China

Chipmaker CXMT vaults to top of China’s valuation with 466% surge in Shanghai debut. CXMT shares rose 466% on their first trading day after the company raised $8.6 billion in Asia’s largest IPO of the year. The rally lifted its market capitalization to 3.3 trillion yuan, making it China’s most valuable listed company. Investors welcomed exposure to the memory-chip boom, though analysts warned that the valuation appeared speculative and vulnerable to industry cycles and U.S. export controls. Yantoultra Ngui and Samuel Shen, Reuters, July 26

Brazil turns to China trade deal after Trump’s tariffs, as years of resistance end. Xi Jinping and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva agreed to accelerate negotiations for a China-Mercosur trade agreement, reversing Brazil’s longstanding resistance to opening the bloc’s market to Beijing. The shift followed new U.S. tariffs and Lula’s commitment to diversify commercial partners. The leaders also discussed cooperation in artificial intelligence, satellites, critical-minerals processing, and fertilizer trade, and announced a short-stay visa waiver arrangement. Igor Patrick, South China Morning Post, July 27

U.S. congressional group plans annual visits to China after trade trip. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission pledged to seek annual visits to China after completing its first fact-finding mission there since 2019. Commissioners met diplomats, Chinese officials, think tanks, and business representatives in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou to discuss technology, biotechnology, economic security, and regional affairs. Some requested meetings with Chinese technology companies did not occur, but the Chinese Embassy welcomed renewed engagement. Han Li, South China Morning Post, July 27

Japan

GSDF officer indicted over Chinese Embassy trespass, threats. Japanese prosecutors indicted Ground Self-Defense Force officer Kodai Murata for entering the Chinese Embassy compound in Tokyo with an 18-centimeter kitchen knife and threatening staff. Murata underwent a three-month psychiatric evaluation before prosecutors concluded he could be held responsible. Police said he wanted to convey his views to the ambassador and had planned to kill himself if rebuffed. Kyodo News, July 27

PM stands firm on LDP-JIP ties and notes public concern over foreign influx. Sanae Takaichi said trust between the Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Japan Innovation Party remains unwavering despite friction over a shelved seat-reduction bill. She declined to address the possibility of cooperating with the Democratic Party for the People but stressed that stable politics is necessary to advance economic, diplomatic, and security policies. She also acknowledged public concern about the influx of foreign nationals. Kanako Takahara, The Japan Times, July 27

Japan’s Takaichi defends policy as underpinning yen, approval rating slumps. Sanae Takaichi said stronger growth and competitiveness would restore market confidence in the yen, while emphasizing that the Bank of Japan controls monetary policy but must coordinate with the government. Her administration’s approval rating fell to 57%, with 71% disapproving of measures against rising living costs. A weak yen, higher bond yields, uncertainty over a promised food-tax suspension, and concerns about government spending have increased political and market pressure. Leika Kihara, Reuters, July 27

South Korea

South Korea court gives ex-President Yoon suspended jail term for violating election law. A Seoul court sentenced Yoon Suk Yeol to 18 months in prison, suspended for three years, after finding that he made false statements during his 2022 presidential campaign. If upheld, the ruling could require the People Power Party to repay 39.7 billion won in reimbursed election expenses. Yoon denied wrongdoing and plans to appeal. Kyu-seok Shim, Reuters, July 27

PPP launches disciplinary process for 3 lawmakers. The People Power Party opened disciplinary proceedings against Cho Kyoung-tae, Jin Jong-oh, and Kwon Young-jin over separate allegations of conduct harmful to the party. Cho allegedly opposed a party candidate for deputy parliamentary speaker, Jin supported an independent candidate despite the PPP fielding its own, and Kwon reportedly assaulted the floor leader during a dispute over committee assignments. Possible penalties range from a warning to expulsion. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, July 27

Lee vows to create diplomatic conditions to resume inter-Korean, N.K.-U.S. dialogue. Lee Jae Myung pledged to pursue conditions enabling renewed talks between the Koreas and between North Korea and the United States. Seoul will continue promoting dialogue and cooperation despite limited progress, working closely with Washington and the international community. Lee said resumed engagement should lead to normalized inter-Korean relations, phased denuclearization, and permanent peace, while requesting Brazil’s continued support. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 27

Brazil, South Korea agree to advance talks for Mercosur trade deal. Brazil and South Korea agreed to create a working group to accelerate negotiations on a trade agreement between Seoul and Mercosur. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is seeking broader commercial partnerships as U.S. tariffs affect Brazil, while Lee Jae Myung described the potential deal as urgent. The leaders also agreed to expand cooperation on critical minerals, and Brazil will receive a South Korean mission to evaluate meatpacking facilities for sanitary approval. Lisandra Paraguassu and Gabriel Araujo, Reuters, July 27

North Korea

U.S. removes sanctions on 84 targets, including N.K. firm, in “modernization” effort. The U.S. Treasury removed 84 individuals and entities from its sanctions list because they were deceased, defunct, outdated, or no longer considered policy priorities. The list included Korea Tangun Trading Corp., sanctioned by Washington and the UN Security Council in 2009 for supporting North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Treasury said the removals were part of an effort to keep sanctions targeted, effective, and aligned with U.S. economic, foreign-policy, and national-security objectives. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, July 27

Thailand

PP blasts civil service reform plan. People’s Party deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakun criticized Thailand’s proposed early-retirement program for civil servants, saying the government should first determine which agencies and functions should be merged or abolished. She warned that voluntary departures could remove capable officials without substantially reducing the bureaucracy. The compensation, capped at 12 months’ salary, may not attract the targeted 4,000 to 5,000 participants, particularly workers too young for pensions. Sirikanya urged a comprehensive six- to 12-month review before implementation. Bangkok Post, July 27

PM rejects Senate vote claim. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul denied that he or Bhumjaithai members participated in alleged manipulation of Thailand’s 2024 Senate election and rejected suggestions that the accusations threaten coalition stability. He said he had instructed party members before the vote not to become involved in the selection process. Anutin dismissed claims linking his visits to the Pullman Bangkok King Power Hotel with election activities and confirmed plans for legal action against iLaw director Yingcheep Atchanont. Other named party figures also denied wrongdoing. Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, July 27

Myanmar

Myanmar military escalates civilian killings, monitor warns, amid diplomatic push. ACLED said Myanmar’s military intensified aerial attacks and civilian repression after a March command restructuring under new military chief Ye Win Oo. The monitor recorded more than a dozen mass killings and over 450 civilian deaths in the first half of 2026. The escalation has continued as Min Aung Hlaing seeks greater regional legitimacy through visits to neighboring countries and tentative engagement with ASEAN. Reuters, July 27

Hundreds of Myanmar migrants flee Chinese crackdown in Yunnan. Around 400 undocumented Myanmar workers in Jinghong reportedly hid in forests to avoid arrest during a Chinese police crackdown. Migrants alleged that detainees were transferred through the National Democratic Alliance Army to Myanmar’s military and risked forced conscription. More than 500 workers were reportedly arrested and deported on July 19, while others abandoned unpaid wages and returned home. The workers face broker fees, exploitation, fines, entry bans, and limited legal protection while seeking higher-paying jobs in Chinese border industries. The Irrawaddy, July 27

Philippines

Philippines’ Marcos puts anti-graft campaign at centre of address to Congress. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. vowed to continue an anti-corruption drive that could produce charges against his cousin, former House Speaker Martin Romualdez, over alleged irregularities in flood-control projects. Marcos also urged Congress to approve tax relief for workers and small businesses as living costs rise. Addressing South China Sea tensions, he cited the 2016 arbitral ruling and declared that Filipinos would not yield or abandon their position. Mikhail Flores and Nestor Corrales, Reuters, July 27

PH, Japan defense pact takes effect in August. The Philippines and Japan exchanged diplomatic notes enabling their Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement to enter into force on August 22. The pact establishes procedures for reciprocal supplies and services between Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Signed in Manila in January, the agreement is intended to strengthen bilateral defense cooperation and support regional peace and security. Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, July 27

84% unhappy with flood control scam response. Only 10.4% of Filipinos surveyed said the Marcos administration had done enough to address alleged irregularities in flood-control projects. Another 43% said government action was insufficient, while 41.2% said nothing had been done. Dissatisfaction crossed political affiliations and was highest in Mindanao, where 61% said no genuine accountability measures had been taken. The nationwide survey covered 1,438 respondents and carried a ±2.6 percentage-point margin of error. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, July 27

Second regular session of 20th Congress opens. The Philippine Senate and House opened their second regular session with the 2027 budget and priority legislation at the forefront. Senate President Sherwin Gatchalian pledged measures to lower living costs, increase take-home pay, reduce electricity and fuel prices, expand infrastructure, and create jobs. Proposed bills cover rice supply, worker tax relief, energy regulation, petroleum pricing, long-term infrastructure planning, and support for small businesses. Catherine S. Valente, Javier Joe Ismael, and Reina C. Tolentino, The Manila Times, July 27

Indonesia

Indonesia’s Prabowo approval rating drops to 51.1%, survey finds. Prabowo Subianto’s approval rating fell from 81.2% in November 2025 to 51.1% in July, with worsening perceptions of the economy driving the decline. Nearly half of respondents rated economic conditions as bad or very bad, while dissatisfaction also rose over politics and law enforcement. The poll surveyed 749 people and had a 3.7% margin of error. Dewi Kurniawati, Reuters, July 27

Indonesia faces test of central bank independence after governor’s shock exit. Perry Warjiyo resigned as Bank Indonesia governor before his term ended, reviving concerns about political influence over monetary policy and the institution’s independence. Senior deputy governor Destry Damayanti became interim chief while markets awaited Prabowo Subianto’s nominee. The rupiah weakened near record lows, and investors warned that an unsuitable successor could deepen doubts about policy credibility, fiscal discipline, and whether the central bank will prioritize economic growth over currency stability. Ankur Banerjee, Rae Wee, and Gayatri Suroyo, Reuters, July 27

Taiwan

Concerns over Chinese sea operations raised with Beijing, Taiwan says. Taiwan conveyed concern to Beijing through third countries and private channels over Chinese coast guard, government, and research vessels operating east of Taiwan. Officials said some ships entered Taiwan’s exclusive economic zone, asserted law-enforcement authority, and conducted surveys without consent. Taipei is seeking to avoid escalation beyond 24 nautical miles while defending sovereignty closer to shore, strengthening surveillance, and expanding drone use. Sunny Lai, Focus Taiwan, July 27

Singapore

Singapore, Australia commit to unrestricted flow of essential goods, defence supplies. Singapore and Australia signed agreements protecting access to essential energy products and strengthening defence supply chains. A binding trade protocol discourages export restrictions on diesel and liquefied natural gas while establishing advance notification, consultation, and review procedures. A separate defence arrangement supports cross-sustainment of shared platforms, priority delivery requests, streamlined equipment transfers, industry partnerships, and information exchanges. Samuel Devaraj, The Straits Times, July 27

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How Asia Learned to Live With “America First”. Asian allies have adapted to President Donald Trump’s transactional foreign policy by accepting unequal economic deals in exchange for security guarantees and access to American technology. Their exposure to Chinese power makes United States protection vital. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have offered major investments and purchases to preserve ties with Washington. Western Europe has resisted this hierarchy, pursued greater autonomy, and defended multilateral norms, but weak defenses limit leverage. John Lee, Foreign Affairs, July 27

East Asia

Xi Jinping, pioneering venture capitalist. China’s government gained a large paper profit from CXMT’s market debut after years of state investment in strategic technology. The chipmaker’s rise showcases the Hefei model, which makes the state an early equity partner in selected firms. Yet guidance funds face failed bets, corruption risks, weak exit options, and limited private buyers. CXMT’s success supports industrial self-reliance, but its return may prove difficult to reproduce across China’s state-backed portfolio system. The Economist, July 27

The hidden divide: Why China’s vice-ministers rarely reach the top. China’s ministerial system separates ministers from vice-ministers into separate cohorts with distinct functions. Full ministers are older, hold longer tenures, and possess provincial or local governing experience. Vice-ministers are younger, rotate through posts, and include many technical specialists and career administrators. The deputy tier functions as a proving ground, while the ministerial apex favors generalists. Women and ethnic minorities remain concentrated at deputy rank, revealing diversity at the top. Li Cheng and Ren Xinyuan, ThinkChina, July 27

Subsidies Do Not Explain China’s Competitiveness. China’s industrial competitiveness cannot be reduced to state subsidies. OECD estimates may misclassify commercial loans as government support, while subsidy intensity among new economy firms fell as their gains expanded. Dense supply chains, market scale, fierce competition, engineering talent, and integrated production systems drive innovation and commercialization. China’s current account surplus stems in part from weak investment after the property downturn. Structural capabilities explain firm performance beyond subsidy centered narratives. Kai Guo, CHINA US Focus, July 27

Xi addresses China and the world in rare public speech on AI. Xi Jinping used his World AI Conference debut to outline a vision of collaboration between humans and machine intelligence. He stressed integration, connectivity, embodied AI, and human control as foundations for growth and social welfare. His first public warning about AI loss of control suggests concern over unpredictable systems and design flaws. The speech may signal more safety research, tighter industry regulation, or restrictions on access to Chinese open-source models. Rebecca Arcesati, MERICS, July 27

Revealing Approaches at AI Conference. The Shanghai World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcased AI applications in manufacturing, public services, culture, and logistics while framing competition as a contest across industrial value chains. China holds strengths in deployment and manufacturing, while the United States leads in large models, chips, cloud infrastructure, and software. Participants stressed open innovation, targeted risk governance, Global South capacity building, and cooperation to prevent high-risk uses from deepening geopolitical conflict or technological dependence. Li Yan, CHINA US Focus, July 27

Is China’s Surplus Really Shrinking? China’s trade surplus remains on an upward path after removing a surge in gold imports from headline data. Gold purchases reached $146 billion during the first half of 2026, masking growth in the goods balance. Manufacturing exports, led by automobiles, kept rising while imports stayed flat. Chip price increases affected both imports and exports, but gold drove the distortion. Excluding gold and chips, the manufacturing surplus retained strong expansion momentum. Brad W. Setser, Council on Foreign Relations, July 27

China’s mightiest river is coming back from the brink. China’s Yangtze River is recovering after decades of pollution, overfishing, dam construction, and habitat loss. A fishing ban, factory closures, reforestation, urban wetlands, and strict enforcement have increased fish biomass and finless porpoise numbers. The campaign shows the state’s capacity to mobilize resources for conservation. Yet displaced fishers report weak compensation and lost livelihoods while continued dam building threatens migration routes, spawning grounds, and further ecological recovery across the basin. The Economist, July 27

China Now Outranks the United States in Global Favorability. What Happened? China surpassed the United States in favorability across countries surveyed by Pew, with declining American soft power driving the shift beyond gains in Chinese appeal. Beijing gained support through cultural products, industrial achievements, development initiatives, and outreach to the Global South. Washington lost trust through tariffs, aid cuts, policy volatility, and strained alliances. China’s advantage remains uneven, weaker near its borders, and vulnerable because concerns about freedom and credibility persist. Yanzhong Huang, Council on Foreign Relations, July 27

Come Hague or High Seas: China’s Environmental Legacy in the South China Sea. China’s bid to host the High Seas Treaty secretariat conflicts with its record of marine damage in the South China Sea. Island building and giant clam harvesting have destroyed an estimated 22,759 acres of coral reef. Beijing rejects the 2016 tribunal ruling while invoking UNCLOS to support ocean governance ambitions. This selective approach raises doubts about China’s credibility and the risks of granting it leadership over global biodiversity protection efforts. Monica Sato, CSIS, July 27

Taiwan's pivot away from China offers a lesson for democracies. Taiwan reduced economic exposure to China by redirecting trade and investment toward the United States and other democratic partners. The shift began after the Sunflower Movement and expanded under Tsai Ing-wen, whose policies linked economic resilience with national security. Taiwan retains trade with China but has cut investment in China, strengthened its role in technology supply chains, attracted American demand, and tied its security to dependence with Washington for protection. Chris Horton, Nikkei Asia, July 27

Southeast Asia

Quietly, not Silently: How Vietnam Deals with China on the South China Sea. Vietnam balances resistance to Chinese maritime claims with economic dependence and a policy of avoiding alliances or collective pressure. Hanoi limits public criticism, confronts Chinese vessels, strengthens legal claims under UNCLOS, expands facilities in the Spratlys, and deepens defense ties with the United States, Japan, India, and the Philippines. This calibrated strategy protects development goals and diplomatic flexibility while building legal, military, and physical capacity against pressure in disputed waters. Huynh Trung Dung, FULCRUM, July 27

South Asia

China’s new decrees manufacture an opening for India. China’s new supply chain decrees may raise costs, delays, and compliance burdens for companies shifting production to India. The measures exploit Chinese dominance in machinery, components, rare earths, and processing technology. India can benefit from China Plus One strategies by expanding domestic capability, supplier networks, critical mineral access, and industrial depth. Success requires competitive logistics, regulatory certainty, technological partnerships, investment safeguards, and reduced reliance on Chinese inputs across manufacturing sectors. Aparna Divya, East Asia Forum, July 27

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China

China holds air, navy patrol in South China Sea. China said it conducted a routine naval and air patrol in the South China Sea while accusing the Philippines of organizing joint patrols with foreign countries that undermined regional peace and stability. The Southern Theatre Command said it would defend China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights. Beijing maintains claims over nearly the entire South China Sea and rejects the 2016 arbitral ruling invalidating those claims. Farah Master, Reuters, July 26

Amid Hormuz woes, China tests Central Asian land corridors to bypass maritime chokepoints. Beijing is expanding overland trade routes through Central Asia as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz expose shipping vulnerabilities. A new China-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Afghanistan corridor cuts delivery times to Herat but remains limited by security, customs, infrastructure, and capacity constraints. Analysts said the route can support containerized regional trade but cannot solve China’s energy exposure because it does not move large oil or gas volumes. Shi Jiangtao, South China Morning Post, July 24

Chinese tech firms’ “snub” to U.S. Congress advisers highlights Beijing’s growing AI caution. Major Chinese technology companies declined to meet a visiting U.S. congressional advisory delegation, reflecting Beijing’s increasingly selective approach to AI diplomacy. Analysts said China views the commission as a policy actor tied to restrictions rather than a neutral fact-finding body. The episode highlights narrowing channels for direct U.S.-China technology engagement, even as both governments prepare for possible AI security talks and continue leader-level dialogue. Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, July 26

Japan

U.S., Japan join Philippines in South China Sea drills. The U.S. and Japan joined Philippine maritime exercises in the South China Sea from July 21 to 25 as Manila and Beijing traded accusations over recent encounters. The drills involved warships, coast guard vessels, surveillance aircraft, and fighter aircraft to improve interoperability. The exercises followed a confrontation at Second Thomas Shoal and overlapped with Philippine reports of Chinese water cannon use near Scarborough Shoal. Nestor Corrales, Reuters, July 26

Japan seeks to establish greater cooperation with Solomon Islands. Sanae Takaichi met Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale in Tokyo after Wale shifted his country away from a pro-China stance. The two leaders agreed to promote development cooperation, including 3 billion yen in loans, and people-to-people exchanges. Japan sees Pacific island nations as important to its free and open Indo-Pacific policy, while Wale has reviewed the Solomons’ security pact with China and protested Beijing’s Pacific missile test. Yuta Ogi and Eishiro Takeishi, The Asahi Shimbun, July 24

Japan dips toe into diplomatic waters with China, Russia. Toshimitsu Motegi briefly spoke with Wang Yi and Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of ASEAN meetings in Manila, marking limited contact amid strained ties with China and Russia. Beijing denied a planned meeting with Japan, while Motegi said dialogue with China remains important for regional peace. Tokyo is also cautiously maintaining communication with Moscow on practical issues, including Japanese assets, Sakhalin energy, fisheries, and exchanges, while keeping sanctions and support for Ukraine unchanged. Ryohei Miyawaki, Yuta Ogi, Takashi Ogawa, and Yohei Kobayakawa, The Asahi Shimbun, July 24

PM Takaichi’s Cabinet support rate dips to 53.7%, lowest since launch. Sanae Takaichi’s Cabinet approval rating fell to 53.7%, its lowest since she took office, according to a Kyodo News poll. The decline followed passage of key bills on imperial succession, a second capital, and penalties for desecrating the national flag. Most respondents supported female emperors, nearly half said the imperial revision lacked public understanding, and 66.9% said the second-capital bill did not receive sufficient parliamentary debate. Kyodo News, July 26

South Korea

Lee orders retention of oil price caps until price uncertainty completely recedes. Lee Jae Myung instructed officials to keep oil price caps and related measures, including oil tax cuts, in place until global price uncertainty fully eases. Speaking virtually from Brasilia, he cited renewed Middle East conflict and oil prices near US$100 per barrel, urging preemptive action to limit pressure on domestic prices. He also called for further measures if conditions worsen and tighter scrutiny of market cornering or price-fixing involving essential goods. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 27

Court set to rule on ex-President Yoon’s election law violation case. A Seoul court was set to rule on charges that Yoon Suk Yeol made false statements as the People Power Party’s 2022 presidential candidate. A conviction carrying more than 1 million won in fines or imprisonment would require the party to return 39.7 billion won in reimbursed election expenses. Special counsel Min Joong-ki sought a two-year prison term, while Yoon faces multiple trials tied to his failed 2024 martial law bid. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, July 26

$950 bil. chip partnerships reinforce Korea’s place in global AI supply chain. South Korean chipmakers and technology firms announced $950 billion in partnerships with global AI companies during Lee Jae Myung’s San Francisco visit. Samsung signed a $200 billion memorandum with Broadcom covering memory, foundry manufacturing, and advanced packaging, while SK Group agreed to $750 billion in long-term semiconductor supply deals, including more than $500 billion with Nvidia. Lee presented South Korea as a global AI test bed, production platform, and trusted supply chain partner. Yi Whan-woo, The Korea Times, July 26

North Korea

Russia preparing to receive another 30,000 N. Korean troops for Ukraine war: Zelenskyy. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia has prepared since June to receive 30,000 additional North Korean troops in the Voronezh region, while Pyongyang plans to supply more ballistic missile launchers. He warned that Russia is helping North Korea gain combat experience and improve its weapons, creating wider risks for Asia. North Korea is believed to have already sent about 20,000 troops and military engineers to Russia’s Kursk region. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, July 25

N. Korea skips ASEAN security forum for 2nd consecutive year. North Korea again declined to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum, reflecting its growing preference for bilateral diplomacy with Russia and China over multilateral engagement. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun urged Pyongyang to resume dialogue and support peace on the Korean Peninsula. Participants raised concerns about North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, called for denuclearization, and emphasized compliance with UN Security Council resolutions. Oh Seok-min, Yonhap News Agency, July 23

Vietnam

Vietnam proposes banning under-16s from posting on social media. Vietnam proposed rules that would bar users under 16 from posting, commenting, or reacting on social media. Child accounts would need to be registered through a parent or guardian, while platforms would have to verify ages, provide stronger privacy protections, and block harmful content involving violence, pornography, gambling, drugs, and suicide. The draft also proposes online gaming limits, including a 60-minute daily cap for under-16 users on games from the same company. Khanh Vu, Reuters, July 24

Thailand

Witnesses lift lid on Senate vote claims. Opposition figures presented witness testimony alleging coordinated manipulation of Thailand’s 2024 Senate election through candidate recruitment, prescribed voting lists, identification methods, resignation letters, and promised payments or seats. People’s Party MP Parit Wacharasindhu questioned whether election and investigative agencies were acting impartially and warned the case might never reach court. Bhumjaithai denied involvement, while the allegations remain untested and the Election Commission has not ruled on the complaints. Bangkok Post, July 26

PP raises concerns over budget. People’s Party deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakun questioned excessive and overlapping requests in Thailand’s proposed 2027 budget, particularly separate cloud-system spending despite plans for a centralized government platform. She also cited allegedly overpriced equipment for a disability department data center and urged scrutiny of a six-billion-baht solar groundwater project for bid-rigging risks. Budget subcommittees will review individual items and recommend reductions where necessary. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, July 24

Philippines

House targets passage of priority bills. The Philippine House of Representatives will prioritize the remaining 26 of 52 administration-backed measures during the second regular session. Pending proposals include amendments to universal health care, the Coconut Farmers and Industry Trust Fund Act, support for micro, small and medium enterprises, bank secrecy rules, and anti-money-laundering legislation. The House has already acted on 26 measures, including one enacted law, while Speaker Faustino Dy III urged the Senate to help pass more bills before year-end. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, July 26

Castro to Baste: Marcos had no hand in Duterte arrest. Claire Castro rejected Davao City Mayor Baste Duterte’s allegation that Ferdinand Marcos Jr. caused Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest and transfer to The Hague. She said the ICC case arose from complaints by alleged victims of the former president’s drug war and was executed with Interpol assistance. Castro argued that responsibility rests with Duterte’s own actions and statements, not Marcos, and cited claims that police operations under Duterte involved organized wrongdoing and rewards for killings. Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, July 26

Indonesia

Indonesia pushes EU to fast-track landmark trade deal. Indonesia urged the European Union to accelerate approval of the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement and its accompanying investment accord. Officials aim for ratification in the second half of 2026 and implementation in early 2027. The agreements would remove EU duties on 98.5% of tariff lines, simplify export procedures, and expand investment opportunities in electric vehicles, electronics, and pharmaceuticals. Jakarta also sought stronger cooperation on renewable energy, sustainable investment, multilateralism, and diplomatic conflict resolution. ANTARA News, July 26

Malaysia

Malaysia envoy summoned by U.S. over Israel policy, Bernama says. Malaysia’s ambassador to the U.S. was summoned by the State Department to explain Kuala Lumpur’s Israel policy after authorities acted against an Israeli national who entered using a U.S. passport. Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan said Malaysia’s refusal to recognize Israel is longstanding and unchanged. The dispute followed scrutiny of Network School and a congressional letter urging Washington to review ties and consider cutting military education funding unless Malaysia reverses its position. Ashley Tang, Reuters, July 24

Malaysia’s action against Israelis consistent with policy - Mohamed Khaled. Malaysia’s decision to expel Israeli nationals follows its longstanding policy of not recognizing Israel, Defence Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin said. He said Malaysia does not allow Israelis to enter the country and that the action has not affected International Military Education and Training funding. U.S. lawmakers had urged Washington to review ties with Malaysia after action against an Israeli national who allegedly entered using a second-country passport. BERNAMA, July 25

Taiwan

Taiwan central bank says it has good communications with U.S. Treasury after currency report. Taiwan’s central bank emphasized open communication with the U.S. Treasury after Washington placed Taiwan on its currency monitoring list with nine other economies. The bank said both sides will continue discussing macroeconomic and exchange-rate issues. It cited strong U.S. demand for Taiwanese technology products, rising foreign direct investment outflows, and a November 2025 joint statement committing Taiwan to disclose foreign exchange intervention data at least quarterly. Faith Hung, Reuters, July 24

KMT rallies candidates ahead of 2026 local elections. Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun led candidates from 19 cities and counties at the party’s national convention ahead of Taiwan’s November local elections. The KMT is supporting Taiwan People’s Party candidates in Hsinchu and Chiayi rather than fielding its own. Cheng called for party teamwork and said the KMT should become the “TSMC of Taiwan’s politics,” while former chairman Wu Poh-hsiung urged unity and preparation for a return to the presidency in 2028. Wang Cheng-chung, Liu Kuan-ting, and Shih Hsiu-chuan, Focus Taiwan, July 25

Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s President Shahabuddin, 76, resigns citing health concerns. Bangladesh President Mohammed Shahabuddin resigned, citing autonomic neuropathy and occasional loss of consciousness. Shahabuddin, a former ally of Sheikh Hasina, had held the largely ceremonial presidency since April 2023. His resignation leaves Hasina without allies in high office ahead of her planned return. The speaker of parliament will serve as acting president until a successor is elected. Ruma Paul, Reuters, July 24

Kazakhstan

Speaking alongside Putin, Kazakh president calls for freeze of Ukraine war. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said Russia and Ukraine might reach peace by freezing the conflict and returning to negotiations under an “Istanbul formula 2.0.” Speaking beside Vladimir Putin in Omsk, Tokayev said great-power security guarantees could help move toward peace. The Kremlin said Putin told Tokayev a freeze was impossible under Kyiv’s current position and repeated Russia’s demands on occupied regions and Ukraine’s NATO ambitions. Alessandra Prentice and Ron Popeski, Reuters, July 25

Tokayev calls for Ukraine war freeze as Black Sea and Caspian risks grow. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev urged Russia and Ukraine to freeze the conflict and resume negotiations under an “Istanbul Formula 2.0,” supported by security guarantees from major powers. Kazakhstan declined a formal mediation role while maintaining its strategic partnership with Russia and support for sovereignty and territorial integrity. The appeal came as attacks disrupted Kazakhstan’s main oil export route through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, cut domestic production, and extended security risks into the Caspian Sea. Stephen M. Bland, The Times of Central Asia, July 26

Uzbekistan

Mirziyoyev, Erdoğan discuss strategic partnership. Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reviewed the expansion of the Uzbekistan-Türkiye comprehensive strategic partnership during a telephone call. They highlighted growing trade, joint ventures, regular flights, major projects, and cultural exchanges, including Uzbekistan-themed facilities in Hatay and Turkish participation in events in Namangan. Mirziyoyev invited Erdoğan to make an official visit to Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan Daily, July 24

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East Asia

China’s changing vision of globalisation. China treats globalisation as a development tool, not an end rooted in interdependence. Beijing combines openness with strategic self-reliance, industrial resilience, and supply chain security. Policies such as Made in China 2025, dual circulation, domestic chip development, and overseas expansion aim to reduce vulnerability while preserving access to markets. This strategy spreads Chinese production networks across foreign markets and prompts tariffs, investment screening, and de-risking responses from advanced economy governments. G Venkat Raman, East Asia Forum, July 25

America Still Has the Upper Hand Over China. The United States retains greater economic leverage than China because American firms and allied companies dominate high-tech profits, advanced inputs, and export markets crucial to Chinese growth. Beijing can weaponize rare earths and soybean purchases, but those chokepoints may weaken as supply chains diversify. Washington has squandered its advantage through tariffs on allies. Coordinated action with Europe and Asia could constrain Chinese coercion, protect industries, and impose costs on Beijing. Ben A. Vagle and Stephen G. Brooks, Foreign Affairs, July 24

Burnham's Britain will take its China cues from Washington. Andy Burnham enters office with a history of engagement with China, but Britain’s dependence on the United States limits any reset with Beijing. Washington has pressured personnel choices and shaped decisions on Huawei and strategic assets. Domestic concern over China narrows his options, while US trade weight creates a stronger constraint. Compensation for Jingye, Manchester links, and the survival of the Beijing partnership will reveal the scale of Burnham’s autonomy. Thomas O. Falk, Nikkei Asia, July 25

The One Unsuccessful Chinese Export: Nuclear Energy. China has built a nuclear fleet but has struggled to export reactors beyond Pakistan. Projects in Argentina collapsed over financing and geopolitical alignment, while Kazakhstan’s purchases remain uncertain. Governments weigh cost against security, maintenance, fuel dependence, and political influence over decades. Chinese financing and turnkey construction offer advantages, but Western alternatives and World Bank support may attract buyers. Energy security concerns could create future openings for Beijing’s civil nuclear industry. Paulína Ovečková, China Observers, July 27

China's New Phase of Financial Statecraft and RMB Internationalisation. China’s renminbi strategy prioritizes resilience over dollar replacement. Beijing aims to reduce exposure to Western financial infrastructure while retaining capital controls and domestic safeguards. Measures include tighter links between onshore and offshore markets, expanded business through the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, digital currency development, swap agreements, and cross-border payment systems. Hong Kong remains a bridge between China and global capital markets. This approach supports coexistence among several independent financial networks. Matteo Giovannini, China-US Focus, July 24

The New Oil Paradigm: China's as Market Stabilizer and Distorter. China emerged from the 2026 oil crisis with greater influence over energy markets. Reduced crude imports eased price pressure, while refined fuel export limits caused shortages and inflation across Asia. Electric vehicles, renewable power, coal conversion, and oil reserves cut dependence on imported crude. State control lets Beijing buy during low prices, draw stocks during disruptions, and direct exports. Opaque reserve data leaves traders unable to judge demand or supply. Kathryn Neville, China-US Focus, July 24

If Europe wants to use its trade leverage with China, now is the time. Europe retains substantial trade leverage over China, with Chinese dependence on 110 EU product categories in 2024, including 15 strategic goods such as vaccines, zirconium, turbines, machine tools, and aircraft. Yet China’s import substitution drive is shrinking this leverage. The EU should act through a unified trade strategy, strengthen its Anti-Coercion Instrument, reduce Chinese dependencies, expand supply sources, and prepare defensive measures if negotiations fail to rebalance commerce with Beijing. Andreas Mischer, MERICS, July 24

South Korea’s semiconductor boom risks flatlining under US–China pressure. South Korea’s semiconductor exports surged in 2026, but dependence on China and US licensing creates twin risks. Samsung and SK Hynix rely on Chinese plants for major memory production, while US controls govern access to equipment and software. China’s drive for chip self-reliance may cause oversupply and weaken Korean profits. Seoul should expand infrastructure, speed permits, train workers, support smaller suppliers, and deepen partnerships between manufacturers and regional university clusters. Hanna Kim and Zhuoshi Bai, East Asia Forum, July 25

Yoon’s life sentence alone will not restore trust in South Korea’s democracy. Yoon Suk-yeol’s life sentence affirmed constitutional accountability after his failed martial law declaration, but punishment cannot repair South Korea’s political divisions or weak trust in courts. Supporters continue to reject the verdict, while past pardons and claims of selective prosecution fuel doubt about equal justice. Democratic recovery requires judicial reform, civic education, consistent enforcement, and safeguards against political interference so citizens view institutions as fair, durable, and worthy of confidence. Joan Cho, East Asia Forum, July 24

Southeast Asia

Redirecting Crypto Exchanges to Fight Rather than Facilitate Crypto Scams in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian crypto scams exploit exchanges as gateways for victim payments and criminal cashouts, while baseline anti-money laundering rules have failed to curb losses. Governments should require exchanges to monitor scams, mule accounts, and obfuscation tools using customer and blockchain data. Shared liability, enhanced checks on self-hosted wallets, national blacklists, stronger inspections, and regional intelligence sharing could shift platforms from passive compliance toward fraud prevention and disrupt cross-border criminal networks. David Lam, FULCRUM, July 24

Indonesian electoral reform remains stalled by political deadlock. Indonesia’s electoral reform remains blocked by divisions within President Prabowo Subianto’s coalition. Constitutional Court rulings require changes before the 2029 elections, yet parties disagree over parliamentary thresholds, campaign finance, state resources, and oversight bodies. Delay risks preserving rules that favor incumbents, enable opaque funding, and weaken electoral competition. Parliament should open deliberations through transparent public consultation, strengthen audits, restrict misuse of government programs, and shield election administrators from partisan influence. Kahfi Hafiz, East Asia Forum, July 24

South Asia

Narendra Modi’s party discovers the limits of propaganda. Mass protests over repeated exam leaks exposed limits in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s control of India’s media narrative. Police removed activist Sonam Wangchuk from a hunger strike, then used force against demonstrators marching on Parliament. Videos of assaults spread across platforms despite an internet shutdown. The images angered students who face high tuition, scarce university places, and weak job prospects, forcing the government to confront dissent it could not dismiss. The Economist, July 23

India energy resilience faces tougher test as tensions with Iran rise. India managed the first Hormuz disruption through inventories, flexible refineries, diverse sourcing, and diplomacy with Iran. Renewed conflict, Houthi attacks, and sanctions pressure on Russian oil threaten core safeguards. New Delhi should diversify suppliers by geopolitical and shipping risk, permit fuel price adjustments, protect consumers, consider measures that retain products, and expand sovereign reserves. Durable energy security requires overlapping options that can adapt as routes and suppliers become exposed. Vandana Hari, Nikkei Asia, July 26

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China

China begins two days of live-fire drills in Taiwan Strait. China began two days of live-fire drills near Dongshan Island in the Taiwan Strait, shortly after Rubio and Wang Yi discussed Taiwan and other issues. The drills were scheduled to run from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. each day. Taiwan condemned the exercises, urged Beijing to stop military provocations and gray-zone intrusions, and accused China of creating regional tensions. Liz Lee, Reuters, July 23

Rubio says China’s actions in the South China Sea are “disturbing.” Marco Rubio called China’s South China Sea actions disturbing and reaffirmed U.S. defense commitments to the Philippines after new confrontations near Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal. Manila accused a Chinese coast guard vessel of firing a water cannon at a fisheries vessel and said a Filipino sailor was injured Monday. China said it drove away Philippine vessels and defended its actions as lawful. Liz Lee, Shi Bu, Mikhail Flores, and Nestor Corrales, Reuters, July 23

