Asia Daily: August 1, 2024
News
Amid global turmoil Blinken aims to ease anxiety over US election on 6-nation Asia tour. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Laos, Vietnam, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, and Mongolia to reassure allies amid global instability. The trip, his first since President Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 race, faced questions about U.S. leadership and election impacts. Blinken emphasized bipartisan support for international engagement and alliances, despite concerns over China's actions, Middle East tensions and Russia's aggression. Matthew Lee, AP News, August 1
North Korea wants to restart nuclear talks if Trump wins, says ex-diplomat. North Korea aims to reopen nuclear talks with the U.S. if Donald Trump is re-elected, according to Ri Il Gyu, a senior diplomat who defected to South Korea. Ri disclosed that North Korea is planning a new strategy to lift sanctions and gain economic aid. He emphasized the strengthening of ties with Russia and potential engagement with Japan for economic assistance. Despite current tensions, North Korea views Trump's possible return as an opportunity for renewed negotiations. Hyonhee Shin, Reuters, July 31
Bangladesh bans Jamaat-e-Islami party following violent protests that left more than 200 dead. Bangladesh banned Jamaat-e-Islami, its student wing, and associate bodies as “militant and terrorist” organizations after violent protests left over 200 dead and thousands injured. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina blamed these groups for inciting violence during protests over a government job quota system. Jamaat's leader condemned the ban as unconstitutional. Hasina warned that Jamaat might continue underground activities and would be treated as militant groups. Julhas Alam, AP News, August 1
Little-known party set to admit Move Forward MPs. A little-known Thai political party is preparing to admit Members of Parliament from the Move Forward Party, which faces dissolution. The move comes as the Constitutional Court is expected to rule on a case that could disband the Move Forward Party for allegedly violating election laws. This development could significantly impact Thailand's political landscape, as the Move Forward Party has been a vocal advocate for democratic reforms and youth engagement. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, August 1
Japan to offer aid to Central Asia. Japan plans to provide aid to Central Asian countries to promote economic development and regional stability. The initiative aims to enhance cooperation in infrastructure, healthcare, education, and environmental sustainability. Japan's Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi emphasized the importance of supporting Central Asia's economic growth and addressing regional challenges during a recent meeting with representatives from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, August 1
South Korea offers humanitarian aid to flood-hit North Korea. South Korea offered aid to North Korea after heavy rains and floods submerged thousands of homes and large areas of farmland. The offer comes amid high tensions over North Korea's nuclear ambitions and South Korea's military exercises with the U.S. and Japan. North Korea has not responded to the offer. The floods affected over 4,100 houses and 7,410 acres of agricultural fields in Sinuiju and Uiju. Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, August 1
China military condemns Canadian warship Montreal’s transit of Taiwan Strait. The Chinese military condemned the Canadian warship HMCS Montreal's transit through the Taiwan Strait, monitored by the PLA Eastern Theatre Command. Senior Captain Li Xi accused Canada of undermining peace and stability. The transit, part of Canada's Indo-Pacific strategy, aims to support a rules-based international order. Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair reaffirmed commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. This incident follows recent diplomatic attempts to mend Canada-China relations. Sylvie Zhang, South China Morning Post, August 1
Viet Nam, India target doubling two-way trade by 2030. Vietnam and India have set a goal to double their bilateral trade to US$30 billion by 2030. During a meeting in Hanoi, Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Tran Luu Quang and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar agreed to enhance economic cooperation, focusing on key areas such as agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and technology. Both countries aim to strengthen their strategic partnership, leveraging mutual strengths to achieve the ambitious trade target. Vietnam News, August 1
Supreme Court orders House of Sharing to return donations made for wartime sexual slavery victims The Supreme Court ordered the House of Sharing to return donations, citing misuse of funds intended for wartime sexual slavery victims. Donations were reserved for building projects, not for aiding "comfort women." This decision followed a lawsuit by donor Lee, who contributed 50,000 won monthly from 2017 to 2020. The court ruled that the donation contract be nullified due to the discrepancy in the intended and actual use of funds. Kim Hyun-soo, Yonhap News Agency, August 1
Tokyo stocks tumble as stronger yen dampens earnings prospects. Tokyo stocks fell sharply at the opening on Wednesday due to a stronger yen impacting exporters. The Nikkei Stock Average dropped 489.28 points, or 1.55 percent, from the previous day to 31,086.82. The Topix index fell 31.52 points, or 1.40 percent, to 2,217.63. The yen's appreciation against the U.S. dollar, which reached the 140 level, raised concerns about earnings for exporters. Stocks in the machinery, electric appliance, and automobile sectors faced significant losses. Kyodo News, August 1
Myanmar junta boss admits simultaneous nationwide election impossible. Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, acknowledged that holding a simultaneous nationwide election is impossible due to ongoing conflicts and instability. In a meeting with military officials, he cited security concerns and the inability to ensure free and fair elections across the country. The admission marks a significant shift from the junta's earlier promises of nationwide elections. The Irrawaddy, July 31
