Asia Daily: August 9, 2024
News
Thailand’s reformist Move Forward Party, dissolved by court order, regroups as People’s Party. Just two days after being disbanded by a court order, Thailand’s main progressive political party has regrouped under a new name, the People’s Party, and vowed to continue pushing for reforms. The Constitutional Court dissolved the Move Forward Party, citing its attempt to amend the law criminalizing insults to the royal family as unconstitutional. The court also banned former party executives, including leader Pita Limjaroenrat, from politics for 10 years. The reformed party, led by IT expert Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, aims to contest future elections, targeting a single-party government by 2027. Jintamas Saksornchai, AP News, August 9
Central Asian leaders sound optimistic note on expanding regional trade at Astana meeting. Leaders from Central Asia expressed optimism about expanding regional trade during a meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan. The summit brought together the presidents of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, who discussed increasing economic cooperation and reducing trade barriers within the region. They emphasized the importance of infrastructure projects, such as new transport corridors, to facilitate trade and enhance connectivity between their countries. Eurasianet, August 9
Deputy PM urges resolution of issues involving projects and land resources. Deputy Prime Minister Trần Hồng Hà called for urgent action to resolve complications surrounding project implementations and land resource management. He emphasized adherence to the Politburo's directives and the importance of addressing inspection, audit findings, and court rulings, particularly in provinces with pending issues. Hà highlighted that resolving these matters is crucial for unlocking economic and social development resources. Vietnam News, August 9
Hospitals begin hiring more trainee doctors. Hospitals in South Korea have started new recruitment efforts for trainee doctors after a previous round saw only 1.4% of the 7,645 available positions filled. The low turnout was attributed to ongoing protests over a medical reform plan, including a proposed increase in the medical school quota. Thousands of trainee doctors resigned in protest, and while the government hopes that extending the recruitment period will attract more applicants, some senior doctors have vowed to boycott training until the reform plan is fully abandoned. Kang Yoon-seung, Yonhap News Agency, August 9
Philippine court blocks government’s effort to close news outlet that criticized former president. A Philippine appeals court has reversed a 2018 order from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to shut down Rappler, a prominent news outlet known for its critical coverage of former President Rodrigo Duterte. The court ordered the SEC to restore Rappler’s certificates of incorporation, marking a significant legal victory for the outlet, which was founded by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa. The case was one of several legal battles Rappler faced under Duterte, who was known for targeting media organizations critical of his administration. AP News, August 9
Philippines, Vietnam hold first-ever joint coast guard exercise. On Friday, Philippine and Vietnamese coast guard vessels conducted their first joint exercises, which included blasting a boat with water cannon and simulating a search and rescue operation. Vietnam's 90-meter ship CSB 8002 joined the Philippine offshore patrol vessel BRP Gabriela Silang for drills in firefighting, rescue, and medical response. The exercises mark a significant collaboration between the two nations, both of which have ongoing disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea. Jay Ereno, Lisa Marie David, and Neil Jerome Morales, Reuters, August 9
Kishida Cabinet members resume holding fundraising parties. Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio's Cabinet members have resumed holding fundraising parties, with reports indicating that some ministers earned millions of yen from these events in 2022. Notable figures, including Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno and Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, were among those who benefited. The practice, while legal, has drawn criticism for its potential to influence political decisions and the transparency of political financing in Japan. The Japan Times, August 9
Uzbekistan repairs Afghanistan’s Naibabad railway station. Uzbekistan has completed repairs on Afghanistan’s Naibabad railway station, which is crucial for the transit of goods between the two countries. The station is a key part of the Hairatan-Mazar-i-Sharif railway line, which facilitates the movement of essential goods, including food and fuel, from Uzbekistan into Afghanistan. The repair work ensures that the railway remains operational, supporting Afghanistan’s access to vital supplies and maintaining trade routes despite regional challenges. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, August 9
Marcos: Police ops to be humane, bloodless. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has pledged that police operations under his administration will be humane and bloodless. During the 122nd anniversary of the Philippine National Police, Marcos emphasized that law enforcement should respect human rights and uphold the dignity of all individuals. This approach marks a departure from the violent anti-drug campaigns under his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, August 9
Laos establishes bullion bank to secure gold reserves, stabilize kip. Laos has launched its first bullion bank to help secure gold reserves and stabilize the national currency, the kip. The government aims to build public confidence in the currency by encouraging the population to deposit gold, which will be used as a buffer against currency fluctuations. The bank, operated by the Lao Gold and Silver Department, will also facilitate gold trading and storage. This initiative is part of broader efforts to address economic challenges, including inflation and currency devaluation. Kheuakham Chanlivong, The Laotian Times, August 9
Philippines, US launch live-fire drill with South China Sea in sight to show unity. The Philippines and the United States conducted a live-fire drill on Friday involving the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) at a base facing the South China Sea. The exercise, part of the annual Salaknib bilateral exercise, aimed to enhance defense interoperability amid growing concerns over China's militarization in the region. Philippine soldiers participated alongside their American counterparts, reflecting the strong partnership between the two nations under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. Jeoffrey Maitem, South China Morning Post, August 9.