U.S. slaps fresh tariffs on China, 50-plus countries in latest wave. The U.S. imposed new Section 301 tariffs on 60 countries over forced labor concerns, replacing a temporary 10% blanket levy. China faces a 12.5% rate, while Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, and the European Union face tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5%. Analysts said the move is unlikely to cause the same market shock as earlier sweeping tariffs, but it adds uncertainty as Washington seeks new trade tools after a Supreme Court ruling limited prior import levies. Nayan Seth, South China Morning Post, July 23

Pentagon expands blacklist to include China’s top civilian universities. The Pentagon added Fudan University and Shanghai Jiao Tong University to its Section 1286 list, expanding research restrictions beyond military-linked Chinese institutions. The list now identifies 88 mainland Chinese institutions and bars Pentagon-funded researchers from collaborating with them or using their equipment starting in the 2026 financial year. The Defense Department cited risks of technology transfer and research misappropriation, while China’s embassy accused Washington of politicizing normal academic exchanges. Teresa Elena Frontado, South China Morning Post, July 23

Japan

Japan to send students to Russia for first time in 7 years. Japan will resume a short-term study program in Russia from August, sending about 15 Russian-language university students to St. Petersburg for around 10 days of language classes and exchanges with local students. The Foreign Ministry said the policy toward Russia, including sanctions, remains unchanged despite severe bilateral relations and domestic criticism. The program, launched in 1999, had been suspended because of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Kyodo News, July 23

Japan, China foreign ministers chat, 1st since spat over Taiwan began. Toshimitsu Motegi said he briefly spoke with Wang Yi in Manila, marking the first contact between the foreign ministers since Sanae Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks triggered a backlash from Beijing last November. Motegi gave no details but said dialogue remains essential because Japan and China play important roles in regional peace. The exchange may affect prospects for a Takaichi-Xi Jinping meeting at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November. Kyodo News, July 23

South Korea

Investigators raid election watchdog after detecting data manipulation. Investigators raided the National Election Commission headquarters in Gwacheon to secure evidence in a widening probe into ballot shortages during the June 3 local elections. A prosecution-police task force detected evidence that some NEC employees manipulated statistics in the computer system to cover up voter-number errors. Ballot shortages were reported at multiple polling stations, forcing some voters to leave without casting ballots. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, July 23

Ex-land minister questioned over expressway project linked to ex-first lady. Former Land Minister Won Hee-ryong appeared before a special counsel team for questioning over suspicions that he tried to change the endpoint of the planned Seoul-Yangpyeong expressway to benefit former first lady Kim Keon Hee’s family. The revised endpoint would have been near land owned by Kim’s family, but Won canceled the project in July 2023 after the controversy emerged. Investigators are also examining whether Won bypassed procedures during the cancellation. Kim Seong-hun, Yonhap News Agency, July 23

Ex-PM Kim, 2 former DP leaders to vie for ruling party leadership. Former Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and former Democratic Party leaders Jung Chung-rae and Song Young-gil advanced to the final round of the ruling party’s leadership race. The DP will choose its new leader at an Aug. 17 national convention, with the winner expected to oversee nominations for the April 2028 parliamentary elections. Former presidential spokesperson Ko Min-jung and former Gangjin councilmember Kim Bo-mi failed to make the cut. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, July 23

North Korea

China quietly eases customs rules for North Korea. China temporarily eased customs rules for equipment and materials tied to North Korea’s civilian economy, allowing some goods previously delayed by sanctions concerns to move through formal channels. Trade sources said the arrangement covers livelihood and economic items submitted within a limited window after Xi Jinping’s June visit to Pyongyang and anniversary exchanges tied to the countries’ 1961 treaty. Dandong traders are rushing to secure approved goods, while uncertainty remains over eligible items, shipment volumes, and the policy’s duration. Seon Hwa, Daily NK, July 23

South Korea shifting to “peace first” North Korea policy, retains denuclearisation goal. South Korea is replacing a “denuclearisation first” policy with a “peace first” approach while keeping the long-term goal of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Unification Minister Chung Dong-young said Seoul will initially seek to freeze North Korea’s nuclear programme because demanding denuclearisation before dialogue has prevented talks. Pyongyang remains hostile to Lee Jae Myung’s overtures, but Chung said North Korea and the U.S. still have strategic demand for renewed talks. Kyu-Seok Shim, Reuters, July 23

Vietnam

Vietnam, U.S. seek to substantially promote Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Deputy Foreign Minister Nguyen Minh Hang received newly appointed U.S. Ambassador Jennifer Wicks and called for stronger implementation of the Vietnam-U.S. Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Hang urged closer work on high-level exchanges, trade, investment, science, technology, and other priority fields, and sought U.S. support for Vietnam’s APEC Year 2027. Wicks said the U.S. values the partnership and pledged to work with Vietnamese agencies to promote substantive, effective, and mutually beneficial cooperation. Vietnam News, July 23

Vietnam reaffirms trade talks, urges U.S. to conclude trade investigation. Vietnam reaffirmed its commitment to concluding trade negotiations with the U.S. after Marco Rubio and Le Hoai Trung met on the sidelines of ASEAN meetings in Manila. Hanoi urged Washington to complete its Section 301 investigation with a decision recognizing Vietnam’s efforts. Vietnam faces three Trump administration probes, while Trung said Hanoi is willing to facilitate expanded U.S. business and investment. Phuong Nguyen, Reuters, July 23

Myanmar

Myanmar regime admits abducting young men for conscription. Myanmar’s regime publicly acknowledged seizing young men from homes and checkpoints for military service, with Deputy Home Affairs Minister Min Thu saying authorities were compelled to act because draft-age men were fleeing townships. He said the raids target people who fail to report for duty, though lawmakers raised concerns about arbitrary arrests of students and schoolboys. The revived conscription law has prompted a youth exodus, while reports describe routine abductions and ransom cases in major cities. The Irrawaddy, July 23

Myanmar leaders’ return to ASEAN meetings “still far off,” bloc’s envoy says. Philippine Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro said Myanmar leaders remain far from returning to top ASEAN meetings because compliance with the bloc’s Five-Point Consensus is still under assessment. Lazaro, ASEAN’s special envoy on Myanmar, said benchmarks will be set to measure progress and determine non-compliance. She will lead a humanitarian mission later this year but said access to detained Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi is uncertain. Mikhail Flores, Reuters, July 23

Laos

China approves market access to imported jackfruit from Laos, deepening agricultural cooperation. China approved imports of fresh jackfruit from Laos that meet phytosanitary standards, creating a new agricultural trade channel between the two countries. The rules require approved orchards and packing facilities, traceability systems, pre-export inspections, quarantine checks, and certification. The opening follows expanded bilateral trade, improved logistics through the China-Laos Railway, and commitments to deepen food-safety, quarantine, and agricultural cooperation under Belt and Road mechanisms. Vientiane Times, July 23

Laos strengthens ASEAN ties with dialogue partners. Laos joined ASEAN foreign ministers’ meetings in Manila with 11 dialogue partners, focusing on trade, investment, digital transformation, energy security, connectivity, innovation, climate action, and people-to-people links. Foreign Minister Thongsavan Phomvihane co-chaired the ASEAN-Canada meeting, where ministers adopted a 2026-2030 action plan and urged completion of free trade talks in 2026. ASEAN also reviewed cooperation plans with India, the U.S., Russia, China, South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, the EU, and the UK. Vientiane Times, July 24

Philippines

Trump to Marcos: Will raise PH concerns with Xi. Donald Trump told Ferdinand Marcos Jr. he would raise Philippine concerns with Xi Jinping in his next meeting with the Chinese leader. The call followed Marcos’ meeting with Marco Rubio and came after new confrontations in the West Philippine Sea. Marcos sought a reset with China after summoning Ambassador Jing Quan over the Ayungin incident, while Philippine officials rejected Beijing’s claim that Manila needed permission for resupply missions and reaffirmed that the provisional arrangement does not concede sovereignty, jurisdiction, boarding, or inspection rights. Dexter Cabalza and Gabryelle Dumalag, Inquirer.net, July 24

China Coast Guard fires water cannon at Philippine vessel in Bajo de Masinloc. A China Coast Guard vessel fired a water cannon for more than two minutes at BRP Datu Dumangsil while the Philippine government ship was delivering fuel and food to Filipino fishermen near Bajo de Masinloc. Philippine authorities said the Chinese vessel maneuvered dangerously close before the attack. The mission was completed, no personnel were injured, and officials condemned the incident as harassment of lawful Philippine operations in the West Philippine Sea. Izel Abanilla, The Manila Times, July 23

No discussion on ICC during Rubio’s meeting with PBBM — Castro. Marco Rubio did not discuss the Trump administration’s campaign against the International Criminal Court during his courtesy call on Ferdinand Marcos Jr., according to Claire Castro. Philippine Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez separately raised the ICC issue with the U.S. State Department, citing the Philippines’ residual obligations and cooperation with Interpol. Castro said U.S. officials understood the sensitivity of pending ICC cases involving Filipinos, including Rodrigo Duterte and Ronald Dela Rosa. Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, July 23

Indonesia

Indonesia says M-346 F jet shopping spree needed to train pilots. Indonesia said its order for 12 Italian M-346 F multirole light fighter aircraft is needed to prepare pilots for a modernized air fleet. Defense Ministry spokesman Rico Ricardo Sirait said the aircraft will help crews adapt to advanced technologies, support logistics readiness, and strengthen the national defense industry. The jets are expected from 2030 and could help pilots transition to Rafale fighters already ordered from France. Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta Globe, July 23

Indonesia urges Japan, ASEAN to boost support for Palestine. Indonesia urged Japan and ASEAN members to use CEAPAD to provide stronger support for Palestine’s recovery and long-term development. Foreign Minister Sugiono said Palestine is a matter of justice, dignity, and the right to rebuild. The ASEAN-Japan meeting also emphasized secure shipping lanes, maritime cooperation, energy transition, regional energy security, and stronger trade and investment through ASEAN-Japan, RCEP, and ASEAN Plus Three frameworks. ANTARA News, July 23

Malaysia

Malaysia asks UNHCR to temporarily cease registration of refugees. Malaysia asked the UN refugee agency to pause new refugee registrations while it implements a domestic registration programme launched in January. Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Lukanisman Awang Sauni said the system would strengthen identity verification, monitoring, and regulation. UNHCR counted about 215,600 refugees and asylum-seekers in Malaysia at the end of February, more than half Rohingya from Myanmar. Malaysia also plans to deport about 5,000 detained Myanmar nationals, subject to Myanmar’s agreement. Rozanna Latiff, Reuters, July 23

Singapore

Singapore navy launches second multi-role combat vessel nine months after first. Singapore launched Valour, the navy’s second multi-role combat vessel, three months faster than the first ship after lessons from earlier construction. The vessels will replace Victory-class missile corvettes from 2028 and are designed for configurable missions with unmanned systems. K. Shanmugam said secure maritime routes are a national priority, citing stressed trade routes and the Strait of Hormuz, and highlighted Singapore’s ability to build advanced warships domestically. Wong Man Shun, The Straits Times, July 23

Taiwan

Taiwan condemns China after another research vessel enters its EEZ. Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration condemned China after the Lanhai 201 research vessel conducted a weeklong fisheries survey in Taiwan’s EEZ. Taiwan said the activity violated its sovereignty and harmed cross-strait peace and regional stability. The Coast Guard monitored the vessel as it sailed near Orchid Island, and said the incident followed a similar Chinese research mission in June and broader Chinese maritime operations east of Taiwan. Liu Chien-pang and Joseph Yeh, Focus Taiwan, July 23

Bangladesh

Bangladesh president to resign Friday as pressure grows over Hasina’s planned return. Bangladesh President Mohammed Shahabuddin will resign Friday halfway through his term after Sheikh Hasina announced plans to return from exile and surrender following a court conviction. His spokesperson said the resignation becomes effective once a signed letter is submitted to the speaker, who would become interim president until a successor is elected. Sources said the government pressed Shahabuddin to step aside because of his ties to Hasina, whose Awami League is banned after the 2024 uprising. Krishna N. Das and Ruma Paul, Reuters, July 23

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East Asia

From Property Boom to AI: China’s Next Corruption Risk. Ma Xingrui’s expulsion exposes corruption networks that linked officials, relatives, state enterprises, developers, and finance during China’s property boom. As growth shifts toward artificial intelligence, semiconductors, electric vehicles, robotics, and biotechnology, scarce resources include computing power, data, investment funds, talent, and application access. Government support remains central to industrial development, creating rent-seeking risks. China needs transparent allocation, legal safeguards, and fair competition to prevent vested interests from capturing state resources. Sim Tze Wei, ThinkChina, July 23

Xi’s Demands for Loyalty Are Breeding Corruption. Ma Xingrui’s fall exposes weaknesses in Xi Jinping’s loyalty-centered system for selecting and supervising senior officials. Ma passed vetting, led Xinjiang, joined the Politburo, and built a corruption network involving relatives, aides, businesses, projects, and appointments. Obedience earned trust while oversight failed to detect abuse. Party inspections punish misconduct after leaders authorize investigations, but secrecy, fear, weak disclosure, and absent independent scrutiny let trusted officials convert political favor into protection. Deng Yuwen, Foreign Policy, July 23

Beijing Is Celebrating a Race It Never Ran. A Pew survey found better views of China than the United States in 25 of 36 countries, but the result reflects American decline, not Chinese soft-power success. China gains approval where investment, trade, and lending matter, yet faces distrust near contested borders and among wealthy democracies. Views of Chinese freedoms remain negative across much of the West and Asia. Beijing benefits from anger toward Washington, not attraction to China itself. Bobby Ghosh, Foreign Policy, July 23

China Is AI-Maxxing. Chinese AI firms Moonshot AI and Alibaba released Kimi K3 and Qwen 3.8, reviving concern that Beijing is closing the technology gap with Washington. Their open-weight models offer strong performance, low costs, and access despite shortages of advanced chips and computing power. United States officials accuse Chinese developers of distillation and technology access. China’s open model strategy may attract startups and governments while export controls struggle to curb adoption. Rishi Iyengar, Foreign Policy, July 23

PRC Drone Economy Sheds Hobbyists for Workflows. China’s drone economy is moving from hobbyist use toward regulated industrial workflows that the state can register, identify, approve, monitor, dispatch, and insure. Agriculture and power inspection show viable demand while logistics, urban services, tourism, and passenger flight depend on subsidies or lack stable profits. Tight domestic rules and United States restrictions weaken consumer growth. Manufacturers seek revenue from equipment sales to government, industry, farms, and markets with cost savings. CHINA POLICY, July 23

China’s Moment of Weakness. China’s economic model is weakening as property collapse, bad debt, slow credit growth, weak domestic demand, and shrinking fiscal capacity constrain Beijing’s policy tools. Export dependence drives low-priced goods into global markets and deepens trade conflict. Logan Wright sees an opening for the United States and its allies to defend industrial capacity, build alternative supply chains, and use access to consumer demand as leverage against Chinese export controls and coercion. Logan Wright, Foreign Affairs, July 23

Keeping the Ball in Play: Sports, Rules, and U.S.-China Relations. Sports offer a model for U.S.-China relations through fierce competition bounded by shared rules, officials, and accepted limits. Basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, table tennis, and pickleball create experiences across national differences. Mixed American and Chinese teams demonstrate cooperation within rivalry. With tensions rising in the Western Pacific and artificial intelligence, both governments need common expectations that reduce misperception, preserve trust, and keep conflict within recognizable boundaries between the two powers. James Chau, China-US Focus, July 22

Xi-Putin Summit Displays Transition Not Only in Global Power but in the Global Order. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin used their Beijing summit to promote an alternative vision of international order, not a formal alliance. Their statement condemned strikes on Iran, criticized Japan’s defense policies, opposed United States missile deployments, and supported deeper energy cooperation. China’s growing power supports efforts to reshape global rules, norms, and legitimacy. Australia and other middle powers should diversify partnerships, defend legal principles, strengthen institutions, and shape regional narratives. Alexander Korolev, East Asia Forum, July 23

Evolution, Not Revolution: Why China Isn’t Pushing Its Cleantech Advantage in the Hormuz Crisis. China restrained fossil fuel imports during the Strait of Hormuz crisis because higher oil prices threaten its larger export economy. Cleantech represented 6 percent of Chinese exports in 2025, while electronics, textiles, metals, and chemicals generated greater revenue. Costlier energy weakens global growth and reduces demand for Chinese goods. The crisis may support clean energy adoption over time, but Beijing favors stability and gradual transition over disruption that harms trade. David M. Hart, Council on Foreign Relations, July 23

How Chinese Cars Took Over Thailand. Chinese automakers captured 30 percent of Thailand’s vehicle market and 89 percent of electric vehicle sales through tariff advantages, subsidies, low prices, model choice, and pressure to export excess production. Their future growth depends on fiscal support, charging infrastructure, local production rules, and political acceptance. Chinese investment has expanded assembly and parts capacity, but local content remains below Japanese levels, raising risks for employment, local suppliers, and Thailand’s automotive industry. Gregor Williams, Agatha Kratz and Armand Meyer, Rhodium Group, July 23

The Factors That Matter: A Formula for Understanding China’s Use of Force Calculus Over Taiwan. China’s decision to use force against Taiwan emerges from interactions among eight variables. Internal factors include PLA readiness, domestic stability, and Xi Jinping’s legacy. External factors cover Taiwan’s separation trajectory, geopolitical events, United States intervention, allied participation, and Taiwanese defenses. War risk rises when Beijing sees force as urgent, feasible, and affordable. Danger grows if leaders believe China’s advantage approaches its peak as Taiwan’s identity and regional support networks strengthen. Lyle Morris, Asia Society, July 23

North Korea’s Nuclear Doctrine: Implications and Strategic Countermeasures for the US-ROK Alliance. North Korea has embedded nuclear weapons development and command rules in its constitution, ending prospects for near-term denuclearization and lowering the threshold for use. Its expanding arsenal, tactical systems, strike exercises, and ties with Russia create risks of coercion and miscalculation. Seoul and Washington should strengthen deterrence through nuclear sharing, deployed assets, artificial intelligence, unmanned systems, sanctions, alliance integration, and diplomatic pressure tied to responsible nuclear conduct and nonproliferation standards. Yong-sup Han, 38 North, July 23

Southeast Asia

Cambodia Still Seeks Peace With Thailand. Cambodia says the ceasefire with Thailand has failed to produce peace because Thai forces remain on Cambodian territory and thousands of families remain displaced. Phnom Penh accuses Thai authorities of demolitions, land surveys, barriers, excavation, and road construction during the truce. Cambodia calls for sovereignty, civilian returns, legal settlement through boundary agreements, renewed Joint Boundary Commission work, maritime talks under UNCLOS, and ASEAN observation to prevent conflict and support resettlement. Prak Sokhonn, Nikkei Asia, July 23

Thailand’s Defence Budget: Money and Materiel. Thailand’s defence spending rose after the 2025 Cambodia border clashes and under Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, whose government seeks military support. The 2027 budget remains at 203.4 billion baht despite national austerity. Procurement favors the Army, with purchases spread across United States, Chinese, and European suppliers. Drone warfare, border security, modernization, and domestic industry shape plans, but military power over budgets weakens civilian oversight, accountability, and democratic control in Thailand. Paul Chambers, FULCRUM, July 23

South Asia

Modi’s Australian Hat-Trick. Narendra Modi’s third visit to Australia marked a mature bilateral relationship built on trust despite past disputes. New agreements deepen defense, maritime, energy, and industrial cooperation, while uranium export arrangements give India another supply source for nuclear power. Trade could grow through a full free trade agreement. The visit showed that ties can withstand political tensions, migration concerns, and historical setbacks, with security, economic, diplomatic, and cultural links sustaining partnership. Purnendra Jain, East Asia Forum, July 23

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China

Senior Chinese leader Wang Huning tours Tibet, stresses ethnic unity, stability. Wang Huning urged Tibet to safeguard stability, enforce China’s new ethnic unity law, and align Tibetan Buddhism more closely with Communist Party priorities during a four-day tour of Lhasa and Ngari. Wang said governing Tibet requires stabilizing Tibet first, called for full implementation of the law, and emphasized Sinicization of religion. His visit included a monastery tour highlighting law-based management of religious institutions. Reuters, July 22

U.S. lawmakers accuse China of using UN peacekeeping forces to spy on countries. U.S. lawmakers and UN Ambassador Mike Waltz alleged China’s peacekeeping roles in strategic regions may serve military and intelligence objectives. Waltz said Washington is pushing back against Beijing’s efforts to limit Taiwan’s UN participation while pursuing UN reforms, budget cuts, and peacekeeping reductions. China’s embassy rejected the claims as baseless and accused critics of Cold War thinking. Mark Magnier, South China Morning Post, July 22

U.S. not getting enough critical minerals from China, Greer says as Xi-Trump meeting looms. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said critical mineral exports from China are flowing but remain below Washington’s desired volume and pace. He said U.S. officials are pressing Beijing to speed export approvals while accelerating domestic production to reduce dependence. The comments came as Marco Rubio and Wang Yi discussed potential economic deliverables ahead of Xi Jinping’s expected White House visit. Nayan Seth, South China Morning Post, July 22

Beijing and Manila should avoid South China Sea “miscalculation”: top diplomats. Wang Yi and Maria Theresa Lazaro met in Manila after a new clash near Second Thomas Shoal and stressed reducing miscalculation, maintaining stability, and keeping dialogue open. Lazaro protested Chinese actions against Filipino personnel and raised concern over a Chinese state media video mocking the 2016 arbitral ruling. Both sides discussed maritime disputes, security, trade, tourism, confidence-building measures, and code of conduct talks. Shi Jiangtao, South China Morning Post, July 22

Rubio meets Wang, discusses laying groundwork for Chinese president’s U.S. visit. Marco Rubio said he and Wang Yi discussed potential cooperation to prepare for Xi Jinping’s expected September visit to Washington. Rubio said the U.S. and China must manage major differences, including Taiwan and trade, while maintaining dialogue because of both countries’ global influence. Election interference allegations were not discussed. Rubio also called the latest South China Sea altercation an escalation and reaffirmed U.S. treaty obligations to the Philippines. Michael Martina, Mikhail Flores, Shi Bu, and Martin Petty, Reuters, July 22

Japan

Upper House panel approves referendum reform bill. An Upper House committee approved a bill easing requirements for appointing poll watchers under Japan’s national referendum law for constitutional amendments. The measure was backed by the ruling coalition and several opposition parties, excluding the Japanese Communist Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi. The committee also adopted a supplementary resolution calling for measures on advertising and internet use in referendum campaigns. The Japan Times, July 22

Takaichi faces growing headache over LDP and JIP’s lack of unity. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi faces criticism over weak coordination between the Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Japan Innovation Party. Parliament was extended until Saturday because of a clash over a JIP-backed bill that some LDP members oppose, adding pressure as Takaichi’s approval rating slips. The coalition was formed after Komeito left the ruling bloc, making JIP support essential to Takaichi’s premiership. Eric Johnston, The Japan Times, July 22

South Korea

South Korean industry minister heads to U.S. as tariff decision looms. Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan traveled to Washington for trade and investment talks before an expected U.S. Section 301 tariff decision tied to forced labor concerns. He will meet U.S. officials on shipbuilding, energy, resources, strategic investment, and tariff implementation, including cooperation through a new South Korea-U.S. Shipbuilding Partnership Center. Joyce Lee, Reuters, July 22

Lee to visit U.S., Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and Germany from Friday through Aug. 3. President Lee Jae Myung will begin a five-nation trip in San Francisco, where he will meet tech leaders including Sam Altman and Jensen Huang, attend a high-level AI meeting with South Korean conglomerate chiefs, and issue a San Francisco AI declaration. He will then visit Brazil, Chile, and Argentina for summits focused on trade, investment, and South Korea’s regional diplomacy before stopping in Frankfurt. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 22

South Korea says Coupang dispute not holding up U.S. trade and security agenda. National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac said South Korea’s dispute with Coupang over a data leak is not delaying trade, investment, or security talks with Washington. Seoul continues consultations on U.S. investment pledges, possible Section 301 tariffs, and uranium enrichment and spent-fuel reprocessing talks. Heejin Kim and Kyu-Seok Shim, Reuters, July 22

North Korea

S. Korea seizes cargo vessel suspected of violating U.N. sanctions on N. Korea. South Korea seized the cargo vessel Prada, also known as Sophia, after an investigation confirmed violations of U.N. sanctions on North Korea. The ship had been moved to Pyeongtaek in March and was among seven vessels named in a May joint statement urging U.N. action over suspected North Korean coal and iron ore exports. Woo Jae-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, July 22

Vietnam

Vietnam attends ASEAN foreign ministers’ meetings with partners. Vietnam joined ASEAN meetings with Canada, South Korea, Australia, and CEAPAD, supporting deeper cooperation on energy security, AI, digital transformation, innovation, education, healthcare, disaster response, and Mekong development. Vietnam backed ASEAN centrality, freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea, peaceful dispute settlement under UNCLOS, and continued support for Palestinian development through training and international coordination. Vietnam News, July 22

Thailand

Thailand presses on with Cambodia border fence after 2025 clashes. Thailand completed the first 1.3-kilometer section of a permanent border fence with Cambodia in Pong Nam Ron, using reinforced concrete, steel mesh, and concertina wire. Chief of Defense Forces General Ukrit Boontanon said the barrier was built for long-term security and tested against small-arms fire. The military plans more than 7 kilometers of additional fencing after last year’s clashes killed nearly 150 people and displaced 300,000. Artorn Pookasook, Chalinee Thirasupa, and Panu Wongcha-um, Reuters, July 2

PP attacks changes to card terms. The People’s Party criticized revised state welfare card criteria, saying poor cabinet coordination could exclude vulnerable people. Veerayooth Kanchoochat said rules on vehicle ownership, disability classifications, farm landholdings, and agricultural debt were not properly scrutinized before approval. He urged a broader assessment using data from multiple ministries instead of relying on single indicators. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, July 22

PM to sue over Senate collusion claim. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul vowed to sue iLaw chief Yingcheep Atchanont for defamation after allegations linked Anutin and senior Bhumjaithai figures to manipulation of the 2024 Senate election. Anutin said no indictment has been filed, questioned the credibility of unnamed witnesses, and ruled out reconciliation. Bhumjaithai assigned Supachai Jaisamut to pursue legal action. Bangkok Post, July 22

Myanmar

Three aid workers found dead as Myanmar troops clear Dawei SEZ. Three aid workers from The Ants and another civilian were found dead in Yebyu Township after reportedly being abducted as human shields by Myanmar regime troops. More than 500 troops advanced through villages near the Russian-backed Dawei Special Economic Zone, while residents fled looting, arson, and forced displacement. Local volunteers said displaced villagers urgently need food, shelter, and medicines. Phoe Tar, The Irrawaddy, July 22

Cambodia

Prak Sokhonn raises displaced people concerns with ASEAN. Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn urged ASEAN counterparts to support the safe return of more than 20,000 civilians still displaced after the Cambodia-Thailand border ceasefire. He said the crisis has kept children out of school and limited care for vulnerable groups, while also discussing human rights work, nuclear-weapon-free-zone commitments, and bilateral cooperation with the Philippines and Timor-Leste. Rin Ousa, Cambodianess, July 22

Philippines

Philippine, Chinese foreign ministers trade protests over South China Sea encounter. Philippine Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi exchanged strong protests in Manila over the Second Thomas Shoal confrontation. Lazaro cited unacceptable actions against Filipino personnel, while Wang accused Philippine personnel of ramming Chinese vessels. Both sides discussed keeping communication open and managing tensions. Mikhail Flores and Martin Petty, Reuters, July 22

Marcos, Rubio commit to build further on PH-U.S. longstanding ties. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Marco Rubio agreed to strengthen Philippines-U.S. cooperation during Rubio’s first Manila visit as secretary of state. Their discussions covered the Middle East conflict, AI, defense, security, economic cooperation, Indo-Pacific stability, trade, business ties, and disaster response. The Philippines and the U.S. are marking 80 years of diplomatic relations, with defense cooperation remaining a central pillar. The Manila Times, July 22

Defense says VP’s request for Senate-funded catering during trial has not been approved. Sara Duterte’s defense team said the Senate has not approved the Office of the Vice President’s request for Senate-funded catering during her impeachment trial. Defense spokesman Michael Wesley Poa said the team was not involved in the request, which sought food and beverages from the OVP’s accredited caterer for lawyers, staff, and witnesses, citing security and orderly proceedings. James Daniel Danio, The Manila Times, July 22

Singapore

PM Wong unveils new Cabinet; appoints first-term politicians to larger roles. Lawrence Wong announced a Cabinet reshuffle that promotes newer political officeholders while retaining experienced leaders during Singapore’s leadership transition. Jeffrey Siow and David Neo will become full ministers, Jasmin Lau will helm the Manpower Ministry as acting minister, Ng Chee Meng will return to Cabinet, and K. Shanmugam will become senior minister while retaining Home Affairs. Wong said the changes reflect a continuous renewal process following recent political resignations. Ng Wei Kai, The Straits Times, July 22

Taiwan

China using “elite capture” in Pacific, Taiwan says, citing PNG. Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung accused China of using “elite capture” to influence South Pacific leaders after Papua New Guinea ordered the closure of Taiwan’s representative office. Lin said the announcement reflected PNG Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko’s position rather than a Cabinet consensus, and Taiwan’s office continues operating. Taiwan is assessing LNG imports from PNG while warning that China is expanding influence through infrastructure, critical minerals, military activity, and pressure on regional governments. Joseph Yeh, Focus Taiwan, July 22

Pakistan

Pakistan and Uzbekistan turn to China for transit trade amid regional security risks. Pakistan and Uzbekistan agreed in principle to reroute some bilateral transit trade through China after insecurity disrupted routes through Afghanistan and Iran. The revised arrangement would make the China corridor an official route through Pakistan’s Sost Dry Port, western China, and Central Asia. The route is expected to serve as a strategic backup rather than a full replacement because it involves longer distances, additional border procedures, higher costs, and longer transit times. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, July 22

Turkmenistan

New U.S. embassy chief in Turkmenistan to continue building ties. Kristin Hawkins became charge d’affaires ad interim at the U.S. Embassy in Ashgabat after Elizabeth Rood completed her ambassadorial tour. Hawkins will lead the mission until a permanent ambassador is appointed. She and Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov reaffirmed interest in strengthening Turkmen-U.S. cooperation, building on what Turkmenistan described as positive momentum in recent years through Washington’s broader trade and diplomatic outreach in Central Asia. The Times of Central Asia, July 22

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East Asia

When China Gets Its Own Mythos. Frontier AI models can detect and leverage software vulnerabilities on a scale formerly limited by the scarcity of human expertise. China might achieve similar capabilities within months, providing hackers with the means to endanger water, power, transit, and industrial infrastructure. The U.S. should focus on combating model theft and chip smuggling, enhancing counterintelligence efforts, establishing a dedicated institution for coordinated defenses, assisting vulnerable operators, and developing resilient infrastructure that can maintain essential services even if intrusions occur. Michael Sulmeyer, Foreign Affairs, July 22

Plugging In, Charging Ahead: Comparing EU and Canadian Approaches to Chinese Investment in the Electric Vehicle Sector. The EU and Canada aim to attract Chinese electric vehicle investments while safeguarding jobs, supply chains, technology, data, and competitiveness. The EU advocates for binding conditions via its Industrial Accelerator Act, such as ownership restrictions, joint ventures, local sourcing, research, employment, and technology transfer agreements. Canada focuses on market access, political dialogue, and principles emphasizing Canadian ownership, labor standards, domestic suppliers, and secure software solutions. Ongoing Beijing controls and North American trade uncertainties are likely to influence these strategies. Kate Logan and Taylah Bland, Asia Society, July 21

China’s real space race is not against SpaceX. China’s retrieval of the Long March 10B booster using a sea-based net system signifies progress toward reusable launch technology. Lower costs may enable satellite constellations, bolster Beijing’s infrastructure, and enhance control over communications, data, navigation, finance, logistics, and security. The design transfers landing complexity from the rocket to recovery ships, decreasing weight. China’s rivalry with the United States focuses on industrial scale, orbital networks, commercial ecosystems, and state influence. Akhmad Hanan, ThinkChina, July 22

Japan, China need an economic hotline as well as a defense one. China’s export controls on rare earths demonstrate how diplomatic conflicts can rapidly escalate into corporate crises. Japan’s reliance on Chinese minerals, components, and processing capacity makes its companies vulnerable to licensing delays and policy shifts. To mitigate these risks, Tokyo should develop early warning systems, diversify its supply sources, coordinate stockpiles with allies, and set up an economic hotline with Beijing. This channel could help clarify restrictions, outline enforcement measures, safeguard contracts, and prevent escalation while still allowing for national security measures. David Tingxuan Zhang, Nikkei Asia, July 22

Japan’s half-cancelled employment bargain. Japanese companies continue to hire graduates en masse and value loyalty, yet they are pulling back on the security that once underpinned the postwar employment system. Profitable companies are downsizing staff, and young employees increasingly turn to resignation agencies to leave their jobs. The lack of consistent performance-based pay and minimal investment in skills have led to lower productivity and a shortage of midcareer managers. To adapt, employers should consider providing training, fair exit packages, or year-round trial hiring instead of maintaining a system designed for lifetime employment. Miyo Tanaka, East Asia Forum, July 22

Southeast Asia

Vietnam is ready to meet the middle power moment. Vietnam is transforming its economic growth and diplomatic prudence into influence as a middle power by forming partnerships, enhancing regional connectivity, and engaging in multilateral initiatives. It has signed agreements with Japan, India, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines on topics like climate resilience, digital infrastructure, food security, energy, and AI. Hanoi actively promotes cooperation on cybercrime, climate legislation, pandemic response, and AI regulation. Its strategy ties development efforts to security priorities while also addressing challenges such as export reliance, Chinese imports, territorial conflicts, and external pressure on the rules-based order. Nicholas Chapman, East Asia Forum, July 22

Vietnam’s Ambition for Double-Digit Growth: Rationale and Challenges. Vietnam aims for double-digit growth to attain high-income status before an aging population increases fiscal and healthcare pressures. Its strategy relies on expanding credit, public investments, consumption, exports, and infrastructure development. However, each of these drivers risks inflation, exchange rate stability, banking sector health, and asset prices. Challenges include low consumer confidence, reliance on trade, foreign-led exports, and speculative property lending, all adding to risks. Credit should be focused on transport, energy, and digital infrastructure, accompanied by better oversight, reforms, and safeguards to prevent capital misallocation. Ho Quoc Tuan, FULCRUM, July 22

South Asia

Why a Hunger Strike Is Rallying India’s Youth. Sonam Wangchuk’s hunger strike has emerged as a symbol of protest for young Indians frustrated by leaked medical entrance exams, unemployment, and perceived systemic unfairness. The Cockroach Janta Party has transformed an insult aimed at jobless youth into a rallying point for resistance. Wangchuk demands the resignation of the education minister and reforms to the exam process. His fast reflects India’s tradition of moral protest, using self-sacrifice to challenge authority, risking his life and facing potential political exploitation by rivals. Salil Tripathi, Foreign Policy, July 21

Central Asia

Where Are President Tokayev’s Political Reforms Leading Kazakhstan? Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s constitutional reforms, the introduction of a unicameral Quryltay, and the dominance of the Adilet party have restructured Kazakhstan’s political landscape without curbing presidential authority. These changes eliminate symbols from the Nazarbayev era, consolidate the ruling party, and promote technocrats whose careers are tied to Tokayev. A court decision allows his terms to be reset, keeping open the possibilities for reelection, early elections, or succession. This uncertainty enhances his power, while the existing system continues to concentrate authority and reflect a state-capitalist approach influenced by China and Singapore. Temur Umarov, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 22

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China

Trump softens tone on alleged China election meddling before Rubio-Wang talks. Donald Trump said Washington would discuss alleged Chinese interference in the 2020 election with Beijing but played down retaliation, saying the matter occurred long ago and that both countries act against each other. Marco Rubio and Wang Yi are expected to meet in Manila during ASEAN-related meetings, while China rejected the allegations as baseless and denied interfering in U.S. elections. Rubio said Xi Jinping’s expected September U.S. visit remained on track despite bilateral tensions over trade, technology, critical minerals, and maritime security. Nayan Seth, South China Morning Post, July 21

China, Thailand eye deeper tech cooperation to drive “prosperous shared future.” China and Thailand pledged deeper technology and innovation cooperation after Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s five-day visit to China. The countries agreed to align policies, expand exchanges, and strengthen collaboration in health, geospatial information, agricultural technology, advanced materials, AI, electronics, automobiles, aerospace, and clean energy. Liz Lee and Ryan Woo, Reuters, July 21

