Asia Daily: April 2, 2025

China

Russian, Chinese foreign ministers discuss Iran’s nuclear program and Korea, Russia says. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi held talks in Moscow covering Iran’s nuclear program, the Korean Peninsula, and Central Asia. The meeting, described as friendly and open, emphasized shared views on key bilateral and global issues. Russia reiterated that nuclear negotiations with Iran should only resume under mutual respect and full sanctions relief. The diplomats also discussed the Ukraine conflict and the need for a lasting peace. Lidia Kelly, Reuters, April 1

In a first for China’s Communist Party, Politburo members Li Ganjie and Shi Taifeng swap jobs. For the first time in Communist Party history, Politburo members Li Ganjie and Shi Taifeng have exchanged posts, with Li becoming head of the United Front Work Department and Shi leading the Organisation Department. Both men joined the Politburo in 2022 and had only recently assumed their prior roles. The move places Li in charge of party outreach and influence efforts, while Shi now oversees appointments and promotions of senior officials. South China Morning Post, April 2

PLA drills a stern warning, strong deterrent against Taiwan independence forces: FM spokesperson. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the People’s Liberation Army’s joint drills around Taiwan are a necessary and legitimate response to separatist actions, labeling them a stern warning and strong deterrent. Spokesperson Guo Jiakun reiterated that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China and external interference is unacceptable. He condemned the Democratic Progressive Party’s push for independence through foreign backing, calling reunification with Taiwan an inevitable historical trend. Global Times, April 1

Japan

Ishiba to step up responses to mitigate Trump’s auto tariffs. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Japan will press the U.S. for exemption from upcoming 25% auto import tariffs and may negotiate directly with President Donald Trump. He promised support for small and midsize firms, including 1,000 consultation offices and stronger fundraising assistance. At a press conference, Ishiba also apologized again for distributing gift certificates to new lawmakers, acknowledged public backlash, and dismissed speculation about dissolving the Lower House or forming a coalition. The Asahi Shimbun, April 1

No rest for weary Ishiba as challenges await in parliament. After securing passage of Japan’s record budget, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba now faces mounting pressure in the remainder of the parliamentary session. At a news conference marking six months in office, Ishiba apologized for the controversy over distributing gift vouchers to freshman lawmakers and pledged continued cooperation with opposition parties. He emphasized his government’s commitment to thorough and fair legislative debate as it navigates growing scrutiny. Gabriele Ninivaggi, The Japan Times, April 1

South Korea

South Korea’s Constitutional Court will rule Friday on Yoon’s impeachment. South Korea’s Constitutional Court will deliver its ruling Friday on whether to remove or reinstate President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was impeached for briefly imposing martial law in December. The court requires support from six of eight justices to uphold impeachment. If upheld, a new election must occur within two months. Yoon’s move to deploy troops to the National Assembly sparked public backlash and revived memories of past dictatorships. Hyung-jin Kim and Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, April 1

Opposition leader expects ‘reasonable’ verdict on Yoon’s impeachment. Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung said Wednesday he expects the Constitutional Court to deliver a just ruling on President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment, citing constitutional duties and democratic values. Speaking from a protest site in Seoul, Lee called the court the “highest and last bastion” of constitutional order and urged it to act decisively against Yoon’s martial law declaration. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, April 2

North Korea

North Korea denounces U.S., Japan's pledge to co-produce missiles on Hegseth visit. North Korea condemned the U.S.–Japan agreement to jointly produce air-to-air missiles, calling it a threat to regional stability and part of Washington’s broader effort to militarize Japan. The move, announced during U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s Tokyo visit, involves the AIM-120 system and may expand to other missile types. A North Korean defense official said the plan signals a shift in U.S. strategy and warned of rising instability in the Asia-Pacific. Jack Kim, Reuters, April 1

