Asia Daily: August 20, 2024
News
Philippines says ex-mayor accused of Chinese crime links has fled the country. Alice Guo, a former mayor under investigation for alleged ties to Chinese criminal syndicates, has reportedly fled the Philippines, traveling through Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia. The Presidential Anti-Organised Crime Commission is pushing to cancel her passport. Guo, who faces a Senate arrest warrant, denies the allegations and claims she is still in the Philippines. Her case has drawn significant attention amid rising tensions between Manila and Beijing over territorial disputes. Karen Lema, Reuters, August 20
Taiwan conducts live-fire missile drills as China ramps up military threats. Taiwan's military conducted live-fire drills on Tuesday at the Jiupeng Military Base in southern Taiwan, launching Sky Bow III anti-ballistic missiles and U.S.-made Patriot PAC II missiles. The drills were a response to increased military activities by China, which claims Taiwan as its territory. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reported successful hits on all targets. The exercise comes as Taiwan strengthens its defenses, including extending mandatory military service and purchasing advanced weapons from the U.S. AP News, August 20
India's top court creates safety task force after rape, murder of doctor. India's Supreme Court has established a task force to enhance safety measures following the rape and murder of a doctor in Rajasthan. The task force will review the existing security protocols for women and recommend improvements to prevent such incidents. The court also ordered compensation for the victim's family and called for immediate action from state authorities to address the rising concerns over women’s safety in India. Al Jazeera, August 20
Party official affirms success of Vietnamese leader's China visit. Vietnamese Party General Secretary To Lam's recent state visit to China was deemed highly successful, as noted by Le Hoai Trung, head of the CPV's Commission for External Relations. The visit included key discussions with Chinese leaders on deepening cooperation in diplomacy, defense, and public security. Both countries signed 16 cooperation agreements and pledged to strengthen connectivity in infrastructure and trade. Plans for the 2025 "Year of Viet Nam-China Humanistic Exchange" were also agreed upon. Vietnam News, August 20
Uzbekistan targets economic growth and poverty eradication. Uzbekistan has set ambitious goals to eradicate poverty and achieve high-middle-income status by 2030. The government is focusing on attracting foreign direct investment, especially in strategic sectors like mining, energy, and infrastructure, as part of its National Investment Program for 2023-2025. This program includes nearly 800 projects worth $55.4 billion aimed at creating jobs and stabilizing economic growth. However, challenges such as complex regulations and limitations on foreign ownership persist. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, August 20
Japan, India hold "2-plus-2" ministerial security talks. The foreign and defense ministers of Japan and India met in New Delhi for their third "two-plus-two" security dialogue, focusing on enhancing defense cooperation amid rising Chinese military activities in the Indo-Pacific. They discussed potential exports of Japanese communication antennas for Indian warships, a first under a 2015 defense technology transfer agreement. The talks also reinforced Japan and India’s commitment to the Quad alliance with the U.S. and Australia, as both nations face ongoing territorial disputes with China. Kyodo News, August 20
Japanese senior deputy minister for foreign affairs welcomed in Hà Nội. Vietnamese Deputy Minister of National Defence Hoang Xuan Chien hosted Japan's Senior Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs Funakoshi Takehiro in Ha Noi to discuss strengthening bilateral defense cooperation. The meeting focused on advancing joint initiatives in areas such as maritime security, technology transfer, and war legacy issues. Both sides expressed a commitment to deepening collaboration to enhance regional peace and stability. Vietnam News, August 20
S. Korea, U.S. begin large-scale joint air drills. South Korea and the United States launched a major five-day combined air training exercise involving 200 aircraft, including South Korea's F-15K and KF-16 fighters and the U.S.'s F-16 and A-10 fighters. This exercise, part of the Ulchi Freedom Shield, is the first to involve multiple fighter wings conducting 120 consecutive hours of air drills, covering air, land, and sea operations. The training is designed to enhance defense capabilities against potential enemy aircraft infiltrations. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, August 20
Beijing seeks to boost military cooperation with Vietnam despite South China Sea dispute. China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun urged Vietnam to enhance military cooperation during a meeting with his Vietnamese counterpart, Phan Van Giang, in Beijing. Despite their ongoing territorial dispute in the South China Sea, both sides emphasized the importance of improving cooperation in training, joint exercises, and international collaboration. The meeting followed discussions between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Vietnam’s new leader, To Lam, aimed at deepening bilateral ties William Zheng, South China Morning Post, August 20
'We're going nowhere' - Thai opposition figure says court interventions must stop. Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of Thailand's dissolved Move Forward Party, called for judicial reform to prevent political interventions after recent court rulings dissolved his party and dismissed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin. Pita, banned from politics for 10 years, emphasized the need for independent institutions and plans to return to politics. Despite setbacks, he remains a popular figure and will continue his advocacy while pursuing further studies and writing a memoir. Panu Wongcha-um, Reuters, August 20.
