Asia Daily: August 26, 2024
News
China Conducts Military Patrols Near Myanmar Border Amid Civil War. China's military is conducting armed patrols in Yunnan province, near the Myanmar border, to address potential security concerns from ongoing civil war fighting in Myanmar. The operations include live-fire drills and joint air-ground patrols to test rapid response capabilities. The patrols follow increased fighting between ethnic militias and Myanmar's military, which has affected areas near China. Beijing has expressed opposition to the conflict's spillover and urged for the safety of Chinese citizens in Myanmar. AP News, August 26
Japan Protests Chinese Airspace Violation Over Danjo Island. Japan's government lodged a protest with Beijing after a Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance plane violated Japanese airspace over Danjo Island, near Kyushu, on Monday. The plane circled above the island for two minutes, prompting Japan to scramble fighter jets to warn it away. Vice Foreign Minister Masataka Okano summoned the acting Chinese Ambassador, Shi Yong, to demand preventive measures against future incidents. The Japanese Self Defense Force reported nearly 669 jet scrambles from April 2023 to March 2024, primarily in response to Chinese aircraft. Japan is increasingly concerned about China's growing military cooperation with Russia and assertive activities near Japanese waters and airspace. AP News, August 26
Philippines says China's South China Sea moves aggressive, illegal. The Philippine government criticized China for its "aggressive, unprofessional and illegal" actions in the South China Sea, citing recent incidents involving Chinese vessels blocking, ramming, and using water cannons against Philippine vessels. Philippine Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro called China's actions "patently illegal." The Philippines urged China to return to constructive dialogue but remains prepared for continued confrontations. China maintains its territorial claims and accuses the Philippines of dangerous maneuvers. Reuters, August 26
Indonesia, U.S. Hold Annual Joint Military Exercises. Indonesia and the United States have commenced two weeks of annual military exercises, involving over 4,500 personnel. The exercises, known as Super Garuda Shield, are held in East Java and include participation from several countries and simulations like cyber threat response. Officials stated that these drills aim to build trust and improve military cooperation, not specifically address South China Sea issues. Reuters, August 26
Philippines Reports Two New Cases of Milder Mpox Variant. The Philippines confirmed two new cases of the milder clade 2 variant of mpox, bringing the total active cases to three. Health Minister Teodoro Herbosa noted ongoing local transmission in Metro Manila. The World Health Organization recently declared mpox a global public health emergency due to its spread in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The virus causes flu-like symptoms and skin lesions and is particularly risky for vulnerable populations. Reuters, August 26
China's Didi in Talks to Sell Smart Auto Assets to State-Backed NavInfo's Unit, Say Sources. Didi Global is negotiating to sell its smart driving and cockpit assets to AutoAi, a unit of NavInfo, in exchange for a stake. The deal, valued at around 500 million yuan, marks Didi's shift away from the competitive electric vehicle market. Didi plans to invest over 200 million yuan in the currently loss-making AutoAi to strengthen partnerships in ride-hailing and intelligent driving. Reuters, August 26
US-ROK Marines Train to Counter-Invade North Korea in Case of Attack. U.S. and South Korean marines are conducting the Ssangyong 2024 amphibious exercises, aimed at preparing for a potential counter-invasion if North Korea attacks. The drills, running from August 26 to September 7, include amphibious landings and air drills over the Yellow Sea. Ifang Bremer, NK News, August 26
Russian Government VIP Plane Makes Unannounced Trip to North Korea. A VIP Russian government jet made a secretive trip to North Korea, likely carrying a trade delegation. This marks the second such clandestine flight this month, hinting at "sensitive" exchanges between the two countries. The increased air traffic suggests deeper, undisclosed discussions are underway between Moscow and Pyongyang amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Anton Sokolin, NK News, August 26
Schools in Singapore Impose Phone Bans to Reduce Distractions, Rekindle Social Interaction. Several schools in Singapore have implemented bans on mobile phones during school hours to minimize distractions and encourage face-to-face social interaction among students. The initiative aims to improve focus in class and promote healthier communication habits by reducing students' dependence on digital devices. Educators have observed that the bans have led to increased engagement and participation in school activities. Parents and teachers generally support the move, although some concerns remain about managing emergencies and maintaining communication. Elisha Tushara, The Straits Times, August 26