N. Korean tech giant secures critical electronics deal with Chinese firm. North Korea’s Mangyongdae Trading Company signed a deal with a Chinese electronics firm to acquire semiconductors, lithium-ion batteries, and display panels in exchange for rare earths. The agreement, made in Sinuiju on March 10, includes joint development of a mine in Chongju and plans to upgrade transport and trial a digitally encrypted payment system. The partnership is expected to enhance North Korea’s IT production amid shortages. Eun Seol, Daily NK, April 2

Thailand

Protest targets PM residence. A few hundred demonstrators rallied outside Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s official residence on Tuesday, opposing the government's entertainment complex and online gambling bills. Protesters accused the administration of rushing legislation without public input and claimed the proposed laws would erode moral values. Protest leader Pichit Chaimongkol dismissed the government's justification that casino revenues would support the elderly and disabled as political posturing. Bangkok Post, April 2.

Vietnam

Belgian king’s visit to create new momentum for bilateral ties: Party chief. Party General Secretary To Lam welcomed King Philippe’s five-day visit to Vietnam, calling it a milestone for deepening political trust and expanding cooperation. The leaders agreed to enhance trade, education, innovation, and green energy ties. King Philippe emphasized Vietnam’s industrial progress and proposed greater collaboration in climate response, defense, and health. Vietnam News, April 1

Vietnam to invite China, Laos, Cambodia to send military personnel to parade. Vietnam’s defense ministry will invite China, Laos, and Cambodia to send military personnel to a parade marking the 50th anniversary of national reunification on April 30. Deputy Minister Hoang Xuan Chien emphasized the event’s importance and Vietnam’s appreciation for the countries’ past support. The parade will feature aerial and ground demonstrations, highlighting growing regional defense ties. VnExpress, April 1

Myanmar

Junta rejects quake ceasefire, death toll hits 2,719. Myanmar’s ruling junta has rejected ceasefire proposals from ethnic armed groups aimed at enabling earthquake relief, as the death toll rose to 2,719 with over 4,000 injured and 400 missing. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing accused these groups of regrouping under cover of the pause. Despite global focus on the disaster, the military continued air and drone strikes across several regions. Access to medical care remains limited amid a crackdown on public health workers. Myanmar Now, April 2

Laos

Laos, Vietnam prepare for state visit of Vietnamese president. Vietnamese Deputy Foreign Minister Nguyen Manh Cuong led a delegation to Laos to finalize plans for President Luong Cuong’s state visit on April 8–9. Vice President Bounthong Chitmany welcomed the delegation, praising bilateral coordination and ties. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to deepening cooperation and highlighted recent high-level exchanges as evidence of strong Laos–Vietnam relations. Vientiane Times, April 2

Philippines

House prosecution team in Duterte impeachment trial 80% ready. The House impeachment team is 80% prepared for Vice President Sara Duterte’s trial, according to Rep. Lorenz Defensor, citing mock proceedings and evidence preparation. The trial awaits Senate action after the articles were transmitted in February. Lead prosecutor Marcelino Libanan has filed a motion for Duterte to respond, citing Senate activity during recess. The team balances trial work with local election campaigns. Gabriel Pabico Lalu, Philippine Daily Inquirer, April 2

Marcos trust, approval ratings nosedive in new survey, Sara is up. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. experienced a steep drop in public approval and trust, with ratings falling to 19% and 14%, respectively, according to a PUBLiCUS Asia survey. Disapproval of his performance rose to 57%, while distrust reached 63%. In contrast, Vice President Sara Duterte saw improvements, with her approval increasing to 42% and trust to 39%. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, April 2

Singapore

SAF chief of staff Goh Pei Ming steps down ahead of GE2025. Brigadier-General Goh Pei Ming resigned from the Singapore Armed Forces on March 31, fueling speculation he will run in the upcoming general election. Goh previously held senior roles including SAF inspector-general and chaired the 2022 National Day Parade. He joins a wave of public officials exiting ahead of the polls. His next move has not been officially announced. Anjali Raguraman, The Straits Times, April 1

