Asia Daily: August 22, 2024
News
China, Russia plot course for Arctic cooperation, shipping routes to counter West. China and Russia moved closer to an agreement on developing Arctic shipping routes during Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Moscow. The two nations also pledged to strengthen economic cooperation, including in oil, gas, and emerging sectors like science and technology, to counter Western pressures. Both countries condemned unilateral sanctions and agreed to increase trade in their own currencies, further reducing reliance on the US dollar. Kawala Xie, South China Morning Post, August 22
TEPCO halts attempt to extract melted fuel at Fukushima nuclear plant. Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) paused its first attempt to remove melted fuel from Fukushima Daiichi's No. 2 reactor due to errors in the setup of retrieval equipment. The trial, intended to collect 3 grams of fuel debris, was delayed after pipes were assembled in the wrong sequence. The error has prompted TEPCO to investigate the cause and ensure future operations run smoothly. The fuel extraction is crucial for decommissioning the plant after the 2011 nuclear disaster. Kyodo News, August 22
Nepal lifts its ban on TikTok imposed for disrupting social harmony. Nepal's government has lifted the ban on TikTok, originally imposed in November due to concerns that it disrupted social harmony and spread indecent material. The decision, announced after a cabinet meeting, was influenced by Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Oli, who directed that all social media platforms be treated equally. The government also requires social media companies to register in Nepal, establish a local office, and comply with national laws. TikTok had been under scrutiny in several countries due to data privacy concerns. Binaj Gurubacharya, AP News, August 22
Heads will roll over Alice Guo escape: Marcos. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has promised repercussions for those responsible for allowing former mayor Alice Guo, who has alleged ties to Chinese criminal syndicates, to flee the Philippines amid an ongoing investigation. Guo's escape has drawn significant criticism, and Marcos emphasized that those involved will be held accountable. Senate hearings are currently probing her activities and the circumstances surrounding her departure from the country. Kristina Maralit and Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, August 22
Kazakhstan accredits chargé d'affaires of Afghanistan. On August 21, Kazakhstan's Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alibek Bakayev, officially accredited Muhammad Ur Rehman Rahmani as the chargé d'affaires of Afghanistan during a ceremony in Astana. This step is part of Kazakhstan's broader strategy to engage with the Taliban-led government to enhance trade, economic, and humanitarian cooperation. Earlier, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev removed the Taliban from Kazakhstan’s list of terrorist organizations to facilitate these efforts. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, August 22
U.S. expected to reaffirm N.K. denuclearization after rival parties make no mention of it: unification minister. South Korea’s Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho expressed confidence that the incoming U.S. administration will reaffirm its commitment to the denuclearization of North Korea, despite both major U.S. political parties omitting the goal from their platforms. This comes amid concerns that Pyongyang might interpret the omission as a sign of potential U.S. recognition of North Korea as a nuclear power. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, August 22
Vietnamese, Chinese leaders agree to build a community of shared future. Vietnam's top leaders met with Chinese President Xi Jinping to advance their bilateral relationship, focusing on six areas: political trust, economic cooperation, cultural exchanges, maritime and land border stability, multilateral cooperation, and joint global initiatives. The meeting emphasized strengthening ties and deepening strategic coordination between the two nations, aiming to build a "community of shared future" through enhanced cooperation. Vietnam News, August 22
Indonesia shelves plan to revise election law as protests rage. Indonesia's parliament has postponed changes to electoral laws amid protests in Jakarta, where demonstrators set fires and clashed with security forces. The proposed revisions, backed by allies of outgoing President Joko Widodo and President-elect Prabowo Subianto, aimed to reverse a court ruling that could allow government critic Anies Baswedan to run for Jakarta governor. The delay means the new parliament will revisit the changes, leaving the November regional elections unaffected for now. Ananda Teresia and Stanley Widianto, Reuters, August 22
China-Thailand joint military exercises have ‘all elements needed for a small-scale war’. China and Thailand began Falcon Strike 2024, their most complex joint military exercises to date, involving special forces, warplanes, and helicopters. The drills, taking place at Udorn Royal Thai Air Force Base, simulate realistic combat scenarios, including cross-border support and force deployment. Analysts note the exercises’ significant shift towards actual combat readiness. This drill is part of China's broader effort to enhance defense ties in Southeast Asia. Sylvie Zhuang and Hayley Wong, South China Morning Post, August 22
