Asia Daily: April 22, 2024
News
Chinese general takes a harsh line on Taiwan and other disputes at an international naval gathering. At the Western Pacific Naval Symposium in Qingdao, China's Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Zhang Youxia, emphasized China's resolve to defend its territorial claims. Amidst discussions on maritime disputes and military expansion, Zhang reiterated China's stance on Taiwan and other territorial conflicts, stating China will counter any provocations robustly. This statement underscores the ongoing tension in the region, particularly in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Ng Han Guan and Christopher Bodeen, AP News, April 22
BOJ chief points to hiking interest rates if inflation keeps rising. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank might raise interest rates if inflation continues to rise. This statement comes after a modest rate hike in March, the first in 17 years, as Japan grapples with inflation still below the desired 2% target. Ueda's comments were made during a talk at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, highlighting the BOJ's flexible policy approach based on economic data. Kyodo News, April 20
Uzbek refineries shift from Kazakh to Russian oil for cost savings. Uzbekistan's oil refineries are increasingly importing Russian crude oil, significantly reducing their reliance on costlier Kazakh supplies. This transition, evident from the nearly sevenfold increase in Russian oil imports during the first quarter of 2024, is influenced by economic factors and the global price cap on Russian oil. This strategic move aligns with Uzbekistan's efforts to optimize energy costs amidst changing regional economic landscapes. The Times of Central Asia, April 22
16K US, PH troops start Balikatan drills. Approximately 16,000 U.S. and Philippine troops have commenced the Balikatan military exercises aimed at strengthening interoperability and readiness across various domains. This year's drills include participation from warships from the United States, Australia, France, and the Philippines, and cover areas such as external defense, cyber defense, counter-terrorism, and humanitarian assistance. Francisco Tuyay, The Manila Times, April 22
Chinese foreign minister arrives in Cambodia, Beijing’s closest Southeast Asian ally. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is in Cambodia to reinforce ties with this key regional ally. His visit involves discussions with Cambodia’s new leadership on strategic projects, including a controversial canal and a naval base, highlighting China’s deep economic and strategic influence in Cambodia. These projects have raised international concerns over their potential military implications. Sopheng Cheang, AP News, April 22
Police book 372 in Seoul over alleged election law violations. In Seoul, 372 individuals have been investigated for alleged election law violations, with 17 potentially facing indictment. The charges mainly involve spreading false propaganda and accepting bribes, according to Seoul's Police Chief Cho Ji-ho. A significant case includes 10 people booked for creating or spreading a doctored video of President Yoon Suk Yeol. The police aim to conclude these investigations within three months. Kim Hyun-soo, Yonhap News Agency, April 22
Pro-China party on course for landslide victory in Maldives election. In the Maldives, the opposition led by Mohamed Muizzu, who aligns with pro-China policies, is poised for a landslide victory, potentially reshaping the nation's foreign policy dynamics, particularly its relationships with India and China. This election outcome reflects significant shifts in voter sentiment and could alter the strategic alliances in the Indian Ocean region, especially given the previous government's closer ties with India. Al Jazeera, April 22
Kyrgyzstan makes inroads into Silicon Valley. Kyrgyzstan is advancing its technological sector by launching the High Technology Park (HTP) House in Silicon Valley. Opened by Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov, this initiative is designed to connect Kyrgyz IT professionals with leading global tech companies, including Apple and Nvidia. This venture aims to cultivate IT expertise within Kyrgyzstan and draw international investment, positioning the country as a burgeoning tech hub. The Times of Central Asia, April 22
Blinken says genocide in Xinjiang is ongoing in report ahead of China visit. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity against Uyghurs and other minorities in Xinjiang, in a recent human rights report. This statement comes as Blinken prepares for talks in China, addressing issues including human rights alongside discussions on global trade and the war in Ukraine. The U.S. continues to accuse China of severe human rights abuses despite Chinese denials. Simon Lewis, Reuters, April 22
North Korea fires suspected short-range missiles into the sea in its latest weapons test. North Korea conducted a test of suspected short-range ballistic missiles, launching them into the sea, escalating regional tensions. These missiles traveled approximately 300 kilometers, indicating potential threats to South Korean targets. South Korea and Japan strongly condemned the tests, with Japan raising concerns about regional and international peace. This move comes amidst North Korea's continued weapons tests, aiming to leverage military advancements in stalled diplomatic engagements. Hyung-jin Kim and Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, April 22
