Asia Daily: April 7, 2025
China
China preps for protracted trade fight with hints of rate cuts, fiscal upswing. China signaled readiness to counter escalating U.S. tariffs with potential interest rate cuts, reserve requirement adjustments, and increased fiscal spending. Following a 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, Beijing emphasized the resilience of its economy and the need to boost domestic demand. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and UBS expect near-term stimulus, with projected GDP losses of 1.5 percentage points for both China and the U.S. Alice Li, South China Morning Post, April 7
China to U.S.: 'Market has spoken' after tariffs spur selloff. China called for equal-footed dialogue with the United States after markets plunged in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, including a 34% levy on Chinese goods. Chinese officials, backed by state media, urged Washington to end its use of tariffs as a tool against China and vowed continued countermeasures. Hong Kong, though critical of the tariffs, ruled out retaliatory steps. Global markets saw steep declines, with the S&P 500 down 9% for the week. Antoni Slodkowski and Qiaoyi Li, Reuters, April 5
Japan
Ishiba says he plans to speak to Trump about tariffs in coming days. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to hold a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump within the week to address the administration’s new tariffs on Japan. Ishiba emphasized that Japan would seek a comprehensive resolution rather than piecemeal concessions, insisting any agreement must be cohesive and impactful. Jesse Johnson, The Japan Times, April 5
Nikkei stock index loses 6.5% in morning amid U.S. tariff concerns. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average plunged 6.5% Monday morning, briefly dipping below 31,000 points, amid intensifying fears of a global trade war sparked by sweeping U.S. tariffs. The Topix index also dropped 6.54%. The yen strengthened as investors turned to safe-haven assets, while bond yields fell. The sharp sell-off followed similar declines on Wall Street and was exacerbated by China’s retaliatory tariff announcement. Kyodo News, April 7
South Korea
Gov't sets presidential election for June 3. South Korea’s government has scheduled the presidential election for June 3 to replace ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol. The date, which complies with the legal requirement to hold an election within 60 days of impeachment, is set to be confirmed at a Cabinet meeting this week. Candidate registration closes May 11, campaigns begin May 12, and civil servants must resign by May 4 to run. The winner will take office immediately without a transition team. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, April 7
South Korea assembly speaker proposes revising constitution to curb presidency. National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik proposed constitutional reform to reduce presidential powers following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment for declaring martial law. Woo called for a national referendum to coincide with the upcoming presidential election. He cited strong public backing for change, referencing the “imperial presidency” as a cause of political conflict. Both ruling and opposition figures have recently expressed support for reform. Ju-Min Park, Reuters, April 6
North Korea
North Korea holds first Pyongyang marathon after pandemic. North Korea hosted its first Pyongyang International Marathon in six years, reopening to foreign athletes from countries including China and Ethiopia. The race, held as part of celebrations for Kim Il Sung’s birthday, marked a rare event involving international visitors since the country sealed its borders in 2020 due to COVID-19. About 200 foreigners participated, with the course passing through central Pyongyang and ending at a stadium of 50,000 spectators. A North Korean runner won the race. Ju-Min Park, Reuters, April 6
India
India and Sri Lanka sign defense and energy deals as Modi’s visit strengthens ties. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake signed defense and energy agreements, including the launch of a joint 120-megawatt solar power plant. The deals aim to deepen India’s influence in Sri Lanka amid China's growing presence. Modi reaffirmed shared regional security interests and praised Sri Lanka’s assurances that its territory will not be used to threaten India. Protests erupted in Colombo, with critics claiming the agreements surrender sovereignty. Bharatha Mallawarachi, Associated Press, April 5
Thailand
Campaigns mount against Thai govt’s casino bill. Academics, doctors, and former constitution drafters in Thailand are opposing the government’s casino bill, warning it would increase crime and harm society. Critics argue the bill, which was not part of the ruling party’s campaign, benefits foreign developers and misuses state land. Protesters plan to rally at Chulalongkorn University. Detractors say casinos could worsen family issues, enable money laundering, and offer only short-term economic gain. Bangkok Post, April 6
Govt urged to come clean over Thaksin. Thailand’s Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa clarified that a meeting between former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was personal and unrelated to the Bimstec Summit. Critics, including former MP Thepthai Senpong, questioned Thaksin’s unofficial diplomatic role and urged the government to formally define his position. A widely circulated photo of the meeting, featuring both national flags, raised concerns over Thaksin’s influence despite lacking an official role. Bangkok Post, April 6
Vietnam
Top legislators of Vietnam, Uzbekistan hold talks in Tashkent. National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man met Uzbek Senate President Tanzila Narbaeva in Tashkent, marking the first visit by a Vietnamese parliamentary leader since diplomatic ties were established. They pledged to deepen cooperation in trade, energy, agriculture, education, and tourism, while supporting direct flights between Khanh Hoa and Tashkent and signed a parliamentary cooperation agreement and committed to boosting ties through all channels and multilateral platforms including ASEAN and the UN. Vietnam News, April 6
Myanmar