China to expand market access for Cambodian goods. China has agreed to increase market access for Cambodian agricultural products as part of efforts to enhance bilateral trade. Cambodian Minister of Commerce Pan Sorasak and Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao discussed expanding exports of key Cambodian goods, including bananas, mangoes, and longans, during a recent meeting. This development is expected to boost Cambodia’s agricultural sector and further strengthen trade relations between the two countries, with the aim of reaching a $10 billion trade volume by 2024. Niem Chheng, The Phnom Penh Post, August 9
Myanmar’s Brotherhood Alliance calls on Northeast Command chief to surrender. Myanmar’s Brotherhood Alliance, consisting of three ethnic armed groups, has called for the surrender of Major General Thaung Hlaing, the chief of the military's Northeast Command. The alliance issued the demand following intensified clashes in Shan State, where the alliance has gained ground against junta forces. The move is part of broader efforts to undermine the military junta’s control in the region. The Irrawaddy, August 9
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan aim for $10 billion trade volume. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have set a goal to increase their bilateral trade volume to $10 billion by 2024. The agreement was made during a meeting between Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Both countries plan to enhance cooperation in various sectors, including energy, agriculture, and transport, to reach this ambitious target. The two leaders also emphasized the importance of strengthening regional security and economic ties. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, August 9
Ex-MFP MPs set to face ethics probe. Former members of the Move Forward Party (MFP) in Thailand are set to face an ethics probe after resigning from the party to join the Bhumjaithai Party. The House Committee on Ethics will investigate whether their actions, which include switching political affiliations shortly after the general election, violated ethical standards. The probe follows public criticism that the MPs' defections were motivated by personal gain rather than the interests of their constituents. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, August 9
Long Form
Keeping Value Chains at Home: How China Controls Foreign Access to Technology and What It Means for Europe. China's government is increasingly focused on controlling technology-related outflows to maintain its dominance in critical innovation capacities. This involves using dual-use export controls, civilian technology export regimes, and other tools to monitor and limit foreign access to key technologies. European governments and firms must prepare for a future where China leverages its technological advantages in a more opaque and strategic manner. MERICS, August 8
Bangladesh: The Economist Turned Saviour. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, previously known for pioneering microfinance, has been named interim Prime Minister of Bangladesh following the dramatic ouster of Sheikh Hasina. At 84, Yunus now faces the challenge of stabilizing a country marred by protests and restoring trust in governance. Despite his economic achievements, he has been a target of legal harassment under Hasina’s regime, which complicates his new role as a national leader. Aarti Betigeri, Lowy Institute, August 8
Countering Fentanyl with Diplomacy. The United States can leverage diplomacy to combat the fentanyl crisis by engaging China, where fentanyl precursors are produced. While the Chinese government has a history of combating drug addiction within its borders, it has not effectively curtailed the export of these substances. Diplomatic efforts could push China to take stronger actions against illegal drug flows, which would benefit both countries. David Luckey and Scott Savitz, RAND, August 7
Taiwan's Latest Defense Budget Risks Falling Further Behind China. Taiwan's nearly 6% defense budget increase to $20 billion for 2025 is seen as insufficient to keep pace with China's rapidly expanding military capabilities. Despite recent defense enhancements, Taiwan's military still lags behind the People's Liberation Army (PLA), raising concerns over Taiwan's preparedness and the potential erosion of deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. Analysts suggest Taiwan must significantly boost its defense spending to meet the growing threat. David Sacks, CFR, August 9
