China
PLA upgrades ageing tanks with protection system for potential Taiwan operation. China has fitted Type 96A main battle tanks with the GL-6 active protection system to counter drones, missiles and rockets. The tanks belong to the PLA’s 71st Group Army under the Eastern Theatre Command, which is responsible for possible amphibious operations across the Taiwan Strait. The upgrade suggests broader standardisation of drone defences and preparation for assault landings, with the lighter Type 96 seen as better suited to transport by landing ships and hovercraft. Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, April 2.
Trump tariffs cast shadow as U.S.-China trade shrinks ahead of Xi meeting. Direct China-U.S. trade kept shrinking, with the U.S. goods deficit with China at $13.1 billion in February and the 2025 goods deficit down 30% to $202.1 billion. Chinese exports to the U.S. totalled $21.6 billion in February, while imports from the U.S. were $8.5 billion. The figures came before a planned leaders’ meeting in Beijing and as trade shifted toward Taiwan, Mexico, Vietnam and ASEAN. Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, April 2.
Japan
Japan, France see eye to eye on rare earths, safe Hormuz passage. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and President Emmanuel Macron agreed to deepen cooperation on rare earth and other critical mineral supply chains, ensure safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and maintain close communication on de-escalation in the Middle East. They also confirmed broader cooperation in nuclear energy, space, AI and defense. Takashi Ogawa and Susumu Sakamoto, The Asahi Shimbun, April 2
Japan emphasizes diplomacy for Iran resolution after Trump speech. Japan stressed diplomacy after President Donald Trump said the U.S. was nearing completion of its objectives in the war with Iran but could strike again within two to three weeks. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said Japan would keep working with the international community to de-escalate the crisis and was considering joining a 35-country meeting on restoring safe Hormuz passage. Kyodo News, April 2
South Korea
Lee reaffirms commitment to regain wartime command in meeting with U.S. lawmakers. President Lee Jae Myung told visiting U.S. lawmakers that South Korea aims to reduce the U.S. defense burden by regaining wartime operational control and strengthening its own capabilities. He also called for continued support for peace and denuclearization on the peninsula, closer coordination on global issues, and cooperation on nuclear energy, nuclear-powered submarines, shipbuilding, investment, and visas for skilled Korean workers. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, April 2
Lee, Macron set for summit to deepen bilateral cooperation. President Lee Jae Myung and President Emmanuel Macron are set to discuss advanced technologies, energy, and international coordination during Friday’s summit in Seoul. The two sides plan to upgrade their 2004 partnership to a global strategic partnership and sign memoranda of understanding. Lee also expressed hope for broader cooperation in AI, nuclear energy, and space during Macron’s two-day state visit. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, April 3
North Korea
Satellite imagery shows N. Korea appears to be speeding up construction of its 3rd 5,000-ton destroyer. Satellite imagery suggested North Korea was accelerating work on a third Choe Hyun-class 5,000-ton destroyer at Nampho, with large cranes and crane vessels active near the hull. Lawmaker Yoo Yong-won said the vessel appeared to be in a later construction stage, including the lifting of superstructures, radars, and weapons systems. Images also showed signs that the first destroyer was preparing for deployment, and Yoo linked the naval modernization drive to possible Russian assistance. Kim Hyun-soo, Yonhap News Agency, April 2
Vietnam
Preparations completed for first session of new National Assembly term. Vietnam said preparations for the first session of the 16th National Assembly were basically complete. The session will run from April 6 to 24 in two phases over 11 working days, with an eight-day recess. Lawmakers will address personnel, legislation, and major socio-economic issues, while Tran Thanh Man urged earlier food safety oversight. Vietnam News, April 2
NA Standing Committee wraps up 56th session. Vietnam’s National Assembly Standing Committee concluded its 56th session after finalizing key issues and saying preparations for the first sitting of the 16th National Assembly were largely complete. Tran Thanh Man said the upcoming session will decide state structures, senior personnel, five-year plans, and draft laws, and urged agencies to finish documents, logistics, and legal reviews on time. Vietnam News, April 2
Myanmar
Myanmar parliament to hold vote to elect president on Friday, house speaker says. Myanmar’s parliament will hold a bicameral vote on Friday to elect a president from among three vice-presidential candidates, with former junta chief Min Aung Hlaing in the running after stepping down as military commander. The vote follows a military-backed election widely dismissed by the United Nations and many Western countries as a sham. Devjyot Ghoshal, Reuters, April 2
Myanmar junta chief unveils EV trade-in plan for market led by his children. Min Aung Hlaing proposed a fuel-saving trade-in scheme requiring motorists to surrender older combustion-engine vehicles for access to imported EVs. The plan would channel more business to an EV market dominated by his children, while prices have already surged under fuel restrictions. The regime is promoting EVs despite chronic electricity shortages and blackouts. The Irrawaddy, April 2
Myanmar junta reopens key Thai border trade route amid security concerns. Myanmar reopened the Myawaddy-Hpa-an section of the Asian Highway to non-commercial traffic after more than two years, but residents and traders said continuing fighting still made the route unsafe. Trucks remain barred, leaving goods stranded and businesses dependent on costly mountain detours, even though the road is critical to trade with Thailand. Phoe Tar, The Irrawaddy, April 2
Philippines
Iran to allow PH oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz. Iran pledged safe, unhindered and expeditious passage through the Strait of Hormuz for Philippine-flagged vessels, energy sources and Filipino seafarers after a call between Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro and her Iranian counterpart. Manila said the assurance would help secure steady deliveries of oil and fertilizer as the Philippines copes with a fuel crisis and a state of national energy emergency. The Manila Times, April 2.
