Asia Daily: August 29, 2024
News
Heavy rain batters Japan after Typhoon Shanshan makes landfall in Kyushu. At least four people were killed and 94 injured as Typhoon Shanshan hit Japan, bringing strong winds and heavy rain after making landfall near Satsumasendai, Kagoshima Prefecture. The storm weakened but continued to impact wide areas of Japan, causing flooding, landslides, and disruptions to transportation. Level 5 emergency warnings were issued in multiple regions. The Japan Times, August 29
Indonesian app-based taxi drivers strike in protest over low pay. Over 1,000 motorcycle taxi drivers in Indonesia protested low pay and demanded better protection from the government against unfair practices by ride-sharing companies like GoTo and Grab. The drivers, who earn less than Jakarta's minimum wage, are asking for a higher share of earnings and more bargaining power. The companies, which treat drivers as partners rather than employees, have not made changes, prompting calls for government regulation. Stanley Widianto and Johan Purnomo, Reuters, August 29
Nippon Steel, peers urge Tokyo to curb steel imports from China, executive says. Nippon Steel and other Japanese steelmakers are lobbying the government to impose restrictions on cheap Chinese steel imports to protect the domestic market, as China's exports surge due to weak local demand. Vice Chairman Takahiro Mori emphasized the need for anti-dumping measures and highlighted the potential impact on Japan's steel market. Nippon Steel is also advancing its acquisition of U.S. Steel and expanding its investment in coking coal to increase self-sufficiency. Yuka Obayashi, Katya Golubkova, and Ritsuko Shimizu, Reuters, August 29
Second exec to appeal against conviction in 1MDB fraud case. Patrick Mahony, a Swiss-British national convicted in Switzerland for his role in a $1.8 billion fraud against Malaysia's 1MDB, will appeal his six-year prison sentence. Mahony was found guilty of fraud, criminal mismanagement, and money laundering. His co-defendant, Tarek Obaid, was also convicted and will appeal his seven-year sentence. Reuters, August 29
Taiwan delivers protective equipment to Haiti security forces. Taiwan's embassy in Haiti provided the national police and army with protective gear, including helmets and bulletproof vests, to support their fight against gangs. The donation, totaling 800 kits over two years, signifies the strong diplomatic relationship between Haiti and Taiwan. This comes as many countries in the Americas have shifted their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. Reuters, August 29
Indonesia and Australia sign defense agreement. Indonesia and Australia signed a Defense Cooperation Agreement, marking a significant upgrade in their military relationship. The treaty-level agreement, signed by Indonesia’s president-elect Prabowo Subianto and Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, aims to enhance cooperation in areas such as maritime security, counterterrorism, and disaster relief. The two countries also plan their largest joint military exercise in November. Edna Tarigan, AP News, August 29
Putin to travel to Mongolia next week despite an ICC warrant for his arrest. Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Mongolia on September 3, despite an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant over alleged war crimes in Ukraine. This will be his first visit to an ICC member state since the warrant's issuance. Mongolia, bound by the ICC's Rome Statute, is unlikely to arrest him, though enforcement is uncertain. The visit is for a commemoration of a historic Soviet-Mongolian military victory. AP News, August 29
A Hong Kong court convicts 2 journalists in a landmark sedition case. A Hong Kong court convicted former editors Chung Pui-kuen and Patrick Lam of Stand News in a sedition case, marking a significant moment for press freedom in the city. They were charged under a colonial-era law for publishing content deemed seditious against the Chinese and Hong Kong governments. The verdict is viewed as part of a broader crackdown on dissent following the 2019 protests and the enactment of the national security law in 2020. Kanis Leung, AP News, August 29
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol seeks reform of troubled pension system. President Yoon Suk-yeol aims to reform South Korea's pension, medical, education, and labor sectors. He proposed a tiered pension tax system to support the changes, despite likely opposition from Parliament. The push for reform follows concerns that the national pension fund could be depleted by 2055. The Straits Times, August 29
Court rules South Korea climate goals ‘unconstitutional’. South Korea's Constitutional Court declared the nation's climate goals unconstitutional, siding with young activists who argued the targets were insufficient and violated their rights. The ruling demands revised goals to better protect future generations' rights. This landmark decision marks the first in Asia to challenge national greenhouse gas targets, setting a precedent for other courts in the region. The Straits Times, August 29
