Asia Daily: August 15, 2024
News
Daughter of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin will be nominated as new leader in parliamentary vote. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is set to be nominated as Thailand’s new prime minister following the ousting of Srettha Thavisin. Backed by her party, Pheu Thai, and its coalition partners, she is positioned to become Thailand’s second female prime minister and the third leader from the Shinawatra family. Her candidacy comes after Thailand’s recent political upheavals, including the dissolution of the progressive Move Forward party and the end of the military-appointed Senate’s veto power over prime ministerial candidates.Jintamas Saksornchai, AP News, August 15
South Korea's Yoon seeks dialogue with North, path to unification. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol proposed creating a working-level consultative body with North Korea to ease tensions and discuss cooperation, including economic ties, while outlining his vision for unification. Despite the strained relationship due to North Korea’s nuclear advancements, Yoon emphasized dialogue as a way forward. His speech also included plans to address North Korea's human rights issues, though experts warn these efforts may be perceived as threats by Pyongyang. Hyonhee Shin, Reuters, August 15
Chinese foreign minister delivers thinly veiled rebuke to Myanmar junta boss. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi issued a subtle reprimand to Myanmar's junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, warning against comments that harm China-Myanmar relations. The rebuke followed accusations from Min Aung Hlaing about foreign interference, hinting at China’s involvement in Myanmar’s northern conflicts. Wang emphasized China’s support for Myanmar's sovereignty and stability, while also urging the junta to safeguard the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline project. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, August 15
Bangladesh protesters, vowing to ‘guard revolution’, beat Hasina supporters. Hundreds of student protesters and political activists attacked supporters of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, blocking them from reaching the house of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The protest coincided with the anniversary of Rahman's assassination, which Hasina's supporters sought to commemorate. Tensions have escalated following Hasina's resignation and escape to India, with protesters determined to prevent what they view as a counter-revolution. Al Jazeera, August 15
Philippine coastguard ship ‘heading for disputed South China Sea reef’. The Philippines is deploying the BRP Melchora Aquino to the disputed Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea, replacing the BRP Teresa Magbanua amid ongoing tensions with China. The reef, within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, has been the site of a standoff since April. Chinese monitors warn of a potential "forceful response" from Beijing, as both nations continue to assert control over the strategic area. Liu Zhen and Amber Wang, South China Morning Post, August 15
Ex-ruling LDP lawmaker resigns amid salary fraud probe. Former Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Megumi Hirose has resigned from Japan's House of Councillors following a salary fraud investigation. Hirose, who left the LDP last month, is accused of paying a salary to a secretary who performed no duties. Her resignation follows a broader scandal within the LDP, which includes unreported fundraising income, leading Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to announce his resignation next month. Kyodo News, August 15
PH, Singapore sign MOUs for trade, people-to-people exchange. The Philippines and Singapore have signed Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) focused on enhancing trade relations and cultural exchanges. These agreements, formalized during the 10th Philippines-Singapore Business Council meeting, aim to boost collaboration in digital innovation, infrastructure development, and human capital. The initiative is expected to deepen economic ties and foster greater connectivity between the two countries. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, August 15
China’s economic recovery dragged down by property slump and weak consumption in July. China’s economic recovery in July was hampered by a continued property crisis and weak consumption, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.2% and industrial production slowing. Retail sales grew by 2.7%, slightly better than expected, while real estate investment dropped by 10.2% in the first seven months. The Chinese government has introduced policies to boost consumer spending, but challenges remain due to ongoing frictions with Western countries and the prolonged property market slump. AP News, August 15
Japan's GDP grows 3.1% in April-June as consumption rebounds. Japan's economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.1% in the April-June quarter, driven by a recovery in private consumption and capital spending. This marks the first increase in two quarters, with GDP surpassing 600 trillion yen ($4 trillion) for the first time. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who will step down next month, highlighted wage growth and investment as key factors in this economic improvement. Kyodo News, August 15
S. Korea, U.S. wrap up 6th round of talks on defense cost sharing. South Korea and the United States concluded the sixth round of negotiations on the Special Measures Agreement (SMA), which determines Seoul's share of the cost for stationing U.S. Forces Korea. The talks, held in Washington from Monday to Wednesday, focused on achieving substantive progress ahead of the SMA's expiration next year. South Korea is reportedly seeking an early agreement to avoid potential difficulties if former U.S. President Donald Trump returns to office. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, August 15
US is Vietnam's partner of strategic importance: NA Chairman. Vietnam's National Assembly Chairman Trần Thanh Mẫn emphasized the strategic importance of the United States as a partner during a meeting with U.S. Ambassador Marc Evans Knapper. He noted the strengthening ties since the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2023 and highlighted areas for further cooperation, including trade, investment, and legislative collaboration. The U.S. expressed continued support for Vietnam's growth and independence. Vietnam News, August 15
USAID modernizes Kazakhstan's customs system. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has provided advanced computer servers to Kazakhstan's State Revenue Committee, enhancing the country's customs infrastructure. This upgrade, including the new Keden IT system, aims to streamline processes, improve transparency, and support Kazakhstan's role as a regional trade hub. U.S. Ambassador Daniel Rosenblum emphasized the importance of these innovations for economic growth. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, August 15
