Asia Daily: April 15, 2025
China
In Xinjiang, China’s security chief urges Mandarin use, terrorism crackdown. China’s top security official Chen Wenqing urged ethnic minorities in Xinjiang to adopt Mandarin and ordered strict counterterrorism measures during a four-day visit to the region. He called for “zero tolerance” of violent crime and extremist ideologies, emphasizing border defense and the elimination of religious extremism. Authorities in Aksu highlighted a new governance center that has resolved over 84,000 disputes. Xinlu Liang, South China Morning Post, April 14
UBS lowers forecast for China 2025 GDP growth to 3.4% on tariff hikes. UBS has reduced its 2025 growth forecast for China to 3.4%, down from 4%, due to sustained tariff increases between China and the U.S. and expectations of further domestic stimulus. The Swiss investment bank projects a two-thirds drop in Chinese exports to the U.S. and a 10% decline in overall exports in U.S. dollar terms. UBS also warned that other trade partners may impose limited product-specific tariffs but not at U.S. levels. Liz Lee and Kevin Yao, Reuters, April 15
Japan
Japan broaches ‘one-theater’ concept to U.S. for Indo-Pacific. Japan has proposed a new “one-theater” security strategy to the United States that would merge the East China Sea, South China Sea, Korean Peninsula, and surrounding areas into a unified operational zone to counter China’s growing military influence. Defense Minister Gen Nakatani presented the concept to U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on March 30, with both sides agreeing on the need for enhanced multilateral cooperation involving Australia, the Philippines, and South Korea. Mizuki Sato, The Asahi Shimbun, April 15
Ishiba, Rengo’s Yoshino agree to counter inflation, Trump’s tariffs. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba met with Rengo President Tomoko Yoshino for the first time in 16 years to discuss joint measures against inflation and U.S. tariffs. Yoshino urged support for wage hikes and narrowing gender pay gaps, warning that tariffs could undermine gains from spring labor negotiations. Ishiba pledged financial support for domestic industries and backed continued pay raises, particularly for small and midsize firms, as part of Japan’s broader economic growth strategy. Takaya Katada, The Asahi Shimbun, April 15
Japan to spend 1.8% of GDP on defense in 2025, 2% target in sight. Japan will allocate 9.9 trillion yen ($70 billion) to defense and related spending in fiscal 2025, equivalent to 1.8% of GDP, as it moves toward a 2% target by 2027. Defense Minister Gen Nakatani said 8.5 trillion yen will go directly to defense, with the remainder covering cybersecurity, peacekeeping, and coast guard operations. Kyodo News, April 15
South Korea
Acting president won't run in PPP presidential primary: floor leader. Acting President Han Duck-soo will not compete in the People Power Party’s presidential primary, according to floor leader Kweon Seong-dong, ending speculation over Han’s potential candidacy in the June 3 election. Kweon said speculation distracts from Han’s key duties, including leading efforts to resolve the U.S. tariff crisis. Han, a top contender in recent polls, previously referred to the crisis as his “final calling,” widely seen as ruling out a presidential run. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, April 15
DP to confirm presidential candidate April 27. South Korea’s Democratic Party will finalize its presidential nominee on April 27 following a two-week, four-region primary process. Online voting will occur in Chungcheong, Gyeongsang, Jeolla, and the greater Seoul area from April 16–27, alongside a public electoral college vote. The snap election is set for June 3 after the removal of President Yoon Suk Yeol. Former DP leader Lee Jae-myung, who recently declared his candidacy, currently leads polls with 48.8% support. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, April 15
Strategic balancing in South Korea’s foreign policy amid global realignment needed: experts. At a Seoul forum ahead of South Korea’s presidential election, experts called for strategic balancing in foreign policy amid shifting global dynamics under the Trump administration. Seoul National University’s Shin Beom-shik urged engagement beyond traditional alliances, emphasizing minilateralism and Global South outreach. Ajou University’s Kim Heung-kyu advocated for “all-weather diplomacy” and reduced alliance dependence. Hwang Joo-young, The Korea Herald, April 15
North Korea
N. Korea urges enduring loyalty to state leader on his grandfather’s birthday. On the 113th anniversary of Kim Il-sung’s birth, North Korea emphasized unwavering loyalty to current leader Kim Jong-un, with state media praising his leadership as the continuation of juche ideology. Rodong Sinmun described Kim’s defense and economic policies as scientific doctrines advancing socialism. While commemorative events were held, the regime has recently minimized the term “Day of the Sun,” signaling a shift in focus from Kim’s ancestors to Kim Jong-un himself. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, April 15
Thailand
Thaksin to discuss Myanmar peace and US tariffs with Malaysian PM. Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra announced he will meet Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on April 17 to discuss the Myanmar peace process and ASEAN’s role in addressing U.S. tariffs under President Trump. Emphasizing partnership over bargaining, Thaksin said ASEAN seeks development support from wealthier nations and affirmed his ties with Trump’s associates. The Nation, April 14