China lodges protest with Philippines after latest clash near Second Thomas Shoal. Beijing summoned Philippine ambassador Jaime FlorCruz after a clash near Second Thomas Shoal involving a Chinese coast guard vessel and two Philippine Navy rubber dinghies from the BRP Sierra Madre. China said Philippine personnel rammed its vessel and attacked officers with oars and sticks, while Manila said Chinese coast guards unlawfully approached the grounded ship and injured a serviceman with a wooden baton. Beijing demanded an end to provocations and reaffirmed that Philippine resupply missions must remain under Chinese supervision. Fan Chen, South China Morning Post, July 21

Japan

Poll: Takaichi approval slips to 53% amid doubts on imperial law. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Cabinet approval rating fell to 53%, its first drop into the 50s since she took office, while disapproval rose to 35%. An Asahi Shimbun survey found 60% of voters said the government failed to gain public understanding for Imperial House Law amendments, and 62% opposed keeping women barred from the throne. Respondents also expressed doubts about the administration’s policy process, explanations over alleged social media smears, and response to rising prices. The Asahi Shimbun, July 21

Japan protests Chinese live-fire drill in nearby waters. Japan protested Chinese live-fire drills in its exclusive economic zone southwest of Okinotori Island, saying the activity endangered nearby vessels. China rejected the protest, calling its actions lawful high-seas activity and disputing Japan’s claim to an EEZ around Okinotori, which Beijing describes as a reef. The exercise involved Chinese and Russian vessels and came amid broader tensions over Taiwan, increased China-Russia operations near Japan, and Tokyo’s expanded surveillance and defense posture. Chang-Ran Kim, Nobuhiro Kubo, Hina Suzuki, and John Geddie, Reuters, July 21

JPMorgan, other U.S. banks set to help finance Japan's $550 billion U.S. investment plan, sources say. JPMorgan and other U.S. banks are close to agreeing to provide financing under Japan’s $550 billion U.S. investment pledge, as Japanese lenders remain wary of costly long-term dollar funding. Tokyo has announced more than $100 billion in projects under the scheme but secured only $2.2 billion in financing so far. The plan, tied to a 2025 tariff deal with Donald Trump, includes energy and industrial projects, while Washington has suggested additional candidates. Makiko Yamazaki, Tamiyuki Kihara, Miho Uranaka, and Sumeet Chatterjee, Reuters, July 21

South Korea

National Assembly passes bill extending special counsel probe into ex-President Yoon. South Korea’s National Assembly passed a Democratic Party-led bill extending a comprehensive special counsel investigation into unresolved allegations involving former President Yoon Suk Yeol and former first lady Kim Keon Hee. The measure passed 173-0 after a 24-hour People Power Party filibuster, with opposition lawmakers boycotting the vote. The investigation deadline will move from July 24 to August 23, staffing will rise from 130 to 150 dispatched officials, and the scope will expand to obstruction of audits by public officials. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, July 21

Seoul calls for “no unfair infringement” under new U.S. student visa policy. South Korea asked the U.S. to ensure new limits on international students and foreign journalists do not harm bilateral people-to-people exchanges. Deputy Foreign Minister Park Jong-han raised the issue with U.S. State Department official Jason Evans after Washington announced plans to cap international student stays at four years and foreign journalist I visas at 240 days. Park said immigration policy should not unintentionally damage the rights and interests of South Korean nationals. Choi Kyong-ae, Yonhap News Agency, July 21

South Korea's Lee accused of skirting his own loan curbs with sale of apartment. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung faced criticism after property records showed he extended credit to buyers of his Seoul apartment despite strict mortgage limits central to his housing policy. The buyers could have borrowed only a small share from banks, while Lee and his wife became creditors for nearly two-thirds of the purchase price. Lee’s office said the sale was below market value and the financing reflected buyers’ circumstances. Cynthia Kim, Hyeyoon Cho, and Jack Kim, Reuters, July 21

North Korea

U.S. to extend N. Korea travel ban until Aug. next year: State Dept. The United States will extend its ban on citizens traveling to North Korea for another year, keeping the restriction valid from September 1 to August 31. The State Department cited serious risks of arrest and long-term detention that could endanger U.S. citizens’ physical safety. Under the measure, U.S. passports remain invalid for travel to, in, or through North Korea unless specially validated. The ban was first imposed in 2017 and has been renewed annually. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, July 21

North Korea targets university students in media crackdown. North Korea’s Socialist Patriotic Youth League ordered a special crackdown on banned foreign media during an anti-American class education period running from July 1 to July 27. University students were named the primary target because officials view campuses as a major channel for South Korean films, dramas, and other banned content. Students caught watching or possessing such material face immediate expulsion, labor reeducation, and harsher legal consequences, while inspection squads intensify phone checks, home searches, and monitoring of clothing, hairstyles, and conversations. Park Hee-soo, Daily NK, July 21

North Korea, Russia foreign ministers hold strategic talks in Moscow, KCNA says. North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held their third strategic dialogue in Moscow, focusing on implementing the countries’ comprehensive strategic partnership treaty. Russia backed North Korea’s measures against hostile acts, while Pyongyang reaffirmed support for Moscow’s Ukraine policies. The ministers also discussed high-level visits, cooperation plans, and diplomatic coordination as analysts watched for signs of another Kim Jong Un trip to Russia. Kyu-seok Shim, Reuters, July 20

South Korea probes diplomatic academy hack, eyes possible North Korea link. South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said a significant amount of data may have been exposed in a cyberattack on the Korea National Diplomatic Academy’s online education system. Attackers exploited a zero-day vulnerability and security configuration weaknesses, controlled a server from April or May 2025 until February 2026, and may have accessed training and course administration data. Authorities are examining possible foreign state-backed involvement, including a North Korea link, but lack enough evidence to assign blame. Kyu-seok Shim, Reuters, July 21

Thailand

PM orders action on MoUs with China. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul ordered ministries and agencies to prepare urgent action plans after his China visit produced 15 MoUs covering infrastructure, AI, investment, trade, future industries, education, space, water management, healthcare, and aquaculture exports. Government spokeswoman Rachada Dhnadirek said Xiaomi, ChangAn Automobile, InnoLight Technology, and Eoptolink Technology committed to expand investments in Thailand worth 70 billion baht. Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, July 21

Myanmar

ASEAN chair urged to seek proof of life for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights urged Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., as ASEAN chair, to secure proof of life for detained Myanmar leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi before any further engagement with the junta. The group called for independent access by her family, lawyers, and medical team, and pressed for the unconditional release of political prisoners. ASEAN officials said the regime’s claims about her health require verification. Phoe Tar, The Irrawaddy, July 21

Cambodia

Cambodia rejects Thai claim that UNCLOS case complicated border talks. Cambodia rejected Thailand’s claim that Phnom Penh’s use of UNCLOS compulsory conciliation weakened bilateral trust and complicated land border talks. Cambodian officials said maritime and land boundary issues are handled through separate mechanisms and argued that Thailand forced the move by terminating the 2001 MoU on overlapping maritime claims. Analysts said Thailand may fear legal risks from international proceedings and may be using public criticism to satisfy domestic nationalist audiences while continuing to participate in the process. Teng Yalirozy, Cambodianess, July 21

Philippines

Philippines, China summon each other's envoys over South China Sea incident. The Philippines and China summoned each other’s envoys after a confrontation at Second Thomas Shoal, where Manila said a sailor suffered head injuries and a navy rubber boat was damaged. Beijing accused Philippine personnel of provoking the incident, ramming a Chinese patrol boat, and attacking officers with oars and sticks. Manila rejected China’s account as false and misleading, while China said it allowed transfer of the injured sailor for humanitarian reasons. Beijing Newsroom, Mikhail Flores, and Karen Lema, Reuters, July 21

New Zealand and Philippines form comprehensive partnership. New Zealand and the Philippines formed a comprehensive partnership aimed at turning close ties into concrete cooperation. The agreement will deepen collaboration across political engagement, defense, security, maritime cooperation, trade, economic ties, and people-to-people links, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said on the sidelines of ASEAN meetings in Manila. Alasdair Pal, Reuters, July 21

Philippines’ Marcos names new military chief. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. appointed Antonio Nafarrete as chief of the Philippine armed forces, replacing Romeo Brawner. Nafarrete previously led the Philippine Army and has experience in combat and counterinsurgency operations. He takes command during a military modernization drive focused on external defense and maritime security amid rising South China Sea tensions and expanding security cooperation with the U.S., Japan, Australia, Canada, and European partners. Nestor Corrales, Reuters, July 21

Indonesia

Indonesia cuts budget of president's free meals programme further to $12.8 billion. Indonesia reduced the budget for President Prabowo Subianto’s free meals program to 229 trillion rupiah, or $12.81 billion, from 268 trillion rupiah, with further cuts possible after a review. The program originally targeted 83 million recipients but will reduce beneficiaries as officials emphasize quality and preventing food poisoning. The initiative has faced fiscal concerns, logistical problems, nutrition criticism, mass food poisoning cases, and corruption allegations involving former National Nutrition Agency officials. Ananda Teresia and Gayatri Suroyo, Reuters, July 21

Indonesia parliament passes bill to set up international financial centers. Indonesia’s parliament passed a law enabling international financial centers aimed at attracting foreign investment in banking, wealth management, aircraft leasing, and ship leasing. The law offers incentives including a 50-year corporate income tax holiday for qualifying investors, foreign currency use inside the centers, arbitration, and a special court. The first center could attract up to 500 trillion rupiah, with Bali previously cited as a possible location. Stefanno Sulaiman, Stanley Widianto, and Gayatri Suroyo, Reuters, July 21

Indonesia-EAEU FTA opens US$3 trillion market for local products. Indonesia’s trade minister said ratification of the Indonesia-Eurasian Economic Union Free Trade Agreement will open access to a $3.04 trillion market of 183.7 million people and support exports including palm oil, coffee, textiles, footwear, rubber, fishery products, furniture, electrical machinery, and wood products. EAEU members will cut or eliminate tariffs on 11,882 tariff lines, while Indonesia will reduce tariffs on 10,257 lines, mainly for industrial inputs and raw materials. ANTARA News, July 21

Taiwan

In apparent 1st, PLA chopper crosses Taiwan Strait median line. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry detected a Chinese military helicopter and PLA drone operating on Taiwan’s side of the Taiwan Strait between 10:20 a.m. and 7:40 p.m. Monday. Defense researcher Chieh Chung said it appeared to be the first detected PLA helicopter crossing of the median line. The helicopter also operated for an extended period in Taiwan’s no-fly zone, which Chieh described as a new gray-zone operation that could indicate joint drone and helicopter activity. Matt Yu and Joseph Yeh, Focus Taiwan, July 21

Taiwan to slow mobile internet in civil defense drills as China threat grows. Taiwan will deliberately slow mobile internet speeds during August civil defense drills to test public communication under bandwidth shortages caused by disasters, cyberattacks, blockades, or invasion. Video calls, streaming, and social media images will be unavailable for 30 minutes across northern and central Taiwan, affecting areas with about 70% of the population, while ATMs, traffic signals, and emergency calls will continue operating. Yimou Lee, Reuters, July 21

India

Thousands protest in India after clashes, despite Modi assuring action on exams. Thousands of Cockroach Janta Party supporters protested in Delhi after clashes with police during a march demanding Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation over medical entrance exam paper leaks. Narendra Modi promised strict action and a foolproof exam system, while Delhi Police said nearly 180 people were injured in the unrest. The movement said it would continue protests but avoid another parliament march, as a court allowed activist Sonam Wangchuk to move to a private hospital. Aftab Ahmed, Saurabh Sharma, Francis Mascarenhas, Rajesh Kr Singh, Sakshi Dayal, Shilpa Jamkhandikar, Hritam Mukherjee, Tanvi Mehta, and YP Rajesh, Reuters, July 21

India's “cockroach movement” leaders say minister promises talks on demands. India’s youth-led Cockroach Janta Party said Health Minister J.P. Nadda promised the government would consider its demands after thousands marched toward parliament over examination paper leaks. Police used tear gas and cane charges as protesters demanded Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation, Sonam Wangchuk’s release, and compensation for students who died by suicide after the leak. Protests also took place in Mumbai, Goa, and Bangalore. Aftab Ahmed, Saurabh Sharma, Sakshi Dayal, Hritam Mukherjee, Shilpa Jamkhandikar, Anushree Fadnavis, Bhawika Chhabra, YP Rajesh, and Tanvi Mehta, Reuters, July 20

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan establishes Islamic Finance Council as new banking law takes effect. Uzbekistan’s Central Bank established an Islamic Finance Council to coordinate institutions operating under Islamic financial principles after a new banking law took effect. The council will prepare national standards, issue supervisory recommendations, advise financial institutions, and work with international standard-setters. The five-member body combines Sharia specialists and financial expertise, while new licensing rules require banks to submit compliance policies, internal oversight systems, and business plans before offering Islamic services. Tamila Olzhbaekova, The Times of Central Asia, July 21

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East Asia

The Gulf’s China Problem. Gulf Arab states have lost trust that China will turn trade, energy, and investment connections into regional security commitments. Beijing has refrained from pressuring Iran, safeguarding shipping, or backing Gulf allies during conflicts, prioritizing economic interests over military involvement. While China continues to be a key partner in oil, technology, and investment, Gulf nations now face tougher decisions between depending on Washington, fostering regional cooperation, building defenses, or forming alliances with Turkey and Pakistan for regional security. Mohammed Alsudairi, Andrea Ghiselli, and Aaron Glasserman, Foreign Affairs, July 21

How China weaponised its rare earth monopoly. China has transformed export controls from mere compliance requirements into strategic tools of economic diplomacy, focusing on rare earth elements, essential minerals, advanced technologies, and supply chain vulnerabilities. Its leadership in processing, refining, and magnet manufacturing grants Beijing significant influence over sectors like defense, energy, semiconductors, and manufacturing. Although the U.S., Japan, Australia, and Europe are investing in alternative sources, China’s deeper expertise in downstream operations and regulatory authority allow it to maintain pressure, while other nations need years to develop large-scale substitutes. Chen Jing, ThinkChina, July 21

China’s shadowy maritime militia is worryingly active. China seems to be testing its control over fishing fleets that could support its navy, coastguard, and maritime militia. Over a thousand vessels operated in coordinated lines north of Taiwan, indicating capabilities for surveillance, logistics, cable disruption, shipping obstruction, or blockade efforts. The militia provides plausible deniability in disputed waters and has grown through subsidies, training, and steel-hulled vessels. Increased activity in the East China Sea heightens concerns about a potential Taiwan conflict. The Economist, July 21.

Southeast Asia

When the Indonesian Middle Class Takes to the Streets. Indonesia’s declining middle class correlates with an increase in street protests across provinces. Data from 2015 to 2024 indicate that for each percentage point decrease in the middle class share, there are three more demonstrations. Provinces experiencing declines show thirteen additional protests even after accounting for factors like education, income, urbanization, internet access, year, and location. Ensuring stable jobs, quality public services, institutional trust, and safeguards against downward mobility are crucial for maintaining social stability in middle-income regions. Chatib Basri, Maria Monica Wihardja, Abror Tegar Pradana, FULCRUM, July 21

South Asia

India’s fertiliser dependence leaves its agriculture vulnerable. India’s dependence on imported fertilizers makes agriculture vulnerable to conflicts, shipping disruptions, and price fluctuations. As urea prices rise and Gulf supply lines become risky, imports could surpass 41% of consumption. While shifting some reliance to China and Russia lessens regional concentration, dependence remains. Increasing domestic output via incentives, coal gasification, and balanced investment in nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash can reduce subsidy burden, support farmers, boost crop yields, and combat soil degradation. Biswajit Dhar, East Asia Forum, July 21

Pakistan’s moment has arrived. Pakistan has established itself as a mediator between the United States and Iran by leveraging diplomacy, forming relationships with Washington, maintaining credibility in Tehran, and receiving support from Saudi Arabia. This role led to the development of the Islamabad framework, negotiations in Switzerland, and a sixty-day plan addressing sanctions, nuclear matters, and incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. These developments raise concerns about dependency on Army Chief Asim Munir, potential instability, weaknesses in Pakistan’s democratic system, and whether international powers can accept Pakistan’s current political structure. Imran Khalid, Nikkei Asia, July 21

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China

China and U.S. still in contact on Xi summit trip despite Trump’s election claims. Beijing said China and the U.S. remain in communication about leader-level exchanges later this year despite Donald Trump’s renewed allegations of Chinese election interference. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said head-of-state diplomacy remains central to bilateral ties, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he still expected Xi Jinping’s September visit to proceed. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, July 20

Chinese car sales in Mexico surge despite new tariffs. Chinese-brand vehicle sales in Mexico rose nearly 30% in the first half of the year despite 50% tariffs imposed in January on imports from China and other Asian countries. Distributor data showed Chinese brands reached 17% of new vehicle sales, up from 14% a year earlier. Mexican officials said the figures were distorted by inventories built before the tariffs, while imports fell 43%. Emily Green, Reuters, July 20

China, Philippines trade accusations over South China Sea encounter. China and the Philippines accused each other of provoking a confrontation at Second Thomas Shoal, where Manila said a Chinese Coast Guard member struck a Philippine sailor with a wooden baton and damaged a navy rubber boat. Beijing said Philippine personnel attacked first. The incident occurred as ASEAN ministers gathered in Manila, with South China Sea tensions expected on the agenda. Mikhail Flores, Karen Lema, and Nestor Corrales, Reuters, July 20

Japan

Koizumi calls on Japan to break taboo, debate nuclear weapons. Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi called for a national debate on whether nuclear weapons should play a role in Japan’s defense, saying the issue cannot be avoided as security conditions shift. He cited France’s nuclear buildup and Finland’s openness to nuclear deployment, argued that Japan must discuss policy without taboos, and questioned whether strict adherence to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles still serves national defense ahead of planned security document revisions. Ryo Kiyomiya, The Asahi Shimbun, July 20

China’s heavy rare earth tap stays closed for Japan in June. China exported no gallium, dysprosium, terbium, or yttrium to Japan in June, extending restrictions on critical minerals after a diplomatic rift over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks. Japan’s rare earth magnet industry remains highly dependent on Chinese inputs, and companies have warned that shortages are affecting the broader economy. China’s export controls have become a powerful diplomatic lever, though overall rare earth magnet exports remained strong. Solomon Cefai, Reuters, July 20

South Korea

Questions persist over defense minister’s military service record. Questions over Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back’s military service resurfaced as Ahn and the Defense Ministry denied allegations that he was absent without leave decades ago. Ahn says record discrepancies resulted from administrative errors after he was discharged in January 1985, recalled to complete a shortfall, and discharged again in August. Accuser Kim Young-soo says Ahn left his post, was detained, completed extra service, and gave false testimony. Bahk Eun-ji, The Korea Times, July 20

Top diplomats of S. Korea, U.S., Japan to meet in Manila this week. Foreign Minister Cho Hyun will meet U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi in Manila during ASEAN-related meetings. The three will discuss North Korea, trilateral security and economic cooperation, the Middle East crisis, and other regional and global issues. Cho will also attend ASEAN meetings and hold bilateral talks with counterparts from Australia, Thailand, New Zealand, Brunei, and the Philippines. Oh Seok-min, Yonhap News Agency, July 20

DP seeks extension of special counsel probe into uncovered allegations surrounding ex-President Yoon. South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party introduced a bill to extend a comprehensive special counsel investigation into former President Yoon Suk Yeol, former first lady Kim Keon Hee, and the death of a young Marine. The bill would push the deadline from July 24 to August 23, increase dispatched public officials from 130 to 150, and expand the scope to obstruction of audits by public officials. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, July 20

North Korea

Russia's Putin meets North Korea's top diplomat in Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin met North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui at the Kremlin and thanked North Korea for its support in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Moscow said North Korean troops helped repel Ukraine’s 2024 incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, with about 14,000 soldiers sent under the countries’ mutual defense pact. Choe said Kim Jong-un had reaffirmed his commitment to expanding relations with Russia. Vladimir Soldatkin, Reuters, July 20

Purged military official’s graft case sparks outrage among North Koreans. North Koreans are calling for broader corruption investigations after authorities publicly exposed Pak Hui Chol, a former senior military political official, during a July conference attended by Kim Jong Un. Residents in Hyesan said the case reflects wider anger over bribery, abuse of authority, illicit wealth, and preferential appointments by officials. Many remain skeptical that punishment of one official will change entrenched practices, warning that crackdowns often fade and higher risks may simply raise bribe prices. Lee Chae Eun, Daily NK, July 20

Vietnam

Press release on 14th Party Central Committee’s third plenum. Vietnam’s 14th Party Central Committee opened its third plenum in Hanoi after delegates paid tribute to Ho Chi Minh and fallen soldiers. Party General Secretary and State President To Lam delivered the opening address. The committee reviewed personnel and disciplinary matters, removed Bui Van Hai from all Party positions, and discussed draft rules on prohibited conduct, Party Charter implementation, development model reform, land management policy, and proposed amendments to the Land Law and related laws. Vietnam News, July 20

Thailand

Thailand’s first conscientious objector sentenced to prison. Student activist Netiwit Chtiphatphaisal was sentenced to six months in prison, suspended for one year, for refusing to participate in Thailand’s military conscription process. His case marked the country’s first known conscientious objection claim. The Samut Prakan court rejected his defense after the Constitutional Court ruled compulsory conscription constitutional. Netiwit urged younger generations not to lose hope, saying campaigns for change take time. Bangkok Post, July 20

Opposition readies for censure bid. Opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut said the People’s Party is preparing a no-confidence debate against Thailand’s government when parliament reconvenes. He warned that corruption allegations involving the Interior Ministry, ruling-linked figures, the Senate election collusion case, local civil service recruitment, the emergency loan decree, and civil registration could carry major political consequences. The government’s anti-graft commitment will be judged by results, investigations, and whether powerful figures face accountability. Bangkok Post, July 20

Cambodia

UNCLOS conciliators delay chair appointment in Cambodia-Thailand maritime dispute. Four conciliators in the Cambodia-Thailand maritime dispute requested more time to choose a chairperson before the UNCLOS commission begins reviewing the case. Cambodia and Thailand agreed to the extension, which Cambodia’s Foreign Ministry said would not affect the legal timetable. The process follows Thailand’s withdrawal from the overlapping maritime claims memorandum and a shift to UNCLOS-based conciliation, with both sides appointing maritime law experts to pursue a rules-based settlement. Teng Yalirozy, Cambodianess, July 20

Philippines

Prosecutors win subpoenas for Philippine vice president Duterte's financial records in impeachment case. The Philippine Senate ordered banks and the Anti-Money Laundering Council to produce financial records for Vice President Sara Duterte, her husband, and linked entities in her impeachment trial. The court limited use of the records to establishing a baseline for assets, transactions, and business interests during her current term, and said tax records must comply with confidentiality rules before release. Nestor Corrales, Reuters, July 20

Chinese and Philippine maritime forces clash at Second Thomas Shoal. Chinese and Philippine maritime forces exchanged accusations after a clash near Second Thomas Shoal, where Beijing said Philippine rubber dinghies rammed a Chinese patrol boat and attacked officers with oars and sticks. Manila said Chinese Coast Guard personnel repeatedly struck a Filipino crew member on the head and damaged his boat. The confrontation came as Wang Yi prepared to attend ASEAN meetings in Manila focused partly on South China Sea tensions. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, July 20

Malacañang backs Pax Silica initiative. Malacañang said the government is taking precautions to protect national interests and transparency in the U.S.-initiated Pax Silica project, a 4,000-acre hub in New Clark City for AI, semiconductors, and critical minerals supply chains. Officials said the project will follow Philippine law, avoid community displacement, preserve sovereignty, and meet water and environmental standards. Critics warned of national security, environmental, farming, indigenous community, and foreign-investment concerns. Allen Limos and James Daniel Danio, The Manila Times, July 20

Defense prepared for subpoena ruling, says game plan already in place. Vice President Sara Duterte’s defense team said it had prepared a strategy after the Senate impeachment court decided to subpoena her financial and tax records. Defense spokesman Michael Wesley Poa said the ruling would not unduly delay the proceedings and that the team was ready to proceed with Director Matibag’s presentation. The defense said it had strong legal grounds to oppose the subpoena but respected the court’s authority, while leaving a possible Supreme Court challenge undecided. James Daniel Danio, The Manila Times, July 20

Indonesia

Indonesian, Malaysian air forces conduct joint border patrol. The Indonesian and Malaysian air forces conducted Malindo Siri I 2026, a joint fighter jet patrol over shared maritime border areas, on July 15. Indonesia deployed two F-16 Fighting Falcons from Air Squadron 16, while Malaysia used two F/A-18 Hornets and a third aircraft to document the mission. The Indonesian Air Force said the patrol strengthened airspace security, bilateral cooperation, and territorial sovereignty while following aviation safety protocols. ANTARA News, July 20

Indonesia’s first aircraft carrier Garibaldi due in September 2026. Indonesia’s first aircraft carrier, the Giuseppe Garibaldi, is scheduled to arrive on September 20, 2026, Defense Ministry official Hendrikus Haris Haryanto told lawmakers. The Navy has sent 100 personnel to Italy for technical and practical crew training before the vessel sails to Indonesia. Lampung Naval Base is being prepared as one of the carrier’s home ports, with facility upgrades expected before the military’s October anniversary. ANTARA News, July 20

Indonesian parliament panel gives go-ahead to financial centers plan. An Indonesian parliamentary panel approved key provisions of a bill to create international financial centers aimed at attracting foreign financial investment. The plan could include tax incentives similar to Dubai’s, a 50-year tax holiday for qualifying investors, exemptions for overseas income, value-added tax relief, arbitration arrangements, and a special court. Bali has been discussed as a possible site, while the government estimates potential investment of $16.7 billion to $27.82 billion. Stefanno Sulaiman and Gayatri Suroyo, Reuters, July 20

Singapore

Singapore minister resigns over 'interactions with a woman,' Prime Minister's Office says. Singapore’s Acting Minister-in-charge of Muslim Affairs Faishal Ibrahim resigned from office and the People’s Action Party after interactions with a woman that Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said fell short of standards expected of a political officeholder. The interactions mostly occurred online, with some meetings at public events. Police investigated harassment allegations from both parties and found no criminal offense, but Faishal acknowledged a lapse in judgment and failure to set clearer boundaries. Xinghui Kok, Reuters, July 20

Taiwan

Taiwan says Chinese vessel activity jumps, raising fears for Pacific supply routes. Taiwan reported 55 Chinese government vessel sightings around the island in June, up from 30 in May and 25 a year earlier. Officials said the increase in coast guard and research vessel activity raises concerns that Beijing may be testing ways to disrupt Pacific supply routes. Taiwan plans drills with its navy to protect sea lanes during a blockade or quasi-war scenario. Yimou Lee, Reuters, July 20

India

Indian students cool on “American Dream” as EU opens its doors. Indian students are increasingly considering Europe as tighter U.S., Canadian, and British visa rules, lower European tuition, and an India-EU trade deal reshape study-abroad choices. The agreement offers clearer post-study work routes, easier visa pathways, and improved recognition of Indian qualifications. Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, France, Italy, and the Czech Republic are gaining appeal, though language barriers, housing shortages, and job competition remain concerns. Praveen Paramasivam, Sai B, Charlotte Van Campenhout, Abhirami G, Giselda Vagnoni, Bhanvi Satija, and Saurabh Sharma, Reuters, July 20

Hundreds protest in Delhi demanding statehood for Indian Kashmir. Hundreds of protesters led by Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah demonstrated in Delhi to demand restoration of statehood seven years after Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy was revoked and the region was made a federal territory. Police stopped the protest, while Abdullah described it as the start of a broader struggle for rights and dignity. India’s government says statehood will return at an appropriate time but has set no deadline. Shilpa Jamkhandikar, Reuters, July 20

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan and China launch IBI Digital Economy Hub in Almaty. Kazakhstan and China opened the IBI Digital Economy Hub in Almaty to expand cooperation in digital trade, e-commerce, investment, industry, and cross-border logistics. The platform will support joint projects, market access, technology deployment, and production localization. A related high-tech industrial park is planned over five to eight years, with infrastructure investment estimated at $2 billion and potential annual economic activity above $10 billion. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, July 20

Kyrgyzstan

China launches Beijing-Bishkek flights as Kyrgyzstan-China links grow. Air China launched scheduled Beijing-Bishkek-Beijing passenger flights three times a week as Kyrgyzstan and China expand transport and economic ties. The route began alongside a Kyrgyz-Chinese intergovernmental trade meeting covering logistics, energy, agriculture, industry, and finance. Officials cited major infrastructure projects, including the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, the Bedel border crossing, and the Barskoon-Bedel-Uchturfan-Aksu highway, while bilateral trade reached $27.2 billion in 2025. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, July 20

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East Asia

Why criticism of the Qing dynasty scares the Communist Party. Criticism of the Qing dynasty has gained traction through the “1644 historical view,” which portrays Manchu rule as foreign domination and challenges China’s official timeline of humiliation. The Communist Party fears that this narrative could inflame Han nationalism, strain ethnic relations, and weaken claims to territories incorporated under Qing rule. Authorities have condemned the view, censored discussion, and stalled a Qing history, revealing less space for debate about the past. The Economist, July 20

Why is China a football World Cup no-show? China missed the 2026 World Cup and has one tournament appearance, from 2002, when it lost all matches without a goal. Xi Jinping has backed academies, professional leagues, foreign talent, and a 2050 plan to build a football power. Corruption, weak youth participation, and the complex demands of team sport have blocked progress. China’s women and neighboring Japan and South Korea expose the men’s team’s failure on the global stage. Andrew Scobell, MERICS, July 20

From rule-taker to rule-maker: China’s AI challenge to US dominance. China seeks to shape artificial intelligence ecosystems, standards, and institutions, rejecting rules set by the United States. Beijing promotes open-source models, lower costs, multilateral governance, and the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization to expand global influence, with support concentrated in the Global South. Washington advances Pax Silica with advanced economies. Countries such as Kazakhstan and Indonesia show that governments may join competing frameworks while preserving flexibility and pursuing their interests. Sim Tze Wei, ThinkChina, July 20

How China’s changing the brain-computer interface race. China is advancing brain-computer interface commercialization through semi-invasive systems that balance signal quality with lower surgical risk. The NEO implant has helped paralyzed patients regain hand movement and received market approval, supported by policy targets, financing, trial recruitment, and coordinated regulation. The United States leads in high-precision invasive research, while China pursues medical, rehabilitation, industrial, and consumer uses. Safety, privacy, ethics, hype, and viable applications will shape the competition’s outcome. Liu Sha, ThinkChina, July 20

The Window Before the Workarounds: Why U.S.–China AI Cooperation Can Succeed Where Trade Could Not. U.S.-China AI cooperation remains possible because frontier development is concentrated in a small number of state-linked laboratories, unlike the entrenched networks that weakened tariffs and export controls. Exposure to catastrophic risks creates grounds for notification channels, evaluation standards, and red lines against autonomous nuclear use, weapons design, cyberattacks, and self-directed model improvement. Policymakers must act before laboratory expansion and open-weight models create workarounds that limit oversight and weaken future enforcement. Charlie Andrade, U.S.-China Perception Monitor, July 20

Europe Has to Take on China to Save Free Trade. The European Union has expanded trade agreements that defend rules on tariffs, labor, digital commerce, procurement, and investment. Yet these accords offer limited protection against China’s subsidized export model, market barriers, and manufacturing dominance. US agreements confront Chinese influence through origin rules, investment screening, export controls, and restrictions. Europe should embed safeguards in trade deals, coordinate with partners, cap imports, block transshipment, and press China on currency and state support. Shannon K. O’Neil, Council on Foreign Relations, July 20

Domestic stresses reshaping politics. Taiwan’s 2028 election may place housing, wages, jobs, legislative paralysis, and unequal gains from the technology sector above cross-Strait competition. Trump offers the DPP little political support, while Beijing’s military pressure and influence campaigns weaken KMT claims that closer ties could bring benefits. With Ko Wen-je sidelined, younger voters facing economic strain are available to both camps. Success may favor the party offering credible plans for affordability, opportunity, and governance. Ryan Hass, Taipei Times, July 19

North Korea’s Subdued Signaling Toward China During Treaty Anniversary. North Korea and China marked their defense treaty’s 65th anniversary with reciprocal senior delegations, yet Pyongyang used restrained language and gave limited prominence to the occasion. State media reinforced North Korea’s permanent nuclear status before key meetings, signaling friction with Beijing over denuclearization. Omissions involving blood-forged friendship, Chinese interests, and cooperation suggest that frequent diplomacy and standard expressions of solidarity may overstate the depth of bilateral alignment and mutual trust. Rachel Minyoung Lee, 38 North, July 20

Southeast Asia

Sara Duterte's trial puts Philippine democracy in the dock. Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial tests Philippine institutions and could end her career through removal and permanent disqualification. Charges include bribery, threats, unexplained wealth, and misuse of public funds. Her allies have sought delays, court intervention, and Senate disruption, while prosecutors frame proceedings as democratic accountability. Duterte’s popularity, support, and the Senate’s two-thirds threshold make conviction uncertain. The outcome could shape the 2028 election, foreign policy toward China, and public trust. Richard Heydarian, Nikkei Asia, July 20

Indonesia’s budget squeeze multiplies monetary policy dilemmas. Bank Indonesia raised rates three times in May and June, but the rupiah weakened past Rp18,000 per US dollar while inflation rose. External pressures matter, yet shrinking fiscal space limits monetary choices. Debt service, weak tax revenue, large spending commitments, and refinancing needs raise the cost of tighter policy. Investors question fiscal management, leaving the central bank caught between defending the currency, containing inflation, preserving growth, and sustaining market confidence. Nauli Desdiani, East Asia Forum, July 20

Negeri Sembilan State Polls Will Shape National Politics. The August 1 Negeri Sembilan election could reshape Malaysia’s federal alliances after Pakatan Harapan’s weak Johor result. A royal dispute over Tuanku Muhriz and the Undang institution has divided parties and voters, while narrow margins make rural Malay seats decisive. UMNO and PAS plan cooperation that could produce a state government opposed to the federal PH-BN arrangement. Housing, living costs, transport, farming support, and youth migration will shape voter choices. Tricia Yeoh, FULCRUM, July 20

South Asia

Pakistan Won the War in Iran. Pakistan emerged as a mediator in the Iran war after Field Marshal Asim Munir helped secure a ceasefire and direct talks between Washington and Tehran. Islamabad succeeded because it maintained relationships across rival blocs, possessed coercive leverage through ties with Saudi Arabia, and accepted political risk. Its role reflects a shift toward states such as Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, and Oman that stabilize conflicts when major powers and multilateral institutions fail. Asfandyar Mir, Foreign Affairs, July 20

Central Asia

A New Great Game Is Underway in Central Asia. Central Asia has become a battleground as the United States, China, Europe, Russia, and Gulf states seek access to reserves of manganese, chromium, copper, lithium, and antimony. Western governments aim to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains, while China offers infrastructure, processing, training, and technology transfer. Regional states welcome investment but face poor data, state dominance, environmental risks, and commodity dependence. Outcomes will determine whether mineral wealth supports durable development. Giovanni Legorano, Foreign Policy, July 20

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China

China’s Xi Jinping urges Thailand and Cambodia to settle long-running border dispute. Xi Jinping urged Thailand and Cambodia to resolve their border dispute through dialogue after meeting both countries’ leaders on the sidelines of the World AI Conference in Shanghai. Xi offered China’s constructive role, called for deeper strategic coordination, and pushed cooperation on AI, cross-border crime, rail links, and infrastructure projects. Sylvia Ma, South China Morning Post, July 18

Chinese social media accounts ‘profit from leaking official corruption scandals’. Chinese social media accounts are profiting from coded leaks and hints about corruption investigations before official announcements, creating a grey market around Beijing’s anti-graft campaign. State media said some accounts post resumes, homophones, nicknames, or exaggerated allegations to drive traffic, while legal loopholes make prosecution difficult and undermine official anti-corruption authority. Amber Wang, South China Morning Post, July 18

U.S. party heads to China to examine national security implications of trade relationship. Members of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission are visiting China for the first time since 2019 to examine how trade and economic ties affect national security. The delegation plans meetings with officials, academics, technology industry leaders, U.S. diplomats, and American companies as Congress weighs concerns over AI, biotechnology, robotics, pharmaceuticals, export controls, and sanctions. Xinyi Wu, South China Morning Post, July 19

