Asia Daily: April 18, 2025
China
China’s response will continue ‘to the end,’ FM says after White House claims China faces up to 245% tariffs. China’s Foreign Ministry rejected the White House’s claim that Chinese goods face tariffs up to 245%, calling it a baseless “numbers game” with no practical economic meaning. The ministry accused the U.S. of using tariffs as tools of coercion and warned that continued infringement on China’s interests would be met with unrelenting countermeasures. Beijing reiterated it does not seek a trade war but will not back down from one. Global Times, April 17
Rattled by visa risks, Chinese students rethink U.S. study plans. Rising visa revocations and deportation fears under U.S. President Donald Trump have led many Chinese students and families to reconsider studying in the United States. Immigration raids and administrative actions have disrupted plans, prompting a shift toward education in the UK and other countries. Chinese authorities issued travel warnings, and legal challenges are mounting in U.S. courts. Enrollment from China is declining, with Indian students now outnumbering their Chinese peers. Phoebe Zhang, South China Morning Post, April 17
Trump says U.S. and China are in trade talks and is confident a deal will be reached soon. U.S. President Donald Trump said trade negotiations with China are ongoing and expressed confidence that an agreement would be reached within weeks, though he did not confirm direct contact with President Xi Jinping. Shortly after his comments, the USTR announced phased port fees and LNG cargo restrictions on Chinese vessels. A Chinese diplomat reaffirmed Beijing’s willingness to talk but warned it would not compromise its interests. Mark Magnier and Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, April 18
Japan
Ishiba plans next step after frank and constructive talks with Trump. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba described recent tariff discussions between Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa and U.S. President Donald Trump as “frank and constructive,” signaling plans for a future visit to Washington. Trump emphasized prioritizing talks with Japan and raised concerns over the bilateral security treaty. Akazawa urged a review of 10% tariffs on key goods, with both sides agreeing to pursue a deal within the 90-day pause. The Asahi Shimbun, April 17
Japan Finance Minister Kato deeply concerned over Trump tariff impact. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato voiced Japan’s strongest warning yet about U.S. tariffs, citing risks to both national and global economic stability. He flagged market volatility and inflationary pressure from President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs, while pledging close coordination with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Kato emphasized stable currency movements and dismissed accusations of yen manipulation. The Asahi Shimbun, April 18
LDP has most support ahead of Upper House election, poll shows. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party leads voter support ahead of Japan’s upcoming House of Councilors election, with 20.6% backing in the proportional representation bloc, according to a Jiji Press poll. The Democratic Party for the People ranks second at 10.6%, followed by the Constitutional Democratic Party at 7.8%. Among voters under 30, the DPP leads with 21.5% support. The Japan Times, April 17
South Korea
Ex-DP leader Lee keeps strong lead in presidential election poll. Former Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung leads the June 3 presidential race with 38% support, the highest for any candidate this year in Gallup Korea’s polling. Former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, ex-Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo, and acting President Han Duck-soo follow at 7% each, with Han yet to announce his candidacy. The Democratic Party holds a 42% backing overall, ahead of the People Power Party’s 34%. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, April 18
PPP presidential aspirant urges ex-President Yoon to leave party. People Power Party presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo has urged former President Yoon Suk Yeol to voluntarily leave the party, arguing his presence hinders efforts to rebuild public trust following his impeachment. Ahn said the PPP must end its perceived loyalty to Yoon and become a “forward-looking party” if it hopes to win the June 3 election. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, April 18
Korea braces for defense cost-sharing pressure following U.S.-Japan talks. South Korea is preparing for potential U.S. demands to bundle defense cost-sharing with trade negotiations, following President Trump’s push for a similar “one-stop shopping” deal with Japan. As Seoul enters tariff talks next week, officials are cautious, with Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok confirming that defense costs are not yet on the agenda. Korea currently faces a 25% reciprocal tariff, adding urgency to the talks. Bahk Eun-ji, The Korea Times, April 17
North Korea
38 N. Korean defectors enter S. Korea in Q1: unification ministry. Thirty-eight North Korean defectors resettled in South Korea in the first quarter of 2025, down slightly from 43 during the same period last year, according to the unification ministry. Of the new arrivals, only one was male, and more than half were in their 20s or 30s, continuing a youth-driven trend. Most defectors initially escape to a third country and remain there for extended periods before reaching the South, due to strict border controls. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, April 17
