Asia Daily: August 13, 2024
News
Chinese foreign minister visits Myanmar amid fresh fighting between junta and rebel groups. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is visiting Myanmar following intense fighting near the Chinese border, where ethnic minority rebel groups have made significant gains. Beijing has increased efforts to mediate between the junta and rebel forces, which include the Han Chinese-led Kokang Allied Forces. Wang's visit aims to reassure Myanmar’s military, which has sought China’s support amid its struggles to control the country. China remains concerned about the conflict spilling over its border. Shi Jiangtao and Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post, August 13
Philippines protests Chinese air force jets’ firing of flares in the path of patrol plane. The Philippines filed a diplomatic protest against China after Chinese jets fired flares dangerously close to a Philippine air force patrol plane over the Scarborough Shoal. This marks the first aerial encounter since rising tensions in the South China Sea last year. Philippine military chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. condemned the actions as hazardous, while President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. called them “unjustified, illegal and reckless.” China claimed the Philippine plane disrupted its combat training. Jim Gomez, AP News, August 13
House postpones selection of new deputy speaker. Thailand’s House of Representatives delayed the selection of a new deputy speaker due to unresolved disagreements within the ruling coalition. The postponement came after a heated parliamentary session, where members could not reach a consensus on the appointment. This delay adds to the ongoing uncertainty in Thailand’s political environment, as coalition parties continue to negotiate key positions. No new date has been set for the selection process, leaving the role temporarily unfilled. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, August 13
PH stepping up airspace patrols. The Philippines is ramping up airspace patrols in response to increasing tensions in the South China Sea, particularly due to China's growing military activities in the region. This initiative will see more frequent and advanced air patrols by the Philippine Air Force, aimed at asserting the country's sovereignty and securing its territorial airspace. The move is part of broader efforts to strengthen national defense and maintain peace in the contested waters. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, August 13
New phase boosts Laos-China clean energy project. Laos and CGI Energy Technology Co., Ltd. have launched Phase II of the Northern Clean Energy Connection Project, aiming to expand clean energy infrastructure in northern Laos. This phase will focus on developing solar, wind, and water storage energy in Oudomxay, Phongsaly, and Luang Namtha provinces, with a target of 1,000 MW of solar energy. The project aligns with the "One Belt, One Road" initiative and seeks to strengthen regional energy collaboration. Kheuakham Chanlivong, The Laotian Times, August 13
Fukushima nuclear fuel debris retrieval to start as early as August. The retrieval of nuclear fuel debris from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant is set to begin as early as August 2024, marking a significant milestone in the plant's decommissioning process. This initial phase will involve removing debris from the Unit 2 reactor, using advanced robotic technology. The operation is a critical step in addressing the aftermath of the 2011 disaster, with ongoing efforts focused on safely managing radioactive materials. Kyodo News, August 13
Philippines says deal with China on South China Sea outpost up for future review. The Philippines announced that its provisional agreement with China, aimed at avoiding confrontations during resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal, may be reviewed in the future. This comes after a recent incident where Chinese jets fired flares near a Philippine military aircraft over Scarborough Shoal. Philippine officials emphasized that the agreement does not compromise their position in the South China Sea, and future discussions may determine if the arrangement will continue. Karen Lema and Mikhail Flores, Reuters, August 13
Vice chair of anti-corruption agency offers to resign following death of senior official. Chung Seung-yun, vice chairman of South Korea's Anti-Corruption and Civil Rights Commission (ACRC), has offered to resign following the suicide of a senior official involved in politically sensitive investigations. The deceased official, who led inquiries into cases involving high-profile figures, was found dead last Thursday. Opposition parties have called for a hearing, alleging government pressure led to the official's death. Chung plans to finalize the process to recognize the death as in the line of duty before stepping down. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, August 13
Việt Nam, China cooperate to build borderline of peace, friendship, cooperation, sustainable development. Việt Nam and China have agreed to enhance their cooperation to build a border characterized by peace, friendship, and sustainable development. The two countries will focus on managing and protecting their shared border while working together on various economic, trade, and environmental projects. High-level talks between representatives from both nations emphasized the importance of mutual respect and understanding in maintaining stability and promoting development in the border areas. Vietnam News, August 13
Singapore narrows 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2% to 3%. Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry has adjusted its 2024 GDP growth forecast to a narrower range of 2% to 3%, reflecting ongoing global challenges, particularly in manufacturing and electronics. The Q2 GDP grew by 0.5%, driven by construction and finance sectors, but offset by declines in manufacturing. The ministry remains cautiously optimistic about achieving modest growth despite uncertainties in the global economy. Abigail Ng, Channel NewsAsia, August 13
Taiwan's Lai seeks unity in talks with veteran Japan lawmaker Ishiba. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te met with senior Japanese lawmaker Shigeru Ishiba to discuss strengthening Taiwan-Japan relations amid regional security concerns. Lai emphasized the importance of unity and collaboration among democratic nations to ensure stability in the Indo-Pacific. Their talks also focused on expanding economic ties and enhancing defense cooperation, with both leaders agreeing on the need for continued partnership in addressing shared challenges. Kyodo News, August 13