China calls U.S. visa regulations “discriminatory,” threatens countermeasures. China urged the U.S. to withdraw new visa regulations that Beijing called discriminatory and said it reserved the right to take reciprocal countermeasures. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said China rejected the U.S. decision, which shortens visa durations for foreign students, cultural exchange visitors, and journalists, including a 90-day limit for Chinese journalists. Joe Cash, Reuters, July 17

Rubio expected to discuss Trump-Xi summit in Asia meetings. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Manila for ASEAN-related meetings, where he is expected to meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discuss preparations for a possible September summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The meetings will also address the Iran war, South China Sea tensions, Myanmar, regional scam centers, and U.S. ties with the Philippines. Michael Martina, David Brunnstrom, and Karen Lema, Reuters, July 17

Japan

Defense Minister Koizumi says Japan needs debate on nuclear weapons. Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said Japan cannot avoid debating nuclear weapons as it prepares to revise three key national security documents. He cited harsher security conditions and European moves toward stronger deterrence, while Japan continues to rely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and maintain its three non-nuclear principles. Kyodo News, July 19

Diet passes bills to revise imperial law, penalize flag desecration. Japan’s Diet passed three bills revising the Imperial House Law, criminalizing public desecration of the national flag, and limiting prosecutors’ appeals of retrial decisions. The imperial revision allows female family members to retain status and permits adoption of male descendants from former branch families, while the flag measure drew free-speech concerns during deliberations. The Asahi Shimbun, July 17

Takaichi expected to struggle during an extended Diet session. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration faces a difficult extended Diet session that runs through July 25, with only three effective days left for bill deliberations. The ruling coalition aims to pass the Japan Innovation Party-backed secondary capital bill, while opposition parties plan to resist the measure as self-serving. The Japan Times, July 19

South Korea

Korean parents welcome gov’t move to curb minors’ social media use. South Korea’s media watchdog is considering restrictions on social media accounts for children under 14 and limits on addictive platform features for users under 19. Parents welcomed possible help in reducing excessive scrolling, sleep loss, declining concentration, cyberbullying, and exposure to harmful content, but raised concerns about enforcement, children using parents’ accounts, unclear definitions of social media, and AI character chat services that could draw minors into more immersive online environments. Bahk Eun-ji, The Korea Times, July 17

KAI completes delivery of 6 T-50i trainer jets to Indonesia. Korea Aerospace Industries completed delivery of six additional T-50i advanced trainer jets to Indonesia under a 2021 contract. KAI began deliveries in February and has now supplied Indonesia with 22 T-50 aircraft, following an initial 2011 deal for 16 jets. Indonesia was the first overseas customer for the T-50i and has acquired 42 South Korean-made aircraft, including 20 KT-1 trainers, while also participating in the KF-21 fighter jet development project. Kim Hyun-soo, Yonhap News Agency, July 16

Industry minister to visit U.S. this week for talks on bilateral issues, possibly including Coupang. Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan will visit Washington for the opening of the Korea-U.S. Shipbuilding Partnership Center and talks on bilateral shipbuilding cooperation. Kim may also address U.S. concerns over South Korea’s investigation into Coupang’s data leak, which Washington officials and lawmakers have criticized as potentially discriminatory. Seoul says the probe is proceeding under domestic law, while police found the leak affected nearly 34 million user accounts. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, July 19

North Korea

North Korea calls Seoul a “puppet” for its role in U.S. maritime exercise. North Korea criticized South Korea’s role in the U.S.-led Rim of the Pacific Exercise, calling Seoul a puppet and warning that Washington and Seoul would bear responsibility for any regional escalation. KCNA said the drills reflected widening military cooperation among South Korea, Japan, NATO, and the U.S., while also criticizing a joint Marine Corps exercise involving the USS Essex. Hyeyoon Cho, Reuters, July 17

N. Korean state media confirms FM Choe's Russia visit. North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui departed for Russia at the invitation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, with Pyongyang and Moscow offering no details on the purpose or itinerary. The trip has prompted speculation about preparations for a possible Kim Jong-un visit to Russia, as North Korea deepens cooperation with Moscow while also expanding high-level exchanges with China. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, July 18

Thailand

Activist urges support for amnesty bill. Adul Khiewboriboon urged opponents of Thailand’s Peaceful Society Promotion Bill to accept parliament’s majority decision after the measure passed with 307 votes in favor and 141 against. The Senate removed an amnesty provision for minors charged under Section 112, the lese-majeste law. Adul said the compromise should stand because rejecting the bill would leave more than 6,000 people from all political camps tied up in legal proceedings. Bangkok Post, July 19

China addresses Thai concerns over tank deliveries to Cambodia. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said China addressed Thai concerns over tank deliveries to Cambodia during talks with Xi Jinping in Shanghai. China said the order predated recent fighting, that delivery had been delayed because of the conflict’s sensitivity, and the equipment would not be used to harm Thailand. Xi also offered to facilitate dialogue between Thailand and Cambodia and host a Mekong-Lancang Cooperation meeting to avoid regional unease. The Nation, July 17

Laos

Laos launches cultural association to preserve heritage, build soft power. Laos established the Lao Cultural Values Promotion Association to preserve national heritage and develop culture as a source of soft power, tourism, and economic growth. The association plans to support artists, cultural entrepreneurs, and businesses while seeking cooperation with UNESCO and other partners. Its launch follows government efforts to raise Lao culture’s global profile, including nominations for Larb and the Su Khuan ceremony as UNESCO intangible heritage. Phoudasack Vongsay, The Laotian Times, July 19

Cambodia

UN rights rapporteur Tom Andrews to visit Cambodia, meet border conflict victims. UN Special Rapporteur Tom Andrews will make his first official visit to Cambodia from July 20 to 31 to assess human rights conditions and meet people displaced by the Cambodia-Thailand border conflict. His mission will examine human trafficking, border conflict, freedoms of expression, association, and assembly, and the rights of vulnerable groups, with stops in Phnom Penh, Banteay Meanchey, and Siem Reap. Sao Phal Niseiy, Cambodianess, July 19

Japan grants Cambodia $3 million to build military capacity. Japan pledged about $3 million in Official Security Assistance to Cambodia for communications equipment for the army and patrol boats for the navy. Ambassador Ueno Atsushi and Defense Minister Tea Seiha signed and exchanged notes on the assistance, which Japan said would strengthen Cambodia’s security and deterrence capabilities and support regional peace and stability. Japan earlier provided communications equipment for ASEAN Observer Teams along the Cambodia-Thailand border. Heang Tong, Cambodianess, July 19

Philippines

Impeach court to decide on move to subpoena VP bank records. The Senate impeachment court will decide whether to subpoena Vice President Sara Duterte and Manases Carpio’s bank and tax records after hearing both camps. Senator-judges said the prosecution motion needed further study because not all had read the memoranda. Only senators present will vote, with approval requiring 50 percent plus one. The prosecution says impeachment proceedings allow exceptions to bank secrecy laws. Bernadette E. Tamayo and Reina C. Tolentino, The Manila Times, July 19

Marcos trust rating slips to 34%; Duterte steady at 57%. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s trust rating slipped to 34% in a June Social Weather Stations survey commissioned by the Stratbase Group, extending a decline from 64% in July 2024. Vice President Sara Duterte’s trust rating held at 57%, though distrust toward her rose to 27%. Stratbase said the figures should push Marcos to address prices, jobs, services, accountability, and governance in his State of the Nation Address. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, July 19

Taiwan

U.S. says it is “deeply concerned” by PNG closure of Taiwan office. The U.S. expressed deep concern over Papua New Guinea’s order to close Taiwan’s representative office, calling it part of Beijing’s intimidation campaign. Taiwan said China suppresses it everywhere, while China praised PNG’s decision. The State Department said Taiwan’s global partnerships provide significant benefits and that Beijing’s pressure threatens international peace and prosperity. Ben Blanchard, Renju Jose, and Joe Cash, Reuters, July 17

Democratic Taiwan must not become “China’s Taiwan,” president says. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te urged members of the Democratic Progressive Party to defend the island’s democracy and oppose what he called Beijing’s “red terror.” Lai warned against China’s legal warfare, military threats, disinformation, and diplomatic pressure, saying Taiwan’s future must be decided by its 23 million people and that democracy remains a source of strength. Yi-Chin Lee, Ann Wang, and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, July 19

Duckworth warns China may opt for economic blockade of Taiwan in 2028. U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth warned that China may be more likely to impose an economic blockade on Taiwan in 2028 than launch a full-scale invasion. She said Beijing could require commercial ships in the Taiwan Strait to check in with China’s coast guard under the guise of maritime safety. Duckworth urged continued freedom-of-navigation operations and warned that disruption in the strait would carry major global economic costs. Elaine Hou and Joseph Yeh, Focus Taiwan, July 19

India

India bans march on parliament by “Cockroach” activists, standoff looms. Indian police denied permission for Cockroach Janta Party supporters to march on parliament, citing security restrictions in New Delhi as the monsoon session begins. Activists said the march would proceed despite the ban. The movement has grown around anger over exam paper leaks, youth unemployment, and the hospitalization of hunger-striking activist Sonam Wangchuk, whose wife called his treatment illegal detention. YP Rajesh, Arpan Chaturvedi, Abhijith Ganapavaram, Saurabh Sharma, and Gnaneshwar Rajan, Reuters, July 19

Turkmenistan

Iran says trains resume after reported strike on railway bridge to Turkmenistan. Iran said rail service resumed after a reported U.S. strike damaged the Aq Tekeh Khan bridge on a northern line linking Iran to Turkmenistan. Iranian media said there were no casualties, repairs began immediately, and traffic was restored within 24 hours. The incident raised concerns about Central Asian trade routes that connect Iran with Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, China, Gulf ports, and global markets. The Times of Central Asia, July 17

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan fuel crisis: Bishkek relaxes fuel import rules to ease supply pressures. Kyrgyzstan relaxed fuel import rules until April 1, 2027, allowing road tanker deliveries to ease domestic supply pressure after disruptions to Russian refining. Russia supplies more than 90% of Kyrgyzstan’s imported petroleum products. Bishkek also extended export restrictions on crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products until domestic demand is satisfied or the EAEU’s common petroleum market begins operating. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, July 17

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The Indo-Pacific’s security runs through its rivers. Water stress, sinking deltas, dam construction, groundwater depletion, and disrupted monsoons pose security threats across the Indo-Pacific. Mekong dam operations alter seasonal flows, deepen droughts, and expose downstream farms and fisheries to pressure. Australia and regional partners should place the water, energy, and food nexus within security strategy. Shared data systems, transboundary governance, delta preservation, and climate resilience would strengthen stability, reduce displacement, and support partnerships built on shared benefits. Imran Khalid, East Asia Forum, July 18

East Asia

Shanghai ringfences an offshore bond market. Shanghai’s free trade zone has revived offshore RMB bonds governed by international rules within China’s financial architecture. The ringfenced market restricts issuers and investors to foreign entities or overseas subsidiaries, supports Chinese firms operating across borders, and advances RMB internationalization without dismantling capital controls. Lower funding costs and links to shipping finance offer promise, but liquidity, participation, disclosure, short maturities, and ratings constrain growth and regional competition with Hong Kong. CHINA POLICY, July 17

China’s mysterious new billionaires are conquering the world. China’s new class of billionaires has built fortunes across artificial intelligence, gaming, consumer brands, beverages, and media, with property absent. Their companies pursue foreign markets from inception as weak domestic demand limits growth at home. Founders favor flexible work cultures and avoid public attention. Global expansion brings exposure to policy shifts in China and the United States while Beijing’s scrutiny of wealth encourages discretion among entrepreneurs seeking to protect companies. The Economist, July 19

Beijing Is Trying to Turn Taiwan’s Sea Goddess Into a Chinese Agent. Beijing is using shared Mazu worship to frame Taiwan and China as one cultural family and support unification. Pilgrimages to Meizhou receive subsidized hospitality, political messaging, and follow-up chat groups that can spread election misinformation. Taiwanese temples differ over Meizhou’s religious authority, and many devotees reject political interpretations. Taipei has increased oversight of cross-strait exchanges, warning that trust-based freedoms can become channels for influence operations targeting voters and temple networks. Ashish Valentine, Foreign Policy, July 17

Global Public Opinion on China: China’s Standing in Southeast Asia’s Swing States. Public sentiment toward China across Southeast Asian swing states remains positive but has declined as security concerns offset economic benefits. Trade, investment, tourism, and infrastructure sustain support in Thailand and Singapore. South China Sea confrontations drove downturns in the Philippines and Vietnam. Indonesia and Malaysia contained maritime disputes through diplomacy and enforcement. Views show lower polarization than elite assessments, reflecting a balance between economic opportunity, sovereignty risks, and social concerns. Kevin Zongzhe Li, Asia Society, July 16

U.S.-China Relations Are More Volatile Than Ever. U.S.-China relations face greater danger because Trump and Xi have centralized power, purged experts, weakened institutions, and damaged communication channels. Unclear chains of authority hinder negotiation, while loyalty-based systems reduce policy predictability. Taiwan tensions expose the risk, as contradictory signals and mutual distrust undermine agreements. Stable competition requires competent bureaucracies, credible counterparts, routine communication, and institutional restraint. Without safeguards, personal rule can turn trade, technology, and security disputes into crises. Andrew Scobell and Andrea Ghiselli, Foreign Policy, July 17

Paralysis in Europe’s China policy debate. Europe faces mounting concern over Chinese overcapacity, industrial job losses, and dependence, but political divisions have blocked a common response. Germany lacks agreement on trade defenses, investment screening, localization rules, and retaliation risks. Its postwar model of automobile exports to China and cheap Russian energy has weakened. Europe should build industrial policy and economic security tools before negotiations with Beijing, enabling de-risking that protects strategic capacity without adopting full separation. James Curran, East Asia Forum, July 19

The Iran War Is a Gift to China. China has gained strategic, economic, and reputational advantages from the Iran war without military involvement. Gulf states seek diversified ties, reducing American leverage while expanding regional cooperation with Beijing. China’s diversified energy supplies, oil reserves, electrification, and clean technology dominance softened the shock. Demand for Chinese solar panels, batteries, grids, and electric vehicles may rise, while renminbi settlement expands. American costs, alliance strain, and policy failures make China’s position stronger. Fareed Zakaria, Foreign Policy, July 17.

No longer an island: Japan’s drug pricing has global consequences. Japan’s medicine pricing system cuts reimbursement when successful drugs exceed sales forecasts or gain new uses, weakening returns on innovation. Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro faces another 25 percent reduction despite carrying the lowest G7 price. Because other governments reference Japanese prices, such cuts affect global markets. The system has delayed launches, limited treatment access, and reduced research investment. Japan should review its repricing rules to support patients, innovation, and biopharmaceutical investment. David Ricks, Nikkei Asia, July 17

Japan’s anti-Muslim sentiment turns its sights on mosques. Opposition to mosque construction in Fujisawa reflects growing anti-Muslim sentiment across Japan, fueled by misinformation, xenophobia, and weak national support for local migration governance. Muslim communities have served residents through charity, disaster relief, and cultural exchange, yet mosque and burial projects face organized resistance. Japan needs a coherent immigration policy, legal protections for multicultural coexistence, and stronger resources for municipalities managing religious diversity, integration, and demographic change across Japanese communities. Shinji Kojima and Atsushi Yamagata, East Asia Forum, July 17

North Korea Taps India for Smartphones. North Korean smartphone brand Phurunhanal appears to have sourced its 9-3 handset from India’s Lava International, marking the first identified link between a North Korean phone and a non-Chinese manufacturer. The device matches Lava’s Agni 3 in design and core specifications. North Korean brands import foreign handsets, apply domestic branding, and install localized Android software containing surveillance and censorship controls that restrict users to state-approved content amid growing market competition. Martyn Williams, 38 North, July 17

Southeast Asia

ASEAN Oil Stockpile Ambition: Destined for the Same Old Fate? ASEAN’s renewed proposal for a regional oil stockpile responds to heavy Middle Eastern import dependence and uneven national reserves. Earlier efforts failed because voluntary frameworks, high costs, technical differences, governance concerns, and distrust blocked implementation. The bloc needs a binding mandate, financing plan, working group, and operational roadmap before crisis urgency fades. Ticket systems, partnerships with exporters, or an ASEAN Minus X pilot could reduce costs and bypass consensus barriers. Elbinsar Purba, FULCRUM, July 17

Bangkok voters reward performance over party politics. Bangkok voters returned independent governor Chadchart Sittipunt with a record vote share, rewarding municipal performance over party identity. Improvements to drainage, footpaths, and rubbish collection outweighed allegations and campaign rhetoric. Bhumjaithai’s national victory and the People’s Party’s parliamentary sweep failed to shape the gubernatorial race. The result reflects split-ticket voting, strong personal appeal, and durable local networks, showing that visible service delivery can surpass ideology in contests centered on candidates. Ladawan Khaikham, East Asia Forum, July 18

Temasek’s new blueprint: More America, more AI, less China. Temasek’s portfolio reached S$518 billion after strong Singapore market gains and a shift to mark-to-market accounting. Singapore remains its anchor, while exposure to the Americas has climbed to 26 percent. AI assets account for 6 percent and could reach 15 percent by 2031, spanning models, semiconductors, data centers, energy, and infrastructure. China represents 17 percent of holdings as Temasek adopts selectivity toward biotechnology, robotics, hardware, energy transition, and consumer leaders. Hu Yuanwen, ThinkChina, July 19

Why hosting US and Chinese AI giants is only step one for Singapore. Singapore can convert the arrival of American and Chinese AI firms into lasting gains through local collaboration and capability building. Foreign labs should work with banks, hospitals, manufacturers, and universities while incentives support co-development and publication. Talent policy must cultivate specialists fluent in AI and sector knowledge. Singapore should avoid dependence on one vendor or government through provider diversity, open models, domestic capacity, governance, certification, and research partnerships retaining skills. Lin William Cong, ThinkChina, July 19

South Asia

How India is weathering the energy shock. India limited the Gulf war’s damage by freezing retail fuel prices, cutting excise duties, raising refinery output, and securing sanctions relief for Russian oil purchases. Diversified suppliers, flexible refineries, rail electrification, and ethanol blending reduced vulnerability. The strategy contained inflation, protected consumption, and prevented shortages, but relied on favorable timing and costly fiscal support. Renewed conflict, rising oil prices, and rupee pressure show that India needs preparation for future shocks. The Economist, July 19

Oceania

New Zealand’s naval future with Japan awaits a signature. Japan’s relaxed defense export rules create an opening for New Zealand to purchase Mogami-class frigates and deepen naval cooperation with Japan and Australia. A bilateral Equipment and Technology Transfer Agreement remains essential before any sale can proceed. The Mogami option offers interoperability, alliance integration, and public support, but election uncertainty, ship costs, maintenance capacity, and crew training complicate the decision. Wellington and Tokyo must conclude the agreement before procurement advances. Tadashi Iwami, East Asia Forum, July 17

China

Chinese foreign vice-minister Ma Zhaoxu set for U.S. visit in ‘temperature test’ for Xi. Chinese foreign vice-minister Ma Zhaoxu is expected to visit Washington next week, with a possible stop in Miami, as Beijing and Washington prepare for President Xi Jinping’s expected U.S. visit. Analysts said the trip could test the state of bilateral relations and help lay groundwork for possible leader-level meetings later this year. Dewey Sim, South China Morning Post, July 16

U.S. to toughen up visa regulations for Chinese journalists, foreign students. The Trump administration moved to impose fixed admission periods on foreign students, exchange visitors, and media visa holders, replacing open-ended “duration of status” rules. Most foreign journalists would be limited to 240-day stays, while Chinese journalists would face 90-day limits. Students and exchange visitors would be capped at four years and would need federal approval for extensions. Lucy Quaggin, South China Morning Post, July 16

Senior Chinese and North Korean officials hold talks in Pyongyang, KCNA reports. Chinese official Wang Huning met North Korean Workers’ Party official Jo Yong Won in Pyongyang, continuing high-level exchanges after Xi Jinping’s June visit to North Korea. Wang said Beijing would implement agreements reached by Xi and Kim Jong Un, while Jo said Pyongyang seeks stronger strategic communication and tactical cooperation with China. Heejin Kim, Reuters, July 15

China’s Xi to outline AI diplomacy vision at key Shanghai forum. President Xi Jinping is expected to present China’s global AI governance vision at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, where Beijing will promote open-source AI as a public good and Huawei will unveil a major AI computing cluster built around Ascend processors. The forum comes as China seeks domestic alternatives to U.S. technology and greater influence over AI rules. Laurie Chen, Reuters, July 16

Chinese banks set for $41 million payday from chipmaker’s $8.6 billion IPO. Six Chinese investment banks working on CXMT’s $8.6 billion IPO are expected to receive at least $41 million in fees, a boost for a weakened dealmaking market. The listing would be Asia’s largest this year and China’s biggest A-share semiconductor IPO, reflecting Beijing’s push to finance strategic chip, AI, and robotics companies. Yantoultra Ngui and Kane Wu, Reuters, July 16

Hong Kong police arrest five over 'seditious' books. Hong Kong national security police arrested five booksellers suspected of displaying and selling publications with “seditious” content after customs intercepted an overseas shipment. Police searched two Mong Kok shops and said the books incited hatred against the government, judiciary, and law enforcement agencies, as independent bookstores continue shrinking under national security restrictions. Farah Master and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, July 16

Chinese filing implies DeepSeek valuation of around $52 billion. A filing by Chinese luggage maker Anhui Korrun implied DeepSeek was valued at 350.88 billion yuan, or about $51.82 billion, after a fund it backed invested 2.9 billion yuan for an indirect 0.8265% stake. The filing provides rare public evidence of DeepSeek’s maiden external fundraising as the AI startup raises capital for computing capacity, chips, data centers, and talent. Eduardo Baptista, Reuters, July 16

Japan

Japan to roll out worker benefits to up disposable income in 2029. Japan plans to launch an income-linked benefit system in fiscal 2029 to raise take-home pay for low- and middle-income earners and encourage workforce participation. Benefits will vary by income, include extra payments for families with children 18 or younger, and cover working older adults, though eligibility thresholds, payout amounts, and funding remain undecided. Takao Shinkai, The Asahi Shimbun, July 16

Japan’s lower house passes ruling bloc-sponsored bill for 2nd capital. Japan’s House of Representatives passed a ruling bloc bill to create a “second capital” that could back up Tokyo’s core functions during disasters or emergencies and promote decentralization. The bill would let the prime minister designate a backup capital from prefectural applications, considering population, economic scale, and exposure to disaster risks distinct from Tokyo’s. Kyodo News, July 15

South Korea

Egypt seeks greater S. Korean investment, deeper economic ties: envoy. Egypt is seeking expanded economic cooperation with South Korea and more investment from Korean companies under its Vision 2030 development strategy. Ambassador Hazem Zaki said Egypt offers a large market, infrastructure, free trade links, and access to Africa, the Middle East, and Europe, while the two governments work toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. Oh Seok-min, Yonhap News Agency, July 16

NSC holds meeting to review issues with U.S.: presidential office. South Korea’s National Security Council reviewed trade and security issues with the U.S. during a standing committee meeting chaired by National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac. Wi called for close interagency coordination and an integrated response to bilateral issues, as Washington continues complaints over Seoul’s investigation into a data leak involving Coupang’s South Korean affiliate. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 16

Court rejects arrest warrant for ex-prosecutor general over alleged martial law role. A Seoul court rejected an arrest warrant for former Prosecutor General Shim Woo-jung over alleged involvement in former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed martial law bid, citing insufficient grounds to conclude he might flee or destroy evidence. Shim is suspected of reviewing prosecutor dispatches to a martial law investigation body and denies the allegations. Kim Hyun-soo, Yonhap News Agency, July 16

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets China's Wang Huning. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met Wang Huning, China’s fourth-highest-ranked official, in Pyongyang during a Chinese delegation visit. Both sides pledged to implement agreements reached during Xi Jinping’s June visit, including expanded cooperation in politics, economy, culture, and strategic communication, as Beijing and Pyongyang continue high-level exchanges. Brenda Goh and Hyeyoon Cho, Reuters, July 16

N.K. leader meets with China's top political adviser in Pyongyang. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met Wang Huning, China’s fourth-ranking official, during a Chinese delegation visit marking the 65th anniversary of the bilateral friendship treaty. Kim said the treaty supports both countries’ interests and regional security, while Wang said China would implement leader-level agreements, strengthen political trust, and expand cooperation. Oh Seok-min, Yonhap News Agency, July 16

Thailand

Thai activist group seeks diplomatic protest over Prabowo’s meeting with fugitive ex-PM. Thailand’s NSPRT urged the Foreign Ministry to seek an explanation from Indonesia or file a diplomatic protest after President Prabowo Subianto hosted Thaksin Shinawatra’s sister at a private Jakarta gathering. The group said the reception raised concerns about respect for Thailand’s judiciary and extradition cooperation, though any extradition would require a formal legal process. The Nation, July 16

Myanmar

ASEAN meeting with Myanmar regime’s FM draws Int’l condemnation. Opposition forces, activists, and observers criticized ASEAN foreign ministers for meeting Myanmar’s regime-appointed foreign minister in Bangkok, warning that engagement risks legitimizing the junta. Tin Maung Swe rejected ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus while seeking full participation in the bloc. Justice for Myanmar, ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights, the NUG, KPSN, and SAC-M urged accountability and stronger pressure on the regime. The Irrawaddy, July 16

Myanmar regime continues deadly campaign against civilians amid ASEAN outreach. Myanmar’s regime carried out 10 airstrikes and five arson attacks from July 10 to 14, killing at least 11 civilians, injuring 12 others, and destroying at least 42 homes across Magwe, Sagaing, Karen, Kachin, and Rakhine. The attacks continued around ASEAN’s meeting with the regime’s foreign minister, who rejected the bloc’s Five-Point Consensus and demanded full reintegration. Myo Pyae, The Irrawaddy, July 16

Philippines

Manila to host Rubio, Yi during ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting next week. Manila will host high-level ASEAN meetings from July 19 to 24, with foreign ministers including U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong expected to attend. The meetings will cover regional concerns, ASEAN centrality, energy security, and the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. The Manila Times, July 16

AFP backs DOJ’s new West PH Sea law unit. The Armed Forces of the Philippines backed the Department of Justice’s new maritime law unit for West Philippine Sea legal affairs. AFP spokesman Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad said the unit would centralize expertise on the 2016 Arbitral Award and international maritime law, strengthening the legal basis for actions by the AFP, Coast Guard, BFAR, and other agencies. Izel Abanilla, The Manila Times, July 16

Indonesia

Indonesia, China launch joint shipbuilding technology academy. Indonesia and China launched the Sino-Indonesian Shipbuilding Technology Academy at Diponegoro University to strengthen maritime vocational education. The academy links Indonesian and Chinese universities, companies, and strategic partners to train maritime professionals through academic exchanges, study visits, joint programs, international courses, and industry participation in shipbuilding technology development. ANTARA News, July 16

RI to participate in China’s initiative AI cooperation, WAICO. Indonesia will join the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization as one of its first signatories, with Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto traveling to Shanghai for the declaration. Indonesia expects WAICO participation to support AI governance, digital economy growth, high-technology investment, technology transfer, and partnerships with Chinese companies in AI, telecommunications, and robotics. ANTARA News, July 16

Singapore

Singapore, Brunei reaffirm commitment to strengthening bilateral ties during SM Lee’s visit. Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Brunei’s Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah reaffirmed their commitment to stronger bilateral ties during Lee’s visit for the Sultan’s 80th birthday celebrations. Both sides marked upcoming anniversaries in defense ties and the Currency Interchangeability Agreement, while discussing energy, food security, supply chain resilience, people-to-people exchanges, and youth links through the Young Leaders’ Programme. Samuel Devaraj, The Straits Times, July 16

Taiwan

Papua New Guinea says it will shut Taiwan's rep office, winning praise from China. Papua New Guinea’s foreign minister said the government would immediately close Taiwan’s representative office, a decision praised by China and disputed by Taipei. Taiwan said the move had not been discussed in advance, that its office would continue operating normally, and that it would seek talks while contacting like-minded countries for support. Colleen Howe, Ben Blanchard, and Christine Chen, Reuters, July 16

Taiwan protests PNG decision to close office, vows to reassess ties. Taiwan protested Papua New Guinea’s decision to close its representative office, saying the move was announced without prior negotiation and that the Taipei Economic Office would continue operating. Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it would reassess cooperative projects and economic exchanges with Papua New Guinea before taking further steps, while China said it appreciated PNG’s decision. Yang Yao-ju and Shih Hsiu-chuan, Focus Taiwan, July 16

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan-China rail freight rises 9% to 18.7 million tons in first half of 2026. Kazakhstan-China rail freight reached 18.7 million tons in the first half of 2026, up 9% year on year, as traffic rose in both directions. Kazakhstan imported 7 million tons from China, while shipments to China increased to 11.7 million tons, supported by stronger exports, expanded border infrastructure, and growth at the Dostyk and Altynkol crossings. The Astana Times, July 16

Digital tenge receives official legal status in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s digital tenge will become an official digital form of the national currency on July 18, with the National Bank holding exclusive authority to issue and circulate it. The system is designed to improve transparency in public spending rather than replace cash or cards, with more than 100 pilot projects covering procurement, subsidies, tax administration, and infrastructure financing. The Times of Central Asia, July 16

Kazakhstan and China sign deals worth over $15 billion during Tokayev’s Shanghai visit. Kazakhstan and China signed more than 70 commercial agreements worth over $15 billion during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s Shanghai visit. The package covers AI, digital infrastructure, transport, finance, agriculture, vehicle production, logistics, and robotics, including partnerships with Huawei, Geely, Li Auto, Chery, Kazakhtelecom, and Chinese technology firms. The Times of Central Asia, July 16

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East Asia

The Coming Clash Between China and Europe. Europe faces an industrial challenge from Chinese overcapacity, subsidies, currency advantages, and control of supply chain dependencies. Core sectors including automobiles, machinery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and green energy risk losses. Brussels should protect its market through tariffs, subsidy investigations, procurement rules, security audits, and retaliation planning. Unity among EU members and cooperation with partners are essential. Domestic reform must accompany trade defenses to preserve Europe’s industrial base, prosperity, security, and autonomy. Thorsten Benner, Foreign Affairs, July 16

Japan and ASEAN play the long game on energy and supply chain resilience. Japan’s POWERR Asia initiative uses finance, infrastructure, technology, and industrial cooperation to strengthen energy security and supply chains with ASEAN. Support for Vietnam’s Nghi Son Refinery marks an opening step. The framework covers oil, LNG, biofuels, solar power, nuclear energy, and critical minerals. Its gradual, partner-sensitive model may lack crisis speed, but it can expand diversification, policy autonomy, and long-term resilience while deepening Japan-ASEAN economic ties across Southeast Asian markets. Minoru Nogimori, East Asia Forum, July 16

Is North Korea Pursuing a “Juche-Oriented” Nuclear Triad? North Korea is building nuclear delivery options across land, sea, and air, but road-mobile missiles will remain the core of its force. Naval capabilities face submarine noise, limited missile range, high costs, and alliance targeting. Air Force missions rely on ground-launched cruise missiles and lack an intercontinental path. Diversification can improve survivability and theater reach, yet a balanced triad comparable to major nuclear powers remains beyond Pyongyang’s present industrial capabilities. Vann H. Van Diepen, 38 North, July 16

A Divided World Is North Korea’s Greatest Asset. North Korea has gained room to expand its nuclear and missile programs as strategic rivalry weakens sanctions enforcement. China and Russia prioritize competition with the United States and wartime cooperation over collective pressure. Trade, arms sales, petroleum shipments, cybertheft, and financial links sustain Pyongyang’s economy and military growth. Sanctions still impose costs, but denuclearization through isolation is no longer credible. Diplomacy, arms control, freezes, and risk reduction offer more practical goals. Donggak Heo, Foreign Policy, July 16

Southeast Asia

The Grey Capital Malaise Infecting Thailand. Chinese-linked grey capital is reshaping mainland Southeast Asia through criminal zones, scam networks, money laundering, and political capture. Thailand faces growing exposure as illicit funds support the baht, pass through mule accounts, corrupt officials, secure citizenship, and distort procurement. Weak prosecutions and elite impunity allow transnational actors to penetrate police, Parliament, political parties, and state agencies. The spread threatens sovereignty, institutional capacity, and Thailand’s resilience against regional criminal economies and networks. Gregory Raymond, FULCRUM, July 16

South Asia

From celebrity fandom to government in Tamil Nadu. Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar’s TVK transformed fifteen years of fan-club welfare work into a breakthrough election victory in Tamil Nadu. Youth mobilization, social media, local organization, and material pledges helped displace the state’s dominant parties. Early decisions, including creation of an AI ministry and withdrawal of an astrologer appointment after backlash, show responsiveness to scrutiny. TVK’s future will test whether celebrity-based political energy can support delivery-focused government and challenge patronage politics. Arun Nagore Jayaraman Shyam, East Asia Forum, July 16

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China

Global views of China and Xi improve as perceptions of U.S. decline, Pew survey finds. A Pew Research Centre survey found China’s global image has rebounded from pandemic-era lows while views of the U.S. have weakened. Across 20 consistently surveyed countries, China averaged 46% favorability compared with 36% for the U.S. Concerns over China’s territorial disputes remain high in Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Australia. Han Li, South China Morning Post, July 15

EU accuses China of seeking to reshape global order in stark new strategy paper. The European Union adopted a strategy paper accusing China and Russia of trying to reshape the global order and revive sphere-of-influence politics. The document describes Beijing as a key and crucial enabler of Russia’s war in Ukraine, warns of China’s leverage over trade, raw materials, and technology, and identifies Taiwan Strait changes as a major security risk. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, July 15

Trump intelligence pick to play ‘helpful’ role in agreeing economic strategy with China. Jay Clayton, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for director of national intelligence, told senators he could help shape economic strategy toward China. Clayton identified China, Russia, and Iran as traditional adversaries while saying Washington still cooperates economically with Beijing. Lawmakers pressed him on China’s geopolitical importance, intelligence priorities, and his financial-markets background. Lucy Quaggin, South China Morning Post, July 15

U.S. hardens AI stance on China as Anthropic calls for extending lead. Washington is moving to strengthen AI policy toward China as lawmakers prepare export-control bills and the White House coordinates cybersecurity work with U.S. AI firms. Anthropic’s Tarun Chhabra said the U.S. holds a six-to-nine-month frontier AI lead and accused Chinese labs of using unauthorized model distillation to replicate American advances. Nayan Seth and Vincent Chow, South China Morning Post, July 15

China's DeepSeek to raise fresh capital at $74 billion valuation ahead of onshore IPO, sources say. DeepSeek plans a new fundraising round at a valuation of about 500 billion yuan, or $74 billion, ahead of a possible Shanghai STAR Market IPO. The company may raise up to 50 billion yuan after securing about $7.4 billion in June, reflecting investor demand and rising costs for computing power, data centers, talent, and AI chip development. Reuters, July 15

Japan

Germany’s Merz mulling Japan visit in late Oct. with security on agenda. Germany and Japan are arranging Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s first visit to Japan as leader in late October for talks with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The discussions are expected to cover drone development and deeper defense cooperation as both countries weigh risks from Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Middle East conflict, China’s assertiveness, and North Korea. KYODO NEWS, Kyodo News, July 15

As Japan’s security ties grow, defense chief pushes for international bureau. Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said he will seek a new Defense Ministry bureau focused on international cooperation as Japan expands security ties with like-minded nations. Koizumi said the ministry’s current system is under strain and has exceeded its limits as responsibilities grow in an increasingly difficult regional security environment. Jesse Johnson, The Japan Times, July 15

South Korea

Ambassador Kang's trip home aimed at gathering input on improving ties with Washington: presidential office. South Korean Ambassador to the U.S. Kang Kyung-wha returned to Seoul for consultations on improving relations with Washington, the presidential office said. Kang will brief the foreign minister and meet officials from Cheong Wa Dae and other ministries, while speculation grew that urgent bilateral issues may include Washington’s concerns over Seoul’s investigation into Coupang’s data leak. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 15

North Korea

China's Wang Huning meets a top North Korean official in Pyongyang, KCNA reports. Chinese Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Huning met North Korean Workers’ Party official Jo Yong Won in Pyongyang after arriving with a Chinese delegation. Wang affirmed Beijing’s intent to implement agreements reached by Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un, while Jo said North Korea seeks stronger strategic communication and tactical cooperation with China. Heejin Kim, Reuters, July 15

North Korea orders cabinet: take China’s cash, not its culture. North Korea ordered cabinet officials to separate economic gains from ideological control as ties with China warm after Xi Jinping’s visit. The directive urged flexible treatment of Chinese investors, trade procedures, and customs clearance to bolster foreign currency reserves, while tightening enforcement against Chinese cultural influence, unauthorized recordings, and rumors that Chinese media would no longer be punished. Yoon HyeSeong, Daily NK, July 15

