Asia Daily: April 12, 2024
News
China set to establish South China Sea naval hotline with Vietnam as Philippine tensions rise. China and Vietnam plan to establish a naval hotline to address tensions in the South China Sea, enhancing communication at the theater level to manage maritime incidents. This agreement, signed amid increasing confrontations in the region, aims to maintain stability without undermining bilateral relations, despite recent disputes involving the Philippines. Seong Hyeon Choi and Amber Wang, South China Morning Post, April 12
US sees no reason for China to see US meetings with Japan, Philippines as a threat. The White House has dismissed China's concerns over the recent U.S. summit with Japan and the Philippines, stating these discussions were not directed against any nation. National security spokesperson John Kirby highlighted that the summit aimed to reinforce existing alliances and identify new cooperative opportunities in the Indo-Pacific, focusing on mutual benefits and challenges rather than posing a threat. Steve Holland and Doina Chiacu, Reuters, April 12
China summons Japanese, Philippine diplomats over negative comments. China has expressed strong dissatisfaction by summoning Japanese and Philippine diplomats, responding to remarks made at a recent U.S.-led summit. These discussions, which addressed China's actions in the South China Sea and other security concerns, have heightened tensions. China opposes the formation of what it perceives as exclusive groups in the region, advocating against actions that escalate regional discord. Liz Lee, Reuters, April 12
Pope will travel to Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, and Singapore in longest trip of papacy. Pope Francis will undertake his most extensive papal journey yet from September 2-13, visiting Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, and Singapore. This significant tour is aimed at strengthening the message of tolerance, unity, and peace among diverse religious communities. Highlights of the trip include reinforcing the Catholic Church’s influence in East Timor and engaging with Singapore’s Catholic community, recently elevated by the appointment of its first cardinal. Nicole Winfield and Niniek Karmini, AP News, April 12
MFP may get more time to file its dissolution defense. The Constitutional Court of Thailand might extend the deadline for the Move Forward Party (MFP) to submit its defense in case surrounding its potential mandated dissolution, potentially granting an additional 15 days from April 17. This extension is due to the complexity of the case, involving allegations related to the lese majeste law and the potential implications for MFP lawmakers. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, April 11
Top legislator wraps up official visit to China. Vietnam's National Assembly Chairman Vương Đình Huệ has completed his official visit to China, focusing on bolstering bilateral relations across defense, economics, and politics. During his visit, he engaged in over 40 official meetings aimed at reinforcing the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between the two nations. This trip also served as a platform for discussing future collaborations and addressing regional challenges together. Vietnam News, April 12
Indian voters want jobs and lower prices, survey shows. According to a survey by Lokniti-CSDS, unemployment and rising prices are the top concerns among Indian voters ahead of the general election. Despite challenges in job creation and economic disparities, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership and the Hindu nationalist agenda are seen as likely to aid his re-election. The survey highlights the importance of Modi's actions, including the consecration of the Ram temple, in influencing voter sentiment. Shivam Patel and Sakshi Dayal, Reuters, April 12
As Bishimbayev Case Continues, Kazakhstan Toughens Domestic Violence Laws. As the trial of former Kazakh Economy Minister Kuandyk Bishimbayev progresses, Kazakhstan has enacted a law to enhance protections against domestic violence. This new legislation introduces tougher penalties, including life imprisonment for severe offenses, reflecting a broader push to address and mitigate domestic abuse. The law's success will depend on its implementation and the resources allocated to support its measures. The Times of Central Asia, April 12
Leader of biggest LDP faction seeks review of funds scandal penalty. Ryu Shionoya, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party's largest faction in Japan, has challenged the recommendation for him to leave the party due to a fundraising scandal. He disputes the factual basis of the allegations and demands a fair assessment. Shionoya's objection highlights internal conflicts within the LDP and raises questions about accountability and transparency in political fundraising practices. Kyodo News, April 12
Kyrgyzstan Minister Says Case Against Media Workers Not About Politics. Kyrgyzstan's Minister of Internal Affairs has emphasized that the legal actions against journalists from the news outlet Temirov Live are purely legal in nature, asserting no political motivations. The case has sparked concerns regarding potential encroachments on press freedom, as it involves allegations of journalists spreading panic through unverified or false information. The Times of Central Asia, April 11
Singapore's GDP grows at a faster pace in Q1 2024. Singapore's economy saw a 2.7% year-on-year increase in the first quarter of 2024, marking a significant acceleration from previous growth rates. This expansion was driven by robust performances in the manufacturing and services sectors, according to advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry. Singapore's growth rate is expected to rise as high as 3.2% this year. Michelle Teo and Nadia Jansen Hassan, Channel News Asia, April 12