Thai Senate panel gears up to study casino-entertainment complex bill. A 34-member Senate committee will hold its first meeting on April 23 to begin a 180-day study of the proposed casino-entertainment complex bill. The panel, initially 35 members, includes 12 external experts, and lobbying is reportedly underway for an outsider with political ties to chair the study, raising concerns over neutrality. Tensions between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai underlie the bill, which government officials stress is an investment project — not a push to legalize gambling. Anucha Charoenpo, Bangkok Post, April 14
Vietnam
Developing relations with China remains top priority in Vietnam’s foreign policy: Party official. Politburo member Tran Cam Tu affirmed that strengthening political trust and substantive cooperation with China is a strategic choice and central to Vietnam’s foreign policy. During talks with senior Chinese official Cai Qi in Hanoi, both sides highlighted the significance of Xi Jinping’s 2025 visit and agreed to deepen bilateral mechanisms, including party-to-party exchanges and strategic coordination. Vietnam News, April 15
China, Vietnam to assess viability of new railways, document shows. China and Vietnam have agreed to launch feasibility studies for two new railway projects connecting Guangxi to Hanoi and Shenzhen to Haiphong. The studies, valued at 9.95 million yuan ($1.36 million), are expected to be completed within 12 months of selecting a contractor. A third railway line linking Vietnam to Kunming is already in progress. Francesco Guarascio and Phuong Nguyen, Reuters, April 15
Myanmar
Myanmar junta faces accusations of obstructing earthquake aid to opposition-held zones. Myanmar’s military regime is accused of blocking international humanitarian aid from reaching opposition-held areas devastated by the March 28 earthquake, which killed over 3,600 people. The National Unity Government (NUG) claims the junta is leveraging aid for political and military gain, restricting access to conflict zones despite foreign pledges worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Aid workers report delays, confiscations, and forced military oversight of distributions. Aung Naing, Myanmar Now, April 14
Scarcity of construction materials in Myanmar slows rebuilding after quake. Myanmar is experiencing a critical shortage of steel, cement, and other building supplies following the March earthquake, as import restrictions and extensive damage drive prices sharply upward. Cement that sold for 20,000 kyat earlier this year now costs up to 50,000 kyat, and is often unavailable. Prices have surged from pre-coup levels of 5,000 kyat per bag. Aung Kham, Myanmar Now, April 15
Philippines
Pinoys back ICC trial but also Duterte allies. A majority of Filipinos support former President Rodrigo Duterte facing trial at the International Criminal Court, yet many continue to back his allies in the lead-up to the May 12 midterm elections. Analysts attribute this to voters’ tendency to separate views on accountability from loyalty and name recognition. Polls show surges in support for Duterte-linked candidates like Bong Go and Ronald Dela Rosa, while opposition figures struggle to gain traction. Celebrity candidates also remain dominant. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, April 15
Senate bets: diplomacy can solve sea row. Three Philippine senatorial candidates — Arnel Escobal, Amirah Lidasan, and Allen Capuyan — advocated diplomatic approaches to address tensions in the West Philippine Sea during a televised forum. Escobal emphasized strengthening the military while relying on international cooperation, not military enforcement. Lidasan called for asserting the arbitral ruling through diplomacy and urged distancing from U.S.-China rivalry. Capuyan stressed an independent foreign policy and non-alignment.Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, April 14
Indonesia
Jordan’s king praises Indonesia’s leadership on Middle East issues. King Abdullah II of Jordan lauded President Prabowo Subianto for Indonesia’s strategic role in addressing geopolitical challenges in Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria during their meeting in Amman on April 14. Prabowo reaffirmed Indonesia’s commitment to Palestinian independence and emphasized the need for peaceful and balanced regional solutions. The visit marked the final stop in Prabowo’s Middle East tour. ANTARA News, April 15
Indonesian students in the US urged to manage social media carefully. The Indonesian government has issued new advisories warning students in the United States to exercise caution with their social media use amid increased immigration enforcement. Embassies and consulates now include social media guidelines in official visa instructions, urging students to avoid content that could be misinterpreted or result in legal action. Approximately 8,300 Indonesian students were studying in the U.S. in 2024. Heru Andriyanto, Jakarta Globe, April 15
Malaysia
Former Malaysian leader Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who extended political freedoms, dies at 85. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi died of heart disease at age 85, after being hospitalized with breathing difficulties. Known as “Pak Lah,” he served from 2003 to 2009 and initially garnered support for promoting political openness and moderate Islam following Mahathir Mohamad’s authoritarian rule. Despite early popularity, his tenure was marred by perceived weak leadership and failure to deliver key reforms. Associated Press, April 14
Taiwan
Former aide to Taiwan’s security chief expelled from DPP over spying allegations. The Democratic Progressive Party expelled Ho Jen-chieh, a former aide to National Security Council chief Joseph Wu, over allegations he spied for Beijing while serving in the foreign ministry. Prosecutors accuse Ho of leaking classified information to Chinese agents and ordered his detention to prevent evidence tampering. The case is part of a growing espionage probe implicating several current and former DPP-linked officials. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, April 14
