Asia Daily: April 10, 2024

News

Chinese President Xi meets former Taiwan leader Ma Ying-jeou on pro-unification visit. President Xi Jinping's meeting with former President Ma Ying-jeou in Beijing marks a notable attempt to promote unification between China and Taiwan, a relationship strained since civil war in 1949. Ma's visit, characterized by dialogue on cross-strait peace and unity, aligns with the Beijing-friendly sentiment of the Kuomintang party. This sentiment is not shared by Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party. AP News, April 9

Marcos: PH will stand against oppressors. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. affirmed the Philippines' stance against oppression and threats to sovereignty during the Araw ng Kagitingan rites in Bataan. He invoked the spirit of forebearers who fought for freedom, emphasizing the nation's resolve to protect its rights and people against any form of aggression. This declaration comes amidst increasing regional tensions, highlighting the government's commitment to national security and independence. The Manila Times, April 10

Voters hit polls in parliamentary elections. South Korea's parliamentary elections are underway, potentially impacting President Yoon Suk Yeol's ability to advance his legislative agenda. The elections, featuring a high early voter turnout, pit the ruling People Power Party against the main opposition Democratic Party, with control of the National Assembly at stake. The outcomes could influence the Yoon administration's reform initiatives and address public concerns over governance. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, April 9

Expect more joint South China Sea patrols, US says ahead of summits with allies. Following recent naval drills by the United States, Australia, the Philippines, and Japan, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan anticipates increased joint patrols in the South China Sea. This comes as the U.S. prepares for summits with Japanese and Philippine leaders to discuss countering China's regional influence. The discussions will also explore enhancing defense, security cooperation, and space exploration. Steve Holland and David Brunnstrom, Reuters, April 9

Economic committees of Vietnamese, Chinese legislatures exchange information, experience. The economic committees of Vietnam and China have engaged in a crucial dialogue to enhance bilateral economic cooperation, focusing on macro policies and the development of free trade zones. This meeting, part of ongoing diplomatic efforts, seeks to deepen mutual understanding and implement shared goals outlined in recent joint declarations. The discussions covered significant socio-economic achievements and future collaboration prospects, including investment incentives and the development of international financial centers. Vietnam News, April 9

Mongolia and Australia Agree to Finalize the Draft of the Comprehensive Partnership. Mongolia and Australia plan to finalize the Comprehensive Partnership draft soon, enhancing bilateral relations. This decision follows productive discussions on mutual interests and marks a milestone in the 50-year diplomatic relationship between the two countries. The partnership aims to boost cooperation in various sectors, a significant step in Mongolia's diplomatic engagement and regional strategy. Самбууням.М, Montsame, April 9

China vows to protest ‘every single incident’ of mistreatment of Chinese arrivals in US. The Chinese embassy in the U.S. condemns the repeated mistreatment of Chinese citizens at American borders, pledging to contest each case. Nearly 300 Chinese, including students with valid documents, have been sent back since July 2021. Recent incidents have raised concerns about ideological biases influencing U.S. border enforcement actions. This issue has become a focal point in China-U.S. relations, prompting calls for improved treatment to support bilateral exchanges. Orange Wang, South China Morning Post, April 9

Finance ministry projects 5.68 percent growth this year. Bhutan's economy is expected to grow by 5.68 percent this year, buoyed by the anticipated commissioning of mega hydropower projects and increased government spending. The growth forecast for 2025 is even more optimistic at 8.97 percent. Hydropower, a significant contributor to Bhutan's exports and domestic revenue, is central to this positive outlook, with major projects like Nikachhu and Puna-II set to boost energy sales. Thukten Zangpo, Kuensel, April 9

Indictment decision on Thaksin's lese majeste case postponed. The Attorney-General of Thailand has delayed the indictment decision for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on lese majeste charges until May 29. This postponement allows for further police interrogation, following Thaksin's request for fair treatment. Thaksin, who was paroled in February, faces charges related to comments made in 2015, deemed defamatory to the monarchy. This case continues an ongoing dialogue surrounding Thailand's strict lese majeste laws. Bangkok Post, April 10

U.S. cross-party lawmakers hail Japan PM visit, strength of alliance. Ahead of discussions between President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, U.S. senators from both parties have expressed strong support for the Japan-U.S. alliance, emphasizing its role in Indo-Pacific stability. The resolution introduced acknowledges Japan's defense efforts and its support for Ukraine, reflecting the deep strategic alignment between the nations. Kishida's visit is the first by a sitting Japanese PM in nearly a decade. Kyodo News, April 10