N. Korea's women's union stresses ideological education at 1st congress in 5 years. North Korea’s Socialist Women’s Union held its first congress in five years in Pyongyang, stressing ideological education and regime unity. The ruling Workers’ Party urged members to reject capitalist ideology and defend socialist culture, while setting patriotic, class, and moral education as key tasks for the next five years. Kim Hyun-soo, Yonhap News Agency, July 15

Thailand

Senators blast People’s Party for ‘false’ poll claims. Thai senators accused the opposition People’s Party of misleading the public with claims about fraud in the 2024 Senate election and urged the Election Commission to examine whether list-MP Parit Wacharasindhu unlawfully disclosed evidence. The party said the election involved organized recruitment, payments, and inducements, while senators said the allegations damaged the chamber before any legal ruling. Arthit Khwankhom, Bangkok Post, July 15

Myanmar

Opposing sides in Myanmar conflict open to dialogue, Thai foreign minister says. ASEAN’s Myanmar envoy held separate talks with military-backed negotiators and rebel groups, with all sides recognizing that no military solution serves their interests, Thailand’s foreign minister said. Thailand is prepared to facilitate future talks and provide a venue, while ASEAN continues seeking progress under its Five-Point Consensus and hopes to meet detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Reuters, July 15

Philippines

Senate least trusted govt agency, new survey says. The Senate ranked as the least trusted and least approved government institution in PUBLiCUS Asia’s second-quarter Pahayag survey, with 21% approval and 12% trust. Tesda led government agencies with 63% approval and 45% trust, while opposition senators Bam Aquino, Francis Pangilinan, and Risa Hontiveros topped favorability rankings. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, July 15

Defense leaves Duterte’s alleged sub judice violation to Senate impeachment court. Vice President Sara Duterte’s defense team said the Senate impeachment court should decide whether her statement on the trial violated the sub judice rule. Duterte had argued that the impeachment complaint over an alleged assassination plot lacked evidence, while defense spokesman Michael Poa declined to comment on the possible rule violation. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, July 15

Indonesia

Indonesia grants visa-free entry to Kazakhstan citizens to boost tourism, investment. Indonesia granted visa-free entry to Kazakh citizens starting July 9 under a reciprocal arrangement intended to strengthen tourism, trade, investment, and bilateral relations. Ambassador Fadjroel Rachman said the policy could help double trade to about $2 billion within three to five years, while officials cited security, reciprocity, tourism, and economic potential in approving the move. Grace el Dora, Jakarta Globe, July 15

Attorney general proposes successor to suspended graft prosecutor Febrie Adriansyah. Attorney General Sanitiar Burhanuddin nominated senior prosecutor Kuntadi to replace Febrie Adriansyah as deputy attorney general for special crimes, pending President Prabowo Subianto’s approval. Kuntadi, head of the Asset Recovery Agency, is the sole nominee. Febrie was named a corruption suspect after police searches seized gold bullion and cash allegedly linked to cases he had overseen. Ilham Oktafian, Jakarta Globe, July 15

Singapore

Both sides to ensure smooth transition when S’pore takes over from Philippines as ASEAN chair: PM Wong. Singapore and the Philippines will work to ensure a smooth ASEAN chairmanship transition in 2027, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said after meeting President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in Singapore. Wong said the countries will continue strengthening ASEAN unity and resilience while deepening cooperation in AI, the green and digital economies, renewable energy, healthcare, and people-to-people ties. Anjali Raguraman, The Straits Times, July 15

Taiwan

TSMC's second-quarter profit seen hitting record on AI boom. TSMC is expected to report a fifth straight quarter of record earnings, with April-June net profit projected to rise 59% on strong AI infrastructure demand. Analysts cited continued demand for 3-nanometer and 2-nanometer processes and CoWoS packaging, while investors will watch for updated revenue guidance and possible higher capital spending. Wen-Yee Lee and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, July 15

India

Files relating to India’s largest nuclear power plant Kudankulam exposed in data breach. Ransomware group World Leaks posted files linked to India’s Kudankulam nuclear plant, including purported blueprints, supplier details, inspection records, equipment reviews, and insurance policies. Reliance Group confirmed a partial breach involving a third-party data center server and said the government was informed. Researchers warned the files could expose support systems, suppliers, and security-chain weaknesses. Munsif Vengattil and Aditya Kalra, Reuters, July 15

Nepal

Nepal court jails 2 former ministers, 14 others over refugee scam. A Kathmandu court sentenced former Deputy Prime Minister Top Bahadur Rayamajhi to four years in prison and former Home Minister Bal Krishna Khand to two years over forged documents used to present Nepali nationals as Bhutanese refugees for U.S. resettlement. Fourteen others, including a former senior bureaucrat and refugee leader, also received prison terms. Gopal Sharma, Reuters, July 15

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan allocates $73 million for August Kurultai elections. Kazakhstan allocated 34.3 billion tenge, about $73 million, from the government reserve to finance August 23 elections for the new Kurultai unicameral parliament. The vote follows a new Constitution that replaced the bicameral legislature. Election spending will cover more than 70,000 officials, 10,674 polling stations, ballots, equipment, voter materials, public information, and 47 new polling sites. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, July 15

Tajikistan

Tajikistan develops gender equality strategy and expands support for women. Tajikistan is developing a 2027–2036 gender equality strategy with UNICEF support while expanding programs for women’s economic participation. The plan aims to address social norms limiting opportunities, increase women’s roles in public life, and support families, alongside presidential grants for women entrepreneurs. Violence against women remains a major challenge, with more than 2,500 criminal cases opened over five years. The Times of Central Asia, July 15

Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan builds ties with Southeast Asia. Turkmenistan is expanding engagement with Southeast Asia through ASEAN talks and new energy and tourism initiatives with Malaysia. Deputy Foreign Minister Ahmet Gurbanov met ASEAN and Indonesian officials in Jakarta to discuss cooperation in trade, transport, energy, education, and tourism, while Petronas plans drilling work at Turkmen gas blocks and travel between Turkmenistan and Malaysia continues to grow. The Times of Central Asia, July 15

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East Asia

A New Law Heralds China’s Fraught Ethnic Future. China’s new ethnic unity law gives Xi Jinping’s assimilation program top legislative status and makes integration a duty across the party-state. It strengthens Mandarin instruction, propaganda, migration, tourism, and interregional development while encouraging citizens to report conduct deemed harmful to unity. The measure reduces space for minority languages, religion, culture, and autonomy. It may deepen grievances, burden officials, and intensify disputes without resolving inequality, discrimination, separatist fears, or bureaucratic failures. Aaron Glasserman, Foreign Policy, July 15

China Is Sabotaging the World That Enables Its Rise. China’s rise depends on Western markets, technology, and institutions, yet Beijing’s pursuit of industrial dominance is provoking protectionism and supply chain diversification. Export-led growth, weak household consumption, and excess production deepen reliance on foreign demand while straining Europe and the United States. Continued resistance could force China to raise household income, reduce investment dependence, and rebalance growth. Failure to adjust risks trade conflict, global fragmentation, and damage to China’s prosperity. Enrico Fardella and Sergey Radchenko, Foreign Affairs, July 15

How geopolitics rewired China’s economy. China’s economy is shifting toward advanced manufacturing, technology, and higher-value exports as geopolitical pressure and industrial policy reshape investment. Restrictions from the United States have pushed resources into semiconductors, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and equipment production. Export markets have expanded across emerging economies, while improved bilateral communication has eased uncertainty. Property weakness, fragile consumption, and uneven gains remain major constraints. Policymakers must spread innovation benefits across firms, workers, and households. Gu Qingyang, ThinkChina, July 15

China’s trade gap is narrowing. And other surprises. China’s economy grew 4.3 percent in the second quarter, its weakest pace since 2022, despite strong goods exports. Imports outpaced exports in June, narrowing the trade surplus as chip prices increased. Tax collection has climbed through inflation, enforcement, and stock trading, causing the budget deficit to shrink. Spending favors pensions, unemployment support, poverty relief, and jobs over infrastructure. China faces cooling growth, weak demand, population aging, and greater fiscal strain. The Economist, July 15

One Taiwan, two speeds: The winners and losers of the AI boom. Taiwan’s AI boom has lifted growth, exports, and stocks through its chip manufacturing and server supply chain. Gains remain concentrated in technology firms and investors, while traditional industries, service workers, and young professionals face lower wages and insecurity. Heavy borrowing has raised market risk. Competition from China, overseas production demands, and cross-strait tensions threaten Taiwan’s edge. Broader adoption of AI could spread benefits, but inequality may persist across sectors and households. Lai Oi Lai, ThinkChina, July 15

Consolidating Kim’s Rule: Constitutional Revisions, Ideological Reinforcement, and Elite Management. North Korea’s revised constitution elevates Kim Jong Un above institutions, expands his appointment and veto powers, and removes limits on his authority. New ideological language demands obedience to his leadership while reducing references to Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. Memorial events, cadre training, and reshuffles reinforce loyalty and discipline. Jo Yong Won’s return to the Organization and Guidance Department signals Kim’s reliance on loyalists to control Party affairs. Gyeong Seob Oh, 38 North, July 15

More Than Smartphones: How Digital Technology Is Changing North Korea. Smartphones and services are reshaping daily life in North Korea. Electronic wallets now support retail purchases, transport, food delivery, entertainment, and foreign currency balances, giving users convenience while expanding state monitoring and tax collection. Legal scholars are examining electronic evidence, contracts, authentication, and digital government as courts confront records. State television’s advice on screen-related eye strain shows that longer smartphone and computer use has created health concerns tied to digitization. Martyn Williams, 38 North, July 15

Southeast Asia

New US Tariffs on Thailand: The Need for Market Diversification. The United States plans a 12.5 percent tariff on Thai goods after finding that Thailand lacks a legal ban on imports made with forced labor. Exemptions cover 60 percent of Thai exports to the United States, limiting the overall impact. Plastics, rubber, food products, vehicles, aircraft, vessels, and base metals face greater exposure. Thailand has little chance of avoiding the levy and should diversify export markets by industry and product. Juthathip Jongwanich and Archanun Kohpaiboon, FULCRUM, July 15

Oceania

Pacific island states can pioneer maritime decarbonisation. Pacific island states can cut shipping emissions by electrifying domestic fleets, where governments control vessels and energy systems. Short routes, fixed schedules, and frequent port calls suit battery ferries and swap systems. Progress requires renewable grids, charging infrastructure, and storage that supports power reliability. Deep-sea shipping faces fuel and engineering limits, leaving island governments with less influence. Papua New Guinea’s plans show a path toward cleaner transport and energy independence. Anthony Wiskich, East Asia Forum, July 15

The changing face of Japanese migration to Australia. Contemporary Japanese migration to Australia reflects economic insecurity, career limits, and diverse identities beyond older affluent expatriate and lifestyle patterns. Younger migrants seek higher wages and opportunity but can face occupational downgrading, temporary work, and weak recognition of Japanese credentials. Post-Fukushima families have struggled to build stable careers. Dispersed communities sustain ties through schools, associations, families, restaurants, and digital networks, revealing migration shaped by aspiration, risk, belonging, and social change. Iori Hamada, East Asia Forum, July 15.

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China

China does not seek 'sphere of influence' in ties with Pacific island nations, foreign minister says. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Solomon Islands counterpart Rick Houenipwela that Beijing does not seek a sphere of influence in the Pacific and that cooperation comes without political conditions. The remarks followed regional criticism of China’s South Pacific missile test and coincided with pledges to expand cooperation with Solomon Islands in green energy, healthcare, and climate change. Reuters, July 14

Nvidia halves Asia buyer list in China chip crackdown. Nvidia has cut by more than half the number of Asian customers authorized to buy its AI chips after tougher compliance checks in Singapore, Malaysia, and Japan. The new white list aims to prevent chips from reaching China through third countries, with Nvidia staff inspecting data centers, verifying contracts, and interviewing end users amid U.S. pressure to close export-control loopholes. Zijing Wu, Michael Acton, and Demetri Sevastopulo, Financial Times, July 14

China purges third Politburo member in deepening anti-graft drive. Ma Xingrui was expelled from China’s Communist Party on corruption charges, becoming the third sitting Politburo member purged since 2025. Investigators accused him of arranging jobs, accepting gifts, helping relatives buy property below market value, trading power for money and sex, and enabling “family corruption,” marking another escalation in Xi Jinping’s years-long anti-graft campaign. Reuters, July 14

EU signals emergency import curbs after dramatic growth in Chinese trade gap. The European Union signaled possible case-by-case tariffs and quotas to counter a surge in Chinese imports after China’s trade surplus with the bloc grew 23.7% in the first half of the year. EU trade official Denis Redonnet said Brussels would pursue talks with Beijing while preparing protective measures to avoid deeper dependencies or an unnecessary trade war. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, July 14

U.S. must act quickly to counter China’s growing tech progress, lawmakers told. Analysts told U.S. lawmakers that Washington must slow China’s technological momentum while accelerating American advances in AI, quantum, drones, semiconductors, and standards-setting. Witnesses said China’s state-directed model has produced major gains despite inefficiencies, while U.S. permitting delays, bureaucracy, and inconsistent policy have weakened competitiveness. Mark Magnier, South China Morning Post, July 14

Japan

Takaichi Cabinet retains high approval ratings despite challenges. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Cabinet retained strong public support despite opposition questioning and a turbulent final stretch in parliament. NHK polling showed approval slipping from 59% in March to 58% in July, while JNN recorded a decline from 71.8% to 65.9% as the 150-day parliamentary session neared its July 17 end. Kenji Yoshida, The Japan Times, July 14

Prime Minister’s Office to lead intelligence efforts in Japan. Japan plans to establish a national intelligence council as early as this month to strengthen government control over intelligence gathering and analysis. The council, chaired by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, will improve coordination across agencies, while the government also considers countermeasures against foreign espionage and expanded training for intelligence personnel despite human rights concerns. The Japan Times, July 14

Japan hastily redraws AI strategy amid security fears. Japan approved a rushed revision of its national AI strategy to strengthen “AI sovereignty” and reduce dependence on specific countries or companies. The plan calls for reviewing AI laws, expanding foreign-agency cooperation, countering cybersecurity risks from powerful models, and promoting AI Transformation, with strategic focus on vertical AI in medicine and industry and physical AI in robotics and autonomous driving. Nami Sugiura, The Asahi Shimbun, July 14

South Korea

South Korea forecasts 2026 economic growth at 5-year high on AI chip boom. South Korea raised its 2026 growth forecast to 3.0%, the strongest since 2021, as booming semiconductor exports lift the economy. The finance ministry will fast-track three megaprojects covering semiconductors, AI data centers, and physical AI, while targeting higher potential growth, top-four exporter status, and gross national income per capita of $50,000. Jihoon Lee, Reuters, July 14

S. Korean FM to visit Philippines for ASEAN-related ministerial meetings. Foreign Minister Cho Hyun will visit the Philippines from July 22 for ASEAN-related meetings, including the ASEAN–Republic of Korea, ASEAN Plus Three, ASEAN Regional Forum, and East Asia Summit foreign ministers’ meetings. Cho will seek stronger cooperation on AI, cultural and creative industries, supply-chain resilience, energy, food security, and ASEAN support for Seoul’s Korean Peninsula policy. Oh Seok-min, Yonhap News Agency, July 14

Special counsel asks top court to postpone final ruling on ex-first lady in free opinion polls case. Special counsel Min Joong-ki’s team asked South Korea’s Supreme Court to postpone its ruling on former first lady Kim Keon Hee’s free opinion polls case so it can submit additional arguments after former President Yoon Suk Yeol was convicted on related charges. Kim was acquitted by an appellate court, and the special counsel has appealed. Kim Seong-hun, Yonhap News Agency, July 14

North Korea

China’s No 4 official Wang Huning to head to North Korea as visits multiply. Wang Huning will lead a Chinese party and government delegation to North Korea for an official goodwill visit, extending a series of high-level exchanges between Beijing and Pyongyang. Analysts said the trip shows both sides are deepening strategic ties and turning recent leader-level consensus into more regular party-to-party communication and cooperation. Dewey Sim, South China Morning Post, July 14

Vietnam

Vietnam, Indonesia chart new strategic cooperation agenda. Vietnam and Indonesia signed a 2026–2030 action plan to implement their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership during Foreign Minister Le Hoai Trung’s visit to Jakarta. The two sides agreed to deepen cooperation in defense, security, trade, investment, agriculture, fisheries, education, tourism, innovation, energy, cross-border payments, semiconductors, electric vehicles, and the Halal industry, while coordinating on ASEAN and East Sea issues. VNA/VNS, Vietnam News, July 14

Thailand

PM Anutin pledges closer cooperation with BMA. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul pledged closer cooperation with the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration on transport, public safety, urban development, and environmental management. Planned initiatives include lower electric train and bus fares, a common ticketing system, better transport links, use of underutilized state land for public spaces, flood prevention, air pollution controls, and improved utilities. Supoj Wancharoen, Bangkok Post, July 14

Myanmar

ASEAN envoy meets Myanmar opposition groups in Thailand. ASEAN special envoy Maria Theresa Lazaro met ethnic minority rebel representatives and Myanmar’s military-backed negotiation committee in Thailand to discuss an inclusive national political dialogue. The talks followed ASEAN foreign ministers’ first face-to-face meeting with Myanmar’s counterpart since the 2021 coup. The National Unity Government said it was not invited and questioned whether the process served ASEAN’s peace plan. Reuters, July 14

Myanmar regime rejects ASEAN peace plan, pushes for full reinstatement. Myanmar’s military regime rejected ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus and demanded restoration of full and equal participation in the bloc. Junta Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe told ASEAN counterparts that Myanmar would cooperate only “to the possible extent,” while ASEAN ministers maintained that the consensus remains the roadmap for addressing the crisis despite the regime’s push for normalization. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, July 14

Cambodia

Japan grants $120m for deep-sea port. Japan granted about $120 million for Phase II of container terminal development at Sihanoukville Autonomous Port, Cambodia’s only international deep-sea port. Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn and Japanese Ambassador Ueno Atsushi signed the documents on July 13. The project will expand container cargo handling, improve logistics, and allow vessels to dock without water depth constraints. Meng Seavmey, Cambodianess, July 14

Philippines

Duterte says no evidence backs impeachment case against her. Vice President Sara Duterte said the impeachment complaint against her lacks evidence and that the rule of law depends on facts, not “fiction.” She accused the prosecution of inventing threats, fabricating evidence, and relying on unsupported allegations. Her defense team appointed Justin Nicol Gular as deputy spokesman and continued cross-examining NBI regional director Jeremy Lotoc. Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, July 14

Marcos leaves for Singapore for talks with Wong, business leaders. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. left for Singapore for a working visit focused on strengthening bilateral ties. Marcos will meet Prime Minister Lawrence Wong to discuss trade, investment, the environment, health, regional stability, and ASEAN centrality. He will also join a Milken Institute roundtable with business leaders following the Philippines’ recognition as an upper-middle-income country. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, July 14

House prosecutor rebuts VP Duterte’s claim impeachment case lacks evidence. House prosecutor Renee Co rejected Vice President Sara Duterte’s claim that the impeachment case lacks evidence, saying the Senate proceedings have shown evidence that remains unchallenged. Co said the defense has not disputed the existence or authenticity of the video presented by prosecutors and emphasized that the complaint also includes constitutional violations, betrayal of public trust, and other high crimes. James Daniel Danio, The Manila Times, July 14

Indonesia

Indonesia urges U.S., Iran to respect Islamabad Memorandum. Indonesia urged the U.S. and Iran to respect the Islamabad Memorandum and immediately halt hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Minister Sugiono said Gulf stability is a direct Indonesian interest because prolonged conflict would bring immediate economic consequences for the public, while reaffirming Jakarta’s position in favor of peace, stability, and an end to attacks. ANTARA News, July 14

Iran invites Indonesia’s President to visit Tehran: MPR speaker. Iran invited President Prabowo Subianto to visit Tehran, according to MPR Speaker Ahmad Muzani, who relayed the message after attending former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral in Mashhad as a special envoy. Muzani said he had informed Prabowo of the invitation but did not know whether the president had responded. ANTARA News, July 14

Malaysia

Malaysia says it is investigating tech commune run by ex-Coinbase executive. Malaysia’s Home Affairs Ministry is investigating a digital nomad co-living community founded by former Coinbase technology chief Balaji Srinivasan after claims that it hosted Israelis in violation of immigration laws. Authorities will examine residents’ identities, nationalities, travel documents, entry purposes, local licenses, building use, and business activities tied to the Network School in Johor’s Forest City. Rozanna Latiff, Reuters, July 14

Singapore

Singapore court orders Bloomberg, reporter, to pay $356,000 for defaming ministers. Singapore’s High Court ordered Bloomberg News and reporter Low De Wei to pay S$460,000 in damages after finding that a December 2024 article defamed Home Affairs Minister K Shanmugam and Manpower Minister Tan See Leng. Bloomberg said it was disappointed, stood by its reporting, and argued that the story was accurate and served the public interest. Xinghui Kok and Jun Yuan Yong, Reuters, July 14

Taiwan

Lithuania's new PM says allowing Taiwan's de-facto embassy was 'maybe too brave'. Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevicius said the 2021 decision to allow Taiwan to open a “Taiwanese” representative office was “maybe too brave” as he sought to repair relations with China. His government aims to restore ambassador-level ties, though Sinkevicius said the relationship could be improved without changing Taiwan’s representation. Andrius Sytas, Reuters, July 14

TPP delegation begins 1st official China visit since party's founding. A Taiwan People’s Party delegation led by Lee Wei-hwa began a four-day visit to Shanghai, marking the party’s first official exchange trip to China since its founding in 2019. Lee said the trip aims to foster goodwill and dialogue, with visits to economic and historical sites, technology companies, youth entrepreneurship hubs, and Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Wu Jui-chi and Evelyn Kao, Focus Taiwan, July 14

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan’s GDP growth tops 4% in first half of 2026 despite lower oil output. Kazakhstan’s economy grew 4.1% in the first half of 2026 despite an 8.4% decline in oil production, with non-oil sectors expanding more than 5%. Manufacturing, construction, trade, and transport generated more than 80% of GDP growth, while fixed capital investment rose 9.6%, led by information and communications, electricity supply, manufacturing, agriculture, and transport. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, July 14

China and Kazakhstan intensify nuclear ties. Kazakhstan Atomic Energy Agency Chairman Almassadam Satkaliyev toured Chinese nuclear facilities, uranium mining and fuel production sites, and research and training entities as bilateral nuclear cooperation expands. The trip followed China energy chief Wang Hongzhi’s visit to Kazakhstan and a protocol defining future cooperation, after Kazakhstan selected China National Nuclear Corp. in 2025 to build two large-scale reactors. Eurasianet, July 14

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East Asia

The Hormuz Energy Crisis Generates a Tailwind for Nuclear Energy in Northeast Asia. The Hormuz crisis has raised LNG prices and shipping costs across Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, strengthening support for nuclear power as an energy security tool. Japan is considering new reactors to meet its 2040 target. South Korea plans higher plant utilization and two new units amid strong public backing. Taiwan is reviewing reactor restarts as electricity demand grows. Political durability, licensing, staffing, safety, and construction will shape national paths. Jane Nakano, Center for Strategic and International Studies, July 14

Beijing pulls capital back toward the real economy. Beijing is redirecting capital toward manufacturing while treating finance, data, and digital activity as tools for industrial upgrading. Policy favors patient capital, long-term investment, artificial intelligence in factories, and data assets tied to production. Regulators are curbing capital idling, speculative circulation, and valuation-driven activity. The challenge is enforcement, since funds cluster in mature projects while early-stage firms lack support. Success depends on industry’s capacity to absorb capital and raise productivity. China Policy, July 14

When China’s open-source AI is a trap. China presents open-source artificial intelligence as a global public good, but the strategy serves economic influence, infrastructure sales, and competition with American firms. Low-cost models attract foreign users and support domestic applications, while Chinese rules enforce political compliance and national security priorities. Beijing may restrict access when advanced systems threaten state control or military interests. Countries seeking independence from American technology risk exchanging one dependency for another rooted in China. The Economist, July 14

How the US and China can cooperate to reduce urgent AI risks. The proposed US-China dialogue should focus on exchanging technical practices and avoid an arms control agreement. Talks should cover cybersecurity threats, weapons misuse, model failures, testing, red teaming, alignment, and containment. Export controls, access to US models, and pressure on Chinese open-source development should remain outside the forum. Delegations should combine senior officials with technical experts. Exchanges could build trust, support crisis contact, and create a foundation for international cooperation. Mark MacCarthy and Carl Schonander, Brookings, July 14

China Is Ready to Get Tough. China has moved from restrained protests toward sanctions, export controls, and pressure against states it believes challenge its interests. Greater economic strength, control of critical materials, industrial capacity, and legal tools have widened Beijing’s options. Retaliation aims to impose costs and deter pressure, yet repeated coercion may drive supply chain diversification, stronger alliances, and resistance. Effective statecraft requires calibrated responses that preserve leverage without turning tactical punishment into strategic isolation. Deng Yuwen, Foreign Policy, July 14

Japan automakers bought time with hybrids, now must spend it on software. Japanese automakers gained time by resisting rapid electric vehicle expansion and preserving hybrid strategies, which delivered sales as global EV demand slowed. Yet competition is shifting from powertrains toward software-defined vehicles led by Chinese firms with technology partners, scale, batteries, and integrated supply chains. Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and suppliers are building software and artificial intelligence capabilities, but Japan lacks a technology champion. Future success requires software, electronics, and intelligent systems. Hans Greimel, Nikkei Asia, July 14

Japan and the Philippines draw a line China cannot ignore. Maritime boundary talks between Japan and the Philippines reflect a security partnership shaped by concern over China. Defense exports, joint exercises, coast guard support, troop access, and infrastructure projects have deepened ties. The boundary in waters beside Taiwan may be symbolic because the overlap is small, yet Beijing and Taipei have reacted. Chinese patrols and past military activity show that negotiations could alter maritime conditions and expand competition around Taiwan. Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, Nikkei Asia, July 14

Southeast Asia

Indonesia should not overestimate the indispensability of its waterways. Indonesia’s waterways are trade routes, but they lack the leverage of the Strait of Hormuz because ships can bypass Malacca through longer routes. Transit fees could divert vessels, encourage projects such as the Kra Canal or Land Bridge, and reduce Indonesia’s strategic value. China and the United States would oppose restrictions on navigation. Fees could undermine the maritime legal order that supports Indonesia’s archipelagic sovereignty, national logistics, infrastructure, and development. Trystanto Sanjaya, East Asia Forum, July 14

The Politics of Indonesia’s Fiscal Recentralisation: Public Views on Regional Transfer Cuts. President Prabowo Subianto’s cuts to regional transfers have drawn broad public opposition and raised concerns about decentralisation. A national survey found that 63.3 percent of informed respondents rejected the policy, with resistance spanning regions and demographic groups. Critics say the cuts weaken elected local governments, reduce development capacity, threaten services, and shift fiscal power toward Jakarta. Continued reductions could fuel tensions before 2029 elections and distance leaders from the president. Burhanuddin Muhtadi, FULCRUM, July 14

South Asia

Iran war creates an opening for Pakistan’s maritime industry. The US–Israel war on Iran has strained Pakistan’s economy but expanded traffic through Karachi, Port Qasim, and Gwadar. Tariff cuts and revised transshipment rules helped ports capture cargo diverted from Gulf routes. Gwadar offers China a shorter energy corridor and Pakistan a chance to strengthen CPEC. Long-term gains depend on security, technical capacity, shipping logistics, and lasting changes in regional trade after conflict risks ease and traditional hubs resume operations. Muhammad Saad Ul Haque, East Asia Forum, July 14

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China

China rejects U.S., Panamanian claims of ‘weaponising’ ship inspections. China rejected U.S. and Panamanian accusations that it is using ship inspections for geopolitical leverage, saying checks of Panama-flagged vessels are lawful port-state safety measures. Foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian cited Chinese data showing Panama-flagged ships accounted for less than 20% of foreign arrivals but about half of accidents and casualties in Chinese waters from January to July. Cao Jiaxuan, South China Morning Post, July 13

China detains U.S. seismologist who has studied North Korean nuclear tests. Chinese-born U.S. seismologist Youlin Chen has been detained in China for nearly two years and faces espionage charges after publishing U.S.-funded research on detecting North Korean nuclear tests. His wife, U.S. lawmakers, and advocacy groups say he has been wrongfully detained, while concerns center on whether China could use his expertise to improve concealment of underground nuclear tests. Jonathan Landay and Michael Martina, Reuters, July 13

China’s GDP growth set to slow, raising expectations for more stimulus. China’s economic growth is expected to slow to 4.5% in the second quarter from 5.0% in the first, as weak domestic demand offsets resilient exports. Economists expect modest stimulus rather than aggressive easing, with fiscal support likely to increase while Beijing addresses overcapacity, deflation pressures, weak consumption, and a prolonged property downturn. Kevin Yao, Reuters, July 13

Japan

Japan OKs rules on social media in elections to maintain fairness. Japan’s parliament enacted a cross-party law tightening rules on social media use during elections to counter false information about candidates while protecting freedom of expression. The revisions require users to label election-related images or videos created or modified with AI and direct platform operators to limit harmful effects, though they face no penalties for noncompliance. Kyodo News, July 13

Tokyo’s ties with Beijing hit another bump, this time over the South China Sea. Japan’s relations with China worsened after Tokyo joined 13 other nations in a statement marking the 10th anniversary of an international tribunal ruling rejecting Beijing’s broad South China Sea claims. China reiterated opposition to the ruling, called it “a worthless piece of paper,” and accused external forces of using it to destabilize the region. Jesse Johnson, The Japan Times, July 13

Upper House passes bill to set up disaster management agency. Japan’s Upper House passed legislation establishing a disaster management agency under the Cabinet to centralize government responses to natural disasters. The prime minister will formally head the agency, while a new disaster management minister will oversee operations and issue recommendations after earthquakes, tsunamis, or volcanic eruptions. The 352-member agency will also improve evacuation shelter facilities and privacy. Eric Johnston, The Japan Times, July 13

South Korea

S. Korea flags record 2027 budget of over $530 billion as AI chip boom lifts revenues. South Korea plans record 2027 budget spending of more than 800 trillion won, supported by stronger tax revenues from the AI chip boom. The government will prioritize chips, AI data centers, and physical AI, while restructuring about 50 trillion won in existing spending and launching a Future Response Fund for youth, growth engines, regions, and talent. Joyce Lee, Reuters, July 13

S. Korea court sentences ex-president to 2 years in jail in political funding case, media says. A South Korean court sentenced former President Yoon Suk Yeol to two years in prison after finding him guilty of illegally receiving free opinion polling services worth 270 million won from a political broker. The court said Yoon later influenced a former lawmaker’s nomination to repay the broker, though Yoon denied requesting polls or promising anything in return. Joyce Lee and Heejin Kim, Reuters, July 13

Ex-DP leader Jung declares bid for reelection. Former Democratic Party leader Jung Chung-rae declared his reelection bid, making the Aug. 17 leadership race a five-way contest. Jung pledged to support President Lee Jae Myung’s administration, unify the party, government, and Cheong Wa Dae, and help the ruling party win another term. He denied suspicions that he would use the leadership post to prepare a presidential run. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, July 13

Lee says will create ‘future response’ fund using extra tax revenue. President Lee Jae Myung said South Korea will use additional tax revenue from the semiconductor boom to create a “future response fund” for future industries, younger generations, regional development, and education. The government will also support three semiconductor and AI megaprojects, strengthen protections for workers affected by AI, and consider electricity pricing changes that avoid increasing household burdens. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 13

North Korea

Cargo trucks line up at China-North Korea border in trade surge. Cargo truck traffic between Dandong and Sinuiju has increased, with large container convoys carrying likely construction materials, medical equipment, electronics, clothing, and other goods into North Korea. The rise follows last month’s Kim Jong Un-Xi Jinping summit and reflects growing bilateral trade, which reached 8.71 billion yuan in the first five months of 2026, up 17.6% from a year earlier. Seulkee Jang, Daily NK, July 13

With North Korea tourism stalled, China agencies push business visas instead. Chinese travel agencies are shifting from stalled North Korea tourism packages to business visa trips as no clear reopening timeline emerges. Agencies had promoted tours after passenger rail and flights resumed, but recreational travel remains uncertain. Businesspeople with pre-pandemic investments are reportedly traveling more freely, fueling frustration among would-be tourists who believe Pyongyang is admitting only visitors ready to invest. Lee Chae Eun, Daily NK, July 13

Vietnam

Prime Minister Le Minh Hung receives new U.S. ambassador. Prime Minister Le Minh Hung received new U.S. Ambassador Jennifer Wicks in Hanoi and called for stronger economic, trade, defense, security, technology, education, and people-to-people cooperation. Both sides emphasized a reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade agreement, war legacy cooperation, maritime security, law enforcement, innovation, and constructive handling of differences to maintain momentum in bilateral relations. Vietnam News, July 13

Myanmar

ASEAN ministers push stalled peace plan in Myanmar talks. Southeast Asian foreign ministers pressed Myanmar Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe in Bangkok for concrete progress on ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus, including humanitarian access, reduced violence, civilian protection, political dialogue, and political prisoner releases. Thailand backed calibrated engagement, while Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro said ASEAN still supports the peace plan despite Myanmar lawmakers’ rejection of it. The Irrawaddy, July 13

Laos

Laos formally becomes Shanghai Cooperation Organisation dialogue partner. Laos formally became an SCO dialogue partner after Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Thongsavanh Phomvihane signed an MoU with SCO Secretary-General Nurlan Yermekbayev in Beijing. The agreement opens cooperation with SCO members in economic development, trade, investment, transport, tourism, digital transformation, and regional connectivity, while Laos emphasized peace, security, stability, and sustainable development. Vientiane Times, July 13

Cambodia

Hun Manet to meet Xi Jinping, speak at World AI Conference in China. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet will visit China from July 15 to 17 for meetings with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang before delivering a keynote address at the 2026 World AI Conference in Shanghai. The delegation includes senior development, defense, government, and business representatives, with both sides seeking stronger cooperation in trade, investment, technology, and strategic partnership frameworks. Meng Seavmey, Cambodianess, July 13

Philippines

West Philippine Sea education bill pushed. Sen. Erwin Tulfo urged immediate passage of the proposed West Philippine Sea Education Act after Chinese scholars claimed Batanes as part of China’s territory. The bill would require teacher training on West Philippine Sea education, while House members pushed related measures to declare July 12 West Philippine Sea Victory Day and teach maritime history and geography in schools. Bernadette E. Tamayo, Reina C. Tolentino, and Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, July 12

Prosecution gains edge in impeach trial – survey. A Tangere survey found the prosecution slightly ahead of the defense in public opinion during Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial, with 32% favoring the prosecution, 30% backing the defense, and 38% undecided. Regional and political divisions remained sharp, while 58% of respondents were satisfied with Sen. Francis Escudero’s handling of the proceedings. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, July 13

Taiwan

Taiwan launches joint defense drill featuring Marine Corps deployment. Taiwan’s military launched a five-day joint defense exercise featuring Marine Corps mobilization to reinforce the Taipei metropolitan area. The drill simulates hostile vessels entering territorial waters, integrates the three military branches, and tests decentralized command-and-control systems. Marine units moved from southern Taiwan to Taipei and New Taipei to establish temporary command posts and conduct reconnaissance. Matt Yu and Ko Lin, Focus Taiwan, July 13

Bangladesh

Bangladesh says IMF agrees phased approach to reforms under new programme. Bangladesh and the IMF agreed on the broad framework for a new lending program to replace the country’s existing $5.5 billion bailout. Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said reforms will be phased to reflect economic conditions and protect public welfare, with further talks expected on subsidies, tax measures, and policy conditions during IMF and World Bank meetings. Ruma Paul, Reuters, July 13

Ousted PM Hasina faces prison on return to Bangladesh, minister says. Bangladesh’s state minister for foreign affairs said ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will be jailed if she returns from exile in India and surrenders. Hasina faces a death sentence in Bangladesh over a deadly crackdown during the 2024 uprising, while Dhaka has asked India to extradite her. The minister called Hasina’s planned return an effort to mobilize fugitive party leaders and activists. Ruma Paul, Reuters, July 13

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan to establish committee to regulate digital asset market. Kazakhstan will create a National Bank committee to regulate and supervise the digital asset market and strengthen oversight of the national payments system. A presidential decree authorizes digital assets and stablecoins for cross-border settlements, introduces voluntary disclosure for assets on foreign platforms, and exempts individuals from income tax on profits from licensed digital asset platforms. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, July 13

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan adopts Central Asia’s first framework climate law. Kyrgyzstan adopted a framework climate law that takes effect on January 1, 2027, putting emissions policy and climate adaptation under one legal structure. The law covers climate finance, carbon neutrality, research, training, technology transfer, carbon units, and a national registry, while giving the Cabinet six months to align existing regulations and define implementation rules. Stephen M. Bland, The Times of Central Asia, July 13

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East Asia

Stop Overreacting to China’s Missile Test. China’s submarine-launched ballistic missile test reflected technical and institutional needs, not coercive signaling. The launch validated missile range, command systems, submarine coordination, and force readiness. Beijing chose a less provocative route, issued advance notices, and framed the event as routine training. Condemnation could discourage transparency and reduce incentives for future risk-reduction measures. Washington should reward compliance with accepted testing practices and pursue communication that lowers miscalculation risks during nuclear crises. Decker Eveleth, Foreign Policy, July 13

China’s Tech Push Is Running Into the Limits of Its Domestic Reform Agenda. China’s technology strategy has built global strength in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, robotics, and biotechnology. Its next stage depends on domestic reform. Labor disruption, weak welfare coverage, low household demand, distorted capital markets, regulatory uncertainty, and political pressure on private firms threaten frontier innovation. Long-term progress requires stronger social protection, deeper consumer demand, patient capital, credible governance, room for failure, and political predictability within China’s national innovation system. Lizzi Lee and Huiyan Li, China-US Focus, July 10

China’s Transnational Repression Is Being Met With a Deafening Silence. China’s detention of U.S. citizen Min Zin on espionage charges reflects a broader campaign of transnational repression against scholars, activists, dissidents, and diaspora communities. Beijing uses surveillance, threats, covert police stations, Interpol notices, family pressure, and state-linked groups to silence criticism outside China. Washington has stayed silent. The United States should demand Min Zin’s release, confront repression in talks, sanction officials, coordinate with allies, and warn researchers about travel risks. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, July 13

A squeezed China is trying to wring more from its state assets. China’s local governments are monetizing underused state assets as property declines reduce land-sale revenue and strain municipal budgets. Yueyang has renovated public property, consolidated fishing rights, and converted failed developments into commercial sites. Similar programs have raised income from state assets in several provinces and helped Jilin leave a high-debt blacklist. The campaign cannot erase two decades of borrowing, but supports budgets and shifts development from expansion toward existing assets. Simon Rabinovitch, The Economist, July 13

The NATO Summit and the Long Shadow of Beijing. Europe’s rearmament is reshaping its view of China as NATO turns defense pledges into procurement, industrial programs, and support for Ukraine. The European Union is preparing to identify China as a strategic challenge and facilitator of Russia’s war. Evidence of Sino-Russian military cooperation reinforces concerns linking Europe and Asia. Disputes over “Made in NATO” and “Buy European” expose tension between unity, industrial sovereignty, and efforts to reduce dependence on Beijing. Konrad Szatters, China Observers, July 13

UK China policy is a necessary compromise. Britain’s China policy reflects a compromise between economic engagement, security concerns, and alliance obligations. Keir Starmer’s Beijing visit reopened dialogue without reviving the “Golden Era.” Dependence on the United States through NATO, Five Eyes, and AUKUS limits London’s freedom, while concerns about espionage, cyber activity, Hong Kong, and Xinjiang shape debate. Cautious cooperation on migration, crime, visas, and investment offers a model that preserves dialogue without abandoning competition or scrutiny. Zeno Leoni, East Asia Forum, July 10

Sanaenomics' optimistic ambition to bring back a stronger and richer Japan. Sanaenomics seeks to revive Japan through fiscal expansion, industrial policy, public investment, and economic security. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has targeted strategic sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence, backed by large public-private funding plans. Supporters expect stronger demand to raise investment, productivity, and potential growth. Risks include high public debt, rising bond yields, yen weakness, inflation, and stagnant wages. Durable recovery depends on household income and private consumption growth. Kang-Kook Lee, Nikkei Asia, July 13.