India, Malaysia to expand ties, defense cooperation as Kuala Lumpur tries to move closer to Beijing. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim agreed to strengthen economic and defense ties during Anwar’s visit to India. The leaders signed agreements in areas including digital technologies, tourism, and military collaboration. Anwar's visit, his first since taking office, also included discussions on expanding trade and investment between the two countries, which currently have strong bilateral trade valued at $20 billion. AP News, August 20
Japan PM Kishida eyes visit to South Korea in early Sept. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is considering a visit to South Korea in early September for talks with President Yoon Suk Yeol. The visit aims to enhance bilateral cooperation on security and economic matters, particularly in light of North Korea's nuclear threats and its growing ties with Russia. The two leaders are expected to promote "future-oriented" cooperation, coinciding with the 60th anniversary of normalized relations between the nations. Kyodo News, August 20
PM Wong congratulates Paetongtarn Shinawatra on her appointment as Thai prime minister. Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong congratulated Paetongtarn Shinawatra on becoming Thailand's youngest prime minister. In his message, Wong emphasized the strong bilateral relations between Singapore and Thailand, expressing hope for continued collaboration in key areas such as clean energy, sustainability, and the digital economy. He also extended an invitation for Paetongtarn and her husband to visit Singapore. Channel News Asia, August 20
Japan ruling party chief vote set for Sept. 27 to replace Kishida. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has scheduled its presidential election for September 27 to choose a successor to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who will step down at the end of his term. The race is expected to include prominent figures like Digital Minister Taro Kono and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi. The winner will likely become Japan’s next prime minister, given the LDP’s dominance in the House of Representatives. Kyodo News, August 20
ndonesia, Australia complete defense cooperation agreement negotiations. Indonesia and Australia have concluded negotiations on a new defense cooperation agreement aimed at enhancing bilateral security ties. The agreement, expected to be signed soon, will focus on areas such as military training, joint exercises, and defense industry collaboration. Both nations see this as a step toward strengthening regional stability, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. The finalized agreement marks a significant milestone in the ongoing strategic partnership between the two countries. Antara News, August 20
Golden Triangle seizes telecom fraud network in major crackdown. Authorities in the Golden Triangle Special Economic Zone conducted a significant operation on August 12, dismantling a telecommunications fraud network and arresting 771 individuals from 15 nationalities. The operation, led by Bokeo Public Security and involving Laos and Chinese security forces, uncovered over 2,600 devices used in online scams. Lao nationals were released with warnings, while Chinese and other foreign detainees were handed over to their respective authorities. Namfon Chanthavong, The Laotian Times, August 20
Chinese firms seek investment opportunities in high-potential sectors. A delegation of 12 Chinese companies, led by Zhao Yudong of Everbright Group, visited Phnom Penh on August 20 to explore investment opportunities in Cambodia. Prime Minister Hun Manet welcomed their interest, particularly in sectors like clean energy, health, agriculture, and finance. Manet emphasized Cambodia’s favorable investment climate and encouraged collaboration with government ministries to further develop these sectors, which align with the country's strategic priorities for economic growth. Ry Sochan, The Phnom Penh Post, August 20
S. Korea, U.S. begin large-scale joint air drills. South Korea and the United States have launched major joint air exercises involving five fighter wings, running through Friday. The exercise features around 200 aircraft, including South Korea’s F-15K, FA-50, and KF-16 fighters, alongside U.S. F-16 and A-10 fighters. This marks the first time multiple fighter wings from both nations are participating in continuous 24-hour air drills, focusing on enhancing multi-domain air operations, counter-air defense, and interdiction capabilities. Lee Minji, Yonhap News, August 20