Growth rates set to slow in Caucasus and Central Asia, warns World Bank. Economic growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia is anticipated to slow, with significant impacts expected from the ongoing global economic challenges and regional issues. The World Bank's analysis highlights that both regions are grappling with economic instability, exacerbated by dependencies on remittances and energy exports, which are sensitive to global market fluctuations. The downturn is partly due to reduced remittances from Russia, a major economic lifeline, amidst its own economic struggles. Brawley Besnon, Eurasianet, April 22
Fourth SIDS International Conference labelled 'last chance' to safeguard vulnerable islands. The upcoming Fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is crucial for addressing their unique vulnerabilities, especially in the context of climate change and economic instability. Antigua and Barbuda's diplomat emphasized the conference as a pivotal opportunity for SIDS to advocate for sustainable development and secure necessary international support. The conference aims to finalize commitments to help SIDS tackle significant challenges like climate change impacts and economic volatility. Pita Ligaiula, PINA, April 20
More Southeast Asian ties not easy: report. Taiwan's ambition to strengthen relations with Southeast Asian countries may face challenges due to China's growing influence in the region, reports Nikkei Asia. President-elect William Lai aims to build on the New Southbound Policy to enhance ties with 18 countries through economic collaboration and cultural exchanges. Despite successful investments and initiatives, the region's proximity to China and the nuanced diplomatic landscape could complicate these efforts. Liu Tzu-hsuan, Taipei Times, April 22
Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan to make working visit to Indonesia. Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan is set for a significant working visit to Indonesia, meeting with key leaders including President Joko Widodo and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto. The visit aims to deepen strategic ties and enhance cooperation across various sectors, reinforcing Singapore’s commitment to strengthening bilateral relations and regional security. Channel News Asia, April 22
Vietnamese, Lao PMs join in working session in Hà Nội. Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính and Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone met in Hà Nội to discuss deepening the bilateral relations between their countries. They reviewed progress in sectors like defense, security, and economic cooperation, including a substantial increase in trade. Both leaders committed to further enhancing their partnership, emphasizing defense and security as crucial areas of collaboration. Vietnam News, April 22
Move Forward seeks to rein in military 'super board'. The Move Forward Party (MFP) in Thailand is advocating for legislative changes to reduce the power of the defense 'super board' that influences military promotions and reshuffles. The party's proposal aims to diminish the board's dominance, which has been a mechanism enabling military involvement in politics. This initiative is part of broader efforts by the MFP to ensure civilian oversight of the military and to prevent potential coups. Aekarach Sattaburuth and Wassana Nanuam, Bangkok Post, April 22
Long Form
The Bottom is Falling out for Myanmar’s Junta. The Myanmar military, known as the Tatmadaw, is experiencing significant internal challenges, with increased defections and losses in conflicts with local militias and ethnic armed groups. These issues raise serious doubts about the junta's ability to maintain control over the country. The military took power in a coup in February 2021, leading to widespread civil unrest and international condemnation. The instability within the military itself is now becoming more apparent, suggesting a potential weakening of the junta's grip on power. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, April 22
Why Indians Want Modi Again: Understanding the BJP’s Popularity. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, resonates strongly with the aspirations of many Indians, who seek to see their nation as a prominent military and economic global power. This vision aligns well with Modi's leadership, under which the BJP is poised to secure a significant victory in India's ongoing general elections. Modi's immense popularity, with a remarkable approval rating, positions him as one of the world's most favored leaders. Opinion polls suggest a landslide win for the BJP, indicating widespread public approval of their governance and Modi's policies, which are seen as progressive and conducive to national pride and development. Akhilesh Pillalamarri, The Diplomat, April 19
Comparing Gray-Zone Tactics in the Red Sea and the South China Sea. Amid turbulent times at sea, gray-zone tactics are increasingly used by actors to advance interests without overt conflict. The Houthis and China employ similar tactics in the Red Sea and South China Sea, respectively, despite different contexts. The Houthis target maritime traffic to pressure Western nations over Middle East politics, while China uses lawfare and assertive presence to enforce territorial claims at Second Thomas Shoal. Both cases highlight the challenge of responding to actions that blur legal and military lines, underscoring the need for coordinated international responses to preserve maritime security and uphold international law.