Taiwan

China drills around Taiwan continue with code name Strait Thunder. China’s military continued its exercises around Taiwan for a second day, now under the code name “Strait Thunder-2025A,” focusing on blockade tactics and precision strikes. The drills come amid rising tension with Taipei and followed the U.S. defense chief’s critical Asia tour. Taiwan reported over 10 Chinese warships in its response zone and accused China’s coast guard of harassment. Joe Cash, Yimou Lee and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, April 1

Beijing moves drills closer to Taiwan, with Shandong carrier in ‘response zone’. China launched joint military and coast guard exercises around Taiwan on Tuesday, deploying the Shandong aircraft carrier and multiple armed forces to conduct simulated strikes and blockades. The drills, focused on testing combat readiness and control of key maritime and aerial routes, were described by the PLA as a warning against Taiwanese separatism. Experts say the maneuvers aim to restrict Taiwan’s defensive options in the event of conflict. Sylvie Zhuang and Amber Wang, South China Morning Post, April 1

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan to curb SIM card issuance amid rising digital fraud. Kazakhstan plans to cap SIM card ownership to five or ten per person and introduce video and biometric registration to fight telecom scams. The proposed legislation targets SIM misuse, including SIM boxes masking international calls. Authorities also aim to reclaim numbering control and issue new numbers via the eGov portal. Universal SIM cards and tighter oversight for legal entities are also under review. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, April 1

Kazakhstan launches direct flights between Almaty and Guangzhou. Air Astana has begun direct service between Almaty and Guangzhou, with flights operating three times weekly. To promote the route, Kazakh Tourism and Air Astana organized a tour for Chinese tour operators and media, featuring top destinations like Charyn Canyon and Kolsai Lakes. Chinese arrivals to Kazakhstan rose 78% in 2024. This year marks the Year of China Tourism in Kazakhstan. The Astana Times, April 2

Uzbekistan

Fresh abuse allegations aired by jailed Karakalpak activist. Dauletmurat Tazhimuratov, serving a 16-year sentence in Uzbekistan for leading 2022 Karakalpakstan protests, has again alleged mistreatment in prison. According to Human Rights Watch, guards encouraged inmate assaults, seized food during Ramadan, and blocked family contact. Attempts to file complaints were reportedly suppressed. Tazhimuratov, a lawyer, maintains the charges were politically motivated. Eurasianet, April 1

Kyrgyzstan

Poverty rate at risk of rising in Kyrgyzstan despite economic growth – UN agency. The World Food Programme warned that Kyrgyzstan’s poverty rate may worsen despite 9% GDP growth in 2024. About 30% live in poverty and another 10% risk falling below the line. Rising food prices, reliance on imports, climate shocks, and reduced remittances due to Russian migration policies are key threats. Eurasianet, April 1

Kyrgyz leader proposes the introduction of a unified visa. At a summit in Khujand on March 31, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov proposed a unified visa for Central Asia to allow seamless tourist travel across Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The idea mirrors the Schengen model. The presidents also discussed trade, infrastructure, and cultural ties, signing a treaty marking their shared border junction and adopting a declaration on regional friendship. Asia-Plus, April 1

Northeast Asia

Beyond Overcapacity: Chinese-Style Modernization and the Clash of Economic Models. China’s industrial overcapacity is not merely a cyclical or sectoral issue but reflects deeper systemic features of its state-led economic model. China’s push for “Chinese-style modernization” emphasizes technological self-reliance, industrial upgrading, and global market dominance through state subsidies and non-market mechanisms. This model enables rapid scaling in strategic sectors like electric vehicles, solar energy, and semiconductors, but also fuels global trade tensions, especially with the United States and the European Union. Overproduction driven by local government incentives and weak demand at home leads to surplus goods flooding foreign markets, challenging competitors, and distorting global supply chains. Beijing frames this approach as a legitimate path to modernization, but it increasingly clashes with liberal market economies’ expectations of fair competition. The divergence demonstrates a broader ideological and economic contest, as China seeks to redefine development norms while others push back with trade defense tools and industrial policy recalibrations. Addressing overcapacity thus requires more than technical adjustments — it necessitates a fundamental reassessment of economic governance and cross-border cooperation. MERICS, April 2

