Asia Daily: April 25, 2024
News
Taiwan’s president-elect appoints new foreign, defense ministers as island faces continued threats. Taiwan’s president-elect, Lai Ching-te, has announced new appointments for his administration's key roles in foreign and defense ministries as the island continues to face military threats and diplomatic isolation from China. Lin Chia-lung will assume the role of foreign minister, while Wellington Koo will head the Defense Ministry, both tasked with strengthening Taiwan's defenses amid escalating tensions. These strategic appointments aim to bolster Taiwan's response to China's aggressive stances and diplomatic maneuvers aimed at isolating the island internationally. AP News, April 25
China launches 3-member crew to its space station as it seeks to put astronauts on the moon by 2030. On Thursday, China advanced its space exploration ambitions by launching a three-member crew to its Tiangong space station aboard the Shenzhou-18 spacecraft, which lifted off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. This mission is a crucial step towards China's goal of landing astronauts on the moon by 2030. The crew, consisting of Commander Ye Guangfu and fighter pilots Li Cong and Li Guangsu, will replace the Shenzhou-17 team and spend six months conducting scientific tests and other tasks. Andy Wong and Simina Mistreanu, AP News, April 25
Dollar at 34-yr. highs in upper 155 yen as intervention line tested. The U.S. dollar has reached a 34-year high, trading in the upper 155 yen range, testing levels that could prompt intervention from Japanese financial authorities. This significant rise reflects ongoing strength in the U.S. economy and monetary policy differences between the U.S. and Japan, where the latter has maintained lower interest rates. Japanese officials are closely monitoring the situation, as sustained strength of the dollar against the yen poses challenges for Japan's economy, potentially affecting exports and inflation. Kyodo News, April 25
Blinken raises Chinese trade practices in meetings with officials in the financial hub of Shanghai. During his visit to Shanghai, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed concerns over China's trade practices with local officials, emphasizing the need for fair economic competition and a level playing field for U.S. entities. Blinken met with Communist Party Secretary Chen Jining, addressing issues related to non-market practices and the bilateral trade imbalance. Despite existing tensions over human rights and Taiwan, both sides acknowledged the importance of people-to-people ties and pledged to work towards stable economic relations. Blinken's meetings in Shanghai precede further discussions in Beijing, aiming to responsibly manage U.S.-China relations amidst global geopolitical challenges. Matthew Lee, AP News, April 25
No imminent US sanctions on Chinese banks for Russia trade: Yellen. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has stated that there are no immediate plans to impose sanctions on Chinese banks over their transactions with Russia, despite ongoing concerns. This announcement was made during Yellen's discussions with Chinese officials, where the primary focus has been on maintaining financial stability while addressing security issues involving Russia. Yellen emphasized the importance of diplomatic engagement and financial oversight rather than punitive measures, indicating a strategic approach to handle complex international relations amid heightened tensions. Ji Siqi, South China Morning Post, April 25
Kazakhstan likely to insist on revisions to Kashagan oil contracts. Kazakhstan is poised to push for significant revisions in the contracts governing the massive Kashagan oil field, one of the largest global oil discoveries in the last 40 years. These proposed changes aim to increase national benefits and ensure greater local involvement in the project. The government's move reflects a broader strategy to enhance control over its natural resources and boost economic returns from its oil sector. Times of Central Asia, April 25
Japan committed to act appropriately on weak yen: finance minister. Japan's Finance Minister has reiterated the government's commitment to taking necessary actions concerning the fluctuating yen exchange rates. Amid concerns over the yen's recent weakness, the finance chief emphasized that there will be no change in the government's approach to intervene as appropriate to stabilize the currency. This statement comes as Japan faces economic challenges influenced by global market dynamics and domestic fiscal policies. The government's proactive stance aims to prevent further volatility and ensure economic stability in the face of fluctuating exchange rates. Kyodo News, April 25
Public Security Ministry looks to strengthen effectiveness of international treaty implementation. Vietnam's Ministry of Public Security is intensifying its efforts to enhance the implementation of international treaties in the country. This initiative aims to improve the effectiveness of treaty enforcement, particularly those related to security and law enforcement cooperation. This strategic push also involves increasing the ministry's capabilities and cooperation with international partners to ensure more robust and effective compliance with global standards. Vietnam News, April 25
