Asia Daily: August 7, 2024
News
Thai court dissolves progressive Move Forward Party, which won election but was blocked from power. Thailand's Constitutional Court dissolved the Move Forward Party for proposing to amend a law against defaming the royal family, claiming it aimed to overthrow the constitutional monarchy. The party, which won the 2023 election but couldn't form a government, saw its leaders banned from political activity for 10 years. Ex-leader Pita Limjaroenrat urged supporters to continue their political efforts through future elections. Jintamas Saksornchai, AP News, August 7.
Comelec to file case vs Guo. The Commission on Elections (Comelec) en banc approved filing charges against suspended Bamban, Tarlac Mayor Alice Guo for misrepresentation regarding her citizenship during her 2022 candidacy. Chairman George Erwin Garcia noted that fingerprint matches from various documents confirmed Guo's identity. The law department will conduct a preliminary investigation to establish probable cause. Guo could face one to six years of imprisonment and disqualification from public office if found guilty, with additional charges of perjury for falsely claiming Filipino citizenship. William B. Depasupil, The Manila Times, August 7
US, Australia, Canada, Philippines stage naval and air force maneuvers in disputed South China Sea. The U.S., Australia, Canada, and the Philippines conducted joint air and naval exercises to uphold international law and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. China, which claims much of the sea, conducted its own combat patrols in response. The exercises included sea maneuvers and anti-submarine drills. Military leaders emphasized cooperation and a rules-based order. Hostilities between Chinese and Philippine forces have raised fears of larger conflicts. Jim Gomez, AP News, August 7
Japan PM urges party debate on amending pacifist constitution. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called for a debate within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on revising Japan's pacifist constitution. During a party convention, Kishida emphasized the need to adapt to changing security environments, advocating for stronger self-defense capabilities. The proposed constitutional amendment aims to clarify the legal status of Japan's Self-Defense Forces. Kishida's push for debate comes amid rising regional tensions and public opinion divided over constitutional changes. Kyodo News, August 7
Lao PM backs sci-tech cooperation with Việt Nam. Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone expressed strong support for continued scientific and technological collaboration with Việt Nam. In a meeting with VAST President Châu Văn Minh, they discussed ongoing projects such as the establishment of a big data center for digital transformation and a disaster warning center in Laos. Both sides aim to advance cooperation in various sectors, including food safety, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, and bio-products. Vietnam News, August 7
Heir apparent to Sri Lanka’s powerful Rajapaksa family will run in September’s presidential election. Namal Rajapaksa, son of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, will run as the Sri Lanka Peoples’ Front candidate in the September 21 election. This election is crucial for Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring and financial reforms under an IMF bailout. The Rajapaksa family, dominant in politics for decades, seeks a comeback after losing power during the 2022 economic crisis. The election will feature other candidates, including current President Ranil Wickremesinghe and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa. Bharatha Mallawarachi, AP News, August 7
PM requests Philippines' support in sending message against N.K. provocations. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo requested support from the Philippines' top diplomat Enrique Manalo to send a stern message against North Korea's provocations during their meeting in Seoul. Han emphasized the importance of a unified international stance. The talks also covered bilateral cooperation in supply chains, climate change, and workforce shortages, including the arrival of 100 Philippine domestic helpers in South Korea. Han highlighted the historical ties between the two nations, forged during the Korean War. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, August 7
China’s Wang Yi calls for international community to unite behind Gaza ceasefire. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged countries to form a “joint force” to resolve the Middle East conflict, emphasizing a full ceasefire in Gaza during calls with his counterparts in Jordan and Egypt. He stressed China's firm support for Arab nations and condemned the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Wang reiterated the need for a united international stance to avoid further escalation and promote peace in the region. Dewey Sim, South China Morning Post, August 7
Drones, armored vehicles, and planes: Kazakhstan announces large-scale rearmament. Kazakhstan's Defense Ministry has announced plans to modernize its military with new equipment, including domestically produced armored vehicles like the Arlan and COBRA II, and drones such as the SUNQAR and EVOMax. The country is also acquiring Russian Su-30SM fighter jets and Turkish ANKA UAVs. Additionally, Kazakhstan will receive European A400M heavy-lift military transport aircraft. The rearmament aims to enhance the military's capabilities, driven by lessons from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, August 7
US to increase force projection from Australia in face of 'coercive' China. Australia and the U.S. will start co-manufacturing guided weapons in 2024, enhancing defense cooperation. The U.S. will increase its military presence in Australia, including deploying bomber aircraft and maritime patrol units. The AUSMIN talks highlighted shared security challenges, including Chinese activities around Taiwan and in the South China Sea. Japan will join U.S. Marines in exercises in Darwin, and both nations will hold regular exercises in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. Kirsty Needham, Reuters, August 7