Will Technology Differentiate China Today from Japan in the 1990s? This analysis explores whether China's current technological advancements will prevent it from experiencing an economic stagnation similar to Japan's in the 1990s. While both nations share similarities in rapid economic growth and export-driven strategies, China's focus on cutting-edge technologies may offer a distinct trajectory. However, challenges such as demographic shifts and global economic dependencies could influence China's long-term prospects. Michael Pettis, Carnegie Endowment, August 8
High Hurdles for Achieving Squad Goals in the South China Sea. The "Squad," consisting of the U.S., Australia, Japan, and the Philippines, faces challenges in effectively countering Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. Key obstacles include the Philippines' limited military capabilities, ASEAN's restrictions on military actions, and potential shifts in U.S. and Philippine domestic politics, which may hinder the group's ability to present a united front against China. Prisie Patnayak, East Asia Forum, August 9
Prabowo's Pivot Away from ASEAN and the Indo-Pacific. Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto is signaling a shift in Indonesia's foreign policy by distancing from ASEAN's collective security framework and embracing a more nationalistic approach. This pivot, focused on bilateral relations and enhancing Indonesia's military independence, raises concerns about the future of regional stability and ASEAN unity, especially amid rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific. David Camroux and Mahrus Harnadi, East Asia Forum, August 9
Nuclear Shadows Over South Asia: Strategic Instabilities in the China-India-Pakistan Triad. The nuclear dynamics between China, India, and Pakistan are creating strategic instability in South Asia, with growing concerns over potential miscalculations and arms races. As China strengthens its nuclear capabilities and India and Pakistan follow suit, the region faces heightened risks of conflict, exacerbated by the lack of clear communication channels and trust among these nuclear-armed neighbors. Shawn Rostker, The Diplomat, August 9
Palm Oil Smallholders in Indonesia Need Government Help, Not Hindrance. Indonesian palm oil smallholders face challenges from government policies that favor large-scale producers. These smallholders require more supportive measures, such as improved access to financing, sustainable practices training, and market opportunities, rather than restrictive regulations. Proper government intervention is crucial for ensuring their economic sustainability and environmental compliance. Tania Murray Li and Pujo Semedi, The Diplomat, August 9
Against the Grain: How North Korean Weapons Sales Could Squash Food Markets. North Korea’s illicit weapons sales, particularly to Russia, could divert resources and focus away from domestic agriculture, exacerbating the country's chronic food shortages. The revenue from these sales might not translate into sufficient food imports, further straining an already fragile food supply. This situation shows the complex trade-offs North Korea faces between military ambitions and the dire need for food security. Peter Ward, NK News, August 9
South Korea Confronts Underpriced Stock Market but Shirks Chaebol Reform. Despite acknowledging the undervaluation of its stock market, South Korea continues to avoid substantial reforms targeting the powerful chaebols (conglomerates). Instead of addressing the structural issues that contribute to market inefficiencies, the government focuses on short-term measures like buybacks and dividend increases, which are unlikely to resolve deeper concerns over transparency and corporate governance. This reluctance to tackle chaebol dominance could hinder long-term market improvement. John Lee, KoreaPro, August 9
Seoul's Spy Scandal Exposes Intelligence Vulnerabilities. A recent scandal involving South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) has revealed weaknesses in the country's intelligence operations. The scandal, which involves the leaking of sensitive information, highlights issues such as poor operational security, internal corruption, and inadequate oversight. These vulnerabilities not only threaten national security but also raise concerns about the NIS's ability to protect against foreign espionage. KoreaPro, August 9
Japan: The Courteous Power Bares Some Teeth for Regional Stability. Japan is shifting its traditionally reserved diplomatic stance by taking a more assertive role in ensuring regional stability, particularly in response to China's growing influence. This approach involves enhancing defense capabilities and deepening security partnerships, reflecting Japan's evolving strategy to safeguard its interests and contribute more actively to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Willaim Choon and Joanne Lin, Fulcrum, August 9