China
90-day extension of U.S.-China tariff truce is likely, U.S Commerce Secretary Lutnick says. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled that a 90-day extension of the U.S.-China tariff pause is probable, following recent talks in Stockholm. The truce, set to expire August 12, has suspended tariff hikes amid escalating duties—up to 145% on Chinese imports and 125% on U.S. goods to China. Bochen Han, South China Morning Post, August
People’s Daily spells out details of PLA’s mid-century goal, with the US as a benchmark. China’s military must measure itself against the world’s strongest armed forces, notably the United States, to achieve its goal of becoming “world-class” by 2049, according to a People’s Daily commentary. The plan calls for advances in weaponry, organisation, theory, and talent, with AI-driven “intelligentisation” integrated alongside mechanisation and informatisation to accelerate modernisation. Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, August 8
China’s exports and imports picked up in July, helped by the pause in Trump’s higher tariffs. China’s exports rose 7.2% in July from a year earlier and imports grew at their fastest pace in a year as businesses took advantage of a temporary pause in higher U.S. tariffs. Exports to the U.S. fell nearly 22%, but shipments to Africa and Southeast Asia saw double-digit growth. The truce, set to expire August 12, has fueled trade diversification. Elaine Kurtenbach, Associated Press, August 7
Japan
Japan says U.S. to fix Trump tariff order, refund overpayments. The United States has agreed to amend a tariff-related executive order to properly implement a July 22 trade deal with Japan and refund excess duties collected due to an error, Japanese negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said. The agreement lowers U.S. auto tariffs on Japanese vehicles to 15% from 27.5% in exchange for major Japanese investment, with additional duties capped at 15% under a “no stacking” rule. Kyodo News, August 8
South Korea
South Korea special prosecutor seeks detention warrant for ex-first lady. South Korean prosecutors have requested an arrest warrant for former first lady Kim Keon Hee on charges including stock fraud, bribery, and illegal influence peddling. The move raises the possibility she could be detained alongside her husband, impeached ex-President Yoon Suk Yeol, who is on trial for insurrection. Yoon resisted removal from prison for questioning related to the case, prompting a tense standoff with authorities. Jack Kim and Joyce Lee, Reuters, August 7
Special counsel suspends execution of detention warrant for Yoon due to 'stubborn refusal'. A South Korean special counsel team halted its attempt to execute a detention warrant for jailed former President Yoon Suk Yeol over election meddling allegations, citing injury concerns after he resisted removal from his prison cell. Lawyers condemned the attempt as “public shaming,” detailing a physical struggle with about 10 officers. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, August 7
Special counsel questions Assembly speaker as witness in martial law probe. National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik testified before special counsel Cho Eun-suk’s team about former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s December 2024 martial law declaration. Woo, who presided over the session that passed a resolution demanding Yoon lift martial law, was expected to be asked if the People Power Party obstructed the vote under Yoon’s orders. Kim Boram, Yonhap News Agency, August 7
North Korea
U.S. notes 'with interest' N. Korea's recent statement hinting at openness to dialogue: official. U.S. diplomat Seth Bailey said Washington has taken note of remarks by Kim Yo-jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, suggesting interest in engagement with the Trump administration while rejecting nuclear negotiations. Bailey reaffirmed remains recovery as a diplomatic and moral priority under the 2018 Singapore summit framework. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, August 8
Thailand
Cambodia and Thailand agree to ASEAN observers to ensure ceasefire holds. Cambodia and Thailand have agreed to allow ASEAN military observers, led by Malaysia, to monitor disputed border areas following last month’s five-day conflict that killed at least 43 people and displaced more than 300,000. The agreement, reached in Kuala Lumpur with observers from China and the United States, sets terms for maintaining the ceasefire and improving army communications, with further talks planned. Rozanna Latiff, Reuters, August 7
Vietnam
Vietnam expects more talks with U.S. to finalise trade deal. Vietnam will continue negotiations with the United States to complete a trade agreement that lowers U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese imports to 20%, from a proposed 46%, while goods deemed illegally transshipped via Vietnam will face a 40% rate. The Ministry of Industry and Trade is preparing an implementation plan, as July exports rose 16% year-on-year to $42.3 billion. Phuong Nguyen, Reuters, August 7