Long Form
China’s New Currency Peg. It is increasingly clear that China's exchange rate, once described as a "managed float," has ceased to realistically reflect such a classification. Despite claims of minimal intervention by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the yuan has notably ceased its free float, with its trading strictly within a two-percentage point band around the daily fix, which itself has become stagnant. This shift has stabilized the yuan against ongoing depreciation pressures, but at the cost of genuine market determination. This pegging approach, while ostensibly maintaining currency stability, may have broader implications for China's economic strategy and its interaction with global markets, particularly as it navigates its substantial trade surpluses and the tensions these create in international relations. This situation puts the PBOC, as well as the U.S. and the International Monetary Fund, in a delicate position, challenging the longstanding advice that China should allow more market influence in its exchange rate policy. Brad W. Setser, Council on Foreign Relations, April 11
Is Singapore Doing Enough to Safeguard Itself Against Cybersecurity Attacks and Scams? Despite rigorous efforts to fortify its cyber-defenses, Singapore continues to face significant challenges in cybersecurity, impacting over 80% of surveyed organizations in 2023. These incidents frequently lead to operational disruptions, data loss, and reputational harm, with ransomware attacks being notably prevalent. The Cyber Security Agency of Singapore (CSA) highlights a critical shortfall in the necessary knowledge and expertise across organizations, noting that only a third have implemented adequate measures from the recommended Cyber Essentials. Ronald Lee, Edmund Lim, The Diplomat, April 12
A Warm Welcome for Japan’s Kishida in Washington. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan received a high-profile reception in Washington, D.C., marked by a state dinner hosted by President Joe Biden and attended by notable figures including celebrities and top U.S. officials. This visit, featuring Kishida's address to the U.S. Congress and a meeting with the President of the Philippines, also brought a significant proposition—Japan's potential inclusion in the AUKUS security pact. This offer, however, places Japan in a complex position as it navigates its strategic priorities in the region amidst evolving international alliances. Duncan Bartlett, The Diplomat, April 12
In South Korea, President Yoon’s Lame Duck Era Officially Begins. The Democratic Party of Korea achieved a commanding victory in South Korea's 22nd general elections, capturing 175 of 300 seats in the National Assembly, largely propelled by President Yoon Suk-yeol's unpopularity. This election result has firmly positioned President Yoon as a lame duck, with opposition parties collectively holding a two-thirds majority in the legislature. This shift dramatically curtails Yoon's ability to govern effectively and sets a challenging course for his administration over the next three years, as he confronts an assembly dominated by his opponents. Mitch Shin, The Diplomat, April 12
Malaysian 'Silicon Valley' seeds homegrown chip startups. Penang, Malaysia, often dubbed the "Silicon Valley of the East," is experiencing a resurgence in its semiconductor sector, thanks to efforts by former Intel engineers who are propelling the region towards the high end of the value chain. A standout moment for Malaysia’s semiconductor ambitions was the IPO of chip design company Oppstar, which was dramatically oversubscribed by 77 times and saw its stock price soar by 286% on its debut. Tsubasa Suruga, Nikkei Asia, April 12
India's economy can overtake China's if it can stay on track. India's rapid economic growth presents a potential to surpass China's economic output in the coming decades, contingent on maintaining momentum and executing vital reforms. Currently, India grows faster than China and has surpassed economies like the U.K. and France. However, complacency towards reform, especially in trade and domestic policy, could derail this trajectory. China's growth has slowed, with forecasts predicting further deceleration due to aging demographics and urbanization plateaus. In contrast, India benefits from a young, increasingly urban population and rising foreign direct investment due to global shifts away from reliance on China. Successful growth for India hinges on avoiding past mistakes of excessive planning and lack of reform that previously stifled its economic potential. Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Nikkei Asia, April 12
China continues to dominate an expanded BRICS. With the inclusion of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates in 2024, BRICS has expanded its influence but continues to be heavily influenced by China's dominant economic and political stance. Initially formed to emphasize the growing economic significance of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the group now represents a significant portion of global economic output, with China alone being a major contributor. As the group seeks greater representation on the global stage, the diverse economic and political backgrounds of its members pose both challenges and opportunities. BRICS advocates for substantial reforms in global financial institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and the United Nations to better represent developing nations' interests. However, the efficacy and unity of an expanded BRICS are under scrutiny due to internal disparities and varying national agendas, particularly with India’s uneasy position regarding China’s influence within the group. Alicia Garcia-Herrero, East Asia Forum April 12