20% rise in defence budget by 2024. Indonesia, responding to evolving geopolitical and security dynamics, has approved a significant increase in its defense budget for the next year. The budget will rise from US$20.75 billion to US$25 billion, as confirmed by Finance Minister Sri Mulyani. This increase, financed through foreign loans, aims to upgrade the country's military hardware. The defense ministry has led various military hardware procurements, including the purchase of 42 Dassault Rafale fighter jets, 12 drones from Turkish Aerospace, and 12 Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets. Channel News Asia, November 30
Biggest faction of Japan's ruling party LDP allegedly pools secret funds. The largest faction of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is reportedly involved in pooling secret funds amounting to approximately 100 million yen ($676,000). This fund was ostensibly used for reimbursing members who exceeded their sales quotas for fundraising party tickets. This revelation has sparked an investigation by prosecutors and raises concerns about compliance with political fund reporting requirements under Japanese law. The issue could have significant implications for the political landscape in Japan, especially considering the high-profile nature of the LDP faction involved. Kyodo News, Kyodo News, December 1
China’s Xi Jinping focuses on tech innovation, supply chains during first Shanghai visit in 3 years. During his first visit to Shanghai in three years, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the need for technological innovation and developmental security. He outlined objectives for the integrated Yangtze River Delta region, stressing the importance of boosting innovative capacity, industrial competitiveness, and supply chain expansion. Xi's visit included stops at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Science and Technology Innovation Exhibition, and an affordable housing project, highlighting his focus on enhancing China’s soft power through technological self-reliance. The Yangtze River Economic Belt, a key project for Xi, encompasses the country’s largest economic zone and is vital for its high-quality and green growth. These developments indicate a strategic push to strengthen China's economic and technological capabilities amidst global competition and challenges. Phoebe Zhang, Liu Zhen, and Daniel Ren, South China Morning Post, November 30
National Assembly adopts resolution urging China not to repatriate N.K. refugees. The South Korean National Assembly has passed a resolution urging China to stop repatriating North Korean defectors and to recognize them as refugees. Garnering widespread support, the resolution also calls for the South Korean government and international organizations to increase efforts to prevent such forced repatriations. Additionally, the Assembly extended the deployment of South Korean military units, the Akh unit in the United Arab Emirates and the Cheonghae Unit in the Gulf of Aden, until the end of 2024. Kang Jae-eun, Yonhap News Agency, November 30
US issues new North Korea sanctions targeting 8 people and hacking group Kimsuky. The United States has implemented new sanctions related to North Korea, targeting eight individuals and the hacking group Kimsuky. These measures, revealed on the U.S. Treasury Department's website, aim to address concerns regarding North Korea's activities and cyber operations. The sanctions are part of ongoing efforts by the U.S. to respond to North Korean policies and actions that are of international concern. Kanishka Singh, Reuters, November 30
PM concludes visit to Türkiye. Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính concluded his official visit to Türkiye, departing Ankara for Dubai, UAE, to attend the World Climate Summit at COP28 and partake in bilateral activities. During his visit, PM Chính engaged with Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) to explore bilateral defense industry cooperation. He emphasized Vietnam's commitment to modernizing its national defense and suggested exploring cooperation opportunities that align with each country's needs and capacities. The visit also included a tour of the Anatolian Civilizations Museum in Ankara, reflecting cultural engagement alongside diplomatic and defense discussions. Vietnam News, November 30
Taiwan reports more Chinese military activity as election nears. Taiwan has observed intensified Chinese military presence around its territory, including warplane crossings over the median line of the Taiwan Strait, as the island prepares for its presidential and parliamentary elections on January 13. This pattern of Chinese military activities, seen as a response to perceived separatist movements in Taiwan, coincides with heightened election campaigning. Taiwan's government continues to reject Beijing's sovereignty claims and advocates for dialogue, insisting that only the island's inhabitants can determine their future. Channel News Asia, November 30
Indian economy grew faster than expected on manufacturing, government spending. India's economy grew at a robust pace of 7.6% in the July-September quarter, fueled by significant government spending and a surge in manufacturing. This growth exceeded the forecasts, with India continuing as one of the fastest-growing major economies. Despite the positive trend, concerns about a slowdown in private consumption due to weaker rural demand were noted. Economists are now optimistic that India may surpass its own full-year growth projection of 6.5%. Shivangi Acharya and Manoj Kumar, Reuters, November 30
Long Form
