Asia Daily: April 14, 2025
China
China’s exports jump 12.4% and imports fell as Trump pushed US tariffs higher. China’s exports surged 12.4% in March as companies rushed to ship goods before a 145% U.S. tariff increase took effect, while imports dropped 4.3%. The first quarter saw a 5.8% export rise and 7% import decline. China recorded a $27.6 billion trade surplus with the U.S. in March and expanded exports to Southeast Asia and Africa. Officials cited the country’s diversified export markets and large domestic demand as buffers amid global uncertainty. Elaine Kurtenbach, Associated Press, April 14
China seeks British backing to defend international trade as Trump tariff war escalates. China has called on the United Kingdom to support multilateral trade and oppose U.S. protectionism, amid escalating tariffs from the Trump administration. During talks in Beijing, Chinese Vice-Minister for Commerce Ling Ji told British Trade Minister Douglas Alexander that China’s countermeasures were necessary to defend national interests and promote global economic stability. Orange Wang, South China Morning Post, April 12
Japan
84% expect Trump’s tariffs to affect their livelihoods: Kyodo poll. A Kyodo News survey found that 84.2% of Japanese respondents believe U.S. President Donald Trump’s increased tariffs will harm their standard of living. The majority also viewed the tariff policy as unjustified, though only 18.3% supported retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, 55.3% opposed cash handouts without income caps, and 82.7% felt government action on rice price inflation was inadequate. Kyodo News, April 13
China, Japan hold technical talks over seafood import ban. China and Japan conducted technical discussions over Beijing’s seafood import ban, imposed in August 2023 following Japan’s discharge of treated radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi plant. The talks, held online on April 10, follow earlier in-person negotiations and an agreement for gradual resumption of imports contingent on China’s participation in IAEA monitoring. Chinese customs stated the talks do not indicate an imminent lifting of the ban. Kyodo News, April 13
New U.S. ambassador to Japan ‘optimistic’ about tariff negotiations. George Glass, the incoming U.S. ambassador to Japan, expressed confidence ahead of trade talks following President Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, though a 10% baseline duty remains in effect. Glass pledged to uphold Trump’s trade agenda and press Tokyo on defense contributions. Prime Minister Ishiba has tasked Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa with leading Japan’s negotiating team. Results from talks are not expected immediately. Jesse Johnson, The Japan Times, April 13
South Korea
Acting president says to 'fulfill final calling' amid presidential rumors. South Korea’s Acting President Han Duck-soo dismissed speculation of a presidential run by pledging to focus on resolving the U.S. tariff crisis, which he called his “final calling.” Speaking at a Cabinet meeting, Han urged ministers to devise strategic responses to trade barriers and emphasized his intent to leverage his trade expertise. With 8.6% support in a recent Realmeter poll, Han is viewed as a potential candidate for the June 3 election despite not declaring. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, April 14
Former DP leader Lee leads presidential election poll. Former Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung is leading South Korea’s presidential race with 48.8% support, according to a Realmeter poll conducted April 10–12. The June 3 election follows the removal of ex-President Yoon Suk Yeol. Conservative candidate Kim Moon-soo trails with 10.9%, while Acting President Han Duck-soo, who has not announced a bid, entered the poll with 8.6%. The Democratic Party holds a 46.7% approval rating, ahead of the People Power Party’s 33.1%. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, April 14
North Korea
N. Korean leader sends educational aid to pro-Pyongyang ethnic Koreans in Japan. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has sent ¥287 million (US$1.99 million) in educational aid and stipends to the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan to support Korean schools ahead of the April 15 birthday of founder Kim Il-sung. The Korean Central News Agency noted that Kim has continued the annual donations since 2011, with the regime sending nearly ¥50 billion in total to the community. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, April 14
Thailand
Thaksin urges strategy in trade negotiations with United States. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has called on Thai agencies to thoroughly prepare before negotiating with the U.S., warning that global trade tensions could strain the Thai economy. He stressed unity and inclusive dialogue, expressing support for Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s leadership. Thaksin, in contact with individuals close to Donald Trump, proposed lifting certain Thai trade barriers. The Nation, April 13