A grand bargain between Trump and Xi? Donald Trump’s recent overtures to China reflect a Jacksonian worldview that prioritizes American economic interests over moral or ideological considerations. Focusing on protectionism and domestic revival, Trump views international issues like the war in Ukraine as costly distractions unless they pose a direct threat to U.S. national security. His outreach to Xi Jinping is shaped more by transactional pragmatism than strategic rivalry, viewing China as a partner for economic management rather than an existential threat. This unsettles Indo-Pacific allies like India, Japan, and Australia, who fear a G2-style power arrangement may erode regional stability and dilute America's strategic commitments. Beijing, meanwhile, sees potential cooperation with Trump as a means to focus on domestic challenges without abandoning its long-term ambition to dominate Asia. Despite any temporary thaw, China’s deeper goal remains to displace U.S. influence in the region. Regional players are wary that any rapprochement between Washington and Beijing—whether confrontational or cooperative—may ultimately sideline their interests. Ved Shinde, Lowy Institute, March 28

Why Donald Trump should meet Kim Jong-un again – in Mongolia. With North Korea’s nuclear capabilities expanding and direct U.S.–Pyongyang dialogue stalled since 2019, a renewed Trump-Kim summit is increasingly likely. Mongolia presents a compelling venue for such a meeting due to its accessibility, symbolic neutrality, and balanced diplomatic ties. Unlike previous hosts, Mongolia enables Kim Jong-un to arrive by train, preserving an image of independence from China, while offering a respectful yet neutral setting that aligns with North Korea’s emphasis on sovereignty. As a democracy with constructive relationships with both Washington and Pyongyang, Mongolia can facilitate substantive engagement without geopolitical entanglements. The Biden administration’s “strategic patience” has allowed North Korea to advance its arsenal, while Trump’s unconventional diplomacy—despite limited outcomes—opened critical communication channels. A summit in Mongolia would allow for a diplomatic reset with more realistic goals, such as containment and arms control rather than full denuclearization. For South Korea, such dialogue offers reassurance amid growing doubts over U.S. defense commitments. By selecting Mongolia, the summit could transcend past theatrics, offering a modest but meaningful forum to reframe negotiations and reestablish stability in Northeast Asia. Tuvshinzaya Gantulga, Lowy Institute, March 29

Will Lee Jae-myung Rise From South Korea’s Political Chaos? With South Korea’s April 2025 legislative elections approaching, Lee Jae-myung has emerged as a central figure in a deeply polarized political landscape. Despite surviving a near-fatal stabbing in January and ongoing corruption investigations, Lee remains the leader of the Democratic Party and a formidable opponent to President Yoon Suk-yeol’s ruling People Power Party. Public dissatisfaction with Yoon’s administration, particularly over economic management and governance issues, has revived Lee’s popularity. His recent return to the campaign trail has energized his party’s base, though skepticism persists among moderates and independents. The legislative elections are seen as a critical test of Yoon’s mandate and a potential turning point for Lee’s political future. A Democratic Party victory could change the balance of power in the National Assembly and set the stage for Lee’s potential presidential bid in 2027. However, ongoing legal troubles and internal party divisions continue to cloud his prospects. South Korea’s political uncertainty reflects broader concerns about democratic backsliding, accountability, and economic inequality, with both major parties under scrutiny as the country heads toward a pivotal vote. Steven Denney, The Diplomat, March 31