ICC to deliver ruling on Duterte jurisdiction appeal on April 22. The ICC Appeals Chamber said it will issue its judgment on April 22 on Rodrigo Duterte’s challenge to the court’s jurisdiction. Duterte is seeking to overturn a 2025 pre-trial ruling that rejected his argument that the tribunal lacks legal authority over the case. The appeal concerns the ICC investigation into killings linked to his anti-drug campaign from 2011 to 2019, when the Philippines was still a party to the Rome Statute for part of that period. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, April 2
Singapore
PM Wong warns of severe consequences from Middle East energy disruptions, convenes ministerial task force. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned that prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies and shipping routes could have severe consequences for Singapore and said a ministerial committee is updating contingency plans. He said Singapore is diversifying fuel and LNG sources, strengthening partnerships, preparing more support for households and businesses, and urging energy conservation. Vanessa Lim, Channel News Asia, April 2
Taiwan
Taiwan military says budget delay threatens $2.4 billion in weapons buying, training. Taiwan said delayed budget approval threatens T$78 billion ($2.44 billion) in weapons procurement, maintenance and training, including HIMARS, Javelin missiles and follow-on training for F-16s. The government plans to raise defence spending by 22.9% to T$949.5 billion, or 3.32% of GDP, but parliament has stalled passage. Officials also said upcoming Han Kuang drills would incorporate lessons from the Middle East war and other recent operations. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, April 2
U.S. senators introduce bill to boost Taiwan drone cooperation. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced the Blue Skies for Taiwan Act of 2026 to expand U.S.-Taiwan cooperation on drones and reduce reliance on China-linked supply chains. The bill would create a working group to assess Taiwan’s production capacity, identify integration opportunities, and speed certification for Taiwanese manufacturers and suppliers. Chang Hsin-yu and Wu Kuan-hsien, Focus Taiwan, April 2
Ex-aide faces DPP expulsion following espionage indictment. Taiwan’s ruling DPP Taipei chapter approved a resolution to expel Chu Cheng-chi after he was indicted for allegedly spying for China while working for Presidential Office Deputy Secretary-General Mark Ho. Prosecutors said Chu photographed classified documents and passed them to a person linked to the Chinese Communist Party for payment. The resolution still requires approval from party headquarters. Wen Kuei-hsiang, Huang Li-yun, and Sean Lin, Focus Taiwan, April 2
Taiwan to strengthen Pratas islands' defences as China steps up pressure. Taiwan said it will strengthen the Pratas islands’ defences as Chinese government vessels increase activity around the atoll and extend grey-zone pressure into new maritime areas. Officials said Taiwan has renovated the main island’s wharf, plans regular deployments of more capable vessels, and views Dongsha as important to an island defence system. In wartime, coast guard ships, including Anping-class corvettes, could be pressed into service. Ben Blanchard and Angie Teo, Reuters, April 2
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan, Ukraine reaffirm ties, eye trade revival and new logistics routes. Kazakhstan and Ukraine agreed in Astana to strengthen bilateral ties, revive trade, and explore new logistics links. Officials discussed trade, investment, agriculture, logistics, and humanitarian cooperation, while Ukraine thanked Kazakhstan for more than 600 tons of aid. Kyiv said trade had fallen from $5.5 billion before the war to about $500 million. Aida Haidar, The Astana Times, April 2
East Asia
In Its Iran War Debate, Washington Has Lost the Plot in Asia. The war with Iran has pushed fuel shocks across Asia, bringing airline crises in South Korea, school closures in Bangladesh and Pakistan, rationing in Vietnam, work-from-home orders in Malaysia, driving limits in Myanmar, and stalled water pumps in Thailand. Washington’s debate over China misses the budget, welfare, and energy strains facing Asian governments and households. Indonesia shows the bind. Prabowo’s government may cut a meals program or breach a deficit cap to preserve subsidies and other promises. Asia faces pressure from U.S. tariffs. Growth, employment, sustainability, energy security, social welfare, technological change, and living costs shape regional priorities, and those pressures can weaken support for U.S. strategy. Evan A. Feigenbaum, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 2
How China hopes to win from the war. Beijing sees the Iran war as a U.S. mistake that can speed talk of American decline, tie Washington down in the Middle East, and unsettle Asian partners that depend on the United States. Chinese officials treat the conflict as proof of Xi Jinping’s push for self-reliance in oil, power, technology, and supply chain choke points, backed by crude reserves, coal, nuclear, solar, wind, rare earth leverage, and support for Iran’s oil trade. Peace could bring rebuilding contracts and fresh demand for Chinese green technology. Beijing hopes a weakened Trump eases tariffs and export controls. Anxiety remains over U.S. use of artificial intelligence in war and the danger that global disorder could hit China’s export model. The Economist, April 1
