Asia Daily: April 15, 2024
News
Lawrence Wong to take over as Singapore Prime Minister from Lee Hsien Loong on May 15. Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is set to succeed Lee Hsien Loong as Singapore's Prime Minister on May 15. The transition, announced by the Prime Minister's Office, will take place at the Istana with Wong being sworn in at 8pm. This leadership change marks a significant moment in Singapore's political landscape as Wong and his fourth-generation team aim to guide the nation forward, building on efforts during the pandemic and other national initiatives. Channel News Asia, April 15
Senior US diplomats hold 'frank and constructive' talks with Chinese officials. Senior U.S. diplomats, including Daniel Kritenbrink and Sarah Beran, engaged in discussions aimed at managing differences and strengthening exchanges with Chinese officials, led by Foreign Vice-Minister Ma Zhaoxu. Topics covered included regional security concerns such as the South China Sea and Taiwan. Both sides expressed a commitment to continue dialogue, amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. Zhao Ziwen, South China Morning Post, April 15
PH, US troops train in jungle warfare. Philippine and US troops have launched jungle warfare training in Maguindanao del Norte as part of Marex24 exercises. This training is designed to enhance urban combat skills and readiness, marking a significant step in strengthening military cooperation. The program includes rigorous drills that prepare troops for diverse combat scenarios, reinforcing the strategic alliance between the two nations against evolving security challenges. Francisco Tuyay, The Manila Times, April 15
Central Asia is a bastion of 'consolidated' authoritarianism. According to a report by Freedom House, Central Asia's nations, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, maintain strong authoritarian governance. The study highlights Uzbekistan's recent constitutional changes that could allow President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to remain in power until 2040. This reflects a broader regional pattern where civil liberties and political freedoms are significantly restricted. Eurasianet, April 15
N. Korea's Kim vows to further develop ties with China. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met with Zhao Leji, China's top legislator, in Pyongyang to discuss enhancing their bilateral relationship. Kim emphasized the historical significance of Zhao's visit and its importance in strengthening their long-standing friendship. They explored expanding multifaceted exchanges and cooperation. This meeting marks the first high-ranking Chinese official visit to North Korea since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, April 14
Central Asian and Gulf Cooperation Council countries engage in strategic dialogue. Top diplomats from Central Asia and the Gulf Cooperation Council convened in Tashkent to discuss enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including trade, security, and environmental protection. The dialogue aims to deepen ties between these regions through joint investment projects and initiatives such as the Islamic Organization for Food Security and the Astana Hub for IT startups. A follow-up summit is scheduled for 2025 in Samarkand. The Times of Central Asia, April 15
Marcos won't hand over Duterte to ICC. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines has stated that his government will not extradite former President Rodrigo Duterte to the International Criminal Court (ICC), even if an arrest warrant is issued. Duterte is under investigation for alleged crimes against humanity related to his controversial anti-drug campaign. This stance is in line with Marcos’ previous statements on the matter. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, April 15
Myanmar rebels say they have repelled junta push to take back border town. The Karen National Union (KNU) has held control of Myawaddy, repelling Myanmar junta forces that attempted to recapture the town near the Thai border. The KNU reported about 100 casualties among junta forces and the destruction of military equipment. The conflict continued with recent battles 40 kilometers from Myawaddy along the main highway. Panu Wongcha-um, Reuters, April 15
Turkmenistan and USA set to strengthen partnership. Turkmenistan and the USA are enhancing their bilateral relations, focusing on political, economic, and environmental cooperation. This progression follows the latest annual political consultations in Ashgabat, attended by leaders including Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov and US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State John Pommersheim. They discussed education, cultural programs, and joint environmental commitments, particularly Turkmenistan's new involvement in the Global Methane Commitment. The Times of Central Asia, April 15
Modi's BJP promises jobs, common civil code in manifesto for India election. Ahead of the multiphase general election, India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has released its manifesto, pledging job creation and a common civil code to ensure gender equality. The manifesto outlines extensive economic goals, including expanding India's economy to $5 trillion by 2027, amidst ongoing challenges like unemployment and inflation. Al Jazeera, April 14
32nd session of the National Assembly Standing Committee kicked off. Vietnam's National Assembly Standing Committee has initiated its 32nd session, chaired by NA Chairman Vương Đình Huệ. The four-day session will cover 18 topics including five draft amended laws, socio-economic recovery, and major national projects. This session demonstrates the government's commitment to improving legislative frameworks, reflecting significant policy priorities like economic reforms and the enhancement of legal systems. Vietnam News, April 15