Urbanisation and the Effectiveness of China’s Two-Child Policies. China’s shift from a one-child to a two-child policy has had limited demographic impact, particularly in urban areas where birth rates remain low despite relaxed restrictions. Urbanization has reshaped fertility preferences, with economic pressures, housing costs, and work-life imbalance discouraging larger families. Even after the policy was extended to allow three children, uptake has been minimal. Surveys reveal that urban couples often view having more than one child as financially burdensome and socially impractical, prioritizing quality of life and career development. The government’s attempts to incentivize births through subsidies, extended maternity leave, and housing support have yielded marginal results. Moreover, disparities in local implementation and persistent gender inequality in caregiving responsibilities further undermine policy effectiveness. Rural regions have shown slightly higher fertility responses, but nationwide trends still point to a declining population trajectory. The findings show that fertility decisions are increasingly shaped by socioeconomic conditions rather than state policy, signaling the need for broader structural reforms if China hopes to address its demographic challenges. Jane Du, SOAS China Institute, April 1

War Games. China’s People’s Liberation Army released a propaganda video titled “Vanquishing Evil,” portraying military exercises around Taiwan as a mythic, video game–style showdown. Drawing heavily from the Chinese literary classic Journey to the West and the aesthetics of the video game Black Myth Wukong, the video framed the drills as a righteous battle, fusing folklore with martial spectacle. Promoted widely across state media, the production glamorized potential conflict, reducing an invasion to a gamified fantasy. In Taiwan, the reaction was starkly serious. President William Lai’s administration denounced the PLA’s actions, affirming its commitment to defending Taiwan’s democratic system and sovereignty. The provocative video coincided with heightened rhetorical and security tensions, including increased espionage cases and President Lai labeling Beijing a “hostile foreign force.” China’s state media vilified Lai, amplifying narratives that cast him as a threat to Taiwan’s future. The PLA’s theatrical posturing—while meant to inspire domestic pride—has stoked real fears of escalation in Taiwan, where each symbolic “demon-slaying” maneuver represents tangible threats such as electronic warfare, missile strikes, and encirclement tactics. David Bandurski, China Media Project, April 1

Southeast Asia

As Western aid dries up, Southeast Asia faces the fallout. Major aid cuts by the United States, United Kingdom, and several European nations in early 2025 have triggered significant disruptions across Southeast Asia. The U.S. froze 90 days of foreign assistance, canceling 83% of USAID programs, while the UK slashed its aid budget by 40% . Myanmar and Cambodia are hardest hit due to their economic reliance on such assistance, with halted healthcare services, de-mining operations, and human rights initiatives. Vietnam voiced strong concern over the impacts on war remediation efforts, while other governments issued more muted responses, possibly reflecting strategic caution or prior expectations under Trump’s renewed presidency. NGOs have been more vocal, citing closures of critical services for vulnerable communities. The aid withdrawal has also strengthened narratives of Western disengagement, potentially benefiting China and Russia. However, the situation presents an opportunity for countries like Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Australia to fill the vacuum, especially in supporting democratic and civil society initiatives that authoritarian donors are unlikely to fund. Australia’s decision to maintain its aid signals an awareness of the broader geopolitical stakes. Melissa Conley Tyler and Viet Dung Trinh, East Asia Forum, April 1

Compounding Devastation: The Myanmar Earthquake A 6.9-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar on March 30, 2025, compounding the country’s ongoing humanitarian crisis. The epicenter was located in eastern Shan State, near areas already affected by conflict and displacement. The disaster caused widespread damage to infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, and transportation networks, while exacerbating the challenges faced by over two million internally displaced persons. Relief efforts are severely hindered by Myanmar’s political instability and military restrictions on humanitarian access. The military junta’s control over affected regions has limited the ability of aid organizations to deliver emergency assistance. Communication blackouts and a lack of transparent reporting further obstruct relief operations and damage assessments. With monsoon season approaching, the risk of disease outbreaks and deteriorating living conditions is rising rapidly. The international response has been slow and complicated by geopolitical divisions, with calls growing for more coordinated engagement through ASEAN and UN mechanisms. Erin L. Murphy, CSIS, March 30

