Asia Daily: April 29, 2024
News
South Korean Ministers, Australian PM Agree to Enhance Security, Defense Industry Cooperation. South Korea's foreign and defense ministers met with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra to discuss strengthening regional security and defense industry cooperation. The talks, which also involved Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, focused on strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, addressing North Korean issues, and advancing the "comprehensive strategic partnership" between the two nations. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, April 29
North Korea Installs Mines on Inter-Korean Road within DMZ. North Korea has been intensifying its security measures by installing land mines on inter-Korean roads within the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). This includes the Gyeongui road connecting Paju to Kaesong and the Donghae road along the east coast, roads historically symbolic of cooperation. These actions align with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s recent shift in policy, which redefines relations with South Korea as hostile, advocating for complete disconnection along the border. This move is part of broader efforts to dismantle joint projects, like the excavation of war remains near Arrowhead Hill under the 2018 military agreement. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, April 29
Election Trouncing a Blow to Kishida, But Snap Election Unlikely. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) achieved significant victories in three Lower House by-elections, marking a setback for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. These elections, influenced by a slush funds scandal, reflected a public dissatisfaction with Kishida, who is facing low approval rates. Despite these losses, LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi expressed a commitment to political reforms and economic issues rather than considering a snap general election. The results further highlight challenges within the LDP, exacerbated by internal conflicts and the dissolution of major factions, making leadership changes likely but complicated by weakened factional support. Eric Johnston, The Japan Times, April 29
Gov't to Deploy More Medical Staff as Senior Doctors at 5 Major Hospitals Take Weekly Breaks. Health Minister Cho Kyoo-hong announced plans to deploy additional medical staff as senior doctors at five major hospitals in Seoul begin taking weekly days off. This move comes amid ongoing medical reforms and a strike by trainee doctors that has disrupted public health services for over two months. The government aims to strengthen the emergency treatment system and mitigate patient care disruptions caused by sudden resignations or leaves. Despite the collective actions by doctors against increasing medical student numbers, the government remains committed to pushing forward with reforms. The affected hospitals include Asan Medical Center, Samsung Medical Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul National University Hospital, and Seoul St. Mary's Hospital. Kang Yoon-seung, Yonhap News Agency, April 29
Pro-China Leader Sogavare Pulls Out of Solomon Islands PM Race. Manasseh Sogavare, a pro-China leader in the Solomon Islands, has withdrawn from the prime ministerial race following the recent elections, where many of his party members lost their seats. Despite his own reelection, the significant losses within his party, Ownership, Unity and Responsibility (OUR), highlighted a demand for change. Consequently, Sogavare has stepped aside, allowing new leadership to emerge within his coalition, now including the People First Party and Kadere Party. Jeremiah Manele, former foreign minister and a supporter of Sogavare's pro-China policies, has been nominated by the coalition as their candidate for prime minister. The decision will be finalized in a parliamentary vote. During his tenure, Sogavare shifted the country’s allegiance from Taiwan to China, a move that has both bolstered and complicated international relations. Sophie Mak and Shaun Turton, Nikkei Asia, April 29
China's Xi to Visit France, Serbia, Hungary as Beijing Appears to Seek a Larger Role in Ukraine. Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to visit France, Serbia, and Hungary next week, marking his first European tour in five years. This trip is seen as an attempt by Beijing to play a more significant role in the Ukraine conflict, where China maintains a stance of neutrality despite its close ties with Russia. Xi’s tour will include discussions that might influence global political dynamics, especially in light of his "no limits friendship" with Russia and the ongoing military tensions involving Ukraine. The visit follows recent engagements between U.S. and Chinese officials. AP News, April 29
Philippine Students Are Told to Stay Home as Southeast Asia Copes with a Sweltering Heat Wave. Southeast Asia is currently experiencing a severe heat wave, with record-high temperatures prompting several countries to issue urgent health warnings and close schools. In the Philippines, authorities canceled in-person classes for millions of students for two days due to health risks from extreme heat, leading to a switch to home-based and online learning. Cambodia is facing its highest temperatures in 170 years, with forecasts predicting up to 43°C (109°F). Myanmar reported temperatures breaking previous records, reaching up to 48.2°C (118.8°F). The heat has resulted in health concerns, including heatstroke, which has already claimed lives across the region. Thailand reported at least 30 heatstroke deaths this year, while Cambodia reported no heat-related deaths. The heat wave has also sparked fears of water shortages, power outages, and agricultural damage across affected areas. Jim Gomez, AP News, April 29
Long Form
Why India’s Global South Ambitions Must Turn to Southeast Asia. India's influence in Southeast Asia has been modest, ranking ninth among ASEAN's dialogue partners, highlighting regional doubts about India's capacity for global leadership. Despite its recognized potential to balance power amid U.S.-China strategic rivalry, Southeast Asia's mistrust towards India persists, often viewing it as too focused on domestic and sub-continental issues. India's recent tenure as G20 chair showcased its growing capabilities and intention to lead the Global South, yet its engagement with Southeast Asia remains lukewarm. ASEAN itself has been inward-looking, preoccupied with domestic issues and outdated mechanisms, missing opportunities to position itself significantly within the Global South narrative. The misalignment between India’s international ambitions and Southeast Asia’s recognition of these efforts suggests a need for India to strengthen ties with ASEAN to enhance its role in regional and global geopolitics. Rahul Mishra and Yanitha Meena Louis, The Interpreter, April 29
