Asia Daily: April 11, 2024
News
PH, US, Japan summit to produce SCS deal. The Philippines, the United States, and Japan aim to forge an agreement on security and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea at an upcoming summit. This initiative by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his counterparts seeks to enhance regional stability and counteract maritime disputes. The leaders will aim to enhance trilateral cooperation in the contested South China Sea against a backdrop of growing tension in the area. Catherine S. Valente, Kristina Maralit, and Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, April 11
India, China should urgently address 'prolonged situation' on borders, Modi says. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi calls for an urgent resolution to the border tensions with China, aiming for a normalization of bilateral interactions. His comments signal a potential softening in stance towards resolving the disputes that escalated with a deadly clash in 2020, affecting diplomatic relations. Modi emphasizes the importance of peaceful relations not only for both countries but for regional and global stability, amid campaigning for a third term and emphasizing strong foreign policy and internal security. Shilpa Jamkhandikar, Reuters, April 10
DP wins resounding majority in crushing defeat for PPP. The Democratic Party (DP) secured a commanding majority in South Korea's National Assembly in this year’s legislative elections, dealing a significant blow to the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and President Yoon Suk Yeol. With a majority of the directly contested and proportional seats won, the DP's victory reflects widespread public dissatisfaction with the current administration, just two years into Yoon's term. This electoral outcome challenges the PPP's agenda and positions the DP to influence future policy directions. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, April 11
U.S. cross-party lawmakers hail Japan PM visit, strength of alliance. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a resolution emphasizing the vital alliance between the U.S. and Japan, just before discussions between President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. This resolution celebrates the alliance's role in Indo-Pacific stability and Japan's commitment to defense and support for Ukraine. Kishida's visit marks a significant diplomatic engagement, including formal talks, a state dinner, and a historic trilateral summit. Kyodo News, Kyodo News, April 10
Chinese military researchers zero in on AI-driven navy, space combat to ‘win future wars’. Chinese military researchers are focusing on AI-driven naval and space combat technologies as strategic priorities for future warfare. Highlighting President Xi Jinping's calls for innovation, a series of articles in the Study Times emphasizes the critical role of AI in changing warfare rules and the importance of new combat capabilities in electromagnetic, cyberspace, and aerospace domains. Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, April 10
China expanding security footprint in Central Asia. Uzbekistan and China are bolstering their security cooperation following a visit to Tashkent by China's Minister of Public Security, Wang Xiaohong. An agreement signed during the visit enhances collaboration in combating terrorism, extremism, and transnational crime through 2024-25. The partnership includes sharing information technologies and investigative methods, with a focus on combating cybercrime and drug trafficking, and possibly establishing a joint Research Institute of Criminology. Eurasianet, April 10
Kashmir’s apple orchards, millions of jobs, face threat from rail line. In Indian-administered Kashmir, a new railway project threatens the livelihoods of millions dependent on apple farming, the region's economic backbone. The proposed rail lines, intended to enhance connectivity within Kashmir, risk taking over highly fertile lands, sparking protests among local farmers. Concerns also arise over potential ecological impacts and the social and demographic implications of increased connectivity and government intervention. Basit Parray and Arjumand Shaheen, Al Jazeera, April 10
Sustained Inflation in Laos Forces Shift in Employment Patterns, Hits Low-Income Families Hardest: World Bank Reveals. A World Bank report highlights significant shifts in employment patterns and socio-economic impacts in Laos due to prolonged inflation, particularly affecting low-income families. The report notes a move towards agriculture and manufacturing jobs, away from service sectors hit by inflation and currency depreciation. Despite some growth in household income, over 40% of households lag behind inflation, exacerbating financial strains and inequality. Namfon Chanthavong, The Laotian Times, April 10
Prime Minister hosts Vatican foreign minister. Vietnam's Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính recently welcomed Archbishop Paul Richard Gallagher, marking a historic visit aimed at strengthening relations between Vietnam and the Vatican and benefiting the Vietnamese Catholic community. This visit follows the establishment of the Resident Papal Representative in Vietnam, a move that underlines the ongoing efforts to enhance bilateral relations. The discussions included Vietnam's commitment to religious freedom, the progress in Vietnam-Holy See relations, and the anticipation of further high-level engagements, including a potential visit by Pope Francis. Vietnam News, April 10
US policy on China must pivot to cold-war stance from managing competition, two Republican policymakers say. Matthew Pottinger and Mike Gallagher criticize the Biden administration's approach to China, urging a shift from competition management to a cold-war stance. They argue this change is necessary to counteract China's strategies and protect U.S. interests, recommending increased defense spending and strategic military innovations. Their stance reflects growing concerns about US-China relations and the strategic direction of American foreign policy. Robert Delaney, South China Morning Post, April 11
