Asia Daily: April 9, 2024
News
Biden to host Japan's Kishida, Philippines' Marcos as security fears mount. US President Joe Biden plans to meet with leaders from Japan and the Philippines to enhance economic and defense partnerships against the backdrop of China's regional ascent. The summits with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos will focus on economic ties, defense enhancements, and regional security issues like North Korea and the South China Sea. These discussions aim to fortify alliances within the Indo-Pacific. David Brunnstrom and Trevor Hunnicutt, Reuters, April 8
Rival parties visit key battlegrounds two days before elections. With the parliamentary elections approaching, parties are targeting crucial areas in Seoul and its surroundings, following a record early voting turnout. The People Power Party focuses on regions traditionally aligned with the opposition, emphasizing defense against the opposition's potential dominance in the National Assembly. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party campaigns in Seoul, aiming to critique the current administration's performance. Both parties are making their final appeals to sway undecided voters in tightly contested districts. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, April 8
Kishida arrives in U.S. for 1st state visit by Japan PM in 9 years. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is in the United States for a significant state visit, the first in nine years, aimed at reinforcing the Japan-US alliance. His agenda includes discussions with President Joe Biden and a rare address to Congress, focusing on security cooperation, economic partnerships, and reinforcing supply chains. Tomoyuki Tachikawa, Kyodo News, April 9
China’s No 3 official Zhao Leji to lead delegation to North Korea on ‘goodwill visit’. Zhao Leji, ranked third in China's political hierarchy, will visit North Korea to mark the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties. His delegation's trip, amid regional uncertainties, signals sustained high-level dialogue and potential discussions on bilateral and strategic issues. This move could further solidify the historically close yet complex relationship between the two neighbors, especially against the backdrop of global diplomatic shifts and regional security concerns. South China Morning Post, April 9
Protesters demanding restoration of Nepal’s monarchy clash with police. In Kathmandu, supporters of Nepal's former King Gyanendra, who was dethroned in 2008, clashed with riot police while trying to approach prime ministerial offices. The demonstration, organized by the National Democratic Party, pushed for the monarchy's reinstatement and Nepal's return to a Hindu state. Despite the absence of major injuries and Gyanendra's minimal chance of regaining power, the protest underscores some public dissatisfaction with current political leadership. AP News, April 9
Kazakhstan downplaying Victory Day commemoration. Kazakhstan has canceled military parades for Victory Day on May 9, traditionally commemorating the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany, to allocate funds toward enhancing military readiness. This decision reflects both economic considerations and geopolitical caution, particularly regarding Russia's actions in Ukraine. The shift away from lavish military displays also aligns with public sentiment, questioning the relevance of such parades in modern times, especially amid significant domestic challenges like recent severe flooding. Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet, April 8
KIA captures trade hub on China-Myanmar border. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has taken control of Lwegel, a major trade hub along the China-Myanmar border, suspending border trade temporarily. This strategic move comes amid ongoing tensions in the region, with implications for both local and cross-border economic activities. The capture indicates the KIA's significant influence in the area and could impact future negotiations and regional stability. Myanmar Now, April 9
Australia Strengthens Partnerships with Laos, ASEAN. Australia is enhancing its collaboration with Laos and the ASEAN bloc, as expressed by ASEAN Senior Official Michelle Chan during her visit to Vientiane. This move, following a significant ASEAN-Australia Summit, aims to support regional security, prosperity, and shared challenges like climate change. Key developments include the Laos-Australia Comprehensive Partnership and initiatives in agriculture, clean energy, and infrastructure investment, demonstrating Australia's commitment to regional engagement. The Laotian Times, April 8
Yoon orders firm response to illegal fishing by Chinese vessels. President Yoon Suk Yeol has directed the South Korean Coast Guard to take a stronger stance against illegal fishing by Chinese vessels within the nation's waters. During his visit to a Coast Guard unit in Incheon, he emphasized the security of marine resources and the need to prioritize South Korea's interests and safety. This directive follows incidents of illegal fishing near the Northern Limit Line and recent enforcement actions against such activities. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, April 9
Vatican’s top diplomat begins a 6-day visit to Vietnam aimed at normalizing relations. The Vatican's foreign minister, Richard Gallagher, embarked on a six-day mission to Vietnam, marking a significant step toward normalizing ties with the communist country. Meetings with Vietnamese officials and a Mass in multiple cities are part of efforts to enhance relations. This visit follows the establishment of a Vatican representative in Vietnam, underscoring progress in diplomatic engagement since 1975. The development could influence Vatican's relations with other nations, including China. Aniruddha Ghosal, AP News, April 9
Kazakhstan and Egypt Develop Economic Cooperation. Kazakhstan and Egypt have signed a Memorandum of Cooperation to enhance trade and investment opportunities, reflecting their commitment to strengthening economic ties. The agreement, facilitated by Kazakh Invest and the Egyptian Business Council for International Cooperation, comes as Kazakh producers express interest in the Egyptian market. This collaboration is set to deepen with planned business exchanges later in the year. Times of Central Asia, April 8