Ex-Bangladesh PM Hasina demands probe into protest killings and vandalism. Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was ousted from power earlier this month following massive protests against her government, has called for an investigation into the recent killings and vandalism during ongoing unrest. The protests, which led to her fall after 15 years in power, were sparked by widespread dissatisfaction with economic conditions and alleged corruption. Hasina is urging the current administration to ensure accountability and justice for the victims. Al Jazeera, August 13
Kiribati’s pro-China government faces election test in Pacific. Kiribati’s ruling party, led by President Taneti Maamau, is facing a crucial election that will test the country’s pro-China stance. The election comes amid growing regional concerns about China’s influence in the Pacific, with opposition parties advocating for a return to stronger ties with traditional allies like Australia and the United States. The outcome of this election could significantly impact Kiribati's foreign policy direction. PINA, August 13
FM Cho to hold talks with Brazil's top diplomat next week. South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul is set to meet with Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira next week to discuss various issues, including trade, investment, energy, and people-to-people exchanges. The meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, will also include the signing of a memorandum of understanding for a working holiday program, allowing young South Koreans and Brazilians to work in each other’s countries. Brazil was the first Latin American country to establish diplomatic relations with South Korea in 1959. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, August 13
Long Form
China is in denial about the war in Ukraine. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China adopted a stance of cautious support for Moscow while denying the war’s broader implications. Chinese experts initially expressed concern about the conflict's impact on China's international relationships and economy. However, as the war continues, many in China now view it optimistically, downplaying the costs China has incurred. This denial could influence China’s approach to future conflicts, particularly regarding Taiwan, as Chinese analysts misinterpret Western resolve. Jude Blanchette, Foreign Affairs, August 13
Will Move Forward Party’s dissolution cause another wave of youth-led protests in Thailand? The Thai Constitutional Court's dissolution of the Move Forward Party (MFP) has sparked concerns about potential youth-led protests. However, unlike the 2020 protests that followed the dissolution of MFP's predecessor, Future Forward, a similar large-scale response seems unlikely. Factors such as the suppression of the 2020 movement, disillusionment from the 2023 election results, and divisions within the pro-democracy coalition have dampened the momentum. Many young supporters may now turn to formal political channels instead. Panarat Anamwathana, Fulcrum, August 13
The crisis of Indian capitalism. The 2024 general elections in India highlighted deep economic challenges. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP won the most seats but fell short of a majority, reflecting public dissatisfaction. A scandal involving a high-stakes medical exam, marred by irregularities, underscored systemic issues in education and job scarcity. Economic liberalization has created a credibility crisis for capitalism, with rampant inequality and cronyism. As the opposition gains momentum, there's a growing demand for economic reforms that promote job creation and inclusive growth. Yamini Aiyar, Foreign Affairs, August 13
The UK should be careful not to hand the Middle East to China. As the UK shifts its focus to the Indo-Pacific, China is increasing its influence in Oman, particularly through strategic investments in the port of Duqm. This growing relationship between Oman and China, including economic and military ties, poses a challenge to the UK's longstanding presence in the region. London must remain vigilant and ensure it does not neglect its interests in the Middle East, where Beijing is steadily expanding its foothold. Ondrej Palicka, RAND, August 13
Navigating the Competitive Seas. In April 2024, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to enhance defense and security cooperation, launching the Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition, and Sustainment (DICAS) initiative. This initiative includes ship maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) for U.S. Navy vessels in Japan, critical for sustaining U.S. naval presence in the Indo-Pacific. The collaboration aims to strengthen supply chains and shipbuilding infrastructure, ensuring long-term regional deterrence amid China's rising influence in the East and South China Seas. Moyuru Tanaka, CSIS, August 13
Why the next US president should shift Myanmar policy. The U.S. approach to Myanmar has failed, with sanctions and isolation only entrenching the military regime and worsening the crisis. The next U.S. president should consider a more nuanced policy that involves direct engagement with Myanmar’s military to push for reforms, while also bolstering support for civil society and ethnic groups. This strategy could help reduce the conflict, counter China's influence in Myanmar, and better align U.S. interests in Southeast Asia, moving away from the rigid stance that has proven ineffective. Than N. Oo, The Diplomat, August 13
Bangladesh teeters on the edge of reconciliation and chaos. Bangladesh faces a critical juncture, with political tensions escalating as the country approaches its next general elections. The ruling Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina, and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) remain deeply divided, raising concerns of potential violence and unrest. The international community is watching closely, as Bangladesh’s stability is crucial for regional security. The situation could either lead to a path of reconciliation or descend into further chaos, depending on how both sides navigate the coming months. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, August 13