Asia Daily: April 18, 2024
News
South China Sea: Beijing may get ‘up close’ as US-Manila Balikatan drills send ‘deterrent signal’ on contested claims. The US and the Philippines are gearing up for the annual Balikatan military exercises in the South China Sea, signaling a strong message to Beijing amidst maritime disputes. These drills aim to enhance joint readiness and showcase the strategic partnership between the two nations in defending their maritime interests. Involving complex naval and aerial drills, these exercises, are specifically designed to enhance interoperability and demonstrate commitment to regional security amidst escalating tensions. Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, April 18
U.S., Japan, South Korea share concerns over yen, won depreciation. Finance ministers from the U.S, Japan, and South Korea have voiced serious concerns about the recent depreciation of their currencies against the dollar. Meeting on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring gatherings, they discussed economic strategies to promote stability and strengthen supply chains. They also addressed regional security challenges, emphasizing deeper trilateral cooperation beyond North Korean threats. Takuya Karube, Kyodo News, April 18
Beijing denies its South China Sea deal with former Philippine leader Duterte was a ‘secret’. China has dismissed claims that an agreement with former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte concerning the South China Sea was clandestine. The '“gentleman’s agreement” stipulated that Manila would not build up or repair installments at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, aimed to stabilize regional tensions through mutual non-aggression. Beijing urges the current Philippine administration to uphold this agreement to continue promoting peace in the region, which current Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr does not acknowledge. Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, April 18
S. Korean parliamentary chief calls for stronger S. Korea-U.S. efforts to address N.K. threats. South Korea's National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo emphasized the need for enhanced Seoul-Washington deterrence strategies against North Korea's military developments, including ICBMs and nuclear capabilities. Speaking at George Washington University, Kim advocated for continued bilateral collaboration to manage the growing threats, which now extend to the U.S. mainland. He urged North Korea to return to denuclearization talks. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, April 17
A former Maldives president is freed after a high court throws out his 11-year sentence. The Maldives High Court has overturned former President Abdulla Yameen's 11-year sentence for money laundering and bribery, ordering a retrial. This decision, announced just days before the parliamentary elections, could influence the political landscape, potentially benefiting President Mohamed Muizzu's party. Yameen, who had been under house arrest since last October, awaits a new trial date following the ruling on the fairness of his previous trial. AP News, April 18
Cabinet reshuffle looms in. Thailand is poised for a significant cabinet reshuffle next week, primarily affecting the ruling Pheu Thai Party. The reshuffle, still under negotiation, includes critical changes like the Finance Ministry potentially going to Pheu Thai to push its digital wallet initiative. This adjustment is part of a broader strategy as Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin reshapes his government to better align with current political goals. Chairith Yonpiam and Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, April 18
Belarusian deputy FM visits N. Korea: KCNA. Belarusian Deputy Foreign Minister Evgeny Shestakov has visited Pyongyang to potentially enhance trilateral ties with North Korea and Russia, amidst their increased cooperation. This visit, reported by North Korea's state media, aligns with Belarus's support for Russia in its conflict with Ukraine and suggests deeper strategic discussions possibly involving military and technological collaboration among the three nations. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, April 17
Survey: Support for Duterte in senatorial race dips. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's popularity in the senatorial race has decreased, positioning him second in the latest Publicus Asia survey. Conducted with 1,500 respondents from March 14-18, this poll reflects a significant shift in voter sentiment as the 2025 elections approach. Duterte's dip in support totalled about 10%. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, April 18
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan sign allied relations treaty. Presidents of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Emomali Rahmon and Shavkat Mirziyoyev, respectively, have signed a Treaty on Allied Relations, elevating their nations' partnership to a strategic level. This agreement, signed in Dushanbe, underscores a mutual commitment to deepening ties in various sectors, enhancing peace, and regional stability. The treaty also supports expanded trade with aims to reach a $2 billion turnover, alongside new joint ventures in key industries. The Times of Central Asia, April 18
Move Forward Party gets 15 more days to submit defense. The Constitutional Court of Thailand has granted the Move Forward Party (MFP) an additional 15 days to prepare its defense in the ongoing party dissolution case. This extension comes after the Election Commission recommended dissolving the party, which is accused of actions against the democratic system under the monarchy. The decision allows the MFP until May 3 to file necessary documents, reflecting the legal complexities involved. Bangkok Post, April 17
Cooperation with Việt Nam among EU’s priorities in Indo-Pacific: official. The European Union is emphasizing its strategic partnership with Vietnam, focusing on trade, investment, and environmental cooperation as core components of its Indo-Pacific strategy. This commitment is highlighted by an upcoming visit from a delegation of the EU Council’s Asia-Oceania Working Party to Vietnam. These discussions aim to fortify bilateral relations and address shared global challenges, marking a significant step in the EU's engagement with Asia. Vietnam News, April 18
CSTO satisfied with Kyrgyz-Tajik border demarcation negotiations. The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has expressed satisfaction with ongoing border demarcation talks between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. According to CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov, the political will of both nations has enabled not only the start but also the successful progression of these negotiations. The effort aims to resolve longstanding disputes over a border spanning approximately 975 kilometers, 800 kilometers of which are now agreed upon. The Times of Central Asia, April 18