Indonesian president-elect supports Russian consulate plan in Bali. Indonesian President-elect Ganjar Pranowo has expressed his support for Russia's plan to establish a consulate in Bali. During a meeting with Russian Ambassador Lyudmila Vorobieva, Pranowo emphasized the importance of strengthening bilateral relations and cooperation in various sectors, including tourism and education. The establishment of the consulate is expected to enhance diplomatic ties and provide better services to Russian citizens in Indonesia. Antara News, August 1
Uzbek-Kyrgyz expert council established to support joint projects. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have formed an expert council to facilitate and support joint projects between the two nations. The council aims to enhance collaboration in various fields, including economic development, trade, and investment. Officials from both countries emphasized the importance of this initiative for strengthening bilateral relations and promoting regional stability and growth. The council will serve as a platform for experts to share knowledge, address challenges, and develop strategies for successful project implementation. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, August 1
Taro Kono softens line against nuclear power ahead of LDP leadership race. Taro Kono, Japan's digital transformation minister, has shifted his stance to support restarting idled nuclear power plants and promoting nuclear fusion research. This marks a change from his earlier anti-nuclear position, aiming to gain broader support within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party before its leadership election in September. Kono acknowledged the need for nuclear energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, citing the increasing electricity demand from AI and electric vehicles. The Japan Times, August 1
Tonga’s finance minister stresses urgency of regional cooperation at forum economic ministers meeting. Tonga's Finance Minister Tiofilusi Tiueti emphasized the importance of regional economic collaboration at the Forum Economic Ministers Meeting in Suva. He highlighted the need for transformative resilience and collective efforts to address challenges such as climate change, geopolitical tensions, and the pandemic. Tiueti stressed the significance of the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent and urged for innovative solutions and partnerships to promote sustainable growth and economic prosperity in the region. Pita Ligaiula, PINA, August 1
Marcos: PH 'on the right path' in BARMM. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. expressed confidence that the Philippines is progressing towards a more peaceful and prosperous Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). After receiving the Third Intergovernmental Relations Body (IGRB) Progress Report, Marcos highlighted ongoing efforts to address governance, infrastructure, and economic development issues. He emphasized that resolving these concerns is crucial for the region's stability and growth. Catherine S. Valente and Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, August 1
‘I don’t care about the big power rivalries,’ East Timor leader Ramos-Horta says. East Timor's President Jose Ramos-Horta stated that his country will not take sides in the U.S.-China rivalry, emphasizing its strong relations with both nations and other neighbors. During a state visit to Beijing, Ramos-Horta highlighted potential military cooperation with China, focusing on disaster response training. His priority is to address East Timor's poverty, malnutrition, and sanitation issues, rather than geopolitical conflicts. Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post, August 1
Long Form
Why Japan Will Not Spend Three Percent. Japan is unlikely to meet its defense spending target of 3% of GDP due to a combination of economic, political, and social factors. The government faces significant budget constraints, partly because of its substantial national debt and the need to fund social security for an aging population. Additionally, there is limited public support for increasing military expenditure, reflecting a long-standing pacifist sentiment among the Japanese people. Political challenges also play a role, with opposition parties and factions within the ruling party hesitant to endorse such a boost in defense spending. Tobias Harris,
, August 1China’s EVs are AI-on-wheels, while European cars are still trying to get smart. China's electric vehicle (EV) industry leverages deep integration with the AI sector to produce advanced smart features quickly. This includes software for smart cockpits, driver assistance, and autonomous driving, driven by tech companies like Baidu and Huawei. In contrast, European carmakers struggle to innovate at the same pace. To compete, European manufacturers must focus more on software and AI integration. Wendy Chang and Antonia Hmaidi, MERICS, August 1
Will Malaysia build ASEAN with BRICS? Malaysia, under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, has applied to join BRICS, a shift towards a more independent foreign policy and alignment with BRICS' agenda of economic justice and de-dollarization. As Malaysia prepares to chair ASEAN in 2025, Anwar aims to leverage this position to advocate for BRICS' goals within the region. This move signals Malaysia's intention to navigate between major powers like the US and China while fostering stronger ties within the BRICS framework. Shankaran Nambiar, Lowy Institute, August 2
Nationalism vs globalism: Making the case for Indonesian dual citizenship. Indonesia's current policy does not allow dual citizenship, which hinders its global competitiveness. Indonesians abroad face challenges due to limited rights and a weak passport, ranked 107th globally. Allowing dual citizenship could harness the potential of the Indonesian diaspora, estimated at six million, similar to policies in the Philippines that boost their economy. A shift in mindset is necessary for Indonesia to benefit from its global citizens' economic contributions. Alldo Fellix Januardy and Agata Jacqueline Paramesvari, Lowy Institute, August 1