Economic shift: N. Korean regime allows top firms to conduct independent foreign trade. North Korea has authorized major trading firms and first-class enterprises under ministries and central agencies to pursue independent foreign trade with minimal state interference. A new directive from the Ministry of External Economic Affairs allows these entities to earn foreign currency, form joint ventures, and dispatch larger negotiation teams abroad, including to “friendly nations.” While lower-level companies remain restricted, indirect partnerships may emerge. Jeong Seo-yeong, Daily NK, April 18
Vietnam
Vietnam wishes to deepen friendship, multifaceted cooperation with Kenya. President Luong Cuong reaffirmed Vietnam’s desire to strengthen ties with Kenya during a meeting with Defence Secretary Soipan Tuya, who was in Hanoi for the P4G Summit. Cuong proposed cooperation in trade, investment, agriculture, tourism, and defense, including peacekeeping and logistics. Tuya delivered a letter from President Ruto praising Vietnam’s development model and called for expanded collaboration in healthcare, food security, and housing. Vietnam News, April 17
Ethiopian PM wraps up official visit to Vietnam. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali concluded his official visit to Vietnam, during which he attended the P4G Summit and met with top leaders including General Secretary To Lam and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. The visit marked the first by a senior Ethiopian leader since bilateral ties were established and comes ahead of the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations. Discussions focused on sustainable development, multilateral cooperation, and sharing Vietnam’s development experience. Vietnam News, April 17
Deputy PM, FM receives Colombian vice minister of foreign affairs. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son met Colombian Vice Minister Mauricio Jaramillo Jassir on the sidelines of the P4G Summit in Hanoi to advance bilateral cooperation. Both sides committed to deeper ties through political consultations, economic commissions, and multilateral engagement. They also agreed to expand cooperation in energy transition, AI, digital transformation, and climate resilience. Vietnam News, April 17
Myanmar
Myanmar frees nearly 4,900 prisoners including some political detainees. Myanmar’s military government pardoned 4,893 prisoners during the Thingyan new year holiday, including at least 22 political detainees, according to state media and independent monitors. Among those released were journalist Hanthar Nyein and film director Steel. Thirteen foreigners were also freed and will be deported. Rights groups noted that mass amnesties are common during holidays, but thousands remain jailed, including Aung San Suu Kyi. Associated Press, April 17
23 civilians killed in Myanmar junta airstrikes over Thingyan. Myanmar’s military launched at least 26 airstrikes across seven regions during the Thingyan New Year festival from April 13–16, killing 23 civilians and injuring around 50. Targets included monasteries in Karen, Chin, Rakhine, Magwe, Sagaing, Bago, and Mandalay, even in areas without active fighting. Among the dead were children, monks, and a pregnant woman. Despite a declared ceasefire following the March 28 earthquake, the junta continued shelling and air raids across much of the country. The Irrawaddy, April 17
Laos
PM reiterates Laos' green growth commitment at P4G Summit. Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone reaffirmed Laos' commitment to green growth at the 4th P4G Summit in Hanoi, emphasizing its role in socio-economic development and achieving the sustainable development goals. He called for greater international cooperation and support, particularly in technology and innovation transfers. While Laos is not a P4G member, the Prime Minister pledged continued engagement with partners to address climate change and drive inclusive growth. Vientiane Times, April 18
Cambodia
Resist protectionism, China’s Xi tells Cambodia as Phnom Penh seeks loans. Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Cambodia to reject protectionism and hegemonism as he concluded his Southeast Asia tour with a visit to Phnom Penh. Xi praised past infrastructure cooperation but made no new financial commitments. Cambodia, seeking support for the $1.7 billion Funan Techo Canal, signed 37 documents with China, though details remain unclear. Xi’s remarks come as both countries face high U.S. tariffs, and Phnom Penh continues to rely heavily on Chinese investment. Francesco Guarascio, Reuters, April 17
Cambodia, China reaffirm building shared future in the new era. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership during Xi’s official visit to Phnom Penh. The leaders committed to expanded cooperation across politics, defense, trade, tourism, agriculture, infrastructure, and cultural exchange. Xi promised increased Chinese investment, support for mine clearance, and 1,000 government scholarships for Cambodian students over three years. Nop Sreymao, Khmer Times, April 18
Indonesia