Top Biden official meets Xi in China visit to manage ties ahead of US presidential election. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, aiming to maintain stable U.S.-China relations ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Sullivan emphasized the importance of avoiding conflict and fostering cooperation, even amid differences. Discussions covered global issues like the Ukraine war and Taiwan, with no agreements reached. The visit marked a step in improving diplomatic and military communications between the two nations. Lim Min Zhang, The Straits Times, August 29
Heavy rain batters Japan after Typhoon Shanshan makes landfall in Kyushu. At least four people were killed and 94 injured as Typhoon Shanshan hit Japan, bringing strong winds and heavy rain after making landfall near Satsumasendai, Kagoshima Prefecture. The storm weakened but continued to impact wide areas of Japan, causing flooding, landslides, and disruptions to transportation. Level 5 emergency warnings were issued in multiple regions. The Japan Times, August 29
South Korea's Yoon vows cooperation with Japan even after Kishida exits. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol committed to maintaining strong relations with Japan, regardless of the successor to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. He emphasized the importance of continued trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan, especially regarding regional security concerns involving China and North Korea. Yoon also noted potential challenges due to historical disputes but stressed the need for mutual trust for future generations. Kyodo News, August 29
S. Korea to expand support for civic groups' radio broadcasting projects for N. Koreans. South Korea plans to increase funding for civic groups' radio broadcasts aimed at North Korean residents to promote access to external information. This is part of a new unification initiative to counter North Korea's restrictive measures against outside information. The government will support content production and personnel training, though specific funding amounts were not disclosed. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, August 29
Sullivan stresses U.S.' commitment to 'complete' Korean Peninsula denuclearization. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan reaffirmed the U.S.' commitment to the "complete" denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula during talks in Beijing with Chinese leaders. This comes amid concerns in South Korea about the omission of this goal in recent U.S. policy platforms, potentially encouraging North Korea to seek recognition as a nuclear power. Sullivan also discussed U.S.-China relations, technology, and other geopolitical issues during his visit. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, August 30
Analysis & Opinion
China Puts the Squeeze on Myanmar’s Tatmadaw. Beijing is increasing pressure on Myanmar's military, the Tatmadaw, a pragmatic shift in policy rather than ideological alignment with authoritarianism. China's key concerns are border stability and the progress of its Belt and Road Initiative projects in Myanmar. Recent actions suggest China's frustration with the Tatmadaw's inability to ensure stability, leading to a more balanced engagement, including limited cooperation with opposition groups. Henry Storey, Lowy Institute, August 29
Long-range Leaders in Melanesia: Why You Need to Know About Them. Long-range leaders, typically village elites residing in urban areas, play a crucial yet often overlooked role in Melanesian governance. They influence local politics and decisions from afar, sometimes for both positive and negative outcomes. Understanding their impact is vital for comprehending community dynamics and geopolitical strategies in the Pacific. Miranda Forsyth and Sinclair Dinnen, Lowy Institute, August 30
US Shifts Nuclear Focus to Counter China’s Growing Arsenal. The U.S. is refocusing its nuclear strategy in response to China's rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal. This follows assessments that China's stockpile could rival those of the U.S. and Russia by 2035. Beijing's nuclear modernization efforts have raised concerns about its commitment to non-proliferation. The U.S. strategy aims to address potential threats from China, Russia, and North Korea. Amrita Jash, Lowy Institute, August 29
Why can't we just let American & Chinese scientists get along? The Science and Technology Agreement (STA) between the U.S. and China, a key framework for bilateral cooperation since 1979, faces uncertainty due to rising geopolitical tensions. Concerns over national security and technology transfer have intensified scrutiny, threatening collaboration in areas like clean energy and public health. The renewal or amendment of the STA is crucial for maintaining scientific cooperation, which could address global challenges and advance mutual interests. Denis Simon, Marcus Stanley, ICAS, August 28
South Korea Back on Track for Nuclear Energy Exports: The Czech Bid and Beyond. South Korea, under President Yoon's leadership, is advancing its nuclear energy exports, winning a major bid in the Czech Republic. The deal, while boosting South Korea's nuclear sector, faces challenges, including a lawsuit from Westinghouse over intellectual property and price negotiations. This development is part of a broader shift as countries increase their nuclear energy focus amidst geopolitical changes and energy security concerns. Haeyoon Kim, Korea Economic Institute of America, August 29