U.S. ups Myanmar quake aid, says others should bear burden. The United States increased its earthquake aid to Myanmar by $7 million, totaling $9 million in support for emergency shelter, food, medical care, and water. While defending the pace of the U.S. response, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said humanitarian assistance must be more globally shared, pointing to contributions from China, India, and Russia. He also noted challenges posed by Myanmar’s junta in limiting foreign aid operations. Myanmar Now, April 5
Cambodia
Chinese upgrades to Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base ‘aimed at de-risking supply chains’. China and Cambodia unveiled new facilities at Ream Naval Base, including a pier capable of hosting large warships and a joint logistics center, reflecting Beijing’s efforts to reduce maritime chokepoints and secure trade routes. Analysts say the move supports China's Belt and Road Initiative and could complement the delayed Funan Techo Canal project. Cambodia affirmed no foreign military bases would be established, while a Japanese warship is set to visit this month. Enoch Wong, South China Morning Post, April 6
Philippines
AFP: No more exclusive security force for VP Duterte. The Armed Forces of the Philippines has deactivated Vice President Sara Duterte’s dedicated security unit, the Vice Presidential Security and Protection Group, and reorganized it into a broader AFP Security and Protection Group to serve multiple VIPs. The move follows Duterte’s impeachment and is part of efforts to unify security operations. Despite the change, the AFP emphasized its continued commitment to her protection. Nestor Corrales, Philippine Daily Inquirer, April 6
Duterte case seen to gain momentum. The International Criminal Court’s case against former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte is expected to accelerate following the assembly of his defense team. Human rights lawyer Joel Butuyan said the case is approaching a crucial September 23 hearing to confirm charges over alleged crimes against humanity. The defense may challenge the ICC’s jurisdiction and seek interim release if warrants are issued. Victim participation and legal representation are also advancing as the case moves forward. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, April 7
Indonesia
Indonesia seeks negotiations over US reciprocal tariffs. Indonesia announced it will pursue diplomatic negotiations with the United States after being hit with a 32% import tariff as part of the Trump administration’s reciprocal trade measures. Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto said the approach prioritizes long-term economic stability and trade relations over retaliation. The government is evaluating impacts on key export sectors such as footwear and plans to offer incentives to support competitiveness. ANTARA News, April 6
President Prabowo to meet Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim in Kuala Lumpur. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto will travel to Kuala Lumpur to meet Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, underscoring their personal rapport and shared leadership within ASEAN. Though the official purpose is to mark Eid al-Fitr, broader issues may be discussed, including the U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Both leaders recently joined a regional call with ASEAN counterparts and agreed to pursue a coordinated response, with economic ministers set to meet next week. ANTARA News, April 6
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan reaffirms OPEC+ commitments amid oil market adjustments. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov reaffirmed the country’s commitment to the OPEC+ agreement during the 59th Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting. The committee reviewed January and February compliance data and praised voluntary cuts by eight countries, including Kazakhstan. Members agreed to adjust the production return schedule based on current market conditions. Kazakhstan emphasized continued cooperation to support oil market stability in line with national and international obligations. Aida Haidar, The Astana Times, April 5
Kyrgyzstan
Foreign Minister of Kyrgyzstan to pay working visit to New York. Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev will visit the United Nations Headquarters in New York from April 7 to 8. He is scheduled to meet UN Secretary-General António Guterres to discuss bilateral cooperation and review progress on agreements made during Guterres’ 2024 visit to Kyrgyzstan. Kulubaev will also hold meetings with leaders of regional organizations to enhance international collaboration. Aizada Kutueva, 24KG, April 7
"Private property inviolable in Kyrgyzstan": President Japarov returns Land Code with objections to Parliament. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov returned the newly passed Land Code to Parliament with objections, citing constitutional violations. He emphasized that private property is inviolable and compensation must be provided when land is seized for state use. Key concerns include limits on compensation rights, pasture privatization, land deals with foreigners without auctions, and restrictions on land use in border areas for railway projects. AKIpress, April 7
Northeast Asia
Hold: Taking Stock of China’s Polar Fleet. China’s growing polar fleet reflects its strategic ambitions in the Arctic and Antarctic, blending scientific research with geopolitical intent. As of 2025, China operates two icebreakers—Xue Long and Xue Long 2—and is constructing a third, nuclear-powered vessel to increase its year-round polar access. This expansion supports China’s broader objectives under its “Polar Silk Road” initiative, aiming to secure resource access and maritime routes in polar regions. Although officially framed as research-focused, these capabilities have dual-use potential, raising international concerns about military applications and China's long-term presence in these fragile environments. The fleet also bolsters China’s participation in international polar governance and reinforces its claim as a “near-Arctic state,” despite criticism from Arctic nations. The nuclear icebreaker under construction, if completed, would place China among the few countries capable of sustained polar operations, potentially reshaping strategic dynamics in the High North and Antarctica. China’s investments indicate a calculated effort to secure economic and geopolitical advantages as climate change opens up new frontiers. Trym Eiterjord, The Diplomat, April 6