Thomas Lim, Eric Ang The Diplomat April 20
Reconceptualizing Asia’s Security Challenges. As the economic and strategic focus shifts toward Asia, the region faces significant challenges in maintaining peace among rising geopolitical tensions. Key areas like Taiwan, the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, and the China-India border serve as major flashpoints. The traditional view that hegemonic economic power brings prosperity and peace is increasingly questioned, showing the need for a nuanced understanding of economic interdependence and its impact on regional stability. Jean Dong, The Diplomat, April 22
Japan's big cities become magnets for inherited rural savings. In Japan, a trend is emerging where inherited rural savings, estimated to be worth nearly 60 trillion yen, are being targeted by major banks in urban areas. This migration of funds over the next 30 years poses a serious challenge to regional 'shinkin' banks that traditionally rely on these deposits to sustain their operations. As interest rates rise, larger banks in big cities are becoming increasingly attractive to those inheriting money, offering higher interest rates to lure deposits away from rural institutions. This shift could destabilize smaller rural banks and alter the financial landscape of Japan's banking sector. Kensuke Yuasa and Sora Kitajima, Nikkei Asia, April 20
Taiwan's Lai needs to rethink nuclear shutdown plan. Taiwan faces a critical juncture in energy policy as President-elect Lai Ching-te is urged to reconsider the Democratic Progressive Party's commitment to a nuclear-free homeland. The push to phase out nuclear power, despite its reliability, clashes with Taiwan's growing energy demands, driven by its robust manufacturing sector, particularly semiconductors. Recent blackouts underscore the grid's inability to keep pace with consumption, raising concerns about the viability of replacing nuclear capacity with renewable sources, which remain underdeveloped. With geopolitical tensions and economic pressures mounting, a strategic pivot to sustain nuclear energy might be imperative to ensure Taiwan's energy security and economic stability. Jordan McGillis, Nikkei Asia, April 22
Towns Cut Off as ‘Once-in-a-Century’ Floods Engulf South China. Severe floods have caused significant disruption across southern China, particularly in Guangdong province, following extreme rainfall that began on April 18, 2024. The catastrophic weather has affected millions, leaving over one million households without power, halting hundreds of flights, and challenging rescue operations. The floods, described by local authorities as a "once-in-a-century" event, have resulted in at least four deaths and ten missing persons. The intensity of the flooding, especially in the northern regions of Guangdong, has inundated homes, disrupted communications, and triggered landslides, severely hampering rescue efforts. Emergency measures and ongoing rain predict more challenges ahead, with the government maintaining stringent flood control efforts. Ye Zhanhang, Sixth Tone, April 22
First BrahMos Missile Delivery Enters India Philippines Orbit. India's first delivery of BrahMos missiles to the Philippines marks a significant development in regional defense dynamics and Manila's military modernization efforts. This event, which is part of a $375 million contract signed in January 2022 for three batteries of shore-based, anti-ship BrahMos missiles, underscores the Philippines' strategic pivot from its earlier alignment towards China under President Rodrigo Duterte's administration. The timing of this delivery coincides with an active period in the Philippines' security engagements, including the largest U.S.-Philippine military exercise, Balikatan, which has seen increasing international participation. The acquisition of BrahMos missiles is viewed as a critical step in boosting the Philippines' coastal defense capabilities, particularly against assertive moves by China in the South China Sea. This move not only enhances the security framework of the Philippines but also strengthens India's role as a key defense partner in Southeast Asia.
, ASEAN Wonk April 21