Chinese investors lead with nearly $400 million in July investment. Chinese investors dominated Cambodia's investment landscape in July, participating in nearly 45 new and expansion projects, primarily in the garment sector. The Council for the Development of Cambodia (CDC) reported $396 million in total investments, creating approximately 25,000 jobs. The Koh Kong Zhejiang SEZ and a new food processing plant are among the significant projects. Economic researcher Hong Vanak attributes the surge to strong bilateral relations and favorable trade conditions. Hong Raksmey, The Phnom Penh Post, August 7
Myanmar junta boss blames usual suspects, disappoints supporters in speech following fall of Lashio. After the Myanmar military's defeat in Lashio, Min Aung Hlaing's speech focused on blaming ethnic armed organizations and foreign nations without offering a clear strategy. He accused the National League for Democracy and groups like the Arakan Army of destabilizing the country. His call for unity and criticism of these groups, instead of addressing military failures or presenting concrete solutions, left supporters dismayed and highlighted the regime's difficulties in maintaining control. The Irrawaddy, August 7
US and EU express concern about Move Forward demise. The U.S. and EU have raised concerns about the Thai Constitutional Court's order to dissolve the Move Forward Party, emphasizing it undermines Thailand's democratic progress. The US State Department highlighted the disenfranchisement of 14 million voters, while the EU called the ruling a setback for political pluralism. Amnesty International and the Asian Forum for Human Rights also criticized the decision, warning it threatens democratic principles and free political association in Thailand. Bangkok Post, August 7
Philippines says China tails multi-nation sea exercises. The Philippines reported that three Chinese navy ships tailed joint military exercises involving the US, Australia, and Canada in the South China Sea. This two-day exercise emphasized freedom of navigation and overflight, taking place within Manila's 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone. China responded by conducting a combat patrol near Scarborough Shoal. These exercises come amid ongoing disputes over territorial claims, with China rejecting a 2016 court ruling invalidating its claims. Neil Jerome Morales, Karen Lema, and Mikhail Flores, Reuters, August 7
Tajikistan: Trade turnover increases, featuring a yawning deficit. Tajikistan's foreign trade turnover rose 22% in the first half of 2024, reaching $4.41 billion. However, exports lagged at $997 million, only 23% of the total, creating a significant trade deficit. Gold and other precious metals, primarily exported to Switzerland, were top earners. Other major export destinations included China, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. Despite large deficits with many trade partners, Tajikistan enjoys a surplus with Switzerland due to gold exports. Eurasianet, August 7
Kazakhstan deepens Caspian ports to boost Middle Corridor potential. Kazakhstan's Ministry of Transport is deepening the ports of Kuryk and Aktau to enhance the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). The dredging, managed by Jan de Nul, will increase port depth by 1.5-2 meters, allowing for greater terminal capacity. This is part of broader efforts to improve connectivity between China and Europe via Central Asia and the Caucasus. Cargo volumes along the TITR rose by 62% in the first seven months of 2024. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, August 7
EU and Pacific boost ties under Samoa Agreement. The EU and Pacific nations have strengthened their cooperation under the Samoa Agreement's Pacific Protocol, establishing a Pacific-EU Council of Ministers and a Joint Committee. EU Ambassador Barbara Plinkert highlighted initiatives like the Pacific-European Union Marine Partnership and the Global Gateway project, focusing on sustainable connectivity. The EU has committed EUR 650 million for 2021-2027 to support regional priorities, including economic integration and climate resilience. Pita Ligaiula, PINA, August 7
Indonesia launches China-built anode plant for EV batteries. President Joko Widodo inaugurated an anode plant for EV batteries built by China's BTR New Material Group and Singapore's Stellar Investment. The $478 million plant in Kendal, Central Java, will produce 80,000 metric tons annually in its first phase. The second phase, starting later this year, aims to double capacity with an additional $299 million investment. Indonesia aims to leverage its nickel resources to develop a domestic EV industry. Fransiska Nangoy, Reuters, August 7
Long Form
Looking Back at the Biden Administration's Pacific Strategy. The Biden administration's strategy in the Pacific has been marked by ambitious initiatives but mixed results. Key actions included an increase in aid, the establishment of the US-Pacific Islands Summit, and multiple bilateral security agreements. However, the response has been tempered by perceptions of American neglect and insufficient focus on regional development and climate change. Notable issues include delayed renewals of COFA agreements and criticism of continued US oil and gas production. Isabelle Zhu-Maguire, Lowy Institute, August 7
China’s High-Stakes Diplomacy: Managing Middle Eastern Turmoil. China’s diplomacy in the Middle East is critical due to its economic interests, particularly its reliance on the region's oil. Despite increased trade and efforts like brokering a Saudi-Iran agreement, Beijing faces challenges with the Israel-Iran conflict and Red Sea disruptions. China’s leverage over Iran could stabilize the region, but ongoing crises test its diplomatic effectiveness. Joseph Webster, Lowy Institute, August 7