Kazakhstan
European ambassadors visit Shymkent, Turkistan to deepen ties with Kazakhstan. A delegation of 18 European ambassadors, led by EU Ambassador Aleška Simkić and Kazakh Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vassilenko, visited Shymkent and Turkistan from April 11 to 13 to enhance bilateral cooperation. In Turkistan, Governor Nuralkhan Kusherov outlined $9 billion in investments since 2018 and ongoing projects aimed at creating 19,000 jobs. Fatima Kemelova, The Astana Times, April 14
Kazakhstan–UN Cooperation Program for 2026–2030 discussed in Astana. Kazakhstan and the United Nations unveiled a new cooperation program for 2026–2030, with a focus on inclusive economic growth, social cohesion, sustainable development, and institutional empowerment. The program includes the opening of a UN Regional Center for Sustainable Development for Central Asia and Afghanistan in Almaty. Government officials, UN representatives, and NGOs took part in the meeting. Arailym Temirgaliyeva, Kazinform, April 14
Uzbekistan
Senate of Uzbekistan holds talks with European Parliament delegation. Senate Chairperson Tanzila Narbayeva met with European Parliament delegation leader Tomas Zdechovsky on April 14 to discuss bilateral ties and future cooperation. Both parties noted the strengthening of inter-parliamentary relations and praised the successful hosting of the 150th Inter-Parliamentary Union session in Tashkent. Discussions also covered the outcomes of the April 4–5 Central Asia–EU Summit in Samarkand. Uzbekistan Daily, April 14
Tajikistan
Complaint against Tajik officials filed with International Criminal Court. The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), along with two NGOs, has submitted a complaint to the International Criminal Court accusing President Emomali Rahmon and his government of crimes against humanity. The evidence spans from 2002 to 2024, including a deadly 2022 crackdown in Gorno-Badakhshan that left dozens dead and hundreds detained. The complaint cites extrajudicial killings, torture, forced deportations, and suppression of Pamiri culture. Bruce Pannier, The Times of Central Asia, April 14
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan’s ex-president Kurmanbek Bakiyev may return to the country. Former Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, exiled in Belarus, is seeking to overturn convictions handed down in absentia and potentially return to Kyrgyzstan for a retrial. His lawyer argues that the criminal procedure code lacks clarity on trials in absentia, infringing on the right to a fair trial. Bakiyev was sentenced to 30 years for his role in the 2010 protest killings and another 10 years in 2023 for corruption. The Constitutional Court confirmed his right to appeal if he returns. Anton Chipegin, The Times of Central Asia, April 14
Northeast Asia
Understanding doubts over US extended nuclear deterrence in Asia. Credibility is central to alliance systems, yet US partners in Asia increasingly question Washington’s reliability under changing political dynamics. The absence of a NATO-like multilateral structure in Asia amplifies dependence on bilateral ties, particularly as China’s influence grows. The Trump administration’s rhetoric and policies—such as tariffs, potential NATO withdrawal, and “America First” declarations—have triggered concern over the durability of extended nuclear deterrence. While some believe Asia may be treated differently from Europe, regional uncertainty persists, especially as South Korea debates nuclear options and Japan maintains latent nuclear capabilities. Cuts to diplomatic and media programs reduce US soft power, while Trump’s focus on optics and dealmaking leaves allies unsure of long-term commitments. If the US is perceived as unreliable economically, trust in its security guarantees may erode. Australia, historically a voice against nuclear proliferation, faces the strategic challenge of improving regional efforts to prevent escalation and maintain stability. Bec Strating, Lowy Institute, April 15
Xi and Putin drive Japan and NATO closer together. Japan is strengthening ties with NATO amid rising concerns over China and Russia's strategic alignment. During NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s Indo-Pacific visit, Japan pledged to join the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), a platform supporting Ukraine’s military. Tokyo views participation as a means to study modern warfare, including cyber tactics and drone operations. Chinese and North Korean involvement in the conflict has further motivated Japan’s engagement. While China condemned NATO-Japan cooperation, Tokyo sees Beijing’s regional assertiveness as a reason to deepen alignment with European partners. Japan’s recent policies, including easing arms export restrictions and planning to co-develop advanced jets with the UK and Italy, signal a broader shift in defense posture. Although collective defense commitments remain off the table, increased collaboration in defense innovation and supply chains is expected. NATO's demand for diverse suppliers, amid strained US-Europe trade ties and weapons shortages due to the war in Ukraine, makes Japan and South Korea increasingly vital. Stuart Lau, Lowy Institute, April 15