Tectonic Shift Coming on Global Currency Markets? A potential shift by Chinese firms to repatriate up to $2 trillion in dollar-denominated assets could significantly strengthen the yuan against the U.S. dollar. This change may occur if the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, reducing the attractiveness of dollar assets. Such a shift could have broad implications for global currency markets, potentially weakening the dollar and impacting trade dynamics. Nigel Green, Asia Times, August 29
Thailand Buying Gripens to Keep Myanmar in Check. Thailand plans to purchase Sweden's Gripen E/F fighter jets to bolster its air defense amid concerns over Myanmar's military capabilities, supported by China and Russia. The acquisition aligns with Thailand's strategy to modernize its military and maintain a balance of power in the region, especially as Myanmar increases its air incursions into Thai airspace. Gabriel Honrada, Asia Times, August 29
The Urge to Merge: Streamlining US Sanction Lists Targeting China. The U.S. is considering harmonizing its multiple sanction lists targeting Chinese firms to improve effectiveness and close loopholes. This could involve consolidating lists and expanding restrictions, especially under different potential future administrations. Such measures would have significant financial impacts on targeted Chinese entities and broader implications for global markets. Reva Goujon, Juliana Bouchaud, Ciel Qi, Rhodium Group, August 29
China’s Recent Rental Strategy Is a Win for Some, a Strain for Others. China's shift to boost the rental market aims to support the struggling real estate sector by converting unsold apartments into rentals. While wealthy homeowners and local governments benefit, middle- and low-income households face increased rent burdens and reduced consumption. This policy risks worsening economic inequality and decreasing household spending, challenging China's broader economic stability. Yuhan Zhang, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 28
Bhutan Makes a Bold Leap Toward a High-Income Future. Bhutan's 13th Five-Year Plan aims to transform it into a high-income economy by 2034, targeting GDP growth through infrastructure development, innovation, and new industries like digital economies. Challenges include job creation, managing brain drain, and infrastructure limitations. Despite these, Bhutan maintains its Gross National Happiness philosophy while pursuing economic growth. Mark Turner, Dawa Wangchuk, East Asia Forum, August 29
Trade Tensions Rising in Indonesia’s Protectionist Path. Indonesia is increasing protectionist measures, including stricter import inspections and potential tariff hikes on Chinese goods, to protect domestic industries. These actions aim to support local enterprises but risk violating international trade agreements and straining relationships with China. Critics suggest a more collaborative approach with China to maintain a favorable business environment and attract investment. Krisna Gupta, Deasy Pane, East Asia Forum, August 29
The Curious Vatican-Asian Alliance. Pope Francis's upcoming visit to Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, and Singapore reflects his commitment to strengthening diplomatic and spiritual ties with Asia. His journey aims to enhance Catholic-Muslim relations, address climate change, promote peace and reconciliation, and support multipolarity in global affairs. The visit shows the Vatican's unique role in international diplomacy and its efforts to build alliances across religious and geopolitical lines. Victor Gaetan, The Diplomat, August 29
Africa, China, and the Race for Critical Minerals: A New Focus for FOCAC? As China prepares for the upcoming Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit, there is growing attention on critical minerals, a sector crucial to Africa's economy and China's industrial needs. China's engagement in Africa's mining sector is intensifying, driven by strategic interests in securing resources vital for clean energy technologies and global supply chains, amidst rising competition from Western nations. Yixin Yu, The Diplomat, August 30
Will Bangladesh Go the Way of Pakistan? Bangladesh faces severe economic and political challenges following a military-backed regime change and a surge in radical Islamism. The country, once on a path to rapid economic development, is now seeking $6.5 billion in international bailouts amid widespread violence and economic decline. The situation raises concerns about its future stability and comparisons with Pakistan's economic troubles. Brahma Chellaney, The Japan Times, August 29
Should Southeast Asia Jump on the Low-Carbon Hydrogen Industrial Hub Bandwagon? Southeast Asia is evaluating the development of low-carbon hydrogen hubs to support decarbonization efforts and meet net-zero targets. While hydrogen has potential for decarbonizing sectors and creating economic opportunities, challenges include high costs, technological readiness, and geopolitical risks. Regional collaboration and tailored strategies that leverage local advantages are recommended to ensure effective integration of hydrogen in Southeast Asia's energy transition. Christopher Len, FULCRUM, August 29.