Inside Cambodia’s Political Doomsday Sect. Cambodia’s ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) has increasingly embraced political messaging that resembles doomsday cult rhetoric, portraying any opposition as a threat to national survival. Prime Minister Hun Manet and party elites frame their continued rule as essential to preventing societal collapse, invoking past traumas such as the Khmer Rouge era to justify authoritarian governance. Dissent is equated with chaos, and the CPP has used this narrative to suppress opposition, including the forced dissolution of the Candlelight Party and ongoing crackdowns on activists and media. The rhetoric serves to delegitimize alternative political visions and reinforce the image of the CPP as the sole guardian of national stability. This political strategy has intensified since Hun Manet succeeded his father, Hun Sen, perpetuating a dynastic transition under the guise of crisis management. While public apathy and fear limit overt resistance, the use of existential threat narratives reflects deeper insecurities within the regime and a desire to consolidate power amid economic challenges and shifting international alliances. Daniel Zak and Vutha Srey, The Diplomat, April 1

How the ‘Deal to Sell Out the Country’ Paved the Way for Thaksin’s Return as Thailand’s Biggest Red Herring. The controversial narrative of a “deal to sell out the country,” aimed at discrediting former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has resurfaced as a powerful political tool in Thailand, serving more as a distraction than a revelation. Since Thaksin’s return from self-exile in 2023 and subsequent royal pardon, critics have accused him of negotiating leniency in exchange for political concessions, particularly through the Pheu Thai Party’s alliance with military-backed factions. Despite its emotional pull, the allegation lacks legal substantiation and has been weaponized by conservative elites and reformist detractors alike to delegitimize the current government and Pheu Thai. The narrative draws on deep-rooted distrust of Thaksin and evokes nationalist anxieties, but ultimately diverts attention from substantive issues such as constitutional reform and democratic accountability. Rather than focusing on governance challenges, the “deal” controversy has polarized public discourse, sidelining debate on Thailand’s structural political dilemmas. In doing so, it reinforces entrenched power dynamics while obscuring pathways for meaningful reform. Napon Jatusripitak, Fulcrum, April 1

Batam Struggles to Up the Ante as Johor–Singapore Special Economic Zone Rises. As the Johor–Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) gains momentum, Indonesia’s Batam is grappling with renewed pressure to maintain its competitiveness. Once envisioned as a key industrial and logistics hub serving Singapore, Batam now risks being overshadowed by the emerging JS-SEZ, which promises seamless cross-border integration and investor-friendly policies. Despite existing incentives and infrastructure, Batam suffers from bureaucratic inefficiencies, inconsistent regulations, and lingering perceptions of policy unpredictability. Local officials have proposed streamlining investment procedures and improving cooperation with Singapore, but implementation remains sluggish. Investors increasingly view the JS-SEZ as a more reliable alternative, particularly given its stronger institutional backing and clearer bilateral coordination. The rise of the JS-SEZ reflects a change in regional economic gravity, challenging Batam to reassert its relevance or risk marginalization. Without reforms and clearer strategic direction, Batam may struggle to attract the high-quality investment and connectivity needed to compete effectively. Francis E. Hutchinson, Fulcrum, April 2

Oceania

Australia must respond to Chinese warships with clarity and caution. In February 2025, Chinese naval vessels conducted live-fire drills in international waters near Australia, prompting public concern. These operations, part of China’s pre-planned exercises, underscore Beijing’s long-term ambition to become a major maritime power, evident since 2012 and supported by the growing capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army Navy. Although the drills coincided with Australia–China defense talks in Beijing, official communication suggests tensions remain contained. While Australia acknowledged the legality of Chinese actions, Beijing criticized Canberra’s response as unjustified. China views its relationship with Australia as largely economic, with security issues marginal to current bilateral ties. However, Australia’s unease reflects an asymmetry in power and fears of Chinese assertiveness, particularly as Beijing incrementally expands its influence in the South Pacific. As U.S. geopolitical commitment under a renewed Trump presidency becomes uncertain, Canberra must prioritize regional coordination over alarmist rhetoric. Rather than framing China as an imminent threat, Australia should focus on measured responses that strengthen regional partnerships and uphold shared interests. Edward Sing Yue Chan, East Asia Forum, April 2

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