Typhoon Shanshan Approaches Western Japan, Authorities Issue Warnings. Typhoon Shanshan is approaching western Japan, prompting authorities to issue warnings for heavy rain, strong winds, and potential flooding. The Japan Meteorological Agency has forecasted that the typhoon will bring severe weather conditions to the Kyushu and Shikoku regions. Residents are advised to stay alert, prepare for possible evacuations, and avoid unnecessary travel. Transportation services, including flights and train operations, may also be disrupted as the typhoon nears. Yukana Inoue, The Japan Times, August 26
Taiwan Should Call for UN Hearing on Resolution, Nikki Haley Says. Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley has urged Taiwan to call for a UN hearing on Resolution 2758, which recognizes the People's Republic of China as "the only legitimate representative of China to the United Nations." Haley argues that the resolution does not address Taiwan's status and that a hearing could clarify Taiwan's international standing. She emphasized that Taiwan deserves a more prominent role in international organizations and that the U.S. should support efforts to challenge China's claims over Taiwan. Fang Wei-li and Jonathan Chin, Taipei Times, August 25
Canada Imposes 100% Tariff on Chinese-Made EVs, Matching U.S. and EU Moves. Canada announced a 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles, aligning with similar U.S. and European tariffs. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cited concerns over China's unfair market advantages, supported by U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan. Canada will also impose a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum. The only Chinese-made EVs currently imported into Canada are from Tesla's Shanghai factory. The move may provoke retaliation from China, potentially targeting other industries. AP News, August 26
Analysis & Opinion
Up for Grabs: Koizumi and Ishiba Battle for Grassroots Supporters, While Takaichi Looms. A series of recent polls reveal the dynamics of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race in Japan. Koizumi Shinjirō and Ishiba Shigeru are competing closely for the lead among party supporters, with Takaichi Sanae in a solid third position. Other candidates, including Kobayashi Takayuki, Kamikawa Yōko, and Kōno Tarō, trail behind with support ranging from 5% to 7%. No clear frontrunner has emerged, as the field remains divided. Polls show varying results: Koizumi leads Ishiba in some, while others favor Ishiba, particularly among older voters. Takaichi remains a potential contender, capable of advancing to the runoff despite uncertainties about her support among lawmakers. The polls also indicate that economic policy is a top priority for voters, followed by social security and campaign finance reforms. Qualities desired in the next LDP leader include trustworthiness, reform-mindedness, and strong communication skills. The leadership race remains fluid, with party voters yet to rally decisively around a single candidate. Tobias Harris,
, August 26The Benefits of Connection: India's Linkages with Bangladesh Withstand Local Unrest. India and Bangladesh have strengthened their economic ties through infrastructure projects like railways, land ports, and pipelines. Despite recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, including Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's resignation, bilateral cooperation remains strong. Swift reopening of trade routes after temporary closures shows resilience in their relationship. India's investments are crucial for regional connectivity and economic interdependence, but maintaining influence requires ongoing engagement and adapting to regional dynamics. Riya Sinha, Lowy Institute, August 26
The Down-Low on Deportations and Drugs in Tonga. The increase in deportations from Australia to Tonga is exacerbating the nation's drug problems and contributing to transnational crime. Tonga has seen over 1,000 deportees since 1998, many of whom lack proper reintegration support and are at risk of reoffending. The lack of sustained reintegration efforts complicates regional security and increases crime rates, requiring a comprehensive response from both local and international stakeholders. Henrietta McNeill, Lowy Institute, August 26