Party Central Committee’s Office sets 2025-30 agenda at Hanoi congress. The Party Central Committee’s Office held its congress for the 2025-30 tenure in Hanoi, attended by Party General Secretary To Lam. Tran Cam Tu praised the office’s role in advising top Party bodies, advancing organisational reforms, and supporting preparations for the 14th National Party Congress. Lam Thi Phuong Thanh was elected Party Committee Secretary. Vietnam News, August 7
Myanmar
Myanmar signs deal with Washington lobbyists to rebuild US relations. Myanmar’s Ministry of Information has signed a $3 million-per-year agreement with Washington-based DCI Group to restore ties with the United States, coinciding with the junta’s nominal transfer of power to a civilian-led interim government. Military chief Min Aung Hlaing retains control as acting president and armed forces head, signaling no real political shift. The deal focuses on trade, natural resources, and humanitarian relief, despite U.S. sanctions on Myanmar’s leadership. David Brunnstrom, Reuters, August 7
Laos
Foreign minister to visit Singapore, the Philippines. Lao Foreign Minister Thongsavanh Phomvihane will make official visits to Singapore and the Philippines from August 11-14 to strengthen bilateral relations. In Singapore, he will meet counterpart Vivian Balakrishnan, while in Manila he will confer with Maria Theresa P. Lazaro and attend the third Laos-Philippines Joint Commission on Bilateral Cooperation. The trips aim to deepen cooperation with both ASEAN partners in areas of mutual interest. Vientiane Times, August 8
Cambodia
Cambodia PM says he has nominated Donald Trump for Nobel Prize. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet announced he has nominated U.S. President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, praising his role in halting last month’s deadly border conflict with Thailand. Hun Manet credited Trump’s July 26 call to both leaders with breaking the deadlock, leading to a ceasefire and ASEAN observer agreement. The five-day clash killed 43 people and displaced over 300,000. Martin Petty, Reuters, August 7
Philippines
Marcos vows stronger ASEAN leadership in 2026 amid emerging challenges. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. pledged to strengthen the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ role as the Philippines prepares to chair the bloc in 2026. Speaking on ASEAN’s 58th anniversary, he highlighted the group’s legacy of peace, cooperation, and shared prosperity, and praised Malaysia’s current leadership under themes of inclusivity and sustainability. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, August 8
Escudero slams politicized impeach push, defends Senate vote. Senate President Francis Escudero criticized what he called politically driven efforts to misuse impeachment for personal vendettas, stressing the Senate’s role in upholding justice and constitutional order. His remarks followed the chamber’s 19-0 vote to archive the impeachment complaint against Vice President Sara Duterte in compliance with a Supreme Court ruling. Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, August 7
Indonesia
Indonesian Army to establish six new regional commands in major expansion. The Indonesian Armed Forces will add six new regional military commands to boost nationwide presence and readiness, raising the total from 15 to 21. Launching August 10 in Bandung, the new units will cover provinces including Riau, West Sumatra, Lampung, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Merauke. Jakarta Globe, August 8
Taiwan
China accuses Philippines of 'playing with fire' on Taiwan. China condemned Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s remarks that the country would inevitably be involved in any China-U.S. conflict over Taiwan due to geographic proximity and the large Filipino community there. Beijing urged Manila to honor the one-China principle and avoid actions threatening its core interests. Reuters, August 7
Kazakhstan
Kazakhtelecom CEO confirms 2026 launch of Caspian submarine cable project. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have begun active implementation of a submarine fiber-optic cable across the Caspian Sea, set for completion by late 2026. The 380-400 km system will connect the nations’ digital networks, offering at least 400 Tbit/s capacity. Kazakhtelecom, now leading the $50.6 million project, has completed coastal site surveys and is mapping the seabed to finalize the route. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, August 7