Thaksin upbeat on entertainment complex bill. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra expressed confidence that the entertainment complex bill, which includes provisions for legal casinos, will pass in the House with sufficient coalition support. Though the bill’s reading was postponed due to rising protests and pressing trade issues with the U.S., Thaksin said the delay was minor. He dismissed claims that the bill is solely about casino legalization and noted that coalition tensions, particularly with Bhumjaithai, are manageable. Panumet Tanraksa, Bangkok Post, April 14
Probe into Thaksin hospital stay ‘on track’. The Medical Council of Thailand confirmed that its ethics investigation into doctors involved in the hospitalization of former inmate Thaksin Shinawatra is proceeding as scheduled, with no delays expected. The probe, focused on his extended stay at Police General Hospital, is backed by extensive documentation and expected to conclude by May. If findings are contested, a two-thirds council vote is required to finalize the decision. Apinya Wipatayotin, Bangkok Post, April 12
Vietnam
China's Xi urges stronger trade ties with Vietnam amid US tariff tensions. President Xi Jinping called for deeper trade and supply chain cooperation with Vietnam as he began a Southeast Asia tour in Hanoi, citing protectionism and tariff disputes with the U.S. China faces 145% U.S. tariffs, while Vietnam is negotiating reductions on a threatened 46% tariff. The two nations plan to sign about 40 cooperation agreements, although financial terms remain unclear. Francesco Guarascio and Liz Lee, Reuters, April 14
Vietnam’s party chief wants enhanced defence, security, connectivity with China. Vietnamese Communist Party Chief To Lam called for expanded cooperation with China in diplomacy, defense, security, and infrastructure ahead of President Xi Jinping’s April 14–15 state visit. Writing in Chinese state media, Lam identified three rail projects with China as Vietnam’s top strategic infrastructure priorities. Phuong Nguyen, Reuters, April 13
Laos
Laos pledges stronger action on population and development. Laos reaffirmed its commitment to health and well-being as foundations for sustainable development during the 58th Session of the UN Commission on Population and Development. Ambassador Anouparb Vongnorkeo highlighted progress since the 2023 National Conference on Population and Development, including new strategies for reproductive health, gender equality, and youth empowerment. Laos plans a fully digital 2025 census, a Population Policy Coordination Committee, and targeted health policies through 2030. Vientiane Times, April 12
Philippines
Philippines says voiced South China Sea concerns during ASEAN-China negotiations. The Philippines raised maritime safety concerns during the latest ASEAN-China talks on a code of conduct in the South China Sea, citing recent incidents that endangered its vessels and personnel. The April 9–11 negotiations addressed key issues including the code’s scope and legal enforceability. Manila reaffirmed its stance on international law, referencing the 2016 arbitral ruling invalidating China’s territorial claims. Karen Lema, Reuters, April 13
Truth Commission on drug war pushed. Human rights lawyer Katrina Conti has renewed calls for a national Truth Commission to address the systemic violence of the Philippines’ drug war, arguing that the ongoing International Criminal Court case against former President Rodrigo Duterte is not enough. Conti envisions a legally grounded, inclusive body to document testimonies from victims, families, and perpetrators. Modeled on similar commissions in post-conflict nations, it aims to expose root causes and break the country’s entrenched culture of impunity. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, April 13
Indonesia
President Prabowo witnesses signing of MoU in Qatar. President Prabowo Subianto met Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani at the Amiri Diwan Palace in Doha to witness the signing of several memoranda of understanding aimed at enhancing Indonesia-Qatar relations. The agreements cover economic, investment, and development cooperation. The visit featured a formal state welcome and a bilateral meeting, including a private tête-à-tête between the two leaders. ANTARA News, April 13
Indonesia, Egypt agree on upgraded strategic partnership. Presidents Prabowo Subianto and Abdel Fattah El Sisi have elevated Indonesia-Egypt relations to a strategic partnership following their meeting at Cairo’s Al Ittihadiya Palace. The agreement aims to deepen cooperation across politics, economy, defense, education, culture, and inter-community ties, anchored in mutual trust and historical friendship. The leaders also discussed the Gaza crisis and regional stability. ANTARA News, April 13
Malaysia
Anwar to meet Thai PM, junta chief in Bangkok; talks include Sungai Golok floods, Myanmar ceasefire. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Thailand this week to meet Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, with discussions set to cover Sungai Golok flood mitigation and extending Myanmar’s ceasefire. Ahead of the meeting, Anwar emphasized the importance of regional stability and said Malaysia’s humanitarian aid, including a temporary field hospital, hinges on a continued military halt in Myanmar. Malay Mail, April 14
Singapore