PM dismisses cabinet reshuffle rumors. Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has publicly refuted rumors of an impending cabinet reshuffle. While addressing media speculation during a vacation in Hua Hin, he clarified that no changes are imminent and reassured mentioned officials that the rumors were unfounded. This statement comes amidst speculation of major ministerial reassignments post-Songkran, affecting key positions like the finance and defense ministries. Panumate Tanraksa and Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, April 14
Yoon discusses Mideast tensions, N.K. issues with U.S. envoy. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol met with U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, to discuss Middle East tensions and North Korea sanctions. During her visit, they explored strengthening the comprehensive strategic alliance between South Korea and the U.S., and emphasized cooperation in maintaining U.N. sanctions against North Korea. The meetings also covered potential impacts on the global economy and supply chains. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, April 15
Solomon Islands’ elections could impact China’s influence in the South Pacific. The Solomon Islands' election could significantly affect regional dynamics as Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, known for his pro-Beijing stance, seeks another term. His previous shift of allegiance from Taiwan to Beijing has heightened concerns about China's growing influence and potential military presence in the South Pacific. The election is also shadowed by fears of violence due to internal tensions and concerns over vote-buying practices. Rod McGuirk, AP News, April 14
Long Form
China Buys Time: Increases Surplus Contribution from EU/US Blocs by Importing Less, While Struggling to Boost Exports Elsewhere. China has strategically managed its trade balances, particularly with the EU and US, by decreasing imports which, combined with stable exports, has contributed to an increased trade surplus. Despite a global decrease in exports, China has maintained a daily surplus of $2.3 billion over the past year. Concurrently, tensions rise as the EU investigates Chinese wind turbine manufacturers for subsidy violations, which could impact trade relations. Additionally, China's significant role in the integrated circuits market, especially with Taiwan, shows its crucial position in global supply chains. Amidst these dynamics, China faces criticism and potential economic reassessment from global entities like Fitch, reflecting ongoing challenges in managing its economic strategies and international perceptions.
, April 15Philippines’ Marcos Renewable Energy Plans Encouraging. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is advancing significant initiatives to reduce the country's dependence on fossil fuels by allowing full foreign ownership in renewable energy projects. This policy shift, enacted in December 2022, enables foreign investors to own up to 100 percent of solar, wind, hydro, and ocean or tidal energy projects. Despite these encouraging steps, the Philippines remains the largest coal importer in the region, with coal making up 60 percent of its power generation.
, April 152 Years on, Ukraine’s Sinking of the Moskva Intrigues China’s Naval Strategists. Two years after Ukraine's striking military action against the Russian cruiser Moskva, China's naval strategists remain deeply engaged in analyzing the implications of the conflict for modern naval warfare. The People's Liberation Army (PLA), which has been rapidly modernizing partly by integrating Russian weapons systems and doctrines, is particularly focused on understanding the dynamics of contemporary combat scenarios, including the use of anti-ship missiles and drones. Despite a close China-Russia relationship that might temper public critique, Chinese military analysts are scrutinizing the broader lessons of the Russia-Ukraine War to enhance the PLA's operational readiness and to anticipate future warfare developments. Lyle Goldstein, Nathan Waechter, The Diplomat, April 15
Behind the EU’s New Probe Into China’s Green Tech Subsidies. The European Union has initiated a new investigation into subsidies for Chinese-made wind turbines, marking a continued push for EU autonomy in green technology sectors. Initiated by European Commission Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager, this probe targets five windmill parks across Spain, France, Greece, Romania, and Bulgaria. This action follows a broader trend under Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, emphasizing economic security and reducing dependency on external green technologies, particularly from China. This probe is part of broader EU efforts to ensure fairness and competitiveness in the burgeoning green technology market. Valeria Fappani, Blanca Marabini San Martín, The Diplomat, April 15
Charting a New Course: Why the US Navy Must Confront Unrealistic Optimism. As China accelerates its naval capabilities, the U.S. Navy is urged to reassess its strategies due to a critical "optimism bias" that could skew its response to changing dynamics in the Asia Pacific. The Sea-Air-Space defense conference revealed concerns among U.S. Navy leadership and defense executives about delays in shipbuilding and other naval projects. These issues were revealed in an internal report ordered by Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro, prompting a candid admission from the Navy’s acquisition chief, Nickolas Guertin, about the lack of concrete plans and the need for a realistic appraisal of the current situation to improve future operations. Jeffrey M. Voth, The Diplomat, April 15
Japan's economic house is now in much better order. Japan has recently shown notable economic improvements under the radar. With its first interest rate increase in 17 years, Japan has signaled a shift from the world's longest zero interest-rate policy, marking a significant turn in its economic strategies. Despite modest GDP growth rates, Japan's economic advancements are significant when compared to global standards. Notably, Japan is leveraging its high female labor force participation and improving productivity, which has surpassed many G7 nations. The structural changes in Japan's economy are setting it up for a potential shift in the Asia-Pacific economic dynamics, especially in comparison to China's dominance. Richard Yetsenga, Nikkei Asia, April 15