Long Form
The Consequences of China’s Voracious Appetite for Illicit South African Abalone. China's high demand for abalone, a seafood with cultural importance in Asia, has led to rampant poaching along the South African coast, deeply affecting local communities where many depend on poaching for survival. The illicit trade not only threatens the marine ecosystem but also the economic stability of the disadvantaged coastal communities reliant on the sea for their livelihood. The smuggling of poached abalone into Asia illustrates a broader issue of global wildlife trafficking, where the demand from wealthier nations imposes ecological and social costs on poorer regions. Nicholas Muller, The Diplomat, April 17
The Dire State of Women’s Rights in North Korea. Despite North Korea's public commitment to gender equality, the reality for women in the country is harsh, characterized by discrimination and severely limited opportunities. Officially, the regime celebrates women, using slogans like "Women Are Flowers" and claiming the nation is a "paradise" for women, as shown during International Women's Day events. However, the disparity between this propagandized image and the actual conditions is stark. Women face significant societal and economic challenges, with little genuine support from the government. The portrayal of Kim Jong Un in state media as a nurturing figure starkly contrasts with the everyday struggles and inequities faced by North Korean women. Sang Yong Lee, The Diplomat, April 18
Beyond Tariffs: Overcapacity Ignites Fresh Tensions in China-US Trade Relations. Overcapacity, especially in sectors like electric vehicles (EVs), has emerged as a new focal point in the economic tensions between the United States and China. This issue, where production capacity significantly surpasses demand, leads to an oversupply that drives down global prices. In the U.S., there is a growing perception that China’s massive production capabilities are a strategic maneuver to disrupt global market balances. This overproduction not only affects pricing globally but also threatens the sustainability of industries by forcing prices downwards, complicating trade relations further between the two largest world economies. Lizzi C. Lee, The Diplomat, April 17
Why Xi and Biden chose the same day to send a message on Taiwan. The simultaneous political engagements by Xi Jinping and Joe Biden on April 10 underscored a calculated messaging effort regarding Taiwan. This date marks the anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act, a pivotal U.S. legislation ensuring support for Taiwan's self-defense, which has historical significance given its enactment soon after establishing diplomatic relations with Beijing. Xi met with former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou, subtly affirming cross-strait ties, while Biden hosted significant trilateral talks involving Japan and the Philippines, addressing regional stability and responding to rising tensions in areas like the South China Sea. These parallel actions reflect both leaders' strategic use of diplomatic anniversaries to reinforce their respective stances on Taiwan amidst evolving geopolitical tensions. Katsuji Nakazawa, Nikkei Asia, April 18
Emerging U.S.-Japan-Philippine alliance is making waves in Asia. The recent White House summit featuring leaders from the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines has highlighted a burgeoning informal alliance that is poised to significantly influence Asia's security landscape. This alliance, demonstrated by the trilateral meeting, presents a change in regional dynamics, focusing on mutual security concerns, particularly in the South China Sea. The collaboration aims to strengthen ties and enhance cooperation in response to regional challenges, reshaping security frameworks and potentially stabilizing the geopolitical environment in the Indo-Pacific. Richard Heydarian, Nikkei Asia, April 18
Chinese workers need more skills for the country's economic pivot. As China shifts its economic focus from heavy industry to more technology and service-oriented sectors, the need for a skilled workforce has become increasingly evident. This transition exposes the gap in current worker skills, particularly in newer, high-demand areas essential for maintaining competitiveness on a global scale. Educational institutions are recognized as playing a crucial role in preparing the workforce for this pivot. Addressing these educational needs is vital for China to meet the challenges of its economic transformation and to ensure sustainable growth in the coming decades. Wei Li, Nikkei Asia, April 18
Revitalising US relations with Southeast Asia through public diplomacy. The Biden administration is reinvigorating its public diplomacy efforts in Southeast Asia, as geopolitical tensions with China intensify. Southeast Asia's strategic and economic significance, coupled with its proximity to major global players, makes it indispensable for U.S. interests, particularly in security and trade. Despite challenges, such as President Biden's notable absence at the 43rd ASEAN Annual Summit, the U.S. continues to affirm its commitment through various military and educational initiatives. However, maintaining a strong and positive public image in the region is crucial for sustaining influence, especially in the face of competitive pressures from China. This effort requires a more visible and proactive diplomatic presence to foster long-term trust and cooperation. Luke C. Hahn, East Asia Forum, April 18
Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Singapore’s Foreign Workforce. The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Singapore is significantly altering the economic landscape, particularly affecting the foreign workforce. As AI increases manufacturing output and optimizes operations, it simultaneously poses risks of job displacement for low-wage migrant workers. These workers, crucial to sectors like construction and domestic services, face vulnerabilities as AI shifts job demands towards more digitally skilled positions. Despite efforts like the SkillsFuture Initiative to upskill residents, migrant workers remain largely excluded from these benefits, exacerbating socioeconomic divides. The implementation of AI could deepen inequalities and necessitate strategic policy adjustments to ensure an inclusive transition for all workers in Singapore. Tappy Lung, Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 17