Vladimir Putin to visit China in May, as Moscow seeks to strengthen ties with Beijing. Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced plans to visit China in May, signaling a continued strengthening of ties between Russia and China amidst global geopolitical tensions. This upcoming visit is expected to include discussions on deepening bilateral cooperation across various sectors, including economic partnerships and strategic alignments. Putin's announcement comes at a time when both nations are facing increased scrutiny and pressure from Western countries over their foreign policies and actions in regions like Ukraine and the South China Sea. South China Morning Post, April 25
China taking preventative measures to head off US secondary sanction threat. In response to the increasing threat of U.S. secondary sanctions, China is proactively implementing measures to protect its economic interests. These efforts are aimed at insulating Chinese companies from the repercussions of U.S. sanctions, which could target entities engaging in significant transactions with sanctioned sectors, such as the Iranian oil industry. Eurasianet, April 24
Vietnamese, Philippine coast guards convene first conference. In a landmark move, the coast guards of Vietnam and the Philippines held their inaugural conference, marking a significant step in maritime cooperation between the two nations. This meeting, part of broader efforts to bolster regional security and manage disputes in the South China Sea, focused on enhancing joint training, information sharing, and operational coordination. Both countries emphasized the importance of this partnership in promoting safe and secure maritime environments, crucial for their shared economic and security interests in the region. Vietnam News, April 25
Be wary of China's 'gentle approach,' expert warns. Former United States Air Force colonel and SeaLight Director Raymond Powell has issued a warning regarding China's diplomatic strategy, which he describes as a 'gentile approach' meant to subtly further its regional goals. Powell emphasized that while China's actions might appear less aggressive, they are part of a strategic effort to enhance its influence, particularly in areas like the South China Sea. He urges nations interacting with China to remain cautious and not be swayed by its seemingly benign tactics. Aric John Sy Cua, The Manila Times, April 25
Long Form
A Closer Look at South Korea's 22nd National Assembly Elections. South Korea's recent National Assembly elections marked a shift, with the Democratic Party (DP) securing a majority of 187 seats out of 300. The conservative People Power Party (PPP), led by President Yoon Suk Yeol, captured only 108 seats, potentially rendering him a lame duck for the remainder of his term. The elections showed voter discontent over socioeconomic issues such as rising prices, unemployment, and housing costs. Political volatility was also evident, including an assassination attempt on a former presidential candidate. These factors contributed to a highly contentious election cycle with high voter turnout, both domestically and from abroad. Looking ahead, the DP's dominance in the National Assembly may challenge President Yoon's legislative agenda, particularly in domestic policy, while he may focus more on foreign policy, where he seeks to strengthen ties in the Indo-Pacific and maintain a firm stance on North Korea. Emma Whitmyer, Asia Society, April 24
China’s Battle Against Air Pollution: An Update. China has made notable progress in combating air pollution, particularly in reducing PM2.5 levels, which have dropped since the aggressive anti-pollution campaign started in 2013. However, despite these advances, challenges remain, such as the resurgence of PM2.5 levels in 2023 and an inadequate response to rising ozone concentrations. Additionally, China’s increased reliance on coal following electricity shortages has raised concerns about the sustainability of its pollution control measures and its ability to meet climate goals. This shows that while China has made strides in improving air quality, the battle against pollution is far from over, with ongoing efforts needed to address multi-pollutant emissions and reduce dependency on fossil fuels. Yanzhong Huang, Council on Foreign Relations, April 24
For China’s Workers, 2024 Is the Year of Staying Put. In 2024, the trend of job hopping among white-collar workers in China has decreased due to a tougher job market and a shift towards valuing job stability over frequent changes. This year, a significant portion of China's workforce is choosing to stay in their current roles, a stark contrast to previous years when many confidently shifted jobs frequently, often improving their salaries in the process. Recruitment platform Zhaopin reports that many now find the prospect of finding a new job "very difficult," with active job seekers dropping by nearly 20 percentage points. Economic uncertainties and a desire for secure employment are driving more workers towards stable jobs, even in less economically developed areas, leading to a demographic shift away from China’s bustling coastal cities to its quieter interior. This trend reflects a broader shift in worker priorities and perceptions of what constitutes a desirable work-life balance in today's economic climate. Luo Yahan, Sixth Tone, April 25
Does Modi’s Anti-Muslim ‘Hate Speech’ Reflect Nervousness? In a recent election rally in Rajasthan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made controversial comments targeting the Muslim community, labeling them as "infiltrators" and those who proliferate excessively, suggesting that an opposition victory would lead to the redistribution of Hindu wealth to Muslims. This speech reflects a sharp, divisive strategy that could indicate Modi's nervousness about the electoral strength of his opposition amidst a politically charged environment. Such statements not only stoke communal tensions but also raise serious concerns about the use of divisive rhetoric in Indian politics. Snigdhendu Bhattacharya, The Diplomat, April 25