Lao government launches detailed plan to tackle inflation, stabilize currency by year-end. The Lao government unveiled a comprehensive plan to combat inflation and stabilize the national currency, the kip, by the end of 2024. The plan includes tightening monetary policy, increasing foreign reserves, reducing public debt, and improving supply chains. The government is also focused on supporting domestic production and trade to enhance economic stability. These efforts aim to restore public confidence in the currency and ensure long-term financial resilience. Phontham Visapra, The Laotian Times, August 22
Taiwan president to visit frontline islands at centre of China tensions. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te will visit the Kinmen islands on Friday, his first visit since taking office, amid heightened tensions with China. Kinmen, located near the Chinese coast, has been a focal point of military friction between Taipei and Beijing. Lai's visit marks the 66th anniversary of the 1958 Taiwan Strait crisis, where Taiwan fended off Chinese forces. Lai emphasized Taiwan's resilience against Chinese threats but reiterated his openness to dialogue. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, August 22
PLA sends advanced landing craft for ‘high-intensity’ drills amid South China Sea tensions. The Chinese navy conducted high-intensity combat drills in the South China Sea with its advanced Type 071 landing ship, Jinggang Shan. The drills included offensive and defensive maneuvers, air defense, anti-submarine exercises, and simulated battlefield rescues. The exercises come amid escalating tensions between China and the Philippines, particularly around the disputed shoals in the South China Sea, where recent confrontations have occurred. Zhao Ziwen, South China Morning Post, August 22
S. Korea will expand free trade deals with emerging markets: PM. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo announced plans to expand South Korea's free trade agreements with emerging markets in Asia and Africa to enhance its export-driven economy and supply chain resilience. The government aims to complete ongoing FTA negotiations with Mongolia and launch talks with Pakistan, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Kenya, and Morocco. South Korea also seeks to strengthen multilateral trade ties in the Indo-Pacific region and counter global protectionism by collaborating with like-minded countries. Kang Yoon-seung, Yonhap News Agency, August 22
Top legislator receives Lao NA vice chairman in Ha Noi. National Assembly Chairman Vuong Dinh Hue met with Lao Vice Chairman Sommad Pholsena in Hanoi to strengthen legislative cooperation. The leaders discussed enhancing bilateral ties, focusing on legislative exchanges, economic collaboration, and regional security. Hue emphasized the importance of legislative bodies in fostering the Vietnam-Laos relationship, while Pholsena expressed gratitude for Vietnam's continued support. Vietnam News, August 22
Kazakhstan summons Belarusian ambassador after Lukashenko's criticism. Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry summoned the Belarusian ambassador after Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko criticized Kazakhstan's relationship with Russia during a televised interview. Lukashenko claimed Kazakhstan was benefiting from Russia without offering adequate support, particularly in light of Russia's international challenges. In response, Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry emphasized its commitment to maintaining balanced foreign relations and addressing disagreements through diplomatic channels. Stephen M. Bland, The Times of Central Asia, August 22
Analysis & Opinion
A Glimpse into Indonesia's Nickel Policy. Indonesia's nickel policy, focused on downstream processing and banning raw nickel exports, has attracted Chinese investment but brought challenges, particularly in Southeast Sulawesi. While the industry has spurred economic growth, concerns about environmental harm, unsafe working conditions, and the limited local benefits persist. The involvement of international partners is seen as crucial for ensuring a sustainable and equitable development of the sector. Hilman Palaon and Robert Walker, Lowy Institute, August 23
Economic Diplomacy: Playing Defence with Prabowo. Indonesia’s president-elect, Prabowo Subianto, has focused on strengthening security ties with Australia while economic relations lag. Despite recent defence agreements, economic cooperation remains slow, with longstanding Australian companies withdrawing from Indonesia. Prabowo's emphasis on maintaining nationalistic economic policies may challenge future economic ties, despite potential areas for cooperation. Australian officials express frustration, urging the private sector to engage more actively in Southeast Asia. Greg Earl, Lowy Institute, August 22.