As cases mount, Bangladesh will decide on seeking Hasina's extradition, adviser says. Bangladesh may request the extradition of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from India, where she fled after violent protests led to her ouster. Facing multiple charges, including murder, Hasina's potential return could create diplomatic tension. The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, is also seeking international support to address the Rohingya refugee crisis and restore stability in Bangladesh ahead of possible elections. Krishn Kaushik and Ruma Paul, Reuters, August 15
China and Vatican discuss Ukraine peace plan as Russia continues to lose ground. China and the Vatican held rare talks regarding a peace plan for Ukraine, amid Ukraine's continued offensive into Russian territory. The call, initiated by Vatican envoy Cardinal Matteo Zuppi and Chinese diplomat Li Hui, emphasized China's six-point peace plan, which includes a ceasefire and negotiations. Both sides appreciated each other's efforts to mediate the crisis, although prospects for immediate negotiations remain uncertain as the conflict intensifies. Kawala Xie, South China Morning Post, August 15
India’s Modi voices concern over unrest in neighboring Bangladesh and attacks on Hindus there. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed concern over the unrest in Bangladesh following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina and the subsequent attacks on Hindus. Speaking on India's Independence Day, Modi assured Bangladesh of continued support and called for stability. He also outlined India's economic goals, focusing on growth, self-reliance, and global partnerships. Ashok Sharma, AP News, August 15
China using economic coercion to influence Palau’s relationship with Taiwan, Palau leader says. Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. accused China of employing economic coercion to weaken Palau's diplomatic ties with Taiwan. He claimed that China is reducing tourism, investments, and business opportunities in Palau as part of a broader strategy to force the island nation to break its ties with Taiwan. Despite this pressure, Whipps affirmed Palau's commitment to maintaining its relationship with Taiwan, emphasizing the importance of sovereignty and resisting external influence. PINA, August 15
Long Form
Thailand loses a prime minister. Thailand’s Constitutional Court dismissed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin for violating the constitution by appointing a convicted individual to his cabinet. This follows a pattern where the judiciary has removed elected leaders, undermining voters' will. Srettha, a minor figure aligned with Thaksin Shinawatra, was part of a deal between conservative forces and Thaksin’s faction. The removal underscores the dominance of conservative forces, and the next government is expected to be weak and beholden to these powers. Susannah Patton, The Interpreter, August 15
Xi balances between professionalism and political control of the PLA. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s relationship with the PLA is marked by distrust, leading to frequent purges and reforms. Despite advancing military modernization, Xi's lack of trust in the PLA raises concerns about its effectiveness in crises. Recent purges of high-ranking officials and restructuring efforts reflect Xi's emphasis on political loyalty over military professionalism. Xi's strategy appears to focus on deterrence rather than full-scale warfare, maintaining China's assertive posture while avoiding the risks of exposing weaknesses. Yoram Evron, East Asia Forum, August 15
A US$1 trillion property bailout is the last thing China’s economy needs. China should reject the IMF's proposed US$1 trillion property bailout, which could reignite the deflated bubble, risking long-term instability. Instead, China should focus on attracting global talent and investing in green technology to achieve technological independence and economic resilience. Targeted stimulus in sectors like electric vehicles and solar energy would better support China's strategic goals, counteract foreign economic pressures, and reduce oil dependency. Andy Xie, South China Morning Post, August 15
The Philippines and West Philippine Sea: bringing deterrence into the picture. The Philippines must develop a deterrence strategy to defend its interests in the West Philippine Sea without provoking conflict with China. This includes enacting key legislation like the Maritime Zones Bill, enhancing military modernization, and strengthening defense ties with international allies. While maintaining a peaceful stance, Manila must prepare for long-term strategic challenges, ensuring its policies reflect both commitment to national security and diplomatic engagement. Maria Gabriela Alano and Deryk Baladjay, Fulcrum, August 15
Marcos ‘ended’ Davao City drug war killings. Why can’t he do it for the rest of PH?. The article examines how President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has reduced drug-related killings in Davao City but questions why similar measures have not been implemented nationwide. The crackdown in Davao, following a wave of violence triggered by Mayor Sebastian Duterte’s drug war declaration, contrasts with rising drug-related deaths elsewhere in the Philippines. The piece highlights the political complexities and selective enforcement of anti-drug strategies, raising concerns about accountability and human rights. Jodesz Gavilan, Rappler, August 15
Kishida’s resignation is a diplomatic loss for Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s decision to step down, amid a political slush fund scandal and plummeting approval ratings, marks a significant diplomatic setback for Japan. Despite domestic challenges, Kishida made crucial strides in foreign relations, including advancing ties with South Korea, supporting Ukraine, and strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance. His departure raises concerns about whether his successor will maintain Japan's enhanced diplomatic standing and handle the evolving global landscape as effectively. Yukari Easton, The Diplomat, August 15
Taiwan People’s Party faces its first corruption scandals. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), led by Ko Wen-je, is confronting its first major corruption scandals, which could jeopardize Ko's future presidential ambitions. Allegations include real estate deals during Ko’s time as Taipei mayor and issues with campaign financing during the 2024 presidential campaign. Key party figures, including Hsinchu mayor Ann Kao, have been implicated, leading to resignations and internal strife. The scandals challenge the TPP’s image as a corruption-free alternative in Taiwanese politics. Brian Hioe, The Diplomat, August 15