With Blinken in China, Beijing Deprioritizes Taiwan. During U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to China, the Chinese government appears to have softened its stance on Taiwan, despite maintaining that the U.S. must respect its "red line" on the island. This is notable against the backdrop of stabilizing China-U.S. relations, with less emphasis on Taiwan compared to previous interactions, such as the discussion points from President Xi Jinping's meeting with President Joe Biden last November. This suggests a strategic recalibration by Beijing in its diplomatic engagement with the United States, focusing on broader issues of bilateral cooperation and potentially de-escalating tensions surrounding Taiwan. Jasmine Lee, The Diplomat, April 25
Kishida may pay a price, but has handled LDP scandal shrewdly. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has managed a significant political scandal within his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with strategic finesse, despite potential personal political costs. The scandal, centered on the funding of LDP factions, prompted Kishida to make a bold move by voluntarily testifying and dissolving his own faction, which led other factions to follow suit. This could mark the end of factional politics in the LDP, potentially transforming Japanese politics towards a more policy-oriented direction. Kishida's actions might strengthen his position by reducing factional power within the party, thereby allowing more independent legislative decisions. However, the upcoming LDP presidential vote will be a critical test of whether his strategy will solidify his leadership or undermine it. Kiyoteru Tsutsui, Nikkei Asia, April 25
The ulterior motive behind Xi Jinping's latest military reforms. Xi Jinping's recent restructuring of China's Strategic Support Force into three separate units reveals a deeper strategic intent possibly linked to his aspirations for a fourth term. Initially established as a cutting-edge military unit in 2015, the force was unexpectedly disbanded and reorganized just nine years later. This reorganization aligns with Xi's long-term control over military loyalty and may be leveraged to enhance his political position at the upcoming Communist Party congress. Historically, Xi has used military reforms and anti-corruption purges to consolidate power, as seen in his actions against high-ranking military officials and in constitutional changes that eliminated presidential term limits. The dissolution of the Strategic Support Force, once a symbol of military modernization and strength, may reflect Xi's ongoing efforts to centralize authority and secure his political future. Katsuji Nakazawa, Nikkei Asia, April 25
Taiwan's Lai should not overlook 'new south' neighbors. As Taiwan's incoming president, Lai Ching-te faces significant foreign policy decisions, notably whether to continue the New Southbound Policy (NSP) initiated by President Tsai Ing-wen. This policy has strengthened Taiwan's ties with Southeast Asia, Australia, and New Zealand, reducing its economic dependence on China. Despite its successes, Lai has not prominently featured the NSP in his policy discussions, raising concerns about its future under his administration. Maintaining the NSP is crucial, not only for its economic benefits but also for its geopolitical significance, especially in light of China's assertive regional posture. The policy's continuation could bolster Taiwan's international relations and enhance its strategic position in the Asia-Pacific region. Ratih Kabinawa, Nikkei Asia, April 25
Australia’s coming battles in the US–China tech war. Australia is positioned at the crossroads of the escalating US-China tech rivalry, which encompasses not just a competition for technological supremacy but broader geopolitical shifts impacting global economic and security landscapes. As technological nationalism intensifies, each nation is prioritizing the development and safeguarding of domestic technological capabilities, which could potentially lead to a tech decoupling. Australia must navigate these challenges carefully, leveraging its unique position with ties to both the US and China. Australia must engage in flexible diplomatic strategies and independent industrial policies to maintain its scientific partnerships and further its national interests without becoming overly dependent on either of the global powers. Marina Yue Zhang, East Asia Forum, April 25
Thailand’s soft power splash requires clarity and coherence. Thailand, under the leadership of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, is focusing on enhancing its soft power to rejuvenate its economy and boost tourism. This initiative comes as the country tries to recover from a decline in regional influence due to prolonged political instability. The government's National Soft Power Strategy Committee has been expanding on the '5 Fs' policy (food, films, fashion, fighting, and festivals), introducing unique initiatives like extending the Songkran festival to a month-long event. However, despite these efforts, Thailand's global soft power ranking remains moderate. The effectiveness of these government-led initiatives in genuinely boosting Thailand's image and influence abroad is questionable, particularly given the ongoing governance and political challenges. As Thailand attempts to reshape its international identity, it must carefully balance its strategies to ensure they align with both domestic realities and international perceptions. William Jones, East Asia Forum, April 25