Japan’s LDP drifts back toward old factional habits. Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party is rebuilding faction-like groups after its 2026 election victory, despite dissolutions prompted by the slush fund scandal. Former factions organize around senior leaders, train new lawmakers, shape committee assignments, and prepare for the 2027 leadership contest. Taro Aso’s surviving faction has gained influence, while rival networks support Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The revival exposes weak reform, unresolved funding oversight, structural incentives, and enduring party factionalism. Yan Shot, East Asia Forum, July 10

The Trump effect on Japan–South Korea relations. Japan and South Korea have strengthened ties under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and President Lee Jae-myung, driven by shared concern over Donald Trump’s unpredictable policies and possible U.S. retreat. Both governments seek closer security and economic cooperation, but domestic resistance blocks key defense arrangements and South Korea’s trade pact application. Differences over China, North Korea, wartime compensation, and Yasukuni Shrine visits could revive tensions and limit the partnership’s long-term durability. Daniel Sneider, East Asia Forum, July 12

Southeast Asia

Small States, Big Stakes: ASEAN’s Narrowing Space for Collective Agency. ASEAN has less room for collective action as United States-China rivalry, protectionism, supply disruptions, and conflicts expose small states to coercion. Its influence rests on coalition building, institutions, trade agreements, and convening power. RCEP, the ASEAN Economic Community, and the Digital Economy Framework Agreement can strengthen resilience. Yet strategic neutrality creates serious risk. ASEAN must deepen integration and defend consensus-based forums before great-power pressure weakens its ability to shape order. Denis Hew, FULCRUM, July 13.

Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional is going solo in name only. Barisan Nasional’s pledge to contest Malaysia’s next general election without partners functions as political positioning behind a claim of independence. Chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi seeks to revive Malay support, distance UMNO from the Democratic Action Party, and preserve leverage over coalition talks. Electoral rules favor seat coordination with Pakatan Harapan or other partners. BN’s Johor victory strengthens its position, but declining Malay backing and pressure from Perikatan Nasional remain obstacles. Asif Ullah Khan, East Asia Forum, July 13

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China

South China Sea joint statement says China’s maritime claims have no basis. Japan, the Philippines, the U.S., and 11 other countries said China’s expansive South China Sea claims have no legal basis, marking the 10th anniversary of the 2016 arbitral ruling. The joint statement called the award final, legally binding, and definitive between China and the Philippines. Beijing rejected the ruling again and protested Japan’s remarks and participation in the statement. Kiyoshi Takenaka and Beijing Newsroom, Reuters, July 12

Japan

Philippines to get 5 used destroyers from Japan: defense secretary. The Philippines expects to acquire five soon-to-be-retired Abukuma-class destroyers from Japan at no cost, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said. The transfer follows a broad agreement after the countries’ leaders agreed in May to accelerate defense equipment discussions. Manila will assess the ships’ autocannons, anti-ship missile systems, and berthing requirements as delivery is expected within a few years. Kyodo News, July 11

Imperial house bill clears Lower House after last-minute deal. Japan’s Lower House passed an Imperial House Law revision bill aimed at securing the number of imperial family members after the Centrist Reform Alliance gave reluctant support. The bill would allow female imperial family members to retain royal status after marriage and permit male-line descendants of former imperial branches to join by adoption, but it faces opposition and amendment efforts in the Upper House. Mika Kuniyoshi, The Asahi Shimbun, July 10

South Korea

South Korean navy recovers body of seaman missing near North Korean border. South Korea’s navy recovered the body of a seaman who went missing from a patrol vessel operating off the eastern coast near the maritime border with North Korea. The navy found him about 52 km east of the coast after a search and rescue operation, but did not provide details on his disappearance. Seoul had asked Pyongyang for help if he had crossed the Northern Limit Line. Jack Kim, Reuters, July 12

Lee seeks closer ties with NATO as Seoul pushes to expand arms exports to Europe. President Lee Jae Myung used the NATO summit in Ankara to advance South Korea’s defense industry ties with the alliance as Europe increases military spending. Seoul and NATO agreed to begin talks on a procurement framework agreement, while Lee proposed broader cooperation on joint research, production, operations, standardization, and third-market expansion beyond arms sales. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 11

Special counsel pursues arrest warrant for ex-military commander over alleged martial law ties. A special counsel team sought an arrest warrant for former Army Ground Operations Commander Kang Ho-pil over his alleged role in former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed martial law bid. Kang is accused of forming a situation room, ordering a crisis response team and senior officers to assemble, and joining pre-declaration discussions. He denies prior knowledge or involvement. Yoo Jee-ho, Yonhap News Agency, July 11

North Korea

North Korea condemns NATO summit, says denuclearisation should start with U.S. allies. North Korea condemned the U.S. and its allies after the NATO summit, accusing the alliance of strengthening military blocs, increasing arms spending, and expanding cooperation with Asia-Pacific partners. Pyongyang said denuclearisation efforts should focus on South Korea, Japan, and NATO nuclear-sharing members, while KCNA said North Korea had decided to strengthen its nuclear forces quantitatively and qualitatively. Heekyong Yang and Joyce Lee, Reuters, July 11

N.K. leader denounces corruption in military at rare meeting. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un denounced military corruption at a rare joint meeting of the ruling party, government, and army in Pyongyang. State media focused on Pak Hui-chol, a former General Political Bureau official punished by the Supreme Court for alleged abuse of authority, bribery, and embezzlement, as Kim called for stronger efforts to root out corruption and irregularities. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, July 11

Vietnam

Vietnam seeks stronger economic links with Egypt's Red Sea Governorate. Vietnamese Ambassador to Egypt Nguyen Nam Duong and Red Sea Governor Walid Al Barqi discussed expanding cooperation between Vietnamese localities and Egypt’s Red Sea Governorate in maritime transport, logistics, trade, tourism, mining, aquaculture, and the marine economy. Duong urged continued phosphate ore supply contracts, while a Vietnam-Egypt economic forum highlighted opportunities in minerals, tourism, logistics, and bilateral trade. Vietnam News, July 12

Thailand

Senate gives nod to 10 bills. Thailand’s Senate approved 10 bills during the first ordinary session of 2026 and completed consideration of the amended Clean Air Bill. Senators voted 113-10 to remove a proposed deposit-refund system, with supporters of the deletion saying it focused on waste management rather than air pollution, while critics said it could reduce waste burning and address pollution at its source. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, July 11

EC urged to open senate ballot boxes. Senior opposition politicians urged Thailand’s Election Commission to open ballot boxes from the 2024 Senate election, alleging widespread fraud designed to install senators capable of influencing independent institutions. Prachachat Party leader Tawee Sodsong cited alleged coordinated networks, matching ballot patterns, CCTV evidence, and pre-arranged voting lists, while People’s Party MP Parit Wacharasindhu warned that unlawful senators would undermine later appointments and legislative actions. Bangkok Post, July 12

Myanmar

Myanmar tells ASEAN 'sister' Aung San Suu Kyi will be looked after, envoy says. Myanmar’s foreign minister told ASEAN that detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi was in good health and would be cared for, according to ASEAN special envoy Maria Theresa Lazaro. ASEAN foreign ministers met Myanmar’s top diplomat in person for the first time since the 2021 coup, pressing for access to Suu Kyi and progress on the bloc’s five-point peace plan. Panu Wongcha-Um and Martin Petty, Reuters, July 12

Myanmar parliament passes official rejection of ASEAN’s Five-Point Peace Plan. Myanmar’s military-backed parliament formally rejected ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus after lawmakers argued it conflicted with the country’s “political reality” and infringed on sovereignty. The motion followed ASEAN’s continued exclusion of Min Aung Hlaing from summits and came ahead of an informal Bangkok meeting between ASEAN foreign ministers and Myanmar’s foreign minister. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, July 10

Philippines

A decade after historic ruling, Philippine fishermen say driven away from disputed shoal by China. Philippine fishermen in Masinloc say they remain unable to safely fish at Scarborough Shoal 10 years after the 2016 arbitral ruling rejected China’s sweeping South China Sea claims. Fishermen described being chased away, hit with water cannon, and having anchor lines cut by Chinese personnel. Philippine officials say the ruling strengthened Manila’s legal position and international support. Adrian Portugal and Karen Lema, Reuters, July 10

Legal experts split on criminal intent. Legal experts offered contrasting assessments of whether prosecutors established criminal intent in Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial over alleged threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., first lady Liza Araneta-Marcos, and former speaker Martin Romualdez. Retired justice Adolfo Azcuna said evidence shifted the burden to the defense, while international law expert Melissa Loja said no impeachable offense had emerged. Franco Jose C. Baroña, Bernadette E. Tamayo, Reina C. Tolentino, and Philippine News Agency, The Manila Times, July 12

Philippines urged to anchor South China Sea code on arbitral ruling. Stratbase Institute president Victor Andres Manhit urged the Philippines to use its 2026 ASEAN chairmanship to push for a legally binding South China Sea Code of Conduct anchored on the 2016 arbitral ruling. He warned that any agreement weakening the award would undermine international law, regional stability, and claimant states’ maritime rights. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, July 11

Indonesia

Top Indonesian prosecutor resigns amid corruption probe. Febrie Adriansyah resigned as Indonesia’s head prosecutor for special crimes after police raids tied to corruption investigations, including at his residence, led to seizures of more than US$20 million in cash and 74 kg of gold bars. Police named him a suspect in alleged extortion, bribery, and money laundering linked to a past Asabri case, which Febrie denied. Gayatri Suroyo, Reuters, July 11

Malaysia

Malaysia PM's coalition routed by key partner in Johor state poll, testing federal ties. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan coalition suffered a major defeat to federal partner Barisan Nasional in Johor’s state election. BN won 48 of 56 seats, while Pakatan fell to eight, raising pressure on the governing alliance despite no immediate effect on Anwar’s parliamentary majority. The result may deepen strains between the blocs ahead of another state vote in Negeri Sembilan. Rozanna Latiff, Reuters, July 12

Taiwan

Taiwan military gains 5,000 volunteers, but ‘real problem’ is retention. Taiwan’s volunteer force grew by more than 5,000 personnel over the past year after higher pay, improved living conditions, relaxed recruitment standards, and personnel-management changes. Lawmakers and analysts warned the increase does not resolve chronic manpower shortages or declining combat readiness, with eligible male conscripts projected to fall below 80,000 by 2027 and retention remaining the central challenge. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, July 12

India

New Zealand, India upgrade ties as PM Modi visits Auckland. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon upgraded bilateral ties to a strategic partnership during talks in Auckland. The leaders cited shared democratic values, people-to-people links, and Indo-Pacific interests, while the countries also signed a defense cooperation arrangement and pledged closer collaboration on maritime safety amid New Delhi’s broader Asia-Pacific outreach. Sam McKeith and Lucy Craymer, Reuters, July 11

Bangladesh

Bangladesh's Hasina plans December return with party colleagues to surrender. Ousted Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said she and senior Awami League colleagues plan to return from exile in India around December and surrender in court despite her death sentence. Hasina said she had not consulted any foreign government, wanted the ban on her party lifted, and would test Bangladesh’s treatment of its most prominent political opponent. Krishna N. Das, Reuters, July 10

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China

U.S. hearing weighs higher tariffs over alleged forced labour, targeting China. China’s labor practices came under scrutiny during a U.S. government hearing on proposed tariffs for goods linked to forced labor. The USTR is considering 10% to 12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 economies, with Chinese-linked supply chains including cotton, polysilicon, and critical minerals highlighted. Labor advocates supported tougher tariffs, while business groups warned that broad measures could raise costs without fixing abuses. Han Li, South China Morning Post, July 8

Japan

Diet to debate imperial reform bill after olive branch from LDP. Japan’s ruling and opposition parties agreed to begin deliberations on Imperial House Law revisions after the LDP and Nippon Ishin postponed a bill to reduce Lower House seats. The talks are expected to start on July 10, before the Diet session ends July 17. The LDP also agreed to consider an opposition request for a Budget Committee meeting attended by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The Asahi Shimbun, July 8

Japan to add BOJ independence reference to economic blueprint, source says. Japan’s government plans to add an explicit reference to Bank of Japan independence in its economic blueprint to address market concerns over political interference in monetary policy. The revision will cite the BOJ Act’s requirement that the central bank’s autonomy over currency and monetary control be respected, after earlier wording failed to calm bond markets. Tamiyuki Kihara, Yoshifumi Takemoto, Kiyoshi Takenaka, and Makiko Yamazaki, Reuters, July 9

South Korea

South Korea's Supreme Court upholds lower court ruling in ex-president Yoon's obstruction case. South Korea’s Supreme Court upheld former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s seven-year prison sentence for obstructing authorities’ efforts to arrest him over his 2024 martial law declaration. The court also upheld findings that Yoon fabricated documents, failed to follow legal procedures for imposing martial law, and spread false information to foreign media. His lawyers said they would seek constitutional review. Heejin Kim, Joyce Lee, and Kyu-Seok Shim, Reuters, July 9

Trump seems not to rule out building U.S. military ships he requested in S. Korea: presidential official. A South Korean presidential official said Donald Trump does not appear to rule out having U.S. military ships built in South Korea after raising the idea with President Lee Jae Myung. Trump first made the request at the G7 summit in France and discussed it again with Lee during a NATO summit dinner in Ankara, though working-level talks are needed to clarify details. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 9

Lee, Mongolian president pledge closer cooperation on critical minerals, trade, advanced tech. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh pledged closer cooperation on trade, critical minerals, supply chains, AI, digital transformation, science, and technology during a summit in Ulaanbaatar. The leaders agreed in principle on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, set a goal of US$1 billion in annual bilateral trade by 2030, and signed 21 agreements and memorandums of understanding. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 9

North Korea

North Korea’s premier heads to China for defence treaty anniversary as allies extend thaw. North Korean Premier Pak Thae-song is visiting China for the 65th anniversary of the China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance, Beijing’s only formal defense pact. The trip follows Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Pyongyang and signals improving ties after pandemic-era border closures and North Korea’s closer military alignment with Russia. China remains North Korea’s key economic lifeline. Xinlu Liang, South China Morning Post, July 9

Vietnam

Vietnam hails conclusion of EFTA FTA talks after over a decade, paving way for greater Europe ties. Vietnam welcomed the conclusion of free trade talks with the European Free Trade Association after 14 years, calling the agreement a milestone in expanding ties with Europe. The pact covers goods, services, investment, intellectual property, procurement, sustainable development, small businesses, and capacity-building cooperation. Vietnam and EFTA members will work toward signing and implementation. Vietnam News, July 9

Myanmar

ASEAN foreign ministers to hold meeting with Myanmar counterpart at weekend. ASEAN foreign ministers will hold an informal meeting with Myanmar’s counterpart in Bangkok on July 12, Thailand and Vietnam said. The meeting comes as Myanmar’s army-backed government seeks relief from ASEAN restrictions imposed after the 2021 coup and civil war. Vietnam said the meeting would allow ministers to exchange views, strengthen cooperation, and promote reconciliation dialogue in Myanmar. Khanh Vu and Devjyot Ghoshal, Reuters, July 9

Putschist president announces 43 changes to Myanmar’s Constitution. Min Aung Hlaing sent 43 proposed constitutional amendments to Myanmar’s military-dominated parliament, though the draft changes and debate schedule were not disclosed. The proposals include changes requiring either referendum approval or a 75% parliamentary majority, with possible restrictions on senior posts, longer terms for the Constitutional Tribunal and Union Election Commission, and limited state and regional constitutional powers. The Irrawaddy, July 9

Cambodia

Thailand using maritime dispute to stall land border talks, Cambodian official says. Cambodian Senate official Ouch Borith said Thailand is using UNCLOS procedures over overlapping maritime claims to delay Joint Boundary Commission talks on the land border. Cambodia invoked compulsory conciliation after Thailand terminated the 2001 memorandum on the overlapping claims area, while Borith said Bangkok has used that move to suspend demarcation work and create facts on the ground. Meng Seavmey, Cambodianess, July 9

Philippines

Philippines rejects Chinese scholars' claim over its island province near Taiwan. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro rejected as baseless and ludicrous assertions by Chinese scholars that Batanes belongs to Beijing. Chinese state-run media reported that scholars argued Batanes was a natural extension of Taiwan and therefore belonged to China, though Beijing has not formally endorsed the position. Teodoro said the claim was concerning and should be challenged. Nestor Corrales, Reuters, July 9

Palace: VP Sara never detailed alleged kill plot. Malacañang said Vice President Sara Duterte has not substantiated the alleged “Operation Romanov” plot that her defense cited to justify threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., first lady Liza Araneta-Marcos, and former speaker Martin Romualdez. Senate officials said security and administrative arrangements are ready if Duterte attends her impeachment trial, while Zuleika Lopez is expected to testify on July 14. Catherine S. Valente, Bernadette E. Tamayo, Javier Joe Ismael, and Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, July 9

Prosecution panel gives impeachment trial performance a score of 10. The House prosecution team gave itself a perfect score for the first week of Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial, saying it achieved all objectives. Lead prosecutor Gerville Luistro said the panel explained the trial’s broader importance, presented NBI special agent John Mark Calilung as its first witness, and withstood defense cross-examination over his testimony on Duterte’s Zoom press conference. Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, July 9

Indonesia

Indonesia, Russia deepen IP partnership to boost innovation. Indonesia’s Ministry of Law and Russia’s Rospatent signed an MoU in Geneva to strengthen intellectual property cooperation and expand opportunities for Indonesian innovators in the Russian market. The initiatives include digital data use, patent analysis, IP valuation capacity building, information exchange, geographical indication protection, WIPO cooperation, and possible Patent Prosecution Highway implementation to accelerate patent examinations. ANTARA News, July 9

Taiwan

Taiwan pushes back at China patrols with Coast Guard trip for foreign lawmakers. Taiwan took foreign lawmakers on a Coast Guard patrol around Kinmen to draw attention to Chinese patrols near Taiwan-controlled waters. Seven foreign lawmakers and two Taiwanese lawmakers joined the 90-minute trip, which officials said was meant to show pressure from China. Beijing criticized the visit, while Taiwan said China has no right to claim maritime jurisdiction over the island. Ben Blanchard and Yi-Chin Lee, Reuters, July 9

Ex-DPP staffer receives 10 years for developing spy network for China. Taiwan’s High Court sentenced former Democratic Progressive Party staffer Huang Chu-jung to 10 years in prison for developing an organization on behalf of China. Prosecutors said Huang was recruited by Chinese intelligence agents, recruited then-DPP staffer Chiu Shih-yuan, and tried to recruit former foreign minister adviser Ho Jen-chieh to gather classified information. The ruling can be appealed. Liu Shih-yi and Evelyn Kao, Focus Taiwan, July 9

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan’s Persian Gulf port plan faces new Iran risk. Kazakhstan’s 27-year agreement to build a logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee Port gives Astana a possible Persian Gulf foothold while exposing the project to rising security risks around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The $25 million plan covers a 15-hectare logistics center tied to the International North-South Transport Corridor, but war risk, sanctions, insurance costs, and disrupted shipping could affect use of the route. Stephen M. Bland, The Times of Central Asia, July 9

Kazakhstan tightens control over petroleum products. Kazakhstan is tightening control over petroleum products as Russian gasoline shortages and Gulf tensions strain regional markets. Officials set up police checkpoints on nearly 60 roads near the Russian border to curb “gasoline tourism,” limited vehicles to one border crossing per day, and plan to extend a petroleum export ban through May 22 next year. Kyrgyzstan has asked Astana for an exemption. Eurasianet, July 9

Kyrgyzstan

Fuel squeeze leaves Kyrgyzstan competing for costly alternatives. Kyrgyzstan is seeking alternative fuel supplies from China and Belarus as Russian refining disruptions expose its dependence on Moscow. China has confirmed 3,000 tons of jet fuel, while Belarus has agreed to supply 3,000 tons of jet fuel and about 10,000 tons of diesel. Alternatives from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and China remain costly or logistically difficult, leaving Bishkek exposed to regional competition. The Times of Central Asia, July 9

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East Asia

A new risk framework for Chinese technology products and investments. The United States needs a coordinated process for assessing Chinese technology products, services, and investments as risks expand across connected devices and supply chains. A National Security Council-led framework, with the Bureau of Industry and Security as coordinator, would identify data, cybersecurity, supply chain, industrial, job, and influence risks, weigh benefits such as lower costs and innovation, use tailored mitigation tools, increase transparency, gather feedback, and monitor ongoing market conditions. Kyle Chan, Brookings, July 9

China may struggle to fund Xi Jinping’s tech dreams. China’s technology ambitions require vast capital for artificial intelligence, robotics, manufacturing, fusion, and other frontier sectors. Equity fundraising, state-directed funds, IPOs, and corporate venture investments have returned after earlier crackdowns. Yet capital allocation follows party priorities, with regulators steering listings toward favored hardware firms. State involvement brings policy strings, weak innovation incentives, retail speculation, and investor caution, leaving state banks prominent and Xi Jinping’s goals harder to fund at scale. The Economist, July 9

Purged generals, flying missiles: China’s military paradox. China’s missile tests signal that the PLA’s strategic nuclear deterrent remains intact despite sweeping anti-corruption purges. Public launches of land-based and submarine-launched missiles aim to counter doubts about corruption in the Rocket Force and defense industry. The tests warn the United States and allies that China retains long-range strike and second-strike capacity, while questions remain over command, morale, joint operations, regional arms responses, and strategy before PLA centenary year 2027. Sim Tze Wei, ThinkChina, July 9

What China’s submarine missile test reveals about its nuclear strategy. China’s July submarine-launched missile test demonstrated an integrated second-strike system involving submarine, missile, crew, communications, and command. Paired with the 2024 land-based ICBM test, the launch showed Beijing seeking survivable retaliation before accepting arms limits. The display targets Washington and other nuclear powers, supports China’s selective transparency, and may deepen regional security dilemmas as allies invest in warning, anti-submarine warfare, intelligence, and deterrence across a tense Asian environment around China. Hao Nan, ThinkChina, July 9

The Propaganda Promise of AI. China Daily is making artificial intelligence central to external propaganda by turning AI from an audience analysis tool into an action tool for rapid content production. Its AI Inspiration Studio creates videos that respond to disputes over Japan, Taiwan, Greenland, tariffs, and US policy. Qu Yingpu links this move to media integration, AI-driven operations, and overseas partnerships, but strict political control may constrain creativity and audience impact in global campaigns. David Bandurski, China Media Project, July 9

Southeast Asia

Bangkok seeks to spearhead ASEAN re-engagement with Myanmar. Thailand is seeking to guide ASEAN toward constructive engagement with Myanmar before its 2028 chairmanship, arguing that current regional policy has produced limited progress. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s stable government frames dialogue as a path to border security, reduced crime, refugee management, and regional relevance. The plan centers on ASEAN chair support, the Troika, and the three Rs of regionalism, relevance, and resilience, while leaving justice and settlement questions unresolved. William J Jones, East Asia Forum, July 9

Prabowo’s Nutrition Agency Shake-Up Reveals Deeper Structural Problems. President Prabowo’s replacement of Dadan Hindayana at the National Nutrition Agency leaves the Free Nutritious Meals program facing corruption, fiscal strain, contractor incentives, and weak community oversight. The program consumes about 7 percent of Indonesia’s budget and has reached 62.4 million beneficiaries. Reform requires grassroots participation, independent audits, removal of foundation contractors, and a shift from rent distribution toward nutrition goals for women, toddlers, vulnerable regions and health outcomes. Made Supriatma, FULCRUM, July 9

South Asia

Is Pakistan turning its side of Kashmir into another Balochistan? Pakistan’s ban on the Joint Awami Action Committee, internet shutdowns, paramilitary deployments, and clashes in Azad Jammu and Kashmir expose tensions behind Islamabad’s autonomy claims. The dispute over refugee-reserved legislative seats challenged a mechanism of federal leverage. Criminalizing civic protest risks narrowing peaceful politics and echoing Balochistan. Domicile rules for contested seats, a negotiation forum, and credible July elections offer paths to reduce unrest and limit insurgency risks in Kashmir. Salman Rafi Sheikh, Nikkei Asia, July 9

Oceania

Australia tests domestic justice for international crimes. Australia is moving toward domestic prosecutions for international crimes committed abroad, with charges against two former soldiers from Afghanistan investigations and four women connected to ISIS. The Criminal Code permits cases over war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide outside Australia, but jury trials, unanimity rules, evidentiary issues, and Attorney General consent create hurdles. Stronger investigative capacity and engagement with regional civil society could support future accountability beyond Australian nationals. Sarah Williams, Natalie Hodgson, East Asia Forum, July 9

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China

China’s Xi Jinping calls for innovation system overhaul to beat global tech rivals. Xi Jinping called for stronger efforts to attract overseas talent, fix structural weaknesses in China’s innovation system and accelerate high-level technological self-reliance. He cited shortcomings in original innovation, talent structure and investment efficiency, while highlighting AI, quantum technology, life sciences, integrated circuits, advanced manufacturing, and deep-sea, deep-space and deep-Earth research as priority areas. Xinlu Liang, South China Morning Post, July 8

U.S. criticizes China for short notice ahead of missile test. The U.S. State Department said China gave only a few hours’ notice and insufficient detail before a July 6 ballistic missile test from a nuclear-powered submarine into the Pacific. The official said the notification fell short of standards used by other P5 nuclear powers and urged Beijing to engage in strategic stability and arms control discussions. Michael Martina, Bhargav Acharya, Reuters, July 8

China eyes Russian submarine rescue expertise in Yellow Sea naval drills. China and Russia began the Joint Sea-2026 naval exercise in Qingdao, including submarine rescue, anti-submarine warfare, search-and-rescue and air defense drills. Beijing is seeking Russian experience in underwater combat support and emergency rescue as it expands its submarine fleet and improves support capabilities. Amber Wang, South China Morning Post, July 8

Beijing slams Manila over South China Sea claims ahead of 2016 Hague anniversary. A Chinese Ministry of Natural Resources think tank rejected the Philippines’ claims to Scarborough Shoal and parts of the Spratly Islands, calling them historically and legally unfounded. The report accused Manila of shifting justifications, expanding beyond treaty-defined limits and escalating tensions through maritime activity, as Beijing intensified its legal campaign before the 10th anniversary of the 2016 Hague ruling. Orange Wang, South China Morning Post, July 8

Japan

LDP and JIP agree to delay bill to reduce Lower House seats. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Japan Innovation Party leader Hirofumi Yoshimura agreed to postpone discussions on a bill to reduce Lower House seats until after the current parliamentary session. Yoshimura said the bill remains a top reform priority and reiterated that the LDP and JIP had promised to pursue the reduction. Eric Johnston, The Japan Times, July 8

South Korea

Lee, Trump discuss cooperation on building U.S. military vessels during NATO dinner: spokesperson. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and U.S. President Donald Trump held follow-up talks on Trump’s request for Seoul’s help building U.S. military vessels during a dinner at the NATO summit in Ankara. Lee said South Korea would cooperate as fully as possible, citing its shipbuilding capabilities, and both sides agreed to continue working-level consultations. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 8

Lee, Zelenskyy agree to handle N. Korean POWs in Ukraine on humanitarian grounds. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to handle North Korean prisoners of war in Ukraine under international law and humanitarian principles while respecting their wishes. Lee explained Seoul’s US$100 million assistance plan for Ukraine, while Zelenskyy expressed gratitude, called for continued international cooperation, and sought South Korean attention to postwar reconstruction. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 8

Lee wraps up trip to Ankra, heads to Ulaanbaatar for summit with Mongolian president. President Lee Jae Myung left Ankara after attending the NATO summit and holding bilateral meetings with leaders including Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Lee also agreed with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to launch procurement agreement talks and proposed joint defense research, procurement, and operations programs before departing for Mongolia. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 8

Vietnam

Vietnam, France push forward Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Foreign Minister Le Hoai Trung and French Secretary-General Martin Briens discussed implementing the Vietnam-France Comprehensive Strategic Partnership action plan in Hanoi. Priorities include defense, security, energy, strategic infrastructure, trade, investment, critical minerals, science, technology, innovation, healthcare, culture, and local cooperation. France also signaled support on EVIPA ratification, OECD-related issues, and removal of the EU “yellow card” on Vietnamese seafood. Vietnam News, July 8

Myanmar

Regime renews push to oust Myanmar’s UN ambassador. Myanmar’s junta renewed demands for the UN to remove ambassador U Kyaw Moe Tun and approve its nominee after Min Aung Hlaing secured Chinese support for Myanmar’s participation in ASEAN and UN processes. The regime’s latest open letter attacked U Kyaw Moe Tun, the National Unity Government, and People’s Defense Forces, while the UN has continued recognizing the envoy appointed under the civilian government. The Irrawaddy, July 8

Philippines

No other evidence to prove Sara hired assassin - defense. Vice President Sara Duterte’s defense team said prosecutors had no competent evidence proving she hired an assassin to kill President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., First Lady Liza Marcos, and former Speaker Martin Romualdez. Defense counsel Mark Vinluan argued Duterte’s statements reflected fear for her family after alleged threats, while prosecutors said NBI special agent John Mark Calilung’s testimony remained consistent under cross-examination. Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, July 8

Public trust, satisfaction in Marcos administration up. Public trust in the Marcos administration rose to 32%, while satisfaction increased to 35%, according to a Tangere survey conducted from June 23 to 27. Negative sentiment still outweighed positive perceptions. Education Secretary Juan Edgardo Angara led Cabinet trust ratings with 50.23%, while Social Welfare Secretary Rex Gatchalian ranked first in satisfaction with 48.0%. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, July 8

Taiwan

Chinese research vessels serve military purposes: Coast Guard captain. Taiwan Coast Guard captain Arthur Yang said China’s research and survey vessels east of Taiwan and beyond serve military goals by collecting bathymetric and hydrographic data for anti-access and area-denial planning. Yang said Chinese vessels have mapped waters east of Taiwan, the Bashi Channel, the second and third island chains, and parts of the Arctic and Atlantic oceans. Sean Lin, Focus Taiwan, July 8

AIT says U.S. policy, commitment to Taiwan unchanged amid TAO criticism. The American Institute in Taiwan said U.S. policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged after China’s Taiwan Affairs Office criticized AIT Director Raymond Greene’s remarks on drone cooperation. AIT said Washington’s commitment endures under the Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-China joint communiqués, and the Six Assurances, while analysts said Beijing was warning both Washington and Taipei over Taiwan’s defense development. Yang Yao-ju, Lee Ya-wen, Chang Shu-ling, and Wu Kuan-hsien, Focus Taiwan, July 8

China's actions risk creation of new status quo, Taiwan official says. Taiwan Ocean Affairs Council head Kuan Bi-ling warned that China’s intensifying “grey zone” tactics could gradually create a new status quo in the Taiwan Strait without triggering a single decisive crisis. She said Beijing’s pressure extends to Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines, and could affect shipping routes, insurance risk assessments and frontline personnel. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, July 8

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan, Iran sign deal to build logistics terminal at Shahid Rajaee Port. Kazakhstan and Iran signed a Build-Operate-Transfer agreement to construct a Kazakh transport and logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee Port in Bandar Abbas. The 27-year deal includes two years for construction and 25 years of operation, with commercial operations expected in the third year. The project aims to expand Kazakhstan’s export routes and improve regional supply-chain resilience. Dana Omirgazy, The Astana Times, July 8

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan commit to developing strategic partnership. Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov agreed to lay the groundwork for a strategic partnership and expand trade, economic, and investment cooperation, though no major trade deals were announced. Kyrgyzstan is pursuing closer ties with Pakistan to improve access to deep-water ports, including through routes via China and the planned China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Eurasianet, July 8

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Strategic neutrality is Asia’s new competitive advantage. Asian growth strategies must account for U.S.-China rivalry, supply-chain risk and capital flows that follow political alignment. Dependence on U.S. demand and Chinese inputs makes choosing sides costly. Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and India gain by engaging major powers across sectors though strategic technologies limit neutrality. Flexible alignment, trade diversification and resource partnerships can attract investment, protect autonomy and turn geopolitical positioning into a source of economic advantage for regional growth. Sonal Varma, Nikkei Asia, July 8

AI is no panacea for Asian retail. As physical retail rebounds across Asia, AI is spreading through inventory, forecasting, chatbots, signage and checkout systems. Consumer trust remains uneven, with Hong Kong and Singapore showing hesitation toward conversational AI and payment-linked recommendations. Tourism markets require human service, cultural texture and staff-led encounters. Retailers should automate routine functions while preserving high-trust interactions that make regional marketplaces attractive. Adam Au, East Asia Forum, July 8

East Asia

Ambiguity is a feature, not a bug, of China’s security order. China’s three nos doctrine now masks a security architecture built around flexibility, overseas access and selective restraint. Beijing deepens useful partnerships without alliance labels, as with Russia, while hollowing out restrictive commitments, as with North Korea. In Myanmar, Djibouti, Cambodia, and the Gulf of Aden, China expands protection, access, and naval presence while preserving deniability, optionality, and formal distance from treaty obligations. Guangyi Pan, East Asia Forum, July 8