Singapore central bank eases policy as US tariffs threaten growth. Singapore’s central bank loosened monetary policy for the second time this year in response to rising U.S. tariffs and weakening global trade. The Monetary Authority of Singapore lowered the slope of its exchange rate policy band, while leaving its width and center unchanged. The trade ministry cut 2025 growth forecasts to 0–2% after a 0.8% GDP contraction in Q1. Xinghui Kok, Yantoultra Ngui and Jun Yong, Reuters, April 13
Taiwan
Taiwan braces as ruling DPP backs recall campaign in bid to retake control of legislature. Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has launched a sweeping recall campaign targeting opposition lawmakers in a bid to reclaim legislative control. The DPP is backing civil society-led efforts to unseat at least six Kuomintang legislators, citing opposition obstruction and national security concerns. The Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party accuse the DPP of subverting democratic norms. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, April 13
Taiwan, Tuvalu to sign labor deal during deputy PM’s visit. Tuvalu Deputy Prime Minister Panapasi Nelesone has arrived in Taipei for a five-day visit during which Taiwan and Tuvalu will sign two agreements to boost cooperation in labor and seafaring sectors. One accord covers bilateral labor affairs, while the other allows Tuvalu to recognize Taiwan-issued seafarer certifications. Nelesone is scheduled to meet President William Lai and Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung. Taipei Times, April 14
Kazakhstan
Council of Europe hosts roundtable meeting on democratic reforms in Kazakhstan. The Council of Europe held a roundtable on Kazakhstan’s democratic reforms, attended by EU parliamentarians, experts, and journalists. Constitutional Court Chairwoman Elvira Azimova outlined efforts to strengthen constitutional supremacy, judicial independence, and human rights protections. European delegates welcomed Kazakhstan’s reform agenda and expressed support for ongoing dialogue. Arailym Temirgaliyeva, Kazinform, April 13
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan establishes diplomatic relations with Burkina Faso, Belize, Somalia. Kyrgyzstan has formalized diplomatic ties with Burkina Faso, Belize, and Somalia following Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev’s visit to New York. Joint communiqués were signed by the countries' permanent representatives to the United Nations. The parties committed to expanding political dialogue and agreed to deepen cooperation through bilateral consultations and high-level exchanges. Baktygul Osmonalieva, 24KG, April 12
Northeast Asia
China Bites Back on Trade. China has launched a series of retaliatory trade actions targeting Western firms and sectors, marking a change from its previously cautious stance amid escalating economic tensions. In response to Western restrictions on Chinese tech firms and green energy products, Beijing has increased scrutiny of foreign companies, initiated anti-dumping probes—particularly against EU pork imports—and signaled tighter regulatory oversight on critical sectors. These measures are part of a broader effort to leverage China’s vast market and industrial scale to deter further Western decoupling. Beijing is now more confident in using its trade tools, especially as global supply chains adjust to post-pandemic realignments. However, this assertiveness carries risks, including reinforcing negative investor sentiment and pushing firms to diversify away from China. The campaign also reflects growing nationalist sentiment within China, with authorities seeking to frame these actions as protective of national interests. As trade friction with the U.S. and EU deepens, China’s willingness to retaliate economically signals a new phase in global trade dynamics, where assertive reciprocity may increasingly replace quiet diplomacy. Juan Zhang, US-China Perception Monitor, April 10
Southeast Asia
Indonesia needs real tax reform, not another amnesty. Indonesia’s proposed third tax amnesty, now part of the 2025 legislative agenda, risks undermining tax compliance and public trust rather than improving revenue collection. Past amnesties in 2016 and 2022 saw sharp declines in participation and funds recovered, with the second round drawing 74 percent fewer taxpayers. Many participants reoffended, revealing a pattern of weak enforcement and limited post-amnesty accountability. Despite global efforts to tighten tax systems and promote transparency—exemplified by the UN’s push for a fairer international tax regime and the G20’s wealth tax proposal—Indonesia’s repeated amnesties signal tolerance for evasion. Without robust enforcement or systemic reform, a third amnesty would likely worsen inequality and erode the tax base. The lack of new oversight tools or legal mechanisms further weakens its credibility. Instead, Indonesia should develop targeted, long-term strategies, including stronger taxation frameworks for high-net-worth individuals and improved asset recovery mechanisms. Abandoning amnesties in favor of sustainable reform would improve domestic fiscal integrity and align the country with emerging global norms on fair and effective taxation.