President signs decree on FATF membership. President Joko Widodo has officially endorsed Indonesia's membership in the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) by signing a decree, marking Indonesia as the 40th member. This move is aimed at bolstering Indonesia's fight against global financial crimes, enhancing the credibility of its economy, and fostering international cooperation in addressing money laundering, terrorism financing, and weapons proliferation. This membership is expected to positively impact foreign investor confidence in Indonesia's financial system. ANTARA News, April 8
Long Form
Self-kidnappings by Chinese Students Abroad: Mystery Solved. Recent puzzling incidents of self-kidnapping among Chinese students abroad have been attributed to the manipulative tactics of Chinese cyber-criminals. These students, under the directive of criminals, have engaged in elaborate schemes to simulate their own abductions, including binding themselves and simulating distress to produce ransom-worthy images or videos. This phenomenon reflects not just the cunning of online scam artists but is deeply rooted in the climate of fear generated by police brutality and transnational repression within China itself. The incidents show a broader, disturbing trend of extortion that leverages the vulnerability of students abroad and the anxieties of their families back home. This situation sheds light on socio-political factors in China and the exploitation of technology by criminals to orchestrate transnational crimes. By Magnus Fiskesjö in The Diplomat, April 9
Indonesia’s Scorpene Submarine Deal With France, Explained. Indonesia has recently solidified its defense ties with France through a significant contract for the purchase of two Scorpene-class submarines, valued at around $2 billion. What sets this deal apart is that both submarines will be constructed in Indonesia by the state-owned shipbuilder PT PAL in Surabaya, marking a significant stride in Indonesia's naval capabilities and defense manufacturing sector. This agreement not only enhances the existing defense relationship between France and Indonesia, but also represents a substantial and somewhat daring advancement in their bilateral cooperation. By James Guild in The Diplomat, April 9
Japan's Expo 2025: Osaka triumph or billion-dollar folly? As Osaka prepares for Expo 2025, it faces construction delays and rising costs, now exceeding $1.5 billion. Despite historical successes, such as the 1970 Expo that marked Japan as a post-war economic power, this event is marred by labor shortages and a questioning of its modern relevance. Organizers and some residents see the Expo as a chance to showcase technological advancements and boost Osaka's profile. However, skepticism remains about the necessity of world expos in the digital age. By Akira Kitado in Nikkei Asia, April 9
To revive investor interest, Thailand needs more than salesmanship. Thailand's quest to rejuvenate investor interest under Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin requires significant structural reforms beyond mere promotional efforts. Despite being a historically favored destination for foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly from Japanese firms, Thailand has seen a decline in its competitive edge and FDI volumes within ASEAN. The country's struggle with political instability, low labor productivity, and slow adaptation to the changing nature of globalization are among the key factors deterring investors. In contrast, nations like Vietnam have become increasingly attractive due to their dynamic markets and conducive environment for high-tech industries. Thailand must address critical structural issues, including skill development, compliance with global environmental standards, and the creation of a fair competitive landscape, to attract higher-value investments. By Pavida Pananond in Nikkei Asia, April 9
South Korea’s foreign policy on the ballot. The upcoming parliamentary elections in South Korea are crucial for President Yoon Suk-yeol, potentially reshaping his administration's domestic and foreign policy agenda. The elections, seen as a referendum on Yoon's leadership, pit his conservative People Power Party against the progressive Democratic Party of Korea. Issues such as the economy, living costs, and a few controversies dominate voter concerns. However, the geopolitical implications of the elections are significant, particularly regarding South Korea's relationships with the United States, Japan, China, and North Korea. Yoon's tenure has enhanced security and economic cooperation with the US and Japan, but his policies have faced domestic criticism, especially his stance towards Japan. A victory for the progressive opposition could impact the future direction of South Korea's foreign policy, including its position on trilateral cooperation with the US and Japan. By Jinwan Park in East Asia Forum, April 9
Southeast Asia needs to balance AI innovation and regulation. As Southeast Asia navigates the burgeoning field of artificial intelligence (AI), the balance between fostering innovation and implementing regulation emerges as a crucial challenge. With the Philippines proposing an AI regulatory framework for ASEAN in 2026, the region acknowledges the significance of AI for its future. However, disparities in AI readiness among member states, from Singapore’s high preparedness to Myanmar’s lower score, highlight the need for a more unified approach. The February 2024 ASEAN Guide on AI Governance and Ethics marks a step towards regional best practices, yet a more detailed framework is essential to harness AI's benefits while mitigating potential harms. The forthcoming ASEAN AI regulatory framework must navigate the fine line between enabling innovation and preventing misuse, learning from the EU’s experiences with the Artificial Intelligence Act to avoid stifling the AI sector’s growth. By Cindy Zheng and Albert J Rapha in East Asia Forum, April 9
The AUKUS thing feels reckless to me but maybe I'm being alarmist. Beijing was already annoyed when Australia joined, and I feel like they would be furious if Japan does. Maybe use it as a Taiwan excuse ala Russia did with NATO and Ukraine.