A Diplomatic Early Warning: Resolving the Recurring Historical Grievance Litigation Between South Korea and Japan. The ongoing litigation over historical grievances between South Korea and Japan remains a critical issue, affecting bilateral relations and regional stability. Recent court rulings in Seoul regarding forced labor claims against Japanese companies highlight the tensions. Efforts to resolve these disputes include the Korean Fund for compensating plaintiffs, but skepticism persists due to a lack of perceived accountability from Japan. A more collaborative approach involving both nations' industries and governments could pave the way for a sustainable resolution. Cornelius Cornelssen, Council on Foreign Relations, August 26
What Kishida’s Resignation Portends for Japanese Politics. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's resignation is attributed to domestic challenges, including a political slush fund scandal and public distrust over ties between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Unification Church. His departure shows the internal divisions within the LDP and raises questions about the party's future leadership and its ability to regain public trust and enact reforms. Kishida's resignation opens a leadership race with no clear successor, reflecting a fluid political landscape. Ben Ascione, East Asia Forum, August 26
Russia’s Treaty with North Korea Creates New Fault Lines in East Asia. Russia's recent strategic partnership treaty with North Korea marks a shift in regional geopolitics. This alliance aims to counter U.S.-led initiatives in East Asia and reflects Russia's pivot to Eastern partnerships amid Western sanctions. North Korea benefits from technological and military support, while China, although supportive, remains cautious to avoid escalating regional tensions. Hao Nan, East Asia Forum, August 26
Seoul Is Importing Domestic Workers From the Philippines. South Korea has launched a pilot project to import Filipino domestic workers to alleviate the burden of childcare and address its low birthrate. The initiative faces criticism over wage disputes and potential cultural challenges, with concerns about the fair treatment of foreign workers. Despite comparisons to Singapore and Hong Kong, the project's effectiveness in boosting birthrates remains doubtful due to its high costs and limited impact on deeper societal issues. Haeyoon Kim, The Diplomat, August 26
The Rise, Decline, and Possible Resurrection of China’s Confucius Institutes. The Confucius Institutes, initially successful in promoting Chinese culture globally, faced backlash and closures, particularly in the U.S., due to concerns over propaganda and academic freedom. In response, China has overhauled its strategy, decentralizing management to revive its soft power efforts. The future of these institutes depends on geopolitical dynamics and rebuilding trust with Western nations. Si-yuan Li and Kenneth King, The Diplomat, August 24
US Racing to Shield Indo-Pacific Bases from China's Missiles. The United States is improving its Indo-Pacific base defenses to counter missile threats from China and North Korea. The U.S. Air Force’s Agile Combat Employment (ACE) strategy focuses on resilient operations, pre-positioned equipment, and improved base infrastructure. Efforts include deploying advanced radar systems to Guam, fortifying defenses, and establishing backup facilities in the Northern Mariana Islands to ensure strategic readiness and adaptability against emerging threats. Gabriel Honrada, Asia Times, August 26
Yoon Suk-yeol’s Upcoming Pension Reform Speech Promises Major Changes. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is set to deliver a speech on pension reform, expected to address the sustainability of the national pension fund and intergenerational equity. The proposed reforms may include tiered contributions and a stabilization mechanism to ensure long-term viability. Previous attempts at reform have faced political obstacles and failed to gain consensus. John Lee, Korea Pro, August 26.
South-South Solidarity in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian countries are increasingly engaging in intra-regional aid as a form of South-South cooperation to assert their independence from Global North influences. While the volume of aid is still small compared to international contributions, countries like Thailand and Vietnam are leading efforts to support neighbors with infrastructure, humanitarian aid, and technical assistance. This strategy is part of a broader move to bolster regional solidarity and political autonomy. Grace Stanhope, FULCRUM, August 26
Dynastic Politics Provokes Nationwide Demonstrations. Protests erupted across Indonesia against perceived efforts by President Joko Widodo to establish a political dynasty, following a controversial bill annulling a court ruling on electoral eligibility. Demonstrations involved diverse groups, expressing anger over Widodo's maneuvering to position family members in key roles. The protests show public discontent with perceived erosion of democratic principles and political manipulation. Max Lane, FULCRUM, August 26