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan enacts media law despite rights concerns. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov has signed a law expanding government control over media, requiring all outlets, including online platforms, to register and capping foreign ownership at 35%. Critics warn it could suppress dissent and press freedom. Japarov also approved fines for spreading “false information” of up to $740. Rights groups say the measures breach international free expression standards. Aigerim Turgunbaeva, Reuters, August 7
Northeast Asia
China’s Subsidies Are Fueling “Involutionary” Competition in the Auto Sector. Fixed-sum scrappage and trade-in subsidies steer buyers toward cheaper models, intensifying price wars and slowing consolidation. Central auto subsidies are estimated at 342 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for approximately 3% of central revenue and 7% of passenger-car retail sales, with 150 billion allocated for scrappage/trade-in and 192 billion for NEV purchase-tax exemptions. Regulators have urged OEMs to stop undercutting and tightened “zero-mileage” reporting. With weak income growth and NEV tax breaks halving in 2026–27, support will likely extend at least through 2026 even as policymakers try to curb “involutionary” dynamics. Endeavour Tian, Rhodium Group, August 7
A New World Cop on the Beat? China’s Internal Security Outreach Under the Global Security Initiative. China’s Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of State Security, and CCP Central Political-Legal Commission are expanding overseas law-enforcement diplomacy under the GSI. Original data record 321 interactions across 227 events since 2022, spanning Interpol engagement, the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum (Lianyungang), and regional architectures in Southeast and Central Asia and the Pacific Islands. These channels project regime-security-centric norms, deepen police-to-police ties, and build parallel frameworks that complement, revise, or bypass Western-led arrangements, making nonmilitary security cooperation a core pillar of PRC foreign policy. Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Isaac B. Kardon, and Cameron Waltz, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 6
Kim Jong Un’s Letters to Moscow: A Window Into DPRK-Russia Relations. Correspondence from 2012–2024 shows an arc from boilerplate greetings to explicit ideological alignment, especially after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Honorifics move to “comrade” and rhetoric stresses solidarity against “imperialists,” tracking deeper ties after Shoigu’s 2023 visit, the 2019 summit, and the 2024 treaty enabling consultations and potential military action. The letters serve as a barometer of policy, pointing to a durable, politically framed partnership with implications for regional planning by Seoul and Washington. Jinwan Park, 38 North, August 7
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia Should Be Clear-Eyed As It Navigates Trump’s Tariff Fog. The July 31 U.S. tariff regime lifts average rates from ~2.4% to about 18% and assigns country-specific levels, ranging from roughly 10% for Singapore up to 40% for Laos and Myanmar, plus a 40% duty on “transshipped” goods. The change undermines MFN norms and predictability that powered export-led growth, ushering in ad hoc bargaining and higher volatility. Even economies with provisional “framework” deals should expect follow-on demands and moving targets, raising planning risk across ASEAN supply chains. Stephen Olson, FULCRUM, August 8
How China Might Retaliate Against Southeast Asia’s US Trade Deals. ASEAN governments have secured lower reciprocal U.S. tariffs (about 15–19%) but accepted a 40% levy on Chinese transshipment, with similar terms explored for India, aimed at limiting China’s role in regional supply chains. Beijing’s likely countermeasures center on leverage in finance, investment, and trade: delaying debt restructurings and rollovers, pausing infrastructure tie-ups (including BRI rail linkages), or slowing approvals for private outbound FDI in clean energy, EVs, mining, and electronics. Such calibrated pressure raises costs and political risk without dramatic seizures or sanctions. Olivia Tan Jia Yi, FULCRUM, August 7
South Asia
India’s burgeoning population lead over China will not be enough to fully close the resource demand gap. India’s larger population will not surpass China’s absolute resource demand by 2050. Lower per-capita incomes and a development path heavier on urbanization and motorization than on industrialization and electrification keep consumption below China’s. IEA-based projections suggest India’s economy reaches ~70% of China’s by 2050, per-capita GDP ~54%; energy use rises to ~46% of China’s, steel/cement to roughly 40–50%, while power capacity remains under one-fifth. Household formation also constrains building demand, with ~50 million fewer households and far less residential floorspace than China projected by mid-century. Huw McKay, East Asia Forum, August 7