From Space to the Polar Depths: China Aims for a Three-Dimensional Presence in the Arctic. China’s Arctic submersible dives, AUV tests and space-ground-sea monitoring ambitions show a push to occupy polar, deep-sea and space frontiers. Beijing treats these domains as economic opportunities and future arenas of great-power contest. Research vessels, icebreakers, polar acoustics and underwater data collection expand scientific reach with dual-use value. Permanent presence remains limited, but Arctic states must track capability growth across surface, undersea and orbital layers in future expeditions and campaigns. Matti Puranen and Sasu Katajamäki, China Observers, July 8

China’s SLBM Test Underscores the Importance of a Ballistic Missile Launch Notification Agreement. China’s July 6 SLBM test from the South China Sea marked its first submarine-launched ballistic missile shot into open international waters and displayed a sea-based nuclear strike capability. The flight crossed about 7,300 kilometers and may have overflown the Philippines. Ad hoc notice to select states fell short of Hague Code norms. A formal launch notification agreement would reduce miscalculation, strengthen transparency and limit crisis risk during future test cycles. Joseph Rodgers, Bonny Lin and Leon Li, Center for Strategic and International Studies, July 7

Export Nation or Ecosystem Power: South Korea’s Choice in the AI Industrial Age. South Korea’s export model shows record strength, but China’s displacement, U.S. tariff pressure and demographic decline expose its limits. Future advantage depends on becoming an ecosystem power that controls interfaces, standards, platforms, and capital flows in AI, semiconductors, batteries, shipbuilding, and minerals. Seoul must pair domestic regulatory openness, cyber resilience, and entrepreneurial depth with allied investment structures that make Korean firms indispensable to trusted technology systems and shared industrial architecture. Navin Girishankar, Center for Strategic and International Studies, July 8

The Ukraine Lesson Taiwan Keeps Missing. Ukraine’s experience shows that drones matter when embedded in a defense ecosystem linking sensors, software, operators, engineers, manufacturers and doctrine. Taiwan has cut drone funding, kept faith in costly manned platforms, and left engineers outside military problem-solving. Deterrence requires domestic production of expendable maritime, aerial and interceptor systems, a Taiwanese battle-management network, passive sensors, electronic warfare and exercises that expose real weaknesses before missile strikes and invasion threats arrive. David Petraeus and Clara Kaluderovic, Foreign Affairs, July 8

Southeast Asia

Should Southeast Asia Fear the Second China Shock? Southeast Asia faces rising Chinese imports and a bilateral deficit, but the new China shock differs from the first. China supplies inputs, machinery, investment and technology for regional production and job creation. Textiles in Indonesia and autos in Thailand show sector pain, warranting safeguards and worker support. Open economies such as Vietnam and Malaysia gain from trade and investment while dependency risks require reforms, capability building and diversified trade networks. Roland Rajah, FULCRUM, July 8

Can the Private Sector Save Vietnam? Vietnam’s 2026 party documents reveal a shift toward party-led capitalism that strengthens centralized control while promoting private enterprise over state firms. To Lam has consolidated authority through anticorruption campaigns, party steering bodies and control over state institutions. New policies open infrastructure, offer tax and credit support, target high-value industries and streamline bureaucracy. The gamble could boost domestic champions but concentrated power may weaken checks, adaptation, regional bargaining and accountability mechanisms. Edmund J. Malesky and Viktoria Zlomanova, Foreign Affairs, July 8

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China

Beijing is looking at curbing overseas access to China's top AI models, sources say. Chinese authorities have discussed restricting overseas access to the country’s most advanced AI models, including unreleased systems, in meetings with Alibaba, ByteDance, and Z.ai. Officials also raised potential penalties for AI technology leaks or theft under national security law and possible limits on who can fund domestic AI startups, as Beijing treats frontier AI as a critical national asset. Fanny Potkin, Reuters, July 7

Xi presents orders to promote two military officers to rank of general. Xi Jinping, chairman of the Central Military Commission, presented promotion orders to two military officers at a ceremony in Beijing. Zhang Shuguang, secretary of the CMC discipline inspection commission and director of the CMC commission of supervision, and Wang Gang, commander of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force, were promoted to general, China’s highest rank for active-service officers. Global Times, July 7

Japan

Controversial bills threaten to push parliament session into overtime. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government is trying to pass remaining legislation before parliament’s scheduled July 17 recess while facing resistance over bills to reduce Lower House proportional representation seats and create a secondary capital. The JIP wants both measures passed under its coalition agreement with the LDP, while opposition parties are challenging the bills and an Imperial House Law revision. Eric Johnston, The Japan Times, July 7

China, Japan trade conflicting accounts of confrontation around Senkaku islands. China and Japan issued conflicting accounts of a confrontation near the disputed Senkaku Islands involving coast guard vessels and a Japanese fishing boat. China’s Coast Guard said it expelled a Japanese vessel from territorial waters, while Japan said it intercepted and expelled two Chinese Coast Guard ships approaching a fishing boat with two crew members aboard. Joe Cash, Mariko Katsumura, Reuters, July 7

South Korea

Lee, Canadian PM Carney discuss cooperation on defense industry, critical minerals. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney agreed to keep pursuing cooperation in defense, energy, critical minerals, and AI during talks on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara. Their meeting followed Canada’s selection of Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems as preferred bidder for a major submarine procurement project, disappointing South Korea’s bid. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 7

S. Korea, NATO to launch negotiations on basic procurement agreement: Seoul official. South Korea and NATO agreed to begin negotiations on a framework procurement agreement that could allow South Korean companies to enter NATO’s joint defense procurement market, valued at about 15 trillion won. President Lee Jae Myung and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte discussed cooperation during the NATO summit in Ankara, where Seoul also pledged US$100 million in nonlethal assistance for Ukraine. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 7

North Korea

China eyes new trade route linking Dandong and Dalian. China is pursuing a Dandong-Dalian logistics link to expand trade with North Korea by connecting land and sea routes in Liaoning province. Current trade remains limited by sanctions and relatively low volumes, with goods largely confined to construction materials, equipment, heavy machinery, raw materials, and commission processing. Local observers view the plan as a long-term strategy for future cooperation. Seon Hwa, Daily NK, July 7

Thailand

PM brushes aside cabinet reshuffle talk. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said there are no immediate plans for a cabinet reshuffle and ministers will be judged by policy implementation rather than media exposure. He urged ministries to better communicate government achievements, while senior coalition figures denied internal divisions. A Nida Poll showed declining support for Anutin and Bhumjaithai, with the People’s Party leading party preference. Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, July 7

Govt backs new amnesty bill. Thailand’s government coalition agreed to support Senate amendments to the peaceful society promotion bill, an amnesty measure for politically motivated conflicts. Chief government whip Korrawee Prissananantakul said the revisions only refined wording and did not alter the bill’s principles. Pheu Thai accepted the Senate’s exclusion of Section 112 offences, citing existing protections for minors and relief for more than 6,000 political-case defendants. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, July 7

Myanmar

Myanmar regime’s Karen border offensive spills over into Thailand. Myanmar’s military has intensified drone and artillery attacks on Min Let Pan village in Karen State as regime and allied forces try to advance against KNLA-led resistance defenses near Myawaddy. Shells and machinegun fire have crossed into Thailand’s Mae Sot district, prompting tighter border security, closure of informal crossings, and warnings for civilians as displaced villagers face reduced access to food. Phoe Tar, The Irrawaddy, July 7

Philippines

Philippines' VP Duterte remains defiant as trial turns to alleged threats against Marcos. Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte briefly appeared at the Senate before her impeachment trial resumed, while her lawyers represented her in proceedings. Prosecutors focused on allegations that she threatened President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the first lady, and a former House Speaker, playing video clips authenticated by a National Bureau of Investigation official. Duterte denies wrongdoing and calls the impeachment politically motivated. Nestor Corrales, Reuters, July 7

VP Sara again asks SC to stop her trial. Lawyers for Vice President Sara Duterte again asked the Supreme Court to halt her impeachment trial, challenging the authority of Sen. Francis Escudero as presiding officer. Prosecutors presented an NBI cybercrime investigator as their first witness to authenticate videos of Duterte’s alleged threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., first lady Liza Araneta-Marcos and former Speaker Martin Romualdez. Franco Jose C. Baroña, Red Mendoza, Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, July 7

Indonesia

Indonesia, India sign agriculture, critical minerals and missile deals. Indonesia and India signed deals covering critical minerals, agriculture, defense, and the BrahMos cruise missile system during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Jakarta. The countries also agreed to strengthen critical minerals and steel supply chains, establish a stainless steel slab joint venture in Indonesia, accelerate preferential trade talks, and promote maritime security in the Indian Ocean. Stanley Widianto, Sakshi Dayal, Reuters, July 7

Taiwan

Taiwan's preparations to face a Chinese attack are not a provocation, senior official says. Taiwan’s security official Lin Fei-fan said the island’s preparations for a possible Chinese attack are defensive, not provocative. Taiwan has increased military spending and civil defense drills as China continues daily military activity around the island. Lin said Beijing’s preparations point toward military aggression and warned that Taiwan must build resilience before a crisis occurs. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, July 7

Duckworth reaffirms U.S. commitment in wake of Trump-Xi summit. U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth said her Taiwan visit was meant to reaffirm that congressional support for Taiwan remains steadfast regardless of president or party. Meeting President Lai Ching-te after the Trump-Xi summit, she said U.S.-Taiwan ties are strong and enduring, warned that a Taiwan Strait crisis could cost the global economy US$10 trillion, and pledged continued bipartisan backing for Taiwan’s security. Joseph Yeh, Focus Taiwan, July 7

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan's top court says president can seek another term. Kazakhstan’s constitutional court ruled that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is eligible to seek another term under a new constitution that took effect last week. The decision resets the term limit calculation, excluding time served under the old basic law. The new constitution keeps a single seven-year presidential term, creates a vice presidency, and streamlines parliament into one chamber. Felix Light, Mariya Gordeyeva, Reuters, July 7

Kazakhstan, six other OPEC+ members approve August oil production adjustment. Kazakhstan and six other OPEC+ members agreed to implement an 188,000-barrel-per-day production adjustment in August after reviewing market conditions and the outlook. Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia reaffirmed their commitment to market stability, compensation for overproduced volumes, and monthly reviews of compliance and production policy. Dana Omirgazy, The Astana Times, July 7

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan signs contract for new Tashkent airport, construction to run through 2030. Uzbekistan Airports signed a public-private partnership with a consortium led by Saudi Arabia’s Vision Invest to build and operate a new international airport in the Tashkent region. The project includes defined investor shares, a 35-year operating term, two 4-kilometer runways, a 208,000-square-meter terminal, and commissioning planned for late 2030. Tamila Olzhbaekova, The Times of Central Asia, July 7

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East Asia

Xi Is Defining History on His Own Terms. Xi Jinping’s “New Era” divides Communist Party history into revolution, construction, reform, and his own stage after 2012. This framing ends reform as China’s defining period and elevates Xi above Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Deng Xiaoping. Reform remains in the official language, but now serves party control, security, self-reliance, and Chinese modernization rather than openness, markets, and social space. Deng Yuwen, Foreign Policy, July 7

China’s semiconductor industry is racing to catch the West’s. China has advanced in chip design as export controls pushed firms toward domestic processors, creating a protected market for Huawei, Alibaba, Baidu, Cambricon, and others. Demand for AI compute is vast, and engineers are improving hardware, software, and packaging workarounds. Manufacturing remains the barrier. Domestic foundries lack EUV lithography, high bandwidth memory is scarce, and advanced production still trails Western and allied suppliers. The Economist, July 7

China’s Customs-BOP Gap Is Not a Customs Problem. China’s current account surplus appears smaller than its customs goods surplus because of a disputed goods balance adjustment and an unexplained investment income deficit. Partner mirror data from major trading partners does not support claims that customs misreporting drives the gap. The divergence points inside SAFE’s balance of payments construction, leaving bonded-warehouse accounting, reclassification, transfer pricing, or residual smoothing as explanations for a surplus larger than reported. Brad W. Setser, Council on Foreign Relations, July 7

Hormuz tests the PRC petrochemical build-out. China handled the Hormuz shock by drawing reserves, reducing crude imports, and using petrochemical capacity as strategic insurance. Overcapacity has lowered profits and triggered dumping claims, but planners value supply security under blockade. Coal-based chemicals offer resilience at high carbon cost, while advanced materials remain weak. Beijing now combines standards, funding, procurement, and multinational investment to close gaps that process knowledge cannot solve. CHINA POLICY, July 7

China’s moment to shape a new global order. China uses visits by Trump and Putin, warmer ties with Western leaders, and regional gains to advance a post-US global order. Beijing frames US ties as managed competition, seeks respect for its system and core interests, and sets red lines on Taiwan. Its partnership with Russia promotes equal multilateralism, yet selective rule adherence may limit legitimacy and expose hegemonic habits. Claus Soong, Merics, July 7

What China really wants from global governance. China’s global governance white paper uses familiar language on sovereignty, the UN, multilateralism, and developing countries, yet serves a changed purpose. Beijing now seeks to turn its rise into greater power over institutions, rules, finance, standards, and global narratives. By presenting its agenda as a Global South demand, China aims to constrain US influence, preserve useful parts of the system, and reshape authority within it. Deng Yuwen, ThinkChina, July 7

Taiwan Believes Japan Will Help Defend Against China. Taiwanese voters hold positive views of Japan and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi across party lines, including many KMT and TPP supporters. An April survey of 1,195 voters found that many expect Japan to aid Taiwan during a China conflict, with views of Takaichi shaping confidence. Perceptions of Japanese and US support move together, framing a Taiwan contingency as a regional security crisis. Lev Nachman, Wei-Ting Yen, Foreign Policy, July 7

Southeast Asia

Law alone won’t save the South China Sea. A decade after the 2016 arbitration, the South China Sea remains tense despite the ruling against China’s nine-dash line claims. Sovereignty questions remain unresolved, enforcement is absent, and clashes persist as coast guards and navies expand operations. Stability needs UNCLOS, diplomacy, crisis management, practical cooperation, and a meaningful ASEAN-China Code of Conduct covering biodiversity, fishing, shipping, disaster response, and blue economy initiatives. Ngeow Chow Bing, ThinkChina, July 7

Indonesia’s export scheme may clash with WTO rules. Indonesia’s plan to centralize strategic commodity exports through Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia seeks to curb mis-invoicing, yet its design risks breaching WTO disciplines. Selective partner choice, price setting, or export limits could violate most-favored-nation and quantitative restriction rules. A commercial body focused on policing trade may fail state trading enterprise standards, while customs cooperation, tax integration, and transfer pricing checks offer safer compliance paths for Indonesia’s economic diplomacy and credibility. Farhan Julianto, East Asia Forum, July 7

Thailand’s energy crisis demands more than short-term remedies. Thailand’s exposure to Middle Eastern oil, gas, and fertilizer has pushed fuel, urea, consumer, and producer prices higher after the US-Israel war on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closure. Short-term measures have eased pressure, yet subsidy cuts, broad loans, and electric vehicle incentives lack coherence. Bangkok needs supplier diversification, energy infrastructure, water management, crop research, fiscal reform, and sustained restructuring tied to Thailand 4.0 goals. Juthathip Jongwanich, East Asia Forum, July 7

Oceania

Beijing’s own goal in the Pacific. China’s submarine missile test into Pacific waters undercut its regional message as Australia signed security pacts with Vanuatu and Fiji. The launch gave Pacific leaders a clear example of outside powers treating the region as a stage for rivalry. Albanese can use the moment to support security partnerships that offer agency, consultation, and concrete benefits while strengthening Australia’s case for Pacific engagement at home and abroad. Oliver Nobetau, Lowy Institute, July 7

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China

China test-launches a ballistic missile in the South Pacific and raises regional concerns. China’s navy test-launched a long-range ballistic missile with a dummy warhead from a nuclear-powered submarine in the South Pacific. Beijing described the launch as routine annual training that followed international law and was not directed at any country. Australia, Japan, and New Zealand criticized the test, with Wellington noting it occurred in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone. Analysts said the launch signaled that China’s nuclear deterrent is expanding beyond land-based missiles. Huizhong Wu and Charlotte Graham-McLay, Associated Press, July 6

Christian NGO welcomes release of pastor held in southern China. ChinaAid welcomed the release of Zion Church Pastor Jin Mingri, who had been detained in Beihai since October and arrived in Los Angeles on July 4. Eighteen Zion Church leaders, including Jin, were arrested last November on charges of illegally using information networks. Jin’s daughter Grace said eight church members remain detained. The family credited intervention from Xi Jinping after Donald Trump raised the case during his May trip to Beijing. Reuters, July 5

Alibaba wins reprieve on U.S. lobbying after Pentagon blacklisted companies. Alibaba secured temporary relief from a U.S. lobbying restriction tied to the Pentagon’s Section 1260H blacklist, allowing the company to resume lobbying while a California court considers its constitutional challenge. The company denies ties to China’s military and argues the lobbying ban violates due process and free speech rights. The broader case could affect how Washington uses the military-civil fusion blacklist against Chinese technology firms. Ann Cao, South China Morning Post, July 6

China dismisses US, EU criticism of new ethnic law as 'malicious smear'. China rejected U.S. and EU concern over an ethnic unity law that took effect Wednesday, calling the criticism interference and a smear. The measure seeks a shared national identity among 55 ethnic minority groups and allows action against people abroad accused of separatism. Taiwan warned the law has global reach and could threaten Taiwanese travelers in countries with close Beijing ties through extradition risk or prosecution under Chinese authority. Joe Cash and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, July 3

Japan

Japan, India vow cooperation on security and the economy. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged cooperation on security, economic security, energy, and growth during a New Delhi summit. Japan seeks closer ties with India to counter China’s influence and strengthen supply chains in semiconductors, critical minerals, and petroleum reserves. The leaders agreed on joint exercises, defense collaboration, a two-plus-two meeting, investment support involving about 150 Japanese firms, and AI talent exchanges. Yuta Ogi and Akiko Suzuki, The Asahi Shimbun, July 3

LDP to halt debate on JIP priorities to focus on imperial family bill. The Liberal Democratic Party said it would pause debate on Japan Innovation Party priorities, including Lower House seat cuts and a secondary capital, to concentrate on revising the Imperial House Law. Opposition parties sought a calm setting for imperial family deliberations after the ruling bloc began bill debates without their consent. Speaker Eisuke Mori urged both sides to restore Diet business as both chambers suspended bill discussions on Thursday. The Japan Times, July 2

South Korea

South Korean president to attend NATO summit in Ankara, visit Mongolia. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will attend a NATO summit in Ankara from July 7 to 8 to deepen defense industry cooperation with NATO members. He will meet Secretary General Mark Rutte, join Indo-Pacific leaders, and speak at a defense forum. Lee then visits Mongolia on July 9 for talks, agreements, and cooperation on critical minerals and Korean Peninsula peace through close ties with North Korea. Heejin Kim and Kyu-Seok Shim, Reuters, July 3

Lee says despite failure, Canada submarine bid showed South Korea’s potential. President Lee Jae Myung said Canada’s decision to choose Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems was disappointing but showed South Korea’s submarine competitiveness. He pledged continued support for research, exports, and international cooperation in the sector. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, July 7

Iran invited S. Korea to late supreme leader's funeral, later canceled plan: sources. Iran invited South Korea to attend a funeral event for former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, then withdrew the invitation, Seoul diplomatic sources said. A foreign ministry official said Iran cited venue issues. Observers said Tehran appeared to prioritize high-level delegations over condolences from foreign missions. South Korea accepted the change while weighing ties with Washington after Khamenei was killed in February U.S. and Israeli attacks. Kang Yoon-seung, Yonhap News Agency, July 5

Vietnam

Top leader receives newly accredited ambassadors from Portugal, Iran, Mongolia, U.S., Myanmar. To Lam received new ambassadors from Portugal, Iran, Mongolia, the U.S., and Myanmar as they began their missions in Vietnam. Talks focused on expanding trade, investment, technology, energy, education, tourism, regional cooperation, and implementation of key bilateral partnerships. Vietnam News, July 7

Thailand

Opposition party pushes for quick charter changes. Opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut urged parliament to start section by section constitutional amendments during the July 7 to 8 session while broader reform plans await civil society and party drafts. The People’s Party supports action on nonpolitical sections such as the 20-Year National Strategy and Section 236. More contested issues, including the Senate and independent organizations, need negotiation, with civil society seeking 50,000 endorsements before submission. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, July 3

People’s Party leadership under scrutiny. Thailand’s People’s Party faces scrutiny after weak results in Bangkok and Pattaya executive races, despite retaining the largest bloc on Bangkok’s council. Analysts cited candidate selection, leadership questions, and limits of party branding when voters choose administrators. A local administration exam-rigging scandal involved altered answer sheets, alleged payments, and pressure on Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul to show accountability as Interior Minister during the current public probe and NACC investigative reach. Bangkok Post Public Company Limited, Bangkok Post, July 4

Myanmar

Myanmar coup leader bets on Beijing’s global initiatives to secure new regime. Min Aung Hlaing signed memoranda on all four of Xi Jinping’s Global Initiatives, signaling deeper alignment with Beijing. Experts said Chinese political, financial, and military support has become central to the regime’s survival, while Myanmar pledged border security, Belt and Road acceleration, and protection for Chinese personnel. The Irrawaddy, July 6

Cambodia

Investigation underway after border blast injures four Cambodian soldiers. Cambodia’s Defence Ministry said four soldiers were injured by shrapnel during a patrol in Oddar Meanchey province near the Thai border. Officials said the blast occurred as Cambodian troops passed a Thai patrol across a barbed-wire fence, and technical experts are investigating the cause. Meng Seavmey, Cambodianess, July 6

Cambodia briefs envoys on Thai border build-up. Cambodia briefed 42 diplomatic and international representatives on Thai troop reinforcement in occupied border areas. Acting Foreign Minister Eat Sophea urged resumption of Joint Boundary Commission survey and demarcation work, while reaffirming Cambodia’s commitment to resolving disputes peacefully under international law. Rin Ousa, Cambodianess, July 6

Philippines

VP Sara a no-show on trial’s first day. Vice President Sara Duterte did not appear in person as the Senate opened her impeachment trial, saying she would appear through counsel. The court convened with 21 senator-judges, elected Francis Escudero presiding officer, and received appearances from the prosecution and defense panels. Bernadette E. Tamayo, Javier Joe Ismael, and Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, July 6

VP trial starts: Escudero presides, sets rules. The Senate impeachment court elected Francis Escudero to preside over Vice President Sara Duterte’s trial after a 12-8 vote and objections from the Cayetano-led minority. Escudero set key procedures, including a 16-vote threshold for conviction and rules on evidence presentation. Keith Clores, Kenneth Christiane Basilio, and Tina G. Santos, Philippine Daily Inquirer, July 7

Indonesia

Prabowo welcomes Modi at airport as Indonesia, India seek stronger ties. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Jakarta for a three-day official visit aimed at strengthening bilateral ties. President Prabowo Subianto welcomed him at Halim Perdanakusuma Air Force Base with an honor guard and ceremonial gun salute. Modi is scheduled for bilateral talks, a state banquet, an address to the Indian community, and a visit to Prambanan Temple. The Jakarta Globe, July 6

Full list of agreements from Indonesia-Singapore Leaders’ Retreat. Indonesia and Singapore signed 26 cooperation agreements during the annual Leaders’ Retreat at the Merdeka Palace. President Prabowo Subianto said the agreements included 18 government-to-government documents and eight business-to-business deals covering economic cooperation, supply chain resilience, carbon credits, defense, cross-border electricity trade, digital infrastructure, AI trade advisory services, air connectivity, industrial estates, and renewable energy projects. ANTARA News, July 6

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan looks to open trade outpost at Iranian port. Kazakhstan plans to build a privately financed terminal at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port to support exports, with lease terms reportedly in the final stage. Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin said the 15-hectare facility would connect Kazakhstan to markets in India, East Africa, the Persian Gulf, and Southeast Asia, while the government also pursues alternative routes through Afghanistan and Pakistan. Eurasianet, July 6

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan launches Tamchy Financial Zone to attract foreign capital. Kyrgyzstan inaugurated the Tamchy Special Financial Investment Territory near Lake Issyk-Kul to attract foreign capital and develop a regional financial hub. The 6,000-hectare zone offers English common law, a zero-tax regime for 49 years, full profit repatriation, and independent dispute resolution. President Sadyr Japarov said more than 3,900 resident companies and over 10,000 jobs are expected by 2035. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, July 6

Kyrgyzstan: Former state security chief gets probation for conspiring against president. Former Kyrgyz state security chief Kamchybek Tashiev was convicted on a coup conspiracy charge and given a four-year prison sentence that was immediately commuted to probation. Two co-defendants received similar outcomes, five others were released, and all were acquitted of abuse of power. Tashiev denied the charge and plans to appeal after being dismissed in February during a security services purge. Eurasianet, July 6

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East Asia

The U.S. Can’t ‘Yield Even an Inch’ to Xi, Top Democrat Says. Sen. Tammy Duckworth is visiting Taiwan to reaffirm U.S. security commitments amid concern over President Trump’s China policy and delayed arms package. She warns against concessions to Xi Jinping and stresses Taiwan’s role in semiconductors, shipping, and Indo-Pacific security. The trip seeks to reassure allies, support investment in Illinois, and defend bipartisan backing for Taiwan despite anxiety over Beijing’s pressure and Washington’s negotiating posture. John Haltiwanger, Foreign Policy, July 6

How China’s Quantum Race Threatens Nuclear Deterrence. China’s quantum advances are reshaping military competition by threatening encryption, surveillance, targeting, navigation, and nuclear command systems. Quantum computing could break current cryptography, while sensing and radar may expose submarines, stealth aircraft, and second-strike forces. Beijing’s large state program and PLA integration have sharpened US concern. Existing arms control tools offer no clear framework, making post-quantum cryptography, allied intelligence sharing, and quantum stability talks urgent priorities for strategic security. Tahir Mahmood Azad, ThinkChina, July 6

The UAE and Japan have an enduring partnership, built to last. The UAE and Japan mark 64 years of energy ties rooted in crude and LNG trade. The UAE supplies one-third of Japan’s crude imports, supports strategic reserves in Kagoshima, and plans higher output capacity. Both sides concluded talks on a trade pact and aim to expand LNG, low-carbon ammonia, renewables, industrial technology, logistics, and investment while maintaining reliable oil and gas flows for Japan’s economic security, growth, and resilience goals. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Nikkei Asia, July 6

Southeast Asia

China’s Sanctions on Philippine Defense Chief: Disrupting A Diplomatic Thaw. China’s travel and business ban on Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro threatens a fragile easing in relations with Manila. The sanctions followed his Shangri-La Dialogue remarks criticizing negotiations with Beijing and dismissing Chinese fuel and fertilizer aid. The move may weaken defense contacts, coast guard talks, ASEAN diplomacy on the South China Sea, tourism growth, and Chinese investment interest, while raising risks of accident, distrust, and nationalist backlash at sea. Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, China-US Focus, July 6

Cambodia’s Crackdown on Scams Needs a Concrete and Durable Strategy. Cambodia has strengthened its campaign against online scam networks through a new law, the CCOS coordination body, raids, casino license revocations, and deportations. Yet scam operations remain transnational, adaptive, and tied to trafficking, money laundering, corruption, weak regulation, porous borders, and digital vulnerabilities. Durable progress requires stronger prosecutions, financial disruption, transparent reporting, victim protection, border and telecom controls, and institutionalized cooperation with regional and global partners. Vannarith Chheang, Fulcrum, July 6

South Asia

India Can No Longer Take Nepal for Granted. Nepal is moving beyond India’s traditional sphere as China and the United States expand influence in Kathmandu. Beijing has built political and economic ties linked to Tibet and regional strategy, while Washington treats Nepal as an independent strategic actor. Nepali leaders use rivalry among larger powers to gain investment, aid, technology, and diplomatic room. India retains cultural, geographic, and social advantages, but influence now requires sustained engagement and competitive statecraft. Brahma Chellaney, Nikkei Asia, July 7

Are U.S.-India Ties Really Thawing? Washington and New Delhi are close to a trade deal, yet mistrust remains after tariffs, visa fees, Russian oil sanctions, Pakistan diplomacy, and Iran war pressures. India seeks lower levies than Asian competitors, while the United States wants forced labor assurances. Trade barriers, investment limits, reliance on Russia, and rigid diplomacy weakened India’s position, though defense, naval, technology, and democratic ties still support recovery if leaders manage remaining disputes ahead. Sumit Ganguly, Foreign Policy, July 6

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China

China’s Wang Yi warns Marco Rubio to approach Taiwan affairs with ‘utmost caution’. Wang Yi told Marco Rubio that China and the U.S. should expand cooperation, reduce problems, and manage risks after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed on a “constructive” and “strategically stable” relationship. Wang said Taiwan-related affairs require the utmost caution and warned that mishandling the issue could push ties into an extremely dangerous situation. Dewey Sim, South China Morning Post, July 1

Washington, Beijing should de-escalate from tit-for-tat actions, U.S. senator says. Senator Steve Daines said recent U.S.-China retaliatory measures were unfortunate and urged both sides to de-escalate after the Beijing summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. China placed export controls on 10 American firms, including MP Materials and USA Rare Earths, and barred 46 U.S. companies from government procurement. The rules restrict exports of dual-use goods to the targeted firms and prohibit worldwide transfers of China-origin dual-use items to them. Nayan Seth, South China Morning Post, June 30

China’s Wang Yi reaffirms support for Mideast talks in meeting with top Saudi diplomat. Wang Yi told Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud that China supports sustained dialogue in the Middle East and is ready to work with Riyadh to ease tensions. Wang said the priority is implementing the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, maintaining momentum toward a comprehensive agreement, and restoring normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Carol Yang and Fan Chen, South China Morning Post, July 1

Russia approved secret China military training at top level, sources say. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov approved covert training for Russian forces in China in 2025, according to officials and documents reviewed by Reuters. The exchanges involved senior Russian and Chinese officers and included a three-week course on radiological, chemical, and biological protection at a military facility in Beijing. Reports described Russian soldiers receiving instruction on chemical and radiation reconnaissance and contamination protection. European officials said the training raised concern over China-Russia defense ties, while Beijing denied the allegations. Reuters, July 1

China’s Xi urges ruling Communist Party to be adaptable, safeguard advances. Xi Jinping told Communist Party cadres to adapt to changing circumstances while protecting the party’s achievements during celebrations marking its 105th anniversary. He said China faces both strategic opportunities and risks, called for stronger coordination on domestic and international challenges, and urged members to preserve party purity. Xi also reiterated Beijing’s Taiwan strategy, while Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council dismissed his remarks as old talking points and called for dialogue without preconditions. Liz Lee and Farah Master, Reuters, July 1

Japan

Japan weighs state ownership of defense plants to boost arms supply. Japan is considering rule changes that would allow state ownership of some defense production facilities to secure stable domestic supplies of ammunition and other critical equipment during a prolonged contingency. The proposal, included in a draft of the government’s basic economic and fiscal policy guidelines, could introduce a government-owned, contractor-operated model in which the state owns selected facilities while private companies handle daily operations. Kenji Yoshida, The Japan Times, July 1

South Korea

Lee asks for swift passage of key bills in meeting with DP leadership. President Lee Jae Myung asked the ruling Democratic Party’s new floor leadership to accelerate legislation tied to his administration’s key policy agenda in the second half of the year. DP floor leader Han Byung-do pledged support for the president’s three major national projects and their successful implementation through needed bills. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, July 1

Special counsel seeks arrest warrant for ex-Coast Guard chief over alleged martial law role. A special counsel team requested arrest warrants for former Coast Guard chief Kim Jong-uk and former planning official Ahn Sung-sik over alleged roles in former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed martial law bid. Investigators suspect Kim discussed sending Coast Guard investigators to a martial law investigation headquarters, while Ahn allegedly ordered detention facilities reorganized for possible detainees. Both warrant requests cite charges of assisting an insurrection and abuse of power. Kim Seonghun, Yonhap News Agency, July 1

Lee vows continued efforts to replace inter-Korean armistice with peace regime. President Lee Jae Myung said South Korea will keep trying to engage North Korea and replace the Korean War armistice with a peace regime. He said peace is necessary to create a “Korea premium” for the peninsula, pledged continued dialogue efforts despite Pyongyang’s silence, and reaffirmed commitments to respect North Korea’s system, avoid absorption-based unification, and refrain from hostile actions. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 1

North Korea

Opening of North Korea-Russia road bridge likely delayed, U.S. think tank says. North Korea and Russia are unlikely to open their first road bridge soon because Russian-side facilities remain unfinished, according to 38 North satellite imagery analysis. The 850-meter bridge over the Tumen River was agreed during Vladimir Putin’s 2024 visit to Pyongyang, and Russia’s embassy had projected a June 19 opening. The bridge itself appears complete, and North Korean facilities are largely finished, but Russia’s customs complex still needs substantial work. Kyu-Seok Shim, Reuters, July 1

Photo display of N. Korean Embassy in Beijing features more photos of leader Kim's daughter. North Korea’s embassy in Beijing updated its outdoor bulletin board with 25 new images centered on Kim Jong-un and his domestic inspection trips from 2016 through February. Six photos now feature Kim’s daughter Ju-ae, up from three in March, though none identify her by name. The display included recent images of Kim visiting a livestock farm and attending a construction completion ceremony with Ju-ae, reinforcing Pyongyang’s use of embassy imagery to project political messages abroad on its own schedule. Woo Jae-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, July 1

N. Korea's Kim vows strong ties with China on founding anniversary of Chinese Communist Party. Kim Jong-un sent Xi Jinping a congratulatory message marking the Chinese Communist Party’s 105th anniversary and reaffirmed his commitment to stronger North Korea-China ties. Kim recalled Xi’s June visit to Pyongyang as a historic moment of friendship, trust, and renewed commitment to socialist construction and traditional relations. Chinese Ambassador Wang Yajun said Beijing wants deeper strategic communication and exchanges with Pyongyang, while senior North Korean officials attended an embassy banquet marking the anniversary. Woo Jae-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, July 1

Thailand

Bhumjaithai: Principles unchanged in revised amnesty bill. Bhumjaithai MP Nikorn Chamnong said the House should approve the Senate-amended political amnesty bill because the revisions are mainly technical and do not alter core exclusions for corruption, lese-majeste cases, and offences causing death or harm. Election fraud, electoral misconduct, and false qualifications also remain excluded. The bill could reach the House before the session ends on July 11, while the People’s Party remains opposed because cases involving political expression are still excluded from amnesty. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, July 1

Court to hear Move Forward Party case in August. Thailand’s Supreme Court scheduled an Aug. 25 first witness hearing in a case against 44 former Move Forward Party MPs accused of serious ethical misconduct for submitting a bill to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code. Ten respondents are now People’s Party members, including leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut. The court accepted written objections, set evidence examination for Aug. 4, planned hearings through October, and rejected a separate petition seeking Natthaphong’s suspension. Wassayos Ngamkham, Bangkok Post, July 1

Myanmar

Myanmar set to restart contentious $3.6 billion dam project backed by China. Myanmar’s government aims to restart the Myitsone dam project in Kachin State and complete it within about eight years. Min Aung Hlaing’s visit to China renewed momentum behind the project, which was suspended in 2011 after public opposition over environmental damage, displacement, and plans to export most power to China. Officials said the project could address Myanmar’s electricity shortage, while civil society groups warned it would bring severe destruction and loss. Reuters, July 1

Myanmar's Min Aung Hlaing to visit Laos in first ASEAN member state visit. Min Aung Hlaing will make an official visit to Laos, marking his first trip to an ASEAN member state since becoming president after a military-engineered transition. The visit follows trips to India and China and comes as ASEAN states increase engagement with Myanmar despite not endorsing its recent election. The International Crisis Group said the Laos visit marks the clearest break yet from ASEAN’s post-coup diplomatic quarantine. Reuters, July 1

Cambodia

Cambodia signals warmer U.S. relations with Independence Day message. National Assembly President Khuon Sudary sent U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson a congratulatory letter for the 250th anniversary of U.S. Independence Day, calling for stronger cooperation between the two legislatures. She described Cambodia-U.S. ties as guided by mutual respect, understanding, trust, and interests, and said both sides should promote people-centered governance, international cooperation, open multilateralism, and a rules-based international order. Sao Phal Niseiy, Cambodianess, July 1