Long Form

India’s Long Road to Net-Zero. India's journey towards achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2070, a commitment made at COP26, is fraught with challenges, including dependence on domestic policies, need for financial support and technology transfer from developed countries, and the pursuit of alternative energy sources. Despite ambitious updates to its Paris Agreement commitments, including a reduction in emissions intensity and an increase in non-fossil fuel electricity generation, India's path is hindered by its heavy reliance on coal, constituting 75% of its energy needs. Efforts to transition away from coal are complicated by the nation's growing energy demands and the ambitious goal of establishing 500 gigawatts of clean energy capacity by 2030 seems increasingly difficult to achieve at the current installation pace of solar and wind power. Financing remains a critical obstacle, with international aid dwindling and India's green transition requiring significant investments. The development of nuclear energy and green hydrogen production are viewed as potential avenues to support India's net-zero ambitions, but these too depend on substantial investment and technological advancements. By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza in The Diplomat, April 9

The Demographic Costs of a War Over Taiwan. The potential for conflict over Taiwan brings not only geopolitical risks but also significant demographic consequences, especially for China, where the population is already in decline. An analysis by Bloomberg Economics highlights the global economic impact of a war over Taiwan, estimated at $10 trillion, surpassing the financial damage caused by the Ukraine conflict or the COVID-19 pandemic. Beyond economic considerations, the demographic repercussions of such a conflict could be devastating for China, emphasizing the need for China to fully consider the broader implications of any military action toward Taiwan. By Fuxian Yi in The Diplomat, April 10

Kishida: Japan ready to step up as U.S. 'global partner' at Biden summit. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is gearing up for a significant state visit to the U.S., marking the first such visit in nine years, with plans to address a joint session of the U.S. Congress. Amid low approval ratings at home due to political scandals, Kishida is focused on showcasing Japan's readiness to deepen defense and economic ties with the U.S., reinforcing the bilateral alliance. This visit comes at a time when geopolitical tensions highlight the necessity of strengthening partnerships. With a record defense budget and Japan's move towards enhancing its defense capabilities, including the acquisition of U.S. Tomahawk missiles, Kishida aims to assert Japan's position as a "global partner" in maintaining a rules-based international order. However, the upcoming U.S. presidential election, featuring Biden and Trump, looms large, introducing uncertainties about the future of U.S.-Japan relations and their shared security commitments. By Ken Moriyasu and Mitsuru Obe in Nikkei Asia, April 10

India-U.S.-South Korea tech cooperation has strategic logic. The collaboration among the U.S., South Korea, and India in the technology sector is gaining momentum, grounded in a strategic logic that aims to bolster supply chains and mitigate vulnerabilities to trade coercion and supply chain disruptions. Each nation brings unique strengths to this partnership: the U.S. with its technological innovation and leadership, South Korea with its advanced manufacturing capabilities, particularly in semiconductors, and India with its vast market and burgeoning tech talent pool. By capitalizing on these competitive advantages, the trio aims to create a more resilient and diversified global supply chain framework. By Saurabh Todi in Nikkei Asia, April 10

Japan’s export controls require reassessment. Japan's existing export control frameworks are being challenged by rapid technological advancements and the shifting geopolitical landscape. As civilian technologies increasingly hold dual-use potential for both economic development and military modernization, particularly highlighted by China's military-civil fusion strategy, Japan is pressed to reassess and strengthen its export control policies. The Wassenaar Arrangement (WA), while instrumental in controlling the proliferation of weapons and dual-use technologies, struggles with swift technological changes and the consensus-based decision-making process, which can delay the inclusion of emerging technologies in control lists. Moreover, the rise of non-participating states like China in critical technology sectors further complicates enforcement and poses security risks. In response, Japan, alongside Western allies, has begun to implement unilateral export controls on sensitive technologies, a step towards a more flexible and responsive export control regime. This approach, however, necessitates a reevaluation of Japan's domestic laws and a push towards better coordination and intelligence-sharing among like-minded countries to effectively address the challenges of technological competition and national security without stifling economic growth. By Ayaka Hiraki in East Asia Forum, April 10

Taking stock of US-Japan energy diplomacy. Ahead of the Biden-Kishida talks, the strengthening US-Japan energy partnership shows a shared commitment to addressing climate change and bolstering clean energy in the Indo-Pacific region. Various initiatives, including the US-Japan Competitiveness and Resilience Partnership and the Japan-US Clean Energy Partnership, aim to advance decarbonization and promote energy security. However, the US has voiced concerns about Japan's energy strategies, notably its continued reliance on coal and the use of ammonia and hydrogen co-firing.

Power Japan

, April 9

---