Indonesia, U.S. target completion of tariff talks within 60 days. Indonesia and the United States have agreed to finalize negotiations on the 32% U.S. tariff on Indonesian imports within 60 days, according to Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto. Talks in Washington have covered trade, investment, critical minerals, and supply chain resilience. President Prabowo dispatched a high-level delegation to reach a compromise. ANTARA News, April 18
Indonesia, U.S. discuss Gaza evacuation plan. Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington to discuss a proposed plan to temporarily evacuate up to 1,000 wounded or orphaned Gazans to Indonesia for medical care, with the aim of returning them later. The talks were held alongside bilateral trade negotiations. The plan sparked criticism from major Indonesian Muslim organizations over fears of depopulating Gaza. Indonesia clarified it would consult regional partners before proceeding. Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta Globe, April 17
Prabowo vows judicial reform after judges arrested for bribery. President Prabowo Subianto has pledged to overhaul Indonesia’s judicial system following the arrest of South Jakarta District Court Chief Judge Muhammad Arif Nuryanta for his role in a multimillion-rupiah bribery case tied to a crude palm oil export scandal. Prabowo aims to eliminate systemic corruption by strengthening legal ethics and introducing random case assignment via an electronic “robotic selection” system. Yustinus Paat, Jakarta Globe, April 17
Malaysia
Malaysia PM to hold talks with Myanmar opposition after meeting junta chief. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will meet with Myanmar’s National Unity Government on April 19, one day after holding talks with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in Bangkok focused on post-earthquake humanitarian needs. While ASEAN has sidelined the junta for failing to implement its peace plan, Anwar urged inclusive engagement to promote stability. Panu Wongcha-um and Panarat Thepgumpanat, Devjyot Ghoshal, Reuters, April 17
Singapore
Ng Eng Hen, Singapore’s longest-serving defence minister, will not contest GE2025. Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen announced he will retire from politics and not contest the upcoming general election after 24 years in office. A key figure in modernizing Singapore’s Armed Forces, Ng introduced the SAF 2030 and 2040 blueprints, oversaw the establishment of the Digital and Intelligence Service, and expanded bilateral military ties. He emphasized the importance of leadership renewal and expressed confidence in the ruling party’s future team. Hariz Baharudin, The Straits Times, April 18
Bangladesh
Bangladesh and Pakistan resume talks after 15 years, seek to mend strained ties. Bangladesh and Pakistan have resumed diplomatic talks in Dhaka for the first time since 2010, as interim Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus pursues closer ties with Islamabad. The dialogue follows strained relations under former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, now in exile in India. Bangladesh raised demands for a $4.52 billion compensation and a formal apology over the 1971 war. Julhas Alam, Associated Press, April 17
Kazakhstan
Tokayev briefed on preparations for 34th session of Kazakhstan’s Assembly of People. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev reviewed plans for the upcoming 34th session of Kazakhstan’s Assembly of People and emphasized the country’s role in international peacekeeping. He highlighted Kazakhstan’s first independent deployment to the Golan Heights, where its contingent completed 557 missions, including ceasefire monitoring and ordnance clearance. Adlet Seilkhanov, Kazinform, April 17
Uzbekistan
Samarkand to host Central Asia–Gulf Summit on May 5. Uzbekistan’s Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov announced that Samarkand will host the Central Asia–Gulf Cooperation Council Summit on May 5, following the third meeting of foreign ministers under the “Central Asia–GCC” strategic dialogue. The summit is set to strengthen regional ties, building on the inaugural event held in Jeddah in July 2023. The GCC comprises Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar. Kun Uz, April 17
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan discuss strengthening of inter-parliamentary cooperation. During a working visit to Saint Petersburg, Uzbek Senate Chairperson Tanzila Narbaeva met with Rustam Emomali, Chairman of the Tajik parliament, to advance inter-parliamentary dialogue. Narbaeva congratulated Emomali on his election and underscored the importance of legislative-level cooperation, grounded in trust and presidential-level agreements. Uzbekistan Daily, April 17
Tajikistan
Iran calls for bolstering defense and military cooperation with Tajikistan. Iranian military chief Major-General Mohammad Bagheri met Tajikistan’s Defense Minister Lieutenant-General Emomali Sobirzoda in Tehran and expressed readiness to expand bilateral defense and military cooperation. Bagheri highlighted the existing strong ties and emphasized shared cultural, religious, and political values as a foundation for deeper engagement. Sobirzoda praised Iran’s defense capabilities and described its military industry as among the most advanced in the region. Asia-Plus, April 17
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan presents its candidacy for UN Security Council to Latin America. Kyrgyz officials met with Latin American and Caribbean diplomats in Beijing to promote Kyrgyzstan’s bid for non-permanent membership on the UN Security Council for 2027–2028. Special Envoy Nuran Niyazaliev outlined Kyrgyzstan’s priorities, including global peace, preventive diplomacy, and support for developing, mountainous, and small island states. The delegation also emphasized deepening ties with Latin America and cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Baktygul Osmonalieva, 24KG, April 17