How China Became the World’s Clean Tech Giant. China's strategic investment in renewable energy technologies, particularly in solar, wind, and electric vehicles, has established it as a global leader in clean technology. In 2023, the clean energy sector contributed approximately 40 percent of China’s GDP growth, amounting to around $1.6 trillion. Over the past decade, China's investments in photovoltaic (PV) capacity surpassed $50 billion, which is tenfold the investment made by all of Europe. This financial commitment has not only enhanced China's energy independence but also generated over 300,000 manufacturing jobs within the solar PV supply chain. Today, China controls over 80 percent of all manufacturing stages of solar panels, from polysilicon to modules, showcasing its dominance and leadership in the global clean energy sector. Rakshith Shetty, The Diplomat, April 27
Strategic Choices: Will Pakistan-India Normalize Relations in 2024? Normalization of relations between Pakistan and India appears unlikely in 2024 unless significant geopolitical changes occur. The recent general elections in both countries have not altered their diplomatic stances, especially concerning the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region. The election of Shehbaz Sharif as Pakistan's Prime Minister has not thawed relations, evidenced by the formal but cool exchanges between him and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Historical tensions, particularly since India’s 2019 abrogation of Kashmir’s autonomy, continue to hinder any significant rapprochement. Despite the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz's (PMLN) historical advocacy for better relations with India, practical progress remains elusive. Syed Adnan Bukhari, Khurram Abbas, The Diplomat, April 29
China, Fiji and the Fentanyl Scourge. Fiji has emerged as a node in the global illicit drug trade, specifically involving fentanyl, highlighting a more controversial aspect of China's influence in the Pacific. Since the early 2000s, Fiji's strategic location and role as a regional hub have made it a focal point for China’s efforts to extend its reach across the Pacific Islands. This engagement has brought not only geopolitical advantages but also substantial challenges, including Fiji’s increasing entanglement in drug trafficking issues that impact the region. This situation is indicative of the complex dynamics at play as Fiji navigates its significant geopolitical role amidst rising global tensions and its own internal challenges related to security. Patricia O’Brien, The Diplomat, April 27
Vulnerable Cloud Services Cast Shadow Over National Security. Concerns are growing about the security of cloud services, particularly their ability to handle sensitive personal and national data securely. A joint survey by Nikkei and Tokyo security assessment company Assured reveals that about half of the cloud service providers, both in Japan and internationally, do not have adequate internal guidelines for responding to regulatory or official requests for user data. Additionally, some providers store data on servers located in China and Russia, raising concerns about censorship and security. This lack of stringent privacy policies among many vendors highlights significant risks in the digital society’s increasing reliance on cloud outsourcing. Atsushi Teraoka, Nikkei Asia, April 27
U.S. 'Nonlethal' Aid for Myanmar's Ethnic Armies Likely to Backfire. The U.S. decision to provide 'nonlethal' aid to Myanmar's ethnic armies could potentially exacerbate the ongoing conflict rather than stabilize the region. Since the military coup in February 2021, ethnic armed groups have made significant battlefield gains, suggesting the military regime is losing its grip. However, the introduction of U.S. support, even if nonlethal, might increase violence and have costly repercussions for all involved parties. This raises concerns about the potential for escalating conflict rather than fostering peace and stability in Myanmar. Michael Haack, Nikkei Asia, April 29
Seismic Shifts Coming for Fiji’s Drug Policy. Fiji is experiencing a severe drug epidemic, prompting a significant shift in the government's approach to drug policy. Pio Tikoduadua, Fiji’s Minister for Home Affairs, has outlined the need for a multifaceted strategy, spearheaded by a new narcotics and drug enforcement bureau. Despite ongoing efforts by law enforcement, Fiji's battle against drugs has been hampered by various factors, including global demand, porous borders, and previous policy shortcomings. The new strategy will require more than just law enforcement; it emphasizes community prevention, rehabilitation, and improved coordination between law enforcement and community organizations. This holistic approach aims to address both the supply and demand sides of drug abuse, recognizing the need for educational programs and community engagement to effectively combat the issue. Jay Caldwell, East Asia Forum, April 29
Can Yoon’s Global Pivot Survive the Elections? South Korea's parliamentary elections have posed significant challenges for President Yoon Suk-yeol, whose party faced a substantial defeat. The opposition Democratic Party, alongside its progressive allies, now controls a dominant majority in the National Assembly, potentially complicating Yoon’s efforts to sustain his foreign policy initiatives. Key aspects of Yoon’s policy, such as the strengthening of alliances with the US and Japan and efforts to play a more central role in global geopolitics, might now face strong domestic opposition. The opposition favors focusing more on domestic issues and is critical of Yoon’s perceived pro-US and anti-China stance. These domestic challenges, coupled with geopolitical tensions and differing public perceptions on international relations, raise questions about the continuity and effectiveness of Yoon’s global strategy going forward. Daniel Sneider, East Asia Forum, April 28
Time for ASEAN to Stand Up in the South China Sea. ASEAN's response—or lack thereof—to China's assertive actions in the South China Sea has been notably absent, despite clear violations of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia by China. This treaty emphasizes mutual respect for sovereignty and peaceful dispute resolution, principles that China's actions contravene. ASEAN’s silence undermines its credibility and the perceived effectiveness of its collective voice in regional security matters. To maintain relevance and assertiveness, ASEAN must support the Philippines against China's territorial claims explicitly. Such a stance is necessary not only to uphold international law but also to reinforce ASEAN's central role in regional geopolitics without escalating tensions unnecessarily. Trystanto Sanjaya, East Asia Forum, April 27