Myanmar junta arrests USDP official for alleged links to online fraud gangs. The Myanmar military regime has detained a high-ranking member of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), Myint Hlaing, due to alleged connections with online fraud operations. This action comes amid pressures from China to curb illegal activities along their shared border, highlighting the wider implications of Myanmar’s situation for its neighbors in the region. Myanmar Now, April 10
Long Form
South Korea’s 2024 General Election: Results and Implications. The 2024 general election in South Korea has resulted in the main opposition Democratic Party securing a majority in the National Assembly. This victory not only reflects the electorate's desire for a counterbalance to the ruling government but also sets the stage for potential challenges to President Yoon Suk Yeol's policy agenda, both domestically and in terms of foreign policy. The high voter turnout shows the public's engagement and concern over key issues such as the economy, rising living costs, and governance. As the Democratic Party takes control, the implications for President Yoon's administration include navigating a more adversarial legislative environment and reassessing strategies to advance its policy goals. This election outcome could also influence South Korea's approach to its foreign relations, particularly with key allies and in its stance toward North Korea, as the new assembly may seek to assert its influence over the country's diplomatic direction. By Victor Cha, Jinwan Park, and Andy Lim in Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), April 10
The Electoral Equation: China's BRI Investments Amid Political Transitions. Amid political shifts in key partner countries, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) confronts both opportunities and challenges. Recent elections in Italy and the Maldives have led to divergent outcomes for BRI projects. The upcoming 2024 elections in Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka further show the political risks associated with major BRI projects in South and Southeast Asia. Indonesia's continued investment under President Joko Widodo and the recent victory of General Prabowo Subianto suggest a stable environment for BRI's expansion. Conversely, the elections' outcomes in Pakistan and Bangladesh could reinvigorate projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and enhance China-Bangladesh cooperation. Sri Lanka's election might dictate the future of controversial BRI projects like the Hambantota port. These developments show how local politics shape China's investment strategy and highlight the need for a more transparent, partner-engaged BRI approach that aligns with host countries' development priorities. By Farwa Aamer and Blake Berger in Asia Society, April 10
What Can Indonesia Expect From Its Anticipated Defense Cooperation Agreement With Australia? Indonesia and Australia are poised to enhance their defense relationship through an anticipated Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA). This agreement, expected to be formalized in the coming months, represents a strategic move for Jakarta to strengthen its domestic defense industry and articulate its stance regarding the AUKUS alliance. Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and his Australian counterpart Richard Marles have expressed intentions to expand defense cooperation, building upon the 2021 Framework for Security Cooperation. The DCA is likely to encompass a wide range of cooperative efforts, including defense policy, maritime security, counter-terrorism, humanitarian assistance, and more, aiming to bolster bilateral relations and regional security. By Yokie Rahmad Isjchwansyah in The Diplomat, April 11
China Reaches out to Russia, North Korea as US Cements Trilateral Partnership With Japan, Philippines. As the United States strengthens its trilateral partnership with Japan and the Philippines through high-profile diplomatic engagements, China is simultaneously enhancing its own alliances, notably with Russia and North Korea. The visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Beijing and the planned trip of China's third-ranking leader to North Korea coincide with key US diplomatic activities, signaling a concerted effort by China to bolster its strategic ties in response to US moves. These developments reflect the deepening geopolitical rivalries and alignments in the region, with China seeking to counterbalance US influence through its relationships with Russia and North Korea. By Shannon Tiezzi in The Diplomat, April 11
Xi Jinping's Latest Purge Hints Property Crisis Has Reached Inner Circle. The Chinese Communist Party's recent investigation of former Justice Minister Tang Yijun for "serious disciplinary violations" signals a deepening of Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign into his own political faction. Tang, once a prominent figure within Xi's Zhejiang faction, is suspected of having connections to the beleaguered China Evergrande Group, central to China's ongoing property crisis. This shows the effects of Evergrande elevating all the way up into high-level poltics. By Katsuji Nakazawa in Nikkei Asia, April 11
Time is ripe for Malaysia to move upstream into designing chips. The global semiconductor competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, has positioned Malaysia, especially Penang, to leverage its success in semiconductor manufacturing into the higher-value realms of chip design. Penang's established prowess in downstream semiconductor production offers a strong foundation for Malaysia to expand into the design and development segments of the semiconductor industry. This move would not only elevate Malaysia's role in the global semiconductor supply chain but also contribute to diversifying its economy and enhancing its technological capabilities. By W.C. Koh, M.M. Hinojales, and H. Zhao in Nikkei Asia, April 11