Myanmar junta forms nationwide militia panel amid mounting losses. Myanmar's military junta has established a new nationwide militia panel, chaired by the junta’s border affairs minister, to train, arm, and supply militias across the country at village and ward levels. The panel will manage logistics, recruitment, and military training for these militias, which will be provided with high-tech weapons. This effort comes as the junta faces increasing resistance and aims to strengthen local defenses amid ongoing conflicts. The Irrawaddy, August 20
Pro-China leader on course to retain Kiribati presidency. President Taneti Maamau, known for his pro-China stance, is leading the race for re-election in Kiribati after the first round of voting in the national elections. Maamau has strengthened ties with Beijing since shifting the country’s allegiance from Taiwan to China in 2019, a move that has significantly influenced Kiribati's foreign policy. The final outcome will be determined in the second round, where Maamau is expected to consolidate his position against a smaller field of challengers. PINA, August 20
TPP’s Ko denies Control Yuan’s report. Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman Ko Wen-je refuted claims by the Control Yuan that his campaign office submitted incomplete donation reports during the 2024 presidential campaign. While the TPP acknowledged some accounting errors, Ko’s office insisted the discrepancies were corrected by July. The Control Yuan had flagged the report in April, leading to a review and corrections. The TPP has taken disciplinary action against those involved, including suspending and expelling key members associated with the incident. Lee I-chia, Taipei Times, August 20
Analysis & Opinion
Shinjiro Dreams of the Premiership. Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, is seen as a potential future leader of Japan. Despite his political pedigree and initial popularity, Koizumi's career has encountered setbacks, including a lukewarm performance as environment minister and limited engagement in leadership contests. Tobias S. Harris,
, August 20.Looking Back at Jokowi’s Decade of Resource Nationalism. Indonesian President Joko Widodo's tenure has been marked by a focus on resource nationalism, aiming to increase domestic control over natural resources and promote industrialization. Key achievements include nationalizing major mining assets, banning raw nickel exports, and fostering a growing nickel processing industry. While these policies have bolstered economic growth and local industries, they have also raised environmental concerns, increased reliance on Chinese investment, and led to uneven regional development. Eve Warburton, Lowy Institute, August 20
Australia–ASEAN Maritime Cooperation: A Focus on the Whole Risks Losing Sight of the Parts. Australia's maritime cooperation with ASEAN is at risk of becoming less effective by adopting a one-size-fits-all approach. Despite shared goals for the region, ASEAN members have diverse needs and capacities, particularly in maritime security and environmental issues. Tailored, bilateral strategies are essential for Australia to effectively support each country, addressing challenges such as illegal fishing, maritime pollution, and search and rescue operations. Thư Nguyễn Hoàng Anh, Lowy Institute, August 20
Taiwan Needs to Preserve the Globalized Semiconductor Industry Before It Becomes Too Late. Taiwan’s semiconductor industry faces challenges due to U.S.-China decoupling, which threatens its market share in both legacy and cutting-edge chips. With increasing competition from China and the U.S., Taiwan must actively protect its industry from U.S. export controls, leverage its role in the global supply chain, and avoid fully aligning with Washington to maintain its semiconductor edge. Wyatt Huang, Institute for China-America Studies, August 20
Integrating Southeast and South Asia through Regional Institutions. Southeast and South Asia have seen limited trade and investment growth due to South Asia's minimal participation in global supply chains. Regional institutions like BIMSTEC and SASEC offer opportunities to bridge this gap by enhancing cooperation and reducing trade costs. However, challenges such as slow implementation and political instability, especially in Myanmar, hinder progress. Strengthening ties between these institutions could promote greater integration between the two regions. Jayant Menon, East Asia Forum, August 20
Thai Court Takes the Reins to Preserve the Reign. Thailand’s Constitutional Court dissolved the Move Forward Party and removed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin from office, effectively halting any reforms, particularly those related to the monarchy. The court's actions reinforce the status quo and establish it as the ultimate authority in Thai politics, raising concerns about its overreach and the suppression of progressive movements. The political landscape remains tense as the progressive movement continues to push for change. William J Jones, East Asia Forum, August 20