The Future of Democracy in India. India’s 2024 elections revealed voter demand for democratic restoration, as evidenced by the success of the opposition, led by Rahul Gandhi. However, democratic practices must be reinstated amid growing authoritarianism under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, marked by the suppression of civil liberties and opposition. Despite Modi's minority vote share, he retains power through coalition partners. The global impact of India's democratic trajectory is significant, especially as Modi strengthens ties with autocratic regimes like Russia. Linda Robinson, Council on Foreign Relations, August 1
Boots On the Ground: What Chinese Private Security Contractors Do in Central Asia. Chinese private security contractors (PSCs) in Central Asia are adapting to local market demands and security challenges to protect Chinese enterprises operating in the region. These PSCs provide armed and unarmed protection, security consulting, and training, while operating within local legal frameworks. Their presence reflects China's broader strategic aims and highlights the growing importance of non-traditional security measures. Odil Gafarov, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 1
India should support the WTO Investment Facilitation Agreement. Supporting the WTO Investment Facilitation Agreement (IFA) is crucial for India to integrate more deeply into global value chains and attract foreign investment. The IFA aims to streamline and improve the transparency of investment procedures, which can enhance investor confidence and reduce transaction costs. India's participation would signal its commitment to creating a more predictable and efficient investment environment. Additionally, this support could help mitigate the negative impacts of its previous trade policies and enhance its global trade leadership. Karl Sauvant, East Asia Forum, August 1
How Should the World Perceive Today’s Hong Kong? Hong Kong, once known for its freedoms, has seen changes since Beijing imposed the National Security Law in 2020. Pro-democracy groups, media, and civil organizations have been dismantled, and leaders persecuted. The city faces economic struggles and a mass exodus of residents. Beijing's firm control aims to align Hong Kong with its global strategic goals, affecting the city's autonomy and governance. This raises questions about the future of Hong Kong's unique status and freedoms. Michael Mo, The Diplomat, August 1
Having It Both Ways: Third Plenum Promises Reforms and Doubles Down On Xi’s Grand Vision. The Third Plenum of the CCP’s Central Committee endorsed Xi Jinping's vision for China's modernization, focusing on high-quality economic growth driven by technology and self-reliance. Despite economic challenges, the Plenum promised reforms to aid the private sector and improve social welfare, but the pledges face large implementation hurdles. The emphasis on science and technology aims to boost geopolitical power, but contradictions in policy and resource allocation remain. Katja Drinhausen, Max J. Zenglein, and Rebecca Arcesati, The Diplomat, August 1
Why do young people in Hungary want kids more than in Japan? Young people in Hungary express a strong desire to marry and have families, in contrast to their Japanese counterparts. Hungary's comprehensive family policies, including financial incentives, housing subsidies, and work-life balance measures, have successfully boosted birth rates. Japan, facing low marriage and birth rates, has implemented measures like an AI-powered dating app, but cultural and economic challenges persist. Hungary's supportive policies show a potential path for Japan to address its demographic issues. Waka Konohana, The Japan Times, July 31
China Targets Tech at Third Plenum – To Beat Trump or Harris. China's Third Plenum emphasized technological innovation and self-sufficiency in response to US sanctions and competition. Xi Jinping outlined a vision for high-quality development, focusing on advanced manufacturing and the semiconductor industry. Despite economic challenges, the Plenum resisted quick fixes, instead prioritizing long-term tech advancements to counter US-led containment. The strategy includes boosting innovation, developing industrial and supply chains, and attracting global talent to strengthen China's technological capabilities. Enodo Economics, August 1
Trouble Ahead: The Future of North Korea’s Illicit Efforts to Procure WMD Tech. North Korea continues to advance its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program by illicitly acquiring dual-use technologies despite international sanctions. Weak sanctions enforcement and growing ties with Russia are enabling Pyongyang to bolster its WMD capabilities and arms sales. This ongoing procurement poses great challenges to global nonproliferation efforts. Daniel Salisbury, NK News, August 1
Satellite images reveal devastating floods in North Korea, displacing thousands. Severe flooding in North Korea, particularly in Jagang and Ryanggang provinces, has caused damage, displacing thousands and possibly causing fatalities. Entire villages, including Kwangmyong-ri, were destroyed, and key transport links were disrupted. The floods also impacted factories known for weapons production, potentially affecting North Korea's arms exports. These findings, based on satellite imagery, suggest that the damage is more extensive than reported by state media. Colin Zwirko, NK News, August 2
South Korea braces for economic turbulence following Japan’s interest rate hike. The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike to 0.25% has raised concerns in South Korea over potential economic instability. The rate increase could lead to currency volatility, capital outflows, and broader economic challenges for South Korea, showcasing the interconnectedness of regional economies and the potential ripple effects of monetary policy changes in major economies like Japan. John Lee, Korea Pro, August 1
Nguyen Phu Trong and Vietnam: The Loss of Ideological Cover. The passing of Nguyen Phu Trong, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, marks an important ideological shift. Trong's commitment to Marxist-Leninism and his anti-corruption efforts provided a cohesive ideological framework for the party. His successors, lacking his theoretical acumen and facing the declining appeal of socialism among youth, will struggle to maintain the same ideological unity and public trust. This could lead to increased factionalism and challenges in sustaining Vietnam's path to socialism. Nguyen Thanh Giang and Nguyen Khac Giang, Fulcrum, August 1