Philippines

PH to sign energy, trade deals with Canada. The Philippines will sign agreements with Canada on energy, natural resources, trade and investment, labor and immigration, tourism, culture, and arts during President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s July 1-4 visit to Vancouver. Marcos will meet Prime Minister Mark Carney, engage Canadian business leaders, promote the Philippines as an investment destination, and attend meetings focused on mining, IT and business process management, telecommunications, nuclear energy, and financial services. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, July 1

INC plans to stage 3rd day rally at Liwasang Bonifacio. Iglesia Ni Cristo members plan to hold a third day of protest at Liwasang Bonifacio in Manila after Quezon City authorities revoked their permit for another rally at the EDSA People Power Monument. The Quezon City Department of Public Order and Safety cited disruptions to residents and alleged violations of an agreement limiting the demonstration to White Plains. Organizers said the protest would continue at Liwasang Bonifacio, a designated freedom park where no permit is required. Allen Limos, The Manila Times, July 1

Indonesia

Indonesia's June annual inflation accelerates to 3.34%. Indonesia’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.34% in June from 3.08% in May, exceeding the 3.20% median forecast in a Reuters poll. The figure moved closer to the upper end of Bank Indonesia’s 1.5% to 3.5% target range. The statistics bureau was set to release June core inflation and May trade data later the same day. Gayatri Suroyo, Stefanno Sulaiman, Fransiska Nangoy, and Bernadette Christina, Reuters, July 1

Singapore

Lawrence Wong to make first-ever visit by Singapore PM to Timor-Leste from July 2 to 3. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will visit Timor-Leste in the first trip there by a Singaporean prime minister. Singapore and Timor-Leste will establish a bilateral cooperation framework, and Wong will meet President Jose Ramos-Horta and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao. Ramos-Horta will confer the Order of Timor-Leste on Wong in recognition of Singapore’s development support and backing for Timor-Leste’s ASEAN membership. Samuel Devaraj, The Straits Times, July 1

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan to hold snap parliamentary election on August 23. Kazakhstan will hold a snap parliamentary election on Aug. 23 under a decree signed by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev as the country’s new constitution took effect. The basic law replaces the former two-chamber parliament with a smaller unicameral legislature and creates a vice-presidential post expected to be filled after the vote. Tokayev has presented the political overhaul as part of a broader break from Nursultan Nazarbayev’s legacy. Anastasia Teterevleva, Reuters, July 1

Tokayev urges faster start of construction on new airport in Astana. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called for construction of a new airport in Astana to begin quickly as Kazakhstan faces rising regional competition in transport and logistics. Astana International Airport’s domestic terminal handled 6.3 million passengers in 2025, more than double its design capacity. Tokayev also urged the creation of a national cargo airline, stronger aviation fuel infrastructure, road border checkpoint modernization, and continued railway upgrades to support transit growth. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, July 1

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan reports 34% growth in foreign direct investment in first quarter of 2026. Kyrgyzstan attracted $386.7 million in foreign direct investment in the first quarter of 2026, up 34% from a year earlier. Financial and insurance activities drew $93.6 million, manufacturing received $90.1 million, and information and communications investment rose 75% to $46.9 million. The sharpest jump came in professional, scientific, and technical activities, while Bishkek accounted for 30% of total inflows. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, July 1

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East Asia

Extreme Weather Will Upend U.S.-China Competition. Climate adaptation is becoming a test of national power in U.S.-China rivalry. China has built a broad adaptation system with provincial plans, sponge cities, grid upgrades, water projects, insurance tools, and climate-risk disclosure. Washington lacks a sustained national strategy, leaving infrastructure, AI data centers, insurance markets, and public finances exposed. Without adaptation investment, U.S. competitiveness may erode as climate shocks mount. Alice C. Hill and Mengye Zhu, Foreign Affairs, June 30

Who Is China? China’s national identity remains unsettled despite its economic and scientific rise. Xu Guoqi’s account traces how dynastic, civilizational, territorial, and communist definitions created a state that claims fixed borders while suppressing histories of conquest, diversity, and dissent. Xi Jinping’s fusion of communism and tradition has not produced a persuasive national vision. A richer, plural idea of China could offer strength, but coercion deepens insecurity. Ian Johnson, Foreign Affairs, June 23

China gains by standing aside in the Iran War. China has avoided a central role in the US-Israel war on Iran, favoring calls for de-escalation and economic engagement with Gulf states. Beijing’s Middle East strategy prioritizes infrastructure, energy, finance, technology, sovereignty, and development over military involvement. This stance has preserved Gulf ties while exposing China to energy disruption through Hormuz. A longer war could test its low-intervention approach and economic interests. Guy Burton, East Asia Forum, July 1

Too ‘cool’ to resist: China’s soft power captivates Taiwan’s youth. Chinese apps, dramas, games, consumer brands, and TikTok trends are shaping how young Taiwanese encounter mainland China. RedNote, Amap, Douyin, and TikTok bring convenience, entertainment, and lifestyle content, while raising concerns over data security, fraud cooperation, censorship, identity, and democratic resilience. Scholars call for China literacy so users understand platform governance, algorithms, political filtering, and the market forces behind China’s cultural reach. Lai Oi Lai and Zhang Guanghui, ThinkChina, July 1

The EU must confront China’s trade challenge. EU leaders face pressure to act against China’s export surge before 2027, when elections could weaken collective resolve. Delays risk manufacturing losses, stronger populist parties, and reduced leverage as Beijing shields supply chains, counters foreign pressure, and maps European vulnerabilities. New tools, including Buy European provisions, cybersecurity restrictions, and diversification requirements, have drawn Chinese objections, showing the single market can still shape outcomes. Grzegorz Stec, MERICS, July 1

China's influence pipeline is already active in Japan's information space. Chinese state media are reaching Japanese audiences through translated Xinhua content republished by aggregators, regional broadcasters, and social platforms. Opinion material can appear as neutral wire news, while consular accounts and selective amplification of local voices help frame security reforms as domestic opposition. Japan’s language and media filters are weakening as AI translation, TikTok, X, and news portals widen the channels for cognitive influence operations. Sze-Fung Lee, Nikkei Asia, July 1

Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia hedges as trust in Washington wanes. Southeast Asian states are diversifying security and economic ties as concern grows over both Washington and Beijing. Trump-era uncertainty has weakened confidence in US reliability, while China’s South China Sea activity remains a threat. Indonesia, Malaysia, and others are deepening cooperation with Australia, Japan, Canada, South Korea, France, and Turkey. This hedging could strengthen options, but pressure from both powers may strain ASEAN centrality. Aristyo Rizka Darmawan, East Asia Forum, July 1

Singapore’s Trade Agreements Show How Small States Shape Global Legal Norms. Singapore is using trade agreements to shape rules on supply-chain resilience, digital governance, and green economy cooperation. AOTES with New Zealand creates binding duties to keep essential goods moving during disruptions, while digital economy agreements have influenced WTO and ASEAN frameworks. Its incremental, modular approach lets small states socialize norms, test commitments, and strengthen the rules-based order through practical self-interest rather than undermine multilateral trade law during global economic shocks. Tristan Eng, FULCRUM, July 1

South Asia

India Should Stop Panicking About Trump. India-U.S. ties face anger over Trump’s rhetoric, Pakistan outreach, Iran policy, trade frictions, and China diplomacy, but the strategic foundation remains strong. Defense agreements, technology initiatives, maritime coordination, commerce, investment, talent flows, and the Indian American community have widened the relationship beyond episodic disputes. China’s rise keeps both states aligned around Asian balance, making tactical tensions less important than durable structural cooperation. C. Raja Mohan, Foreign Policy, July 1

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China

China appoints new civil affairs ministry party chief. Li Changguan was appointed party chief of China’s Civil Affairs Ministry after serving as a vice minister since 2024. He replaces Lu Zhiyuan, who had served as both minister and party chief since late 2023. Lu has been appointed party chief of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions. Xiuhao Chen and Ryan Woo, Reuters, June 30

U.S. is working on ban targeting Chinese energy inverters, sources say. The Trump administration is drafting a ban on new foreign inverter models over concerns that China could use devices connecting solar projects and batteries to the grid to disrupt power supplies. Sources said the FCC measure could be published this year and was partly revived after Europe banned Chinese-made inverters from some publicly funded energy projects. China, led by Sungrow and Huawei, is the world’s largest inverter maker. Alexandra Alper and Sarah Mcfarlane, Reuters, June 30

China conducts patrols around Scarborough Shoal in disputed South China Sea. China’s military and coast guard conducted patrols around Scarborough Shoal after U.S.-Philippine drills near the disputed maritime feature. The PLA said naval and air forces carried out combat-readiness patrols, while the China Coast Guard said it conducted law-enforcement patrols and regulated ships involved in unspecified illegal activities. Beijing has intensified sovereignty claims around the shoal, including through a planned nature reserve and recent research activity. Liz Lee, Reuters, June 30

China, EU officially launch trade, investment consultation mechanism. China and the European Union formally established a trade and investment consultation mechanism at its first meeting in Brussels, co-chaired by Wang Wentao and Maros Šefčovič. The sides created workstreams on trade and investment balancing, export controls, intellectual property rights, and WTO reform. They agreed to monitor trade flows, exchange data, improve transparency, discuss tariff and non-tariff market access measures, strengthen export-control dialogue on rare earths and critical materials, and support WTO reform. State Council of the People's Republic of China, June 30

Japan

Japan introduces CFIUS-style panel to shield key technologies. Japan established the cross-ministerial Japan Foreign Investment Committee to review foreign investments in domestic companies for national security risks and prevent leakage of critical technologies and information. The panel, modeled on CFIUS, is co-chaired by the Finance Ministry and National Security Secretariat, with participation from foreign, economy, trade, industry, and defense officials. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan must upgrade screening to respond effectively to risky investments. The Asahi Shimbun, June 30

Yen marks fresh 39-year low past 162 vs. dollar despite intervention concerns. The yen fell beyond 162 against the dollar in Tokyo, its weakest level since December 1986, as expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and month-end dollar buying by Japanese importers pressured the currency. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government is always ready to act if needed, but markets showed little reaction. Analysts said intervention risk would rise if the yen’s decline accelerates. Kyodo News, June 30

Lower house OKs bill outlawing flag desecration amid opposition boycott. Japan’s House of Representatives passed a bill criminalizing desecration of the national flag, though all opposition parties boycotted the vote over the ruling bloc’s handling of debate. The bill would impose up to two years in prison or a 200,000-yen fine for publicly damaging, removing, or defiling the flag in a way that causes strong discomfort or disgust. Opposition parties questioned its constitutionality and its effect on freedom of expression. Kyodo News, June 30

South Korea

S. Korea, Ukraine agree to seek resolution of N. Korean POW issue under international law. South Korea and Ukraine agreed to address North Korean prisoners of war captured in Ukraine in line with international law, humanitarian principles, and the individuals’ free will. Two North Korean soldiers captured after deployment to Russia’s Kursk region have reportedly expressed interest in coming to South Korea. Foreign ministers Cho Hyun and Andrii Sybiha also discussed Russia-North Korea military cooperation, Korean Peninsula developments, Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction, and bilateral economic ties. Oh Seok-min, Yonhap News Agency, June 30

National Assembly elects parliamentary committee chairs amid PPP opposition. The Democratic Party-controlled National Assembly elected chairs for 10 standing committees and the special budget committee after rival parties failed to agree on committee assignments. The People Power Party boycotted the plenary session, objected to the DP’s unilateral recommendations, and said it would not cooperate with committee activation. The dispute centered on control of the judiciary committee, which reviews bills before plenary votes. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, June 30

National Assembly passes confirmation motion for PM nominee. The National Assembly approved Prime Minister nominee Han Seong-sook despite a boycott by the People Power Party, which called her unfit for office. Han received 166 votes in favor among 167 lawmakers present and is set to become South Korea’s 50th prime minister and the second woman to hold the post. A former Naver chief executive and SMEs minister, Han faced opposition criticism over a personal information leak tied to a government startup incubation program. Shim Sun-ah, Yonhap News Agency, June 30

North Korea

N. Korea's port activity jumps fivefold since 2019, suggesting illicit coal trade: report. Commercial vessel activity at five major North Korean ports rose to 3,756 cases last year from 783 in 2019, according to a report using satellite imagery and AIS ship-tracking data. Nampho, the country’s largest coal export hub, recorded the steepest increase. The report said only 14% to 33% of vessels seen in satellite images appeared in AIS records, suggesting deliberate efforts to evade detection. Activity involving U.N.-sanctioned vessels reached an 11-year high after Russia’s 2024 veto ended the sanctions monitoring panel. Woo Jae-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, June 30

Vientam

Vietnam, UAE sign MoU on defence industry cooperation. Vietnam and the UAE signed a memorandum of understanding on defence industry cooperation during high-level defence ministry talks in Hanoi. Deputy Defence Minister Nguyễn Trường Thắng said bilateral defence ties have advanced under the Comprehensive Partnership and proposed stronger exchanges, dialogue mechanisms, resident defence attaché offices, and cooperation in defence industry, UN peacekeeping, military medicine, logistics, non-traditional security, and personnel training. Vietnam News, June 30

Vietnam shifts FDI attraction strategy towards higher quality, greater efficiency under new resolution. Vietnam is shifting foreign investment policy from capital attraction toward higher-quality, more efficient use of international resources alongside domestic strengths. Politburo Resolution No. 10 prioritizes advanced technology, innovation, modern governance, stronger spillover effects, green transition, domestic business linkages, and performance-based incentives. By 2030, Vietnam targets $200-300 billion in newly registered FDI, $150-200 billion in disbursed capital, and 10,000 Vietnamese firms joining foreign-invested supply chains. Vietnam News, June 30

Thailand

People's Party outlines city council priorities. The People’s Party named Bang Sue councillor-elect Pattraporn Kengrungruengchai as its candidate for Bangkok city council chair after winning 23 of 50 seats. The party’s first-six-month agenda focuses on construction-site safety, ageing-building inspections, transparency in votes and budget spending, healthcare referral improvements, long-term waste management, and AI screening of 2027 budget projects for irregularities. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, June 30

Myanmar

Regime launches committee to monitor Myanmar’s internet 24/7. Myanmar’s regime formed a committee led by Deputy Home Affairs Minister Major General Min Thu to monitor online activity around the clock for criticism of military rule. Officials said the body will track fake news, misinformation, inappropriate content, and political attacks. Min Thu said authorities took action against 21,369 online users from 2024 to May 2026, nearly 20,000 of them under counter-terrorism charges. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, June 30

Cambodia

India deepens defense ties with Cambodia with offer of drones, military technology. India offered to help modernize Cambodia’s armed forces with demining equipment, surveillance drones, and other military technology as the countries prepare to mark 75 years of diplomatic relations. Cambodia requested expanded cooperation in training, technology transfer, intelligence sharing, transnational crime, humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, peacekeeping, demining, joint exercises, and naval port visits. The partnership gives Phnom Penh another channel to diversify security ties while maintaining strategic neutrality. Teng Yalirozy, Cambodianess, June 30

Philippines

Senate ready for impeachment trial. The Philippine Senate said preparations are nearly complete for Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial, with no plan to delay proceedings. Senate President Sherwin Gatchalian said logistical, administrative, and security arrangements are in place, including controlled access routes and limited public seating. Senators will serve as judges, with conviction requiring a two-thirds vote and potentially resulting in removal from office and perpetual disqualification from public office. Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, June 30

ICC clarifies Duterte assets freeze order. Lawyer Gilbert Andres said the International Criminal Court’s freeze order involving former President Rodrigo Duterte applies only to money and items seized from him at the time of his arrest, not to his bank accounts. Andres said a public redacted defense filing showed the Trial Chamber ordered the Registry to inventory items obtained from Duterte and freeze any seized money. The amount and details were not publicly disclosed. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, June 30

Indonesia

Indonesia scales back military training for staff in President’s cooperative project after deaths. Indonesia scaled back basic military training for prospective managers of President Prabowo Subianto’s Red and White Cooperatives programme after five participants died in the first two weeks. The Defense Ministry is training nearly 35,000 people before they manage village cooperatives. Spokesman Rico Sirait said technical material, military tactics, shooting activities, and physical intensity were removed or reduced, with training refocused on character, discipline, leadership, and partnerships. Stanley Widianto, Reuters, June 30

Indonesia sentences Gojek founder to 10 years in prison in controversial graft case. An Indonesian court sentenced Gojek co-founder and former Education Minister Nadiem Makarim to 10 years in prison in a corruption case over Chromebook procurement for schools. Judges found him guilty of abuse of authority and causing state losses, while acquitting him of directly seeking personal enrichment. Makarim was ordered to pay more than $45 million or face five additional years and vowed to appeal, calling the case politically motivated. Stanley Widianto and Heru Asprihanto, Reuters, June 30

Taiwan

Keep out of China's clutches, Taiwan's president tells military cadets. President Lai Ching-te warned graduating military cadets to resist Chinese infiltration, division, sabotage, and espionage targeting Taiwan’s armed forces. Speaking at Fu Hsing Kang College, Lai urged graduates to distinguish friend from foe, uphold democracy and freedom, oppose communism, and defend national sovereignty and security. Taiwan has reported rising Chinese espionage cases, particularly inside the military, as China continues daily military activity around the island. Ben Blanchard and Ann Wang, Reuters, June 30

Two-thirds of Americans say Taiwan’s security matters to U.S.: survey. A Reagan Institute survey found that 66% of Americans believe Taiwan’s security matters to U.S. security and prosperity, including 72% of Republicans and 62% of Democrats. Concerns about China were broad, covering a possible attack on Taiwan, military buildup, human rights abuses, fentanyl flows, land purchases, spying, technology theft, and unfair trade. The survey did not ask about U.S. military intervention if China attacks Taiwan. Hung Pei-ying and Wu Kuan-hsien, Focus Taiwan, June 30

Opposition parties unveil rival drone procurement bills. Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party proposed drone procurement bills funded through the general budget rather than the Cabinet’s special budget. The KMT plan would cap spending at NT$240 billion over six years and require legislative briefings for major procurements, while the TPP plan sets no spending cap and calls for regular drone development guidelines. The ruling DPP warned that general-budget funding could strain welfare and education spending and create industry uncertainty. Wang Cheng-chung, Chen Chun-hua, and Sean Lin, Focus Taiwan, June 30

Central Asia

U.S. business push in Central Asia moves from dialogue to deals. U.S. commercial engagement in Central Asia is shifting toward investment missions, project finance, technology partnerships, and trade mechanisms. Recent activity includes AI agreements in Kazakhstan, tariff commitments from Uzbekistan, aviation talks in Kyrgyzstan, and a Kazakhstan-U.S. roundtable in Astana focused on investment, energy, infrastructure, digital transformation, transport, and logistics. Officials highlighted Kazakhstan’s mineral potential, $80 billion national investment plan, transport infrastructure, and role as an entry point for U.S. companies in the region. Askar Alimzhanov, The Times of Central Asia, June 30

Kazakhstan

New Kazakhstan constitution takes effect as political transition gathers pace. Kazakhstan’s new constitution takes effect after approval in a March referendum, creating a vice-presidential post and requiring an August snap election for a smaller parliament. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev described the shift as a major overhaul of statehood, while analysts said the vice presidency could shape succession before his single term ends in 2029. The ruling Amanat party was recently merged into the Tokayev-aligned Adilet party. Felix Light, Mariya Gordeyeva, and Tamara Vaal, Reuters, June 30

Kazakhstan seeks closer ties with Indonesia to expand Asia-Pacific reach. Kazakhstan is pursuing deeper cooperation with Indonesia to strengthen its engagement with the Asia-Pacific region. Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev said closer ties could expand opportunities in trade, investment, transport, agriculture, digital technologies, education, and tourism. Talks highlighted Kazakhstan’s investment and transit-logistics potential, complementary strategic sectors, and people-to-people links, while Indonesia was described as an important actor in Southeast Asia, ASEAN, the G20, and the Islamic world. Assel Satubaldina, The Astana Times, June 30

Tajikistan

Chinese laborers return to work on highway near Tajik-Afghan border. Chinese workers resumed construction on a 109-kilometer section of the Dushanbe-Kulma highway near Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan after work was suspended over security concerns. The pause followed attacks in late 2025 that killed Chinese nationals and road workers, which Tajik officials attributed to Islamic militants without substantiation. Tajik authorities reportedly offered enhanced protection, with special forces guarding Chinese crews and joint Tajik-Chinese security exercises planned for September. Eurasianet, June 30

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan launch joint business council to expand trade and investment. Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan established a joint Business Council during a Bishkek forum to expand bilateral trade, investment, and business missions. The council will support direct dialogue among entrepreneurs and joint initiatives in trade, agriculture, food processing, construction, and logistics. Kyrgyz exports to Afghanistan reached a record $50.4 million in 2024, while trade has accelerated since Bishkek removed the Taliban from its prohibited-organizations list and opened a Trade House in Kabul. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, June 30

Kyrgyzstan nears limit on duty-free electric vehicle imports for 2026. Kyrgyzstan has nearly exhausted its 2026 duty-free electric vehicle import quota under the Eurasian Economic Union, with 14,014 of 15,000 slots already used. Once the quota is filled, imported EVs will face a 15% customs duty. Demand has grown quickly, supported by VAT exemptions and imports exceeding 200 EVs a day, though electric vehicles still account for only about 0.8% of the national fleet. China remains the main supplier, and many vehicles are later re-exported to Russia. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, June 30

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East Asia

Allies learn how to bully America. America’s allies are learning that leverage over President Donald Trump may depend on showing capacity to impose costs. Taiwan fears abandonment despite US arms sales and uses its chip dominance and strategic location to stress its value. Some in Taipei consider halting chip exports during a crisis to force attention from Washington and Beijing. The approach reflects anxiety that deterrence depends less on values than coercive bargaining. The Economist, June 30

China–Japan relations sail into troubled waters. China and Japan face their harshest rupture since 1972 as Taiwan, missile deployments, regional deterrence, rare earth controls, and public hostility deepen mutual suspicion. Tokyo views China as its main strategic challenge, while Beijing frames Japan’s defense buildup as militarism. APEC diplomacy may reopen contact, but military distrust, economic security concerns, and doubts over US commitment point toward colder coexistence. Rumi Aoyama, East Asia Forum, June 30

Hong Kong's wealth crown reveals China's capital control dilemma. Hong Kong has become the world’s largest cross-border wealth management center, powered by mainland Chinese assets and demand for overseas diversification. Beijing wants the city to serve global finance and yuan internationalization, but fears capital outflows, pressure on the currency, and financial risk. Tighter controls could weaken Hong Kong’s role, limit middle-class access to global portfolios, and reveal the tension between integration and state control. Matteo Giovannini, Nikkei Asia, June 30

Southeast Asia

Thailand rolls the dice on lottery-backed pensions. Thailand’s retirement lottery links pension saving for informal workers to prize draws through digital tickets, with all spending placed into National Savings Fund accounts. The plan targets low coverage and weak saving among informal workers, using lottery habits to expand participation. Its promise depends on whether it changes existing gambling into savings or raises total lottery spending, while ethical and administrative concerns remain. Wittayarrath Puangnam, East Asia Forum, June 30

Thailand’s Blue Regime: Giving No Quarter? Thailand’s opposition says Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai Party and Senate allies form a blue regime that controls civilian power and weakens democracy. The Senate’s blue faction can shape appointments to courts and oversight bodies. Allegations of collusion, vote buying, and money laundering surround the 2024 Senate selection. The clash exposes a struggle over constitutional reform, checks and balances, and one-party dominance. Duncan McCargo, FULCRUM, June 30

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China

Chinese vessels shadow U.S.-Philippine naval drills in South China Sea near disputed shoal. Chinese naval and coast guard vessels monitored U.S.-Philippine maritime drills near Scarborough Shoal after the PLA said it dispatched ships and aircraft to the South China Sea. Philippine media reported that a Chinese frigate and three coast guard ships followed exercises involving U.S. Coast Guard, the Philippine Navy, and coast guard vessels. Beijing said outside patrols undermined regional stability, while a Philippine commander said the Chinese ships did not disrupt the activity. Albee Zhang, South China Morning Post, June 29

China conducts ground test of hypersonic ramjet that can change shape in flight. Chinese researchers tested a variable-geometry hypersonic ramjet that operated from Mach 1.8 to Mach 6 without leaking superheated gas. The engine’s moving throat adjusted within one third of a second at 1,650 degrees Celsius, using a two-layer seal with ceramic fiber and graphite packing. The breakthrough could reduce reliance on rocket boosters and support reusable hypersonic vehicles, while highlighting U.S. vulnerability in high-purity graphite supply chains. Stephen Chen, South China Morning Post, June 29

EU sets October deadline for ‘tangible results’ on China imbalances after key trade talks. The EU and China launched a ministerial-level platform to address trade imbalances, export controls, intellectual property, and WTO reform. Beijing agreed to a joint monitoring mechanism for trade flows, while EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said Brussels expects clear progress by October. The talks followed EU concern over rising Chinese imports, market-access limits, and industrial overcapacity, with Brussels warning that the status quo is unsustainable. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, June 29

Japan

China adds 20 Japan entities to dual-use item export control list. China added 20 Japanese entities, including the National Institute for Defense Studies and Mitsubishi Electric subsidiaries, to its dual-use export control list. The Commerce Ministry also placed 20 more Japanese entities on an export watch list for added scrutiny. Tokyo protested the move as unacceptable, while Beijing said the measures protect national security and respond to Japan’s alleged remilitarization. Kyodo News, June 29

Japan calls China Coast Guard moves in its EEZ near Yonaguni ‘unacceptable’. Japan said China Coast Guard vessels have asserted Beijing’s claims inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone south of Yonaguni Island and east of Taiwan. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara called the activity unacceptable and said Tokyo has repeatedly protested. The moves followed Japan-Philippines plans to begin maritime boundary talks, which China denounced as illegal and void. Jesse Johnson, The Japan Times, June 29

South Korea

South Korea exports set to grow at strongest pace in nearly 5 decades: Reuters poll. South Korean exports were forecast to rise 61% year on year in June, the strongest growth since October 1978, driven by record semiconductor shipments linked to global AI investment. Early customs data showed chip exports rising 188.4% in the first 20 days of June, with semiconductors accounting for 41.2% of total exports. Imports were also expected to rise sharply, while inflation was forecast to reach 3.2%. Hyeyoon Cho and Jihoon Lee, Reuters, June 29

Lee vows to secure chip, AI supremacy through large-scale investment. President Lee Jae Myung unveiled tripolar mega projects centered on semiconductors, physical AI, and AI data centers, including an 800 trillion-won investment plan by Samsung Electronics and SK Group. Lee said South Korea must build new semiconductor capacity in the southwest, strengthen national AI infrastructure, and mobilize public and private resources to secure long-term industrial supremacy. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, June 29

Lee’s southwestern semiconductor cluster draws corporate arm-twisting accusations. Opposition lawmakers accused President Lee Jae Myung’s government of steering Samsung Electronics and SK hynix toward a semiconductor cluster in Gwangju and South Jeolla Province. A civic group filed criminal complaints alleging abuse of authority and coercion, while the presidential office and ruling Democratic Party rejected the claims, saying the project supports national industrial strategy and future competitiveness. Bahk Eun-ji, The Korea Times, June 29

3 PPP lawmakers booked for obstructing Yoon’s arrest over martial law bid. Special counsel investigators booked People Power Party lawmakers Kim Ki-hyeon, Kwon Young-jin, and Yoon Sang-hyun for allegedly obstructing the 2025 detention of former President Yoon Suk Yeol over his failed martial law bid. Prosecutors said video showed lawmakers blocking warrant execution at the presidential residence and that the three actively challenged the arrest’s legality through public statements. Yonhap News Agency, June 29

Vientam

Vietnam, UAE seek to deepen defence cooperation. Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Phan Văn Giang said Vietnam values stronger defence cooperation with the UAE as part of broader bilateral ties. He noted the UAE’s role as Vietnam’s largest Middle East trading partner, the elevation of relations to a Comprehensive Partnership, and a 2025 Letter of Intent on defence cooperation. Giang proposed defence dialogue mechanisms and expanded collaboration in training, UN peacekeeping, military medicine, logistics, non-traditional security, and multilateral coordination. Vietnam News, June 29

Vietnam wishes to elevate ties with Canada to new level: PM. Prime Minister Lê Minh Hưng told Canadian Ambassador Jim Nickel that Vietnam wants to deepen its Comprehensive Partnership with Canada and raise ties to a new level. Hưng cited regular high-level exchanges, two-way trade of $8.6 billion in 2025, defence cooperation, education links, and multilateral coordination, while calling for more Canadian investment in energy, the green economy, and the circular economy, along with stronger cooperation in AI, quantum technology, semiconductors, and higher education. Vietnam News, June 29

Thailand

Pheu Thai delays its charter bill. Pheu Thai will delay submitting its constitutional amendment bill until the next parliamentary session, although the draft is complete and MP signatures are being collected. Party leader Julapun Amornvivat said the postponement followed an opposition request to push back charter deliberations. Sutin Klungsang said the party aims to ensure the amendment process succeeds and noted that recent Constitutional Court explanations suggested an elected Constitution Drafting Assembly would not conflict with the court’s ruling. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, June 29

Finance minister presents B3.79 trillion deficit budget to parliament. Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas presented Thailand’s 3.79-trillion-baht fiscal 2027 budget, saying a deficit remains necessary to support the economy. He warned that fixed spending is rising, investment budgets are shrinking, and public debt reached 66.4% of GDP as of March 31. Opposition lawmakers said revenue is insufficient, investment is increasingly loan-dependent, and public debt could breach the 70% ceiling without tax reform and stronger national revenue. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, June 29

Cambodia

Over 6 million of Myanmar’s children not going to school: report. More than 6.3 million school-aged children in Myanmar are not attending school in the 2026-27 academic year, according to ISP-Myanmar data. Enrollment has fallen to 6.7 million from 9.7 million before the coup, with poverty, conflict, displacement, missing records, and security threats limiting access. The NUG operates schools in resistance-held areas, but airstrikes, artillery attacks, weak higher-education pathways, and low education spending continue to deepen the crisis. Phoe Tar, The Irrawaddy, June 29

Philippines

Philippines leads the world in rush to solar as power prices soar. Philippine households are rapidly adopting rooftop solar as electricity prices rise and outages persist. Solar panel imports reached $407 million in the three months through May, up 145% from a year earlier, while installer inquiries surged. High power tariffs have shortened payback periods, but high upfront costs, component shortages, quality issues, and loan restrictions continue to limit access for many households. Sudarshan Varadhan, Ruth Chai, and Adrian Portugal, Reuters, June 28

PH to still use diplomacy in dealing with China. Malacañang said the Philippines will continue handling disputes with China through diplomacy despite Beijing’s provocations in contested waters and criticism of Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. Presidential Communications Office Undersecretary Claire Castro said relations with China remain good and defended Teodoro’s statements as part of his official duties. She said President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s directive is to protect Philippine rights and interests through diplomatic means. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, June 29

Indonesia

Indonesia no longer co-producer for Korea's KF-21 fighter jet. Indonesia will shift from co-producing South Korea’s KF-21 fighter jet to directly procuring the aircraft from Seoul. Defense Ministry spokesman Rico Ricardo Sirait said Jakarta reviewed program effectiveness, technology transfer, economic value, and domestic defense needs before changing the scheme. The number of jets to be purchased remains under assessment and will depend on Air Force requirements and Indonesia’s spending capacity. Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta Globe, June 29

Bangladesh

Ousted Bangladesh PM Hasina vows to return home this year. Sheikh Hasina vowed to return to Bangladesh this year despite a death sentence handed down in absentia over the 2024 unrest. She denounced the ruling as illegal, unconstitutional, and politically motivated, accused the judiciary of political revenge, and urged Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s government to lift the ban on the Awami League, withdraw cases against its leaders, release political prisoners, and allow peaceful political activity. Ruma Paul, Reuters, June 29

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan’s Senate holds final session as country prepares for transition to unicameral parliament. Kazakhstan’s Senate held its final session on June 29, ending the upper house’s 30-year history before parliament’s powers terminate on July 1 under the new Constitution. Elections for the new unicameral Kurultai are scheduled for August. Senate Chair Maulen Ashimbayev said the chamber held more than 890 plenary sessions, adopted over 3,500 laws, organized more than 60 hearings and over 3,000 events, and sent about 3,000 inquiries to the government. He said the Kurultai should bring in more new faces, young people, women, and regional representatives. Dana Omirgazy, The Astana Times, June 29

Kazakhstan, Georgia sign joint statement establishing strategic partnership. Kazakhstan and Georgia established a strategic partnership after talks between President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze on political, economic, transport, and humanitarian cooperation. Tokayev cited Kazakhstan’s more than $500 million in investment in Georgia, planned higher oil shipments through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, and deeper work on the Middle Corridor. The sides also exchanged memorandums on culture, AI and digital development, and tourism. Dana Omirgazy, The Astana Times, June 29

Kazakhstan joins U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative to advance AI economy. Kazakhstan joined the Pax Silica initiative and AI Opportunity Partnership to expand cooperation in artificial intelligence, investment, technology transfer, semiconductors, battery production, and critical minerals processing. Deputy Prime Minister Zhaslan Madiyev said participation will support an AI-driven economy, while U.S. officials highlighted Kazakhstan’s mineral reserves, Middle Corridor position, and modernization agenda. The initiative focuses on secure supply chains for AI, energy, data centers, advanced manufacturing, and workforce development. The Astana Times, June 29

Uzbekistan

Chinese conglomerate secures multi-billion green-energy deal in Uzbekistan. Sinopec Engineering Group reached an agreement with Allied Biofuels to conduct engineering, design, and construction work on a $6.1 billion biorefinery in Uzbekistan. The facility is expected to produce more than 400,000 tons annually of sustainable aviation fuel, electro-SAF, and renewable diesel at full capacity. Sinopec will oversee the project from planning and technical design through construction and handover. Sean Kearin, Eurasianet, June 29

Kyrgyzstan

New Kyrgyzstan ship registry raises oversight questions. Kyrgyzstan is preparing to register merchant vessels under its national flag after lawmakers adopted a Merchant Shipping Code and related legislation. The government says the registry could generate revenue and give Kyrgyz ships international recognition, but lawmakers raised concerns over oversight, fraudulent listings, and the risk that Kyrgyz-flagged vessels could be linked to sanctioned goods. The registry’s credibility will depend on strict checks of ownership, insurance, safety records, and trade links. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, June 29

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East Asia

When the Evidence Base on China Becomes a Policy Risk. Europe’s China policy depends on reliable evidence as Beijing narrows access to data through security laws, database restrictions, geoblocking, changing statistics, and research constraints. De-risking, investment screening, export controls, supply-chain mapping, and research security all require granular China knowledge. Unequal access could widen gaps among EU states. Evidence resilience needs source preservation, triangulation, legal safeguards, shared repositories, digital training, and clear confidence levels in policy briefings. Stefan Messingschlager, China Observers, June 29

Latin America: Can US Hard Power Stop China’s Long Game? US pressure has produced setbacks for China in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Venezuela, Panama’s port seizures, and new regional security initiatives. Beijing’s strategy rests on multipolar influence, Xi Jinping’s forum diplomacy, expanding trade, infrastructure finance, and policy coordination. Brazil, Argentina, and Chile still seek Chinese markets, credit, and technology. Washington’s hard-power focus may push governments to hedge through discreet engagement with China. Lye Liang Fook, ThinkChina, June 29

How Turkey Arms China’s Rivals Without Angering Beijing. Turkey expands defense cooperation with Indo-Pacific states that contest China while protecting trade with Beijing. Ankara uses joint production, components, technology transfer, and dual-use frameworks instead of high-profile platform transfers. Japan, Australia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Taiwan show its growing reach. China tolerates this balance because Turkey supports Eurasian trade routes, BRICS ambitions, and logistics links, while rare earth dependence gives Beijing leverage. Emanuele Scimia, ThinkChina, June 29

Southeast Asia

Vietnam’s Potential Economic Lessons for North Korea. Renewed Vietnam North Korea contacts highlight how Vietnam’s Doi Moi reforms may inform Pyongyang’s economic choices. Vietnam reduced dependence on Soviet support through market reforms, foreign investment, and trade with former adversaries, while North Korea retained central planning and suffered after Soviet fuel and aid ended. Limited special economic zones, market crackdowns, sanctions, and reluctance toward Western engagement still constrain North Korea’s growth potential. Clark Pascoe, 38 North, June 29

Johor and Negeri Sembilan State Elections Are Double Trouble for Anwar. Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections will test Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Madani government, Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional, and opposition Perikatan Nasional. Coalition partners are competing against one another, intensifying ethnic appeals and exposing divisions after PKR defections. Johor measures BN strength under Onn Hafiz Ghazi, while Negeri Sembilan poses a greater risk for PH. Losses could pressure Anwar toward an early general election. Bridget Welsh, East Asia Forum, June 29

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