The hidden risk of rising US–PRC tensions: export control symbiosis. Rising US-China tensions have intensified the use of export controls by both governments, creating a cycle of mutual restriction that threatens global economic stability. The United States has expanded controls on technologies like semiconductors and artificial intelligence to curb China's technological progress. In retaliation, China has introduced countermeasures, including export limits on critical minerals and blacklisting several US firms. This escalating symbiosis of economic statecraft reflects a growing trend of weaponizing interdependence. Without a strategy to manage this dynamic, the tit-for-tat measures could erode US economic resilience and disrupt international markets. To mitigate these risks, the United States must undertake thorough assessments of its economic vulnerabilities, engage in structured diplomatic dialogues with China, and closely monitor changes in Chinese legal mechanisms. Strategic communication and foresight are essential to prevent unintended consequences and to preserve global economic stability in the face of increasingly adversarial trade policies. Philip Luck, CSIS, April 14
Wonsan-Kalma Beach Resort Progresses Towards Completion. North Korea’s Wonsan-Kalma Beach Resort is nearing completion, with satellite imagery from late March and early April 2025 revealing more developments. Colorful slides have been installed at the long-dormant water park, and the pool has been lined. A new amphitheater has been constructed approximately 325 meters south of its original location, which was demolished prior to Kim Jong Un’s visit last year. In its place, a large rectangular building now stands, offering unobstructed sea views, though its purpose remains unspecified. Additionally, the roof of a building previously identified as a possible arena appears completed, although construction materials present suggest ongoing work. Conversely, the northern sports complex, once housing a football pitch and athletics track, has been dismantled, with potential building foundations observed in its stead. While the resort's external structures show substantial progress, the status of interior furnishings and amenities remains unclear. With the May 2025 opening deadline approaching, the resort's readiness to accommodate visitors, whether domestic or international, is yet to be determined. Martyn Williams, 38 North, April 14
From Honeymoon to Hard Choices: Merz’s Coming Balancing Act. Germany’s new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, faces the complex task of redefining Sino-German relations amid growing tensions between economic interests and strategic concerns. While China remains a vital trading partner, its increasing global assertiveness has prompted German political parties to adopt a more cautious stance. The previous “traffic light” coalition initiated a values-based foreign policy, focusing on human rights and strengthening ties with Indo-Pacific democracies, though implementation was inconsistent. Following the coalition's collapse and a snap election, Merz's CDU formed a Grand Coalition with the SPD, introducing a €1 trillion investment package to modernize infrastructure and defense. Balancing economic interdependence with national security, Merz must navigate Germany’s relationship with China, recognizing it as both a crucial economic partner and a systemic rival. Tim Hildebrandt, China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe, April 15
Southeast Asia
What to expect from Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund. Indonesia’s newly established sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, aims to manage state-owned enterprises and reinvest profits into strategic national projects to stimulate economic growth. With US$900 billion in assets, the fund aspires to elevate Indonesia into the ranks of developed nations. However, concerns over transparency, legal oversight, and political patronage threaten its credibility. Key leadership roles have gone to political allies of President Prabowo, including campaign figures and cabinet members, raising conflict of interest issues. This follows a longstanding pattern of elite control over state resources. Globally, Danantara shows a broader move toward state-led capitalism, driven in part by intensifying US-China rivalry. Indonesia is aligning with this trend by strengthening state influence while attracting alternative investors, notably from South Korea. Yet the fusion of regulatory and operational roles within Danantara and its opaque governance have caused investor anxiety and market instability. While the fund may become a transformative economic tool, its success hinges on addressing entrenched political interference and establishing firm accountability mechanisms. Nandito Oktaviano and Teuku Harza Mauludi, East Asia Forum, April 14
Laos Streamlines Bureaucracy to Make it More Efficient. Laos has initiated a sweeping government restructuring aimed at improving efficiency by merging ministries, eliminating redundancy, and reallocating functions. Approved in March 2025, the reforms reduce fragmentation among 47 party and state bodies, with key consolidations including the merger of finance and planning ministries and the dissolution of the Ministry of Home Affairs. Driven by fiscal constraints and an oversized civil service—comprising nearly 2.2% of the population and consuming over 6% of GDP—the changes are intended to cut costs and improve policy implementation. However, concerns remain over the contradiction between streamlining and the planned reintroduction of 950 sub-districts, which could re-expand bureaucracy. Though not part of a political power shift, the reforms will require constitutional amendments and are expected to bring voluntary and compulsory redundancies. Implementation deadlines are set for May and July 2025 at national and sub-national levels, respectively. Success will be measured by a reduction in senior administrative positions, signaling whether the plan results in tangible efficiency or remains superficial. Nick J. Freeman, Fulcrum, April 12