The West continues to misread China’s partnerships. China’s ties with Venezuela and Iran took the form of transactions rather than alliances, so the fall of Maduro and the damage to Iran’s leadership do not carry the kind of reputational or security costs that would burden Washington. Beijing favors noninterference, economic statecraft, and freedom from entanglement. It used Caracas for loans linked to oil and Tehran for low-cost access and leverage. Its arms sales serve revenue, not alliance building. Venezuelan and Iranian oil hold a limited share in Chinese imports, and China has widened energy options through other suppliers and renewable capacity. Washington bears the aftermath in Venezuela while Beijing keeps room to maneuver. Zenel Garcia, East Asia Forum, April 2
Manus plight: Should AI companies start in China or overseas? Meta’s bid for Manus drew Chinese scrutiny, and two co-founders were barred from leaving China while regulators reviewed export, investment, and data rules. Manus had moved its headquarters to Singapore, cut its China workforce, and sought a path around both US restrictions and Chinese oversight. Beijing’s response signaled that a third-country registration does not erase a Chinese background when AI sits inside national security competition. The case shows how talent, data, technology, and capital fall under state boundaries. Chinese tech firms face a choice between a home market strategy and an overseas build with teams, data, and operations outside China from the start. Sim Tze Wei, ThinkChina, April 2
Fiscal shift from scale to structure. The 2026 Two Sessions kept fiscal support at a high level while diverting attention from headline scale to project structure and delivery. The deficit ratio stays at 4 percent, general public budget expenditure rises to C¥30 trillion, and local special bonds hold at C¥4.4 trillion. Beijing is giving the centre a larger stabilisation role and using three channels for distinct tasks: central budget investment, special long-term bonds for strategic and security projects, and a policy-finance tool that draws in matching finance. Priority is moving from concrete-heavy local expansion to national networks in transport, power, computing, communications, logistics, education, medical facilities, and other system-upgrade projects. The next buildout rests on state capacity over private capital. China Policy, April 2
U.S.-South Korea Relations Are at Breaking Point. James Laney’s March warning casts the alliance as near rupture after Washington imposed tariffs that broke prior terms, humiliated Hyundai engineers in Georgia, and showed no regard for South Korean interests. The Iran war deepened the strain. More than 70 percent of South Korea’s crude imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, so the blockade has brought fuel shortages, refinery shutdowns, naphtha and helium shortages, and stock market losses. The redeployment of THAAD from South Korea to the Middle East revived anger over the costs Seoul paid after China’s 2017 retaliation. Doubt over the U.S. security guarantee is feeding debate over wartime command, nuclear arms, and ties with China. S. Nathan Park, Foreign Policy, April 2
Southeast Asia
How British companies profit from West Papuan repression. British arms exports, jungle warfare training, mining finance, gas development, and plantation investment tie Britain to repression in West Papua. Conflict over sovereignty and industrial expansion has brought killings, torture, disappearances, and the displacement of 60,000 to 100,000 people since 2018. The Grasberg mine displaced Indigenous communities, damaged a sacred mountain, and releases about 300,000 tons of tailings each day, while London markets handle its gold and copper. British investors hold stakes in palm oil plantations, and Unilever sources palm oil from two mills in the territory. BP’s Tangguh gas facility forced village relocation, threatens major mangrove forests, and has faced accusations of security links that target Papuan communities and activists. Samira Homerang Saunders, David Whyte, East Asia Forum, April 1
Squeezed From Both Sides: Prabowo’s Fiscal Reckoning and Governance Implications. Indonesia’s 2026 budget assumptions broke down after oil rose above $100 a barrel and the rupiah moved past 17,000 per dollar, pushing the deficit beyond the legal 3 percent ceiling. Prabowo’s meals program, village cooperatives, territorial battalions, and higher energy subsidies had strained fiscal space before the Iran war shock. Revenues lag, debt service takes a large share of state income, and each rise in oil prices widens the spending gap. The government has cut fuel use, travel, and office work, but subsidy cuts or trims to flagship programs carry political costs. Fiscal stress could bring tighter central control, less transparency, and more repression of dissent. Yanuar Nugroho, FULCRUM, April 2