Navigating Turbulence at Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippines and China continue to clash over the Second Thomas Shoal, despite the Philippines' transparency initiatives and former President Duterte's pivot to China policy. Recent tensions escalated when China's Coast Guard disrupted a Philippine resupply mission. This incident reflects ongoing disputes and the challenge for the Philippines to balance diplomacy and sovereignty. A provisional arrangement for resupply missions has been made, but China demands the removal of the BRP Sierra Madre. Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 7
Trilateral Highway is the Road to Regional Economic Connectivity. The India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway aims to improve regional economic integration and India's influence in Southeast Asia. Despite potential benefits, the project faces delays due to political instability in Myanmar, financial constraints, and security concerns. Once completed, the highway promises to boost trade, connectivity, and strategic partnerships in the region, aligning with India’s Act East policy. The highway's successful implementation is crucial for regional development and cooperation. Soumya Bhowmick, East Asia Forum, August 7
The Geopolitics of Cambodia’s Funan Techo Canal. The $1.7 billion Funan Techo Canal, linking Phnom Penh and the Gulf of Thailand, is a symbol of Cambodian national pride and security. Backed by China, the project raises concerns over regional stability and environmental impacts. It has potential security implications for Vietnam, particularly regarding water diversion from the Mekong River and the possibility of Chinese military presence. The canal highlights Cambodia's reliance on Chinese support for development while straining regional geopolitical dynamics. Nguyen Minh Quang and James Borton, The Diplomat, August 7
Why Japanese Investment in Southeast Asian LNG is Surging. Japanese investment in Southeast Asian LNG is increasing as Japan’s domestic LNG demand declines. Japanese energy companies are shifting focus to projects like Vietnam’s Block B gas field, backed by financing from Japanese banks. This move is part of Japan’s effort to support regional energy needs while managing the transition from coal to cleaner energy sources. The investments are seen as essential for maintaining grid stability and reducing carbon emissions in the region. James Guild, The Diplomat, August 7
Japan-U.S. Alliance Transforms with Concrete 'Two-Plus-Two' Talks. The recent "two-plus-two" security talks in Tokyo marked a significant shift in Japan-U.S. security relations. The discussions focused on closer integration, raising concerns in Japan about potential over-reliance on the U.S. and increased regional tensions, particularly with China. Despite liberal media criticism, the talks signify deeper strategic cooperation between the two nations. Kuni Miyake, The Japan Times, August 7
North Korean Crops Off to Strong Start in First Half, Satellite Data Shows. Satellite data analysis indicates that North Korean crops have grown better than average in the first half of the year, suggesting a strong harvest if flooding can be avoided. Using NASA’s Terra Modis satellite, NK Pro measured light reflection to assess vegetation growth. This positive development occurs amid ongoing concerns about food insecurity in North Korea. Anton Sokolin, NK Pro, August 7
How South Korea’s Tax Overhaul Could Exacerbate Sky-High Real Estate Prices. South Korea's major tax overhaul, set to take effect in 2025, includes significant changes to the inheritance and gift tax system. While intended to modernize the tax framework and reduce taxpayer burden, the revisions risk increasing housing inequality and economic volatility. By lowering the inheritance tax, the policy could exacerbate already high real estate prices, making it harder for new buyers to enter the market. John Lee, Korea Pro, August 7
South Korea’s Cabinet Moves to Veto Contentious Broadcasting Bills. South Korea's Cabinet has requested parliamentary reconsideration of four broadcasting bills passed by the opposition-controlled National Assembly. These bills aim to alter the governance of public broadcasters KBS, MBC, and EBS, and modify decision-making rules at the Korea Communications Commission. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo criticized the Democratic Party for ignoring government concerns and limiting presidential powers to dismiss public broadcaster heads. The motion awaits President Yoon Suk-yeol’s endorsement before returning to the Assembly for a revote. Minwoo Park, Korea Pro, August 7
China’s Environmental Focus in South China Sea: Questionable Motivations. China’s recent environmental reports in the South China Sea aim to counter the Philippines' accusations of ecological damage at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal. These reports suggest ulterior motives, including discrediting the Philippines and justifying the removal of the grounded vessel BRP Sierra Madre. The selective environmental focus raises skepticism about China’s true intentions. Lye Liang Fook, Fulcrum, August 7
Political Upheaval in Bangladesh: Challenges of Stability and Reordering.
Bangladesh faces severe political turmoil following Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's resignation amid mass protests against her authoritarian rule. The unrest, sparked by a regressive job allocation system, escalated into nationwide demonstrations. The government responded with a harsh crackdown, resulting in deaths and injuries. An interim government with military oversight has been formed, and opposition leader Khaleda Zia has been released. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus is proposed to lead the interim government. The situation presents significant geopolitical challenges for neighboring India. K.M. Seethi, The Geopolitics, August 7