Bank of Thailand ignores Srettha's pressure to cut interest rate. Despite pressures from Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, resisting calls for a decrease aimed at boosting the slowing economy. Srettha had pushed for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points, aligning with his 500 billion baht digital handout planned for low-income Thais. The central bank's decision reflects a cautious approach amid inflation expectations and potential structural economic issues, prioritizing long-term economic stability over short-term relief. The BOT's stance is a testament to the independence required to navigate complex economic challenges without succumbing to political pressures. Francesca Regalado, Nikkei Asia, April 15
Japan lags South Korea and Taiwan in boosting midsize businesses. Japan is grappling with structural economic challenges, notably its approach to fostering midsize businesses, lagging behind South Korea and Taiwan. The classification of companies in Japan is rigid, with many incentives aimed at smaller enterprises, discouraging growth to preserve benefits. Conversely, South Korea and Taiwan have successfully nurtured midsize enterprises in strategic sectors like semiconductors and energy. Japan is now attempting to catch up by proposing a new legal category for midsize companies to make them eligible for similar incentives. This is a part of a broader effort to enhance domestic investment and support local economies by promoting growth among midsize companies, which have been overshadowed by larger corporations and smaller enterprises. Hiroyuki Akiyama, Nikkei Asia, April 13
U.S.-China fight over manufacturing subsidies just getting started. The ongoing dispute between the U.S. and China over manufacturing subsidies is intensifying, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's recent visit to China highlighting the challenges ahead. Yellen's efforts to persuade Chinese officials to focus more on boosting domestic demand and less on surplus industrial production met with little success. This is reminiscent of the deep-seated issues at the core of U.S.-China economic tensions, particularly concerning China's industrial strategy which the U.S. views as unbalanced. The discussions indicate a protracted disagreement that could shape future economic relations between the two superpowers. Stephen Olson, Nikkei Asia, April 15
Germany walks the talk on Southeast Asia. Germany's pivot towards Southeast Asia under Chancellor Olaf Scholz's leadership marks a significant shift in its foreign policy, focusing on reducing economic dependencies on China. Highlighted by high-profile visits from leaders of Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, Germany is actively fostering relations to diversify trade and secure supplies for its green transition. Scholz's administration is also promoting democracy and regional stability in the face of global geopolitical shifts, potentially intensified by changes in the U.S. administration. This engagement is part of a broader German effort to enhance its presence in Asia, balancing economic interests with geopolitical realities. Chhengpor Aun, East Asia Forum, April 15
Navigating faith and freedom in China’s house churches. In China, the evolution of Christianity has been deeply entwined with the nation's political and cultural history, yet it faces significant challenges under the current regime. After the Communist takeover, Christianity was often suppressed, seen as an imperialist influence. Despite this, the post-Mao era saw a resurgence of Protestantism, which today involves tens of millions of followers. Many of these Christians opt for "house churches" to avoid state control and maintain spiritual independence. These communities frequently clash with authorities, as their refusal to register with the state and adhere strictly to official religious frameworks puts them at odds with governmental policies. This struggle represents not just a fight for religious autonomy but also a broader engagement with the concepts of human rights and social activism within the framework of Chinese governance. Yu Tao, East Asia Forum, April 13
Western banks are vacating the Pacific; Nauru turning to China. As Western banks retract from the Pacific, Nauru is pivoting towards China, marking a shift in regional financial dynamics. Nauru has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Bank of China to explore banking solutions, coinciding with the planned exit of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank — Nauru's sole banking institution. This move could shift the financial landscape in Nauru from Australian to Chinese influence, potentially promoting the renminbi over the Australian dollar, which has broader implications for the region's economic alignment with global powers. The potential departure from established global financial regulations could further isolate Nauru, complicating its international financial relationships and increasing its economic dependency on China. Jessica Collins, Lowy Institute, April 15
Is South Korea’s Indo-Pacific Strategy a diplomatic lame duck? South Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy faces uncertain prospects following President Yoon Suk-yeol's significant electoral defeat. Initially seen as an opportunity to enhance bilateral relations with countries like Australia, the strategy now seems at risk of losing momentum due to political shifts at home. Yoon's administration, which has been marked by a discrepancy between grandiose rhetoric and actual policy execution, particularly in international affairs, has not managed to solidify its foreign policy achievements. As Yoon's focus potentially shifts to domestic issues and navigating a challenging legislative environment, the reliability and implementation of South Korea’s foreign policy initiatives, including the Indo-Pacific strategy, may be compromised, affecting its diplomatic credibility and international relationships. Jeffrey Robertson, Lowy Institute, April 15