PALM10: Japan’s Chance to Engage With Pacific Island Countries. Japan is preparing to host the 10th triennial Pacific Island Leaders Meeting (PALM10), a crucial diplomatic event that has been the cornerstone of Japan's diplomacy toward the Pacific Island countries (PICs) since 1997. This meeting offers Japan a significant opportunity to define and strengthen its role in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in light of China's increasing influence over the PICs. PALM10 is an ideal platform for Tokyo to articulate how the PICs align with Japan's Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision and to garner support from both the PICs and Japan's allies and partners. The strategic engagement in this forum will be key to Japan's broader objectives in the Indo-Pacific, balancing regional influences and fostering cooperative relationships. By Mina Pollmann, The Diplomat, November 30
Japan Fears Growing Threat From North Korea’s Latest Spy Satellite. Japan is increasingly concerned about the military threat posed by North Korea, especially following the successful launch of a North Korean surveillance satellite on November 21. This development marks a significant advancement in North Korea's military technology and signals a new era of space power for the country. Japan's Defense Minister Kihara Minoru acknowledged the need for Japan to analyze the satellite's capabilities and enhance its own space operation capacity. The launch has heightened regional and international security concerns, prompting Japan to consider strengthening its system for space superiority within the next decade. This situation underscores the escalating tensions and the evolving security dynamics in East Asia. By Thisanka Siripala, The Diplomat, December 1
Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence: Why America Must Reassure, Not Just Threaten, China. Effective deterrence in the Taiwan Strait requires the United States to balance military threats with diplomatic assurances to both China and Taiwan. This approach involves supporting Taiwan's defensive strategies while clearly opposing unilateral changes to the status quo by either Beijing or Taipei. The U.S. must avoid actions that could be perceived as moving toward formal diplomatic relations or a defense alliance with Taiwan. Such a balanced strategy is crucial for maintaining stability in the region and preventing escalation into conflict. By Bonnie S. Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas J. Christensen, Foreign Affairs, November 30
Is the CCP's Development Model Viable in the Indo-Pacific? The Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) development model, characterized by socialist state-directed market capitalism, has been a subject of scrutiny in the context of the Indo-Pacific region. This model, which played a significant role in China's economic transformation and lifting millions out of poverty, is now being evaluated for its broader applicability and impact. The CCP's approach, which includes projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, aims to reshape the global order to align with its domestic attributes, raising concerns about political control, human rights, and economic sustainability. The model's reliance on party authority and political control poses challenges to democracy and liberal market principles. Additionally, the CCP's narrative attributing its success to socialism is seen as a threat to the global liberal order. The viability of this development model in smaller states of the Indo-Pacific, which rely on a rules-based global market, is questionable due to its hegemonic nature and potential to create economic dependencies. . By Jonathan Ping, East Asia Forum, December 1
Export Controls Won’t Solve Indian Agriculture’s Deeper Problems. India's agricultural sector, marked by unpredictability, has shifted from producing exportable surpluses to grappling with potential domestic supply shortages. In response to these shortages and the resulting food insecurity and price inflation, the Indian government has implemented export controls on staples like wheat and rice. Despite a record-breaking agricultural export performance in the previous year, major agricultural commodities have shown negative export growth in the first half of the 2023–24 financial year. The government's export restrictions, including a ban on rice exports and export taxes on other commodities, have led to significant price increases in international markets. These measures, while aimed at controlling domestic food prices, have drawn criticism from several countries and raised concerns about their impact on global food security. By Biswajit Dhar, East Asia Forum, December 1
Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base: New Chinese Trojan Horse?China's expansion in the South China Sea includes the dual-use enlargement of Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base, raising concerns about Beijing’s growing naval presence. This development is part of China’s strategy to establish itself as a maritime power and challenge U.S. dominance. The increasing Chinese presence and construction activities around the base have alarmed neighboring countries, including Thailand and Vietnam, due to the potential for Chinese power projection and military threats. The base's expansion includes facilities capable of docking large naval vessels, such as aircraft carriers, and constructing a large drydock. This has led to speculation about the base's role in China’s broader military objectives. The situation is complicated by Cambodia’s constitutional prohibition against foreign military bases, although recent developments suggest the base could function as a de facto Chinese naval base. The Ream Naval Base's expansion reflects China's broader efforts to secure its maritime interests and project power in the region, posing strategic challenges to neighboring countries and the existing regional order. By Andy Wong Ming Jun, Asia Sentinel, November 20