Yosephine Uliarta and Andi Mohammad Ilham, East Asia Forum, April 12
Southeast Asia’s Potential Role in Rare Earth Elements Diversification. Southeast Asia is emerging as a key region in global efforts to diversify supply chains for rare earth elements (REEs), which are critical to green technologies and defense systems. As major economies reduce dependence on China—currently the dominant global supplier—countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Myanmar are gaining strategic importance due to their substantial REE reserves. Vietnam, in particular, is positioning itself as a major player, with policy incentives, international partnerships, and an estimated 22 million tons of REE reserves. However, the region faces significant challenges, including limited technical expertise, lack of advanced refining capabilities, and environmental concerns related to extraction processes. While Myanmar remains a top supplier of heavy rare earths, its political instability and informal mining practices raise sustainability issues. Malaysia, though home to established processing facilities, has shown increasing caution due to environmental impacts. Strategic cooperation, investment in value-added processing, and regulatory harmonization are necessary for Southeast Asia to fully realize its potential as a reliable REE alternative. As geopolitical competition intensifies, the region’s role in securing diversified and resilient supply chains will become increasingly pivotal. Gloria Lin, Fulcrum, April 12
The Narrative Battle for Malay-Muslim Support: PAS’ Exclusivist Dominance vs Madani’s Administrative Tactics. Malaysia’s political contest over Malay-Muslim support is intensifying, with the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) leveraging religiously framed narratives to strengthen its position, while Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s administration promotes inclusive governance under the “Malaysia Madani” concept. PAS’s approach relies on portraying itself as the sole protector of Islam, supported by extensive grassroots networks and religious institutions. This exclusivist stance resonates strongly in the Malay heartlands, where religious identity is closely tied to political loyalty. In contrast, the Madani government has focused on service delivery, administrative competence, and anti-corruption messaging, hoping to win support through practical governance rather than ideological appeals. However, this strategy has struggled to counter PAS’s deep cultural resonance and perceived religious legitimacy. The administration’s reliance on bureaucratic efficiency faces limitations in rural areas where PAS maintains dominant influence through religious schools and informal networks. The battle for narrative control demonstrates the challenge of unifying Malaysia’s ethnically and religiously diverse society, particularly as religion continues to shape political allegiance. Without a compelling counter-narrative that speaks to both faith and governance, the current administration may find it difficult to change the balance in key constituencies. Amrita Malhi, Fulcrum, April 12
Thailand’s New Semiconductor Strategy: Ambitious but Challenging. Thailand has unveiled a new national semiconductor policy aimed at transforming the country into a regional hub for chip design and advanced packaging. The strategy focuses on attracting foreign investment, developing a skilled workforce, and upgrading domestic research and development capabilities. Key measures include the establishment of a National Semiconductor Board, tax incentives, and collaboration with global industry players. However, the policy faces hurdles, including limited existing infrastructure for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, a shortage of high-level technical expertise, and strong regional competition from countries like Taiwan, South Korea, and Malaysia. While Thailand has strengths in automotive and electronics assembly, transitioning to upstream activities such as chip design and fabrication requires long-term commitment and substantial investment. Furthermore, geopolitical dynamics and U.S.-China tech rivalry may influence Thailand’s ability to position itself as a neutral and attractive investment destination. The success of the strategy will depend on consistent policy implementation, sustained public-private partnerships, and regional integration within ASEAN’s broader tech ecosystem. Juthathip Jongwanich and Archanun Kohpaiboon, Fulcrum, April 11
South Asia
Three-way energy play: The India-Sri Lanka-UAE deal in Trincomalee. India, Sri Lanka, and the United Arab Emirates have signed a strategic energy and infrastructure agreement centered on Trincomalee, a key port city in eastern Sri Lanka. The deal includes plans for a cross-border pipeline and potentially a new refinery, though specific details remain limited. UAE’s role is unclear but likely involves redevelopment of the World War II-era Trincomalee Tank Farm, partially owned by Indian Oil Corp. The partnership comes amid India’s concerns over rising Chinese influence, especially after Sinopec announced a major refinery project in Hambantota. Local opposition to Indian involvement persists, especially among Sri Lankan unions and political factions, citing past controversies and perceived encroachments. Despite prior setbacks, including stalled joint ventures and opposition to Indian projects like Adani’s wind farm, India continues to assert influence in Trincomalee through energy, religious, and solar initiatives. The trilateral model offers India a cost-effective strategy to counterbalance China, while UAE seeks to deepen regional ties and challenge Saudi Arabia’s growing alignment with Beijing. Although investment hesitancy remains due to vague project outlines, the agreement enhances India’s strategic leverage in Sri Lanka’s energy sector. Rushali Saha, Lowy Institute, April 11
Why Bangladesh is courting China – and what India can do about it. Under the leadership of Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh is recalibrating its foreign policy to reduce reliance on any single power, including India. A recent state visit to China signaled Dhaka’s openness to deeper ties with Beijing, resulting in over $1 billion in pledged investments and agreements spanning infrastructure, river data-sharing, and defense cooperation. This has unsettled New Delhi, which enjoyed a close alliance with former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. India’s perceived dominance, unresolved bilateral issues, and recent retaliatory actions—such as ending cargo trans-shipment access—have strained ties. Rising anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, fueled by water disputes, border tensions, and restrictive visa policies, adds to diplomatic friction. Despite this, India retains an opportunity to rebuild trust by resolving longstanding grievances, easing people-to-people exchanges, and approaching Dhaka as an equal partner. Bangladesh’s evolving stance shows a desire for strategic autonomy, not alignment with a rival power. With elections on the horizon, Dhaka’s foreign policy trajectory remains fluid. Regional actors like India and Australia must respect Bangladesh’s sovereignty and respond to its aspirations if they aim to maintain influence in South Asia’s changing landscape. Mohammad Imon Kazi, Lowy Institute, April 10