Trump Tariffs Imperil the US Asia Pivot. President Donald Trump's recent imposition of a 10% blanket tariff on all imports, with rates up to 54% on Chinese goods, threatens to undermine the United States' strategic "Asia Pivot" policy. These tariffs, aimed at reducing trade deficits and bolstering domestic manufacturing, risk alienating key Asian allies and partners. Countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia, which have been integral to U.S. efforts to counterbalance China's influence in the region, now face significant economic strain due to these tariffs. This strain could push them closer to China, thereby diminishing U.S. influence and strategic positioning in Asia. Furthermore, the tariffs may disrupt regional supply chains and economic integration efforts, counteracting years of diplomatic and economic initiatives designed to strengthen U.S.-Asia relations. Such protectionist measures not only harm economic interests but also jeopardize geopolitical alliances that are crucial for maintaining balance in the Indo-Pacific region. In light of these developments, there is growing concern that the current trade policies may inadvertently erode the foundations of the U.S.'s Asia Pivot strategy, ultimately benefiting strategic competitors like China. Igor Desyatnikov, Geopolitical Monitor, April 6
Southeast Asia
Indonesia’s defence strategy is in urgent need of a refresh. Indonesia’s newly established National Defence Council (NDC) under President Prabowo Subianto is a key step toward more robust defense policymaking, but the broader strategy remains outdated. The NDC, mandated since 2002 but only formed in 2024, integrates civilian and military input to guide national defense policy and replace the defunct National Resilience Council. A top priority is updating the 2015 Defence White Paper, which no longer reflects current threats or strategic realities, such as heightened US-China tensions and regional flashpoints like the South China Sea. Domestically, the military’s expanded role in programs like food security and recent legal amendments increasing TNI involvement in civilian roles have raised concerns over militarisation. The transition from the Minimum Essential Force policy to the new Optimum Essential Force shows an ongoing gap in defense preparedness. A revised white paper must also account for cyber threats and technological developments. Additionally, reaffirming ASEAN centrality is vital for Indonesia to maintain strategic balance amid great power rivalries and act as a mediator in global conflicts. Aligning NDC’s functions with a renewed strategic framework is essential for securing Indonesia’s sovereignty and long-term stability. Marina Ika Sari, East Asia Forum, April 5
Autonomous Driving and Southeast Asia: Will It Hit the Road? Autonomous vehicle (AV) technology remains in its early stages in Southeast Asia due to infrastructure limitations, regulatory hurdles, and diverse traffic conditions. While countries like Singapore have made significant progress through government support and pilot programs, broader regional adoption is hindered by inconsistent policy frameworks and the lack of a unified roadmap. Urban congestion, informal driving norms, and varying road conditions across countries like Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam present substantial integration challenges for AV systems designed in more controlled environments. Moreover, public trust and data privacy concerns further complicate deployment. Despite these obstacles, the region shows growing interest in AVs, driven by potential benefits such as improved road safety, efficiency, and reduced emissions. Continued investment in digital infrastructure, cross-border collaboration, and adaptive regulation will be essential for Southeast Asia to realize the promise of autonomous mobility in the coming decades. Shi Youwei, Fulcrum, April 4
How Will Vietnam Deal With President Trump’s Shocking Tariffs? Vietnam faces significant economic and strategic challenges following President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods, which indirectly impact Vietnamese exports due to their integration into regional supply chains. As a key beneficiary of U.S.–China trade tensions during Trump’s first term, Vietnam now risks becoming collateral damage. The tariffs could prompt U.S. scrutiny of Vietnamese trade practices, especially in cases involving Chinese-origin products routed through Vietnam to evade duties. In response, Hanoi may accelerate the diversification of its trade partners, improve compliance with rules-of-origin standards, and deepen regional cooperation through frameworks like the CPTPP and RCEP. Strategically, Vietnam must balance its growing economic ties with the U.S. against maintaining stable relations with China. Domestically, the government may face pressure to support affected industries while maintaining its export-led growth model. How Vietnam navigates these tariffs will shape its economic resilience and geopolitical alignment in a changing global trade landscape. Le Hong Hiep, Fulcrum, April 5
Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Unlikely to End Well for Southeast Asia — or Anyone. President Trump’s declaration of a global “Liberation Day” against what he terms globalist institutions threatens to destabilize multilateral frameworks critical to Southeast Asia’s economic and strategic interests. His rhetoric targets the UN, WTO, and even NATO, suggesting a withdrawal or significant reduction in U.S. engagement. For Southeast Asia, which depends heavily on stable trade regimes, international law, and regional cooperation, such disruption could weaken economic resilience and diplomatic cohesion. ASEAN’s centrality may be challenged as member states navigate increased pressure to align with major powers. The move also risks emboldening unilateralism and undermining global governance norms, potentially triggering wider geopolitical fragmentation. The unpredictability of U.S. policy under this doctrine injects uncertainty into long-standing alliances and raises concerns about global security and economic order. Southeast Asian nations may need to bolster regional solidarity and diversify partnerships to mitigate the fallout from a diminished U.S. presence in multilateral affairs. Stephen Olson, Fulcrum, April 6