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan discuss opening of flights from Dushanbe to Issyk-Kul. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are considering launching direct flights from Dushanbe and Khujand to Issyk-Kul, following talks between aviation officials Daniyar Bostonov and Nazarzod Khabibullo Temur in Dushanbe. The meeting also covered increasing flight frequency on existing Dushanbe-Bishkek and Khujand-Bishkek routes, and strengthening cooperation in flight safety and aviation security. Baktygul Osmonalieva, 24KG, April 17
Northeast Asia
When Trump and Xi seek a war-ending trade deal. Prospects for a renewed U.S.-China trade agreement are rising as Xi Jinping signals openness to talks, contingent on Washington softening its tone, clarifying objectives, and designating a lead negotiator. China’s leverage has grown, buoyed by better-than-expected 5.4% GDP growth and retaliatory tariffs of up to 125% on U.S. goods. Trump’s volatile tariff policy, now reaching 145%, has triggered stock market turmoil, inflation concerns, and a warning from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about stagflation risks. The Fed's resistance to rate cuts weakens Trump's negotiation position. Meanwhile, global investors are losing confidence in U.S. Treasuries, and China is capitalizing on this uncertainty by launching a diplomatic charm offensive in Southeast Asia and Europe. Xi’s strategy contrasts Trump’s aggressive tariffs with a message of trade stability and unity. Despite growing demand from ASEAN, China still needs access to U.S. markets, especially to protect millions of export-driven factory jobs. However, Xi appears prepared for genuine negotiation rather than capitulation, potentially securing a strategic win akin to Japan’s previous face-saving trade deal. William Pesek, Asia Times, April 17
Chinese dragon elegantly twirled around American eagle’s neck. China has evolved from an imitator to a systemic rival, surpassing the United States in critical sectors such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, space, and quantum computing. Massive state investment and centralized strategies have enabled China to close the technology gap, with domestic chip production nearing global standards, BYD overtaking Tesla in EV sales, and AI scaled through vast data ecosystems. China now leads in satellite launches, hypersonics, and cyber capabilities, while its Belt and Road Initiative secures influence through infrastructure diplomacy. Financial innovations like the CIPS network and digital yuan are reducing global reliance on the U.S. dollar, and China's control of active pharmaceutical ingredients poses a health security risk to the West. With the world’s largest navy by vessel count and increasing maritime dominance in the Indo-Pacific, China is reshaping regional power dynamics. Rather than direct confrontation, China’s strategy leverages economic, technological, and institutional asymmetries to gradually constrain U.S. influence. The shift to multipolarity demands resilience, not neutrality, from nations navigating between competing powers. Phar Kim Beng, Asia Times, April 17
Southeast Asia
Cambodia’s Descent Into a Death Spiral: Fifty Years On. Fifty years after the Khmer Rouge seized power, Cambodia continues to grapple with the legacy of genocide that killed nearly two million people between 1975 and 1979. Despite the establishment of the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC), which prosecuted a few senior leaders, many perpetrators remain unpunished. The regime, led by Pol Pot, committed widespread atrocities, including genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. While the ECCC provided a framework for international justice, it also exposed the limits of post-conflict accountability, with decades passing before any legal redress was realized. Without a consistent global commitment to uphold justice and the rule of law, impunity can endure. Survivors still carry deep psychological scars, and Cambodia’s political environment today reflects authoritarian tendencies that further undermine democratic norms. The case illustrates how the absence of timely justice and reconciliation can haunt a nation’s political and social fabric for generations. David J. Scheffer, Council on Foreign Relations, April 16
Thailand’s tale of two democracies revisited. Thailand’s enduring political conflict stems from a deep-rooted urban–rural divide, where Bangkok’s middle class has historically rejected rural-backed governments as illegitimate, often supporting military interventions to remove them. While this tension was traditionally framed along geographic lines, recent elections reveal a change. In 2023, the reformist Move Forward Party (MFP) gained significant support across both urban and rural constituencies, showing a convergence of democratic aspirations. Urban voters increasingly reject the royalist-military power structure, while rural voters balance local concerns with national reformist agendas. However, this changing electoral landscape still shows asymmetries in democratic power. Despite the MFP’s broad support, the military-appointed Senate blocked its rise to government, showing how institutional frameworks preserve elite dominance. Voter behavior now varies within constituencies, shaped by levels of urbanisation, with candidates tailoring messages to distinct demographics. These patterns indicate not a binary divide but a nuanced political spectrum. The real challenge lies not in voter sophistication but in overcoming entrenched institutional barriers that undermine the democratic mandate. Napon Jatusripitak, East Asia Forum, April 17