What Japan Can Teach the World About Disaster Risk Reduction. Japan's disaster risk reduction strategies focus on community involvement, continuous improvement, and robust social infrastructure. These approaches, which have proven effective in minimizing casualties during major disasters, are not culturally unique and can be adopted globally. Japan's experience, particularly in response to earthquakes and tsunamis, serves as a model for improving resilience in other countries facing similar risks. Daniel Aldrich, East Asia Forum, August 20
Will South Korea’s Defense Industry Boom Change U.S.-ROK Military Relations? South Korea's rapidly growing defense industry aims to increase security independence and become a top global arms exporter by 2027. Despite this expansion, the U.S.-ROK military alliance is expected to remain strong, with South Korea continuing to rely on the U.S. for key defense needs like troop support and a nuclear umbrella. The growth in South Korea’s defense sector could lead to increased cooperation with the U.S., particularly in areas like shipbuilding. Hunter Slingbaum and Kaitlyn King, Stimson Center, August 19
Can the Bangladesh Police Recover? The Bangladesh police force faces a crisis of legitimacy after being weaponized by the Awami League government. Widespread violence during protests and deep-rooted corruption have eroded public trust. Following the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the police force collapsed under public anger, leading to mass attacks on police stations. The new interim government is now attempting reforms, including changing police uniforms and leadership, to rebuild trust, but challenges remain significant. Mehedi Hasan Marof and Saqlain Rizve, The Diplomat, August 20
The Geopolitics of the AIIB’s $5 Billion Investment Pledge to Vietnam. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) pledged $5 billion to Vietnam, marking a geopolitical move amid the growing U.S.-China rivalry. This investment is aimed at bolstering Vietnam's infrastructure, particularly in energy and transportation, which increases China's influence in the region. The AIIB’s involvement in Vietnam’s development shows its role as a tool for China’s broader economic and strategic goals in Southeast Asia. James Guild, The Diplomat, August 20
Kim Jong Un’s Reported Use of South Korean Words Is Exaggerated, Experts Say. Reports claiming that Kim Jong Un has adopted South Korean language are overstated. Experts suggest that any South Korean expressions appearing in North Korean media are likely coincidental or serve propaganda purposes, rather than indicating a linguistic shift. The significant language differences between the two Koreas remain, and claims about Kim’s use of South Korean words are being misinterpreted. Jeongmin Kim, NK News, August 20
Aging Workforce Threatens to Dull South Korean Conglomerates’ Competitive Edge. South Korea's leading conglomerates, such as Samsung, Hyundai, and LG, face growing challenges as their workforces age rapidly. With a decline in younger employees and an increase in older workers, these companies risk losing the innovation and agility necessary to remain competitive in the global market. The demographic change is raising concerns about rising costs and stifled growth, which could impact South Korea’s economic future. John Lee, Korea Pro, August 20
New Thai PM Will Face the Same Crisis of Confidence. Thailand's new Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is expected to encounter the same legitimacy challenges that plagued her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin. Despite her political right to lead, concerns over her close ties to her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, and his controversial influence raise doubts about her ability to govern independently. The situation risks further destabilizing Thai politics as questions of legitimacy and control persist. Termsak Chalermpalanupap, Fulcrum, August 20
Strengthening ASEAN-Japan Cybersecurity Cooperation. Japan and ASEAN are intensifying efforts to combat rising cyber threats through enhanced cooperation. Key initiatives include the ASEAN-Japan Cybersecurity Capacity Building Centre and tailored programs like Vietnam's cyber defense enhancement project. While Japan offers expertise in policy frameworks, ASEAN countries, particularly Thailand and Vietnam, excel in incident response. The collaboration aims to leverage mutual strengths for a more resilient cybersecurity landscape in the Indo-Pacific. Asha Hemrajani and Mae Chow, Fulcrum, August 20