Southeast Asia’s Great Haze: Laggards and Leaders. Indonesia, the largest contributor to Southeast Asia’s haze problem, was the last ASEAN country to ratify the Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution in 2014, despite being a major source of the pollution. The delay was driven by strong domestic interests, particularly from the palm oil industry, and weak political leadership. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono eventually ratified the agreement to bolster Indonesia’s international reputation. Pia Dannhauer, Lowy Institute, August 22
Media Manipulation and Strategic Tension: The Philippines' Role in the South China Sea Dispute. The Philippines has employed a sophisticated media strategy to shape international opinion on the South China Sea dispute, portraying itself as a victim of Chinese aggression. This narrative, supported by the United States, has heightened regional tensions and complicated efforts for peaceful resolution, making compromise difficult. The Philippines’ actions, including military provocations, are seen as contributing to instability in Southeast Asia. Nong Hong, Institute for China-America Studies, August 22
Japan Must Do Much More for Taiwan. Japan acknowledges the severe risks of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan but has done little to bolster Taiwan’s defense. Despite symbolic political visits to Taiwan, Japan’s actual support remains limited. Tokyo has avoided direct military cooperation with Taiwan, and its contributions have been minimal compared to its efforts in the Philippines. This inaction raises concerns, especially given Taiwan’s strategic importance to Japan’s security. Grant Newsham, Asia Times, August 22
The Future of K-Power: What South Korea Must Do After Peaking. South Korea's global influence through "K-Power" is at a critical juncture, with its cultural exports like K-pop and K-dramas reaching their peak. To sustain and expand its soft power, South Korea must innovate in its creative industries, diversify cultural content, and increase government support. Additionally, addressing internal challenges, such as labor issues and political interference, is essential for maintaining its competitive edge. Chung Min Lee, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 22
India Picks Its Friends as It Treads Between Russia and the West. India carefully navigates its foreign policy between its traditional ally Russia and Western nations. This balancing act involves strategic partnerships with both sides, aiming to secure its national interests while managing global geopolitical tensions. India's approach shows its desire for autonomy in foreign relations, avoiding full alignment with any single power bloc amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Amit Ranjan, East Asia Forum, August 22
What Will Come After the July Massacre in Bangladesh? The aftermath of the July massacre in Bangladesh raises concerns about the nation's political stability and security. The incident, which has deepened fears of escalating violence, shows the urgent need for political reform and improved governance. The response of the Bangladeshi government will be crucial in determining whether the country can move toward greater stability or face further unrest. Saimum Parvez, East Asia Forum, August 22
Japan Puts All Its Eggs in One Basket to Combat Fertility Crisis. Japan's government is heavily investing in measures to address its fertility crisis, focusing on policies like financial incentives for families, child care support, and promoting work-life balance. However, these efforts may be insufficient or misdirected, as they overlook broader societal issues such as gender inequality and economic insecurity that contribute to low birth rates. Annika Peterson, East Asia Forum, August 22
Trump 2.0 Would Get Mixed Responses in the Indo-Pacific. A second Trump presidency would likely provoke mixed reactions across the Indo-Pacific region. While some countries might welcome his focus on security alliances and countering China, others may be wary of his unpredictable foreign policy and its potential to disrupt regional stability. Derek Grossman, The Diplomat, August 22
Understanding the Significance of China’s Antimony Export Controls. China’s decision to impose export controls on antimony, a critical mineral used in semiconductors and defense, shows its strategic leverage over global supply chains. As the world's largest producer, China's move could disrupt industries reliant on this mineral, affecting countries like the U.S. and Japan. This action is viewed as part of China's broader strategy to counter Western pressures and assert control over key resources. Gregory Wischer and Morgan Bazilian, The Diplomat, August 22
Shin Won-sik: Hawkish Ex-General as National Security Adviser. Shin Won-sik, a former South Korean general known for his hawkish stance on North Korea, has been appointed as the National Security Adviser. His appointment signals a potential shift towards a more aggressive defense policy. Shin’s military background and strong views on national security suggest a tough approach in dealing with North Korean threats and strengthening alliances with key partners like the United States. Jeongmin Kim, Korea Pro, August 22
South Korea’s Job Numbers Grew in First Quarter, But COVID-19 Surge Casts Shadow. South Korea saw job growth in the first quarter of 2024, showing a recovering economy. However, a surge in COVID-19 cases poses risks to this progress, potentially affecting employment and economic stability. The government faces the challenge of balancing economic recovery with public health measures to maintain job growth momentum. Korea Pro, August 22
Cultivated Meat in Southeast Asia: Climate Change Provides Food for Thought. Cultivated meat, produced through cellular agriculture, is gaining traction in Southeast Asia as a potential solution to climate change and food security challenges. This alternative protein source could reduce greenhouse gas emissions and resource use associated with traditional livestock farming. However, challenges like high production costs and consumer acceptance must be addressed for its widespread adoption in the region. Damon Chee and Elyssa Kaur Ludher, Fulcrum, August 22
La Niña: Boon or Bane for Southeast Asia’s Food Security? La Niña's impact on Southeast Asia is mixed, offering both opportunities and challenges for food security. While it can bring beneficial rains to some areas, boosting crop yields, it may also cause extreme weather events like floods and droughts, disrupting agriculture. Countries in the region must prepare for these potential outcomes to safeguard food production and supply chains. Elyssa Kaur Ludher, Fulcrum, August 22