Xi’s Visit to Vietnam: It’s Not All About Trump. President Xi Jinping’s April 2025 visit to Vietnam signified a deepening of Vietnam–China ties, grounded in Hanoi’s pursuit of national development rather than alignment with global power blocs. Amid Trump’s sweeping tariffs and intensifying US–China rivalry, Vietnam seeks stability and pragmatic cooperation with China to insulate its domestic reform agenda. With internal leadership transition and economic restructuring underway, Vietnam aims to move beyond its export-reliant growth model by investing in innovation, infrastructure, and high-value industries. Xi’s visit produced multiple cooperation agreements, including cross-border rail development and support for Vietnam’s North–South high-speed railway project, with emphasis on technology transfer and local capacity building. Vietnam also seeks greater integration into high-value Chinese-led supply chains in green technologies and advanced manufacturing. Despite lingering concerns over economic dependency and global scrutiny, Hanoi’s calculated openness to China shows a confident strategy that prioritizes internal resilience and development. The visit demonstrates Vietnam’s foreign policy principle of engaging all partners on its own terms and balancing external pressures without compromising national interests. Hoang Thi Ha, Fulcrum, April 17
Are the Russians Coming to Indonesia? Indonesia has denied reports that Russia sought access to Manuhau Air Base on Biak Island, but the strategic logic behind such a move raises questions. Biak’s proximity to Australia and the U.S. territory of Guam makes it a valuable surveillance outpost for Moscow, which sees America as its primary strategic rival. Despite Indonesia’s firm adherence to a non-aligned foreign policy and sensitivity over national sovereignty—particularly concerning foreign military presence in regions with active separatist movements like Papua—speculation persists. Russia’s historical interest in Biak, recent diplomatic engagement with Jakarta, and past military cooperation lend plausibility to the report, even if it remains unverified. President Prabowo Subianto’s unpredictable foreign policy decisions and openness to closer ties with Russia add to the intrigue. Though such a move would strain Indonesia’s relationships with the U.S. and Australia, the geopolitical landscape suggests that even unlikely scenarios cannot be entirely dismissed. Ian Storey, Fulcrum, April 17
Oceania
Australia holds key to countering China’s critical mineral ban. China’s imposition of expanded controls on rare earth exports has exposed the West’s heavy dependence on Beijing for critical minerals essential to defense, clean energy, and technology. With China controlling over 90% of global rare earth refining and 98% of heavy rare earth processing, its opaque licensing regime effectively halted exports. This disruption has elevated Australia’s strategic value as a stable, resource-rich U.S. ally. Projects like Mt Weld, Browns Range, and Lynas’s operations in Malaysia and Texas offer potential diversification, supported by Canberra’s Future Made in Australia initiative, which includes funding, tax credits, and stockpiling plans. However, Australia faces technological and environmental hurdles, while its dual economic ties with China and security alignment with the U.S. present diplomatic risks. Ownership concerns and Chinese price manipulation further complicate matters. Australia now occupies a pivotal role in the global critical minerals market, but success hinges on strategic investment, alliance management, and technological capability. Marina Yue Zhang, Asia Times, April 17
Australia–China misperceptions a product of their asymmetric relationship. Persistent mistrust between Australia and China stems from their asymmetric relationship, where strategic priorities, perceptions, and sensitivities diverge sharply. Australia, as a smaller regional power, is acutely sensitive to Beijing’s actions, viewing them through a lens of sovereignty and security, particularly amid tensions involving Huawei, espionage concerns, and military activities in the Pacific. Conversely, China, focused on global competition with the United States, sees Canberra’s behavior as a derivative of U.S. alignment, not as autonomous policymaking. This disparity creates a cycle of misinterpretation, with Australia’s attempts to assert independence often perceived by Beijing as provocative. Structural interdependence in trade—especially in critical minerals, intensifies Canberra’s caution despite China’s limited leverage. Military exercises, such as China’s naval drills in the Tasman Sea, amplify Australian fears, reinforcing the perception of encroachment. The relationship continues to suffer from mutual misreading, where China’s indifference and Australia’s heightened vigilance perpetuate diplomatic tension. Resolving these misperceptions requires both sides to acknowledge each other’s strategic realities and build a foundation of mutual trust. Guangyi Pan, East Asia Forum, April 18